Holy heck Hanna, things have gotten out right crazy yesterday afternoon and over night. This will be a long post, please bear with me.
I totally expect this tempo to continue for some time.
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Wuhan virus -
In late March 2020, New Zealand recorded 5 cases of COVID-19 infection and immediately shut down everything, locked down borders and citizens, and instituted the most severe restrictions on formerly free citizens in global history. In late March 2022, New Zealand recorded 20,000 cases of COVID-19 infection (yesterday), and announces they are dropping almost all COVID restrictions, removing vaccination mandates and eliminating COVID passports.
The White House COVID Task Force is warning there won’t be enough vaccines to give people a fourth vaccine dose if Congress does not provide the “appropriate level of funding.”
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Economy -
House Democrats have introduced a bill that would provide monthly stimulus checks to Americans because of the high price of gas.
The bill would give Americans $100 a month and $100 per dependent for the rest of the year in any month where the national average is above $4 a gallon. It would be paid for by taxing the excess profits of large oil and gas companies.
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Biden / Harris watch -
biden has received no ‘bounce’ from his handling of the Ukraine crisis, according to recent polls.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -
A senior U.S. defense official said that Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is still considering the possibility of deploying additional American troops to NATO’s eastern flank in Europe
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China -
An “undisclosed lender” (a Chinese state owned bank?) has jumped the line on claims against Evergrande’s remaining piles of cash, seizing some $2 billion in deposits, including deposits pledged as security to international investors.
Unsurprisingly, a number of international investors are not pleased and preparing to sue.
The surprise revelation is set to ignite a legal battle between major international investors and the Chinese developer, which has more than $300bn in liabilities. Evergrande’s collapse, which represents the biggest debt restructuring in China’s history, comes as a slowdown in the real estate sector poses increasing financial and political risks to President Xi Jinping’s government.
Playing political favorites in how Evergrande’s financial carcass is carved up might play well in China, but it won’t make Chinese investment attractive in the future.
This is happening despite Beijing’s recent efforts prop up the real estate sector.
The Chinese real estate bubble is deflating and Beijing is proving unable to stop it.
OBSERVATION - The economic woes the Evergrande scandal and other property firms still pose a serious threat to China’s economy and Xi’s tenure as leader.
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North Korea -
North Korea tested an intercontinental ballistic missile - the new Hwasong-17, according to Yonhap. T he ICBM was fired on a lofted trajectory, according to the South Korean military and it landed 170km west of Aomori, inside of Japan’s exclusive economic zone, according to the Japanese Coast Guard.
The missile reached maximum altitude of at least 6,000km, or 3728 miles. The Japanese Vice Defense Minister says it flew higher than the 2017 Hwasong-15 test. For reference the ISS orbit is max 410km. Flight time was roughly an hour.
OBSERVATION - This ICBM was first revealed several months ago at a military parade. It is suspect that at least one of the recent shorter range tests involved a limited test of the Hwasong-17. This represents a missile with multiple warheads that can strike any point in North America north of Mexico City. Test probably also evaluated the re-entry components to protect the potential warheads. This new system expands NK’s nuclear projection capability.
RUMINT is that NK may follow up with a potential test of a prototype warhead - a major step in their nuclear program. Construction has been notes at the nuclear test site.
South Korea to the test, saying it stands ‘ready and capable’ of carrying out a precision missile strike on North Korea’s missile launch location and control system ‘if needed’
In response to the NK ICBM test, South Korea says it’s conducted tests of major missiles from the ground, sea, and air.
One Hyunmoo-II surface to surface missile was fired, one MGM-140 surface to surface missile was fired, a Haesong-II ship to ground missile, and two JDAM air to ground missiles, says the JCS.
OBSERVATION - IIRC this is the first time SK has responded in this manner to a NK missile test. This could mark a period of escalation of the arms race on the peninsula and potential conflict.
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Japan -
See NK above
OBSERVATION - If NK follows the ICBM test up with a nuclear test, Japan may finally decide to go nuclear as well.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin’s desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Could be seeing the start of Russia trying to switch the momentum via a series of attacks.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 100% of the combat force that Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, It is becoming more and more apparent Russia has been scrambling to get more combat forces into theater and support those already committed.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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The U.S. State Department said Russia has listed a number of its diplomats in Moscow as “persona non grata” and is in the process of having them expelled from the embassy.
The Russian foreign ministry on Monday said it was close to severing diplomatic relations with the U.S. - an unprecedented move - after complaining to U.S. Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan about President Biden’s characterization of Russian President Vladimir Putin as a “war criminal.”
Secretary of Defense Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Milley have attempted reaching out to top Russian military leaders but have so far been ignored, according to reporting from the Washington Post.
NOTE - this is the special ‘hot line’ meant to prevent missteps and misunderstandings between the two counties. Silence is not good.
Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the conflict in Ukraine by telephone with Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett on Wednesday, the Kremlin said in a statement.
