Holy cow people, I certainly hope the information I’m dealing with isn’t April fools! Seems like more an more on the plate every morning. Now for the weekly heat index.
Temperature Gauge - Threat Trending Code Color Key
BLACK - An area worth noting, but not immediately impacting on US safety
BLUE - Incidents increasing and needing further monitoring, low threat to the US
YELLOW - This is the moderate concern level. Definitely becoming a threat but in the longer term.
ORANGE - A definite threat in both short term and long term. Some active events occurring
RED - Active and ongoing. Examples of this would be 2020 rioting, etc.
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Globalism / Great Reset - YELLOW trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Ukraine war has allowed GGR to operate towards the ‘reset’ without much news coverage. GGR evaluating global impacts to food supplies and economies for exploitation to the globalist cause. GGR cadre, are heaping food scarcity on top of the supply chain crisis, fuel crisis, and violent crime epidemics they’ve already brought us. Exploitation and creation of crisis - in order to get the people to turn to the global ‘saviors’ as the price of lost liberty and freedom.
BlackRock Inc. President Rob Kapito told an audience in Austin, Texas, that an entire younger generation is quickly finding out what it means to suffer from shortages, according to Bloomberg.
“For the first time, this generation is going to go into a store and not be able to get what they want,” Kapito said.
“And we have a very entitled generation that has never had to sacrifice.”
OBSERVATION - GGR will use this ‘suffering’ to pivot as saviors of the world, solving the ‘crisis’
Global digital currency enroute - From ongoing WEF meeting this week.
Economist at World Government Summit says new financial world order about to shift in dramatic new direction. Dr. Pippa Malmgrem, a top American economist who served as a special adviser to former President George W. Bush, made a statement that confirms everything myself and others have been reporting for quite some time – that a cashless society is looming right around the corner.
“We are on the brink of a dramatic change where we are about to, and I’ll say this boldly, we are about to abandon the traditional system of money and accounting and introduce a new one. And the new one; the new accounting is what we call blockchain… It means digital, it means having an almost perfect record of every single transaction that happens in the economy, which will give us far greater clarity over what’s going on.”
This new money system Malmgren talks about with such enthusiasm will not only be digital, it will be centralized and it will be programmable. Do not confuse it with Bitcoin or other crypto currencies. The only thing it will share in common with other crypto is that it will be based on blockchain technology.
So what is meant mean by “programmable” money?
This means the central banks will have complete control over your money and will be able to program it so that it can only be spent on certain things or in certain places. For example, have you purchased too many guns or too much ammunition over the past month? Maybe you indulged in too much frivolous travel and blew through too much gasoline? The government could easily have your money reprogrammed to limit future purchases of such taboo items.
OBSERVATION - Outgrowth of the social credit system. Got to break the current system first in order to replace it with this.
World Health Organization is proposing a new pandemic treaty they’re hoping will be accepted by enough member countries to become a reality by 2024. The pandemic treaty is a direct threat to a nation’s sovereignty to make decisions for itself and its citizens.
AGAIN - Moving under the radar due to Ukraine. Global control, where some globalist wonk tells America what it has to do, while exempting a ‘favored’ nation something else.
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Wuhan virus - YELLOW *last updated 12-10-21*
DISCUSSION - News largely overwhelmed by Ukraine reporting. Some rules are being silently locked in while other mandates are being removed/suspended. The distraction of war is allowing the remnants of mandates to be hidden for later use - as needed.
Dr. Peter Marks, the head of the FDA office responsible for vaccine safety, indicated the U.S. might need to offer fourth shots for people under 50-years-old in the fall. People who are now eligible for fourth shots would likely get a fifth shot if there’s evidence that would be beneficial, Marks told reporters on a conference call.
“It would not be surprising if there is a potential need for people to get an additional booster in the fall along with a more general booster campaign if that takes place,” Marks said. “It may be that a decision is made that rather than the vaccines we currently have, which are called vaccines against the prototype virus, that we will move to a vaccine that is either against one of the variants or something else.”
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Economy - RED * Updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - Inflation continues to be the prime source of concern for the US and the rest of the world.
A key inflation metric monitored by the Federal Reserve soared 6.4 percent in February compared to a a year ago, reaching a new 40-year high. The latest price surge, which effected the price of fuel, groceries and other consumer essentials, represents the largest year-over-year increase since January 1982, according to data released by the Commerce Department on Thursday.
