Wuhan virus -
White House chief medical adviser Dr. Anthony Fauci on Sunday warned about the potential for the reinstatement of COVID-19 restrictions in the U.S. In an interview on the BBC’s “Sunday Morning,” Fauci said U.S. residents “need to be prepared for the possibility” of restrictions being put back into place.
OBSERVATION - Continued wuhan maneuvering under the cover of the Ukraine war.
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Economy -
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 19.2% annual gain in January, up from 18.9% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 17.5%, up from 17.1% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 19.1% year-over-year gain, up from 18.6% in the previous month.
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said the contract rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage shot to 4.8% in the week ended March 25 from 4.5% a week earlier. That was the largest one-week increase since February 2011, and it brought mortgage rates to their highest level since December 2018.
Inflation will mean the average U.S. household has to spend an extra $5,200 this year ($433 per month) compared to last year for the same consumption basket, according estimates by Bloomberg Economics.
OBSERVATIONS - Forecast for housing looks pretty rough as we move into spring/summer prime selling season. Many home ‘flippers’ may soon find themselves heavily in debt with property they can’t sell at the inflated prices they seek.
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Invasion of Illegals -
In preparation for a possible post-Title 42 border rush, the Department of Homeland Security has enlisted Federal Emergency Management Administration (FEMA) officials to help prepare for as many as 18,000 migrants per day. That volume would be nearly three times the current pace of arrivals.
Just six months into fiscal year 2022, which began in October, border agents will log at least 1 million encounters with illegal aliens at the U.S.-Mexico border. Number doesn’t include “got aways”
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -
200 U.S. Marines have landed in Lithuania. 10 x USMC F-18 jet fighters also sent to region amid Russia tensions
NOTE - These are not the previously reported EW aircraft.
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North/South Korea -
South Korea on Tuesday dismissed North Korea’s claim to have launched a newly developed intercontinental ballistic missile last week, accusing the country of firing a less-powerful existing weapon and fabricating data following an earlier failed launch.
North Korea said it launched a Hwasong-17 missile, its longest-range developmental ICBM, last Thursday in its biggest weapons test in years. Its state media called the launch “a historical event” and released a stylized Hollywood-style video showing leader Kim Jong Un, in sunglasses and leather jacket, supervising the launch.
South Korea’s Defense Ministry said Tuesday it has determined that what North Korea fired wasn’t a Hwasong-17 but a Hwasong-15, another ICBM that it successfully tested in 2017. The Defense Ministry said it told a parliamentary committee that details of Thursday’s launch — such as the missile’s speed, combustion and stage separation — were similar to those of the Hwasong-15, not the Hwasong-17. The ministry report to the committee also suggested that the North Korean video wasn’t shot on the actual launch date, citing an analysis of Kim’s shadow and weather conditions seen in the video.
South Korea said it conducted its first successful launch of a solid-fuel rocket Wednesday in what it called a major step toward acquiring a space surveillance capability amid rising animosities with rival North Korea.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia is switching to a defensive posture over most of the territory seized from Ukraine. This redeployment is more likely readjustment of forces to consolidate into more defendable positions and protect their supply lines. Combat ineffective units also being pulled out to Belarus to rearm, reform and reequip.
Russia is becoming more aggressive in strategic strikes into western Ukraine to disrupt food, fuel, maintenance/repair and resupply lines from Poland.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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US State Department says Russia may ‘single out and detain’ American nationals who are in Russia
Peace talks in Turkey brought no break throughs yesterday.
The Russian Foreign Ministry says that the US and their allies have started a “massive cyber-operation” against Russia and warns of “severe consequences” for those involved
Given the scale of the accusations, the risk of Russia using this as a pretext to carry out a major cyber-attack of its own on Ukraine or Western countries is concerning. Joe Biden warned of a Russian cyberattack on the US recently as well.
OBSERVATION - This may be the laying of the groundwork for a long warned about Russian cyber attacks on the west. See Logistics below
RUMINT -
There are rumors of persistent tension between Putin and the MOD (Ministry of Defense), stemming from Putin’s mistrust in MOD leadership.
