________________________________
Wuhan virus -
Moderna has announced plans to request Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for its pediatric COVID-19 vaccine, citing preliminary data showing the two-dose regimen was safe for children under age 6, including toddlers and infants.
_____________________________
Economy -
The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage shot significantly higher Friday, rising 24 basis points to 4.95%, according to Mortgage News Daily.
OBSERVATION - The start of the popping of the housing market bubble. Houses too expensive to buy and loans too expensive to get.
Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Jefferies and now, Citigroup are expecting the Fed will boost interest rates by a half a percentage point during each of the next four meetings. And Citi left the door open for even more aggressive steps, such as big rate hikes at every remaining meeting this year.
OBSERVATION - Keep in mind that just a year ago, Fed officials indicated they saw no interest rate increases until at least 2024. Now, investors are bracing for six more rate hikes just this year.
The cost of lithium carbonate — a key ingredient used in the manufacturing of electric vehicle batteries and other low-carbon energy resources such as solar panels — has jumped 95% already in 2022, and is up almost 500% year-over-year.
According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, a leading price reporting agency, battery-grade lithium carbonate (EXW China, ≥99.5% Li2CO3) was averaging a whopping $76,700 a tonne in mid-March. During the same month last year, the metal was trading at $13,400 a tonne.
Benchmark reportedly added that based on reports out of China, things aren’t going to get any easier in the short term due to continued low inventory levels. China is a major producer of the mineral, selling nearly 20% of the world’s supply.
______________________________
Invasion of Illegals -
Senator James Lankford (R-OK) warned this week that the Biden administration plans to end Title 42, which enables the Department of Homeland Security to rapidly expel migrants during a public health emergency. The DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis is warning that up to a million migrants camped out at the southern border will attempt to cross within weeks.
Illegal migrants from Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Colombia are being released in the United States by orders from Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Mayorkas. A major release is underway and it is described as humanitarian parole. One exception to this release is single adults from Colombia. They are being expelled via Title 42 at the southern border.
______________________________
Biden / Harris watch -
biden - “You’re going to see when you’re there — some of you have been there — you’re going to see women, young people, standing in the middle, in front of a damn tank, saying, ‘I’m not leaving,’”
Latest gaff left the Wh sputtering to “correct” the statement, saying no US forces are going into Ukraine.
OBSERVATION - Russian propaganda promptly jumped on biden’s statement to claim it as proof of US intentions.
More gaffs - Biden mistakenly referred to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin as his secretary of state, also accidentally using Austin’s former military title. Biden made the error while thanking 82nd Airborne Division paratroopers stationed in Rzeszow, Poland, a NATO country, for their service amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine across the border.
___________________________
China -
Leaked documents made available today by Australia’s Defense Minister indicate the Solomon Islands recently entered a wide-ranging security pact with China. The agreement, which is currently awaiting approval by the Solomon Islands cabinet, would allow China to deploy armed police and military units to the island nation to protect its citizens and national interests. It also makes Solomon Islands port facilities available for Chinese naval and intelligence ships and opens the door for future permanent basing rights for China. The agreement also contains language which permits the secret deployment of Chinese military forces to the island nation and restricts both governments from discussing any such deployments publicly. The country, whose capital Honiara was rocked by anti-COVID and anti-China rioting during 2021, had signed a similar security pact with Australia just prior to Honiara switching allegiances to Beijing.
OBSERVATION - This will give China a key naval facility in the Pacific.
China’s Communist government is “increasingly involved in developing facilities and other infrastructure near strategic maritime chokepoints such as the Panama Canal and the Strait of Magellan (South America), General Laura Richardson, head of the U.S. Southern Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee on Thursday.
The general, in her written statement, said the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has “abused commercial agreements” in Asia, Africa and the Middle East, using host country ports for military purposes; and “our concern is that they are attempting to do the same right here in this region, close to our homeland.”
