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Globalism / Great Reset -
Senator John Boozman (R-AR) criticized the Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) budget proposal, saying that it prioritizes climate change over food production. Boozman pointed out that “climate” appeared over 100 times in the budget plan, adding that the Biden administration plans to raise taxes on ranchers and farmers to fund climate projects.
OBSERVATION- The agenda is more important than eating.
World Government Summit in Dubai began this week. The Summit is a global, neutral, non-profit organization dedicated to shaping the future of governments. The Summit, in its various activities, explores the agenda of the next generation of governments, focusing on harnessing innovation and technology to solve universal challenges facing humanity. The Summit will bring thought leaders, global experts and decision makers from around the globe to discuss how best to implement the New World Order after the Great Reset.
This year’s theme - ‘Shaping Future Governments’. The very first order of business on the agenda was preparing for the New World Order.
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Wuhan virus -
UK gov’t reverses ‘no jab, no job’ policy, doesn’t say if unvaxxed workers will be rehired. The ‘no jab, no job’ mandate for home care workers was revoked last week, but it remains unclear if those ousted from their positions will get their jobs back.
Collusion between the CDC and teacher’s unions has been uncovered where the unions essentially directed changes to CDC policy regarding shutdown of schools which resulted in thousands of schools across the country remaining closed throughout the 2020-2021 school year.
OBSERVATION - Remember, it’s not about the disease, its all about power.
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Economy -
Biden is preparing to order the release of up to 1 million barrels of oil per day from the nation’s strategic petroleum reserve, according to two people familiar with the decision, in a bid to control energy prices that have spiked as the U.S. and allies have imposed steep sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. The duration of the release hasn’t been finalized but could last for several months.
OBSERVATION - If the duration lasts for 6 months that would be about 180 million barrels. 1he SPR will be down below 400 million barrels. That’s nearly half of the SPR’s maximum capacity of 727 million barrels. And we’re already at the lowest level seen since 2003. That would stip a considerable buffer of oil supplies away in the event of a REAL emergency. This is a waste just to try to saved the democrat’s bacon in November.
BTW - When oil prices were low, Trump directed purchases to place oil in the reserve, to replace losses from previous administrations who dipped into to it for political reasons.
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Invasion of Illegals -
Border chief Alejandro Mayorkas and his progressive deputies are warning Americans to expect a huge inflow of economic migrants if the Title 42 border barrier is dropped.
“Homeland security officials on Tuesday described contingency plans for managing as many as 18,000 encounters a day at the border, regardless of the cause,” reported the New York Times. That inflow would add up to more than 500,000 people a month — or more migrants than American births in a month.
OBSERVATION - This will become a disaster of biblical proportions. Border states may take extreme measures to stop the flow. AZ has indicated that they may even send armed NG to the border. TX likely the same (beyond what they are doing). Half million a month - that will potentially add millions in just a few months - remember this doesn’t include the ‘get aways’.
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POLITICAL FRONT -
Florida Republican lawmakers have met to discuss the repeal of Disney World’s self-governing arrangement following the company’s criticism of the state’s new Parental Rights in Education law.
Disney World was given control over operations such as law enforcement and fire protection in an arrangement that was created to attract the theme park to the state in 1967.
“Yesterday was the 2nd meeting in a week w/fellow legislators to discuss a repeal of the 1967 Reedy Creek Improvement Act, which allows Disney to act as its own government,” State Rep. Spencer Roach, R, tweeted Wednesday morning. “If Disney wants to embrace woke ideology, it seems fitting that they should be regulated by Orange County.”
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -
A rotational US Marine force of approximately 2,200 soldiers will be based in the Northern Territory through September. 1,000 Marines have already arrived in Darwin, where they will train with the Australian Defense Force (ADF) to ensure preparedness for potential conflict/crises in the region.
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North/South Korea -
Joint South Korean and US military drills set to kick off next month could for the first time in years include more weaponry and troops, and more aggressive messaging as tensions with North Korea rise.
Neither the South Korean or US militaries have confirmed what this year’s annual drills may entail, but a recent series of unusual displays of military might in and around the Korean peninsula suggest a more muscular show could be in the works, analysts said.
OBSERVATION - More aggressive and expanded military exercises is one of the points the new SK govt as announced it was planning to do - a reversal from less pronounced exercises to placate NK threats.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia is switching to a defensive posture over most of the territory seized from Ukraine as an Economy of Force effort. This redeployment is more likely readjustment of forces to consolidate into more defendable positions and protect their supply lines. Combat ineffective units also being pulled out to Belarus to rearm, reform and reequip.
