Threat Matrix 2022

Welcome to the Threat Matrix 2022. Keep up to date on the multiple threats to our country and life.

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Globalism / Great Reset -

Rumbling around in the tinfoil hat realm (though like wuhan rumblings, many did come true) are discussions on how the GGR crowd is going to use the global economic shock waves from the Ukraine war to force its economic agenda. A concerning line of discussion is the growing threat of global food shortages due to the war, lack of fertilizers/chemicals and weather conditions. The axiom of he who controls the food, controls the world” is in play.
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Wuhan virus -

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has removed tens of thousands of deaths linked to COVID-19, including nearly a quarter of deaths it had listed in those under 18 years old.
The health agency quietly made the change on its data tracker website on March 15.

A New Zealand court has defended the rights of Christians to refuse to receive an abortion-tainted COVID shot on the grounds that it constitutes a violation of their conscience, acknowledging that the objection to abortion is “grounded in a core principle” of Christianity.
The High Court of New Zealand ruled on February 25 that a government mandate ordering police officers and New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) personnel to receive a COVID jab in order to carry out work was an “unlawful” impediment on officers’ “free and democratic” rights.
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Biden / Harris watch -

More RUMINT that biden/harris handlers are trying to figure out how to dump them. biden has become a boat anchor with 60% unfavorable ratings. harris is a dumpster fire, lowering the collective IQ where ever she gets sent.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

Antifa in Seattle called for violence at an upcoming conservative “March for Freedom” rally on March 26. They view it as an opportunity for revenge. Some of the antifa flyers call for a shooting.

The Florida cell of violent antifa group, the Youth Liberation Front, has put out a call to action in the state to oppose the anti-child grooming bill. The YLF is encouraging vandalism & “anything else.” The group called for & carried out serious violence during the 2020 riots.

OBSERVATION - This part of a growing trend of advocating violence I’ve noticed. Seems the time of relative dormancy is ending and spurred on with the impending elections they are going to come out of their holes and start attacking people and breaking things. Call for lethal violence is very concerning.
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China -

biden didn’t sway Xi in regards to Ukraine/Russia.

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North Korea -

JCS has stated that North Korea fired four rockets into the Yellow Sea from MLRS systems in the South Pyongan Province.
SK’s National Security Council held an emergency meeting. The reason for such activity is unknown.
OBSERVATION - SK’s new govt leadership said they would be more confrontative of NK, this meeting may be the start of a response to the ongoing NK missile tests.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Ukraine still stands after entering the 4th week of war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Russian assaults across the board have all stalled out.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 100% of the combat force Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, It is becoming more and more apparent Russia has been scrambling to get more combat forces into theater and support those already committed.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Putin continues to reinforce his control of domestic media, attempting to obscure high casualties amid fierce resistance encountered in his invasion of Ukraine, according to a British Defense Ministry intelligence estimate.

Russian propaganda and the hypersonic missile -
As I noted yesterday, the missile is a modified Iskander-M - not a grand wonder weapon. However, OSINT analysts on the net picked apart Moscow’s target claims in a spectacular way. Russia released a video of the missile strike allegedly taken by an Orban 10 drone near Ivano-Frankiivsk in western Ukraine. So far the story holds as there is a military facility in the general area. However, as analysts looked closer, red flags were raised. First there was no evidence of a warehouse in the video, it appeared to be an open field near a farm. Second, the Orban 10 drone taking the picture doesn’t have the range or image quality to monitor a far western Ukraine target. Satellite photos were reviewed of the alleged target area and nothing matching the released image matched. Then the image was geo matched and it turns out to actually a farm in far Eastern Ukraine. Russia probably did fire the missile, its true target is yet to be confirmed.

More propaganda, trying to set up a false flag event? Russian Ministry of defense accuse Ukraine: in preparations of attack on western diplomats in L’viv, in planting explosives at cylinders with ammonium and chlorine in Sumy, deploying cylinders with chemicals to school in Kotlarovo village of Mykolaiv region
OBSERVATION - Russia has been trying to raise the threat of an Ukrainan NBC event the past couple of weeks. Many believe to justify their own NBC attack to break the current stalemate.

Russia still trying to reinforce the war effort -
- Putin transfers troops from Far East to Belarus. The troops are being moved from Vladivostok and Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky
- Footage of military equipment being loaded onto trains in Abkhazia In NE Georgia published.

Economic Impacts -
- The Australian government has imposed a ban on exports of aluminum, aluminum ores, and bauxite to Russia said Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 29th show a warming trend into the 50’s . Rain is forecast in the upcoming week. Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions,.

RUNINT -
Ukraine sees a high risk of an attack launched from Belarus on the Volyn region, which lies to the north of the western city of Lviv. It was not immediately clear whether Ukraine saw the threat of an attack on Volyn from Russian forces or the Belarusian military.
Great number of ‘reports’ out there of demoralized Russian troops, from intercepted radio comms as well as POWs. Reports even that the will shoot themselves to avoid combat. Likely a large part of this is Ukraine propaganda, but there may be some fire within this smoke.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

The British defense ministry said the Ukrainian Air Force and air defense forces are “continuing to effectively defend Ukrainian airspace.”
“Russia has failed to gain control of the air and is largely relying on stand-off weapons launched from the relative safety of Russian airspace to strike targets within Ukraine” With that said, air raid sirens sounded across Ukrainian cities on Sunday and Russia’s defense ministry said cruise missiles were launched from ships in the Black Sea and Caspian Sea, as well as hypersonic missiles from Crimean airspace.
ALSO - there are indicators that Russian air sorties have been declining since the first of March. Folks are looking see if weather conditions are to blame, but initially, it should not have been an impediment.

Russian naval activity - Four vessels shelled Mariupol yesterday. Russia is apparently now using the P-800 Oniks supersonic anti-ship missile against ground targets.
A 6th general officer taken down!. Commander’s deputy for military-political work of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet Andrey Paliy was taken down this week. Not totally sure but i think this may be an equivalent to fleet’s political commissar?

Russian ground forces remain essentially stalled and combat ineffective on all fronts. The Crimea front has suffered some severe set backs, see below. Ukrainian counter attacks have been largely successful inflicting more Russian personnel and equipment losses and forcing Russians to pull back in many sectors. US and UK intelligence sources note that Ukrainian command and control is effectively coordinating combat operations across the country.

Losses of 6 Russian generals - as well as senior commanders of combat regiments and battalions - has been unprecedented. This has a definite impact on Russian planning and combat operations as lesser ‘qualified’ leaders have to move up to fill the losses.

Kyiv front -
Russian forces completely stalled and facing counter attacks by Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian forces claim that they have constructed two defensive rings around Kyiv and are preparing to build a third.
Continued rumors that Russia is still preparing for a new push on Kyiv are floating around. Evidence on the ground is that with the pause in the Russian offensive, attack axes towards Kyiv will be extremely difficult to force and Ukraine forces well dug in. Bottom line is that Russia in this and combined with other fronts (Northern and Northeastern) never had sufficient forces to accomplish the encirclement of Kyiv, let alone capture it. Seems Russia is trying to push close enough to start using its artillery to bombard the city in a war of attrition.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Russian forces are redirecting their efforts to encircle Chernihiv and are continuing to hammer the city with a lot of artillery and bombs. However, in doing so Russian forces continue to take heavy casualties. Ukrainian forces continue to hold Russian forces away from advancing towards Kyiv.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Continued Russian efforts to isolate Sumy and Khariv, but sustaining heavy casualties in doing so. Overnight, both cities faced more intense bombing and artillery attacks on its residential areas of the cities proper as well as surrounding communities. An offensive pushing south still appears to have been stopped at Izium although latest reports are the situation is still fluid. The apparent goal of this move was to try to cut off Ukraine forces fighting against the separatists in the Dombass region. This would correspond to a similar effort out of the Crimea front to capture Kryvyi Rih.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Russian/Chechen forces have pushed into the central part of Mariupol as intense fighting has broken out overnight. Russian forces have apparently stopped an Ukraine assault to relieve the city and Ukraine military officials admit there is no military solution to the siege.
More deliberate Russian attacks on buildings sheltering civilians, with hundreds more potentially buried and killed. There are now unconfirmed reports from Mariupol of the Russian army forcibly moving thousands of Mariupol residents to Russia. The civilians were allegedly taken to camps where Russians checked their phones and documents and then forcibly moved some of them to remote cities in Russia.
OBSERVATION - Russian actions are going well beyond war crimes levels in Mariupol. Sadly those directing the bombing on civilians and forced displacement will never come to trial. Mariupol will not be able to hold out much longer and the presence of Chechen thugs will make live for the survivors a literal hell.

Crimea Front -
Ukraine counter offensive towards Kherson and resistance to the north appears to have stopped a Russian offensive towards Kryvyi Rih, I didn’t include the objective city in yesterday’s post as the situation wasn’t totally clear to me yesterday. The move on Kryvyi Rih is important to Russia as a way to isolate Zaporizhiya and Dnipro from the west. Given the Ukraine counter offensive pushing on Kherson, it is unlikely that he Russian force will have adequate numbers to surround or take Kryvyi Rih. In fact, the Russian force is facing being cut off from resupply.

Russian assault on Odessa seems to be put on the back burner given the personnel/equipment losses as well as losing key terrain.
Russian naval vessels are sporadically attacking the Odessa area, with reports that they are attempting to use anti-ship missiles to target land targets.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -

Ukrainian counter offensives gaining success on the Crimea front - essentially shutting down a ground encirclement of Odessa and thwarting an amphibious operation. Russian forces will attempt to seal off key cities and then rubble them.

The winter thaw has created muddy off road conditions. However, the real mud season hasn’t really hit yet, spring rains will make things ever worse. Russia is running out of time to exploit limited off road conditions as they will get worse over the next couple months.

IMHO the introduction to hypersonic missiles will have little impact on the tactical situation. Russia has announced they fired more of them overnight. Use of this modified standoff missile - expensive and few - suggests continued fear of Moscow to fly over Ukraine proper. Aircraft losses have bit Russia hard and the RuAF is reluctant to support ground operations.

Barring a significant event to free up Russian ground forces to maneuver against Ukraine defenders, I see Russian forces being forced into a more defensive posture , making them vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks. They will have to pull more combat forces away from the front to protect logistics convoys, further reducing effectiveness.

Air attacks will continue with likely greater intensity, relying on cruse missiles to target residential areas of major cities like Kyiv, Mariupol, Khariv, etc. Russian close air support will continue to suffer at the hands of the abundant, shoulder fired SAMs that take several jets out every day as well as numerous helicopters.

The most serious concern is if Russia decides to directly attack western supply operations. Rhetoric from Moscow increasingly suggests that Russia may attack NATO countries supplying arms and munitions.

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Belarus -

11 employees of the Belarusian embassy left Ukraine. The last employee crossed the border yesterday

Weakly confirmed reports of Belarusian partisans sabotaging signals, switches and other equipment to disrupt the delivery of #Russia|n military hardware by rail to the borders of Ukraine.
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Poland -

Poland has proposed the EU enforce a total ban on trade with Russia

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Europe / NATO General -

The British Government has announced that they will Not Normalize Relations with the Russian Government after the Russo-Ukrainian War if President Putin is still in Power even if it he is placed into a Lower Position in Government,

The first units deploying the Patriot air defense system have started arriving from NATO partner countries in Slovakia and the deployment will continue in the coming days, Slovak Defence Minister Jaroslav Nad said on Facebook on Sunday.
The system will be operated by German and Dutch troops and will initially be deployed at the Sliac airport in central Slovakia to help reinforce defense of NATO’s eastern flank.
NOTE - This frees up S300s to go to Ukraine.

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Wuhan virus -

Preliminary data from the federal Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS) database for just the first two months of 2022 suggests an alarming spike in heart problems possibly stemming from the COVID-19 vaccines.
On March 11, The Blaze senior editor Daniel Horowitz highlighted the fact that 11,289 cases of pericarditis/myocarditis after COVID vaccination were reported to VAERS between January 1 and February 25 of this year, which is already 47% of the 24,177 reports for the same submitted in all of 2021.

The nation is preparing to celebrate what has become a beloved annual holiday: Two Weeks To Slow The Spread Day, to be held in March every year. (BB)
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Economy -

The Biden administration is finally moving forward with re-starting the leasing of federal land for oil and gas drilling. The Interior Department made the announcement after a federal appeals court ruled in favor of the administration last week. The “social cost of carbon” value is factored in measuring the cost of climate change in the drilling process. The court ruled that the administration can use a higher calculation value of per ton of greenhouse gases emitted in the federal decision–making process.
OBSERVATION - It will be month, even years before a lot of this oil reaches the gas pumps.

On March 14, with the recent energy price spike reaching crisis levels, Biden gave a speech to a DNC fundraiser in Washington where he doubled down on his fossil-fuel-suppression promises.
“Imagine where we’d be right now if, in fact, Europe was in fact energy- free of fossil fuels and was — we were in a situation where — (coughs) — excuse me — where — where we — it was all renewables. It’d be a different world. And — and so, we have to get off the dependency on fossil fuels . . . . I mean, literally, not figuratively — meaning both here [U.S.] and there [Europe]. And the dependence of Europe on fossil fuels is — way exceeds any dependence we have. And so, it’s not an immediate solution to the crisis, but it’s all about the future if we were to change the fossil fuel dependency.”

The Green Markets North American Fertilizer Index, already high, jumped 16% last Friday. Urea, a major fertilizer ingredient, went up 22%. Potash, another major ingredient (Russia is the top producer), increased 34% in Brazil, the world’s leading fertilizer importer. The price for standard “starter fertilizer” 10-34-0 is up 49% from a year ago and likely to go much higher.
Bloomberg analyst Alexis Maxwell calls it “a slow-moving disaster.”
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Invasion of Illegals -

Yuma Sector Border Patrol agents apprehended a group of 100 migrants who illegally crossed the border earlier this week. The migrants came to the U.S. from ten different countries. So far this year, Yuma Sector agents apprehended nearly 120,000 migrants. Agents apprehended 20,329 of those just in February, the latest month for which statistics are available from CBP officials.
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Biden / Harris watch -

Hunter Biden laptop coverup scandal has suddenly gained traction among journalists that just a couple years ago called it a fake Russian planted story. Now liberal flagship NYT is reporting on a growing federal investigation into Hunter’s finances. Some are suggesting that this sudden ‘interest’ into Hunter may well turn as a means to force FJB to step down. Remember, these are democrats making this call.

Biden will reportedly Meet with Polish President Duda in the Capital of Warsaw on Friday after his meetings this week with NATO, The European Union, and The Group of Seven in addition to other Regional Partners, the Subject of these Meetings will be Ukraine
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POLITICAL FRONT -

Ketanji Brown Jackson (KBJ) faces senate hearings today. Her primary qualification is she’s a black woman.

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North Korea -

North Korea slams Australia, Japan for ‘extremely dangerous’ military buildup, especially sub capabilities

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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Ukraine still stands now entering the 4th week of war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Could be seeing the start of Russia trying to switch the momentum via a series of attacks.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 100% of the combat force Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, It is becoming more and more apparent Russia has been scrambling to get more combat forces into theater and support those already committed.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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More propaganda, trying to set up a false flag event? Russian Ministry of defense accuse Ukraine: in preparations of attack on western diplomats in L’viv, in planting explosives at cylinders with ammonium and chlorine in Sumy, deploying cylinders with chemicals to school in Kotlarovo village of Mykolaiv region
OBSERVATION - See discussion under Ukraine - North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) Russian artillery did strike the Sumy facility and release ammonia.

Russia tells U.S. ambassador that ties on verge of being severed - Reuters

Russia still trying to reinforce the war effort -
With troops coming from as far as Georgian breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the Russian forces may have scrounged up to 40 battalion tactical groups.
OBSERVATION - The combat readiness of these forces is questionable and there will still be a delay before they can enter battle.
ALSO OF NOTE - Withdrawal of forces from these contested regions may encourage Georgia to try to retake them.

Economic Impacts -
- All 4 major international oilfield servicing firms have now left Russia: Halliburton, Schlumberger, Baker Hughes and Weatherford International. Russia will struggle with exploration and servicing of fields without them.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 29th show a warming trend into the 50’s . Rain is forecast in the upcoming week. Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions,.

RUNINT -
Partially confirmed - There are reports a combined detachment of 6th Guards Lvov Tank Regiment (from 90th Tank Division) has been destroyed & the commander, Col. A. Zakharov, is KIA.
331st Airborne VDV Regiment has apparently lost either a BTG or itself been annihilated, depending on the source. Among the confirmed KIA is the colonel, the regiment’s deputy commander, at least one battalion major & 2 lieutenants.
OBSERVATION - I’ve haven’t spent much time on units being lost, but these reports show how hard the russian forces have been hit. Some estimate that as many as 40 BTG out of an approximately 120 they started with have been taken out action.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Evidence has built up that Belarus may be ready to enter the war. Large convoys of Belarusian military vehicles have been observed heading for Brest near the Polish border over the past week. The equipment is marked with an identification mark - a red square. Videos capture unloading of a train with equipment in Luninets (Brest region). All remaining Belorussian diplomatic staff have left Ukraine and soldiers began wearing red armbands. As a result, General Staff of the Ukrainian army believe a Belarusian offensive in the Volyn region in north-western Ukraine. An attack is expected in the next two days. “The risk is assessed as high”

ANALYSIS - An assault on this axis toward Lviv makes sense as it is developing into a staging area for foreign forces fighting for Ukraine, back up government and transfer of arms and munitions to the fight in the east. So far, Russia’s influence in in western Ukraine has been limited to cruse and ballistic missiles. Boots on the ground could pose a greater threat and divert men and equipment from the east. Combat effectiveness of Belarusian forces is highly questionable, being assessed by the west as one of the poorest trained and equipped of eastern European armies. I see very little chance of significant success of such an attack by Belarusian forces but freezing some Ukraine assets and forcing them to look rearward as Russia steps up attacks in the east may be the goal.

Russia has sharpened its intelligence teeth -
Several incidents, cumulating in the missile strike of a shopping mall in Lviv overnight show that Russia intelligence has finally stepped up and is providing actionable targeting data. Earlier strikes over the past few days include areas training and integrating foreign fighters - suspected cell phone tap. The Lviv strike brought initial questions of why target a shopping mall, until imagery came out overnight as well showing Ukraine military vehicles parked within the building targeted (imagery only a few days old). So far, its been Ukraine winning the intelligence battle, but recent strikes show that OPSEC and SIGSEC cannot get lax.

Overnight things on the ground got rough for Ukraine as Russians forces have made gains on several fronts, see specifics below.

Kyiv front -
Russia has managed push close enough to start using its artillery to bombard the city in a war of attrition. Cruse missiles struck portions of the town overnight. Flooded terrain in the vicinity of Irpin have rendered about half of the front unnavigable.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Russian forces appear to have partially encircled Chernihiv and are continuing to hammer the city with a lot of artillery and bombs. Russian forces also appear to be trying to bypass Chernihiv to push towards Kyiv.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Continued Russian efforts to isolate Sumy and Khariv, but sustaining heavy casualties in doing so. Overnight the mayor or Sumy reported that an ammonia tank in an industrial area on the northern edge of was damaged by Russian artillery fire and has created a hazard zone about 5km in diameter. Wind currently is away from the city. Russia propaganda had been claiming over the past several days that Ukraine was going to launch its own chemical attack from this very same facility.
Russian forces are pressing an attack northward from Okhtyrka towards Lebedyn, a move that could isolate Sumy.
Also increased Russian attacks southwards towards the northern Dombass region with a lot of air support (first apparent coordinated ground support). Appears to be attempting to join up with a parallel push northward out of Dombass.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Things have become desperate in Mariupol with intense street fighting ongoing. Some are beginning to liken it to Stalingrad.
Russia’s Defense Ministry says Ukraine had until 5am on March 21 to surrender the besieged city of Mariupol, adding it’ll let residents and troops who lay down arms leave. Anyone left behind “with the bandits” will “face a military tribunal.” via RIA
Ukraine rejected Russia’s demand to surrender Mariupol
Russia is being accused of forcing refugees to go into Russia and are” housing” them in what Ukrainian (propaganda) call ‘concentration camps). Russia has made a precedent of concentrating civilians in a similar manner in both Chechnya and Syria.
Observers/analysts see a deliberate Russian brutality towards Mariupol on two points. 1) Mariupol resisted separatists in 2014 and Russia wants to punish them for that and 2) surrender of the city could free up as many as 3 BTGs to be redirected in a northward assault out of Dombass into the heart of eastern Ukraine defenses.
Russian attacks have been supported by naval gunfire.