Richardson gave an example: “In Panama, PRC-based companies are engaged in or bidding for several projects related to the Panama Canal, a global strategic chokepoint, including port operations on both ends of the canal, water management, and a logistics park.” (CNS)
OBSERVATION - Global shopping control by China should things go sideways.
____________________________________
Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - On a propaganda level, Russia says objectives of the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine have largely been accomplished. On a practical level, Russian is concentrating its efforts to secure and expand the control over the Domgas region. The thought is that would provide good PR in the homeland protecting the separatists as well as increase its barganing chip in ceasefire talks.
This Russian narrative pivot is significant and being seen on the battlefield.
Stop and further note. This pivot states that Russian is now going to do what they said the war was all about in the first place. This is all for the consumption of the Russian public.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
********
RUMINT -
Reports of Russia issuing antidote to chemical warfare to soldiers in preparation for chemical attack in Ukraine.
OBSERVATION - The chemical ‘kit’ Ukraine has placed on display, many report is an old version perhaps as old a one end of the cold war (early 90s). If this it the case, the atropine injector may be way past shelf life. If these reports are true, Russian forces may be in as much danger from a Sarin attack as Ukrainian civilians and military. Russia is implicated in the use of Sarin in Syria, so it isn’t out of possibility for use.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu reportedly had a heart attack. However, , his ministry has released a clip of him addressing a meeting of senior generals. Reading from a script, and occasionally slurring his lines, Shoigu talked about the supply of weapons to troops in Ukraine.
Dmitry Medvedev, a former Russian president who is deputy chairman of the country’s security council, said Moscow could strike (nuclear) against an enemy that only used conventional weapons while Vladimir Putin’s defence minster claimed nuclear “readiness” was a priority.
Russian Personnel Issues -
- The Russian private military company Wagner have held talks with the Hezbollah on sending fighters to Ukraine. They reportedly agreed to send 800 Hezbollah fighters to Ukraine for combat operations. 200 should arrive till the end of March - Russian opposition newspaper Novaya Gazeta
- Alexei Sharov, colonel of the 810th Separate Guards Marine Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet, was killed by a Ukrainian sniper, according to Russian authorities.
- Reports of an unspecified Russian Eastern Military District forces establishing a field camp in the Chernobyl region
- US claims they are just now noticing troop movements out of separatist regions of Georgia, they just don’t know where they are headed.
OBSERVATION - My guess to reinforce forces trying to liberate Dombas
- Confirmed Ukraine’s defence ministry says another Russian general, Lt Gen Yakov Rezantsev, was killed in a strike near the southern city of Kherson. Rezantsev was the commander of Russia’s 49th combined army and the initial loss was noted yesterday. A western official said he was the seventh general to die in Ukraine, and the second lieutenant general - the highest rank officer reportedly killed.
Economic Impacts -
- The Biden Administration is set to impose a new round of sanctions, this time going after companies that are part of Russia’s military and intelligence procurement networks
- The UK has sanctioned 65 individuals and entities with supporting links to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including Kronshtadt, a Russian defence company and the main producer of Russia’s Orion drone and other unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
____________________________________
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru April 4h show a warming trend into the 50’s . Rain is forecast in the upcoming week. Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Kremlin says it will focus on ‘liberation’ of the Donbas region, in a sign it may be looking to end military campaign after weeks of stalemate. I’ve noted for many days the increase of Russian activity in this region. Essentially Russian forces are trying to press southward from Khariv and Izium to link up with Separatist forces moving northward and westward out of the Dombass region. However no significant northward (Separatist )movement has been noted while Russian forces have been struggling to move westward from the far eastern corner of Ukraine.
Mixed bag of action overnight. Ukraine continues to expand its buffer around Kyiv. Ukraine making progress in other parts of the country as well. Russia tries to press forward to isolate Ukrainian controlled Dombas region and close in on defenders in Mariupol.
Kyiv front -
Situation has become VERY fluid.