Russia is becoming more aggressive in strategic strikes into western Ukraine to disrupt food, fuel, maintenance/repair and resupply lines from Poland.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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The US intel community concludes that Putin was unaware that the military had been using and losing conscripts in Ukraine. Reportedly, there are tensions between Putin and his Minister of Defense Shoigu. Putin’s senior advisers “too afraid to tell him the truth” about Ukraine, US official confirms-based on newly declassified US intelligence “Putin is being misinformed by his advisors about how badly the Russia|n military is performing & how the Russian economy is being crippled”
(Reuters) - Russian hackers have recently attempted to penetrate the networks of NATO and the militaries of some eastern European countries, Google’s Threat Analysis Group said in a report published on Wednesday.
Google Tracking cyber activity in Eastern Europe as TAG has observed COLDRIVER campaigns targeting the military of multiple Eastern European countries, as well as a NATO Centre of Excellence via Russia linked group
RUMINT -
Big RUMINT. *Major* plot twist to the story about Russian aircraft violating Swedish airspace a few weeks back.
There are unconfirmed reports that of the 4 Russian Aircraft that breached Swedish airspace over the Baltic Sea on March 2nd, 2 were carrying multiple Tactical Nuclear Weapons while on Patrol, the Swedish Public is reportedly furious about the Claims.
OBSERVATION - Russia has been trying to intimidate the Swedes during the current Ukraine crisis to say out of the support for Ukraine as well as stay away from NATO. But being locked and loaded with tactical nukes on planes that ‘accidentally’ entered Swedish airspace sounds a bit far fetched. The ‘accident ‘ was no accident - the entry was deliberate. But carrying nukes ? ? ? ?
Logistics -
- Something many don’t realize about Russian logistics. The Russian army operates with fewer support soldiers than other militaries. About 150 of the 700 to 900 troops in a BTG could be considered support, and because this formation would be an arm of a larger force in the area, they expect help from other logistics units. The standard BTG only carries enough fuel for two days of combat.
- A huge column of Russian tanks with the “V” sign was seen in Homiel (aka Gomel), moving towards the Russian border. It is possible that the equipment is being transferred from the Kyiv direction through Belarus to Donbas.
Russian Personnel Issues -
- Pentagon says Russia has repositioned less than 20 percent of troops it had around Kyiv, some going to Belarus but non seen going to their home garrisons.
- Follow up from yesterday’s note on radioactive contamination of Russian soldiers (See yesterday’s Ukraine - Kyiv front). 7 busses with Russian soldiers suffering from Acute Radiation Syndrome have arrived to a hospital in Belarus from the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone in Ukraine. They allegedly dug trenches in the highly radioactive Red Forest - UNIAN News Agency.
OBSERVATION - This probably only the tip of the iceberg considering the fight that occurred in the area.
- RUMINT Level information, about 300 soldiers (mostly ethnic Ossetians) from the Russian military base have reportedly returned to South Ossetia of their own free will, because they thought they had been left for dead during a special operation in Ukraine. The former president of South Ossetia called not to draw hasty conclusions and not to accuse the guys of desertion, but to carefully investigate the situation when soldiers are sent to combat operations without full outfit and stocks of weapons, warm clothing and protective equipment. Returned soldiers allegedly hitchhiked home.
OBSERVATION - Outlandish? Possibly, however it does fit the pretty well established narrative of poor morale, poor equipment and poor preparation of Russian military and in particular, non-ethnic Russian units.
Economic Impacts -
- Russia has through linking the ruble to gold and deals with India and China is poised to threaten the Petro Dollar as the basis of exchange on the global market. At least is has broken the ice to permit oil purchases in other currencies.
- Russia is allowing Germany to pay for oil/gas in Euros rather than Rubles.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru April 5th cooling into the 40’s with rain. Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Ukrainian counter offensives seem to be successful so far within the last three days in both the NE and the South within Ukraine. Russian forces can be seen losing controlled areas in both locations. Some details are listed below.
Over the last few days Russia shelled and destroyed oil depots in Lviv, Lutsk, Khmelnytsk region and now Dnipropetrovsk region
Russia continues to strike residential areas with artillery and bomb/missiles.
Kyiv front -
Situation has become VERY fluid.
Russian and Ukrainian forces do not appear to have conducted significant operations northwest of Kyiv in the last 24 hours.
U.S Defense and Intelligence Officials have announced that they have seen indication today that Russian Forces Guarding the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine has begun to withdraw across the Belarusian Border, this seems to be part of the Russian redeployment to the east. See note above under Russia - Russian Personnel Issues regarding contaminated Russian soldiers.