The existence of Russia itself is at stake today - Head of Russian delegation at talks with Ukraine and former minister of culture Medinsky
****NOTE*****
Yesterday, Russia said that they would utilize nukes in the face of an ‘existential threat’.
Russia’s Ministry of Defense Head Sergei Shoigu reportedly missing, hasn’t made public appearances in 12 days. When asked about it, a source in the defense minister’s entourage told investigative outlet Agentstvo that he is unwell and has “heart problems.”” Shoigu is seen as one of Putin’s closest and most loyal allies.
OBSERVATION - This is HUGE, so much of the military effort is directed by Moscow the ‘loss’ of the senior general has likely caused the whole military planning and effort chain to seize up. It will further constipate Russian war efforts and cause more uncorrdianted
Another (formerly ) close ally of Putin - Putin advisor A. Chubais has quit and has left Russia (Bloomberg)
Vladimir Putin’s Russian Army has lost another commander - the 15th of Putin’s top military leaders to be killed as the country’s invasion of Ukraine heads into its second month.
Colonel Alexei Sharov became the latest high-ranking Russian official to die in what has become the country’s biggest loss of military higher-ups since World War II. His death was announced by Ukrainian armed forces on social media Tuesday.
The commander of the 810th Guards Separate Order of Zhukov Brigade in the Russian Marines, Sharov was reportedly killed in Mariupol.
NOTICE - There have been a lot of senior Russian officers killed in the Mariupol battle, to include recently the Russian Naval deputy commander of the Black Sea Fleet.
RUMINT -
According to Ukraine Intel, Russian Nat’l Guard prepares to block Kerch bridge, ferry & air connections. Since 24 Feb, panic has rising in Crimea, with Russian military, occupation administrations trying to leave.
Logistics - ‘
Based on US evaluation Russia still has “vast majority of their assembled available inventory of surface-to-air missiles&cruise missiles available to them...the thing that they are running the lowest on are air-launched cruise missiles...just over 50% of what they had assembled left”
Note. What this means is that Russia can continue to attack civilian targets with these munitions at the same pace for almost another month.
Russia still trying to reinforce the war effort -
NATO estimates up to 15,000 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine. That means in just one month, Moscow has potentially matched its number killed in decade-long Soviet war in Afghanistan in the 1980s
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 29th show a warming trend into the 50’s . Rain is forecast in the upcoming week. Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
The fluidity of the conflict has been made evident over the past 24 hours. It appears the stalemate of the past couple weeks is breaking, and Ukraine forces have reportedly made advances on several key fronts, as detailed below. Note though, many of the actions are still only partially confirmed, there is evidence of a local swing in operations for Ukraine.
Kyiv front -
Situation has become VERY fluid.
Over the past couple days there has been much discussion and analysis of Ukraine claims of being in the process of and actually cutting off Russian forces in the salient northwest of Kyiv. With new data coming in analysts see confirmation ion those claims. According to US defense officials, there is a realistic possibility that Ukrainian forces are now able to encircle Russian units in Bucha and Irpin.”
Ukraine forces are confirmed to be in Bucha, Irpin and Hostomel. Unconfirmed reports that Ukraine has almost taken back all of Irpin. Additionally Ukraine forces control Markariv and now Teterivske. Ukraine control of Teterivske is really bad news for the Russian forces west and north west of Kyiv. It poses a very serious threat to Russian supply lines. A link to a map of the situation is below.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOihPsvWYAAmAdR?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
OBSERVATION - This appears to be largely due to the Ukraine flank attack i noted back on post 197 (Mar 18th).
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4026005/posts?page=197#197
This is a devastating blow for any Russian offensive against Kyiv from this front. Russian forces don’t have the manpower or equipment to to reach Kyiv, let alone set siege or capture it.
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Russian forces continue to face set backs in this front, failing to both advance on Kyiv as well as to make any progress against Chernihiv . Russians are still trying to encircle Chernihiv and are eight to 10 kilometers away from the city centre. They are “stalled” and have ceded some ground in some places there. Chernihiv continues to face devistataing bombing and artillery fire on residential areas.
See North Eastern Front for more bad news for Russia
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Continued Russian efforts to isolate Sumy and Khariv, but sustaining heavy casualties in doing so.
Russian attack toward Brovary (and towards Kyiv) apparently has been crushed and Russian forces have been locally routed. Per US defense official, the Ukrainians have pushed the Russians back to about 55 kilometers east/northeast of Kyiv. This is a push back of 15-20 Km from previous positions. This essentially eliminates the Konotop and Sumy ‘finger’ assaults that have been stuck for a couple weeks now (See map link below - though it hasn’t been updated for this event).
OBSERVATION - This is extremely bad news for Russia for both this front as well as the Northern Front (Chernihv region ). Demonstrates that Russian forces are increasingly depleted and unable to hold captured ground for starters. Makes any effort to move on Kyiv from these fronts even more problematical if not impossible.