Logistics -
- A cyber attack has destroyed data of Rosaviatsia, RussianFederal Air Transport Agency. 65 TB of files, aircraft registration data & mail were deleted from servers. There is no backup - Russian Ministry of Finance has not allocated funds for it. @AnonOpsSE claims responsibility
Russian Personnel Issues -
- The whole command of the Russian 331st Guards Airborne Regiment is KIA in Poland. The commander, Colonel Sukharev was killed March 18. Now the chief of staff Lt Colonel Igor Sukharev with several staff officers is confirmed killed. This unit was responsible of Ilovaisk massacre in 2014.
- The Ukrainian Armed Forces announced on Tuesday that Colonel Denis Kurilo, the commander of the Russian 200th separate motorized rifle brigade, was killed outside Kharkiv.
OBSERVATION - Continued heavy losses in senior leadership will further hamstring Russian combat efforts. Senior leadership cannot be easily replaced.
Economic Impacts -
- The ruble is staging a comeback that could soon see it making up all of the losses it suffered in the weeks after Russia invaded of Ukraine, although it has some way to go yet. The currency has strengthened in 13 of the past 14 trading sessions in Moscow, paring most of the 33% decline.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru April 5th cooling into the 40’s with rain. Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .
RUMINT -
Supposedly Russian defectors are depicted are now fighting for Ukraine and receiving training on NATO systems such as the NLAW.
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
UN refugee agency says more than 4 million refugees have now fled Ukraine since Russia launched its invasion of the country last month.
No positive progress from peace talks being conducted in Turkey. Ukraine President Zelenskyy says his military isn’t prepared to take a step back or slacken its defenses, in spite of word that Russia plans to ease up in its assault on capital city Kyiv. “We can say the signals we are receiving from the talks are positive but they do not drown out the explosions of Russian shells,” he said, adding that Ukraine could only trust a concrete result from peace talks.
Russia’s promise to scale down military operations around Kyiv and northern Ukraine does not represent a ceasefire and talks on a formal agreement with Kyiv have a long way to go, Moscow’s lead negotiator in peace talks said on Tuesday..
Much of Ukraine felt the heaviest artillery and bombing in a while. Strong explosions in Kyiv, Kharkiv and Khmelnytskyi (Western Ukraine Air Base in Starokostyantyniv reportedly hit with Kalibr cruise missiles)
Intelligence suggests that in part the artillery is serving to cover Russian troop movements. Analysts also indicate the the Russian are not using their declared pseudo-ceasefire to actually withdraw but to reposition forces into more defensible positions. Some of the hardest hit units in the Kyiv attacks are reported to have ben pulled back to Belarus for rest, refit and reassignment. Surviving equipment pulled out have been reported to have been loaded on trains.
It is highly likely that Russia will seek to divert combat power from the north to their offensive in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in the east.
Ukraine reached across and hit targets in Russia proper overnight, striking an ammunition depot near Belgorod. Explosions caused by the attack totaled the depot. Russian media acknowledged Tuesday that two border villages had to be evacuated because of shelling from Ukraine. The shelling forced evacuations of Zhuravlyovka and nearby Niekhoteyevka to the Russian town of Belgorod, displacing about 180 people.
However, Russian Ministry of Emergencies deny rumors about evacuation of civil population of Belgorod region. Authorities in Kursk region of Russia in attempt to calm population deny explosions, airstrikes and presence of saboteur groups in the region.
Increased Russian use of artillery /rocket deployed anti personnel mines is being noted to deter Ukrainian assaults on Russian forces. Many of these are new models, having a seismic and proximity trigger as well as a delayed self demolition feature.
Kyiv front -
Situation has become VERY fluid.
Heavy MLRS and artillery shelling in the Kyiv Oblast overnight.
Some Russian troops are moving towards Belarus. Large numbers of BMDs with Russian and VDV flags were spotted on their way from the Ukrainian border to Belarus’ Rechitsa and Gomel where they were loaded onto railway platforms. Clashes in Irpin district: Irpin, Bucha, Hostomiel, Vorzel, Kyiv-Zhytomyr highway have continued.