Attacks are being pressed to retake Hostomel, Bucha and Irpin. These attacks also serve to cut off the southern tip of the Russian salient. Russian forces are stationary and observed to be digging in defensively. Forward place Russian artillery continues to pound residential areas in and around Kyiv.
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Russian forces may have established a nominal encirclement of Chernihiv and were bombarding areas where residents were stuck without electricity, heating and water. Ukraine military claims ongoing Russian efforts to encircle Chernihiv continue to be unsuccessful. Ukrainan forces have pushed Russian back in several sectors around the city. Russian forces are observed to be increasingly digging themselves in defensively.
No advance towards Kyiv, as logistics. manpower shortages prohibit any offensive actions.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Continued Russian efforts to isolate Sumy and Khariv, but sustaining heavy casualties in doing so. Ukrainian forces liberated the towns of Vil’khivka and Malaya Rohan’ just east outside Kharkiv.
Kharkiv and surround communities continue to face heavy bombardment of residential areas.
Ukraine forces are reported to have taken back a portion of Trostyanets, located 59 km (37 mi) east of Sumy. This important in that it controls a crossing of the Boromlya River that Russian forces have been using to bring supplies in from Russia.
Russian efforts to attack southward out of the Khariv area largely stalled. Attacks southward of Izyum gained some ground but facing stiff Ukrainian resistance. Russia utilizing most of its ground attack air power in this region.
Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Things continue desperate in Mariupol with intense street fighting ongoing. Some are likening it to Stalingrad.
Russia is slowly decreasing the area under Ukraine control, but facing difficult street by street, house to house fighting. Russia continued indiscriminate bombing/shelling of civilian areas. Russia has increased the number of naval vessels joining in the bombardment of the city.
OBSERVATION - Russian actions are going well beyond war crimes levels in Mariupol. Sadly those directing the bombing on civilians and forced displacement will never come to trial. Mariupol will not be able to hold out much longer and the presence of Chechen thugs will make life for the survivors a literal hell.
Efforts to fight northward to join southward advances out of Khariv and Izium areas is largely stalled. Fighting is intense along the LOC between Separatists and Ukraine without any significant advances.
Crimea Front -
Russian offensives towards Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia are stalled. It appears that Russia may be pulling back from Kryvyi Rih in response to the Ukrainian offensive towards Kherson.
Unconfirmed reports of as many as 5 BTGs being moved to the Zaporizhzhia region, possibly to stimulate further offensive to the north.
Growing evidence that Ukrainian forces have penetrated into Kherson and that the Russian forces no longer have full control of it. Senior US defense official: Pentagon “can’t corroborate exactly who is in control of Kherson” (southern Ukraine), but “it doesn’t appear to be as solidly in Russian control as it was before”
Ukraine is placing a high priority on the assault. “The Ukrainian Armed Forces will regain control over Kherson today,” said Markiyan Lubkivskyi, an adviser to Ukraine’s Defense Minister. The fog of war over the fight for this city hopefully will clear over the next few days.
US assesses that Russia has 22 ships in Black Sea, 15 of which are surface combatants, per a senior US defense official
Most of the rest are amphibious.
OBSERVATION - Are they miscounting amphibious ships? Counts I’ve seen an been reporting is 9 (prior to the loss of the ‘gator), not 7.
Western Ukraine -
3 - 4 probable cruse missiles hit a communications tower and fuel storage facility outside of Lviv, just hours before biden’s address in Poland.
Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg
OUTLOOK -
Russia lacks the capability to resume offensive operations to encircle, let alone seize Kyiv or Odessa. It is struggling to even contain other significant cities in Eastern Ukraine after over a month of fighting. Accordingly, I expect even more indiscriminate bombing and artillery attacks on residential areas of these cities. Ukrainian forces to continue to push Russian forces away from Kyiv on the northwest, north and eastern areas. Increased potential for Ukraine to encircle Russian forces to the north west of the city. over the course of the next week.