Kyiv authorities reported on March 30 that Ukrainian forces fully control Makariv and parts of Borodyanka. Fighting has been ongoing in Irpin and Hostomel over the past 24 hours, but Ukrainian forces did not secure additional territory.
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Russian forces did not conduct any major operations along the Chernihiv and Sumy axis in the past 24 hours. Russian shelling increased following the Russian claim on March 29 that Russian forces would reduce operations against Chernihiv.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Fierce fighting in the effort to cut off the Dombas region. Russian forces have made very little progress against Ukrainian defensive operations.
Elements of the 20th Combined Arms Army and 1st Guards Tank Army are believed to be redeploying to support Russian operations on Izyum, but are unlikely to take the city in the near future.
Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Mariupol is close to falling to Russian forces who’ve managed to essentially cut the pocket in half. The Mariupol city council said thousands of residents — including more than 70 staff members and patients at a maternity hospital — are being taken to Russia against their will, a war crime under the Geneva Conventions. Social media users depicted ongoing Russian use of thermobaric munitions in Mariupol and widespread damage to the city
The following UPDATED link provides a visual of the situation.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FO9xF3gXIAAAgud?format=jpg&name=small
Also below is a link to a figure produced by the BBC (from UK MoD sources) depicting how the fight for Mariupol developed over the past few weeks.
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experience/cps/624/cpsprodpb/vivo/live/images/2022/3/31/1505d92e-6e32-475a-8840-50cf54862b29.png
Russia has declared a one-day ceasefire in the heavily-bombed port city, but there is scepticism if it will hold - up to 170,000 people remain trapped. Ukraine’s government is sending dozens of buses to Mariupol, in a fresh effort to evacuate people and deliver humanitarian aid. The International Committee of the Red Cross says it is ready to lead the operation on Friday if all parties agree to exact terms
Efforts to fight northward to join advances out of Khariv and Izium areas remain stalled. Ukrainian forces continued to repel Russian assaults throughout Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts in the last 24 hours. Ukrainian counterattack in Zaporizhia Oblast continues, villages of Zatyshshya, Vesele, Zelenyi Hai & Chervone were all reported as recaptured by Ukrainian paratroopers & Territorial Defense.
Crimea Front -
Russian offensives towards Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia are stopped and unable to support cutting off Dombas region.
Ukrainian army has pushed back the Russian forces in the Kryvyi Rih salient, regaining controlled Zahradivka, Kochubeivka and Orlove in Kherson region
No amphibious operations against Odessa region appear to be possible in the near and long term.
Western Ukraine -
No significant missile strikes overnight.
Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg
OUTLOOK -
Russia is essentially developing an Economy of Force operation in the north, northeast and south (apart from Dombas separatist regions). Russia is setting its forces in place to continue to pose a threat, abet minor, to Ukrainian territory in an effort to hold Ukrainian forces in place and limit reinforcement of troops in southeast Ukraine.
Mariupol continues to be a massive disaster for civilians trapped by fighting. The loss of life will likely be far higher than estimates. Russia’s humanitarian ‘cease fire’ is viewed with skepticism given how they’ve violated other humanitarian corridors already. The city will likely fall completely within a week. Fighting for the city has cost Russia a lot in men and material and securing it will tie down forces they may want for the main fight in SE Ukraine.
Evidence of only a few Russian units being pulled back into either Belarus or Russia. Those pulled back are likely those mauled by fighting, needing refit and reorganization. US only estimates about 20% have been relocated/redeployed. Shifting substantial forces to the southeast area will require a lot of logistical effort.
Unconfirmed reports that replacement forces are even more poorly trained and equipped than the original assault forces continue to bubble up. Desertions and refusals to fight popping up on numerous independent web sources. Also, armored and other vehicles Russian has sent to the region also reported to be in very poor condition, barely combat capable.
Trust issues between Putin and his generals is not helping the war effort.
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Poland -
Poland, which was the 2nd largest importer of Russian coal in the EU behind Germany, said it cannot wait any longer for an EU-level decision, acknowledging that the ban “may be legally questionable”. According to government spokesperson Piotr Müller, the decision was taken for national security reasons.
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Europe / NATO General -
NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg: “According to our intelligence, Russian units are not withdrawing, but repositioning. Russia is trying to regroup, resupply & reinforce its offensive in the Donbas region. At the same time, Russia maintains pressure on Kyiv and other cities”
Big shift in Sweden’s Nato debate - prime minister is no longer ruling out applying for membership
Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere says he’s asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to urgently pull his troops out of Ukraine and allow humanitarian access. The two men had a hour-long conversation earlier, according to a Norwegian statement cited by the Reuters news agency.
