Replies

________________________________

Globalism / Great Reset -

During a keynote speech on the opening day of the World Government Summit (WGS2022) in Dubai, World Economic Forum (WEF) founder and executive chairman Klaus Schwab said the world can only be improved by more government cooperation at more levels.
“The world has to overcome not only the damage done to our economies and our societies by COVID-19, it also has to confront the repercussions of a dangerous clash between major global powers,” Schwab went on to say during the session, Our World Today: Why Governments Need to Act Now.
Schwab, also warned of global cyberattacks and worldwide disruptions with food and energy systems.
“We do not yet know the full extent and the systemic structural changes which will happen, however, we do know the global energy systems, food systems, and supply chains will be deeply affected,” Schwab said speaking on the economic fallout from Covid-19, dangers of climate change and clashing world governments.”
“The time has come for world governments to unite as one and tackle global problems such as climate change, trade, and economic disruption without hinderance or delay,”
OBSERVATION - WEF answer to the global food and energy crisis is to expand government power, under a one-world format

_____________________________

Wuhan virus -

According to new survey data released Thursday, more than 44 percent of American teens reported “persistent feelings of sadness or hopelessness” while nearly 20 percent seriously considered suicide, and nine percent actually did attempt suicide in 2020. “These data echo a cry for help,” Debra Houry, a CDC deputy director, told the Washington Post. “The COVID-19 pandemic has created traumatic stressors that have the potential to further erode students’ mental well-being.”
OBSERVATION - Among other things the ill designed lock downs and mandates the branch covidians forced on society. Add to it increased drug and alcohol abuse/use, increased violence, increased cancer/other diseases etc and the unintended consequences have exceeded any benefit fo the wuhan response.
_____________________________

Economy -

OPEC and its allies including Russia decided on Thursday to stick with a schedule of gradual production increases. The group, said Thursday that it would boost crude output by 432,000 barrels a day in May as it works to restore pre-pandemic levels of production, according to a statement. That’s up slightly from 400,000 barrels per day in previous months.
OBSERVATION - Why should they increase production more (from their view point), when they are receiving a windfall of money and they watch the US shoot itself in the foot by tapping the SPR and reducing it in half.

The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) continues unabated. This pandemic is not even two months old yet, and the death toll for chickens and turkeys has now risen to nearly 17 million.
OBSERVATION - Even higher food prices for poultry and eggs. And don’t forget those products that contain eggs, chicken or turkey.

The US economy added 431,000 jobs in March, missing the forecast for 490,000 new payrolls ,the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced Friday morning. The gain is the smallest since September and reflects weaker job growth than the prior month’s pace.
______________________________

Invasion of Illegals -

The Biden administration on Friday announced that it will be terminating the Title 42 public health policy, that has been used by both the Trump and Biden administrations to quickly expel migrants at the southern border since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, at the end of May – despite fears of a massive migrant wave in the coming months.
“After considering current public health conditions and an increased availability of tools to fight COVID-19 (such as highly effective vaccines and therapeutics), the CDC Director has determined that an Order suspending the right to introduce migrants into the United States is no longer necessary,” the Centers for Disease Control said in a statement.
Mayorkas noted that 600 additional Border Patrol agents have been deployed and a senior DHS official said the department is prepared to mobilize other officers.
OBSERVATION - This will flood our borders and create massive chaos to our society. SMH, biden et al continue to agressively move to destroy this country. Also, 600 more officers to face a daily surge estimated in the range of 18,000/day.

More than 62,000 illegal immigrants evaded Border Patrol agents in March, averaging about 2,000 a day, according to multiple Customs and Border Protection (CBP) sources.

______________________________

Biden / Harris watch -

The White House refused to rule out President Joe Biden issuing a presidential pardon for his son Hunter Biden or for his brother James Biden as federal investigations continue over their foreign business dealings.
“That’s not a hypothetical I’m going to entertain,” White House communications director Kate Bedingfield said during the daily press briefing when asked about a potential pardon “I don’t have anything to add from this podium.”
OBSERVATION - Speculation continues on whether or not the hunter probes could be a leverage to oust biden from the WH - if they can figure out how to deal with harris.
___________________________

POLITICAL FRONT -

The House voted to pass a law legalizing marijuana
OBSERVATION - Good thing to know given the far more SERIOUS issues our country is facing.
_____________________________________

China -

In response to increased Chinese military and economic threats in the region, Australia has decided to increase the size of its military by 30 percent over the next eight years. Currently the Australian military has 59,000 active-duty personnel and 29,000 in the reserves. A 30 percent increase would mean 77,000 personnel by 2030.