Increased attacks northward out of Dombass region towards Lysychansk in a potential effort to link up with southward movements from the northern front.

Russian officials confirmed that the Deputy Commander of the Black Sea Fleet for military-political affairs, Captain of the 1st Rank Andrei Paly (born and raised in Kyiv) was killed in Mariupol.

OBSERVATION - Russian actions are going well beyond war crimes levels in Mariupol. Sadly those directing the bombing on civilians and forced displacement will never come to trial. Mariupol will not be able to hold out much longer and the presence of Chechen thugs will make life for the survivors a literal hell.

Crimea Front -
Russian offensive towards Kryvyi Rih still being contested by Ukraine forces.
Ukraine forces continue their offensive towards Kherson. Civilian casualties reported after Russian troops opened fire on protest in Kherson.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -

Overnight actions indicate Russia is finally trying to restore the initiative by conducting offensive actions in several fronts. I am concerned about attacks in four areas.
- First being Russian bypassing and tentatively surrounding Chernihiv. Ukrainian forces in this area have been successful in taking/keeping pressure off of Kyiv.
- Second area is the area between North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) and the Dombass Front. This region is logistically far from Ukraine resupply and likely has low stocks of ATGMs and ADA MANPAD systems, making Russian attacks more of a combined arms action than seen elsewhere so far. Attacks here may be intended to join up with a push being made to Kryvyi Rih and beyond.
- Third is the battle for Mariupol. This is developing into a Stalingrad stand that has the potential to badly maul Russian forces and kill thousands of civilians. The fight will go on as long as Ukraine has the energy and stamina. I can’t see the city holding out for much longer, but then they’ve been holding out for several weeks. Russian / chechen brutality will be at the highest here and Ukraine will respond with a no holds barred, take no prisoners. As I noted above, some thing that the surrender of Mariupol could free up as many as 3 BTGs. This would stress Ukraine forces holding the line.
- Fourth and finally, the Russia push on Kryvyi Rih. A successful push in this direction could be the start of a greater encirclement of Ukraine forces facing the Dombass front.

The overall key to any Russian success in these areas are Russian planning and logistics. The first three appear to have secured their logistic lines better than other areas. The Kryvyi Rih push faces getting cut off by Ukraine counter attack toward Kherson. Do these russian forces have the leadership and coordination to pull this out? That remains to be seen, but if they’ve been restocked, they could push about 90 miles before logistics issues strike again.

WILDCARD - Belarus invasion in far west Ukraine.

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Belarus -

See discussion under Ukraine
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Europe / NATO General -

The EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell says that what is happening in Mariupol is a “massive war crime”.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told NBC’s “Meet the Press” that the meeting in Brussels is a show of unity intended to send a message to Putin:
“We haven’t yet decided on the exact format of that summit. It will take place on Thursday...with President Biden and all the other leaders,” Stoltenberg said. “And I think the meeting of all heads of state and government in NATO will provide us yet another platform to demonstrate our unity, our support to Ukraine, but also our readiness to protect and defend all NATO allies.

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Israel -

Israeli defense sources report several intel warnings that suggest Iran intends to carry out attacks via air, at sea & on land.
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Saudi Arabia -

The Biden administration has transferred a significant number of Patriot antimissile interceptors to Saudi Arabia, fulfilling an urgent request from the kingdom that has become a point of contention in relations between Washington and Riyadh, according to reports.
Senior US officials told reporters on Sunday that the weapons systems were sent to Saudi Arabia in recent weeks, which the kingdom had been requesting since late last year to fend off missile and drone attacks by Yemen’s Houthi group

The Saudi-led coalition said early on Sunday that Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi group launched missile and drone strikes on energy and water desalination facilities in the kingdom that caused some material damage but no deaths.

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Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -

Taliban IEA (Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan) government is forming an army. This force won’t be as large as the former IRA (Islamic Republic of Afghanistan) force, which had a paper strength of 300,000 and was subsidized by the Americans.

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Globalism / Great Reset -

biden - “You know we are in an inflection point, I believe, in the world economy” he said, “Not just the economy, the world. It occurs every three or four generations. As one of the top military people said to me in a secure meeting the other day, 60 million people died between 1900 and 1946 and since then we established a liberal world order and that hadn’t happened in a long while. Lot of people dying [now], but nowhere near the chaos. And now’s the time when things are shifting. There’s gonna be a new world order out there, and we’ve gotta lead it. And we’ve gotta unite the rest of the world in doing it.
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Wuhan virus -

Biden regime’s DOJ apparently needs to hire at least four new tort lawyers to help with vaccine injury cases against HHS — according to a new job posting on the federal government’s official hiring site USAJOBS.

The BA.2 variant has caused a rise of COVD-19 cases in Europe and experts say a similar pattern may be coming to the U.S. And the most vulnerable group are those over 65.

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Economy -

The Biden administration backtracked on reports that it is resuming the federal oil and gas leasing program in light of a recent appeals court decision.
On Friday, Reuters reported that the Department of the Interior (DOI), the agency tasked with overseeing the leasing program, was planning to resume the previously-delayed program. But a DOI spokesperson pushed back on the report, saying it overstated the administration’s position that it would begin planning the next steps, not that it had already resumed the program.
“The article overstates our next steps (we did not say we were resuming leasing but instead the planning),” Melissa Schwartz, the Interior spokesperson, told the Daily Caller News Foundation in an email.

Powell said Monday that “inflation is much too high’ and pledged to take “necessary steps” to bring prices under control. He noted rate hikes could go from the traditional 25 basis point moves to more aggressive 50 basis point increases if necessary. The comments come less than a week after the Fed raised interest rates for the first time since 2018.
OBSERVATION - This more aggressive view reflects the stance I reported a few days ago where St. Louis Federal Reserve president James Bullard on Friday called for a dramatic increase in the Fed’s overnight lending rate.

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Strategic Activity / Deployments -

The United States will deploy a Stryker armored-vehicle infantry company for a NATO battle group being established in Bulgaria as the Western alliance moves to shore up its eastern flank in the face of Russian aggression in the region. The announcement came during a March 19 joint news conference with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Bulgarian Prime Minister Kiril Petkov. “The USA agreed to provide a Stryker company. This is a strong sign to all of our allies in NATO,” Petkov said.

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Cyber Warfare -

Biden says there is “evolving intelligence” that Russia is exploring options for potential cyberattacks against U.S., urges private sector to harden their cyber defenses immediately - statement If Russia launches a cyber attack it will likely either target infrastructure, logistical capabilities, or financial services.
OBSERVATION - This warning has been out there for over a month now. Given Putin’s increasing frustration and desperation over the progress of the Ukraine operation, he may use a cyber attack to strike back at the US and other countries supporting Ukraine.
US policy is that such would be a direct act of war.
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Japan -
Russian Foreign Ministry: Russia exits talks to negotiate a peace treaty with Japan. Revoking visa-free regime for Japanese citizens at southern Kuril islands. Exits dialogue on southern Kuril islands

Japan reacted angrily on Tuesday after Russia withdrew from peace treaty talks with Japan and froze joint economic projects related to the disputed Kuril islands because of sanctions imposed by Tokyo over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Russia and Japan have still not formally ended World War Two hostilities because of the standoff over islands just off Japan’s northernmost island of Hokkaido, known in Russia as the Kurils and in Japan as the Northern Territories. The islands were seized by the Soviet Union at the end of World War Two.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Ukraine still stands now entering the 4th week of war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Could be seeing the start of Russia trying to switch the momentum via a series of attacks.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 100% of the combat force that Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, It is becoming more and more apparent Russia has been scrambling to get more combat forces into theater and support those already committed.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********

The US has been unable to determine if Russia has designated a top, theatre-wide military commander responsible for leading the war in Ukraine. Without a top commander on the ground in or near Ukraine, units from different Russian military districts operating in different parts of Ukraine appear to be competing for resources rather than coordinating their efforts, per two US defense officials.
US officials also note that Russian high command have been relying on unsecure comms methods. Reportedly special ‘teams’ have been sent to address this.
It has already been confirmed that at lower statical levels Russian units are using off the shelf radios and cell phones that are insecure.
OBSERVATION - Both sides have exploited unsecure comms - so far Ukraine has been more successful at it. Early war reports indicated that smaller Russian tactical units were unable to maintain comms with higher headquarters - leading to tactical blunders. So far it appears that this hasn’t been sufficiently remedied.
If armies are ‘competing for resources’ then it is very apparent that Russian operations are going to breakdown quickly.

RUMINT -
I classify as such since the claim has been made that the site was hacked. Komsomolskaya Pravda, a pro-Kremlin tabloid, reportedly”leaked” Russian MOD casualty figures, 9,861 KIA, 16,153 WIA. The article was pulled shortly thereafter, however the numbers mirror US/UK estimates. Ukraine says there have been 15,000 Russian casualties.
MORE RUMINT - Some Chechen units have to some extent have been pulled out due to high casualties.

Russia still trying to reinforce the war effort -
- Russia has deployed more ground forces in southern Belarus, just 18 miles from Ukraine’s border, per overhead imagery in the Belorussian city of Dublin. (source imagery - Maxar)
NOTE - These are likely forces that have been brought in from Eastern Military districts and being assembled there to link up with equipment before committed to the fight. Location provides access to the Kyiv front sector.
- Russia has used roughly 75 percent of its battalion tactical group capacity in Ukraine according to a senior U.S. defense official
Russia has also committed more than 60 percent of fixed wing and rotary wing capability into the fight in Ukraine, the official said.
NOTE - The 75% level was identified prior to the start of the war.

Economic Impacts -
- Major Russian tank factory is shut down due to lack of parts.
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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 29th show a warming trend into the 50’s . Rain is forecast in the upcoming week. Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .

RUNINT -
Something to keep an eye on though. Poland has begun preparations to counter a possible attack by Russia, Ukrainian ambassador says per Ukrainian media. Very possibly propaganda, however Russia has threatened attacks of some sort and US has deployed Patriot systems to protect a key Polish airbase. Therefore it appears that the overall threat is reasonable.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Russia had increased air sorties over the past two days, carrying out as many as 300 over a 24-hour period. This follows a pattern where Monday sees higher numbers of sorties, declining over the rest of the week.

Reports of numerous Russian saboteurs in Kyiv and other areas of Ukraine. Curfews being instituted to get folks off the street and allow operations to locate and eliminate these teams.

Kyiv front -
U.S. and British officials say Kyiv remains Russia’s primary objective in the war. Russia has managed push close enough to start using its artillery to bombard the city in a war of attrition. That artillery movement forward appears to be the current objective of the Russian army. Cruse missiles struck portions of the town overnight. Flooded terrain in the vicinity of Irpin have rendered about half of the front unnavigable.
Ukrainian troops forced Russian troops out of the Kyiv suburb of Makariv after a fierce battle, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said. The regained territory allowed Ukrainian forces to retake control of a key highway and block Russian troops from surrounding Kyiv from the northwest. It also serves to cut off the southern tip of the Russian salient.
Russian forces were able to partially take other northwest suburbs, Bucha, Hostomel and Irpin.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Russian forces appear to have partially encircled Chernihiv and are continuing to hammer the city with a lot of artillery and bombs. The encirclement move currently seems to be a very road bound move to the southeast and is being contested by Ukraine forces. Russian forces did not conduct any ground operations directly against Chernihiv. Ukraine military assesses that the Russian forces in the area are trying to regroup and re-arm for a renewed push on Kyiv, but logistic support for such an operation are still lacking.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Continued Russian efforts to isolate Sumy and Khariv, but sustaining heavy casualties in doing so.
Ukrainian forces halted a Russian attack toward Brovary (a northeastern suburb of Kyiv) and inflicted heavy casualties as of noon local time on March 21. This is the tip of a very road bound advance from the Sumy area.
Russian social media sources confirmed on March 20 that Ukrainian forces killed a Russian Colonel (regimental commander) near Kharkiv on March 15.
Russian offensive pushing southward toward the Dombass region is beginning to stall out.
No word on the ammonia leak at a Sumy industrial facility created by Russian artillery.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Things have become desperate in Mariupol with intense street fighting ongoing. Some are likening it to Stalingrad.
Russia is slowly decreasing the area under Ukraine control, but facing difficult street by street, house to house fighting. Russia continued indiscriminate bombing/shelling of civilian areas.
Ukraine forces did successfully use an ATGM to target, hit and disable a Russian gunboat off Mariupol.
Separatist have increased the age of forced conscription to 65 and are arming them with old WW2 weapons.

Russian and Separatist forces in Luhansk Oblast slowed their attacks. Luhansk is the area between the Dombass and southern Northeastern Front - in the southeastern corner of Ukraine. Russia utilized a lot of air power in the area over the past couple days in area. Conflict in this area is still intense and the situation is fluid, but it seems Russian push has been stalled.

Russian officials confirmed that the Deputy Commander of the Black Sea Fleet for military-political affairs, Captain of the 1st Rank Andrei Paly (born and raised in Kyiv) was killed in Mariupol.

Crimea Front -
Russian offensive towards Kryvyi Rih still being contested by Ukraine forces and has apparently stalled.
Ukraine forces continue their offensive towards Kherson. New Planet satellite imagery from March 21st of Kherson airbase seems to indicate its been emptied of any functional military aircraft and the wrecks have been moved.
Civilian protests in Kherson and Zaporizhiya Oblasts appear to be forcing Russia to deploy Rosgvardia forces to quell protests. Rising resistance in Russian-occupied territory will likely force Russia to deploy additional forces to rear area security, further weakening the combat power available for offensive operations.

US intel notes Russian naval movements in the Black Sea, but they are not indicative of an impending amphibious operation.
It is further believed that Russian marine forces are being diverted to the fight for Mariupol, further reducing the capabiity of an amphibious assault near Odessa.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -

Repetitious but factual - Expect more indiscriminate artillery and bombing of civilian areas to demoralize the population and eliminate the will to resist.

After aggressive Russian operations over the past 48 hours, Russia was unable to make any substantial break out and are once again bogging down. Increasing use of alternative stand-off weapons, in this case the using ship to ship missiles against ground targets further raises the question on how thin Russia’s supplies are getting.

Reinforcement/replacement forces Russia is bringing in are assessed as being even more poorly trained, prepared and equipped than the forces currently committed. This includes Belarusian forces. As noted under Russia above, it has already committed the large majority of its forces, leaving very little left to bring in. A Belarusian attack will only cause a minor worry and absent significant Russian support will quickly be defeated.

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Belarus -

There are reports that NATO believes that Belarus is Preparing a Justification to begin an Offensive South into Ukraine, the Belarusian Military until now has only Supported Russian Forces, NATO also believes that the Deployment of Russian Nuclear Weapons into Belarus is Imminent
OBSERVATION - I’ve noted the observed build up and movement of Belarusian forces in the southwestern corner of the country.

The deployment of Russian nuclear weapons is a follow on to the recent Belorussian constitution change that allowed for such placement by Russia.. Goal of nuclear weapon placement would be to deter any attacks against Belarus.

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Europe / NATO General -

Preparations and political maneuvering continue for the NATO summit later this week.

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Globalism / Great Reset -

In a recent WEF’s latest report - warning of an impending food crisis kicked off by the war in Ukraine.
Key points:
* More people around the world will go hungry as a result of the pandemic, high fuel prices and the conflict in Ukraine.
* Russia and Ukraine are also major producers and suppliers of fertilizers and their raw materials.
* Existing logistical issues with moving grain and food are likely to worsen.
* Disruptions will put further pressure on this year’s harvest and lead to higher food prices.
* Even before the pandemic, the FAO estimated that 690 million people or 9% of the world’s population, were facing food insecurity.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) proposed rules Monday that would force companies to publicly disclose a wide-range of climate-related information.
“I am pleased to support today’s proposal because, if adopted, it would provide investors with consistent, comparable, and decision-useful information for making their investment decisions, and it would provide consistent and clear reporting obligations for issuers,” SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, who President Joe Biden appointed in February 2021, said in a statement.
The SEC, would require publicly-traded companies to disclose how “severe weather events and other natural conditions” may impact their business, under the proposed rules, according to an announcement.
OBSERVATION - This gives the GGR global warming arm a means to muscle firms into compliance with ‘international’ standards - without congress getting involved.

The United Nations secretary-general has called Australia a “holdout” after Scott Morrison refused to strengthen the nation’s 2030 emissions reduction target. António Guterres has used an address to a sustainability summit to take an extraordinary public swipe at Australia’s climate change efforts.
“A growing number of G20 developed economies have announced meaningful emissions reductions by 2030 – with a handful of holdouts, such as Australia,” he said. He said the Paris climate pact’s ambition of limiting global warming to 1.5C was “on life support” but there was still something that could save it.

Earlier this week, a Bloomberg article, written by economist Teresa Ghilarducci, recommends that families earning under $300,000 per year consider switching to public transportation, embracing a veggie diet, and “rethink those costly pet medical needs.” Ghilarducci and the far-left “New School for Social Research” she works for is affiliated with the World Economic Forum (WEF)
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Wuhan virus -

German MPs are debating the introduction of a law that would make vaccination against COVID-19 mandatory for all German citizens over 18. Most of those in favor blamed the unvaccinated for ongoing COVID cases and restrictions.

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Economy -

Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi joined “Mornings with Maria,” Tuesday and argued the risk of recession is “uncomfortably high” amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the spike in oil prices.
“It’s going to have to tighten monetary policy a lot more aggressively. Therefore, the risks of recession are now a lot higher… I’d put… the risk of recession now in the next 12 months, at least one in three… that’s uncomfortably high. “

NAR chief economist Larry Yun warning that “housing affordability continues to be a major challenge, as buyers are getting a double whammy: rising mortgage rates and sustained price increases,” BofA joins the chorus warning that last year’s housing euphoria is unlikely to repeat and this year will be a much more challenging year for the housing market given significant headwinds to affordability and ongoing supply-side challenges.
OBSERVATION - Bursting of the housing bubble may be the next domino to drop as our economy comes unraveled. Sky high fuel prices is already biting sales - food or fuel question - and those funds covering higher gas prices strips away funds for ever increasing housing prices and loans.

Oil prices rose on Wednesday as a reported drop in U.S. crude inventories increased concerns about tight global supplies amid the hit to Russian exports from economic sanctions. Brent crude futures climbed $1.77, or 1.53%, to $117.25 a barrel at 0443 GMT, after falling 14 cents in the previous session.
OBSERVATION - Volatility continues in the oil market

Hundreds of Chevron Corp. refinery workers in the San Francisco Bay Area went on strike Monday following a breakdown in talks between the oil major and the United Steelworkers (USW) union on a contract agreement.
OBSERVATION - This potentially will cause kalifornian prices to explode. By state law, only refineries in state can produce gasoline for state consumption - ZERO can be imported. The double whammy is that refineries are in the process of switching over to the summer blend - which commonly spikes prices until production is at full speed.

Much focus is on gasoline shortages and prices, but a more serous shortage is in the diesel realm. Supplies and stockpiles are noted to be very tight. Trucking and agriculture depend heavily upon diesel and any shortages will impact prices and even distribution of goods.

U.S. economic activity expanded at a slower rate in February and January’s expansion was slower than reported earlier, data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago showed Monday.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to 0.51 in February and January’s reading was revised down to 0.59 from the prior reading of 0.69.

America’s rapidly growing bird flu pandemic is going to deeply affect all of us at the grocery store. Over 12 million chickens and turkeys have been culled during this episode.
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Biden / Harris watch -

biden departed for Brussels today for tomorrow’s NATO meeting.
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Cyber Warfare -

The FBI on Tuesday warned energy companies to be on the lookout for unusual scanning activity from Russian IP addresses. In an alert, the FBI posted 140 IP addresses it has identified that have scanned five U.S. energy companies and at least 18 U.S. companies in other sectors, including the defense industrial base, financial services and information technology. ‘’While other U.S. critical infrastructure sectors have noticed abnormal scanning, the focus appears to be on entities within the energy sector,’’ the alert said.

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North Korea -

South Korea’s president-elect is clashing with the incumbent administration over North Korea’s multiple rocket launcher test. While Yoon Suk-yeol views it as a breach of an inter-Korean agreement, Seoul’s defense minister disagrees with his assessment

South Korea will be maintaining an enhanced readiness, especially in the Cyber sector, during this presidential transition.
President Moon recently stated that the current security situation on the Korean peninsula is “grave.”