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Israel -
Unrest growing as another attack on Israeli civilians was carried out yesterrday. Initial reports of a stabbing near the West Bank settlement of Neve Daniel in the Gush Etzion area. The assailant has been subdued, and one person is hurt, medics say. In response, Gantz orders deployment of 1,000 soldiers to reinforce police after terror attacks. Gantz vows to ‘flood the streets’ with thousands of reservists if needed.
IDF forces entered the Jenin refugee camp in a rare daylight operation to capture leaders organizing the attacks. Heavy gunfire was reported. The raid came after a man from a nearby village killed five people in Israel. Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades released a statement claiming their fighters are engaged in a firefight with IDF forces in Jenin
The Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ ) announced the general readiness and mobilization of their military brigade Saraya Al-Quds in all formations/areas. Secretary-General of the Islamic Jihad Movement, Commander Ziad Al-Nakhala: “In light of the storming of Jenin camp by the Zionist enemy army, we announce the general alertness of the Al-Quds Brigades in all their locations”. Abu Hamza, spokesman of the Al-Quds Brigades: “Based on the decision of the Secretary-General, the Mujahid leader Ziyad Al-Nakhala; We announce the full readiness of our fighters in all military formations.”
Hamas issued a statement in support of these West Bank terrorist groups, calling for the upcoming month of Ramadan, to be a month of jihad, and martyrdom.
IDF announces operation “Breakwater” aimed at curbing the string of terror attacks in Israel and the West Bank. Overnight, 31 suspects were arrested, the military says.
OBSERVATION - Palestinian violence is escalating and Israel is escalating with it. Not sure if this could trigger another intifada or not. Ramadan overlaps with Passover this year and that could be one component. The other may well be a power play against the PA which has called for calm. Remember, elections are on the horizon for the West Bank and Hamas-favored elements are posing a significant challenge to the current West Bank leadership. Nothing like a good old intifada to stir up support.
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Holy cow people, I certainly hope the information I’m dealing with isn’t April fools! Seems like more an more on the plate every morning. Now for the weekly heat index.
Temperature Gauge - Threat Trending Code Color Key
BLACK - An area worth noting, but not immediately impacting on US safety
BLUE - Incidents increasing and needing further monitoring, low threat to the US
YELLOW - This is the moderate concern level. Definitely becoming a threat but in the longer term.
ORANGE - A definite threat in both short term and long term. Some active events occurring
RED - Active and ongoing. Examples of this would be 2020 rioting, etc.
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Globalism / Great Reset - YELLOW trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Ukraine war has allowed GGR to operate towards the ‘reset’ without much news coverage. GGR evaluating global impacts to food supplies and economies for exploitation to the globalist cause. GGR cadre, are heaping food scarcity on top of the supply chain crisis, fuel crisis, and violent crime epidemics they’ve already brought us. Exploitation and creation of crisis - in order to get the people to turn to the global ‘saviors’ as the price of lost liberty and freedom.
BlackRock Inc. President Rob Kapito told an audience in Austin, Texas, that an entire younger generation is quickly finding out what it means to suffer from shortages, according to Bloomberg.
“For the first time, this generation is going to go into a store and not be able to get what they want,” Kapito said.
“And we have a very entitled generation that has never had to sacrifice.”
OBSERVATION - GGR will use this ‘suffering’ to pivot as saviors of the world, solving the ‘crisis’
Global digital currency enroute - From ongoing WEF meeting this week.
Economist at World Government Summit says new financial world order about to shift in dramatic new direction. Dr. Pippa Malmgrem, a top American economist who served as a special adviser to former President George W. Bush, made a statement that confirms everything myself and others have been reporting for quite some time – that a cashless society is looming right around the corner.
“We are on the brink of a dramatic change where we are about to, and I’ll say this boldly, we are about to abandon the traditional system of money and accounting and introduce a new one. And the new one; the new accounting is what we call blockchain… It means digital, it means having an almost perfect record of every single transaction that happens in the economy, which will give us far greater clarity over what’s going on.”
This new money system Malmgren talks about with such enthusiasm will not only be digital, it will be centralized and it will be programmable. Do not confuse it with Bitcoin or other crypto currencies. The only thing it will share in common with other crypto is that it will be based on blockchain technology.
So what is meant mean by “programmable” money?
This means the central banks will have complete control over your money and will be able to program it so that it can only be spent on certain things or in certain places. For example, have you purchased too many guns or too much ammunition over the past month? Maybe you indulged in too much frivolous travel and blew through too much gasoline? The government could easily have your money reprogrammed to limit future purchases of such taboo items.
OBSERVATION - Outgrowth of the social credit system. Got to break the current system first in order to replace it with this.