Conditions will continue to degrade in Mariupol and civilian losses are almost incalculable at this stage. Barring something significant, Russia will eventually take the ruins of the city. Loss of Mariupol would cement the Russian ‘land bridge’ between Crimea and Domabas and be a significant bargaining chip in peace talks.
Ukraine is poised to retake Kherson in the nest week. Russian loss of Generals and senior commanders in the area has hamstrung command and control. The Crimea front doesn’t look capable of continuing offensive operations to push into the Dombass region or encircle Odessa.
Potential for an amphibious assault is out of the question for now. I expect increased missile/bombing efforts on Odessa and surrounding cities.
Russia looks to continue to push in the Dombass region and I expect fighting to intensify as now liberating the area is the new announced goal of the Russian war effort.
___________________________________
Poland -
biden meeting with Polish leadership today.
_____________________________________
Europe / NATO General -
French President Emmanuel Macron says that France, Turkey, Greece will carry out an “exceptional humanitarian operation” “for all those who want to leave” the Ukrainian city of Mariupol, which has faced near total destruction after an unrelenting Russian bombing campaign
____________________________________
Iran -
Following the Houthi attack on an Aramco facility in Jeddah, pictures of the rebel group’s leaders were projected on Tehran’s iconic Azadi Tower. Some Iranian outlets say this was done to mark the seventh anniversary of the Yemen war.
__________________________________
Saudi Arabia -
The Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen began a military operation on Saturday to stop attacks on its oil facilities and “protect global energy sources,” Saudi state media reported Attacks focusing on Yemen’s Sanaa and Hodeidah areas.
__________________________________
Armenia/Azerbaijan -
Twitter vid - Azerbaijani officer states to a Russian commander in the Karabakh region that “the same agreement that Russian President Putin signed” obliges Armenian soldiers to leave the region on the basis of the trilateral agreement.
OBSERVATION - Removal of Russian ‘peace keeping’ forces to Ukraine is destabilizing this region.
____________________________________
________________________________
Globalism / Great Reset -
Apple Inc. is working on a subscription service for the iPhone and other hardware products, a move that could make device ownership similar to paying a monthly app fee, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The service would be Apple’s biggest push yet into automatically recurring sales, allowing users to subscribe to hardware for the first time — rather than just digital services. But the project is still in development, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the initiative hasn’t been announced.
OBSERVATION - This is the model that Klaus Schwab and his WEF minions have been promoting for literally everything. “Why own a refrigerator when you could just lease it?”
_____________________________
Wuhan virus -
Biden administration may suggest a second COVID-19 vaccine booster shot for Americans over the age of 50 in the next week, the New York Times reported Friday.
According to the report, the administration will simply “suggest” that older Americans get the second booster shot of the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine instead of “recommending” it like it did in the past for the first booster.
OBSERVATION - Moderating the ‘warning’ probably reflects that the administration has lost its fear mongering traction on the issue, with the citizenry being fed up and ready to move on with their lives. Ukraine also has taken the edge away from this issue.
_____________________________
Biden / Harris watch -
biden managed to make Harris’ visit to Poland look good. After the screw up implying that US forces will be entering Ukraine, biden let an even bigger dumpster fire.
Following what many could consider a good speech, biden went brain dead and off script. Biden ended his speech in Poland with a seeming call for regime change as he declared that “for God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power.
Shortly after Biden’s address however, the White House denied that Biden was calling for regime change.
The President’s point was that Putin cannot be allowed to exercise power over his neighbors or the region. He was not discussing Putin’s power in Russia, or regime change,” a White House official told Fox News Digital shortly after the speech concluded.
White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki previously insisted the White House is “not advocating for killing the leader of a foreign country or regime change.”
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has denied that the United States has any plans to bring about regime change in Russia or anywhere else.