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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Ukraine still stands after 4 weeks of war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Could be seeing the start of Russia trying to switch the momentum via a series of attacks.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 100% of the combat force that Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, It is becoming more and more apparent Russia has been scrambling to get more combat forces into theater and support those already committed.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********

The Pentagon: We have not observed a change in Russia’s nuclear behavior that requires activating deterrence plans.
Russia earlier has said that they would utilize nukes in the face of an ‘existential threat’. The definition of that ‘threat’ was left broad and relatively undefined.

Russia continues to try to tightly control news on the war. The Kremlin said that it is vital to create a new law that would jail journalists up to 15 years for spreading ‘false information’.

RUMINT -
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu removed Lieutenant General Vladislav Yershov from his duties and has been placed under house arrest.. He was the commander of the 6th Combined Arms Army of the country. According to preliminary data, 2,000 servicemen were missing from the 6th Army alone. Of these, about 180 people are conscript soldiers.

Follow up on casualties. 10,000 Russians killed is a ‘reasonable estimate’, a western official says. The figure briefly appeared on a pro-Kremlim website, possibly after being hacked, before being quickly deleted. The official added this would mean a further 30-40,000 wounded or incapacitated.

biden administration continues to warn about a Russian chemical attack to break the current stalemate.

Logistics - ‘
The Pentagon briefing yesterday indicated that frostbite was a major problem for the Russians. Similar, unconfirmed report, on Twitter of an intercepted phone call between an officer in Ukraine and a fellow officer in Russia where he states 50% of his unit suffering from frost bite. Not sure if the Pentagon was referencing the alleged interception. However, early photos of Russian POWs show them with totally inadequate has heterogeneous footwear. Combined with cold temperatures and wet/muddy conditions, conditions are ripe for foot issues as well as other cold weather injuries.
Shortages of other logistical essentials - food and water - have also created conditions of very low morale and even desertions.

Russia still trying to reinforce the war effort -
- Unconfirmed reports that Russia is deploying additional Naval Infantry from the Baltic and Northern fleets to Kharkiv and Izyum, in addition to attempting to restore the combat potential of previously deployed units.

Economic Impacts -
- The Biden administration is preparing new sanctions on most members of Russia’s State Duma, the lower house of parliament, as the U.S. continues its crackdown on Moscow over its ongoing war against Ukraine
- French energy giant TotalEnergies said Tuesday it has decided to halt all its purchases of Russian oil and petroleum products by the end of the year at the latest.
- Nestles has cease operations in Russia.
- Reuters removes TASS Russian news agency from its content marketplace
- Putin ordered government to receive payments for Russian natural gas from countries in “unfriendly countries list” in Russian Ruble

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Ukraine -

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

The fluidity of the conflict has been made evident over the past 24 hours. Ukraine forces have reportedly made advances on several key fronts, as detailed below. Note though, many of the actions are still only partially confirmed, there is evidence of a local swing in operations for Ukraine.

Where stalled and being entrenched defensively, Russian forces appear to be falling victim to land mines / IEDs.

According to multiple reports Starlink terminals have been used to connect Ukrainian recon drones’ ground stations with relevant artillery units to improve the effectiveness of available artillery (and likely for other purposes). SpaceX even sent a second load of Starlink Terminals with compatible batteries to keep them operating overnight and solar panels sufficient for their operation + battery recharging.

Kyiv front -
Situation has become very fluid.
Ukrainian reinforced their control of Kyiv suburb of Makariv . Ukrainian armed forces claim that they have cut the Russian supply lines to Bucha, Irpin and Hostomel near Kyiv. Bucha city council says that Russian military in Bucha, Irpen, and Hostomiel are surrounded. Ukrainian police reportedly patrolling Irpen once again.
OBSERVATION - If this is true, then the Russian push on Kyiv is in a precarious situation. Big on the list is the loss of ammo and fuel. Food would be dealt with by raiding local stores and residents. Some analysts are reluctant to endorse the Ukraine claims of encirclement, but evidenced is growing that Russians are in a precarious position.

Artillery continued to strike Kyiv overnight, targeting civilian areas.

Ukraine’s Kyiv Reservoir is spreading floodwaters near the Irpin River. This will make any Russian assault on Kyiv on this front even more difficult.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Russian forces moved to reinforces their attempts to encircle Chernihiv and are continuing to hammer the city with a lot of artillery and bombs. Russian forces did not conduct any ground operations directly against Chernihiv. Ukraine military assesses that the Russian forces in the area are trying to regroup and re-arm for a renewed push on Kyiv, but logistic support for such an operation are still lacking.
Russian forces in the area are increasingly becoming impacted by road mines and IEDs, adding to the woes of being picked off by ATGMs.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Continued Russian efforts to isolate Sumy and Khariv, but sustaining heavy casualties in doing so.
Russian continue to press toward Brovary and continues to be repulsed.

Russian offensive pushing southward toward the Dombass region is beginning to stall out.
No further word on the ammonia leak at a Sumy industrial facility created by Russian artillery.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Things continue desperate in Mariupol with intense street fighting ongoing. Some are likening it to Stalingrad.
Russia is slowly decreasing the area under Ukraine control, but facing difficult street by street, house to house fighting. Russia continued indiscriminate bombing/shelling of civilian areas. Russia has increased the number of naval vessels joining in the bombardment of the city.
Meanwhile, separatist / Russian forces are reinforcing the connection with forces from the Crimea front, further cutting the city off.
OBSERVATION - Russian actions are going well beyond war crimes levels in Mariupol. Sadly those directing the bombing on civilians and forced displacement will never come to trial. Mariupol will not be able to hold out much longer and the presence of Chechen thugs will make life for the survivors a literal hell.

Over the last 24 hours Russians have been firing into the city from the Sea of Azov from seven ships.

Russian and Separatist forces in Luhansk Oblast concentrated their efforts on capturing Rubizhne, Severodonetsk, Popasna, and Vugledar but were unsuccessful. The Ukrainian General Staff additionally stated Ukrainian forces inflicted heavy losses on a Russian attack on Marinka

Crimea Front -
Russian offensive towards Kryvyi Rih still being contested by Ukraine forces and has apparently stalled.
Ukraine forces continue their offensive towards Kherson. However, the pace has slowed and Ukraine may be working to consolidate their gains.
Ukrainian forces published a map on March 22 reportedly captured from Russian forces in Kherson Oblast on March 10.. The map reports Russia had about 10 battalion tactical groups (BTGs) from the 49th Combined Arms Army and 7th Airborne (VDV) Division operation on the Kherson axis in mid-March, in addition to supporting units from the 22nd Army Corps. Russian forces additionally reportedly had most of their command and control assets in the region stationed at the Kherson airport, which was struck by Ukrainian aircraft on March 15.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -

Repetitious but factual - Expect more indiscriminate artillery and bombing

Watching to see if the Ukraine actions to the northwest of Kyiv prove out to have encircled Russian forces. If that is the case, I don’t expect those Russian forces to hold out for long due to low morale combined with a lack of ammo and fuel stacked on top of it. This could develop into a major turning point in the battle for Kyiv.

After aggressive Russian operations over the past 48 hours, Russia was unable to make any substantial break out and are once again bogging down and are now facing Ukrainian counter attacks.

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Belarus -

Eyes are increasingly on the Southwestern corner of the country to see if the military build up there will result in an attack into Ukraine.
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Poland -

Dark smoke, believed to be due to the burning documents, was observed yesterday at the Russian embassy in Warsaw, Poland. Same thing happened in Kyiv the night before the invasion began.
This morning, Poland expelled 45 Russian diplomats for espionage:

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Europe / NATO General -

Finland and Sweden — neutral for decades — attended NATO’s emergency meeting after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and now seem poised to join the organization.

Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland are calling for a complete closure of roads for trucks coming from Russia and Belarus.
OBSERVATION - That would cut off Kaliningrad and potentially escalate things against these NATO countries by Russia. .

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announces the deployment of 4 new NATO battlegroups in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia. This is in addition to 4 NATO battleground already in the Baltic’s in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, as well as Poland, making 8 multinational battalion-sized battlegroups in total

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Israel -

Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, during the tripartite meeting with Sisi and Bin Zayed in Sharm El-Sheikh, discussed the possibility of the Assad government returning to the Arab League, stressing that Israel’s first interest is the withdrawal of Iranian forces from Syria, according to the Hebrew newspaper Israel Today reported.

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Iran -

U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price said on Tuesday that the onus is now on Iran on whether it is willing to enter into a mutual return to compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.
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Holy heck Hanna, things have gotten out right crazy yesterday afternoon and over night. This will be a long post, please bear with me.
I totally expect this tempo to continue for some time.
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Wuhan virus -

In late March 2020, New Zealand recorded 5 cases of COVID-19 infection and immediately shut down everything, locked down borders and citizens, and instituted the most severe restrictions on formerly free citizens in global history. In late March 2022, New Zealand recorded 20,000 cases of COVID-19 infection (yesterday), and announces they are dropping almost all COVID restrictions, removing vaccination mandates and eliminating COVID passports.

The White House COVID Task Force is warning there won’t be enough vaccines to give people a fourth vaccine dose if Congress does not provide the “appropriate level of funding.”
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Economy -

House Democrats have introduced a bill that would provide monthly stimulus checks to Americans because of the high price of gas.
The bill would give Americans $100 a month and $100 per dependent for the rest of the year in any month where the national average is above $4 a gallon. It would be paid for by taxing the excess profits of large oil and gas companies.
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Biden / Harris watch -

biden has received no ‘bounce’ from his handling of the Ukraine crisis, according to recent polls.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -

A senior U.S. defense official said that Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is still considering the possibility of deploying additional American troops to NATO’s eastern flank in Europe

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China -

An “undisclosed lender” (a Chinese state owned bank?) has jumped the line on claims against Evergrande’s remaining piles of cash, seizing some $2 billion in deposits, including deposits pledged as security to international investors.
Unsurprisingly, a number of international investors are not pleased and preparing to sue.
The surprise revelation is set to ignite a legal battle between major international investors and the Chinese developer, which has more than $300bn in liabilities. Evergrande’s collapse, which represents the biggest debt restructuring in China’s history, comes as a slowdown in the real estate sector poses increasing financial and political risks to President Xi Jinping’s government.
Playing political favorites in how Evergrande’s financial carcass is carved up might play well in China, but it won’t make Chinese investment attractive in the future.
This is happening despite Beijing’s recent efforts prop up the real estate sector.
The Chinese real estate bubble is deflating and Beijing is proving unable to stop it.

OBSERVATION - The economic woes the Evergrande scandal and other property firms still pose a serious threat to China’s economy and Xi’s tenure as leader.
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North Korea -

North Korea tested an intercontinental ballistic missile - the new Hwasong-17, according to Yonhap. T he ICBM was fired on a lofted trajectory, according to the South Korean military and it landed 170km west of Aomori, inside of Japan’s exclusive economic zone, according to the Japanese Coast Guard.
The missile reached maximum altitude of at least 6,000km, or 3728 miles. The Japanese Vice Defense Minister says it flew higher than the 2017 Hwasong-15 test. For reference the ISS orbit is max 410km. Flight time was roughly an hour.

OBSERVATION - This ICBM was first revealed several months ago at a military parade. It is suspect that at least one of the recent shorter range tests involved a limited test of the Hwasong-17. This represents a missile with multiple warheads that can strike any point in North America north of Mexico City. Test probably also evaluated the re-entry components to protect the potential warheads. This new system expands NK’s nuclear projection capability.
RUMINT is that NK may follow up with a potential test of a prototype warhead - a major step in their nuclear program. Construction has been notes at the nuclear test site.

South Korea to the test, saying it stands ‘ready and capable’ of carrying out a precision missile strike on North Korea’s missile launch location and control system ‘if needed’

In response to the NK ICBM test, South Korea says it’s conducted tests of major missiles from the ground, sea, and air.
One Hyunmoo-II surface to surface missile was fired, one MGM-140 surface to surface missile was fired, a Haesong-II ship to ground missile, and two JDAM air to ground missiles, says the JCS.

OBSERVATION - IIRC this is the first time SK has responded in this manner to a NK missile test. This could mark a period of escalation of the arms race on the peninsula and potential conflict.

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Japan -
See NK above
OBSERVATION - If NK follows the ICBM test up with a nuclear test, Japan may finally decide to go nuclear as well.
____________________________________

Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin’s desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Could be seeing the start of Russia trying to switch the momentum via a series of attacks.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 100% of the combat force that Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, It is becoming more and more apparent Russia has been scrambling to get more combat forces into theater and support those already committed.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********
The U.S. State Department said Russia has listed a number of its diplomats in Moscow as “persona non grata” and is in the process of having them expelled from the embassy.

The Russian foreign ministry on Monday said it was close to severing diplomatic relations with the U.S. - an unprecedented move - after complaining to U.S. Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan about President Biden’s characterization of Russian President Vladimir Putin as a “war criminal.”

Secretary of Defense Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Milley have attempted reaching out to top Russian military leaders but have so far been ignored, according to reporting from the Washington Post.
NOTE - this is the special ‘hot line’ meant to prevent missteps and misunderstandings between the two counties. Silence is not good.

Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the conflict in Ukraine by telephone with Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett on Wednesday, the Kremlin said in a statement.

The existence of Russia itself is at stake today - Head of Russian delegation at talks with Ukraine and former minister of culture Medinsky
****NOTE*****
Yesterday, Russia said that they would utilize nukes in the face of an ‘existential threat’.

Russia’s Ministry of Defense Head Sergei Shoigu reportedly missing, hasn’t made public appearances in 12 days. When asked about it, a source in the defense minister’s entourage told investigative outlet Agentstvo that he is unwell and has “heart problems.”” Shoigu is seen as one of Putin’s closest and most loyal allies.
OBSERVATION - This is HUGE, so much of the military effort is directed by Moscow the ‘loss’ of the senior general has likely caused the whole military planning and effort chain to seize up. It will further constipate Russian war efforts and cause more uncorrdianted

Another (formerly ) close ally of Putin - Putin advisor A. Chubais has quit and has left Russia (Bloomberg)

Vladimir Putin’s Russian Army has lost another commander - the 15th of Putin’s top military leaders to be killed as the country’s invasion of Ukraine heads into its second month.
Colonel Alexei Sharov became the latest high-ranking Russian official to die in what has become the country’s biggest loss of military higher-ups since World War II. His death was announced by Ukrainian armed forces on social media Tuesday.
The commander of the 810th Guards Separate Order of Zhukov Brigade in the Russian Marines, Sharov was reportedly killed in Mariupol.
NOTICE - There have been a lot of senior Russian officers killed in the Mariupol battle, to include recently the Russian Naval deputy commander of the Black Sea Fleet.

RUMINT -
According to Ukraine Intel, Russian Nat’l Guard prepares to block Kerch bridge, ferry & air connections. Since 24 Feb, panic has rising in Crimea, with Russian military, occupation administrations trying to leave.

Logistics - ‘
Based on US evaluation Russia still has “vast majority of their assembled available inventory of surface-to-air missiles&cruise missiles available to them...the thing that they are running the lowest on are air-launched cruise missiles...just over 50% of what they had assembled left”
Note. What this means is that Russia can continue to attack civilian targets with these munitions at the same pace for almost another month.

Russia still trying to reinforce the war effort -
NATO estimates up to 15,000 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine. That means in just one month, Moscow has potentially matched its number killed in decade-long Soviet war in Afghanistan in the 1980s
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Ukraine -

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

The fluidity of the conflict has been made evident over the past 24 hours. It appears the stalemate of the past couple weeks is breaking, and Ukraine forces have reportedly made advances on several key fronts, as detailed below. Note though, many of the actions are still only partially confirmed, there is evidence of a local swing in operations for Ukraine.

Kyiv front -
Situation has become VERY fluid.
Over the past couple days there has been much discussion and analysis of Ukraine claims of being in the process of and actually cutting off Russian forces in the salient northwest of Kyiv. With new data coming in analysts see confirmation ion those claims. According to US defense officials, there is a realistic possibility that Ukrainian forces are now able to encircle Russian units in Bucha and Irpin.”
Ukraine forces are confirmed to be in Bucha, Irpin and Hostomel. Unconfirmed reports that Ukraine has almost taken back all of Irpin. Additionally Ukraine forces control Markariv and now Teterivske. Ukraine control of Teterivske is really bad news for the Russian forces west and north west of Kyiv. It poses a very serious threat to Russian supply lines. A link to a map of the situation is below.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOihPsvWYAAmAdR?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

OBSERVATION - This appears to be largely due to the Ukraine flank attack i noted back on post 197 (Mar 18th).
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4026005/posts?page=197#197

This is a devastating blow for any Russian offensive against Kyiv from this front. Russian forces don’t have the manpower or equipment to to reach Kyiv, let alone set siege or capture it.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Russian forces continue to face set backs in this front, failing to both advance on Kyiv as well as to make any progress against Chernihiv . Russians are still trying to encircle Chernihiv and are eight to 10 kilometers away from the city centre. They are “stalled” and have ceded some ground in some places there. Chernihiv continues to face devistataing bombing and artillery fire on residential areas.
See North Eastern Front for more bad news for Russia

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Continued Russian efforts to isolate Sumy and Khariv, but sustaining heavy casualties in doing so.

Russian attack toward Brovary (and towards Kyiv) apparently has been crushed and Russian forces have been locally routed. Per US defense official, the Ukrainians have pushed the Russians back to about 55 kilometers east/northeast of Kyiv. This is a push back of 15-20 Km from previous positions. This essentially eliminates the Konotop and Sumy ‘finger’ assaults that have been stuck for a couple weeks now (See map link below - though it hasn’t been updated for this event).
OBSERVATION - This is extremely bad news for Russia for both this front as well as the Northern Front (Chernihv region ). Demonstrates that Russian forces are increasingly depleted and unable to hold captured ground for starters. Makes any effort to move on Kyiv from these fronts even more problematical if not impossible.
.
Russian offensive pushing southward toward the Dombass region is beginning to stall out. See Eastern front for more details.

6 killed, 15 wounded as result of Russian army shelling on humanitarian aid delivery point at Nova Poshta post office on Akademika Pavlova Avenue in Kharkiv

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Things continue desperate in Mariupol with intense street fighting ongoing. Some are likening it to Stalingrad.
Russia is slowly decreasing the area under Ukraine control, but facing difficult street by street, house to house fighting. Russia continued indiscriminate bombing/shelling of civilian areas. Russia has increased the number of naval vessels joining in the bombardment of the city.
OBSERVATION - Russian actions are going well beyond war crimes levels in Mariupol. Sadly those directing the bombing on civilians and forced displacement will never come to trial. Mariupol will not be able to hold out much longer and the presence of Chechen thugs will make life for the survivors a literal hell.

US intelligence officials are seeing indications that the Russians are starting to prioritize that part of of eastern Ukraine ,” referring to the Donbass area. I’ve noted efforts of attacks southward out of this front towards Izium (North Eastern Front from Khariv area) as well as north and westward attacks coming out of this front. After making some initial gains, these assaults have stalled out, though Russian forces continue to try to maintain the offensive initiative.

Russian naval forces have had a significant set back overnight. Russian Pr. 1171 (Alligator) LST “Orsk” unloading ammunition at the docks at the captured Ukrainan port of Berdyansk exploded overnight. Two Ropucha Class landing ships that were docked next to the Orsk were seen sailing away from fire with at least one (and possibly both) of the vessels with a fire on its deck. Damage to the dock at Berdyansk is unknown at present, but may have been seriously damaged. This port has been used to resupply the assault on Mariupol.
The cause of the explosion is still unknown. Unconfirmed reports that the ship was hit with a Tochka-U SRBM. Others view the cause as careless handling of munitions during unloading.
The Orsk has been confirmed to have been sunk. Alligator class are some of the oldest landing ships in the Russian navy and its loss reduces the number of amphibious ships in the Black Sea to 8. Damage to the U/I Ropucha class ships may further reduce Russian amphibious capability until they are repaired.

Crimea Front -
Russian offensives towards Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia are apparently stalled. The apparent goal of these assaults are to isolate Ukraine defenders in the Domabss region from support/resupply.

Heavy battles on the border of Kherson and Mykolaiv regions as the Ukraine counter offensive continues.

Bastion-P (P-800 Oniks / SS-N-26 STROBILE) supersonic missiles have been used against ground targets in Odessa. Typically anti ship missiles are being launched from land sites in Crimea.