World Health Organization is proposing a new pandemic treaty they’re hoping will be accepted by enough member countries to become a reality by 2024. The pandemic treaty is a direct threat to a nation’s sovereignty to make decisions for itself and its citizens.
AGAIN - Moving under the radar due to Ukraine. Global control, where some globalist wonk tells America what it has to do, while exempting a ‘favored’ nation something else.
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Wuhan virus - YELLOW *last updated 12-10-21*
DISCUSSION - News largely overwhelmed by Ukraine reporting. Some rules are being silently locked in while other mandates are being removed/suspended. The distraction of war is allowing the remnants of mandates to be hidden for later use - as needed.
Dr. Peter Marks, the head of the FDA office responsible for vaccine safety, indicated the U.S. might need to offer fourth shots for people under 50-years-old in the fall. People who are now eligible for fourth shots would likely get a fifth shot if there’s evidence that would be beneficial, Marks told reporters on a conference call.
“It would not be surprising if there is a potential need for people to get an additional booster in the fall along with a more general booster campaign if that takes place,” Marks said. “It may be that a decision is made that rather than the vaccines we currently have, which are called vaccines against the prototype virus, that we will move to a vaccine that is either against one of the variants or something else.”
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Economy - RED * Updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - Inflation continues to be the prime source of concern for the US and the rest of the world.
A key inflation metric monitored by the Federal Reserve soared 6.4 percent in February compared to a a year ago, reaching a new 40-year high. The latest price surge, which effected the price of fuel, groceries and other consumer essentials, represents the largest year-over-year increase since January 1982, according to data released by the Commerce Department on Thursday.
Not taking into account food and energy fluctuations, which tend to be more erratic and can overemphasize inflation, the personal consumption expenditures price index, the preferred inflation gauge of the Federal Reserve, jumped 5.4 percent in February from a year prior. Including gas and groceries, PCE surged 6.4 percent.
Biden announces the largest release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in U.S. history. One million barrels / day for the next 6 months. That will bring the reserves to 50% capacity, the lowest since the 1980’s. All as a political tool to try to lower gasoline prices.
OBSERVATION - This administration is dedicated to destroying the petroleum industry, started form day one. Draining the petroleum reserve is another step that will leave the US increasingly vulnerable to an even greater energy crisis and in the minds of biden’s handlers provide leverage to force a ‘green’ agenda on the country. Think I’m blowing smoke - see the following
On Thursday’s broadcast of MSNBC’s “All In,” Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm stated that many hoped “we would be focusing solely on clean energy solutions, renewable, making that transition,” but the war in Ukraine has thrown a wrench into that and said that “we have got to use this reason to become energy independent with clean energy.”
biden has announced he was invoking the Defense Production Act to help increase the building of batteries for electric vehicles in the United States.
(Reuters) - A key part of the yield curve inverted on Thursday, according to Tradeweb data, as the two-year U.S. Treasury note yield rose above the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield.
That part of the yield curve inverted on Tuesday for the first time since September 2019.
An inversion of the two-year, 10-year part of the curve is viewed by many as a signal a recession is likely to follow in one to two years.
OBSERVATION - Some economists are projecting a recession by the end of the year, and not the 1-2 year frame listed above.
New data from the Census Department released last week reveal that the average cost of a new home hit a record high in February at $511,000. Now, the Federal Reserve is warning about a housing bubble.
OBSERVATION - Worrying about a bubble now, over priced demand meets unaffordable loans. . . . .
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Invasion of Illegals - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Illegals continue to push across the border with record numbers of intercepts
Over the past four years, the number of counterfeit pills containing fentanyl that have been seized by US law enforcement jumped by 4,850%, according to a new study, underscoring how an alarming surge in the deadly drug is putting people at increasing risk for accidental overdose.
The study by a consortium of academic researchers, led by New York University, was released on Thursday. Using a first-of-its-kind, real-time analysis of federal data, it found that more than 2m fake pills were seized by officials in the last quarter of 2021 alone – up from 42,000 in the first quarter of 2018. Researchers also found that the number of individual seizures involving fentanyl pills increased by 834%.
The authors say this reflects the huge supply of these pills, which criminal drug networks manufacture to look like legitimate pharmaceutical tablets such as Percocet, Xanax, and Adderall, being imported into the US and sold on the streets.
OBSERVATION - Not just illegals, human trafficking and other crime, but the flood of drugs is flowing over the entire country. Here in the Redoubt, land near Canada, fentanyl from Mexico has created a huge increase in deaths and overdoses. Its not just a border state problem.
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Biden/Harris watch - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Mental facilities continue to degrade. Harris’ mental capabilities are also questionable.