Russian forces have kicked up radioactive dust and disturbed a highly toxic zone around the area of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster site known as the “Red Forest” since capturing the defunct power plant early on in its invasion of Ukraine, workers at the site said.
Reuters spoke with workers who said Russian soldiers in a convoy did not use anti-radiation gear and inhaled toxic dust that will most likely cause internal radiation in their bodies. In the weeks after Russia took the site on Feb. 24, soldiers were still not wearing any protective gear, they said.
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Russian forces have reportedly pulled back across the Snov river east of Chernihiv in an effort to consolidate their positions. City was hit with additional heavy artillery/bombing overnight. The governor of Ukraine’s Chernihiv region says there is no let-up in attacks by Russia, despite its pledge to reduce military activity there.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Fierce fighting in the effort to cut off the Dombas region. Russian forces have made very little progress against Ukrainian defensive operations.
Ukrainian forces, including the Georgian National Legion, liberated a town called Rudnyts’ke, about 60 km east of Kyiv, pushing the line about 15 km farther to the east.
The defeat of the 4th GTA at Trostyanets this week cost the Russian army most of its most modern T-80 tanks.
Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Mariupol is close to falling to Russian forces who’ve managed to essentially cut the pocket in half. The following link provides a visual of the situation.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FO9xF3gXIAAAgud?format=jpg&name=small
French presidency says no Mariupol humanitarian mission possible “at this stage”.
70 people from Mariupol maternity hospital no. 2, including medical personnel and patients, have been forcibly deported to Russia, local authorities said. More than 20k Mariupol residents were forcibly deported earlier to filtration camps in Russia, their Ukrainian IDs seized.
Putin says artillery/bombing will stop upon the surrender of the city.
Efforts to fight northward to join advances out of Khariv and Izium areas are largely stalled. Fighting is intense along the LOC between Separatists and Ukraine with some Russian advances into Ukrainian cites along the LOC . Russian redoubled attacks in the Luhansk Region with a lot of air strikes. Russian forces made very little progress though. Luhansk authorities say there have been 35 artillery attacks on local towns in 24 hours
Crimea Front -
Russian offensives towards Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia are stopped and unable to support cutting off Dombas region.
Ukrainian forces continue to press on to Kherson . Russian combat engineers have been observed rigging the Antonov Bridge north of Kherson with explosives.
No amphibious operations against Odessa region appear to be possible in the near and long term.
Western Ukraine -
Air Base in Starokostyantyniv reportedly hit with Kalibr cruise missiles overnight. Ukraine claims to have shot several down.
Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg
OUTLOOK -
UK MoD update- Highly likely Russia will look to refocus combat power to their offensive in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions.
“Russian units suffering heavy losses have been forced to return to Belarus and Russia to reorganize and resupply.” Such activity is placing further pressure on Russia’s already strained logistics and demonstrates the difficulties Russia is having reorganizing its units in forward areas within Ukraine.
The Institute for the Study of War says Russian forces have given up on seizing Kyiv but that they continue to fight to hold their current position near the city. Russia is also directing some reserves in an effort to gain ground that will link Kharkiv with its front line in Luhansk. And it says Mariupol is likely to fall within days.
I concur with the UK assessments above and want to include the additional notes that Russian will continue to increase attacks on POL, and military facilities / airports in Western Ukraine with continued heavy artillery/bombing of cities in eastern Ukraine.
The mechanics of redeploying forces to support the attack in Dombas will not be an easy task. The Russians can’t simply “reposition” their forces around Kyiv & throw them into the Eastern front. That would takes weeks to logistically move them, refit, rearm, fix broken vehicles, replace wounded soldiers. It will also burden the already chaotic logistical system. The Russian scale down military operations around Kyiv and northern Ukraine may be an attempt to mitigate that logistical impact.
Another factor is the mental state and morale of those redeploying troops. Persistent repots of desertions and self wounding point to a mentally defeated force. Replacements are assessed to be just as poorly trained and prepared as the initial forces.