Just released videos of the Turkish made TB-2 show how versatile it is. Besides a direct attack mode - most commonly seen in released videos, Ukraine is also using it to direct artillery fire. The attack by the Ukrainian army on Kherson Airport, TB-2 Bayraktar guided the attack at an altitude of 5800 meters and 48 km from the target. Russian military vehicles and positions where the TB2 laser-marked were hit successfully with artillery - multi-barrel rocket launchers.

Due to the loss of one and possible serious damage to two other amphibious assault ships at Berdyansk over night, the potential for an amphibious assault to encircle Odessa has dropped to near zero in the near term.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -

Repetitious but factual - Expect more indiscriminate artillery and bombing

Ukrainan counteroffensive is securing Kyiv from Russian assaults from three fronts. It is unlikely that the current Russian forces are capable at this time to mount a counter attack to regain lost ground. I believe that Russia is incapable of being able to cut off Kyiv and siege it, let alone capture it with its present forces. Given the reportedly poor quality of the Russian forces that they are bringing into the theatre, those reinforcements will be incapable of accomplishing the goal of capturing Kyiv.

Russia looks to continue to push in the Dombass region but it doesen’t seem likely to make much more progress than they have.

The Crimea front doesn’t look capable of continuing offensive operations to push into the Dombass region or encircle Odessa. Potential for an amphibious assault is out of the question for now. I expect increased missile/bombing efforts on Odessa and surrounding cities.
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Belarus -

US sees no evidence that Belarus is preparing to enter the war.
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Poland -

Russian ambassador says that Poland has frozen the bank accounts of Russia’s embassy in the country
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Europe / NATO General -

U.S. President Joe Biden and world leaders opened a trio of emergency summits on Thursday with a sober warning from NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg that the alliance must boost its defenses to counter Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and “respond to a new security reality in Europe.”

NATO/U.S. forces in Europe have been placed at heightened readiness per NATO Secretary General.

There are reports that The French Military has quietly Raised its Nuclear Posture and Alert Levels over the last week or so, an Indication of this Occurring is that 3 of the 4 French Triomphant-Class Submarines which can Launch Nuclear Capable Ballistic Missiles have gone to Sea.
OBSERVATION - A very subtle but LOUD warning to Russia that France is not in the mood to play the nuclear escalation game.

Turkish S400’s - See Turkey below.

Four more NATO battle groups are being assembled and deployed on its eastern flank. This Stations a NATO Multinational Battlegroup in Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia and Poland originally with the new 4 going to Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia.

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Iran -

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned #Israel on Wednesday that it would face swift revenge attacks if it continues to target members of the elite force in the Middle East, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported.

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Turkey -

Turkey says the West should first deliver F-35s and Patriot batteries without preconditions before asking Ankara to deploy S-400s to Ukraine: Senior Turkish official Fahrettin Altun to WSJ
OBSERVATION - I don’t see this happening any time soon.

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Armenia/Azerbaijan -

There is evidence of an Azerbaijani incursion in the direction of Parukh village of the Askeran region. The coming hours will be crucial. There is a significant risk of even bigger escalation.
OBSERVATION - Russia is believed to have pulled forces out of Armenia to support the Ukraine war. Now Azerbaijan seems to be taking advantage of the situation.
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Long report again, took a lot of time to sort thru information for this weekly temperature check.

Temperature Gauge - Threat Trending Code Color Key

BLACK - An area worth noting, but not immediately impacting on US safety
BLUE - Incidents increasing and needing further monitoring, low threat to the US
YELLOW - This is the moderate concern level. Definitely becoming a threat but in the longer term.
ORANGE - A definite threat in both short term and long term. Some active events occurring
RED - Active and ongoing. Examples of this would be 2020 rioting, etc.

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Globalism / Great Reset - YELLOW trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Ukraine war has allowed GGR to operate towards the ‘reset’ without much news coverage. GGR evaluating global impacts to food supplies and economies for exploitation to the globalist cause. GGR cadre, are heaping food scarcity on top of the supply chain crisis, fuel crisis, and violent crime epidemics they’ve already brought us. Exploitation and creation of crisis - in order to get the people to turn to the global ‘saviors’ as the price of lost liberty and freedom.

BlackRock Inc’s (BLK.N) chief executive, Larry Fink, said on Thursday that the Russia-Ukraine war could end up accelerating digital currencies as a tool to settle international transactions, as the conflict upends the globalization drive of the last three decades.
In a letter to the shareholders of the world’s largest asset manager, Fink said the war will push countries to reassess currency dependencies, and that BlackRock was studying digital currencies and stablecoins due to increased client interest.
“A global digital payment system, thoughtfully designed, can enhance the settlement of international transactions while reducing the risk of money laundering and corruption”, he said.

OBSERVATION - Blackrock is deep in the GGR pocket, in this instance, revealing one aspect of GGR evaluation of controlling global financial transactions via international digital currency.

Can be noted under Economy as well. Experts say American shoppers will begin to see higher grocery bills as the war in Ukraine threatens global food supplies.
President Biden said Thursday that a food shortage is “gonna be real” following the sanctions that were placed on Russia by the U.S. government as a result of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion into Ukraine.
“With regard to food shortage, yes we did talk about food shortages, and it’s gonna be real,” Biden said during a press conference at a NATO summit in Brussels, Belgium, following a meeting with other world leaders.
“The price of the sanctions is not just imposed upon Russia,” he added. “It’s imposed upon an awful lot of countries as well, including European countries and our country as well.”

OBSERVATION - He who controls the food, controls the world. I’ve noted for the past couple years that the global food situation is getting worse, and this maybe the year it unravels. Stock up now.
MORE - It was no secret by 2021, China panic hoarded half of the world’s maize and other grains resulting in increased food inflation.
China’s buying spree of all commodities left many market observers puzzled by Beijing’s stockpiling motives. Now we understand the second-largest economy in the world was forecasting a global catastrophe of widespread famine due to disrupted food supply chains.

MORE FOOD RELATED - World Bank President David Malpass told people not to store food or gasoline in spite of the massive spike in prices since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. “The right thing to do in these current circumstances is not to go out and buy extra flour or extra gasoline, it’s to recognize that the world is a dynamic global economy and will respond. There’ll be enough to go around,” Malpass said.
OBSERVATION - Stockpiling is one means to mitigate a food crisis. To discourage storage is to permit the GGR to manipulate supplies to coerce resistant populations.

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Wuhan virus - YELLOW *last updated 12-10-21*
DISCUSSION - News largely overwhelmed by Ukraine reporting. Some rules are being silently locked in while other mandates are being removed/suspended. The distraction of war is allowing the remnants of mandates to be hidden for later use - as needed.

Continued warnings of a new variant by Fauci et al. amid new calls for more funding by the left for wuhan control measures.
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Economy - RED * Updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - Fed raised rates .25% with increased inflation pressures due in part to housing and gasoline. Fed now looking to the next raises being even higher, as much as double earlier projections.

Average price of gasoline now at $4.24/gallon

Orders at U.S. factories for long-lasting goods fell more than expected in February, snapping a months-long streak of increases and business investment as manufacturers confronted a worsening supply chain crisis. Bookings for all durable goods – products that are intended to last at least three years – fell 2.2%, the first decline in five months, the government reported on Thursday. Economists surveyed by Refinitiv forecast a 0.5% decline.

OBSERVATION - This is pre-Ukraine war, so those impacts haven’t hit the reporting cycle yet. Supply issues are part, but February also saw considerable inflation increases - even before the Ukraine related gasoline increases. People were already reprioritizing their spending to essentials.

Sticking it to US steel plants. The U.S. and U.K. struck a trade accord Tuesday that will remove U.S. tariffs on British steel and aluminum, while the U.K. will lift levies on American whiskey, motorcycles and tobacco.
Biden administration officials said the agreement with the U.K. will allow the U.K to ship “historically-based sustainable volumes” of steel and aluminum products to the U.S. without levies imposed under the former Trump administration.

U.S. oil and gas company output saw its highest activity in at least six years. The Federal Reserve of Dallas surveyed major industries, finding that 15% of large firms plan to increase growth by 30% this year. Respondents predicted U.S. crude could return to pre-invasion levels by end of year. These long-term predictions contrast short-term forecasts with some top oil traders warning prices could pass $200 a barrel.
OBSERVATION - Production is ramping up, but potential relief is still 6 months or more out - depending on no further bumps.

HERE IS A SPEED BUMP - Amid pushback from industry and lawmakers in both parties, federal energy regulators on Thursday scaled back plans to consider how natural gas projects affect climate change and environmental justice. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission said a plan to consider climate effects will now be considered a draft and will only apply to future projects.
Industry groups and key lawmakers had criticized a proposal approved last month to tighten climate rules, saying it was poorly timed amid a push for increased natural gas exports following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

OVERALL OBSERVATION - The economy is hemorrhaging on many fronts. High fuel costs are making shortage based inflation even worse with no relief in the near or long term. Conditions are very ripe for the Fed to over react and raise rates too fast, driving the economy into a depression. There is already a high probability of a recession.

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Invasion of Illegals - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Illegals continue to push across the border with record numbers of intercepts

February 2022 was another record month of illegal immigration.
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Biden/Harris watch - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Mental facilities continue to degrade. Harris’ mental capabilities are also questionable.

Re a Russian chemical attack question, Biden forcefully insisted that the United States would “respond” were that to happen. But he’s not saying what form our response would take, insisting that the response would depend on the nature of the attack.

biden visiting Poland for photo ops.

Hunter biden laptop probe gaining traction in liberal media and congressional investigations. Some pundits are speculating that this could actually be used to leverage biden out of the WH. However they have to deal with a problem named Kamala. This would essentially mean that democrats would have to replace the entire presidential team before the 2024 elections.

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CW2/Domestic violence - YELLOW trending upward *updated 03/25/22*
DISCUSSION - BLM/Antifa showing increasing trends to respond with violence to political activities (marches, meetings, etc) on the right. Increase early calls to show up armed and willing to kill. Increased first aid and riot training. Rampant crime continues with it migrating into affluent areas.
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CANCEL CULTURE FRONT - YELLOW *updated 01-28-22*

Continued high tech censoring of conservative views.
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POLITICAL FRONT - YELLOW and increasing *updated 01-28-22*

biden USSC nominee likely to pass, but by a hair.

Forecast for democrats is that they are going to get hammered in the midterms. 30 democrats have already announced ‘retirement’ ahead of the elections - an indicator of rats fleeing the ship. Democrats leadership continue full speed ahead on measures that the general public are against, but are favored by the progressive/leftist wing of the party.
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Domestic Terror - BLUE

Under watch as US enemies get emboldened by the biden administration weakness on anti terror policy.

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Strategic Activity / Deployments - ORANGE (UPDATED 01/21/2022) *status raised*

US forces are at an increased state of readiness due to the Ukrainian war and unrest in the rest of the world.
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Cyber Warfare - YELLOW

Continued warnings of Russian cyber attacks against US power and financial networks.
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China - ORANGE trending neutral to upward

Xi facing rumblings of a removal as China’s economy stumbles and the powers that be are increasingly disturbed over his authoritarian actions as President. The Evergrande (and other, smaller property management / development companies) melt down threatens to shake apart the economy in a manner even larger than Lehman’s did in 2008.
China facing other economic shocks due to renewed lockdowns of industrial cities and port areas over wuhan.
China also flexing its muscles over Taiwan. RUMINT that China may try to move on Taiwan sometime this fall.
China also toeing a fine line in its support of Russia, not wanting to be too overt so as to avoid economic sanctions.
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India/China - BLUE MOVING TOWARDS YELLOW *updated 120421*

China continues to build military bases in the disputed border regions

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North Korea - ORANGE tending upward (UPDATED 03-25-22)

Status alert increased to ORANGE.
N. Korean missile capability warrants early deployment of new missile interceptors: U.S. commander.
OBSERVATION - Remember President Reagan’s “Star Wars” defense that was so put down by the left. His vision has at least given us some chance against missiles attacks with todays ABM systems.

Evidence that NK may be preparing for another underground nuclear test is growing.

NK now has a valid ICBM delivery system capable of MIRV warheads - depending on the size of the warhead. The next nuclear test will likely be of one of those warheads.

SK has elected a more conservative government that is expected to take a harder line against NK - especially its weapons testing. SK responses to NK tests have been the sharpest that I can remember. This may stimulate NK to increase its development tempo.
Potential flash point for conflict in the coming months.

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Japan - BLUE trending upward (updated 03-25-22

Regional instability from China and NK are increasing Japan’s concerns and have resulted in increased military spending.

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Russia - RED * updated 02-18-22*
DISCUSSION - INCREASED WARNING ONGOING -

WAR WATCH - This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin executing gross bombing campaign on Ukrainan civliians due to failure of the ground assault. Military has lost tens of thousands of soldiers to death/wounds and tons of equipment. Army scrambling to get replacements.
Increased concerns that Russia may deploy NBC weapons to regain the offensive momentum.

*********

RUMINT - Reports that Ukraine got the 49th Combined Army’s commanding general.

Russian commander of the 37th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, colonel Yuri Medvedev was run over by a tank of his own unit after casualties in Ukraine. This confirmed a posted radio intercept by a Russian officer that also complained that 50% of his force was suffering from frostbite.
OBSERVATION - Vietnam era, this would be called a form of ‘fragging’. Evidence of the desperation of Russian troops in the face of a poorly organized war that went south from the start. The low morale and supply shortages likely being reflected now in Russian losses of ground gained early on.
Additionally, Russia has lost a lot of senior commanders - this only makes matters worse on the ground as leadership issues get worse at all levels.

Russian precision-guided missiles are failing up to 60% of the time in Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of intelligence on the issue told Reuters, a possible explanation for the poor progress of Russia’s invasion.
OBSERVATION - The officials said the failure rate depended on the weapon, the worst cases being cruse missiles. There are a lot of reports of Russian ‘dummy’ bombs not going off either. Ukraine EOD units being overwhelmed. However, I don’t think this issue is a “possible explanation for the poor progress of Russia’s invasion”. The greater factor is poor Russian training, preparation and logistics of the ground assault.

Reinforcements -
- New BTGs being brought into the fight from Russia’s far east and Kaliningrad, but they have not had much training.
- The Kremlin is facing challenges deciding how and where to replenish spent ground forces. With the emergent Ukrainian counter offensives further decimating their forces and losing ground gained early on, the military’s planning cycle is sorely inadequate to put forces where they are needed to attain their goals.
- The Ukrainian General Staff stated on March 24 that the Kremlin is prioritizing restoring combat capabilities in VDV (airborne) units. The General Staff reported Russian commanders are increasingly deploying reserve officers, conscripts, and obsolete armored vehicles to replace losses.
- Replacement forces are being judged to be subpar - even worse than those who were committed to the initial assault. Same goes for equipment which in many cases is old and poorly maintained.
- A joke from Moscow: “According to Putin the special military operation is really a conflict btw Russia and NATO about World dominance. Whats the situation now?” “Russia has lost 15000 troops, 6 generals, 500 tanks, 3 ships, 100 planes and 1000 trucks. NATO hasn’t arrived yet.”

Economic Hits -
- The US and G7 freeze the Russian Central Bank’s gold reserves. This is 20% of the central bank’s total assets, between $100 to $140 billion.
- Senate working on bill to remove most favored nation status for Russia.
- Finland suspends it’s only passenger rail connection to Russia. Connection was kept open until now to allow Finns and other foreigners a way out Saint Petersburg.
- Biden saying he is in favor of kicking Russia out of the G20 group of major economies in response to the invasion of Ukraine.
- US/EU agreement to increase LNG supply to replace Russian natural gas.
- Moody’s Investors Service said on Thursday it intends to withdraw its credit ratings on Russian entities, following similar moves by Fitch and S&P Global Ratings.
- The Russian stock market opened Thursday for limited trading under heavy restrictions for the first time since Moscow invaded Ukraine, coming almost a month after prices plunged and the market was shut down as a way to insulate the Russian economy from stiff Western sanctions. Trading of a limited number of stocks, including energy giants Gazprom and Rosneft, took place under curbs meant to prevent a repeat of the massive selloff on Feb. 24 that came in anticipation of American and European economic sanctions.

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Ukraine - RED *updated 02-18-22* - The battle for Kyiv and Ukraine has entered its second month.

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru April 3d show warm with increasing rain/showers. Conditions likely to keep off road operations unfavorable.

RUNINT -
According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russian forces are increasingly taking Ukrainians to Russian territory. From the so-called filtration camps, people have been sent to economically weak regions, with data suggesting Sakhalin as one of these areas.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Dramatic ground gains by Ukraine forces in most sectors have forces Russian troops to dig in.
Russia has had to devote more combat troops to protect logistical trains and reduce front line forces.
Conditions in Mariupol are still critical.
Russia continues to indiscriminately attack civilian facilities and residential areas. Many towns turned completely to rubble.

Russian amphibious ship loss follow up -
Open reports say that the Russian Pr. 1171 (Alligator) LST “Orsk” was destroyed in the Ukraine strike yesterday, with 50 KIA. However, there is confusion if this was the actual ship or its sister ship, the Saratov. The Orsk was featured in a Russian TV spot a few days before the strike unloading ammo at the port. However, this is where it gets interesting, other sources state Orsk left once unloading was done, and that its place was taken by sister Saratov loaded with ammunition (presumably for the same unit), and that it’s Saratov that’s now a burning wreck. Saratov would be the other Alligator class ship in the region.
The other two amphibious assault ships, Project 775-class landing ships, Caesar Kunikov’ and Novocherkassk’ escaped the port. Both were damaged and had casualties (11 wounded, 3 dead). Extent of damage still not known.
Bottom line is, the attack removed at least one ship from the roster and damaged two others.

A Sentinel satellite did a pass over Berdyansk only a few hours after the port was hit. Initial assessment of imagery suggests that there is some damage to the infrastructure at the port/pier.

CAUSE - Russian sources say fragments from a shot down Tochka caused a fire in the port & an explosion of fuel & ammo, which spread to the ship. Ukraine said it was a hit from a TB-2 drone, setting off the chain reaction explosion. A TB-2 strike to me is more likely as the only video I saw showed a small explosion that preceded the ammo going off. The explosive ‘puff’ was similar to those I’ve seen of other TB-2 strikes that didn’t set of a catastrophic explosion immediately.

The two Project 775-class landing ships, Caesar Kunikov’ and Novocherkassk’ were seen on satellite imagery heading back to navy base Sevastopol in Crimea and are now believed in Sevastopol.

Kyiv front -
Ukraine continues to make gains to close the salient northwest of Kyiv. Attacks are being pressed to retake Hostomel, Bucha and Irpin.
Russian forces in Bucha and Nemishevska (just northwest of ongoing fighting in Irpin) are reported to be constructing new trench lines in the past 24 hours as they switch to the defense.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Ukraine attacks have forced Russian forces away from Kyiv and back toward Chernihv. Russian forces are observed digging in and switching to a predominantly defensive posture. and reportedly have massed a lot of artillery to support the attack as well as continue to pound Chernihv.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Ukrainan forces consolidated gains made over the past two days that gained 15-20 km of territory, creating a 50 km buffer from attacking forces. Sources say the town of Lukyankovka (there are apparently two Lukyankovka - this isn’t the suburb of Kyiv but further east) in Kyiv Oblast has been taken back from Russians. This means Ukrainian forces have advanced 10-13 km along the key H-07 highway running east to Sumy.

There is evidence of a surrounded Russian force in vicinity of Nova Basan - located east of Brovary. See figure links below.

Russian and Ukraine forces still are clashing in the vicinity of the town of Izyum (Izium). Both sides claim control of the town. However, Russian advances are essentially stalled - again.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Conditions in Mariupol continue to be desperate with bombing killing hundreds of civilians. Evidence that some elements of Russian forces have penetrated to the center of the city. Local civil authorities have relocated to an adjacent town to improve communications with defenders as well as Kyiv. The Mariupol City Administration reported on March 24 that Russian forces are using loudspeakers to falsely claim to Mariupol residents that Zaporizhia is no longer accepting refugees, the Ukrainian government has abandoned them, and that Russian forces have captured Odesa. City authorities additionally reported Russian forces have forcibly deported approximately 6,000 Mariupol residents to Russia as of March 24.

Crimea Front -
Ukranian forces continue to press their attack towards Kherson. Ukraine attacking RU forces defending east bank of Bug River near Mykolaiv

Russian advances to Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia are increasingly in danger as their logistics are over extended and Ukraine forces press localized raids and counter attacks. Advace by Russians in these two areas has been stalled for over a week.