Not taking into account food and energy fluctuations, which tend to be more erratic and can overemphasize inflation, the personal consumption expenditures price index, the preferred inflation gauge of the Federal Reserve, jumped 5.4 percent in February from a year prior. Including gas and groceries, PCE surged 6.4 percent.
Biden announces the largest release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in U.S. history. One million barrels / day for the next 6 months. That will bring the reserves to 50% capacity, the lowest since the 1980’s. All as a political tool to try to lower gasoline prices.
OBSERVATION - This administration is dedicated to destroying the petroleum industry, started form day one. Draining the petroleum reserve is another step that will leave the US increasingly vulnerable to an even greater energy crisis and in the minds of biden’s handlers provide leverage to force a ‘green’ agenda on the country. Think I’m blowing smoke - see the following
On Thursday’s broadcast of MSNBC’s “All In,” Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm stated that many hoped “we would be focusing solely on clean energy solutions, renewable, making that transition,” but the war in Ukraine has thrown a wrench into that and said that “we have got to use this reason to become energy independent with clean energy.”
biden has announced he was invoking the Defense Production Act to help increase the building of batteries for electric vehicles in the United States.
(Reuters) - A key part of the yield curve inverted on Thursday, according to Tradeweb data, as the two-year U.S. Treasury note yield rose above the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield.
That part of the yield curve inverted on Tuesday for the first time since September 2019.
An inversion of the two-year, 10-year part of the curve is viewed by many as a signal a recession is likely to follow in one to two years.
OBSERVATION - Some economists are projecting a recession by the end of the year, and not the 1-2 year frame listed above.
New data from the Census Department released last week reveal that the average cost of a new home hit a record high in February at $511,000. Now, the Federal Reserve is warning about a housing bubble.
OBSERVATION - Worrying about a bubble now, over priced demand meets unaffordable loans. . . . .
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Invasion of Illegals - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Illegals continue to push across the border with record numbers of intercepts
Over the past four years, the number of counterfeit pills containing fentanyl that have been seized by US law enforcement jumped by 4,850%, according to a new study, underscoring how an alarming surge in the deadly drug is putting people at increasing risk for accidental overdose.
The study by a consortium of academic researchers, led by New York University, was released on Thursday. Using a first-of-its-kind, real-time analysis of federal data, it found that more than 2m fake pills were seized by officials in the last quarter of 2021 alone – up from 42,000 in the first quarter of 2018. Researchers also found that the number of individual seizures involving fentanyl pills increased by 834%.
The authors say this reflects the huge supply of these pills, which criminal drug networks manufacture to look like legitimate pharmaceutical tablets such as Percocet, Xanax, and Adderall, being imported into the US and sold on the streets.
OBSERVATION - Not just illegals, human trafficking and other crime, but the flood of drugs is flowing over the entire country. Here in the Redoubt, land near Canada, fentanyl from Mexico has created a huge increase in deaths and overdoses. Its not just a border state problem.
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Biden/Harris watch - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Mental facilities continue to degrade. Harris’ mental capabilities are also questionable.
Harris appears to be incapable of putting an intelligent statement together. Following her word salads in Poland now after meeting with Jamaican delegation she swings and hits it over the fence again.
“We also recognize just as it has been in the United States, for Jamaica, one of the issues that has been presented as an issue that is economic in the way of its impact has been the pandemic,” Harris said. “So to that end, we are announcing today also that we will assist Jamaica in COVID recovery by assisting in terms of the recovery efforts in Jamaica that have been essential to, I believe, what is necessary to strengthen not only the issue of public health but also the economy.”
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CW2/Domestic violence - YELLOW trending upward *updated 03/25/22*
DISCUSSION - BLM/Antifa showing increasing trends to respond with violence to political activities (marches, meetings, etc) on the right. Increase early calls to show up armed and willing to kill. Increased first aid and riot training. Rampant crime continues with it migrating into affluent areas.
A federal jury’s $14 million award to Denver protesters hit with pepper balls and a bag filled with lead during 2020 demonstrations over the police killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis could resonate nationwide as courts weigh more than two dozen similar lawsuits.
The jury found police used excessive force against protesters, violating their constitutional rights, and ordered the city of Denver to pay 12 who sued.
Nationwide, there are at least 29 pending lawsuits challenging law enforcement use of force during the 2020 protests, according to a search of the University of Michigan’s Civil Rights Litigation Clearinghouse. -
OBSERVATION - This verdict, if left to stand, may well further the tying of law enforcements hands in future riots. Liberal/progressive cities will likely cite it as reinforcement to arguments to stand down police. We’ve seen how similar city actions have turned Portland and Seattle into hell holes and have only served to increase crime and violence.