Replacement equipment is of questionable quality, with reports of key systems having been removed some time when it was in storage. Maintenance issues have been one cause of high vehicle losses so far.
Longer term outlook suggests that Russia will use remaining forces in the north to ‘hold’ Ukrainian forces in place and prevent their redeployment to the south. Consolidated efforts to capture Dombas will be Russia’s primary objective. This readjustment may solve much of the resource competition seen over the past month. Concentration of effort may result in more success. If Russia can “liberate’ the Dombas region,and break out of what would be a pyrrhic victory.
To prevent confusion, the Dombas region consist of two Ukrainian provinces (Oblast) - Donstsk and Luhansk Oblass. The following link show the pre war situation and control by separatists.
If Russia can accomplish the “liberation” of the region, along with the securing of a ‘land bridge to Crimea, they could establish some conditions to end the war.
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Europe / NATO General -
The Finnish President reportedly spoke with the NATO Secretary General on Monday in regards to the “principles and procedures involved” in NATOs acceptance of new members. This comes after the former Finnish PM said he believed the country would soon apply for NATO membership.
Denmark says it would very strongly support Finland’s NATO accession
Norway’s defence ministry says it has donated an additional 2,000 m72 anti-tank weapons to Ukraine - Reuters
Europe bracing for potential cuts in gas and oil imports from Russian after refusing to pay in rubles.
Denmark says it will send a battalion of 800 troops to the Baltic States if NATO requests it.
Belgium, Ireland, the Netherlands & the Czech Republic have today expelled a total of 43 Russian diplomats over alleged spying activities, taking to more than 100 the number of Russian officials to be kicked out of European nations this month
GENERAL OBSERVATIONS - Russia’s efforts to split NATO and cause the eastern European nations to be abandoned has epically failed. The nations have largely done just the opposite. Plus Finland and Sweden’s push not to join NATO has expanded its presence on its border.
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Israel -
Following the recent terror attacks in Be’er Sheva and Hadera, and advance of the Muslim holidays, which will coincide with the Jewish Passover and the Christian Easter, Israel Police was anticipating a surge of violent clashes. The police said that they are expecting up to 35 days of possible violence, and incidents 3 times the magnitude of those that occurred last year, with dozens of hot spots throughout the country and possible missile fire from Gaza.
A shooting in Bnei Brak, central Israel, has left 5 dead. Reportedly, three terrorists were involved in the shooting. 1 was killed, 1 was arrested, and another is possibly at large
Recent series of attacks in Israel:
- 22 March: Knife and vehicle attack in Beersheba, 4 killed. Claimed by ISIS.
- 27 March: Shooting in Hadera, 2 police officers killed, 6 injured. Claimed by ISIS.
- 29 March: Shooting spree in Bnei Brak, , at least 5 killed. Some saying Al-Aqsa Martyr’s Brigade have claimed responsibility for this attack, currently there is no claim across any of their official media.
- 29 March: Initial reports of a stabbing attempt in Jerusalem’s Mahne Yehuda market
OBSERVATION - More violence of this manner, don’t anticipate any significant supporting rocket attacks from Gaza.
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Saudi Arabia -
Arab Coalition announces stopping military operations in Yemen to create the appropriate conditions for the success of the #GCC-sponsored peace talks and to create a positive environment during Ramadan. Unilateral ceasefire - Houthis have not agreed to it.
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Syria -
Closing the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits to Russian warships poses a logistical problem for Russia in Syria. Normally, supplies would be loaded in Black Sea ports and shipped to Syria. Now Russia has to depend more on airlift - competing with the Ukraine war for this resource.
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Armenia/Azerbaijan -
Russia’s Defense Ministry on Saturday accused Azerbaijani troops of entering a village under the jurisdiction of Russian peacekeepers in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, setting up an surveillance post, and conducting drone strikes against local Armenian forces.
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“ Russian forces have kicked up radioactive dust and disturbed a highly toxic zone around the area of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster site known as the “Red Forest” since capturing the defunct power plant early on in its invasion of Ukraine, workers at the site said.