The following link kind of depicts Ukraine’s drive towards Kherson. The blue represents formerly Russian controlled territory now recaptured by Ukraine and are forming the axis of attacks towards Kherson and Russian controlled areas (yellow)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOps-KDWUAUINSs?format=jpg&name=360x360

Russian amphibious operations against the Odessa region are off the table for now. An Admiral Grigorovich Class Frigate seen operating off Odessa, Ukraine today
This ship can carry
8 x Kalibr (SS-N-27 SIZZLER) or P-Oniks (SS-C-5 STOOGE) Missiles
24 × SA-N-7B ‘GRIZLY’ SAMs
1 x Naval gun
Helicopter
Torpedoes, ASW rockets, AAA

A NOTE ON MAPS - Please bear with me, Html postings of maps in this thread would greatly increase my time producing this post as I would have to add html through out the whole document. The links to maps, in conjunction with the above text, help conceptualize the operations.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

However, the following link depicts the effects fo the Ukrainan counter offensive is a better manner. On this map, the “orange” depicts Russian forward operating positions. However, it also depicts areas that Ukraine has taken back recently from Russia.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOp09qqXMAEtJ_W?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

OUTLOOK -

More of the same. Massive bombing and artillery on residential areas with the goal to turn cities into rubble and demoralize Ukraine.

Ukraine offensives around Kyiv to continue and likely cut off Russian forces - especially in the northwest.

The siege of Mariupol will likely be ending soon with the eventual capture of the city. Hard to see it holding out much longer. Expect massive war crimes against citizens.

Kherson may well fall this next week as the western Crimea front falters. Any amphibious assault to the west of Odessa is out of the question for the foreseeable future.
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Belarus - RED *updated 01-02-28*
DISCUSSION - Managing to keep its forces in country and not commit to ground combat in Ukraine.

Continued troop movements towards the southwestern corner of the country that could be prepositioning for an assault into western Ukraine.

The United States, the European Union and largely western allies have blocked Belarus’ bid to join the World Trade Organization, saying its complicity in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine makes it unfit for membership in the global trade group.
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Poland - ORANGE trending upward *updated 3-18-22*
DISCUSSION - Poland could well be within Russian crosshairs for its operation in resupplying Ukrainian forces.

Continued Ukraine resupply hub for humanitarian and military supplies to Ukraine.
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Europe / NATO General - ORANGE *updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - Increasing potential that NATO will become involved in an Ukraine invasion as Poland, Romania and the Baltic Nations respond.

NATO meeting yesterday did very little other than a big rah-rah photo op. Support - military and humanitarian - were discussed. Among military assistance included discussions of anti-ship missiles for Ukraine.
Unified warning to Putin not to use NBC weapons.

Biden has Officially Stated at a Press Conference today at the NATO Headquarters in Brussels that if Russia uses Chemical Weapons in Ukraine that the U.S/NATO would “Respond in Kind”, though the Kind of Response would depend on the Nature of the Attack.
Biden was previously Quoted to have Stated that even if Russia used Non-Conventional Weapons in Ukraine such as Chemical Weapons that the U.S would still not Directly Respond, this Statement today represents a Significant Shift in U.S/NATO Stance on the Invasion.

The US and the EU have announced a major deal on liquified natural gas, in an attempt to reduce Europe’s reliance on Russian energy.
The agreement will see the US provide the EU with at least 15 billion additional cubic metres of the fuel - known as LNG - by the end of the year. The bloc has already said it will cut Russian gas use in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

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Israel - ORANGE trending neutral to upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Ongoing threat from Hezbollah and Iran continues.

Jordan’s King Abdullah plans to travel to Ramallah in the West Bank for a meeting with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, amid increasing tensions in the West Bank, and east Jerusalem ahead of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.
OBSERVATION - Visit designed to cut off political violence in the West Bank as new leadership is being elected. Hamas has made inroads radicalizing Palestinians in the West Bank and this creates friction with more moderate arabs. Right now the Palestinan authority is loosing ground to Hamas.

Russian Ambassador to Syria Alexander Efimov warned Thursday that Israeli strikes in Syria are “provoking” Russia to react, in one of the strongest Russian condemnations of Israeli operations in Syria.
OBSERVATION- Russia and Israel have been closely coordinating so Israeli air strikes of Hezbollah sites don’t hit Russians as well. Probably the fact that it acted to mediate the war on Ukrainian behalf has irritated Russia
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Iran - ORANGE and increasing *(updated 03-25-22)*

Iran is getting all it wants in nuclear negotiations with the US and renewed flow of money will enable it to resume a higher tempo of weapons (nuclear and conventional) development, arming Hezbollah and other proxy forces in the region and prepare for eventual conflict with Israel.
Recent missile attacks on Iraq and cyber attack on Israel show Iran is less fearful of retaliations.
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Saudi Arabia - YELLOW and increasing (Updated 03/25/22)

Houthi’s launched an attack on an Aramco Facility in Jeddah. Set an oil tank on fire. Same facility was targeted last week.
Houthi attacks have increased in recent days, probably reflecting greater support from Iran as US foreign policy weakens. Could be reflecting a new series of attacks on SA oil refineries and production.
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Syria - YELLOW

See Israel above on Russian impatience with Israel.
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Armenia/Azerbaijan - BLUE ( updated 03/25/22)

Reports of Azeri forces attacking Armenian cities because Russia has pulled out troops to fight in Ukraine has created a power vacuum and opportunity for renewed fighting in the region.
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Wuhan virus -

Moderna has announced plans to request Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for its pediatric COVID-19 vaccine, citing preliminary data showing the two-dose regimen was safe for children under age 6, including toddlers and infants.
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Economy -

The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage shot significantly higher Friday, rising 24 basis points to 4.95%, according to Mortgage News Daily.
OBSERVATION - The start of the popping of the housing market bubble. Houses too expensive to buy and loans too expensive to get.

Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Jefferies and now, Citigroup are expecting the Fed will boost interest rates by a half a percentage point during each of the next four meetings. And Citi left the door open for even more aggressive steps, such as big rate hikes at every remaining meeting this year.
OBSERVATION - Keep in mind that just a year ago, Fed officials indicated they saw no interest rate increases until at least 2024. Now, investors are bracing for six more rate hikes just this year.

The cost of lithium carbonate — a key ingredient used in the manufacturing of electric vehicle batteries and other low-carbon energy resources such as solar panels — has jumped 95% already in 2022, and is up almost 500% year-over-year.
According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, a leading price reporting agency, battery-grade lithium carbonate (EXW China, ≥99.5% Li2CO3) was averaging a whopping $76,700 a tonne in mid-March. During the same month last year, the metal was trading at $13,400 a tonne.
Benchmark reportedly added that based on reports out of China, things aren’t going to get any easier in the short term due to continued low inventory levels. China is a major producer of the mineral, selling nearly 20% of the world’s supply.
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Invasion of Illegals -

Senator James Lankford (R-OK) warned this week that the Biden administration plans to end Title 42, which enables the Department of Homeland Security to rapidly expel migrants during a public health emergency. The DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis is warning that up to a million migrants camped out at the southern border will attempt to cross within weeks.

Illegal migrants from Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Colombia are being released in the United States by orders from Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Mayorkas. A major release is underway and it is described as humanitarian parole. One exception to this release is single adults from Colombia. They are being expelled via Title 42 at the southern border.

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Biden / Harris watch -

biden - “You’re going to see when you’re there — some of you have been there — you’re going to see women, young people, standing in the middle, in front of a damn tank, saying, ‘I’m not leaving,’”
Latest gaff left the Wh sputtering to “correct” the statement, saying no US forces are going into Ukraine.
OBSERVATION - Russian propaganda promptly jumped on biden’s statement to claim it as proof of US intentions.

More gaffs - Biden mistakenly referred to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin as his secretary of state, also accidentally using Austin’s former military title. Biden made the error while thanking 82nd Airborne Division paratroopers stationed in Rzeszow, Poland, a NATO country, for their service amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine across the border.

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China -

Leaked documents made available today by Australia’s Defense Minister indicate the Solomon Islands recently entered a wide-ranging security pact with China. The agreement, which is currently awaiting approval by the Solomon Islands cabinet, would allow China to deploy armed police and military units to the island nation to protect its citizens and national interests. It also makes Solomon Islands port facilities available for Chinese naval and intelligence ships and opens the door for future permanent basing rights for China. The agreement also contains language which permits the secret deployment of Chinese military forces to the island nation and restricts both governments from discussing any such deployments publicly. The country, whose capital Honiara was rocked by anti-COVID and anti-China rioting during 2021, had signed a similar security pact with Australia just prior to Honiara switching allegiances to Beijing.

OBSERVATION - This will give China a key naval facility in the Pacific.

China’s Communist government is “increasingly involved in developing facilities and other infrastructure near strategic maritime chokepoints such as the Panama Canal and the Strait of Magellan (South America), General Laura Richardson, head of the U.S. Southern Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee on Thursday.
The general, in her written statement, said the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has “abused commercial agreements” in Asia, Africa and the Middle East, using host country ports for military purposes; and “our concern is that they are attempting to do the same right here in this region, close to our homeland.”
Richardson gave an example: “In Panama, PRC-based companies are engaged in or bidding for several projects related to the Panama Canal, a global strategic chokepoint, including port operations on both ends of the canal, water management, and a logistics park.” (CNS)

OBSERVATION - Global shopping control by China should things go sideways.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - On a propaganda level, Russia says objectives of the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine have largely been accomplished. On a practical level, Russian is concentrating its efforts to secure and expand the control over the Domgas region. The thought is that would provide good PR in the homeland protecting the separatists as well as increase its barganing chip in ceasefire talks.
This Russian narrative pivot is significant and being seen on the battlefield.
Stop and further note. This pivot states that Russian is now going to do what they said the war was all about in the first place. This is all for the consumption of the Russian public.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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RUMINT -
Reports of Russia issuing antidote to chemical warfare to soldiers in preparation for chemical attack in Ukraine.
OBSERVATION - The chemical ‘kit’ Ukraine has placed on display, many report is an old version perhaps as old a one end of the cold war (early 90s). If this it the case, the atropine injector may be way past shelf life. If these reports are true, Russian forces may be in as much danger from a Sarin attack as Ukrainian civilians and military. Russia is implicated in the use of Sarin in Syria, so it isn’t out of possibility for use.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu reportedly had a heart attack. However, , his ministry has released a clip of him addressing a meeting of senior generals. Reading from a script, and occasionally slurring his lines, Shoigu talked about the supply of weapons to troops in Ukraine.

Dmitry Medvedev, a former Russian president who is deputy chairman of the country’s security council, said Moscow could strike (nuclear) against an enemy that only used conventional weapons while Vladimir Putin’s defence minster claimed nuclear “readiness” was a priority.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- The Russian private military company Wagner have held talks with the Hezbollah on sending fighters to Ukraine. They reportedly agreed to send 800 Hezbollah fighters to Ukraine for combat operations. 200 should arrive till the end of March - Russian opposition newspaper Novaya Gazeta
- Alexei Sharov, colonel of the 810th Separate Guards Marine Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet, was killed by a Ukrainian sniper, according to Russian authorities.
- Reports of an unspecified Russian Eastern Military District forces establishing a field camp in the Chernobyl region
- US claims they are just now noticing troop movements out of separatist regions of Georgia, they just don’t know where they are headed.
OBSERVATION - My guess to reinforce forces trying to liberate Dombas
- Confirmed Ukraine’s defence ministry says another Russian general, Lt Gen Yakov Rezantsev, was killed in a strike near the southern city of Kherson. Rezantsev was the commander of Russia’s 49th combined army and the initial loss was noted yesterday. A western official said he was the seventh general to die in Ukraine, and the second lieutenant general - the highest rank officer reportedly killed.

Economic Impacts -
- The Biden Administration is set to impose a new round of sanctions, this time going after companies that are part of Russia’s military and intelligence procurement networks
- The UK has sanctioned 65 individuals and entities with supporting links to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including Kronshtadt, a Russian defence company and the main producer of Russia’s Orion drone and other unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru April 4h show a warming trend into the 50’s . Rain is forecast in the upcoming week. Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Kremlin says it will focus on ‘liberation’ of the Donbas region, in a sign it may be looking to end military campaign after weeks of stalemate. I’ve noted for many days the increase of Russian activity in this region. Essentially Russian forces are trying to press southward from Khariv and Izium to link up with Separatist forces moving northward and westward out of the Dombass region. However no significant northward (Separatist )movement has been noted while Russian forces have been struggling to move westward from the far eastern corner of Ukraine.

Mixed bag of action overnight. Ukraine continues to expand its buffer around Kyiv. Ukraine making progress in other parts of the country as well. Russia tries to press forward to isolate Ukrainian controlled Dombas region and close in on defenders in Mariupol.

Kyiv front -
Situation has become VERY fluid.
Attacks are being pressed to retake Hostomel, Bucha and Irpin. These attacks also serve to cut off the southern tip of the Russian salient. Russian forces are stationary and observed to be digging in defensively. Forward place Russian artillery continues to pound residential areas in and around Kyiv.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Russian forces may have established a nominal encirclement of Chernihiv and were bombarding areas where residents were stuck without electricity, heating and water. Ukraine military claims ongoing Russian efforts to encircle Chernihiv continue to be unsuccessful. Ukrainan forces have pushed Russian back in several sectors around the city. Russian forces are observed to be increasingly digging themselves in defensively.
No advance towards Kyiv, as logistics. manpower shortages prohibit any offensive actions.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Continued Russian efforts to isolate Sumy and Khariv, but sustaining heavy casualties in doing so. Ukrainian forces liberated the towns of Vil’khivka and Malaya Rohan’ just east outside Kharkiv.
Kharkiv and surround communities continue to face heavy bombardment of residential areas.

Ukraine forces are reported to have taken back a portion of Trostyanets, located 59 km (37 mi) east of Sumy. This important in that it controls a crossing of the Boromlya River that Russian forces have been using to bring supplies in from Russia.

Russian efforts to attack southward out of the Khariv area largely stalled. Attacks southward of Izyum gained some ground but facing stiff Ukrainian resistance. Russia utilizing most of its ground attack air power in this region.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Things continue desperate in Mariupol with intense street fighting ongoing. Some are likening it to Stalingrad.
Russia is slowly decreasing the area under Ukraine control, but facing difficult street by street, house to house fighting. Russia continued indiscriminate bombing/shelling of civilian areas. Russia has increased the number of naval vessels joining in the bombardment of the city.
OBSERVATION - Russian actions are going well beyond war crimes levels in Mariupol. Sadly those directing the bombing on civilians and forced displacement will never come to trial. Mariupol will not be able to hold out much longer and the presence of Chechen thugs will make life for the survivors a literal hell.

Efforts to fight northward to join southward advances out of Khariv and Izium areas is largely stalled. Fighting is intense along the LOC between Separatists and Ukraine without any significant advances.

Crimea Front -
Russian offensives towards Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia are stalled. It appears that Russia may be pulling back from Kryvyi Rih in response to the Ukrainian offensive towards Kherson.
Unconfirmed reports of as many as 5 BTGs being moved to the Zaporizhzhia region, possibly to stimulate further offensive to the north.

Growing evidence that Ukrainian forces have penetrated into Kherson and that the Russian forces no longer have full control of it. Senior US defense official: Pentagon “can’t corroborate exactly who is in control of Kherson” (southern Ukraine), but “it doesn’t appear to be as solidly in Russian control as it was before”
Ukraine is placing a high priority on the assault. “The Ukrainian Armed Forces will regain control over Kherson today,” said Markiyan Lubkivskyi, an adviser to Ukraine’s Defense Minister. The fog of war over the fight for this city hopefully will clear over the next few days.

US assesses that Russia has 22 ships in Black Sea, 15 of which are surface combatants, per a senior US defense official
Most of the rest are amphibious.
OBSERVATION - Are they miscounting amphibious ships? Counts I’ve seen an been reporting is 9 (prior to the loss of the ‘gator), not 7.

Western Ukraine -
3 - 4 probable cruse missiles hit a communications tower and fuel storage facility outside of Lviv, just hours before biden’s address in Poland.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -
Russia lacks the capability to resume offensive operations to encircle, let alone seize Kyiv or Odessa. It is struggling to even contain other significant cities in Eastern Ukraine after over a month of fighting. Accordingly, I expect even more indiscriminate bombing and artillery attacks on residential areas of these cities. Ukrainian forces to continue to push Russian forces away from Kyiv on the northwest, north and eastern areas. Increased potential for Ukraine to encircle Russian forces to the north west of the city. over the course of the next week.

Conditions will continue to degrade in Mariupol and civilian losses are almost incalculable at this stage. Barring something significant, Russia will eventually take the ruins of the city. Loss of Mariupol would cement the Russian ‘land bridge’ between Crimea and Domabas and be a significant bargaining chip in peace talks.

Ukraine is poised to retake Kherson in the nest week. Russian loss of Generals and senior commanders in the area has hamstrung command and control. The Crimea front doesn’t look capable of continuing offensive operations to push into the Dombass region or encircle Odessa.
Potential for an amphibious assault is out of the question for now. I expect increased missile/bombing efforts on Odessa and surrounding cities.

Russia looks to continue to push in the Dombass region and I expect fighting to intensify as now liberating the area is the new announced goal of the Russian war effort.
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Poland -

biden meeting with Polish leadership today.
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Europe / NATO General -

French President Emmanuel Macron says that France, Turkey, Greece will carry out an “exceptional humanitarian operation” “for all those who want to leave” the Ukrainian city of Mariupol, which has faced near total destruction after an unrelenting Russian bombing campaign
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Iran -

Following the Houthi attack on an Aramco facility in Jeddah, pictures of the rebel group’s leaders were projected on Tehran’s iconic Azadi Tower. Some Iranian outlets say this was done to mark the seventh anniversary of the Yemen war.

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Saudi Arabia -

The Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen began a military operation on Saturday to stop attacks on its oil facilities and “protect global energy sources,” Saudi state media reported Attacks focusing on Yemen’s Sanaa and Hodeidah areas.

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Armenia/Azerbaijan -

Twitter vid - Azerbaijani officer states to a Russian commander in the Karabakh region that “the same agreement that Russian President Putin signed” obliges Armenian soldiers to leave the region on the basis of the trilateral agreement.
OBSERVATION - Removal of Russian ‘peace keeping’ forces to Ukraine is destabilizing this region.
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Globalism / Great Reset -

Apple Inc. is working on a subscription service for the iPhone and other hardware products, a move that could make device ownership similar to paying a monthly app fee, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The service would be Apple’s biggest push yet into automatically recurring sales, allowing users to subscribe to hardware for the first time — rather than just digital services. But the project is still in development, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the initiative hasn’t been announced.
OBSERVATION - This is the model that Klaus Schwab and his WEF minions have been promoting for literally everything. “Why own a refrigerator when you could just lease it?”
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Wuhan virus -

Biden administration may suggest a second COVID-19 vaccine booster shot for Americans over the age of 50 in the next week, the New York Times reported Friday.
According to the report, the administration will simply “suggest” that older Americans get the second booster shot of the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine instead of “recommending” it like it did in the past for the first booster.
OBSERVATION - Moderating the ‘warning’ probably reflects that the administration has lost its fear mongering traction on the issue, with the citizenry being fed up and ready to move on with their lives. Ukraine also has taken the edge away from this issue.

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Biden / Harris watch -

biden managed to make Harris’ visit to Poland look good. After the screw up implying that US forces will be entering Ukraine, biden let an even bigger dumpster fire.
Following what many could consider a good speech, biden went brain dead and off script. Biden ended his speech in Poland with a seeming call for regime change as he declared that “for God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power.
Shortly after Biden’s address however, the White House denied that Biden was calling for regime change.
The President’s point was that Putin cannot be allowed to exercise power over his neighbors or the region. He was not discussing Putin’s power in Russia, or regime change,” a White House official told Fox News Digital shortly after the speech concluded.
White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki previously insisted the White House is “not advocating for killing the leader of a foreign country or regime change.”
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has denied that the United States has any plans to bring about regime change in Russia or anywhere else.
Richard Haass, the Council on Foreign Relations president, tweeted his concerns that Biden had ‘just expanded US war aims, calling for regime change.’ ‘However desirable it may be, it is not within our power to accomplish-plus runs risk it will increase Putin’s inclination to see this as a fight to the finish, raising odds he will reject compromise, escalate, or both,’ wrote Haass.
‘Our interests are to end the war on terms Ukraine can accept & to discourage Russian escalation. Today’s call for regime change is inconsistent with these ends,’ he added.

biden further stirred the pot yesterday by calling Putin a “butcher” causing several European leaders, including France’s Macron to back away from it.