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Russian offensive pushing southward toward the Dombass region is beginning to stall out. See Eastern front for more details.
6 killed, 15 wounded as result of Russian army shelling on humanitarian aid delivery point at Nova Poshta post office on Akademika Pavlova Avenue in Kharkiv
Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Things continue desperate in Mariupol with intense street fighting ongoing. Some are likening it to Stalingrad.
Russia is slowly decreasing the area under Ukraine control, but facing difficult street by street, house to house fighting. Russia continued indiscriminate bombing/shelling of civilian areas. Russia has increased the number of naval vessels joining in the bombardment of the city.
OBSERVATION - Russian actions are going well beyond war crimes levels in Mariupol. Sadly those directing the bombing on civilians and forced displacement will never come to trial. Mariupol will not be able to hold out much longer and the presence of Chechen thugs will make life for the survivors a literal hell.
US intelligence officials are seeing indications that the Russians are starting to prioritize that part of of eastern Ukraine ,” referring to the Donbass area. I’ve noted efforts of attacks southward out of this front towards Izium (North Eastern Front from Khariv area) as well as north and westward attacks coming out of this front. After making some initial gains, these assaults have stalled out, though Russian forces continue to try to maintain the offensive initiative.
Russian naval forces have had a significant set back overnight. Russian Pr. 1171 (Alligator) LST “Orsk” unloading ammunition at the docks at the captured Ukrainan port of Berdyansk exploded overnight. Two Ropucha Class landing ships that were docked next to the Orsk were seen sailing away from fire with at least one (and possibly both) of the vessels with a fire on its deck. Damage to the dock at Berdyansk is unknown at present, but may have been seriously damaged. This port has been used to resupply the assault on Mariupol.
The cause of the explosion is still unknown. Unconfirmed reports that the ship was hit with a Tochka-U SRBM. Others view the cause as careless handling of munitions during unloading.
The Orsk has been confirmed to have been sunk. Alligator class are some of the oldest landing ships in the Russian navy and its loss reduces the number of amphibious ships in the Black Sea to 8. Damage to the U/I Ropucha class ships may further reduce Russian amphibious capability until they are repaired.
Crimea Front -
Russian offensives towards Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia are apparently stalled. The apparent goal of these assaults are to isolate Ukraine defenders in the Domabss region from support/resupply.
Heavy battles on the border of Kherson and Mykolaiv regions as the Ukraine counter offensive continues.
Bastion-P (P-800 Oniks / SS-N-26 STROBILE) supersonic missiles have been used against ground targets in Odessa. Typically anti ship missiles are being launched from land sites in Crimea.
Just released videos of the Turkish made TB-2 show how versatile it is. Besides a direct attack mode - most commonly seen in released videos, Ukraine is also using it to direct artillery fire. The attack by the Ukrainian army on Kherson Airport, TB-2 Bayraktar guided the attack at an altitude of 5800 meters and 48 km from the target. Russian military vehicles and positions where the TB2 laser-marked were hit successfully with artillery - multi-barrel rocket launchers.
Due to the loss of one and possible serious damage to two other amphibious assault ships at Berdyansk over night, the potential for an amphibious assault to encircle Odessa has dropped to near zero in the near term.
Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg
OUTLOOK -
Repetitious but factual - Expect more indiscriminate artillery and bombing
Ukrainan counteroffensive is securing Kyiv from Russian assaults from three fronts. It is unlikely that the current Russian forces are capable at this time to mount a counter attack to regain lost ground. I believe that Russia is incapable of being able to cut off Kyiv and siege it, let alone capture it with its present forces. Given the reportedly poor quality of the Russian forces that they are bringing into the theatre, those reinforcements will be incapable of accomplishing the goal of capturing Kyiv.
Russia looks to continue to push in the Dombass region but it doesen’t seem likely to make much more progress than they have.
The Crimea front doesn’t look capable of continuing offensive operations to push into the Dombass region or encircle Odessa. Potential for an amphibious assault is out of the question for now. I expect increased missile/bombing efforts on Odessa and surrounding cities.
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Belarus -
US sees no evidence that Belarus is preparing to enter the war.
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Poland -
Russian ambassador says that Poland has frozen the bank accounts of Russia’s embassy in the country
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Europe / NATO General -
U.S. President Joe Biden and world leaders opened a trio of emergency summits on Thursday with a sober warning from NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg that the alliance must boost its defenses to counter Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and “respond to a new security reality in Europe.”
NATO/U.S. forces in Europe have been placed at heightened readiness per NATO Secretary General.
There are reports that The French Military has quietly Raised its Nuclear Posture and Alert Levels over the last week or so, an Indication of this Occurring is that 3 of the 4 French Triomphant-Class Submarines which can Launch Nuclear Capable Ballistic Missiles have gone to Sea.