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CANCEL CULTURE FRONT - YELLOW *updated 01-28-22*
Continued high tech censoring of conservative views.
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POLITICAL FRONT - YELLOW and increasing *updated 01-28-22*
Democrats reaching panic mode over polls for the midterms.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments - ORANGE (UPDATED 01/21/2022) *status raised*
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is extending the deployment of the Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group, its escorts and Carrier Air Wing 1 as a hedge against Russian aggression in Europe, two defense officials confirmed to USNI News on Thursday.
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Cyber Warfare - YELLOW
Continued warnings of Russian cyber attacks against US power and financial networks.
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China - ORANGE trending neutral to upward
Congo has threatened to review what it calls unfair and possibly corrupt contracts, particularly in the mining sector. And now Congo is doing it. On February 28 Congolese court took control of Congo’s Tenke Fungurume mine away from China Molybdenum corporation. According to court allegations, China Molybdenum has failed to pay millions of dollars in royalty payments on copper and cobalt ore. The court appointed a temporary administrator from Gecamines, Congo’s state-run mining authority.
OBSERVATION - Normally, this works in reverse, where China takes control of an industry upon default by the country.
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India/China - BLUE MOVING TOWARDS YELLOW *updated 120421*
Russia has told India that is won’t be able to help it in the event that China attacks in the LOC if India stops buying Russian oil. Same goes for India participating in any of the other sanctions nations has placed on Russia.
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North/South Korea - ORANGE tending upward (UPDATED 03-25-22)
Lower rainfall over the last six months means much lower wheat and barley will be harvested in Korea. South Korea and the U.S. monitor North Korean agriculture via multispectral satellites, and the drought in both Koreas is so bad that brown fields that should be green this time of year mean hunger in the north and more grain imports in the south. South Korea can better deal with drought but cannot avoid some losses. The crop disaster is worse in the north because of continuing fertilizer shortages because of problems at the main fertilizer plant.
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Japan - BLUE trending upward (updated 03-25-22
Japan has officially stated after negotiation between the two Countries since the end of WW2 recently entirely collapsed that the entire Kuril Island Chain is Japanese Sovereign Territory and is being Illegally occupied by Russian Forces.
OBSERVATION - Next question is will Japan take steps to physically regain those islands while Russia is occupied with Ukraine?
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Russia - RED * updated 02-18-22*
DISCUSSION - INCREASED WARNING ONGOING -
WAR WATCH - This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT -Russia declared a ‘pause’ in its operations in order to redeploy forces, primarily to get more forces to capture the Dombas region. This was suppose to consist of local withdrawals and consolidations with removal of some of the hardest hit units. This is not working out well for Russia as will be described in greater details in this and the Ukraine sections.
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On Thursday, the State Security Committee of South Ossetia spread a message about the provocations by individual citizens of Georgia and Georgian socio-political organizations against the law enforcement officers and military personnel of the Republic of South Ossetia and the Russian Federation.
The KGB of the Republic of South Ossetia responsibly declares that any attempts by the Georgian radical, pro-Western and extremist forces to exert any force on the Russian and South Ossetian military personnel will be regarded as international sabotage and terrorist activities, with all the ensuing consequences for its perpetrators
OBSERVATION - Removal of Russian occupation forces for the Ukraine fight has created an opportunity for countries to push back on Russian controls.
RUMINT -
Continued distrust between Putin and his military leadership.
Reinforcements -
- Up to 2,000 Russian soldiers being moved from Georgia to Ukraine due to ‘unexpected losses’ on the battlefield: UK
- Putin ordering draft of 135,000. Russia does a biannual draft in the fall and spring, and the announcement today is standard. Not to mention, the guys who will get conscripted won’t arrive at their units and be trained for months. This may free up other troops for deployment to Ukraine.
- The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 31 that 200 “mercenaries from the Middle East,” likely Syrian troops, arrived at the Gomel military airfield in Belarus on March 29
Economic Hits -
- Russia will halt gas supplies to buyers from ‘unfriendly’ states unless they switch to payments in rubles from April 1, President Vladimir Putin says bloomberg
- Russia has instituted many work arounds to imposed sanctions, forcing the west to reevaluate their moves and eliminate loopholes Russia is exploiting.
