Long report again, took a lot of time to sort thru information for this weekly temperature check.
Temperature Gauge - Threat Trending Code Color Key
BLACK - An area worth noting, but not immediately impacting on US safety
BLUE - Incidents increasing and needing further monitoring, low threat to the US
YELLOW - This is the moderate concern level. Definitely becoming a threat but in the longer term.
ORANGE - A definite threat in both short term and long term. Some active events occurring
RED - Active and ongoing. Examples of this would be 2020 rioting, etc.
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Globalism / Great Reset - YELLOW trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Ukraine war has allowed GGR to operate towards the ‘reset’ without much news coverage. GGR evaluating global impacts to food supplies and economies for exploitation to the globalist cause. GGR cadre, are heaping food scarcity on top of the supply chain crisis, fuel crisis, and violent crime epidemics they’ve already brought us. Exploitation and creation of crisis - in order to get the people to turn to the global ‘saviors’ as the price of lost liberty and freedom.
BlackRock Inc’s (BLK.N) chief executive, Larry Fink, said on Thursday that the Russia-Ukraine war could end up accelerating digital currencies as a tool to settle international transactions, as the conflict upends the globalization drive of the last three decades.
In a letter to the shareholders of the world’s largest asset manager, Fink said the war will push countries to reassess currency dependencies, and that BlackRock was studying digital currencies and stablecoins due to increased client interest.
“A global digital payment system, thoughtfully designed, can enhance the settlement of international transactions while reducing the risk of money laundering and corruption”, he said.
OBSERVATION - Blackrock is deep in the GGR pocket, in this instance, revealing one aspect of GGR evaluation of controlling global financial transactions via international digital currency.
Can be noted under Economy as well. Experts say American shoppers will begin to see higher grocery bills as the war in Ukraine threatens global food supplies.
President Biden said Thursday that a food shortage is “gonna be real” following the sanctions that were placed on Russia by the U.S. government as a result of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion into Ukraine.
“With regard to food shortage, yes we did talk about food shortages, and it’s gonna be real,” Biden said during a press conference at a NATO summit in Brussels, Belgium, following a meeting with other world leaders.
“The price of the sanctions is not just imposed upon Russia,” he added. “It’s imposed upon an awful lot of countries as well, including European countries and our country as well.”
OBSERVATION - He who controls the food, controls the world. I’ve noted for the past couple years that the global food situation is getting worse, and this maybe the year it unravels. Stock up now.
MORE - It was no secret by 2021, China panic hoarded half of the world’s maize and other grains resulting in increased food inflation.
China’s buying spree of all commodities left many market observers puzzled by Beijing’s stockpiling motives. Now we understand the second-largest economy in the world was forecasting a global catastrophe of widespread famine due to disrupted food supply chains.
MORE FOOD RELATED - World Bank President David Malpass told people not to store food or gasoline in spite of the massive spike in prices since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. “The right thing to do in these current circumstances is not to go out and buy extra flour or extra gasoline, it’s to recognize that the world is a dynamic global economy and will respond. There’ll be enough to go around,” Malpass said.
OBSERVATION - Stockpiling is one means to mitigate a food crisis. To discourage storage is to permit the GGR to manipulate supplies to coerce resistant populations.
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Wuhan virus - YELLOW *last updated 12-10-21*
DISCUSSION - News largely overwhelmed by Ukraine reporting. Some rules are being silently locked in while other mandates are being removed/suspended. The distraction of war is allowing the remnants of mandates to be hidden for later use - as needed.
Continued warnings of a new variant by Fauci et al. amid new calls for more funding by the left for wuhan control measures.
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Economy - RED * Updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - Fed raised rates .25% with increased inflation pressures due in part to housing and gasoline. Fed now looking to the next raises being even higher, as much as double earlier projections.
Average price of gasoline now at $4.24/gallon
Orders at U.S. factories for long-lasting goods fell more than expected in February, snapping a months-long streak of increases and business investment as manufacturers confronted a worsening supply chain crisis. Bookings for all durable goods – products that are intended to last at least three years – fell 2.2%, the first decline in five months, the government reported on Thursday. Economists surveyed by Refinitiv forecast a 0.5% decline.
OBSERVATION - This is pre-Ukraine war, so those impacts haven’t hit the reporting cycle yet. Supply issues are part, but February also saw considerable inflation increases - even before the Ukraine related gasoline increases. People were already reprioritizing their spending to essentials.
Sticking it to US steel plants. The U.S. and U.K. struck a trade accord Tuesday that will remove U.S. tariffs on British steel and aluminum, while the U.K. will lift levies on American whiskey, motorcycles and tobacco.