OBSERVATION - biden’s gaff-a-rama displayed to the world the decaying mental facilities of this president. It makes me wonder if the powers that be will accelerate efforts to remove him before he hurts the democrat party further - leaving them with another mental midget to deal with - Harris.

OH AND THERES MORE -
White House officials have repeatedly stated over recent months that the purpose of threatening sanctions against the Russian government as it appeared to be preparing to invade Ukraine was one of “deterrence.”
However, under questioning by reporters in Poland, biden said - “Let’s get something straight,” “You remember, if you’ve covered me from the beginning, I did not say that, in fact, the sanctions would deter him. Sanctions never deter. You keep talking about that.”
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CW2/Domestic violence -

No significant violence by Antifa at yesterdays’s March for Freedom in Seattle. Antifa had been preparing for weeks to violently stop the march. They are prepared to be arrested & have been sharing the hotline number for the National Lawyer’s Guild, a far-left legal group that helps their violent comrades who are arrested & prosecuted.
OBSERVATION - Antifa threats did succeed to cause one group in the march to drop out participating out of concern for safety of women and children. Antifa turnout OTOH was minimal, not really enough to carry out the violent threats made in the lead up.
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Domestic Terror -

An 18-year-old Maine man and two other teens, one in Chicago and another in Kentucky, conspired to attack a Chicago mosque with homemade explosives this month, new court documents reveal - until the FBI unraveled the plot.
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North Korea -

North Korea working on “shortcut” to tunnel at Punggye-ri nuclear test site, apparently aimed at making speedy preparations for a seventh underground nuclear test, according to government sources in South Korea on Sunday- Yonhap
OBSERVATION - This would be their first test in 5 years. With a viable ICBM, NK needs a viable warhead, which is what I suspect they are planning to test, soon.

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Japan -

GENERAL NOTE - Watching for the response to a NK nuclear test. Previous tests were believed to have pushed Japan into contemplating their own nuclear program, which could be the start a regional nuclear arms race.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia is switching to a defensive posture over most of the territory seized from Ukraine. This is largely due to units no longer being combat effective as well as diverting resources to the effort to seize the greater Dombas region - the “reason” for the invasion in the first place.
Russia is becoming more aggressive in strategic strikes into western Ukraine to disrupt food, fuel, maintenance/repair and resupply lines from Poland.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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RUMINT -
Ukraine military is citing Russian propaganda that Russia seeks to end hostilities before May 9th - in recognition of WW2 VE celebrations .

Logistics - ‘
- Reports bordering on RUMINT are that the Russian Army command is failing to reinforce troops in Ukraine with workable tanks and APCs from the storages because optics, electronics, engine parts on the majority of them were stolen.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Russian units that took heavy casualties near Kyiv may have returned to Belarus to “restore combat capability”. This restoration likely consists of creating new BTGs out of the remnants.
- Wagner Group mercenaries have been identified fighting in the Dombas region, specifically around Izyum
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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru April 5th cooling into the 40’s with rain. Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Russia has expanded its ‘deep’ attacks via cruse missiles into Western Ukraine - details below. Ukraine offensive actions around Kyiv and towards Kherson continue to make gains. Fiercer fighting in southeastern Ukraine’s Dombas (Luhansk) Region as Russia switches its ground operation goals to the seizure and control of his area.

Kyiv front -
Situation has become VERY fluid.
Attacks continue to make gains in the effort to retake Hostomel, Bucha and Irpin. Russian forces have dug in but are facing a more tactically mobile Ukraine force. Kyiv was relatively quiet overnight, getting a break from the bombing and artillery of recent.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Fight over the encirclement of Chernihiv by Russia continues. However, Ukrainan forces have pushed Russian back in several sectors around the city. Russian forces are observed to be increasingly digging themselves in defensively.
No advance towards Kyiv, as logistics. manpower shortages prohibit any offensive actions.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Focus on action has switched to Russian efforts to attack southward out of the Khariv area. Attacks southward of Izyum gained some ground but facing stiff Ukrainian resistance. Russia utilizing most of its ground attack air power in this region.
Wagner Group mercenaries have been identified in the Izyumm area. These forces are considerably better trained and lead than the regular Russian forces and their presence here confirms the switch in Russian priorities.

In the Kharkiv region, Russian forces reportedly used the rocket mining system “Земледелие”. Utilizes rockets to deploy a mine payload at distance.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Things continue desperate in Mariupol with intense street fighting ongoing. Some are likening it to Stalingrad.
The Mayor’s office estimated civilian death toll in Mariupol at 20,000. Videos on twitter and elsewhere show large numbers of bodies lying in the street, with combat conditions too dangerous for them to be clear out. Most are unarmed - implying that they are civilians. Hundreds and more believed to be buried under the rubble of residential areas bombed by Russian forces.

Russia is slowly decreasing the area under Ukraine control, but facing difficult street by street, house to house fighting. Russia continued indiscriminate bombing/shelling of civilian areas. Russia has increased the number of naval vessels joining in the bombardment of the city.

Efforts to fight northward out of separatist held areas to join advances out of Khariv and Izium areas is largely stalled. Fighting is intense along the LOC between Separatists and Ukraine without any significant advances. There are unconfirmed reports that offensive actions by Russian Forces in the Luhansk Region has failed with the capture of numerous Russian soldiers and equipment.

Crimea Front -
Russian offensives towards Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia are stalled. It appears that Russia may be pulling back from Kryvyi Rih in response to the Ukrainian offensive towards Kherson.

Ukrainian forces have reportedly retaken towns to the east of Kherson which would start to cut the Russian forces off from their Crimean base. However, it doesn’t appear that Ukraine attained its claim to retake Kherson yesterday.

Reports that Ukraine repulsed an attempt by a small group of Russians marines to land in Odesa region. This was likely an attempt to place special forces to start sabotaging Ukraine coastal defenses and find weakness. Russia currently doesn’t have the capability to launch an amphibious assault anytime soon.

Reports that Russian naval assets have pulled back closer to Crimea, presumably under land based ADA assets following the loss of a ‘gator class landing craft in a captured Ukrainian port. ADA missiles were active over Sebastinapol shooting at what is believed to have been a Ukrainian drone. The loss of the ship as put some fear of losing others to the TB-2 strikes as Russia increasingly is relying on misslies launched from its surface combatants to supplement air launched missiles.

Western Ukraine -
NOTE - I added this section in yesterday’s report as it appears that this region - more than half of the country - is coming under Russian crosshairs.

Yesterday, Russian cruse missiles strikes were aimed at oil refineries and storage locations in western Ukraine today, notably in Dubno and Lviv. Also targeted were food storage and maintenance/repair facilities. A handful of civilians were reported to have been killed.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -
Russia lacks the capability to resume offensive operations to encircle, let alone seize Kyiv or Odessa. It appears that Russia has dropped that effort in order to focus its efforts in Eastern Ukraine, where Russia hopes to encircle and defeat Ukrainian forces in the Dombas region. Russian forces elsewhere have switched to defensive operations so that resources can be focused there.

Russian long range missile attack into western Ukraine, and particularly in the vicinity of Lviv will continue and possibly increase as Russia seeks to disrupt resupply efforts to eastern Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces to continue offensive operations to expand its defensive zone around Kyiv and push towards Kherson in the south. Those operations may be reduced depending on the need to send resources into the Domabas region to counter the renewed Russian offensive efforts there.

Russia doesn’t have the capability to conduct amphibious operations against Odessa in the foreseeable future. I expect to see increased missile/bombing efforts on Odessa and surrounding cities.

As as for the past several weeks, Russia will continue to bomb and shell residential areas of cities - large and small - in an effort to demoralize the will of Ukraine and exact a degree of vengeance for its military losses.
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Belarus -

Per the Ukrainian MOD, units of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus are conducting combat training activities at five training grounds in the Brest, Minsk, and Grodno regions (within Belarus).
OBSERVATION - These exercises could be similar to those Russia conducted prior to the invasion. They would serve to bring the tactical training status to a higher level, prior to entering the conflict.
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Europe / NATO General -

French President Emmanuel Macron said he “would not use those words” after US President Joe Biden called the Russian leader a “butcher” over the war in Ukraine.
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Israel -

Israel warns that the ongoing nuclear talks with Iran are not going to achieve the goal of a nuclear free Iran and will destabilize the region even more.
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Iran -

Top EU diplomat Josep Borrell said on Saturday Iran and world powers were “very close” to agreement on reviving their 2015 nuclear deal, which would curb Tehran’s nuclear program in exchange for lifting tough sanctions.
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Saudi Arabia -

A day after a wave of Huthi drone and missile attacks on Saudi targets, including an oil plant that turned into an inferno near the Formula One race in Jeddah, political leader Mahdi al-Mashat put rebel operations on hold.
“And we are ready to turn this declaration into a final and permanent commitment in the event that Saudi Arabia commits to ending the siege and stopping its raids on Yemen once and for all,” he said.
There was no immediate response from Saudi Arabia, which retaliated to Friday’s attacks by launching air strikes against Sanaa and Hodeida and destroying four explosives-laden boats.
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Syria -

The Pro-Assad forces targeted an armored vehicle belonging to the Turkish forces in the Atarib region, west of Aleppo. Dozens of Turkish soldiers were reportedly killed in strike. There were injuries in the attack. Turks struck the government positions with artillery fire as a retaliation. Syrian regime’s attack on Turkish troops, despite the de-escalation agreement, is the biggest in 2 years.
OBSERVATION - Another location where Russia has pulled troops out for Ukraine and things are getting froggy.
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Turkey -

Turkey’s presidential spokesman says the international community must still talk to Russia in order to end the war in Ukraine.
“If everybody burns bridges with Russia then who is going to talk to them at the end of the day,” Ibrahim Kalin told the Doha international forum.
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Armenia/Azerbaijan -

Head of the Armenian NKR forces in the Karabakh region, Arayik Harutyunyan signed a decree on the introduction of martial law. Escalation ongoing in the Caucasus region. This apparently was in response to killed and wounded among Karabakh Armenians as Azerbaijan launched an “offensive.”

“In violation of the provisions of the trilateral statement, the Azerbaijani military entered the Russian peacekeeper zone of responsibility on March 24 and 25. They also carried out 4 strikes against armed formations in Nagorno-Karabakh by Bayraktar TB-2.” - Russian Ministry of Defense

OBSERVATION - I was going to drop this region off my watch list, until all this started happening last week. The sucking sound of Russian forces being pulled out for Ukraine appears to be replaced by the rushing sound of Azeri forces looking to take more land.
____________________________________

________________________________

Globalism / Great Reset -

Bill Gates expounded upon how people should eat in an interview with MIT Technology Review.
“I do think all rich countries should move to 100 percent synthetic beef. You can get used to the taste difference, and the claim is they’re going to make it taste even better over time,” he said.

“I do think all rich countries should move to 100 percent synthetic beef. You can get used to the taste difference, and the claim is they’re going to make it taste even better over time,” he said.

Gates said governmental compulsion is an option.
“Eventually, that green premium is modest enough that you can sort of change the [behavior of] people or use regulation to totally shift the demand,” he said
While richer nations eat fake beef, genetically altered animals will provide meat for other places, such as Africa, he said.

OBSERVATION - “Let them eat cake”
_____________________________

Wuhan virus -

China’s financial hub of Shanghai launched a planned two-stage lockdown of the city of 26 million people on Monday, closing bridges and tunnels, and restricting highway traffic in a scramble to contain surging local COVID-19 cases.
The snap lockdown, announced by Shanghai’s city government on Sunday, will split the city in two roughly along the Huangpu River for nine days to allow for “staggered” testing. It is the biggest COVID-related disruption to hit the city so far.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration is no longer authorizing the monoclonal antibody treatment sotrovimab in 10 states and territories due to questions about its effectiveness against the BA.2 Omicron subvariant. The new subvariant accounts for more than 50% of all COVID-19 variants in the eight states and two territories listed by the agency. Healthcare providers will no longer be able to treat patients with sotrovimab in those areas, and in other regions, they are instructed to monitor the BA.2 subvariant before deciding which antibody treatment to proscribe.
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Economy -

Global oil prices have fallen as China starts to implement a city-wide lockdown in Shanghai, an important financial and manufacturing hub.
Brent crude lost more than $4.50 a barrel at $115.80 a barrel on concerns that the move would mean that demand for oil will fall. Despite the fall, oil remains almost 80% higher than it was a year ago after the war in Ukraine helped to drive up prices.

Biden’s “Billionaire Minimum Income Tax” proposal would set a 20 percent tax rate floor on Americans worth more than $100 million — hitting not only their stated income, but also their unrealized gains on stock holdings and other forms of wealth.
The plan will be included in the budget proposal that the White House will roll out Monday.
Biden’s new tax could raise up to $360 billion over 10 years, say the aides who developed it, and would fall on the richest 700 Americans.
Another detail of the proposed tax hike should also run into opposition and a likely court challenge. The description of the amount of “income” to be taxed includes the phrase “unrealized investment income.” In other words, if the shares comprising your retirement plan or your stock portfolio go up by a given percentage, that increase will be treated as income and you’ll be taxed on it even though you haven’t cashed it in yet.

OBSERVATION - This is a sop to the rabid progressive wing the democrat party. It is unlikely that this will pass congress. One of the most incredible parts of this plan is the intention to tax unrealized gains.
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Biden / Harris watch -

WH still scrambling to walk back the numerous biden gaffs in Ukraine.

President Biden’s job-approval rating has plummeted to the lowest of his White House tenure. The number of Americans who approve of Biden’s actions since he took the helm of the country in January 2021 has fallen to 40% – the lowest of his presidency and a dramatic 13 percentage-point drop from April 2021, the NBC News poll shows.
OBSERVATION - This is from biden friendly NBC, makes you wonder what the real numbers are.
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China -

See Shanghai lockdown under Wuhan above.
____________________________________

Japan -

The Japanese Yen (world’s third most-traded & third-largest reserve currency) is on track for one of its worst months ever.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********

RUMINT -
I’m not going into details of a Russian released video claiming Ukraine forces shot Russian POWs in the legs. There has been quite the discussion of the video on the inter webs that have generally resulted in the video being defined as faked / Russian propaganda. General consensus that Ukraine needs to throughly investigate it as well. I am one of those who think the video is fake due to many discrepancies.

Logistics -
- Logistical issues still plague Russian forces and is one of the major contributors to Russian failures to pursue / maintain offensive operations.
- Conservative estimates that Russia has lost close to 2200 vehicles and other pieces of (heavy) military equipment since it began its invasion of #Ukraine a month ago.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- From the northern Ukraine’s area near capital Kyiv, Russia reportedly withdrew two battalions of the 106th air-paratrooper division (VDV) from the northern area near Kylv to Belarus. It is believed this is due to having suffered significant losses during recent Ukrainian counterattacks.
OBSERVATION - VDV forces have been the tip of the Russian spear in this war and has suffered heavy personnel and equipment losses, not only in the Kyiv fight but also now that Crimean operations have stalled.

Economic Impacts -
- Pavel Zavalny, who serves as Chairman of the Russian Energy Committee, has stated that his country will consider taking Bitcoin as payment for energy exports.
- G7 rejects paying for Russian natural gas in rubles.

____________________________________

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru April 5th cooling into the 40’s with rain. Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
UK MOD update- “Ongoing logistical shortages have been compounded by a continued lack of momentum and morale amongst the Russian military, and aggressive fighting by the Ukrainians.”

More heavy artillery and bombing/missile attacks on residential areas of numerous Ukrainian cities.

Reuters quoted an adviser to the Ukrainian Interior Ministry: We do not expect substantial progress in negotiations with the Russian side.

Ukraine says it won’t open humanitarian corridors from its cities on Monday due to warnings of Russian “provocations” on routes. In the past these ‘provocations “ have been Russian artillery shelling the evacuation routes.

Kyiv front -
Situation has become VERY fluid.
Overnight Kyiv and surrounding communities went through another night of intense bombing and artillery fire.
Russia has reportedly launched an attempt to break through defenses near Kyiv according to Ukraine’s Armed Forces. Russian troops are attempting to advance on Kyiv from the northwest and east, capturing nearby roads and villages. However, Russian gains are reportedly to be limited.

OBSERVATION - Most view this action as an attempt to break contact and withdraw Russian forces. Russia does not have the capability to make any significant advances in this area.

Ukrainan forces continue the pressure to cut off Russian forces on the southern tip of the salient.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Fight over the encirclement of Chernihiv by Russia continues. Forces made little territorial gains. Chernihv and surrounding communities continued to receive intense bombing and artillery fire into residential areas.

Attempts by Russian forces to advance on Kyiv - see above.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
UK intel update: “Russian forces appear to be concentrating their effort to attempt the encirclement of Ukrainian forces directly facing the separatist regions in the east of the country, advancing from the direction of Kharkiv in the north and Mariupol in the south.”
Heavy fighting near Izyum continues with the goal to cut off Ukraine forces in the Dombas region.

Ukrainian defenders have liberated Trostyanets and Husarivka from Russian forces. Reports that the Ukrainian army is in Slavhorod and Krasnopolia, drove Russian forces back to the international border in Sumy region. In the process, Ukrainian forces reportedly mauled the 4th Guards Tank Division. Losses of T80 tanks alone in this division was estimated to be 25% of T-80s in its 12th + 13th tank regiments. Ukraine forces also captured a considerable amount of ammunition and other supplies.
Russia’s elite 4th Guards forged a fearsome reputation in Second World War battles but have been reduced to smoking wreckage in Trostyanets.

Trostyanets action separates Russian forces around Kharkiv from the rest of the front to the south. .

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Things continue desperate in Mariupol with intense street fighting ongoing. Some are likening it to Stalingrad.
Ukrainian control of the city has been reduced to about 60%. Reports indicate that virtually 100% of the residential buildings in the city and surrounding suburbs have been rendered unlivable and rubbled. Reports - confirmed and unconfirmed - of Russians taking captured civilians from the area and importing them into holding camps in Russia.

Efforts to fight northward to join advances out of Khariv and Izium areas are largely stalled. Fighting is intense along the LOC between Separatists and Ukraine with some Russian advances into Ukrainian cites along the LOC . Russian redoubled attacks in the Luhansk Region with a lot of air strikes. Russian forces made very little progress though.

Crimea Front -
Russian offensives towards Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia are stalled.

Ukrainian forces continue to press on to Kherson .

Russia is maintaining a distant blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea coast, effectively isolating Ukraine from international maritime trade. Russian naval forces are also continuing to conduct sporadic missile strikes against targets throughout Ukraine.” - UK MOD intel assessment.
Surface combatants appear to have withdrawn to off the coast of Sevastopol, Crimea since the Ukraine strike that sunk the amphibious assault ship Saratov last week. This is believed of due to the air defense cover at Sevastopol.

Western Ukraine -
Multiple Explosions being reported in the Northwestern Ukrainian city of Lutsk from Russian Air/Missile Strikes, most likely these strikes are from missiles that were claimed to have been seen fired from inside the Brest Region of Belarus earlier.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -
Situation largely unchanged.
Russia lacks the capability to resume offensive operations to encircle, let alone seize Kyiv or Odessa. Current Russian attempts to press towards Kyiv lack the strength necessary to push very far and may be an attempt to free up the withdrawal of Russian forces. Russian forces will continue to focus its efforts in Eastern Ukraine, where Russia hopes to encircle and defeat Ukrainian forces in the Dombas region. Russian forces elsewhere have switched to defensive operations so that resources can be focused there.

Ukrainian forces to continue offensive operations to expand its defensive zone around Kyiv and push towards Kherson in the south. Those operations my be reduces depending on the need to send resources into the Domabas region to counter the renewed Russian offensive efforts there.

Russia doesn’t have the capability to conduct amphibious operations against Odessa in the foreseeable future. I expect to see increased missile/bombing efforts on Odessa and surrounding cities.
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Europe / NATO General -

Estonia’s Interior Minister has warned that Russia’s influence operations have accelerated in recent weeks
Russia is reportedly recruiting spies to assess Estonian border security and how easy it is to penetrate the border

A reminder that NATO is paying close attention to actions in Ukraine with a lot of airborne assets.
-Swedish Air Force GIV Korpen SVF645
-USAF RC-135W Rivet Joint HOMER11
-USAF E-8C Joint STARS REDEYE6
-USAF RQ4 Global Hawk FORTE11
-USAF RC-135W Rivet Joint JAKE11
-NATO E3 AWACS NATO01
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Israel -

ISIS officially claimed responsibility for attack in northern central Israeli city of Hadera that killed 2 and wounded 4. This is the first time it has taken credit for an attack in Israel since June 2017.