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Ukraine - RED *updated 02-18-22* - The battle for Kyiv and Ukraine has entered its second month.
WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru April 10th show warm with increasing rain/showers. Conditions likely to keep off road operations unfavorable.
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
This has been wild 24 hour period. It appears that the Russian ‘redeployments’ and troop consolidations have locally turned into a rout. Ukrainian forces maintained pressure on these relocating and withdrawing forces and have apparently made huge gains as Russian flee to Belarus and Russia, even abandoning equipment and in some instances, troops behind. Ukraine forces continue to attack the withdrawing forces, causing even more chaos for the repeating Russians.
Overnight, two Ukrainian attack helicopters struck an oil facility in Belgorod, across the border inside Russia. This was a nighttime attack! Belgorod is about 75km from the front lines. 8 reservoirs with fuel on fire at oil depot were reported to be on fire. This is the second attack in the Belgorod area, follows the attack on an ammo storage area. Russian citizens in the Belgorod area are up in arms according to social media posts, over the strike.
OBSERVATION - These strikes will complicate Russian plans by forcing them to divert ADA assets from the battlefield to defend what they thought were ‘safe’ areas. The Ukraine success in these attacks may well spur similar attacks on other Russian cities.
There massive lines at gas stations in the Belgorod Region of Western Russia are being reported following the the oil depot attack. Russian citizens in the area fear of more Ukrainian strikes as some people beginning to panic and stock up on essential goods.
Pending further confirmation, Ukraine restored control over the settlements of Demydiv, Dymer, Lytvynivka, Havrylivka, Kozarovychi, Zhovtneve, Hlybivka, Yasnohorodka, Talakun, Sukholuchcha, Lypivka, Gavronshchyna, Makovyshche, Mykolaivka, Khmilna, Kyiv region. After the enemy withdrew, Ukraine took control of the settlements of Rudnya, Shevchenkove, Bobryk, Stara Basan, Nova Basan, Makeyevka, Pogreby, Bazhanivka, Volodymyrivka, Shnyakivka, Salne, Sofiyivka, and Gavrylivka.
And the list continues to grow this morning.
Kyiv front -
A number of reports this morning that the Russians have pulled back from NW of Kyiv, all the way to Belarus. The pull back has been reportedly been unorganized and chaotic. Reportedly (pending confirmation) Russian forces around Kyiv are retreating en masse, leaving behind wrecked armor and possibly trapped pockets of troops as the Ukrainian army advances. Ukrainian Ground Forces Command claim they’ve counted “almost 700 units of equipment withdrawing towards Ivankov, towards the Belarusian border.
Some key areas retaken include Chernobyl nuclear power plant, and the Hostomel airport. The links below depict the a couple of assessment of the extent of Ukrainian successes and the poor shape Russia finds itself. Please note, these figures also cover actions in the Northern Front and North Easter Front.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPQXL-vX0BknOk5?format=jpg&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPQcEXZaAAEZeAS?format=jpg&name=large
(this second figure - blue circles represents Ukraine recaptures of last 24 hours, yellow last 48 hours)
Again, pending further confirmation, the Russian withdrawal/redeployment in this sector may well be turning into a rout. Russians are giving up ground in three days that it took them over 5 weeks to gain.
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Russian withdrawals have opened up full access to Chernihv. Ukrainian forces have moved in to secure the zone. See links above.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Ukrainan forces have essentially routed Russian elements along the old Konotop and Suma axises. See links above
The Nova Bassn pocket has been taken by Ukraine.
Russian and Ukraine forces still are clashing in the vicinity of the town of Izyum (Izium). Unconfirmed reports that Russia has finally taken control of the city. However, very little Russian progress in the area otherwise.
Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Conditions in Mariupol continue to be desperate with bombing killing hundreds of civilians. Evidence that some elements of Russian forces have penetrated to the center of the city. Russia violated its own ceasefire to allow civilians to leave and even blocked buses coming in to assist in the removal.
Russian air force continues an increased tempo to support Russian ground attacks, however, Ukraine forces still able to repulse those attacks or limit Russian advances.
Lisichansk, Luhansk oblast, a Ukrainian oil tank farm was hit. Facility reported not operating for several years.
Russia is still prioritizing this area for reinforcements and seizure.
Crimea Front -
Ukranian forces continue to press their attack towards Kherson. Novovorontsovka, Kherson Oblast, reportedly retaken by Ukrainian forces
Russian withdrawal/repositioning appears to be more orderly in this region versus the northern areas. However, Ukrainian pressure makes it difficult for the Russians.