Biden administration officials said the agreement with the U.K. will allow the U.K to ship “historically-based sustainable volumes” of steel and aluminum products to the U.S. without levies imposed under the former Trump administration.
U.S. oil and gas company output saw its highest activity in at least six years. The Federal Reserve of Dallas surveyed major industries, finding that 15% of large firms plan to increase growth by 30% this year. Respondents predicted U.S. crude could return to pre-invasion levels by end of year. These long-term predictions contrast short-term forecasts with some top oil traders warning prices could pass $200 a barrel.
OBSERVATION - Production is ramping up, but potential relief is still 6 months or more out - depending on no further bumps.
HERE IS A SPEED BUMP - Amid pushback from industry and lawmakers in both parties, federal energy regulators on Thursday scaled back plans to consider how natural gas projects affect climate change and environmental justice. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission said a plan to consider climate effects will now be considered a draft and will only apply to future projects.
Industry groups and key lawmakers had criticized a proposal approved last month to tighten climate rules, saying it was poorly timed amid a push for increased natural gas exports following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
OVERALL OBSERVATION - The economy is hemorrhaging on many fronts. High fuel costs are making shortage based inflation even worse with no relief in the near or long term. Conditions are very ripe for the Fed to over react and raise rates too fast, driving the economy into a depression. There is already a high probability of a recession.
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Invasion of Illegals - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Illegals continue to push across the border with record numbers of intercepts
February 2022 was another record month of illegal immigration.
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Biden/Harris watch - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Mental facilities continue to degrade. Harris’ mental capabilities are also questionable.
Re a Russian chemical attack question, Biden forcefully insisted that the United States would “respond” were that to happen. But he’s not saying what form our response would take, insisting that the response would depend on the nature of the attack.
biden visiting Poland for photo ops.
Hunter biden laptop probe gaining traction in liberal media and congressional investigations. Some pundits are speculating that this could actually be used to leverage biden out of the WH. However they have to deal with a problem named Kamala. This would essentially mean that democrats would have to replace the entire presidential team before the 2024 elections.
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CW2/Domestic violence - YELLOW trending upward *updated 03/25/22*
DISCUSSION - BLM/Antifa showing increasing trends to respond with violence to political activities (marches, meetings, etc) on the right. Increase early calls to show up armed and willing to kill. Increased first aid and riot training. Rampant crime continues with it migrating into affluent areas.
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CANCEL CULTURE FRONT - YELLOW *updated 01-28-22*
Continued high tech censoring of conservative views.
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POLITICAL FRONT - YELLOW and increasing *updated 01-28-22*
biden USSC nominee likely to pass, but by a hair.
Forecast for democrats is that they are going to get hammered in the midterms. 30 democrats have already announced ‘retirement’ ahead of the elections - an indicator of rats fleeing the ship. Democrats leadership continue full speed ahead on measures that the general public are against, but are favored by the progressive/leftist wing of the party.
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Domestic Terror - BLUE
Under watch as US enemies get emboldened by the biden administration weakness on anti terror policy.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments - ORANGE (UPDATED 01/21/2022) *status raised*
US forces are at an increased state of readiness due to the Ukrainian war and unrest in the rest of the world.
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Cyber Warfare - YELLOW
Continued warnings of Russian cyber attacks against US power and financial networks.
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China - ORANGE trending neutral to upward
Xi facing rumblings of a removal as China’s economy stumbles and the powers that be are increasingly disturbed over his authoritarian actions as President. The Evergrande (and other, smaller property management / development companies) melt down threatens to shake apart the economy in a manner even larger than Lehman’s did in 2008.
China facing other economic shocks due to renewed lockdowns of industrial cities and port areas over wuhan.
China also flexing its muscles over Taiwan. RUMINT that China may try to move on Taiwan sometime this fall.
China also toeing a fine line in its support of Russia, not wanting to be too overt so as to avoid economic sanctions.
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India/China - BLUE MOVING TOWARDS YELLOW *updated 120421*
China continues to build military bases in the disputed border regions
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North Korea - ORANGE tending upward (UPDATED 03-25-22)
Status alert increased to ORANGE.
N. Korean missile capability warrants early deployment of new missile interceptors: U.S. commander.
OBSERVATION - Remember President Reagan’s “Star Wars” defense that was so put down by the left. His vision has at least given us some chance against missiles attacks with todays ABM systems.
Evidence that NK may be preparing for another underground nuclear test is growing.
NK now has a valid ICBM delivery system capable of MIRV warheads - depending on the size of the warhead. The next nuclear test will likely be of one of those warheads.