Israeli and Arab partners convened for a rare summit in Israel on Sunday attended by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who sought to reassure the U.S. allies over Washington’s diplomacy with Iran. Israel has reportedly raised its defense readiness in the south of the country amid concerns of aerial threats during this unprecedented diplomatic summit.
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Iraq -

Pro Iranian militias attacked the KDP office in Baghdad and set it on fire. The attack was linked to the formation of the new Iraqi Cabinet. This is the second time that KDP office in Baghdad set on fire within a year.
_________________________________

Syria -

Russian warplanes target the southern outskirts of the town of Maarat al-Naasan, east of Idlib city, with several air raids
OBSERVATION - This is the largest Russian attack in Syria since the Ukraine war began.
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Armenia/Azerbaijan -

Azerbaijani Defense Ministry: “Russian MoD’s statement shows disrespect to the signed declaration” There have been no changes in the positions of the Azerbaijani Army in Farrukh village and surrounding heights. The Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Azerbaijan regrets that the points reflected in the statement of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation dated March 27, 2022 are not true.

OBSERVATION - Situation is still tense and without the additional Russian muscle to deter the Azeri’s the potential for more violence to break out remains high.
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I’m a little groggy this morning. Had a SAR call out to find a couple of lost individuals last night. I’ve tried to prevent fat fingering from messing things up.
________________________________

Invasion of Illegals -

Biden’s budget request asks Congress for at least $12 billion extra to accelerate the inflow of economic migrants into Americans’ jobs and homes but minimizes the requests for anti-drug efforts, border enforcement, and deportations.
The budget request “completely flips the script” for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), said Robert Law, a former DHS official who now works at the Center for Immigration Studies.

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Biden / Harris watch -

biden initially walked his Russia comments back, then he unwalled them and doubled down.

New harris word salad - “Well first of all we’ve been, um, you know, understanding that it is a real issue, um, what we have done is we’ve actually released some of the reserves, the petroleum reserves to bring down the cost of gas prices. And we are also dealing with – the cost of gas is just part of the issue of the cost of living, right?” Harris said. “It’s too expensive for too many people.”
___________________________

Strategic Activity / Deployments -

The Kearsarge Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) has crossed the “chop” line into 6th Fleet and is in the Middle of the Atlantic. Two of the three-ship Kearsarge Amphibious Ready Group deployed on March 16 from Naval Station Norfolk, Va., and Camp Lejeune, N.C., according to U.S. 2nd Fleet. USS Kearsarge (LHD-3) and USS Arlington (LPD-24) left the East Coast with Marine Expeditionary Unit 22 embarked. The third amphib, USS Gunston Hall (LSD-44), is set to deploy later this month from Joint Base Little Creek-Fort Story, Va.
It’s unclear if Kearsarge will be part of the ongoing NATO presence operations as the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues.

Aircraft Carrier USS Abraham Lincoln has entered the South China Sea on Friday, prior to the US and Philippines exercises called “Balikatan 22” that are set to take place from March 28 to April 8th, 2022 and will involve around 8,900 members of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and 5,100 U.S. military personnel according to U.S. Indo-Pacific Command

The United States Department of Defense announced that they would be deploying 6 of the Navy’s EA-18G Growler Electronic Warfare Aircraft as well as around 250 Navy Personnel to Spangdahlem Air Base in Germany before being Forward Deployed to NATOs Eastern Flank. The VAQ134 Garudas are an expeditionary squadron that don’t normally deploy on carriers
OBSERVATION- These Aircraft use Jamming Pods and AGM-88 HARM Tactical Anti-Radiation Missiles to detect and destroy Enemy Air Defense System’s as well as any Ground Based Radar Detection Sites, they would be very useful for a Military that was trying to Implement some sort of No-Fly Zone.
_________________________________

China -

China has accused the United States of increasing spy activity in the South China Sea after the US deployed three surveillance vessels and the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln in the region ahead of joint exercises with the Philippines
____________________________________

Japan -

North Korea’s launch of its new ICBM last Thursday has prompted Tokyo to re-examine shooting down missiles that threaten Japanese territory — something Japan has never done.

____________________________________

Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war. 34 days to complete a 2 day operation.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********

Peace talks being in Istanbul Turkey.

Russia’s deputy defense minister says Moscow has decided to “fundamentally cut back military activity in the direction of Kyiv and Chernigiv” in order to “increase mutual trust for future negotiations to agree and sign a peace deal with Ukraine.”

Putin spokesman: “No one is thinking about using - even about the idea of using - a nuclear weapon.”
NOTE - Putin also said they weren’t going to invade Ukraine too

RUMINT -
Bellingcat can confirm that three members of the delegation attending the peace talks between Ukraine and Russia on the night of 3 to 4 March 2022 experienced symptoms consistent with poisoning with chemical weapons. One of victims was Russian entrepreneur Roman Abramovich.
Bellingcat reports Russian Defense Minister Shoigu and other senior Russian officials including possibly President Putin are residing in nuclear bunkers in the Ural mountains.
OBSERVATION - This “Bellingcat” source reportedly has a good degree of credibility, but I’m holding in this RUMINT category until I can verify this from other sources.

Logistics -
- Rechitsa, Belarus, a large number of Russian IFVs including BMDs and BMPs are observed in a storge area. Probably about 1-2 days drive to the NW suburbs of Kyiv (if they have the fuel).

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Russian Private Military Company the Wagner Group has deployed to eastern Ukraine with more than 1,000 mercenaries, including senior leaders of the organization, to undertake combat operations. Due to heavy losses and a largely stalled invasion, Russia has likely been forced to reprioritize Wagner personnel for Ukraine at the expense of operations in Africa and Syria.
- Unconfirmed - According to Intel. Dept. of Ukraine MoD, beginning from April 1, Russia opens a draft of ~100K reservists with combat experience to send them to war in #Ukraine. This draft will be simultaneous with the spring conscription of the 18-year-old Russian men
- Russian government has granted a waiver from army service to all tech experts of draft age. This is an attempt to stop mass flight triggered by war in Ukraine.

Economic Impacts -
- The Central Bank of Russia has officially announced that, as of March 28, 2022, the Russian Ruble currency is BOUND to Gold. The rate is 5,000 Rubles per gram of gold bullion.
- A senior Russian Federation Council member warns that if EU countries don’t buy gas in rubles, gas supplies will be terminated
- Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Investment Company is pausing investments in Russia, which represent less than 1% of its portfolio, because of the Ukraine crisis, the chief executive of the $243 billion sovereign wealth fund said on Monday.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru April 5th cooling into the 40’s with rain. Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Peace talks between Ukraine and Russia began today in Turkey. Russia announced that they are ceasing operations in northern Ukraine as a good faith measure. Intense fighting in the Dombas region as well as Mariupol, which is on the verge of falling to Russian forces. With Russian forces digging in, they are doing better job fighting. Growing evidence that forward Russian forces are being pulled back in many sectors and consolidating. The purpose would be to secure gains and resupply depleted units. Other Russian forces now being observed moving to the Dombas region, with numerous convoys observed departing Mykoliv area and heading east.
Superimposed on all of his - continued air and missile attacks on residential areas of towns and cities.

Kyiv front -
Situation has become VERY fluid.
The Mayor of Irpin,, has just announced that after heavy fighting the entire city has been liberated from Russian Control, Ukrainian Para-Military and Military are now free to advance north on the strategically important towns of Hostomel and Bucha.
There are reports that Alpha 1, a Ukrainian Foreign Legion team of multinational special operations soldiers, including American volunteers, took part in the liberation of Irpin.

Kyiv suburbs faced even more artillery fire, striking predominantly residential areas.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Area also under Russian operation “cessation”. Russian forces are incapable of launching or sustaining an offensive to seize Kyiv and and any further focus will be on Chernihv.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Fierce fighting in the effort to cut off the Dombas region. Russian forces have made very little progress against Ukrainan defensive operations.

Ukrainian forces, including the Georgian National Legion, liberated a town called Rudnyts’ke, about 60 km east of Kyiv, pushing the line about 15 km farther to the east.

The defeat of the 4th GTA at Trostyanets this week cost the Russian army most of its most modern T-80 tanks.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Mariupol is close to falling to Russian forces who’ve managed to essentially cut the pocket in half. The following link provides a visual of the situation.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FO9xF3gXIAAAgud?format=jpg&name=small
The city suffered through another night of intense bombing and missile attacks with very few buildings currently intact. Casualities continue to climb. -
- 170,000 residents are still trapped in the besieged town;
- officially, 5,000 people killed, including 210 kids;
- 2,000+ residential blocks destroyed;
- 60,000+ private houses destroyed

Crimea Front -
Russian offensives towards Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia are stopped and unable to support cutting off Dombas region.

Ukrainian forces continue to press on to Kherson . Russia may be pulling forces from Mykoliv for use at Mariupol

Surface combatants appear to have withdrawn to off the coast of Sevastopol, Crimea since the Ukraine strike that sunk the amphibious assault ship Saratov last week. This is believed of due to the air defense cover at Sevastopol.

Amphibious operations continue to be out of the question.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -
Situation largely unchanged.

Russia lacks the capability to resume offensive operations to encircle, let alone seize Kyiv or Odessa. Current Russian attempts to press towards Kyiv lack the strength necessary to push very far and may be an attempt to free up the withdrawal of Russian forces. Russian forces will continue to focus its efforts in Eastern Ukraine, where Russia hopes to encircle and defeat Ukrainian forces in the Dombas region. Russian forces elsewhere have switched to defensive operations so that resources can be focused there.

Russia doesn’t have the capability to conduct amphibious operations against Odessa in the foreseeable future. I expect to see increased missile/bombing efforts on Odessa and surrounding cities.

Finally, I assess that Russian is going to do what they can to build an offensive in the Dombass.
___________________________________

Belarus -

The “rail war” on the Belarusian railway continues with reportedly two accidents in 3 days. At least 4 employees have been arrested. Other employees’ apartments have been searched, and they’ve been interrogated.
______________________________________

Pakistan -

Growing political crisis.
Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan alleges international conspiracy against him, accuses foreign forces of funding his enemies to topple his government. Iranian state-owned news network “Press TV” minces no words, says the unnamed foreign power here is clearly the United States
____________________________________

Iran -

A new potential reason for Iran’s missile attack on Iraq. A nascent plan for Iraq’s Kurdistan region to supply gas to Turkey and Europe - with Israeli help - may have angered Iran and caused them to strike the Kurdish capital Erbil with ballistic missiles this month, Iraqi and Turkish officials say.
NOTE - the villa that Iran claimed to be a Mossad training facility belonged to an Iraqi petroleum/natural gas company executive.

__________________________________

Wuhan virus -

White House chief medical adviser Dr. Anthony Fauci on Sunday warned about the potential for the reinstatement of COVID-19 restrictions in the U.S. In an interview on the BBC’s “Sunday Morning,” Fauci said U.S. residents “need to be prepared for the possibility” of restrictions being put back into place.
OBSERVATION - Continued wuhan maneuvering under the cover of the Ukraine war.
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Economy -

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 19.2% annual gain in January, up from 18.9% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 17.5%, up from 17.1% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 19.1% year-over-year gain, up from 18.6% in the previous month.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said the contract rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage shot to 4.8% in the week ended March 25 from 4.5% a week earlier. That was the largest one-week increase since February 2011, and it brought mortgage rates to their highest level since December 2018.

Inflation will mean the average U.S. household has to spend an extra $5,200 this year ($433 per month) compared to last year for the same consumption basket, according estimates by Bloomberg Economics.

OBSERVATIONS - Forecast for housing looks pretty rough as we move into spring/summer prime selling season. Many home ‘flippers’ may soon find themselves heavily in debt with property they can’t sell at the inflated prices they seek.
______________________________

Invasion of Illegals -

In preparation for a possible post-Title 42 border rush, the Department of Homeland Security has enlisted Federal Emergency Management Administration (FEMA) officials to help prepare for as many as 18,000 migrants per day. That volume would be nearly three times the current pace of arrivals.

Just six months into fiscal year 2022, which began in October, border agents will log at least 1 million encounters with illegal aliens at the U.S.-Mexico border. Number doesn’t include “got aways”
______________________________

Strategic Activity / Deployments -

200 U.S. Marines have landed in Lithuania. 10 x USMC F-18 jet fighters also sent to region amid Russia tensions
NOTE - These are not the previously reported EW aircraft.
_________________________________

North/South Korea -

South Korea on Tuesday dismissed North Korea’s claim to have launched a newly developed intercontinental ballistic missile last week, accusing the country of firing a less-powerful existing weapon and fabricating data following an earlier failed launch.

North Korea said it launched a Hwasong-17 missile, its longest-range developmental ICBM, last Thursday in its biggest weapons test in years. Its state media called the launch “a historical event” and released a stylized Hollywood-style video showing leader Kim Jong Un, in sunglasses and leather jacket, supervising the launch.

South Korea’s Defense Ministry said Tuesday it has determined that what North Korea fired wasn’t a Hwasong-17 but a Hwasong-15, another ICBM that it successfully tested in 2017. The Defense Ministry said it told a parliamentary committee that details of Thursday’s launch — such as the missile’s speed, combustion and stage separation — were similar to those of the Hwasong-15, not the Hwasong-17. The ministry report to the committee also suggested that the North Korean video wasn’t shot on the actual launch date, citing an analysis of Kim’s shadow and weather conditions seen in the video.

South Korea said it conducted its first successful launch of a solid-fuel rocket Wednesday in what it called a major step toward acquiring a space surveillance capability amid rising animosities with rival North Korea.
__________________________________

Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia is switching to a defensive posture over most of the territory seized from Ukraine. This redeployment is more likely readjustment of forces to consolidate into more defendable positions and protect their supply lines. Combat ineffective units also being pulled out to Belarus to rearm, reform and reequip.

Russia is becoming more aggressive in strategic strikes into western Ukraine to disrupt food, fuel, maintenance/repair and resupply lines from Poland.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********

US State Department says Russia may ‘single out and detain’ American nationals who are in Russia

Peace talks in Turkey brought no break throughs yesterday.

The Russian Foreign Ministry says that the US and their allies have started a “massive cyber-operation” against Russia and warns of “severe consequences” for those involved
Given the scale of the accusations, the risk of Russia using this as a pretext to carry out a major cyber-attack of its own on Ukraine or Western countries is concerning. Joe Biden warned of a Russian cyberattack on the US recently as well.
OBSERVATION - This may be the laying of the groundwork for a long warned about Russian cyber attacks on the west. See Logistics below

RUMINT -
There are rumors of persistent tension between Putin and the MOD (Ministry of Defense), stemming from Putin’s mistrust in MOD leadership.

Logistics -
- A cyber attack has destroyed data of Rosaviatsia, RussianFederal Air Transport Agency. 65 TB of files, aircraft registration data & mail were deleted from servers. There is no backup - Russian Ministry of Finance has not allocated funds for it. @AnonOpsSE claims responsibility

Russian Personnel Issues -
- The whole command of the Russian 331st Guards Airborne Regiment is KIA in Poland. The commander, Colonel Sukharev was killed March 18. Now the chief of staff Lt Colonel Igor Sukharev with several staff officers is confirmed killed. This unit was responsible of Ilovaisk massacre in 2014.
- The Ukrainian Armed Forces announced on Tuesday that Colonel Denis Kurilo, the commander of the Russian 200th separate motorized rifle brigade, was killed outside Kharkiv.
OBSERVATION - Continued heavy losses in senior leadership will further hamstring Russian combat efforts. Senior leadership cannot be easily replaced.

Economic Impacts -
- The ruble is staging a comeback that could soon see it making up all of the losses it suffered in the weeks after Russia invaded of Ukraine, although it has some way to go yet. The currency has strengthened in 13 of the past 14 trading sessions in Moscow, paring most of the 33% decline.

____________________________________

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru April 5th cooling into the 40’s with rain. Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .

RUMINT -
Supposedly Russian defectors are depicted are now fighting for Ukraine and receiving training on NATO systems such as the NLAW.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

UN refugee agency says more than 4 million refugees have now fled Ukraine since Russia launched its invasion of the country last month.

No positive progress from peace talks being conducted in Turkey. Ukraine President Zelenskyy says his military isn’t prepared to take a step back or slacken its defenses, in spite of word that Russia plans to ease up in its assault on capital city Kyiv. “We can say the signals we are receiving from the talks are positive but they do not drown out the explosions of Russian shells,” he said, adding that Ukraine could only trust a concrete result from peace talks.

Russia’s promise to scale down military operations around Kyiv and northern Ukraine does not represent a ceasefire and talks on a formal agreement with Kyiv have a long way to go, Moscow’s lead negotiator in peace talks said on Tuesday..

Much of Ukraine felt the heaviest artillery and bombing in a while. Strong explosions in Kyiv, Kharkiv and Khmelnytskyi (Western Ukraine Air Base in Starokostyantyniv reportedly hit with Kalibr cruise missiles)

Intelligence suggests that in part the artillery is serving to cover Russian troop movements. Analysts also indicate the the Russian are not using their declared pseudo-ceasefire to actually withdraw but to reposition forces into more defensible positions. Some of the hardest hit units in the Kyiv attacks are reported to have ben pulled back to Belarus for rest, refit and reassignment. Surviving equipment pulled out have been reported to have been loaded on trains.
It is highly likely that Russia will seek to divert combat power from the north to their offensive in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in the east.

Ukraine reached across and hit targets in Russia proper overnight, striking an ammunition depot near Belgorod. Explosions caused by the attack totaled the depot. Russian media acknowledged Tuesday that two border villages had to be evacuated because of shelling from Ukraine. The shelling forced evacuations of Zhuravlyovka and nearby Niekhoteyevka to the Russian town of Belgorod, displacing about 180 people.
However, Russian Ministry of Emergencies deny rumors about evacuation of civil population of Belgorod region. Authorities in Kursk region of Russia in attempt to calm population deny explosions, airstrikes and presence of saboteur groups in the region.

Increased Russian use of artillery /rocket deployed anti personnel mines is being noted to deter Ukrainian assaults on Russian forces. Many of these are new models, having a seismic and proximity trigger as well as a delayed self demolition feature.

Kyiv front -
Situation has become VERY fluid.
Heavy MLRS and artillery shelling in the Kyiv Oblast overnight.
Some Russian troops are moving towards Belarus. Large numbers of BMDs with Russian and VDV flags were spotted on their way from the Ukrainian border to Belarus’ Rechitsa and Gomel where they were loaded onto railway platforms. Clashes in Irpin district: Irpin, Bucha, Hostomiel, Vorzel, Kyiv-Zhytomyr highway have continued.

Russian forces have kicked up radioactive dust and disturbed a highly toxic zone around the area of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster site known as the “Red Forest” since capturing the defunct power plant early on in its invasion of Ukraine, workers at the site said.
Reuters spoke with workers who said Russian soldiers in a convoy did not use anti-radiation gear and inhaled toxic dust that will most likely cause internal radiation in their bodies. In the weeks after Russia took the site on Feb. 24, soldiers were still not wearing any protective gear, they said.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Russian forces have reportedly pulled back across the Snov river east of Chernihiv in an effort to consolidate their positions. City was hit with additional heavy artillery/bombing overnight. The governor of Ukraine’s Chernihiv region says there is no let-up in attacks by Russia, despite its pledge to reduce military activity there.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Fierce fighting in the effort to cut off the Dombas region. Russian forces have made very little progress against Ukrainian defensive operations.

Ukrainian forces, including the Georgian National Legion, liberated a town called Rudnyts’ke, about 60 km east of Kyiv, pushing the line about 15 km farther to the east.

The defeat of the 4th GTA at Trostyanets this week cost the Russian army most of its most modern T-80 tanks.

French presidency says no Mariupol humanitarian mission possible “at this stage”.
70 people from Mariupol maternity hospital no. 2, including medical personnel and patients, have been forcibly deported to Russia, local authorities said. More than 20k Mariupol residents were forcibly deported earlier to filtration camps in Russia, their Ukrainian IDs seized.
Putin says artillery/bombing will stop upon the surrender of the city.

Crimea Front -
Russian offensives towards Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia are stopped and unable to support cutting off Dombas region.

Ukrainian forces continue to press on to Kherson . Russian combat engineers have been observed rigging the Antonov Bridge north of Kherson with explosives.

No amphibious operations against Odessa region appear to be possible in the near and long term.