Russian amphibious operations against the Odessa region are off the table for now.
Western Ukraine -
No significant attacks to note.
Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg
OUTLOOK -
If these reports of a Russian rout in the north fall true, their goal of reconstituting these forces for reinsertion into the Dombas fight becomes even more problematic. The events of the last 48 hours indicate that not only has the threat to Kyiv dissapated, but that Russia has given up on trying to take it at all.
The forces withdrawing from the Northern were composed primarily of CAAs brought in from the Far East Command. There will be serious command and control issues between them and the western MD’s fighting in the Dombas - just from not having worked together. That probably won’t stop Russia from trying to integrate them in anyway. Growing evidence that Russian forces have abandoned a lot of equipment (tanks etc) in this withdrawal will put additional pressure on logistics to reequip these forces.
The successful strike on the Belgorod sites will encourage Ukraine to identify and attack other targets in Russia. Again, this will force a strategic rethinking of Russia operations and stretch their forces even thinner to protect those vulnerable targets.
Russian forces will continue to close the loop in Mariupol. Their continued refusal of humanitarian aid and evacuation is nothing but a war crime and desire to punish the citizens. Defenders may not have much more than a week left. However, their defense continues to tie down and attrit Russian forces that could be shifted into the attack to seize the greater Dombas.
I expect more rocket/bomb and artillery attack of Ukrainian cities in the southeast and rest of the country - more of the same.
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Belarus - RED *updated 01-02-28*
DISCUSSION - Managing to keep its forces in country and not commit to ground combat in Ukraine.
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Poland - ORANGE trending upward *updated 3-18-22*
DISCUSSION - Poland could well be within Russian crosshairs for its operation in resupplying Ukrainian forces.
Continued Ukraine resupply hub for humanitarian and military supplies to Ukraine.
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Europe / NATO General - ORANGE *updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - Increasing potential that NATO will become involved in an Ukraine invasion as Poland, Romania and the Baltic Nations respond.
Britain and its allies have agreed to send air and coastal defence systems, longer-range artillery and counter battery capabilities, armored vehicles as well as provide wider training and logistical support to Ukraine, British defence minister Ben Wallace said
More discussions from NATO about supplying anti-ship systems
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Israel - ORANGE trending upward *updated 04-01-22*
DISCUSSION - Several terror attacks by West Bank Palestinians has caused tensions to skyrocket over the past week. Israel could face attacks from both the West Bank and Gaza is things escalate with the approach of Ramadan which begins on Saturday.
Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Aviv Kohavi has warned that the current wave of terror attacks in Israel could spread to Israeli and Jewish targets around the world.
Hamas terror group threatened on Thursday to escalate violence against Israel, after Israeli forces launched a large-scale anti-terror operation in the West Bank in response to a string of attacks in the last two weeks that have left 11 Israelis dead.
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Iran - ORANGE and increasing *(updated 03-25-22)*
This morning, the “National Resistance of Ahwaz” - a separatist organization of the Arab minority in Iran - claims that its people are behind the explosion in the petrochemical complex in Mahshahr.
OBSERVATION - Internal dissent is still alive and well within Iran. However this is the first actual attack of this kind I’ve seen in a while. Mostly resistance has been in the form of mass protests.
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Armenia/Azerbaijan - BLUE ( updated 03/25/22)
Reports of Azeri forces attacking Armenian cities because Russia has pulled out troops to fight in Ukraine has created a power vacuum and opportunity for renewed fighting in the region.
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Globalism / Great Reset -
During a keynote speech on the opening day of the World Government Summit (WGS2022) in Dubai, World Economic Forum (WEF) founder and executive chairman Klaus Schwab said the world can only be improved by more government cooperation at more levels.
“The world has to overcome not only the damage done to our economies and our societies by COVID-19, it also has to confront the repercussions of a dangerous clash between major global powers,” Schwab went on to say during the session, Our World Today: Why Governments Need to Act Now.
Schwab, also warned of global cyberattacks and worldwide disruptions with food and energy systems.
“We do not yet know the full extent and the systemic structural changes which will happen, however, we do know the global energy systems, food systems, and supply chains will be deeply affected,” Schwab said speaking on the economic fallout from Covid-19, dangers of climate change and clashing world governments.”