SK has elected a more conservative government that is expected to take a harder line against NK - especially its weapons testing. SK responses to NK tests have been the sharpest that I can remember. This may stimulate NK to increase its development tempo.
Potential flash point for conflict in the coming months.
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Japan - BLUE trending upward (updated 03-25-22
Regional instability from China and NK are increasing Japan’s concerns and have resulted in increased military spending.
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Russia - RED * updated 02-18-22*
DISCUSSION - INCREASED WARNING ONGOING -
WAR WATCH - This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin executing gross bombing campaign on Ukrainan civliians due to failure of the ground assault. Military has lost tens of thousands of soldiers to death/wounds and tons of equipment. Army scrambling to get replacements.
Increased concerns that Russia may deploy NBC weapons to regain the offensive momentum.
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RUMINT - Reports that Ukraine got the 49th Combined Army’s commanding general.
Russian commander of the 37th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, colonel Yuri Medvedev was run over by a tank of his own unit after casualties in Ukraine. This confirmed a posted radio intercept by a Russian officer that also complained that 50% of his force was suffering from frostbite.
OBSERVATION - Vietnam era, this would be called a form of ‘fragging’. Evidence of the desperation of Russian troops in the face of a poorly organized war that went south from the start. The low morale and supply shortages likely being reflected now in Russian losses of ground gained early on.
Additionally, Russia has lost a lot of senior commanders - this only makes matters worse on the ground as leadership issues get worse at all levels.
Russian precision-guided missiles are failing up to 60% of the time in Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of intelligence on the issue told Reuters, a possible explanation for the poor progress of Russia’s invasion.
OBSERVATION - The officials said the failure rate depended on the weapon, the worst cases being cruse missiles. There are a lot of reports of Russian ‘dummy’ bombs not going off either. Ukraine EOD units being overwhelmed. However, I don’t think this issue is a “possible explanation for the poor progress of Russia’s invasion”. The greater factor is poor Russian training, preparation and logistics of the ground assault.
Reinforcements -
- New BTGs being brought into the fight from Russia’s far east and Kaliningrad, but they have not had much training.
- The Kremlin is facing challenges deciding how and where to replenish spent ground forces. With the emergent Ukrainian counter offensives further decimating their forces and losing ground gained early on, the military’s planning cycle is sorely inadequate to put forces where they are needed to attain their goals.
- The Ukrainian General Staff stated on March 24 that the Kremlin is prioritizing restoring combat capabilities in VDV (airborne) units. The General Staff reported Russian commanders are increasingly deploying reserve officers, conscripts, and obsolete armored vehicles to replace losses.
- Replacement forces are being judged to be subpar - even worse than those who were committed to the initial assault. Same goes for equipment which in many cases is old and poorly maintained.
- A joke from Moscow: “According to Putin the special military operation is really a conflict btw Russia and NATO about World dominance. Whats the situation now?” “Russia has lost 15000 troops, 6 generals, 500 tanks, 3 ships, 100 planes and 1000 trucks. NATO hasn’t arrived yet.”
Economic Hits -
- The US and G7 freeze the Russian Central Bank’s gold reserves. This is 20% of the central bank’s total assets, between $100 to $140 billion.
- Senate working on bill to remove most favored nation status for Russia.
- Finland suspends it’s only passenger rail connection to Russia. Connection was kept open until now to allow Finns and other foreigners a way out Saint Petersburg.
- Biden saying he is in favor of kicking Russia out of the G20 group of major economies in response to the invasion of Ukraine.
- US/EU agreement to increase LNG supply to replace Russian natural gas.
- Moody’s Investors Service said on Thursday it intends to withdraw its credit ratings on Russian entities, following similar moves by Fitch and S&P Global Ratings.
- The Russian stock market opened Thursday for limited trading under heavy restrictions for the first time since Moscow invaded Ukraine, coming almost a month after prices plunged and the market was shut down as a way to insulate the Russian economy from stiff Western sanctions. Trading of a limited number of stocks, including energy giants Gazprom and Rosneft, took place under curbs meant to prevent a repeat of the massive selloff on Feb. 24 that came in anticipation of American and European economic sanctions.
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Ukraine - RED *updated 02-18-22* - The battle for Kyiv and Ukraine has entered its second month.
WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru April 3d show warm with increasing rain/showers. Conditions likely to keep off road operations unfavorable.
RUNINT -
According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russian forces are increasingly taking Ukrainians to Russian territory. From the so-called filtration camps, people have been sent to economically weak regions, with data suggesting Sakhalin as one of these areas.
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Dramatic ground gains by Ukraine forces in most sectors have forces Russian troops to dig in.