Richard Haass, the Council on Foreign Relations president, tweeted his concerns that Biden had ‘just expanded US war aims, calling for regime change.’ ‘However desirable it may be, it is not within our power to accomplish-plus runs risk it will increase Putin’s inclination to see this as a fight to the finish, raising odds he will reject compromise, escalate, or both,’ wrote Haass.
‘Our interests are to end the war on terms Ukraine can accept & to discourage Russian escalation. Today’s call for regime change is inconsistent with these ends,’ he added.
biden further stirred the pot yesterday by calling Putin a “butcher” causing several European leaders, including France’s Macron to back away from it.
OBSERVATION - biden’s gaff-a-rama displayed to the world the decaying mental facilities of this president. It makes me wonder if the powers that be will accelerate efforts to remove him before he hurts the democrat party further - leaving them with another mental midget to deal with - Harris.
OH AND THERES MORE -
White House officials have repeatedly stated over recent months that the purpose of threatening sanctions against the Russian government as it appeared to be preparing to invade Ukraine was one of “deterrence.”
However, under questioning by reporters in Poland, biden said - “Let’s get something straight,” “You remember, if you’ve covered me from the beginning, I did not say that, in fact, the sanctions would deter him. Sanctions never deter. You keep talking about that.”
___________________________
CW2/Domestic violence -
No significant violence by Antifa at yesterdays’s March for Freedom in Seattle. Antifa had been preparing for weeks to violently stop the march. They are prepared to be arrested & have been sharing the hotline number for the National Lawyer’s Guild, a far-left legal group that helps their violent comrades who are arrested & prosecuted.
OBSERVATION - Antifa threats did succeed to cause one group in the march to drop out participating out of concern for safety of women and children. Antifa turnout OTOH was minimal, not really enough to carry out the violent threats made in the lead up.
___________________________________
Domestic Terror -
An 18-year-old Maine man and two other teens, one in Chicago and another in Kentucky, conspired to attack a Chicago mosque with homemade explosives this month, new court documents reveal - until the FBI unraveled the plot.
_____________________________________
North Korea -
North Korea working on “shortcut” to tunnel at Punggye-ri nuclear test site, apparently aimed at making speedy preparations for a seventh underground nuclear test, according to government sources in South Korea on Sunday- Yonhap
OBSERVATION - This would be their first test in 5 years. With a viable ICBM, NK needs a viable warhead, which is what I suspect they are planning to test, soon.
__________________________________
Japan -
GENERAL NOTE - Watching for the response to a NK nuclear test. Previous tests were believed to have pushed Japan into contemplating their own nuclear program, which could be the start a regional nuclear arms race.
____________________________________
Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia is switching to a defensive posture over most of the territory seized from Ukraine. This is largely due to units no longer being combat effective as well as diverting resources to the effort to seize the greater Dombas region - the “reason” for the invasion in the first place.
Russia is becoming more aggressive in strategic strikes into western Ukraine to disrupt food, fuel, maintenance/repair and resupply lines from Poland.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
********
RUMINT -
Ukraine military is citing Russian propaganda that Russia seeks to end hostilities before May 9th - in recognition of WW2 VE celebrations .
Logistics - ‘
- Reports bordering on RUMINT are that the Russian Army command is failing to reinforce troops in Ukraine with workable tanks and APCs from the storages because optics, electronics, engine parts on the majority of them were stolen.
Russian Personnel Issues -
- Russian units that took heavy casualties near Kyiv may have returned to Belarus to “restore combat capability”. This restoration likely consists of creating new BTGs out of the remnants.
- Wagner Group mercenaries have been identified fighting in the Dombas region, specifically around Izyum
____________________________________
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru April 5th cooling into the 40’s with rain. Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Russia has expanded its ‘deep’ attacks via cruse missiles into Western Ukraine - details below. Ukraine offensive actions around Kyiv and towards Kherson continue to make gains. Fiercer fighting in southeastern Ukraine’s Dombas (Luhansk) Region as Russia switches its ground operation goals to the seizure and control of his area.
Kyiv front -
Situation has become VERY fluid.