OBSERVATION - A very subtle but LOUD warning to Russia that France is not in the mood to play the nuclear escalation game.
Turkish S400’s - See Turkey below.
Four more NATO battle groups are being assembled and deployed on its eastern flank. This Stations a NATO Multinational Battlegroup in Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia and Poland originally with the new 4 going to Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia.
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Iran -
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned #Israel on Wednesday that it would face swift revenge attacks if it continues to target members of the elite force in the Middle East, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported.
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Turkey -
Turkey says the West should first deliver F-35s and Patriot batteries without preconditions before asking Ankara to deploy S-400s to Ukraine: Senior Turkish official Fahrettin Altun to WSJ
OBSERVATION - I don’t see this happening any time soon.
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Armenia/Azerbaijan -
There is evidence of an Azerbaijani incursion in the direction of Parukh village of the Askeran region. The coming hours will be crucial. There is a significant risk of even bigger escalation.
OBSERVATION - Russia is believed to have pulled forces out of Armenia to support the Ukraine war. Now Azerbaijan seems to be taking advantage of the situation.
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p
Long report again, took a lot of time to sort thru information for this weekly temperature check.
Temperature Gauge - Threat Trending Code Color Key
BLACK - An area worth noting, but not immediately impacting on US safety
BLUE - Incidents increasing and needing further monitoring, low threat to the US
YELLOW - This is the moderate concern level. Definitely becoming a threat but in the longer term.
ORANGE - A definite threat in both short term and long term. Some active events occurring
RED - Active and ongoing. Examples of this would be 2020 rioting, etc.
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Globalism / Great Reset - YELLOW trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Ukraine war has allowed GGR to operate towards the ‘reset’ without much news coverage. GGR evaluating global impacts to food supplies and economies for exploitation to the globalist cause. GGR cadre, are heaping food scarcity on top of the supply chain crisis, fuel crisis, and violent crime epidemics they’ve already brought us. Exploitation and creation of crisis - in order to get the people to turn to the global ‘saviors’ as the price of lost liberty and freedom.
BlackRock Inc’s (BLK.N) chief executive, Larry Fink, said on Thursday that the Russia-Ukraine war could end up accelerating digital currencies as a tool to settle international transactions, as the conflict upends the globalization drive of the last three decades.
In a letter to the shareholders of the world’s largest asset manager, Fink said the war will push countries to reassess currency dependencies, and that BlackRock was studying digital currencies and stablecoins due to increased client interest.
“A global digital payment system, thoughtfully designed, can enhance the settlement of international transactions while reducing the risk of money laundering and corruption”, he said.
OBSERVATION - Blackrock is deep in the GGR pocket, in this instance, revealing one aspect of GGR evaluation of controlling global financial transactions via international digital currency.
Can be noted under Economy as well. Experts say American shoppers will begin to see higher grocery bills as the war in Ukraine threatens global food supplies.
President Biden said Thursday that a food shortage is “gonna be real” following the sanctions that were placed on Russia by the U.S. government as a result of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion into Ukraine.
“With regard to food shortage, yes we did talk about food shortages, and it’s gonna be real,” Biden said during a press conference at a NATO summit in Brussels, Belgium, following a meeting with other world leaders.
“The price of the sanctions is not just imposed upon Russia,” he added. “It’s imposed upon an awful lot of countries as well, including European countries and our country as well.”
OBSERVATION - He who controls the food, controls the world. I’ve noted for the past couple years that the global food situation is getting worse, and this maybe the year it unravels. Stock up now.
MORE - It was no secret by 2021, China panic hoarded half of the world’s maize and other grains resulting in increased food inflation.
China’s buying spree of all commodities left many market observers puzzled by Beijing’s stockpiling motives. Now we understand the second-largest economy in the world was forecasting a global catastrophe of widespread famine due to disrupted food supply chains.
MORE FOOD RELATED - World Bank President David Malpass told people not to store food or gasoline in spite of the massive spike in prices since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. “The right thing to do in these current circumstances is not to go out and buy extra flour or extra gasoline, it’s to recognize that the world is a dynamic global economy and will respond. There’ll be enough to go around,” Malpass said.
OBSERVATION - Stockpiling is one means to mitigate a food crisis. To discourage storage is to permit the GGR to manipulate supplies to coerce resistant populations.
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Wuhan virus - YELLOW *last updated 12-10-21*
DISCUSSION - News largely overwhelmed by Ukraine reporting. Some rules are being silently locked in while other mandates are being removed/suspended. The distraction of war is allowing the remnants of mandates to be hidden for later use - as needed.
Continued warnings of a new variant by Fauci et al. amid new calls for more funding by the left for wuhan control measures.
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Economy - RED * Updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - Fed raised rates .25% with increased inflation pressures due in part to housing and gasoline. Fed now looking to the next raises being even higher, as much as double earlier projections.