Reuters spoke with workers who said Russian soldiers in a convoy did not use anti-radiation gear and inhaled toxic dust that will most likely cause internal radiation in their bodies. In the weeks after Russia took the site on Feb. 24, soldiers were still not wearing any protective gear, they said.“
Cancer is no joke. I wouldn’t wish it on anyone.
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Globalism / Great Reset -
Senator John Boozman (R-AR) criticized the Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) budget proposal, saying that it prioritizes climate change over food production. Boozman pointed out that “climate” appeared over 100 times in the budget plan, adding that the Biden administration plans to raise taxes on ranchers and farmers to fund climate projects.
OBSERVATION- The agenda is more important than eating.
World Government Summit in Dubai began this week. The Summit is a global, neutral, non-profit organization dedicated to shaping the future of governments. The Summit, in its various activities, explores the agenda of the next generation of governments, focusing on harnessing innovation and technology to solve universal challenges facing humanity. The Summit will bring thought leaders, global experts and decision makers from around the globe to discuss how best to implement the New World Order after the Great Reset.
This year’s theme - ‘Shaping Future Governments’. The very first order of business on the agenda was preparing for the New World Order.
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Wuhan virus -
UK gov’t reverses ‘no jab, no job’ policy, doesn’t say if unvaxxed workers will be rehired. The ‘no jab, no job’ mandate for home care workers was revoked last week, but it remains unclear if those ousted from their positions will get their jobs back.
Collusion between the CDC and teacher’s unions has been uncovered where the unions essentially directed changes to CDC policy regarding shutdown of schools which resulted in thousands of schools across the country remaining closed throughout the 2020-2021 school year.
OBSERVATION - Remember, it’s not about the disease, its all about power.
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Economy -
Biden is preparing to order the release of up to 1 million barrels of oil per day from the nation’s strategic petroleum reserve, according to two people familiar with the decision, in a bid to control energy prices that have spiked as the U.S. and allies have imposed steep sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. The duration of the release hasn’t been finalized but could last for several months.
OBSERVATION - If the duration lasts for 6 months that would be about 180 million barrels. 1he SPR will be down below 400 million barrels. That’s nearly half of the SPR’s maximum capacity of 727 million barrels. And we’re already at the lowest level seen since 2003. That would stip a considerable buffer of oil supplies away in the event of a REAL emergency. This is a waste just to try to saved the democrat’s bacon in November.
BTW - When oil prices were low, Trump directed purchases to place oil in the reserve, to replace losses from previous administrations who dipped into to it for political reasons.
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Invasion of Illegals -
Border chief Alejandro Mayorkas and his progressive deputies are warning Americans to expect a huge inflow of economic migrants if the Title 42 border barrier is dropped.
“Homeland security officials on Tuesday described contingency plans for managing as many as 18,000 encounters a day at the border, regardless of the cause,” reported the New York Times. That inflow would add up to more than 500,000 people a month — or more migrants than American births in a month.
OBSERVATION - This will become a disaster of biblical proportions. Border states may take extreme measures to stop the flow. AZ has indicated that they may even send armed NG to the border. TX likely the same (beyond what they are doing). Half million a month - that will potentially add millions in just a few months - remember this doesn’t include the ‘get aways’.
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POLITICAL FRONT -
Florida Republican lawmakers have met to discuss the repeal of Disney World’s self-governing arrangement following the company’s criticism of the state’s new Parental Rights in Education law.
Disney World was given control over operations such as law enforcement and fire protection in an arrangement that was created to attract the theme park to the state in 1967.
“Yesterday was the 2nd meeting in a week w/fellow legislators to discuss a repeal of the 1967 Reedy Creek Improvement Act, which allows Disney to act as its own government,” State Rep. Spencer Roach, R, tweeted Wednesday morning. “If Disney wants to embrace woke ideology, it seems fitting that they should be regulated by Orange County.”