Attacks continue to make gains in the effort to retake Hostomel, Bucha and Irpin. Russian forces have dug in but are facing a more tactically mobile Ukraine force. Kyiv was relatively quiet overnight, getting a break from the bombing and artillery of recent.
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Fight over the encirclement of Chernihiv by Russia continues. However, Ukrainan forces have pushed Russian back in several sectors around the city. Russian forces are observed to be increasingly digging themselves in defensively.
No advance towards Kyiv, as logistics. manpower shortages prohibit any offensive actions.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Focus on action has switched to Russian efforts to attack southward out of the Khariv area. Attacks southward of Izyum gained some ground but facing stiff Ukrainian resistance. Russia utilizing most of its ground attack air power in this region.
Wagner Group mercenaries have been identified in the Izyumm area. These forces are considerably better trained and lead than the regular Russian forces and their presence here confirms the switch in Russian priorities.
In the Kharkiv region, Russian forces reportedly used the rocket mining system “Земледелие”. Utilizes rockets to deploy a mine payload at distance.
Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Things continue desperate in Mariupol with intense street fighting ongoing. Some are likening it to Stalingrad.
The Mayor’s office estimated civilian death toll in Mariupol at 20,000. Videos on twitter and elsewhere show large numbers of bodies lying in the street, with combat conditions too dangerous for them to be clear out. Most are unarmed - implying that they are civilians. Hundreds and more believed to be buried under the rubble of residential areas bombed by Russian forces.
Russia is slowly decreasing the area under Ukraine control, but facing difficult street by street, house to house fighting. Russia continued indiscriminate bombing/shelling of civilian areas. Russia has increased the number of naval vessels joining in the bombardment of the city.
Efforts to fight northward out of separatist held areas to join advances out of Khariv and Izium areas is largely stalled. Fighting is intense along the LOC between Separatists and Ukraine without any significant advances. There are unconfirmed reports that offensive actions by Russian Forces in the Luhansk Region has failed with the capture of numerous Russian soldiers and equipment.
Crimea Front -
Russian offensives towards Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia are stalled. It appears that Russia may be pulling back from Kryvyi Rih in response to the Ukrainian offensive towards Kherson.
Ukrainian forces have reportedly retaken towns to the east of Kherson which would start to cut the Russian forces off from their Crimean base. However, it doesn’t appear that Ukraine attained its claim to retake Kherson yesterday.
Reports that Ukraine repulsed an attempt by a small group of Russians marines to land in Odesa region. This was likely an attempt to place special forces to start sabotaging Ukraine coastal defenses and find weakness. Russia currently doesn’t have the capability to launch an amphibious assault anytime soon.
Reports that Russian naval assets have pulled back closer to Crimea, presumably under land based ADA assets following the loss of a ‘gator class landing craft in a captured Ukrainian port. ADA missiles were active over Sebastinapol shooting at what is believed to have been a Ukrainian drone. The loss of the ship as put some fear of losing others to the TB-2 strikes as Russia increasingly is relying on misslies launched from its surface combatants to supplement air launched missiles.
Western Ukraine -
NOTE - I added this section in yesterday’s report as it appears that this region - more than half of the country - is coming under Russian crosshairs.
Yesterday, Russian cruse missiles strikes were aimed at oil refineries and storage locations in western Ukraine today, notably in Dubno and Lviv. Also targeted were food storage and maintenance/repair facilities. A handful of civilians were reported to have been killed.
Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg
OUTLOOK -
Russia lacks the capability to resume offensive operations to encircle, let alone seize Kyiv or Odessa. It appears that Russia has dropped that effort in order to focus its efforts in Eastern Ukraine, where Russia hopes to encircle and defeat Ukrainian forces in the Dombas region. Russian forces elsewhere have switched to defensive operations so that resources can be focused there.