Average price of gasoline now at $4.24/gallon
Orders at U.S. factories for long-lasting goods fell more than expected in February, snapping a months-long streak of increases and business investment as manufacturers confronted a worsening supply chain crisis. Bookings for all durable goods – products that are intended to last at least three years – fell 2.2%, the first decline in five months, the government reported on Thursday. Economists surveyed by Refinitiv forecast a 0.5% decline.
OBSERVATION - This is pre-Ukraine war, so those impacts haven’t hit the reporting cycle yet. Supply issues are part, but February also saw considerable inflation increases - even before the Ukraine related gasoline increases. People were already reprioritizing their spending to essentials.
Sticking it to US steel plants. The U.S. and U.K. struck a trade accord Tuesday that will remove U.S. tariffs on British steel and aluminum, while the U.K. will lift levies on American whiskey, motorcycles and tobacco.
Biden administration officials said the agreement with the U.K. will allow the U.K to ship “historically-based sustainable volumes” of steel and aluminum products to the U.S. without levies imposed under the former Trump administration.
U.S. oil and gas company output saw its highest activity in at least six years. The Federal Reserve of Dallas surveyed major industries, finding that 15% of large firms plan to increase growth by 30% this year. Respondents predicted U.S. crude could return to pre-invasion levels by end of year. These long-term predictions contrast short-term forecasts with some top oil traders warning prices could pass $200 a barrel.
OBSERVATION - Production is ramping up, but potential relief is still 6 months or more out - depending on no further bumps.
HERE IS A SPEED BUMP - Amid pushback from industry and lawmakers in both parties, federal energy regulators on Thursday scaled back plans to consider how natural gas projects affect climate change and environmental justice. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission said a plan to consider climate effects will now be considered a draft and will only apply to future projects.
Industry groups and key lawmakers had criticized a proposal approved last month to tighten climate rules, saying it was poorly timed amid a push for increased natural gas exports following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
OVERALL OBSERVATION - The economy is hemorrhaging on many fronts. High fuel costs are making shortage based inflation even worse with no relief in the near or long term. Conditions are very ripe for the Fed to over react and raise rates too fast, driving the economy into a depression. There is already a high probability of a recession.
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Invasion of Illegals - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Illegals continue to push across the border with record numbers of intercepts
February 2022 was another record month of illegal immigration.
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Biden/Harris watch - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Mental facilities continue to degrade. Harris’ mental capabilities are also questionable.
Re a Russian chemical attack question, Biden forcefully insisted that the United States would “respond” were that to happen. But he’s not saying what form our response would take, insisting that the response would depend on the nature of the attack.
biden visiting Poland for photo ops.
Hunter biden laptop probe gaining traction in liberal media and congressional investigations. Some pundits are speculating that this could actually be used to leverage biden out of the WH. However they have to deal with a problem named Kamala. This would essentially mean that democrats would have to replace the entire presidential team before the 2024 elections.
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CW2/Domestic violence - YELLOW trending upward *updated 03/25/22*
DISCUSSION - BLM/Antifa showing increasing trends to respond with violence to political activities (marches, meetings, etc) on the right. Increase early calls to show up armed and willing to kill. Increased first aid and riot training. Rampant crime continues with it migrating into affluent areas.
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CANCEL CULTURE FRONT - YELLOW *updated 01-28-22*
Continued high tech censoring of conservative views.
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POLITICAL FRONT - YELLOW and increasing *updated 01-28-22*
biden USSC nominee likely to pass, but by a hair.
Forecast for democrats is that they are going to get hammered in the midterms. 30 democrats have already announced ‘retirement’ ahead of the elections - an indicator of rats fleeing the ship. Democrats leadership continue full speed ahead on measures that the general public are against, but are favored by the progressive/leftist wing of the party.
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Domestic Terror - BLUE
Under watch as US enemies get emboldened by the biden administration weakness on anti terror policy.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments - ORANGE (UPDATED 01/21/2022) *status raised*
US forces are at an increased state of readiness due to the Ukrainian war and unrest in the rest of the world.
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Cyber Warfare - YELLOW
Continued warnings of Russian cyber attacks against US power and financial networks.
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China - ORANGE trending neutral to upward
Xi facing rumblings of a removal as China’s economy stumbles and the powers that be are increasingly disturbed over his authoritarian actions as President. The Evergrande (and other, smaller property management / development companies) melt down threatens to shake apart the economy in a manner even larger than Lehman’s did in 2008.
China facing other economic shocks due to renewed lockdowns of industrial cities and port areas over wuhan.
China also flexing its muscles over Taiwan. RUMINT that China may try to move on Taiwan sometime this fall.
China also toeing a fine line in its support of Russia, not wanting to be too overt so as to avoid economic sanctions.
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India/China - BLUE MOVING TOWARDS YELLOW *updated 120421*
China continues to build military bases in the disputed border regions
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North Korea - ORANGE tending upward (UPDATED 03-25-22)
Status alert increased to ORANGE.