Russia has had to devote more combat troops to protect logistical trains and reduce front line forces.
Conditions in Mariupol are still critical.
Russia continues to indiscriminately attack civilian facilities and residential areas. Many towns turned completely to rubble.
Russian amphibious ship loss follow up -
Open reports say that the Russian Pr. 1171 (Alligator) LST “Orsk” was destroyed in the Ukraine strike yesterday, with 50 KIA. However, there is confusion if this was the actual ship or its sister ship, the Saratov. The Orsk was featured in a Russian TV spot a few days before the strike unloading ammo at the port. However, this is where it gets interesting, other sources state Orsk left once unloading was done, and that its place was taken by sister Saratov loaded with ammunition (presumably for the same unit), and that it’s Saratov that’s now a burning wreck. Saratov would be the other Alligator class ship in the region.
The other two amphibious assault ships, Project 775-class landing ships, Caesar Kunikov’ and Novocherkassk’ escaped the port. Both were damaged and had casualties (11 wounded, 3 dead). Extent of damage still not known.
Bottom line is, the attack removed at least one ship from the roster and damaged two others.
A Sentinel satellite did a pass over Berdyansk only a few hours after the port was hit. Initial assessment of imagery suggests that there is some damage to the infrastructure at the port/pier.
CAUSE - Russian sources say fragments from a shot down Tochka caused a fire in the port & an explosion of fuel & ammo, which spread to the ship. Ukraine said it was a hit from a TB-2 drone, setting off the chain reaction explosion. A TB-2 strike to me is more likely as the only video I saw showed a small explosion that preceded the ammo going off. The explosive ‘puff’ was similar to those I’ve seen of other TB-2 strikes that didn’t set of a catastrophic explosion immediately.
The two Project 775-class landing ships, Caesar Kunikov’ and Novocherkassk’ were seen on satellite imagery heading back to navy base Sevastopol in Crimea and are now believed in Sevastopol.
Kyiv front -
Ukraine continues to make gains to close the salient northwest of Kyiv. Attacks are being pressed to retake Hostomel, Bucha and Irpin.
Russian forces in Bucha and Nemishevska (just northwest of ongoing fighting in Irpin) are reported to be constructing new trench lines in the past 24 hours as they switch to the defense.
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Ukraine attacks have forced Russian forces away from Kyiv and back toward Chernihv. Russian forces are observed digging in and switching to a predominantly defensive posture. and reportedly have massed a lot of artillery to support the attack as well as continue to pound Chernihv.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Ukrainan forces consolidated gains made over the past two days that gained 15-20 km of territory, creating a 50 km buffer from attacking forces. Sources say the town of Lukyankovka (there are apparently two Lukyankovka - this isn’t the suburb of Kyiv but further east) in Kyiv Oblast has been taken back from Russians. This means Ukrainian forces have advanced 10-13 km along the key H-07 highway running east to Sumy.
There is evidence of a surrounded Russian force in vicinity of Nova Basan - located east of Brovary. See figure links below.
Russian and Ukraine forces still are clashing in the vicinity of the town of Izyum (Izium). Both sides claim control of the town. However, Russian advances are essentially stalled - again.
Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Conditions in Mariupol continue to be desperate with bombing killing hundreds of civilians. Evidence that some elements of Russian forces have penetrated to the center of the city. Local civil authorities have relocated to an adjacent town to improve communications with defenders as well as Kyiv. The Mariupol City Administration reported on March 24 that Russian forces are using loudspeakers to falsely claim to Mariupol residents that Zaporizhia is no longer accepting refugees, the Ukrainian government has abandoned them, and that Russian forces have captured Odesa. City authorities additionally reported Russian forces have forcibly deported approximately 6,000 Mariupol residents to Russia as of March 24.
Crimea Front -
Ukranian forces continue to press their attack towards Kherson. Ukraine attacking RU forces defending east bank of Bug River near Mykolaiv
Russian advances to Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia are increasingly in danger as their logistics are over extended and Ukraine forces press localized raids and counter attacks. Advace by Russians in these two areas has been stalled for over a week.
The following link kind of depicts Ukraine’s drive towards Kherson. The blue represents formerly Russian controlled territory now recaptured by Ukraine and are forming the axis of attacks towards Kherson and Russian controlled areas (yellow)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOps-KDWUAUINSs?format=jpg&name=360x360
Russian amphibious operations against the Odessa region are off the table for now. An Admiral Grigorovich Class Frigate seen operating off Odessa, Ukraine today
This ship can carry
8 x Kalibr (SS-N-27 SIZZLER) or P-Oniks (SS-C-5 STOOGE) Missiles
24 × SA-N-7B ‘GRIZLY’ SAMs
1 x Naval gun
Helicopter
Torpedoes, ASW rockets, AAA
A NOTE ON MAPS - Please bear with me, Html postings of maps in this thread would greatly increase my time producing this post as I would have to add html through out the whole document. The links to maps, in conjunction with the above text, help conceptualize the operations.
Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg
However, the following link depicts the effects fo the Ukrainan counter offensive is a better manner. On this map, the “orange” depicts Russian forward operating positions. However, it also depicts areas that Ukraine has taken back recently from Russia.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOp09qqXMAEtJ_W?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
OUTLOOK -
More of the same. Massive bombing and artillery on residential areas with the goal to turn cities into rubble and demoralize Ukraine.
Ukraine offensives around Kyiv to continue and likely cut off Russian forces - especially in the northwest.
The siege of Mariupol will likely be ending soon with the eventual capture of the city. Hard to see it holding out much longer. Expect massive war crimes against citizens.
Kherson may well fall this next week as the western Crimea front falters. Any amphibious assault to the west of Odessa is out of the question for the foreseeable future.
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Belarus - RED *updated 01-02-28*
DISCUSSION - Managing to keep its forces in country and not commit to ground combat in Ukraine.
Continued troop movements towards the southwestern corner of the country that could be prepositioning for an assault into western Ukraine.
The United States, the European Union and largely western allies have blocked Belarus’ bid to join the World Trade Organization, saying its complicity in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine makes it unfit for membership in the global trade group.
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Poland - ORANGE trending upward *updated 3-18-22*
DISCUSSION - Poland could well be within Russian crosshairs for its operation in resupplying Ukrainian forces.
Continued Ukraine resupply hub for humanitarian and military supplies to Ukraine.
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Europe / NATO General - ORANGE *updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - Increasing potential that NATO will become involved in an Ukraine invasion as Poland, Romania and the Baltic Nations respond.
NATO meeting yesterday did very little other than a big rah-rah photo op. Support - military and humanitarian - were discussed. Among military assistance included discussions of anti-ship missiles for Ukraine.
Unified warning to Putin not to use NBC weapons.
Biden has Officially Stated at a Press Conference today at the NATO Headquarters in Brussels that if Russia uses Chemical Weapons in Ukraine that the U.S/NATO would “Respond in Kind”, though the Kind of Response would depend on the Nature of the Attack.
Biden was previously Quoted to have Stated that even if Russia used Non-Conventional Weapons in Ukraine such as Chemical Weapons that the U.S would still not Directly Respond, this Statement today represents a Significant Shift in U.S/NATO Stance on the Invasion.
The US and the EU have announced a major deal on liquified natural gas, in an attempt to reduce Europe’s reliance on Russian energy.
The agreement will see the US provide the EU with at least 15 billion additional cubic metres of the fuel - known as LNG - by the end of the year. The bloc has already said it will cut Russian gas use in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
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Israel - ORANGE trending neutral to upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Ongoing threat from Hezbollah and Iran continues.
Jordan’s King Abdullah plans to travel to Ramallah in the West Bank for a meeting with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, amid increasing tensions in the West Bank, and east Jerusalem ahead of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.
OBSERVATION - Visit designed to cut off political violence in the West Bank as new leadership is being elected. Hamas has made inroads radicalizing Palestinians in the West Bank and this creates friction with more moderate arabs. Right now the Palestinan authority is loosing ground to Hamas.
Russian Ambassador to Syria Alexander Efimov warned Thursday that Israeli strikes in Syria are “provoking” Russia to react, in one of the strongest Russian condemnations of Israeli operations in Syria.
OBSERVATION- Russia and Israel have been closely coordinating so Israeli air strikes of Hezbollah sites don’t hit Russians as well. Probably the fact that it acted to mediate the war on Ukrainian behalf has irritated Russia
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Iran - ORANGE and increasing *(updated 03-25-22)*
Iran is getting all it wants in nuclear negotiations with the US and renewed flow of money will enable it to resume a higher tempo of weapons (nuclear and conventional) development, arming Hezbollah and other proxy forces in the region and prepare for eventual conflict with Israel.
Recent missile attacks on Iraq and cyber attack on Israel show Iran is less fearful of retaliations.
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Saudi Arabia - YELLOW and increasing (Updated 03/25/22)
Houthi’s launched an attack on an Aramco Facility in Jeddah. Set an oil tank on fire. Same facility was targeted last week.
Houthi attacks have increased in recent days, probably reflecting greater support from Iran as US foreign policy weakens. Could be reflecting a new series of attacks on SA oil refineries and production.