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -
A rotational US Marine force of approximately 2,200 soldiers will be based in the Northern Territory through September. 1,000 Marines have already arrived in Darwin, where they will train with the Australian Defense Force (ADF) to ensure preparedness for potential conflict/crises in the region.
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North/South Korea -
Joint South Korean and US military drills set to kick off next month could for the first time in years include more weaponry and troops, and more aggressive messaging as tensions with North Korea rise.
Neither the South Korean or US militaries have confirmed what this year’s annual drills may entail, but a recent series of unusual displays of military might in and around the Korean peninsula suggest a more muscular show could be in the works, analysts said.
OBSERVATION - More aggressive and expanded military exercises is one of the points the new SK govt as announced it was planning to do - a reversal from less pronounced exercises to placate NK threats.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia is switching to a defensive posture over most of the territory seized from Ukraine as an Economy of Force effort. This redeployment is more likely readjustment of forces to consolidate into more defendable positions and protect their supply lines. Combat ineffective units also being pulled out to Belarus to rearm, reform and reequip.
Russia is becoming more aggressive in strategic strikes into western Ukraine to disrupt food, fuel, maintenance/repair and resupply lines from Poland.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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The US intel community concludes that Putin was unaware that the military had been using and losing conscripts in Ukraine. Reportedly, there are tensions between Putin and his Minister of Defense Shoigu. Putin’s senior advisers “too afraid to tell him the truth” about Ukraine, US official confirms-based on newly declassified US intelligence “Putin is being misinformed by his advisors about how badly the Russia|n military is performing & how the Russian economy is being crippled”
(Reuters) - Russian hackers have recently attempted to penetrate the networks of NATO and the militaries of some eastern European countries, Google’s Threat Analysis Group said in a report published on Wednesday.
Google Tracking cyber activity in Eastern Europe as TAG has observed COLDRIVER campaigns targeting the military of multiple Eastern European countries, as well as a NATO Centre of Excellence via Russia linked group
RUMINT -
Big RUMINT. *Major* plot twist to the story about Russian aircraft violating Swedish airspace a few weeks back.
There are unconfirmed reports that of the 4 Russian Aircraft that breached Swedish airspace over the Baltic Sea on March 2nd, 2 were carrying multiple Tactical Nuclear Weapons while on Patrol, the Swedish Public is reportedly furious about the Claims.
OBSERVATION - Russia has been trying to intimidate the Swedes during the current Ukraine crisis to say out of the support for Ukraine as well as stay away from NATO. But being locked and loaded with tactical nukes on planes that ‘accidentally’ entered Swedish airspace sounds a bit far fetched. The ‘accident ‘ was no accident - the entry was deliberate. But carrying nukes ? ? ? ?
Logistics -
- Something many don’t realize about Russian logistics. The Russian army operates with fewer support soldiers than other militaries. About 150 of the 700 to 900 troops in a BTG could be considered support, and because this formation would be an arm of a larger force in the area, they expect help from other logistics units. The standard BTG only carries enough fuel for two days of combat.
- A huge column of Russian tanks with the “V” sign was seen in Homiel (aka Gomel), moving towards the Russian border. It is possible that the equipment is being transferred from the Kyiv direction through Belarus to Donbas.
Russian Personnel Issues -
- Pentagon says Russia has repositioned less than 20 percent of troops it had around Kyiv, some going to Belarus but non seen going to their home garrisons.
- Follow up from yesterday’s note on radioactive contamination of Russian soldiers (See yesterday’s Ukraine - Kyiv front). 7 busses with Russian soldiers suffering from Acute Radiation Syndrome have arrived to a hospital in Belarus from the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone in Ukraine. They allegedly dug trenches in the highly radioactive Red Forest - UNIAN News Agency.
OBSERVATION - This probably only the tip of the iceberg considering the fight that occurred in the area.
- RUMINT Level information, about 300 soldiers (mostly ethnic Ossetians) from the Russian military base have reportedly returned to South Ossetia of their own free will, because they thought they had been left for dead during a special operation in Ukraine. The former president of South Ossetia called not to draw hasty conclusions and not to accuse the guys of desertion, but to carefully investigate the situation when soldiers are sent to combat operations without full outfit and stocks of weapons, warm clothing and protective equipment. Returned soldiers allegedly hitchhiked home.