“The time has come for world governments to unite as one and tackle global problems such as climate change, trade, and economic disruption without hinderance or delay,”
OBSERVATION - WEF answer to the global food and energy crisis is to expand government power, under a one-world format
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Wuhan virus -
According to new survey data released Thursday, more than 44 percent of American teens reported “persistent feelings of sadness or hopelessness” while nearly 20 percent seriously considered suicide, and nine percent actually did attempt suicide in 2020. “These data echo a cry for help,” Debra Houry, a CDC deputy director, told the Washington Post. “The COVID-19 pandemic has created traumatic stressors that have the potential to further erode students’ mental well-being.”
OBSERVATION - Among other things the ill designed lock downs and mandates the branch covidians forced on society. Add to it increased drug and alcohol abuse/use, increased violence, increased cancer/other diseases etc and the unintended consequences have exceeded any benefit fo the wuhan response.
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Economy -
OPEC and its allies including Russia decided on Thursday to stick with a schedule of gradual production increases. The group, said Thursday that it would boost crude output by 432,000 barrels a day in May as it works to restore pre-pandemic levels of production, according to a statement. That’s up slightly from 400,000 barrels per day in previous months.
OBSERVATION - Why should they increase production more (from their view point), when they are receiving a windfall of money and they watch the US shoot itself in the foot by tapping the SPR and reducing it in half.
The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) continues unabated. This pandemic is not even two months old yet, and the death toll for chickens and turkeys has now risen to nearly 17 million.
OBSERVATION - Even higher food prices for poultry and eggs. And don’t forget those products that contain eggs, chicken or turkey.
The US economy added 431,000 jobs in March, missing the forecast for 490,000 new payrolls ,the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced Friday morning. The gain is the smallest since September and reflects weaker job growth than the prior month’s pace.
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Invasion of Illegals -
The Biden administration on Friday announced that it will be terminating the Title 42 public health policy, that has been used by both the Trump and Biden administrations to quickly expel migrants at the southern border since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, at the end of May – despite fears of a massive migrant wave in the coming months.
“After considering current public health conditions and an increased availability of tools to fight COVID-19 (such as highly effective vaccines and therapeutics), the CDC Director has determined that an Order suspending the right to introduce migrants into the United States is no longer necessary,” the Centers for Disease Control said in a statement.
Mayorkas noted that 600 additional Border Patrol agents have been deployed and a senior DHS official said the department is prepared to mobilize other officers.
OBSERVATION - This will flood our borders and create massive chaos to our society. SMH, biden et al continue to agressively move to destroy this country. Also, 600 more officers to face a daily surge estimated in the range of 18,000/day.
More than 62,000 illegal immigrants evaded Border Patrol agents in March, averaging about 2,000 a day, according to multiple Customs and Border Protection (CBP) sources.
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Biden / Harris watch -
The White House refused to rule out President Joe Biden issuing a presidential pardon for his son Hunter Biden or for his brother James Biden as federal investigations continue over their foreign business dealings.
“That’s not a hypothetical I’m going to entertain,” White House communications director Kate Bedingfield said during the daily press briefing when asked about a potential pardon “I don’t have anything to add from this podium.”
OBSERVATION - Speculation continues on whether or not the hunter probes could be a leverage to oust biden from the WH - if they can figure out how to deal with harris.
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POLITICAL FRONT -
The House voted to pass a law legalizing marijuana
OBSERVATION - Good thing to know given the far more SERIOUS issues our country is facing.
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China -
In response to increased Chinese military and economic threats in the region, Australia has decided to increase the size of its military by 30 percent over the next eight years. Currently the Australian military has 59,000 active-duty personnel and 29,000 in the reserves. A 30 percent increase would mean 77,000 personnel by 2030.
RUMINT. China staged a huge cyberattack on Ukraine’s military and nuclear facilities in the build-up to Russia’s invasion, according to intelligence memos obtained by The Times
OBSERVATION - Questionable in the effort required to pull this off and China would’ve required a lot of Russian direction / help in breaking into nets as Ukraine isn’t in its normal AO.
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North/South Korea -
U.S. imposes sanctions on 5 North Korean entities over recent ICBM tests
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia is switching to a defensive posture over most of the territory seized from Ukraine as an Economy of Force effort. This redeployment is more likely readjustment of forces to consolidate into more defendable positions and protect their supply lines. Combat ineffective units also being pulled out to Belarus to rearm, reform and reequip.