Western Ukraine -
Air Base in Starokostyantyniv reportedly hit with Kalibr cruise missiles overnight. Ukraine claims to have shot several down.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -
UK MoD update- Highly likely Russia will look to refocus combat power to their offensive in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions.

“Russian units suffering heavy losses have been forced to return to Belarus and Russia to reorganize and resupply.” Such activity is placing further pressure on Russia’s already strained logistics and demonstrates the difficulties Russia is having reorganizing its units in forward areas within Ukraine.

The Institute for the Study of War says Russian forces have given up on seizing Kyiv but that they continue to fight to hold their current position near the city. Russia is also directing some reserves in an effort to gain ground that will link Kharkiv with its front line in Luhansk. And it says Mariupol is likely to fall within days.

I concur with the UK assessments above and want to include the additional notes that Russian will continue to increase attacks on POL, and military facilities / airports in Western Ukraine with continued heavy artillery/bombing of cities in eastern Ukraine.

The mechanics of redeploying forces to support the attack in Dombas will not be an easy task. The Russians can’t simply “reposition” their forces around Kyiv & throw them into the Eastern front. That would takes weeks to logistically move them, refit, rearm, fix broken vehicles, replace wounded soldiers. It will also burden the already chaotic logistical system. The Russian scale down military operations around Kyiv and northern Ukraine may be an attempt to mitigate that logistical impact.

Another factor is the mental state and morale of those redeploying troops. Persistent repots of desertions and self wounding point to a mentally defeated force. Replacements are assessed to be just as poorly trained and prepared as the initial forces.

Replacement equipment is of questionable quality, with reports of key systems having been removed some time when it was in storage. Maintenance issues have been one cause of high vehicle losses so far.

Longer term outlook suggests that Russia will use remaining forces in the north to ‘hold’ Ukrainian forces in place and prevent their redeployment to the south. Consolidated efforts to capture Dombas will be Russia’s primary objective. This readjustment may solve much of the resource competition seen over the past month. Concentration of effort may result in more success. If Russia can “liberate’ the Dombas region,and break out of what would be a pyrrhic victory.

To prevent confusion, the Dombas region consist of two Ukrainian provinces (Oblast) - Donstsk and Luhansk Oblass. The following link show the pre war situation and control by separatists.

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experience/cps/624/cpsprodpb/vivo/live/images/2022/3/30/f82a1df5-e28f-40e2-a1ce-879d94bed54d.png

If Russia can accomplish the “liberation” of the region, along with the securing of a ‘land bridge to Crimea, they could establish some conditions to end the war.

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Europe / NATO General -

The Finnish President reportedly spoke with the NATO Secretary General on Monday in regards to the “principles and procedures involved” in NATOs acceptance of new members. This comes after the former Finnish PM said he believed the country would soon apply for NATO membership.
Denmark says it would very strongly support Finland’s NATO accession

Norway’s defence ministry says it has donated an additional 2,000 m72 anti-tank weapons to Ukraine - Reuters

Europe bracing for potential cuts in gas and oil imports from Russian after refusing to pay in rubles.

Denmark says it will send a battalion of 800 troops to the Baltic States if NATO requests it.

Belgium, Ireland, the Netherlands & the Czech Republic have today expelled a total of 43 Russian diplomats over alleged spying activities, taking to more than 100 the number of Russian officials to be kicked out of European nations this month

GENERAL OBSERVATIONS - Russia’s efforts to split NATO and cause the eastern European nations to be abandoned has epically failed. The nations have largely done just the opposite. Plus Finland and Sweden’s push not to join NATO has expanded its presence on its border.

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Israel -

Following the recent terror attacks in Be’er Sheva and Hadera, and advance of the Muslim holidays, which will coincide with the Jewish Passover and the Christian Easter, Israel Police was anticipating a surge of violent clashes. The police said that they are expecting up to 35 days of possible violence, and incidents 3 times the magnitude of those that occurred last year, with dozens of hot spots throughout the country and possible missile fire from Gaza.

A shooting in Bnei Brak, central Israel, has left 5 dead. Reportedly, three terrorists were involved in the shooting. 1 was killed, 1 was arrested, and another is possibly at large

Recent series of attacks in Israel:
- 22 March: Knife and vehicle attack in Beersheba, 4 killed. Claimed by ISIS.
- 27 March: Shooting in Hadera, 2 police officers killed, 6 injured. Claimed by ISIS.
- 29 March: Shooting spree in Bnei Brak, , at least 5 killed. Some saying Al-Aqsa Martyr’s Brigade have claimed responsibility for this attack, currently there is no claim across any of their official media.
- 29 March: Initial reports of a stabbing attempt in Jerusalem’s Mahne Yehuda market

OBSERVATION - More violence of this manner, don’t anticipate any significant supporting rocket attacks from Gaza.
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Saudi Arabia -

Arab Coalition announces stopping military operations in Yemen to create the appropriate conditions for the success of the #GCC-sponsored peace talks and to create a positive environment during Ramadan. Unilateral ceasefire - Houthis have not agreed to it.
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Syria -

Closing the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits to Russian warships poses a logistical problem for Russia in Syria. Normally, supplies would be loaded in Black Sea ports and shipped to Syria. Now Russia has to depend more on airlift - competing with the Ukraine war for this resource.
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Armenia/Azerbaijan -

Russia’s Defense Ministry on Saturday accused Azerbaijani troops of entering a village under the jurisdiction of Russian peacekeepers in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, setting up an surveillance post, and conducting drone strikes against local Armenian forces.
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Globalism / Great Reset -

Senator John Boozman (R-AR) criticized the Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) budget proposal, saying that it prioritizes climate change over food production. Boozman pointed out that “climate” appeared over 100 times in the budget plan, adding that the Biden administration plans to raise taxes on ranchers and farmers to fund climate projects.
OBSERVATION- The agenda is more important than eating.

World Government Summit in Dubai began this week. The Summit is a global, neutral, non-profit organization dedicated to shaping the future of governments. The Summit, in its various activities, explores the agenda of the next generation of governments, focusing on harnessing innovation and technology to solve universal challenges facing humanity. The Summit will bring thought leaders, global experts and decision makers from around the globe to discuss how best to implement the New World Order after the Great Reset.
This year’s theme - ‘Shaping Future Governments’. The very first order of business on the agenda was preparing for the New World Order.
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Wuhan virus -

UK gov’t reverses ‘no jab, no job’ policy, doesn’t say if unvaxxed workers will be rehired. The ‘no jab, no job’ mandate for home care workers was revoked last week, but it remains unclear if those ousted from their positions will get their jobs back.

Collusion between the CDC and teacher’s unions has been uncovered where the unions essentially directed changes to CDC policy regarding shutdown of schools which resulted in thousands of schools across the country remaining closed throughout the 2020-2021 school year.
OBSERVATION - Remember, it’s not about the disease, its all about power.
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Economy -

Biden is preparing to order the release of up to 1 million barrels of oil per day from the nation’s strategic petroleum reserve, according to two people familiar with the decision, in a bid to control energy prices that have spiked as the U.S. and allies have imposed steep sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. The duration of the release hasn’t been finalized but could last for several months.
OBSERVATION - If the duration lasts for 6 months that would be about 180 million barrels. 1he SPR will be down below 400 million barrels. That’s nearly half of the SPR’s maximum capacity of 727 million barrels. And we’re already at the lowest level seen since 2003. That would stip a considerable buffer of oil supplies away in the event of a REAL emergency. This is a waste just to try to saved the democrat’s bacon in November.
BTW - When oil prices were low, Trump directed purchases to place oil in the reserve, to replace losses from previous administrations who dipped into to it for political reasons.
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Invasion of Illegals -

Border chief Alejandro Mayorkas and his progressive deputies are warning Americans to expect a huge inflow of economic migrants if the Title 42 border barrier is dropped.
“Homeland security officials on Tuesday described contingency plans for managing as many as 18,000 encounters a day at the border, regardless of the cause,” reported the New York Times. That inflow would add up to more than 500,000 people a month — or more migrants than American births in a month.

OBSERVATION - This will become a disaster of biblical proportions. Border states may take extreme measures to stop the flow. AZ has indicated that they may even send armed NG to the border. TX likely the same (beyond what they are doing). Half million a month - that will potentially add millions in just a few months - remember this doesn’t include the ‘get aways’.
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POLITICAL FRONT -

Florida Republican lawmakers have met to discuss the repeal of Disney World’s self-governing arrangement following the company’s criticism of the state’s new Parental Rights in Education law.
Disney World was given control over operations such as law enforcement and fire protection in an arrangement that was created to attract the theme park to the state in 1967.
“Yesterday was the 2nd meeting in a week w/fellow legislators to discuss a repeal of the 1967 Reedy Creek Improvement Act, which allows Disney to act as its own government,” State Rep. Spencer Roach, R, tweeted Wednesday morning. “If Disney wants to embrace woke ideology, it seems fitting that they should be regulated by Orange County.”
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -

A rotational US Marine force of approximately 2,200 soldiers will be based in the Northern Territory through September. 1,000 Marines have already arrived in Darwin, where they will train with the Australian Defense Force (ADF) to ensure preparedness for potential conflict/crises in the region.

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North/South Korea -

Joint South Korean and US military drills set to kick off next month could for the first time in years include more weaponry and troops, and more aggressive messaging as tensions with North Korea rise.
Neither the South Korean or US militaries have confirmed what this year’s annual drills may entail, but a recent series of unusual displays of military might in and around the Korean peninsula suggest a more muscular show could be in the works, analysts said.

OBSERVATION - More aggressive and expanded military exercises is one of the points the new SK govt as announced it was planning to do - a reversal from less pronounced exercises to placate NK threats.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia is switching to a defensive posture over most of the territory seized from Ukraine as an Economy of Force effort. This redeployment is more likely readjustment of forces to consolidate into more defendable positions and protect their supply lines. Combat ineffective units also being pulled out to Belarus to rearm, reform and reequip.

Russia is becoming more aggressive in strategic strikes into western Ukraine to disrupt food, fuel, maintenance/repair and resupply lines from Poland.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********
The US intel community concludes that Putin was unaware that the military had been using and losing conscripts in Ukraine. Reportedly, there are tensions between Putin and his Minister of Defense Shoigu. Putin’s senior advisers “too afraid to tell him the truth” about Ukraine, US official confirms-based on newly declassified US intelligence “Putin is being misinformed by his advisors about how badly the Russia|n military is performing & how the Russian economy is being crippled”

(Reuters) - Russian hackers have recently attempted to penetrate the networks of NATO and the militaries of some eastern European countries, Google’s Threat Analysis Group said in a report published on Wednesday.
Google Tracking cyber activity in Eastern Europe as TAG has observed COLDRIVER campaigns targeting the military of multiple Eastern European countries, as well as a NATO Centre of Excellence via Russia linked group

RUMINT -
Big RUMINT. *Major* plot twist to the story about Russian aircraft violating Swedish airspace a few weeks back.
There are unconfirmed reports that of the 4 Russian Aircraft that breached Swedish airspace over the Baltic Sea on March 2nd, 2 were carrying multiple Tactical Nuclear Weapons while on Patrol, the Swedish Public is reportedly furious about the Claims.
OBSERVATION - Russia has been trying to intimidate the Swedes during the current Ukraine crisis to say out of the support for Ukraine as well as stay away from NATO. But being locked and loaded with tactical nukes on planes that ‘accidentally’ entered Swedish airspace sounds a bit far fetched. The ‘accident ‘ was no accident - the entry was deliberate. But carrying nukes ? ? ? ?

Logistics -
- Something many don’t realize about Russian logistics. The Russian army operates with fewer support soldiers than other militaries. About 150 of the 700 to 900 troops in a BTG could be considered support, and because this formation would be an arm of a larger force in the area, they expect help from other logistics units. The standard BTG only carries enough fuel for two days of combat.
- A huge column of Russian tanks with the “V” sign was seen in Homiel (aka Gomel), moving towards the Russian border. It is possible that the equipment is being transferred from the Kyiv direction through Belarus to Donbas.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Pentagon says Russia has repositioned less than 20 percent of troops it had around Kyiv, some going to Belarus but non seen going to their home garrisons.
- Follow up from yesterday’s note on radioactive contamination of Russian soldiers (See yesterday’s Ukraine - Kyiv front). 7 busses with Russian soldiers suffering from Acute Radiation Syndrome have arrived to a hospital in Belarus from the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone in Ukraine. They allegedly dug trenches in the highly radioactive Red Forest - UNIAN News Agency.
OBSERVATION - This probably only the tip of the iceberg considering the fight that occurred in the area.
- RUMINT Level information, about 300 soldiers (mostly ethnic Ossetians) from the Russian military base have reportedly returned to South Ossetia of their own free will, because they thought they had been left for dead during a special operation in Ukraine. The former president of South Ossetia called not to draw hasty conclusions and not to accuse the guys of desertion, but to carefully investigate the situation when soldiers are sent to combat operations without full outfit and stocks of weapons, warm clothing and protective equipment. Returned soldiers allegedly hitchhiked home.
OBSERVATION - Outlandish? Possibly, however it does fit the pretty well established narrative of poor morale, poor equipment and poor preparation of Russian military and in particular, non-ethnic Russian units.

Economic Impacts -
- Russia has through linking the ruble to gold and deals with India and China is poised to threaten the Petro Dollar as the basis of exchange on the global market. At least is has broken the ice to permit oil purchases in other currencies.
- Russia is allowing Germany to pay for oil/gas in Euros rather than Rubles.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru April 5th cooling into the 40’s with rain. Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Ukrainian counter offensives seem to be successful so far within the last three days in both the NE and the South within Ukraine. Russian forces can be seen losing controlled areas in both locations. Some details are listed below.

Over the last few days Russia shelled and destroyed oil depots in Lviv, Lutsk, Khmelnytsk region and now Dnipropetrovsk region

Russia continues to strike residential areas with artillery and bomb/missiles.

Kyiv front -
Situation has become VERY fluid.
Russian and Ukrainian forces do not appear to have conducted significant operations northwest of Kyiv in the last 24 hours.

U.S Defense and Intelligence Officials have announced that they have seen indication today that Russian Forces Guarding the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine has begun to withdraw across the Belarusian Border, this seems to be part of the Russian redeployment to the east. See note above under Russia - Russian Personnel Issues regarding contaminated Russian soldiers.

Kyiv authorities reported on March 30 that Ukrainian forces fully control Makariv and parts of Borodyanka. Fighting has been ongoing in Irpin and Hostomel over the past 24 hours, but Ukrainian forces did not secure additional territory.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Russian forces did not conduct any major operations along the Chernihiv and Sumy axis in the past 24 hours. Russian shelling increased following the Russian claim on March 29 that Russian forces would reduce operations against Chernihiv.

Elements of the 20th Combined Arms Army and 1st Guards Tank Army are believed to be redeploying to support Russian operations on Izyum, but are unlikely to take the city in the near future.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Mariupol is close to falling to Russian forces who’ve managed to essentially cut the pocket in half. The Mariupol city council said thousands of residents — including more than 70 staff members and patients at a maternity hospital — are being taken to Russia against their will, a war crime under the Geneva Conventions. Social media users depicted ongoing Russian use of thermobaric munitions in Mariupol and widespread damage to the city

The following UPDATED link provides a visual of the situation.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FO9xF3gXIAAAgud?format=jpg&name=small

Also below is a link to a figure produced by the BBC (from UK MoD sources) depicting how the fight for Mariupol developed over the past few weeks.
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experience/cps/624/cpsprodpb/vivo/live/images/2022/3/31/1505d92e-6e32-475a-8840-50cf54862b29.png

Russia has declared a one-day ceasefire in the heavily-bombed port city, but there is scepticism if it will hold - up to 170,000 people remain trapped. Ukraine’s government is sending dozens of buses to Mariupol, in a fresh effort to evacuate people and deliver humanitarian aid. The International Committee of the Red Cross says it is ready to lead the operation on Friday if all parties agree to exact terms

Efforts to fight northward to join advances out of Khariv and Izium areas remain stalled. Ukrainian forces continued to repel Russian assaults throughout Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts in the last 24 hours. Ukrainian counterattack in Zaporizhia Oblast continues, villages of Zatyshshya, Vesele, Zelenyi Hai & Chervone were all reported as recaptured by Ukrainian paratroopers & Territorial Defense.

Crimea Front -
Russian offensives towards Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia are stopped and unable to support cutting off Dombas region.
Ukrainian army has pushed back the Russian forces in the Kryvyi Rih salient, regaining controlled Zahradivka, Kochubeivka and Orlove in Kherson region

No amphibious operations against Odessa region appear to be possible in the near and long term.

Western Ukraine -
No significant missile strikes overnight.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -
Russia is essentially developing an Economy of Force operation in the north, northeast and south (apart from Dombas separatist regions). Russia is setting its forces in place to continue to pose a threat, abet minor, to Ukrainian territory in an effort to hold Ukrainian forces in place and limit reinforcement of troops in southeast Ukraine.

Mariupol continues to be a massive disaster for civilians trapped by fighting. The loss of life will likely be far higher than estimates. Russia’s humanitarian ‘cease fire’ is viewed with skepticism given how they’ve violated other humanitarian corridors already. The city will likely fall completely within a week. Fighting for the city has cost Russia a lot in men and material and securing it will tie down forces they may want for the main fight in SE Ukraine.

Evidence of only a few Russian units being pulled back into either Belarus or Russia. Those pulled back are likely those mauled by fighting, needing refit and reorganization. US only estimates about 20% have been relocated/redeployed. Shifting substantial forces to the southeast area will require a lot of logistical effort.

Unconfirmed reports that replacement forces are even more poorly trained and equipped than the original assault forces continue to bubble up. Desertions and refusals to fight popping up on numerous independent web sources. Also, armored and other vehicles Russian has sent to the region also reported to be in very poor condition, barely combat capable.

Trust issues between Putin and his generals is not helping the war effort.

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Poland -

Poland, which was the 2nd largest importer of Russian coal in the EU behind Germany, said it cannot wait any longer for an EU-level decision, acknowledging that the ban “may be legally questionable”. According to government spokesperson Piotr Müller, the decision was taken for national security reasons.

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Europe / NATO General -

NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg: “According to our intelligence, Russian units are not withdrawing, but repositioning. Russia is trying to regroup, resupply & reinforce its offensive in the Donbas region. At the same time, Russia maintains pressure on Kyiv and other cities”

Big shift in Sweden’s Nato debate - prime minister is no longer ruling out applying for membership

Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere says he’s asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to urgently pull his troops out of Ukraine and allow humanitarian access. The two men had a hour-long conversation earlier, according to a Norwegian statement cited by the Reuters news agency.

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Israel -

Unrest growing as another attack on Israeli civilians was carried out yesterrday. Initial reports of a stabbing near the West Bank settlement of Neve Daniel in the Gush Etzion area. The assailant has been subdued, and one person is hurt, medics say. In response, Gantz orders deployment of 1,000 soldiers to reinforce police after terror attacks. Gantz vows to ‘flood the streets’ with thousands of reservists if needed.

IDF forces entered the Jenin refugee camp in a rare daylight operation to capture leaders organizing the attacks. Heavy gunfire was reported. The raid came after a man from a nearby village killed five people in Israel. Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades released a statement claiming their fighters are engaged in a firefight with IDF forces in Jenin

The Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ ) announced the general readiness and mobilization of their military brigade Saraya Al-Quds in all formations/areas. Secretary-General of the Islamic Jihad Movement, Commander Ziad Al-Nakhala: “In light of the storming of Jenin camp by the Zionist enemy army, we announce the general alertness of the Al-Quds Brigades in all their locations”. Abu Hamza, spokesman of the Al-Quds Brigades: “Based on the decision of the Secretary-General, the Mujahid leader Ziyad Al-Nakhala; We announce the full readiness of our fighters in all military formations.”

Hamas issued a statement in support of these West Bank terrorist groups, calling for the upcoming month of Ramadan, to be a month of jihad, and martyrdom.

IDF announces operation “Breakwater” aimed at curbing the string of terror attacks in Israel and the West Bank. Overnight, 31 suspects were arrested, the military says.

OBSERVATION - Palestinian violence is escalating and Israel is escalating with it. Not sure if this could trigger another intifada or not. Ramadan overlaps with Passover this year and that could be one component. The other may well be a power play against the PA which has called for calm. Remember, elections are on the horizon for the West Bank and Hamas-favored elements are posing a significant challenge to the current West Bank leadership. Nothing like a good old intifada to stir up support.
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