OBSERVATION - Outlandish? Possibly, however it does fit the pretty well established narrative of poor morale, poor equipment and poor preparation of Russian military and in particular, non-ethnic Russian units.
Economic Impacts -
- Russia has through linking the ruble to gold and deals with India and China is poised to threaten the Petro Dollar as the basis of exchange on the global market. At least is has broken the ice to permit oil purchases in other currencies.
- Russia is allowing Germany to pay for oil/gas in Euros rather than Rubles.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru April 5th cooling into the 40’s with rain. Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Ukrainian counter offensives seem to be successful so far within the last three days in both the NE and the South within Ukraine. Russian forces can be seen losing controlled areas in both locations. Some details are listed below.
Over the last few days Russia shelled and destroyed oil depots in Lviv, Lutsk, Khmelnytsk region and now Dnipropetrovsk region
Russia continues to strike residential areas with artillery and bomb/missiles.
Kyiv front -
Situation has become VERY fluid.
Russian and Ukrainian forces do not appear to have conducted significant operations northwest of Kyiv in the last 24 hours.
U.S Defense and Intelligence Officials have announced that they have seen indication today that Russian Forces Guarding the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine has begun to withdraw across the Belarusian Border, this seems to be part of the Russian redeployment to the east. See note above under Russia - Russian Personnel Issues regarding contaminated Russian soldiers.
Kyiv authorities reported on March 30 that Ukrainian forces fully control Makariv and parts of Borodyanka. Fighting has been ongoing in Irpin and Hostomel over the past 24 hours, but Ukrainian forces did not secure additional territory.
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Russian forces did not conduct any major operations along the Chernihiv and Sumy axis in the past 24 hours. Russian shelling increased following the Russian claim on March 29 that Russian forces would reduce operations against Chernihiv.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Fierce fighting in the effort to cut off the Dombas region. Russian forces have made very little progress against Ukrainian defensive operations.
Elements of the 20th Combined Arms Army and 1st Guards Tank Army are believed to be redeploying to support Russian operations on Izyum, but are unlikely to take the city in the near future.
Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Mariupol is close to falling to Russian forces who’ve managed to essentially cut the pocket in half. The Mariupol city council said thousands of residents — including more than 70 staff members and patients at a maternity hospital — are being taken to Russia against their will, a war crime under the Geneva Conventions. Social media users depicted ongoing Russian use of thermobaric munitions in Mariupol and widespread damage to the city
The following UPDATED link provides a visual of the situation.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FO9xF3gXIAAAgud?format=jpg&name=small
Also below is a link to a figure produced by the BBC (from UK MoD sources) depicting how the fight for Mariupol developed over the past few weeks.
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experience/cps/624/cpsprodpb/vivo/live/images/2022/3/31/1505d92e-6e32-475a-8840-50cf54862b29.png
Russia has declared a one-day ceasefire in the heavily-bombed port city, but there is scepticism if it will hold - up to 170,000 people remain trapped. Ukraine’s government is sending dozens of buses to Mariupol, in a fresh effort to evacuate people and deliver humanitarian aid. The International Committee of the Red Cross says it is ready to lead the operation on Friday if all parties agree to exact terms
Efforts to fight northward to join advances out of Khariv and Izium areas remain stalled. Ukrainian forces continued to repel Russian assaults throughout Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts in the last 24 hours. Ukrainian counterattack in Zaporizhia Oblast continues, villages of Zatyshshya, Vesele, Zelenyi Hai & Chervone were all reported as recaptured by Ukrainian paratroopers & Territorial Defense.
Crimea Front -
Russian offensives towards Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia are stopped and unable to support cutting off Dombas region.
Ukrainian army has pushed back the Russian forces in the Kryvyi Rih salient, regaining controlled Zahradivka, Kochubeivka and Orlove in Kherson region
No amphibious operations against Odessa region appear to be possible in the near and long term.