Russia is becoming more aggressive in strategic strikes into western Ukraine to disrupt food, fuel, maintenance/repair and resupply lines from Poland.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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Russia says it will target Britain’s high-precision weapons as they enter Ukraine. According to Russian Ambassador to Britain Andrei Kelin, the strikes will likely occur in western Ukraine, possibly around the Lviv area.
Kazakhstan is openly refusing to support Russia in its war in Ukraine, as well as unequivocally declining to recognize Crimea or Donbas annexation/’independence.’ This despite being in alliance with Russia and receiving CSTO support just three months ago.
“Russia wants us to support them but we don’t recognize Crimea, or Donbas. Yes, we are in a union with Russia but it doesn’t apply to this situation. We won’t help Russia avoid US and EU sanctions.” - Deputy chair of the presidential administration in Kazakhstan.
Russia has been making complaints about the apparent Ukrainian strike on a petroleum tank farm in Belgorod, as if it is ok for Russian bomb Ukraine, but not so to bomb Russian territory.
Logistics - Reconstitution of BTGs in Russia’s plan.
Up to 120 Russian battalion tactical groups involved in the Ukraine campaign. That is 75% of its BTGs as well as Rosgvardia and conscripts. . It is estimated that Russian want to restore up to 34 BTGs while 16 BTGs have been totally destroyed. The rule of thumb is that when a unit loses around 1/3 of its paper strength, it is effectively destroyed. For a 800-man Russian BTG, that amounts to just 3 tanks and around 20 other armored vehicles.
Reconstituting a BTG is not that simple. First it requires personnel replacements. Russia lacks the trained soldiers and has to rely upon poorly trained conscripts at this time for replacement. Highly trained units, like the VDV have been cut to pieces after being used as the ‘tip of the spear” in most of the Russia attacks to date. These replacements need time to be integrated into the reforged units to restore cohesiveness.
Second requires equipment. By conservative estimates, Russia has lost nearly 3000 vehicles of all types including at least 300 tanks and hundreds of armored infantry related vehicles. Voices out there say Russia has thousands of tanks and armored vehicles to draw upon. However, it has been revealed that most of this equipment is old, poorly maintained and missing essential parts (like weapon sights, communication systems, etc) One estimate suggests that only 10% of Russia’s war storage of tanks and armor are combat ready. Then there is the need to train soldiers up on the equipment. Even though they are designed to minimize differences say in tanks, different versions have different quirks that need to be learned.
Finally, finding qualified leadership to lead these reconstituted units. Russia has lost an astounding number of battalion and higher leaders, let alone junior officers. Again, that will take time to properly piece things back together. Under normal conditions - months - but Russia has only days/weeks. So it is likely that these reconstituted BTGs will be even more poorly prepared for battle than the starting groups.
Russian Personnel Issues -
- Ukraine intel - “We see the redeployment of Russian forces and divisions of the so-called Transnistrian republic to demonstrate readiness for an invasion and possibly military actions against Ukraine.” Moldovan Foreign Ministry said that the authorities don’t confirm the increase in military activity in the occupied region, but will continue to “monitor and exchange information with partners.” It is believed that there are only 2000-3000 Russian troops in Transnistria and Russia faces a potential attempt by Moldova to recapture the territory if they remove too many.
Economic Impacts -
- The Biden administration announced on Friday a new round of export restrictions against Russia and Belarus, adding 120 entities, mostly companies with links to the military, to a list of those effectively blocked from receiving vital technology.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru April 11th with a lot of rain in the forecast . Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Tempo has slowed a little, but still highly fluid. Ukrainians are on track to liberate the entire Kyiv Oblast within the week following a Russian retreat. Some battles still being fought in a few areas though. It was not a smooth withdrawal for the Russians. Russians are continuing to press their attacks in the Southeastern region of the country while trying withdraw / reposition in the other parts of the country. Increased missile/bombing attacks on Dnipro and surrounding cities.
Mariupol still manages to hold while Russia foils promised relief efforts.
Russia is still recoiling from the helicopter strike against the petroleum facility in Belgorod.
Kyiv front -
Situation has become VERY fluid.
Russian forces continue to withdraw under pressure by Ukrainian forces. See map link below. Ukraine forces attempting to cut off the southern salient of the russian advance by attacking along a major route on two axis, eastward from Borodyanka and westward from Hostomel.
As Ukrainian forces are consolidating recaptured cities, they are encountering evidence of Russian brutality toward civilians. In Bucha, for example, videos are being posted showing many civilians shot dead by retreating Russian army, bodies lying everywhere on the streets. Some with tied arms.