Harris appears to be incapable of putting an intelligent statement together. Following her word salads in Poland now after meeting with Jamaican delegation she swings and hits it over the fence again.
“We also recognize just as it has been in the United States, for Jamaica, one of the issues that has been presented as an issue that is economic in the way of its impact has been the pandemic,” Harris said. “So to that end, we are announcing today also that we will assist Jamaica in COVID recovery by assisting in terms of the recovery efforts in Jamaica that have been essential to, I believe, what is necessary to strengthen not only the issue of public health but also the economy.”
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CW2/Domestic violence - YELLOW trending upward *updated 03/25/22*
DISCUSSION - BLM/Antifa showing increasing trends to respond with violence to political activities (marches, meetings, etc) on the right. Increase early calls to show up armed and willing to kill. Increased first aid and riot training. Rampant crime continues with it migrating into affluent areas.
A federal jury’s $14 million award to Denver protesters hit with pepper balls and a bag filled with lead during 2020 demonstrations over the police killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis could resonate nationwide as courts weigh more than two dozen similar lawsuits.
The jury found police used excessive force against protesters, violating their constitutional rights, and ordered the city of Denver to pay 12 who sued.
Nationwide, there are at least 29 pending lawsuits challenging law enforcement use of force during the 2020 protests, according to a search of the University of Michigan’s Civil Rights Litigation Clearinghouse. -
OBSERVATION - This verdict, if left to stand, may well further the tying of law enforcements hands in future riots. Liberal/progressive cities will likely cite it as reinforcement to arguments to stand down police. We’ve seen how similar city actions have turned Portland and Seattle into hell holes and have only served to increase crime and violence.
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CANCEL CULTURE FRONT - YELLOW *updated 01-28-22*
Continued high tech censoring of conservative views.
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POLITICAL FRONT - YELLOW and increasing *updated 01-28-22*
Democrats reaching panic mode over polls for the midterms.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments - ORANGE (UPDATED 01/21/2022) *status raised*
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is extending the deployment of the Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group, its escorts and Carrier Air Wing 1 as a hedge against Russian aggression in Europe, two defense officials confirmed to USNI News on Thursday.
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Cyber Warfare - YELLOW
Continued warnings of Russian cyber attacks against US power and financial networks.
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China - ORANGE trending neutral to upward
Congo has threatened to review what it calls unfair and possibly corrupt contracts, particularly in the mining sector. And now Congo is doing it. On February 28 Congolese court took control of Congo’s Tenke Fungurume mine away from China Molybdenum corporation. According to court allegations, China Molybdenum has failed to pay millions of dollars in royalty payments on copper and cobalt ore. The court appointed a temporary administrator from Gecamines, Congo’s state-run mining authority.
OBSERVATION - Normally, this works in reverse, where China takes control of an industry upon default by the country.
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India/China - BLUE MOVING TOWARDS YELLOW *updated 120421*
Russia has told India that is won’t be able to help it in the event that China attacks in the LOC if India stops buying Russian oil. Same goes for India participating in any of the other sanctions nations has placed on Russia.
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North/South Korea - ORANGE tending upward (UPDATED 03-25-22)
Lower rainfall over the last six months means much lower wheat and barley will be harvested in Korea. South Korea and the U.S. monitor North Korean agriculture via multispectral satellites, and the drought in both Koreas is so bad that brown fields that should be green this time of year mean hunger in the north and more grain imports in the south. South Korea can better deal with drought but cannot avoid some losses. The crop disaster is worse in the north because of continuing fertilizer shortages because of problems at the main fertilizer plant.
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Japan - BLUE trending upward (updated 03-25-22
Japan has officially stated after negotiation between the two Countries since the end of WW2 recently entirely collapsed that the entire Kuril Island Chain is Japanese Sovereign Territory and is being Illegally occupied by Russian Forces.
OBSERVATION - Next question is will Japan take steps to physically regain those islands while Russia is occupied with Ukraine?
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Russia - RED * updated 02-18-22*
DISCUSSION - INCREASED WARNING ONGOING -
WAR WATCH - This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT -Russia declared a ‘pause’ in its operations in order to redeploy forces, primarily to get more forces to capture the Dombas region. This was suppose to consist of local withdrawals and consolidations with removal of some of the hardest hit units. This is not working out well for Russia as will be described in greater details in this and the Ukraine sections.
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On Thursday, the State Security Committee of South Ossetia spread a message about the provocations by individual citizens of Georgia and Georgian socio-political organizations against the law enforcement officers and military personnel of the Republic of South Ossetia and the Russian Federation.