Russian long range missile attack into western Ukraine, and particularly in the vicinity of Lviv will continue and possibly increase as Russia seeks to disrupt resupply efforts to eastern Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces to continue offensive operations to expand its defensive zone around Kyiv and push towards Kherson in the south. Those operations may be reduced depending on the need to send resources into the Domabas region to counter the renewed Russian offensive efforts there.
Conditions will continue to degrade in Mariupol and civilian losses are almost incalculable at this stage. Barring something significant, Russia will eventually take the ruins of the city. Loss of Mariupol would cement the Russian ‘land bridge’ between Crimea and Domabas and be a significant bargaining chip in peace talks.
Russia doesn’t have the capability to conduct amphibious operations against Odessa in the foreseeable future. I expect to see increased missile/bombing efforts on Odessa and surrounding cities.
As as for the past several weeks, Russia will continue to bomb and shell residential areas of cities - large and small - in an effort to demoralize the will of Ukraine and exact a degree of vengeance for its military losses.
___________________________________
Belarus -
Per the Ukrainian MOD, units of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus are conducting combat training activities at five training grounds in the Brest, Minsk, and Grodno regions (within Belarus).
OBSERVATION - These exercises could be similar to those Russia conducted prior to the invasion. They would serve to bring the tactical training status to a higher level, prior to entering the conflict.
______________________________________
Europe / NATO General -
French President Emmanuel Macron said he “would not use those words” after US President Joe Biden called the Russian leader a “butcher” over the war in Ukraine.
____________________________________
Israel -
Israel warns that the ongoing nuclear talks with Iran are not going to achieve the goal of a nuclear free Iran and will destabilize the region even more.
____________________________________
Iran -
Top EU diplomat Josep Borrell said on Saturday Iran and world powers were “very close” to agreement on reviving their 2015 nuclear deal, which would curb Tehran’s nuclear program in exchange for lifting tough sanctions.
__________________________________
Saudi Arabia -
A day after a wave of Huthi drone and missile attacks on Saudi targets, including an oil plant that turned into an inferno near the Formula One race in Jeddah, political leader Mahdi al-Mashat put rebel operations on hold.
“And we are ready to turn this declaration into a final and permanent commitment in the event that Saudi Arabia commits to ending the siege and stopping its raids on Yemen once and for all,” he said.
There was no immediate response from Saudi Arabia, which retaliated to Friday’s attacks by launching air strikes against Sanaa and Hodeida and destroying four explosives-laden boats.
__________________________________
Syria -
The Pro-Assad forces targeted an armored vehicle belonging to the Turkish forces in the Atarib region, west of Aleppo. Dozens of Turkish soldiers were reportedly killed in strike. There were injuries in the attack. Turks struck the government positions with artillery fire as a retaliation. Syrian regime’s attack on Turkish troops, despite the de-escalation agreement, is the biggest in 2 years.
OBSERVATION - Another location where Russia has pulled troops out for Ukraine and things are getting froggy.
__________________________________
Turkey -
Turkey’s presidential spokesman says the international community must still talk to Russia in order to end the war in Ukraine.
“If everybody burns bridges with Russia then who is going to talk to them at the end of the day,” Ibrahim Kalin told the Doha international forum.
______________________________________
Armenia/Azerbaijan -
Head of the Armenian NKR forces in the Karabakh region, Arayik Harutyunyan signed a decree on the introduction of martial law. Escalation ongoing in the Caucasus region. This apparently was in response to killed and wounded among Karabakh Armenians as Azerbaijan launched an “offensive.”
“In violation of the provisions of the trilateral statement, the Azerbaijani military entered the Russian peacekeeper zone of responsibility on March 24 and 25. They also carried out 4 strikes against armed formations in Nagorno-Karabakh by Bayraktar TB-2.” - Russian Ministry of Defense
OBSERVATION - I was going to drop this region off my watch list, until all this started happening last week. The sucking sound of Russian forces being pulled out for Ukraine appears to be replaced by the rushing sound of Azeri forces looking to take more land.
____________________________________