N. Korean missile capability warrants early deployment of new missile interceptors: U.S. commander.
OBSERVATION - Remember President Reagan’s “Star Wars” defense that was so put down by the left. His vision has at least given us some chance against missiles attacks with todays ABM systems.
Evidence that NK may be preparing for another underground nuclear test is growing.
NK now has a valid ICBM delivery system capable of MIRV warheads - depending on the size of the warhead. The next nuclear test will likely be of one of those warheads.
SK has elected a more conservative government that is expected to take a harder line against NK - especially its weapons testing. SK responses to NK tests have been the sharpest that I can remember. This may stimulate NK to increase its development tempo.
Potential flash point for conflict in the coming months.
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Japan - BLUE trending upward (updated 03-25-22
Regional instability from China and NK are increasing Japan’s concerns and have resulted in increased military spending.
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Russia - RED * updated 02-18-22*
DISCUSSION - INCREASED WARNING ONGOING -
WAR WATCH - This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin executing gross bombing campaign on Ukrainan civliians due to failure of the ground assault. Military has lost tens of thousands of soldiers to death/wounds and tons of equipment. Army scrambling to get replacements.
Increased concerns that Russia may deploy NBC weapons to regain the offensive momentum.
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RUMINT - Reports that Ukraine got the 49th Combined Army’s commanding general.
Russian commander of the 37th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, colonel Yuri Medvedev was run over by a tank of his own unit after casualties in Ukraine. This confirmed a posted radio intercept by a Russian officer that also complained that 50% of his force was suffering from frostbite.
OBSERVATION - Vietnam era, this would be called a form of ‘fragging’. Evidence of the desperation of Russian troops in the face of a poorly organized war that went south from the start. The low morale and supply shortages likely being reflected now in Russian losses of ground gained early on.
Additionally, Russia has lost a lot of senior commanders - this only makes matters worse on the ground as leadership issues get worse at all levels.
Russian precision-guided missiles are failing up to 60% of the time in Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of intelligence on the issue told Reuters, a possible explanation for the poor progress of Russia’s invasion.
OBSERVATION - The officials said the failure rate depended on the weapon, the worst cases being cruse missiles. There are a lot of reports of Russian ‘dummy’ bombs not going off either. Ukraine EOD units being overwhelmed. However, I don’t think this issue is a “possible explanation for the poor progress of Russia’s invasion”. The greater factor is poor Russian training, preparation and logistics of the ground assault.
Reinforcements -
- New BTGs being brought into the fight from Russia’s far east and Kaliningrad, but they have not had much training.
- The Kremlin is facing challenges deciding how and where to replenish spent ground forces. With the emergent Ukrainian counter offensives further decimating their forces and losing ground gained early on, the military’s planning cycle is sorely inadequate to put forces where they are needed to attain their goals.
- The Ukrainian General Staff stated on March 24 that the Kremlin is prioritizing restoring combat capabilities in VDV (airborne) units. The General Staff reported Russian commanders are increasingly deploying reserve officers, conscripts, and obsolete armored vehicles to replace losses.
- Replacement forces are being judged to be subpar - even worse than those who were committed to the initial assault. Same goes for equipment which in many cases is old and poorly maintained.
- A joke from Moscow: “According to Putin the special military operation is really a conflict btw Russia and NATO about World dominance. Whats the situation now?” “Russia has lost 15000 troops, 6 generals, 500 tanks, 3 ships, 100 planes and 1000 trucks. NATO hasn’t arrived yet.”
Economic Hits -
- The US and G7 freeze the Russian Central Bank’s gold reserves. This is 20% of the central bank’s total assets, between $100 to $140 billion.
- Senate working on bill to remove most favored nation status for Russia.
- Finland suspends it’s only passenger rail connection to Russia. Connection was kept open until now to allow Finns and other foreigners a way out Saint Petersburg.
- Biden saying he is in favor of kicking Russia out of the G20 group of major economies in response to the invasion of Ukraine.
- US/EU agreement to increase LNG supply to replace Russian natural gas.
- Moody’s Investors Service said on Thursday it intends to withdraw its credit ratings on Russian entities, following similar moves by Fitch and S&P Global Ratings.
- The Russian stock market opened Thursday for limited trading under heavy restrictions for the first time since Moscow invaded Ukraine, coming almost a month after prices plunged and the market was shut down as a way to insulate the Russian economy from stiff Western sanctions. Trading of a limited number of stocks, including energy giants Gazprom and Rosneft, took place under curbs meant to prevent a repeat of the massive selloff on Feb. 24 that came in anticipation of American and European economic sanctions.
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Ukraine - RED *updated 02-18-22* - The battle for Kyiv and Ukraine has entered its second month.
WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru April 3d show warm with increasing rain/showers. Conditions likely to keep off road operations unfavorable.