The KGB of the Republic of South Ossetia responsibly declares that any attempts by the Georgian radical, pro-Western and extremist forces to exert any force on the Russian and South Ossetian military personnel will be regarded as international sabotage and terrorist activities, with all the ensuing consequences for its perpetrators
OBSERVATION - Removal of Russian occupation forces for the Ukraine fight has created an opportunity for countries to push back on Russian controls.
RUMINT -
Continued distrust between Putin and his military leadership.
Reinforcements -
- Up to 2,000 Russian soldiers being moved from Georgia to Ukraine due to ‘unexpected losses’ on the battlefield: UK
- Putin ordering draft of 135,000. Russia does a biannual draft in the fall and spring, and the announcement today is standard. Not to mention, the guys who will get conscripted won’t arrive at their units and be trained for months. This may free up other troops for deployment to Ukraine.
- The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 31 that 200 “mercenaries from the Middle East,” likely Syrian troops, arrived at the Gomel military airfield in Belarus on March 29
Economic Hits -
- Russia will halt gas supplies to buyers from ‘unfriendly’ states unless they switch to payments in rubles from April 1, President Vladimir Putin says bloomberg
- Russia has instituted many work arounds to imposed sanctions, forcing the west to reevaluate their moves and eliminate loopholes Russia is exploiting.
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Ukraine - RED *updated 02-18-22* - The battle for Kyiv and Ukraine has entered its second month.
WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru April 10th show warm with increasing rain/showers. Conditions likely to keep off road operations unfavorable.
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
This has been wild 24 hour period. It appears that the Russian ‘redeployments’ and troop consolidations have locally turned into a rout. Ukrainian forces maintained pressure on these relocating and withdrawing forces and have apparently made huge gains as Russian flee to Belarus and Russia, even abandoning equipment and in some instances, troops behind. Ukraine forces continue to attack the withdrawing forces, causing even more chaos for the repeating Russians.
Overnight, two Ukrainian attack helicopters struck an oil facility in Belgorod, across the border inside Russia. This was a nighttime attack! Belgorod is about 75km from the front lines. 8 reservoirs with fuel on fire at oil depot were reported to be on fire. This is the second attack in the Belgorod area, follows the attack on an ammo storage area. Russian citizens in the Belgorod area are up in arms according to social media posts, over the strike.
OBSERVATION - These strikes will complicate Russian plans by forcing them to divert ADA assets from the battlefield to defend what they thought were ‘safe’ areas. The Ukraine success in these attacks may well spur similar attacks on other Russian cities.
There massive lines at gas stations in the Belgorod Region of Western Russia are being reported following the the oil depot attack. Russian citizens in the area fear of more Ukrainian strikes as some people beginning to panic and stock up on essential goods.
Pending further confirmation, Ukraine restored control over the settlements of Demydiv, Dymer, Lytvynivka, Havrylivka, Kozarovychi, Zhovtneve, Hlybivka, Yasnohorodka, Talakun, Sukholuchcha, Lypivka, Gavronshchyna, Makovyshche, Mykolaivka, Khmilna, Kyiv region. After the enemy withdrew, Ukraine took control of the settlements of Rudnya, Shevchenkove, Bobryk, Stara Basan, Nova Basan, Makeyevka, Pogreby, Bazhanivka, Volodymyrivka, Shnyakivka, Salne, Sofiyivka, and Gavrylivka.
And the list continues to grow this morning.
Kyiv front -
A number of reports this morning that the Russians have pulled back from NW of Kyiv, all the way to Belarus. The pull back has been reportedly been unorganized and chaotic. Reportedly (pending confirmation) Russian forces around Kyiv are retreating en masse, leaving behind wrecked armor and possibly trapped pockets of troops as the Ukrainian army advances. Ukrainian Ground Forces Command claim they’ve counted “almost 700 units of equipment withdrawing towards Ivankov, towards the Belarusian border.
Some key areas retaken include Chernobyl nuclear power plant, and the Hostomel airport. The links below depict the a couple of assessment of the extent of Ukrainian successes and the poor shape Russia finds itself. Please note, these figures also cover actions in the Northern Front and North Easter Front.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPQXL-vX0BknOk5?format=jpg&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPQcEXZaAAEZeAS?format=jpg&name=large
(this second figure - blue circles represents Ukraine recaptures of last 24 hours, yellow last 48 hours)
Again, pending further confirmation, the Russian withdrawal/redeployment in this sector may well be turning into a rout. Russians are giving up ground in three days that it took them over 5 weeks to gain.
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Russian withdrawals have opened up full access to Chernihv. Ukrainian forces have moved in to secure the zone. See links above.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Ukrainan forces have essentially routed Russian elements along the old Konotop and Suma axises. See links above
The Nova Bassn pocket has been taken by Ukraine.