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Syria - YELLOW
See Israel above on Russian impatience with Israel.
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Armenia/Azerbaijan - BLUE ( updated 03/25/22)
Reports of Azeri forces attacking Armenian cities because Russia has pulled out troops to fight in Ukraine has created a power vacuum and opportunity for renewed fighting in the region.
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Wuhan virus -
Moderna has announced plans to request Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for its pediatric COVID-19 vaccine, citing preliminary data showing the two-dose regimen was safe for children under age 6, including toddlers and infants.
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Economy -
The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage shot significantly higher Friday, rising 24 basis points to 4.95%, according to Mortgage News Daily.
OBSERVATION - The start of the popping of the housing market bubble. Houses too expensive to buy and loans too expensive to get.
Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Jefferies and now, Citigroup are expecting the Fed will boost interest rates by a half a percentage point during each of the next four meetings. And Citi left the door open for even more aggressive steps, such as big rate hikes at every remaining meeting this year.
OBSERVATION - Keep in mind that just a year ago, Fed officials indicated they saw no interest rate increases until at least 2024. Now, investors are bracing for six more rate hikes just this year.
The cost of lithium carbonate — a key ingredient used in the manufacturing of electric vehicle batteries and other low-carbon energy resources such as solar panels — has jumped 95% already in 2022, and is up almost 500% year-over-year.
According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, a leading price reporting agency, battery-grade lithium carbonate (EXW China, ≥99.5% Li2CO3) was averaging a whopping $76,700 a tonne in mid-March. During the same month last year, the metal was trading at $13,400 a tonne.
Benchmark reportedly added that based on reports out of China, things aren’t going to get any easier in the short term due to continued low inventory levels. China is a major producer of the mineral, selling nearly 20% of the world’s supply.
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Invasion of Illegals -
Senator James Lankford (R-OK) warned this week that the Biden administration plans to end Title 42, which enables the Department of Homeland Security to rapidly expel migrants during a public health emergency. The DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis is warning that up to a million migrants camped out at the southern border will attempt to cross within weeks.
Illegal migrants from Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Colombia are being released in the United States by orders from Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Mayorkas. A major release is underway and it is described as humanitarian parole. One exception to this release is single adults from Colombia. They are being expelled via Title 42 at the southern border.
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Biden / Harris watch -
biden - “You’re going to see when you’re there — some of you have been there — you’re going to see women, young people, standing in the middle, in front of a damn tank, saying, ‘I’m not leaving,’”
Latest gaff left the Wh sputtering to “correct” the statement, saying no US forces are going into Ukraine.
OBSERVATION - Russian propaganda promptly jumped on biden’s statement to claim it as proof of US intentions.
More gaffs - Biden mistakenly referred to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin as his secretary of state, also accidentally using Austin’s former military title. Biden made the error while thanking 82nd Airborne Division paratroopers stationed in Rzeszow, Poland, a NATO country, for their service amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine across the border.
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China -
Leaked documents made available today by Australia’s Defense Minister indicate the Solomon Islands recently entered a wide-ranging security pact with China. The agreement, which is currently awaiting approval by the Solomon Islands cabinet, would allow China to deploy armed police and military units to the island nation to protect its citizens and national interests. It also makes Solomon Islands port facilities available for Chinese naval and intelligence ships and opens the door for future permanent basing rights for China. The agreement also contains language which permits the secret deployment of Chinese military forces to the island nation and restricts both governments from discussing any such deployments publicly. The country, whose capital Honiara was rocked by anti-COVID and anti-China rioting during 2021, had signed a similar security pact with Australia just prior to Honiara switching allegiances to Beijing.
OBSERVATION - This will give China a key naval facility in the Pacific.
China’s Communist government is “increasingly involved in developing facilities and other infrastructure near strategic maritime chokepoints such as the Panama Canal and the Strait of Magellan (South America), General Laura Richardson, head of the U.S. Southern Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee on Thursday.
The general, in her written statement, said the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has “abused commercial agreements” in Asia, Africa and the Middle East, using host country ports for military purposes; and “our concern is that they are attempting to do the same right here in this region, close to our homeland.”
Richardson gave an example: “In Panama, PRC-based companies are engaged in or bidding for several projects related to the Panama Canal, a global strategic chokepoint, including port operations on both ends of the canal, water management, and a logistics park.” (CNS)
OBSERVATION - Global shopping control by China should things go sideways.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - On a propaganda level, Russia says objectives of the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine have largely been accomplished. On a practical level, Russian is concentrating its efforts to secure and expand the control over the Domgas region. The thought is that would provide good PR in the homeland protecting the separatists as well as increase its barganing chip in ceasefire talks.