RUNINT -
According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russian forces are increasingly taking Ukrainians to Russian territory. From the so-called filtration camps, people have been sent to economically weak regions, with data suggesting Sakhalin as one of these areas.
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Dramatic ground gains by Ukraine forces in most sectors have forces Russian troops to dig in.
Russia has had to devote more combat troops to protect logistical trains and reduce front line forces.
Conditions in Mariupol are still critical.
Russia continues to indiscriminately attack civilian facilities and residential areas. Many towns turned completely to rubble.
Russian amphibious ship loss follow up -
Open reports say that the Russian Pr. 1171 (Alligator) LST “Orsk” was destroyed in the Ukraine strike yesterday, with 50 KIA. However, there is confusion if this was the actual ship or its sister ship, the Saratov. The Orsk was featured in a Russian TV spot a few days before the strike unloading ammo at the port. However, this is where it gets interesting, other sources state Orsk left once unloading was done, and that its place was taken by sister Saratov loaded with ammunition (presumably for the same unit), and that it’s Saratov that’s now a burning wreck. Saratov would be the other Alligator class ship in the region.
The other two amphibious assault ships, Project 775-class landing ships, Caesar Kunikov’ and Novocherkassk’ escaped the port. Both were damaged and had casualties (11 wounded, 3 dead). Extent of damage still not known.
Bottom line is, the attack removed at least one ship from the roster and damaged two others.
A Sentinel satellite did a pass over Berdyansk only a few hours after the port was hit. Initial assessment of imagery suggests that there is some damage to the infrastructure at the port/pier.
CAUSE - Russian sources say fragments from a shot down Tochka caused a fire in the port & an explosion of fuel & ammo, which spread to the ship. Ukraine said it was a hit from a TB-2 drone, setting off the chain reaction explosion. A TB-2 strike to me is more likely as the only video I saw showed a small explosion that preceded the ammo going off. The explosive ‘puff’ was similar to those I’ve seen of other TB-2 strikes that didn’t set of a catastrophic explosion immediately.
The two Project 775-class landing ships, Caesar Kunikov’ and Novocherkassk’ were seen on satellite imagery heading back to navy base Sevastopol in Crimea and are now believed in Sevastopol.
Kyiv front -
Ukraine continues to make gains to close the salient northwest of Kyiv. Attacks are being pressed to retake Hostomel, Bucha and Irpin.
Russian forces in Bucha and Nemishevska (just northwest of ongoing fighting in Irpin) are reported to be constructing new trench lines in the past 24 hours as they switch to the defense.
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Ukraine attacks have forced Russian forces away from Kyiv and back toward Chernihv. Russian forces are observed digging in and switching to a predominantly defensive posture. and reportedly have massed a lot of artillery to support the attack as well as continue to pound Chernihv.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Ukrainan forces consolidated gains made over the past two days that gained 15-20 km of territory, creating a 50 km buffer from attacking forces. Sources say the town of Lukyankovka (there are apparently two Lukyankovka - this isn’t the suburb of Kyiv but further east) in Kyiv Oblast has been taken back from Russians. This means Ukrainian forces have advanced 10-13 km along the key H-07 highway running east to Sumy.
There is evidence of a surrounded Russian force in vicinity of Nova Basan - located east of Brovary. See figure links below.
Russian and Ukraine forces still are clashing in the vicinity of the town of Izyum (Izium). Both sides claim control of the town. However, Russian advances are essentially stalled - again.
Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Conditions in Mariupol continue to be desperate with bombing killing hundreds of civilians. Evidence that some elements of Russian forces have penetrated to the center of the city. Local civil authorities have relocated to an adjacent town to improve communications with defenders as well as Kyiv. The Mariupol City Administration reported on March 24 that Russian forces are using loudspeakers to falsely claim to Mariupol residents that Zaporizhia is no longer accepting refugees, the Ukrainian government has abandoned them, and that Russian forces have captured Odesa. City authorities additionally reported Russian forces have forcibly deported approximately 6,000 Mariupol residents to Russia as of March 24.
Crimea Front -
Ukranian forces continue to press their attack towards Kherson. Ukraine attacking RU forces defending east bank of Bug River near Mykolaiv
Russian advances to Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia are increasingly in danger as their logistics are over extended and Ukraine forces press localized raids and counter attacks. Advace by Russians in these two areas has been stalled for over a week.
The following link kind of depicts Ukraine’s drive towards Kherson. The blue represents formerly Russian controlled territory now recaptured by Ukraine and are forming the axis of attacks towards Kherson and Russian controlled areas (yellow)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOps-KDWUAUINSs?format=jpg&name=360x360
Russian amphibious operations against the Odessa region are off the table for now. An Admiral Grigorovich Class Frigate seen operating off Odessa, Ukraine today
This ship can carry
8 x Kalibr (SS-N-27 SIZZLER) or P-Oniks (SS-C-5 STOOGE) Missiles
24 × SA-N-7B ‘GRIZLY’ SAMs
1 x Naval gun
Helicopter
Torpedoes, ASW rockets, AAA
A NOTE ON MAPS - Please bear with me, Html postings of maps in this thread would greatly increase my time producing this post as I would have to add html through out the whole document. The links to maps, in conjunction with the above text, help conceptualize the operations.
Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg
However, the following link depicts the effects fo the Ukrainan counter offensive is a better manner. On this map, the “orange” depicts Russian forward operating positions. However, it also depicts areas that Ukraine has taken back recently from Russia.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOp09qqXMAEtJ_W?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
OUTLOOK -
More of the same. Massive bombing and artillery on residential areas with the goal to turn cities into rubble and demoralize Ukraine.
Ukraine offensives around Kyiv to continue and likely cut off Russian forces - especially in the northwest.
The siege of Mariupol will likely be ending soon with the eventual capture of the city. Hard to see it holding out much longer. Expect massive war crimes against citizens.
Kherson may well fall this next week as the western Crimea front falters. Any amphibious assault to the west of Odessa is out of the question for the foreseeable future.
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Belarus - RED *updated 01-02-28*
DISCUSSION - Managing to keep its forces in country and not commit to ground combat in Ukraine.
Continued troop movements towards the southwestern corner of the country that could be prepositioning for an assault into western Ukraine.
The United States, the European Union and largely western allies have blocked Belarus’ bid to join the World Trade Organization, saying its complicity in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine makes it unfit for membership in the global trade group.
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Poland - ORANGE trending upward *updated 3-18-22*
DISCUSSION - Poland could well be within Russian crosshairs for its operation in resupplying Ukrainian forces.
Continued Ukraine resupply hub for humanitarian and military supplies to Ukraine.
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Europe / NATO General - ORANGE *updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - Increasing potential that NATO will become involved in an Ukraine invasion as Poland, Romania and the Baltic Nations respond.
NATO meeting yesterday did very little other than a big rah-rah photo op. Support - military and humanitarian - were discussed. Among military assistance included discussions of anti-ship missiles for Ukraine.
Unified warning to Putin not to use NBC weapons.
Biden has Officially Stated at a Press Conference today at the NATO Headquarters in Brussels that if Russia uses Chemical Weapons in Ukraine that the U.S/NATO would “Respond in Kind”, though the Kind of Response would depend on the Nature of the Attack.
Biden was previously Quoted to have Stated that even if Russia used Non-Conventional Weapons in Ukraine such as Chemical Weapons that the U.S would still not Directly Respond, this Statement today represents a Significant Shift in U.S/NATO Stance on the Invasion.
The US and the EU have announced a major deal on liquified natural gas, in an attempt to reduce Europe’s reliance on Russian energy.
The agreement will see the US provide the EU with at least 15 billion additional cubic metres of the fuel - known as LNG - by the end of the year. The bloc has already said it will cut Russian gas use in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
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Israel - ORANGE trending neutral to upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Ongoing threat from Hezbollah and Iran continues.
Jordan’s King Abdullah plans to travel to Ramallah in the West Bank for a meeting with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, amid increasing tensions in the West Bank, and east Jerusalem ahead of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.
OBSERVATION - Visit designed to cut off political violence in the West Bank as new leadership is being elected. Hamas has made inroads radicalizing Palestinians in the West Bank and this creates friction with more moderate arabs. Right now the Palestinan authority is loosing ground to Hamas.
Russian Ambassador to Syria Alexander Efimov warned Thursday that Israeli strikes in Syria are “provoking” Russia to react, in one of the strongest Russian condemnations of Israeli operations in Syria.
OBSERVATION- Russia and Israel have been closely coordinating so Israeli air strikes of Hezbollah sites don’t hit Russians as well. Probably the fact that it acted to mediate the war on Ukrainian behalf has irritated Russia
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Iran - ORANGE and increasing *(updated 03-25-22)*
Iran is getting all it wants in nuclear negotiations with the US and renewed flow of money will enable it to resume a higher tempo of weapons (nuclear and conventional) development, arming Hezbollah and other proxy forces in the region and prepare for eventual conflict with Israel.
Recent missile attacks on Iraq and cyber attack on Israel show Iran is less fearful of retaliations.
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Saudi Arabia - YELLOW and increasing (Updated 03/25/22)
Houthi’s launched an attack on an Aramco Facility in Jeddah. Set an oil tank on fire. Same facility was targeted last week.
Houthi attacks have increased in recent days, probably reflecting greater support from Iran as US foreign policy weakens. Could be reflecting a new series of attacks on SA oil refineries and production.
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Syria - YELLOW
See Israel above on Russian impatience with Israel.
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Armenia/Azerbaijan - BLUE ( updated 03/25/22)
Reports of Azeri forces attacking Armenian cities because Russia has pulled out troops to fight in Ukraine has created a power vacuum and opportunity for renewed fighting in the region.
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