Russian and Ukraine forces still are clashing in the vicinity of the town of Izyum (Izium). Unconfirmed reports that Russia has finally taken control of the city. However, very little Russian progress in the area otherwise.
Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Conditions in Mariupol continue to be desperate with bombing killing hundreds of civilians. Evidence that some elements of Russian forces have penetrated to the center of the city. Russia violated its own ceasefire to allow civilians to leave and even blocked buses coming in to assist in the removal.
Russian air force continues an increased tempo to support Russian ground attacks, however, Ukraine forces still able to repulse those attacks or limit Russian advances.
Lisichansk, Luhansk oblast, a Ukrainian oil tank farm was hit. Facility reported not operating for several years.
Russia is still prioritizing this area for reinforcements and seizure.
Crimea Front -
Ukranian forces continue to press their attack towards Kherson. Novovorontsovka, Kherson Oblast, reportedly retaken by Ukrainian forces
Russian withdrawal/repositioning appears to be more orderly in this region versus the northern areas. However, Ukrainian pressure makes it difficult for the Russians.
Russian amphibious operations against the Odessa region are off the table for now.
Western Ukraine -
No significant attacks to note.
Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg
OUTLOOK -
If these reports of a Russian rout in the north fall true, their goal of reconstituting these forces for reinsertion into the Dombas fight becomes even more problematic. The events of the last 48 hours indicate that not only has the threat to Kyiv dissapated, but that Russia has given up on trying to take it at all.
The forces withdrawing from the Northern were composed primarily of CAAs brought in from the Far East Command. There will be serious command and control issues between them and the western MD’s fighting in the Dombas - just from not having worked together. That probably won’t stop Russia from trying to integrate them in anyway. Growing evidence that Russian forces have abandoned a lot of equipment (tanks etc) in this withdrawal will put additional pressure on logistics to reequip these forces.
The successful strike on the Belgorod sites will encourage Ukraine to identify and attack other targets in Russia. Again, this will force a strategic rethinking of Russia operations and stretch their forces even thinner to protect those vulnerable targets.
Russian forces will continue to close the loop in Mariupol. Their continued refusal of humanitarian aid and evacuation is nothing but a war crime and desire to punish the citizens. Defenders may not have much more than a week left. However, their defense continues to tie down and attrit Russian forces that could be shifted into the attack to seize the greater Dombas.
I expect more rocket/bomb and artillery attack of Ukrainian cities in the southeast and rest of the country - more of the same.
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Belarus - RED *updated 01-02-28*
DISCUSSION - Managing to keep its forces in country and not commit to ground combat in Ukraine.
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Poland - ORANGE trending upward *updated 3-18-22*
DISCUSSION - Poland could well be within Russian crosshairs for its operation in resupplying Ukrainian forces.
Continued Ukraine resupply hub for humanitarian and military supplies to Ukraine.
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Europe / NATO General - ORANGE *updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - Increasing potential that NATO will become involved in an Ukraine invasion as Poland, Romania and the Baltic Nations respond.
Britain and its allies have agreed to send air and coastal defence systems, longer-range artillery and counter battery capabilities, armored vehicles as well as provide wider training and logistical support to Ukraine, British defence minister Ben Wallace said
More discussions from NATO about supplying anti-ship systems
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Israel - ORANGE trending upward *updated 04-01-22*
DISCUSSION - Several terror attacks by West Bank Palestinians has caused tensions to skyrocket over the past week. Israel could face attacks from both the West Bank and Gaza is things escalate with the approach of Ramadan which begins on Saturday.
Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Aviv Kohavi has warned that the current wave of terror attacks in Israel could spread to Israeli and Jewish targets around the world.
Hamas terror group threatened on Thursday to escalate violence against Israel, after Israeli forces launched a large-scale anti-terror operation in the West Bank in response to a string of attacks in the last two weeks that have left 11 Israelis dead.
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Iran - ORANGE and increasing *(updated 03-25-22)*
This morning, the “National Resistance of Ahwaz” - a separatist organization of the Arab minority in Iran - claims that its people are behind the explosion in the petrochemical complex in Mahshahr.
OBSERVATION - Internal dissent is still alive and well within Iran. However this is the first actual attack of this kind I’ve seen in a while. Mostly resistance has been in the form of mass protests.
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Armenia/Azerbaijan - BLUE ( updated 03/25/22)
Reports of Azeri forces attacking Armenian cities because Russia has pulled out troops to fight in Ukraine has created a power vacuum and opportunity for renewed fighting in the region.
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