Western Ukraine -
No significant missile strikes overnight.
Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg
OUTLOOK -
Russia is essentially developing an Economy of Force operation in the north, northeast and south (apart from Dombas separatist regions). Russia is setting its forces in place to continue to pose a threat, abet minor, to Ukrainian territory in an effort to hold Ukrainian forces in place and limit reinforcement of troops in southeast Ukraine.
Mariupol continues to be a massive disaster for civilians trapped by fighting. The loss of life will likely be far higher than estimates. Russia’s humanitarian ‘cease fire’ is viewed with skepticism given how they’ve violated other humanitarian corridors already. The city will likely fall completely within a week. Fighting for the city has cost Russia a lot in men and material and securing it will tie down forces they may want for the main fight in SE Ukraine.
Evidence of only a few Russian units being pulled back into either Belarus or Russia. Those pulled back are likely those mauled by fighting, needing refit and reorganization. US only estimates about 20% have been relocated/redeployed. Shifting substantial forces to the southeast area will require a lot of logistical effort.
Unconfirmed reports that replacement forces are even more poorly trained and equipped than the original assault forces continue to bubble up. Desertions and refusals to fight popping up on numerous independent web sources. Also, armored and other vehicles Russian has sent to the region also reported to be in very poor condition, barely combat capable.
Trust issues between Putin and his generals is not helping the war effort.
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Poland -
Poland, which was the 2nd largest importer of Russian coal in the EU behind Germany, said it cannot wait any longer for an EU-level decision, acknowledging that the ban “may be legally questionable”. According to government spokesperson Piotr Müller, the decision was taken for national security reasons.
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Europe / NATO General -
NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg: “According to our intelligence, Russian units are not withdrawing, but repositioning. Russia is trying to regroup, resupply & reinforce its offensive in the Donbas region. At the same time, Russia maintains pressure on Kyiv and other cities”
Big shift in Sweden’s Nato debate - prime minister is no longer ruling out applying for membership
Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere says he’s asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to urgently pull his troops out of Ukraine and allow humanitarian access. The two men had a hour-long conversation earlier, according to a Norwegian statement cited by the Reuters news agency.
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Israel -
Unrest growing as another attack on Israeli civilians was carried out yesterrday. Initial reports of a stabbing near the West Bank settlement of Neve Daniel in the Gush Etzion area. The assailant has been subdued, and one person is hurt, medics say. In response, Gantz orders deployment of 1,000 soldiers to reinforce police after terror attacks. Gantz vows to ‘flood the streets’ with thousands of reservists if needed.
IDF forces entered the Jenin refugee camp in a rare daylight operation to capture leaders organizing the attacks. Heavy gunfire was reported. The raid came after a man from a nearby village killed five people in Israel. Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades released a statement claiming their fighters are engaged in a firefight with IDF forces in Jenin
The Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ ) announced the general readiness and mobilization of their military brigade Saraya Al-Quds in all formations/areas. Secretary-General of the Islamic Jihad Movement, Commander Ziad Al-Nakhala: “In light of the storming of Jenin camp by the Zionist enemy army, we announce the general alertness of the Al-Quds Brigades in all their locations”. Abu Hamza, spokesman of the Al-Quds Brigades: “Based on the decision of the Secretary-General, the Mujahid leader Ziyad Al-Nakhala; We announce the full readiness of our fighters in all military formations.”
Hamas issued a statement in support of these West Bank terrorist groups, calling for the upcoming month of Ramadan, to be a month of jihad, and martyrdom.
IDF announces operation “Breakwater” aimed at curbing the string of terror attacks in Israel and the West Bank. Overnight, 31 suspects were arrested, the military says.
OBSERVATION - Palestinian violence is escalating and Israel is escalating with it. Not sure if this could trigger another intifada or not. Ramadan overlaps with Passover this year and that could be one component. The other may well be a power play against the PA which has called for calm. Remember, elections are on the horizon for the West Bank and Hamas-favored elements are posing a significant challenge to the current West Bank leadership. Nothing like a good old intifada to stir up support.
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