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Russian forces did not conduct any major operations along the Chernihiv and Sumy axis in the past 24 hours. Ukraine forces continue to recapture cities and towns around Chernihiv, expanding the freed zone around it. Russian troops left the town of Horodnya (NW of Chernihiv) on 1st April, and Ukrainan forces are back in control according to the head of Horodnya territorial community Andriy Bohdan
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Russian forces falling back under pressure from Ukrainan elements. The Konotop and Sumy Russian road bound ‘pincers’ are essentially non existent any more. Gaps in Russia occupation are also beginning to develop between Konotop, Sumy and Khariv. It appears that Russian forces have abandoned operations to encircle and capture Kharkiv and Sumy. Kharkiv does continue to face heavy artillery bombardment of residential areas.
Fierce fighting continues south of Khariv, with It is being reported that Russian forces having captured Izyum on April 1. Russian forces elsewhere in this area have made little to no progress. This is part of an effort to advance southeast to link up with Russian forces in Luhansk Oblast in the coming days.
Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Mariupol is close to falling to Russian forces who’ve managed to essentially cut the pocket in half.
Russia announced a ceasefire then sabotaged a Red Cross effort to begin evacuating civilians on Friday. International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) said. “They will try again on Saturday to facilitate the safe passage of civilians from Mariupol,” the ICRC said in a statement. It said the convoy returned to Zaporizhzhia northwest of the southern port “after arrangements and conditions made it impossible to proceed”.
Russian army shelled Severodonetsk, Rubizhne, Lysychansk, Kreminna, Hirske, Popasna Berezove, Toshkivka in last 24 hours. Attacks were made on a refinery in Kremenchuk, and airfields in Dnipro and Poltava cities. Dnipro has come under increased missile and bombing attacks.
Crimea Front -
Ukrainian forces conducted successful counterattacks in northern Kherson Oblast on April 1, capturing several towns and pushing Russian forces south from Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia.
Russian forces are highly unlikely to successfully resume offensive operations toward Mykolayiv in the coming days and will likely prioritize defending Kherson against Ukrainian counterattacks.
No amphibious operations against Odessa region appear to be possible in the near and long term.
Western Ukraine -
No significant missile strikes overnight.
Current map of the estimated situation on the ground is found here -
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPTGu8kWQBACYcJ?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
OUTLOOK -
Russia focus will continue to be Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine in an effort to secure the Dombas region. All other sectors will be either withdrawing or conducting economy of force / defensive operations.
Russian forces in the north face encirclement and defeat over the next week.
Maripol may last for a week, but things continue to be desperate as Ukrainian forces grudgingly lose ground.
The potential for Russian troops in Transnistria to conduct an invasion towards Odessa could result in an amphibious invasion. However, the numbers for Transnistria suggest not much more than 1-2 BTGs available and the combat readiness of those units are questionable. Thus the probability of this event is rated low at this time based on the information available. Even with that limited ground attack, an amphibious operation is dubious at best. The shut down of the land threat from the east (Kherson) has been negated.
Russia will resume attacks in Western Ukraine, forced to divert assets from Eastern Ukraine in an attempt to interdict resupply efforts.
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Europe / NATO General -
The US is planning to work with allies to assist in the transfer of Soviet-made tanks to Ukrainian forces, an unnamed US official told The New York Times. It’s the first time the US has helped deliver tanks to Ukraine since Russia invaded and comes after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy renewed his requests for the West to send tanks and planes.
Czech Republic to transfer 56 upgraded BMP-1 armored vehicles to Ukraine
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Israel -
Three members of a terror cell were killed in a firefight with Border Police’s Counterterrorism Unit officers in Araba near Jenin on Friday night, according to the Shin Bet (Israel Security Service).
They were later identified as belonging to the armed wing of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), which vowed after the incident to continue fighting Israel “in the name of the Palestinian people,” Yet reported.
The terrorists were responsible for a previous terror attack in Tulkarm, and intelligence determined that they were on the way to carry out another large-scale attack; they were defined by the Shin Bet as “ticking time-bombs.”
OBSERVATION - Conditions continue to be tense as Ramadan begins.
Hamas has issued a statement drawing a redline to Israeli presence at Al-Aqsa Mosque. The group urged Palestinians to attend prayers at Al-Aqsa & warned the mosque will be a “forbidden” area for Jews & Israeli forces. If the warning is not heeded a response will occur
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