This Russian narrative pivot is significant and being seen on the battlefield.
Stop and further note. This pivot states that Russian is now going to do what they said the war was all about in the first place. This is all for the consumption of the Russian public.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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RUMINT -
Reports of Russia issuing antidote to chemical warfare to soldiers in preparation for chemical attack in Ukraine.
OBSERVATION - The chemical ‘kit’ Ukraine has placed on display, many report is an old version perhaps as old a one end of the cold war (early 90s). If this it the case, the atropine injector may be way past shelf life. If these reports are true, Russian forces may be in as much danger from a Sarin attack as Ukrainian civilians and military. Russia is implicated in the use of Sarin in Syria, so it isn’t out of possibility for use.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu reportedly had a heart attack. However, , his ministry has released a clip of him addressing a meeting of senior generals. Reading from a script, and occasionally slurring his lines, Shoigu talked about the supply of weapons to troops in Ukraine.
Dmitry Medvedev, a former Russian president who is deputy chairman of the country’s security council, said Moscow could strike (nuclear) against an enemy that only used conventional weapons while Vladimir Putin’s defence minster claimed nuclear “readiness” was a priority.
Russian Personnel Issues -
- The Russian private military company Wagner have held talks with the Hezbollah on sending fighters to Ukraine. They reportedly agreed to send 800 Hezbollah fighters to Ukraine for combat operations. 200 should arrive till the end of March - Russian opposition newspaper Novaya Gazeta
- Alexei Sharov, colonel of the 810th Separate Guards Marine Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet, was killed by a Ukrainian sniper, according to Russian authorities.
- Reports of an unspecified Russian Eastern Military District forces establishing a field camp in the Chernobyl region
- US claims they are just now noticing troop movements out of separatist regions of Georgia, they just don’t know where they are headed.
OBSERVATION - My guess to reinforce forces trying to liberate Dombas
- Confirmed Ukraine’s defence ministry says another Russian general, Lt Gen Yakov Rezantsev, was killed in a strike near the southern city of Kherson. Rezantsev was the commander of Russia’s 49th combined army and the initial loss was noted yesterday. A western official said he was the seventh general to die in Ukraine, and the second lieutenant general - the highest rank officer reportedly killed.
Economic Impacts -
- The Biden Administration is set to impose a new round of sanctions, this time going after companies that are part of Russia’s military and intelligence procurement networks
- The UK has sanctioned 65 individuals and entities with supporting links to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including Kronshtadt, a Russian defence company and the main producer of Russia’s Orion drone and other unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru April 4h show a warming trend into the 50’s . Rain is forecast in the upcoming week. Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Kremlin says it will focus on ‘liberation’ of the Donbas region, in a sign it may be looking to end military campaign after weeks of stalemate. I’ve noted for many days the increase of Russian activity in this region. Essentially Russian forces are trying to press southward from Khariv and Izium to link up with Separatist forces moving northward and westward out of the Dombass region. However no significant northward (Separatist )movement has been noted while Russian forces have been struggling to move westward from the far eastern corner of Ukraine.
Mixed bag of action overnight. Ukraine continues to expand its buffer around Kyiv. Ukraine making progress in other parts of the country as well. Russia tries to press forward to isolate Ukrainian controlled Dombas region and close in on defenders in Mariupol.
Kyiv front -
Situation has become VERY fluid.
Attacks are being pressed to retake Hostomel, Bucha and Irpin. These attacks also serve to cut off the southern tip of the Russian salient. Russian forces are stationary and observed to be digging in defensively. Forward place Russian artillery continues to pound residential areas in and around Kyiv.
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Russian forces may have established a nominal encirclement of Chernihiv and were bombarding areas where residents were stuck without electricity, heating and water. Ukraine military claims ongoing Russian efforts to encircle Chernihiv continue to be unsuccessful. Ukrainan forces have pushed Russian back in several sectors around the city. Russian forces are observed to be increasingly digging themselves in defensively.
No advance towards Kyiv, as logistics. manpower shortages prohibit any offensive actions.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Continued Russian efforts to isolate Sumy and Khariv, but sustaining heavy casualties in doing so. Ukrainian forces liberated the towns of Vil’khivka and Malaya Rohan’ just east outside Kharkiv.
Kharkiv and surround communities continue to face heavy bombardment of residential areas.
Ukraine forces are reported to have taken back a portion of Trostyanets, located 59 km (37 mi) east of Sumy. This important in that it controls a crossing of the Boromlya River that Russian forces have been using to bring supplies in from Russia.
Russian efforts to attack southward out of the Khariv area largely stalled. Attacks southward of Izyum gained some ground but facing stiff Ukrainian resistance. Russia utilizing most of its ground attack air power in this region.
Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Things continue desperate in Mariupol with intense street fighting ongoing. Some are likening it to Stalingrad.
Russia is slowly decreasing the area under Ukraine control, but facing difficult street by street, house to house fighting. Russia continued indiscriminate bombing/shelling of civilian areas. Russia has increased the number of naval vessels joining in the bombardment of the city.
OBSERVATION - Russian actions are going well beyond war crimes levels in Mariupol. Sadly those directing the bombing on civilians and forced displacement will never come to trial. Mariupol will not be able to hold out much longer and the presence of Chechen thugs will make life for the survivors a literal hell.
Efforts to fight northward to join southward advances out of Khariv and Izium areas is largely stalled. Fighting is intense along the LOC between Separatists and Ukraine without any significant advances.
Crimea Front -
Russian offensives towards Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia are stalled. It appears that Russia may be pulling back from Kryvyi Rih in response to the Ukrainian offensive towards Kherson.
Unconfirmed reports of as many as 5 BTGs being moved to the Zaporizhzhia region, possibly to stimulate further offensive to the north.
Growing evidence that Ukrainian forces have penetrated into Kherson and that the Russian forces no longer have full control of it. Senior US defense official: Pentagon “can’t corroborate exactly who is in control of Kherson” (southern Ukraine), but “it doesn’t appear to be as solidly in Russian control as it was before”
Ukraine is placing a high priority on the assault. “The Ukrainian Armed Forces will regain control over Kherson today,” said Markiyan Lubkivskyi, an adviser to Ukraine’s Defense Minister. The fog of war over the fight for this city hopefully will clear over the next few days.
US assesses that Russia has 22 ships in Black Sea, 15 of which are surface combatants, per a senior US defense official
Most of the rest are amphibious.
OBSERVATION - Are they miscounting amphibious ships? Counts I’ve seen an been reporting is 9 (prior to the loss of the ‘gator), not 7.
Western Ukraine -
3 - 4 probable cruse missiles hit a communications tower and fuel storage facility outside of Lviv, just hours before biden’s address in Poland.
Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg
OUTLOOK -
Russia lacks the capability to resume offensive operations to encircle, let alone seize Kyiv or Odessa. It is struggling to even contain other significant cities in Eastern Ukraine after over a month of fighting. Accordingly, I expect even more indiscriminate bombing and artillery attacks on residential areas of these cities. Ukrainian forces to continue to push Russian forces away from Kyiv on the northwest, north and eastern areas. Increased potential for Ukraine to encircle Russian forces to the north west of the city. over the course of the next week.
Conditions will continue to degrade in Mariupol and civilian losses are almost incalculable at this stage. Barring something significant, Russia will eventually take the ruins of the city. Loss of Mariupol would cement the Russian ‘land bridge’ between Crimea and Domabas and be a significant bargaining chip in peace talks.
Ukraine is poised to retake Kherson in the nest week. Russian loss of Generals and senior commanders in the area has hamstrung command and control. The Crimea front doesn’t look capable of continuing offensive operations to push into the Dombass region or encircle Odessa.
Potential for an amphibious assault is out of the question for now. I expect increased missile/bombing efforts on Odessa and surrounding cities.
Russia looks to continue to push in the Dombass region and I expect fighting to intensify as now liberating the area is the new announced goal of the Russian war effort.
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Poland -
biden meeting with Polish leadership today.
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Europe / NATO General -
French President Emmanuel Macron says that France, Turkey, Greece will carry out an “exceptional humanitarian operation” “for all those who want to leave” the Ukrainian city of Mariupol, which has faced near total destruction after an unrelenting Russian bombing campaign
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Iran -
Following the Houthi attack on an Aramco facility in Jeddah, pictures of the rebel group’s leaders were projected on Tehran’s iconic Azadi Tower. Some Iranian outlets say this was done to mark the seventh anniversary of the Yemen war.
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Saudi Arabia -
The Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen began a military operation on Saturday to stop attacks on its oil facilities and “protect global energy sources,” Saudi state media reported Attacks focusing on Yemen’s Sanaa and Hodeidah areas.
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Armenia/Azerbaijan -
Twitter vid - Azerbaijani officer states to a Russian commander in the Karabakh region that “the same agreement that Russian President Putin signed” obliges Armenian soldiers to leave the region on the basis of the trilateral agreement.
OBSERVATION - Removal of Russian ‘peace keeping’ forces to Ukraine is destabilizing this region.
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