RUMINT. China staged a huge cyberattack on Ukraine’s military and nuclear facilities in the build-up to Russia’s invasion, according to intelligence memos obtained by The Times
OBSERVATION - Questionable in the effort required to pull this off and China would’ve required a lot of Russian direction / help in breaking into nets as Ukraine isn’t in its normal AO.

____________________________________

North/South Korea -

U.S. imposes sanctions on 5 North Korean entities over recent ICBM tests

__________________________________

Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia is switching to a defensive posture over most of the territory seized from Ukraine as an Economy of Force effort. This redeployment is more likely readjustment of forces to consolidate into more defendable positions and protect their supply lines. Combat ineffective units also being pulled out to Belarus to rearm, reform and reequip.

Russia is becoming more aggressive in strategic strikes into western Ukraine to disrupt food, fuel, maintenance/repair and resupply lines from Poland.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********
Russia says it will target Britain’s high-precision weapons as they enter Ukraine. According to Russian Ambassador to Britain Andrei Kelin, the strikes will likely occur in western Ukraine, possibly around the Lviv area.

Kazakhstan is openly refusing to support Russia in its war in Ukraine, as well as unequivocally declining to recognize Crimea or Donbas annexation/’independence.’ This despite being in alliance with Russia and receiving CSTO support just three months ago.
“Russia wants us to support them but we don’t recognize Crimea, or Donbas. Yes, we are in a union with Russia but it doesn’t apply to this situation. We won’t help Russia avoid US and EU sanctions.” - Deputy chair of the presidential administration in Kazakhstan.

Russia has been making complaints about the apparent Ukrainian strike on a petroleum tank farm in Belgorod, as if it is ok for Russian bomb Ukraine, but not so to bomb Russian territory.

Logistics - Reconstitution of BTGs in Russia’s plan.
Up to 120 Russian battalion tactical groups involved in the Ukraine campaign. That is 75% of its BTGs as well as Rosgvardia and conscripts. . It is estimated that Russian want to restore up to 34 BTGs while 16 BTGs have been totally destroyed. The rule of thumb is that when a unit loses around 1/3 of its paper strength, it is effectively destroyed. For a 800-man Russian BTG, that amounts to just 3 tanks and around 20 other armored vehicles.

Reconstituting a BTG is not that simple. First it requires personnel replacements. Russia lacks the trained soldiers and has to rely upon poorly trained conscripts at this time for replacement. Highly trained units, like the VDV have been cut to pieces after being used as the ‘tip of the spear” in most of the Russia attacks to date. These replacements need time to be integrated into the reforged units to restore cohesiveness.

Second requires equipment. By conservative estimates, Russia has lost nearly 3000 vehicles of all types including at least 300 tanks and hundreds of armored infantry related vehicles. Voices out there say Russia has thousands of tanks and armored vehicles to draw upon. However, it has been revealed that most of this equipment is old, poorly maintained and missing essential parts (like weapon sights, communication systems, etc) One estimate suggests that only 10% of Russia’s war storage of tanks and armor are combat ready. Then there is the need to train soldiers up on the equipment. Even though they are designed to minimize differences say in tanks, different versions have different quirks that need to be learned.

Finally, finding qualified leadership to lead these reconstituted units. Russia has lost an astounding number of battalion and higher leaders, let alone junior officers. Again, that will take time to properly piece things back together. Under normal conditions - months - but Russia has only days/weeks. So it is likely that these reconstituted BTGs will be even more poorly prepared for battle than the starting groups.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Ukraine intel - “We see the redeployment of Russian forces and divisions of the so-called Transnistrian republic to demonstrate readiness for an invasion and possibly military actions against Ukraine.” Moldovan Foreign Ministry said that the authorities don’t confirm the increase in military activity in the occupied region, but will continue to “monitor and exchange information with partners.” It is believed that there are only 2000-3000 Russian troops in Transnistria and Russia faces a potential attempt by Moldova to recapture the territory if they remove too many.

Economic Impacts -
- The Biden administration announced on Friday a new round of export restrictions against Russia and Belarus, adding 120 entities, mostly companies with links to the military, to a list of those effectively blocked from receiving vital technology.

____________________________________

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru April 11th with a lot of rain in the forecast . Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Tempo has slowed a little, but still highly fluid. Ukrainians are on track to liberate the entire Kyiv Oblast within the week following a Russian retreat. Some battles still being fought in a few areas though. It was not a smooth withdrawal for the Russians. Russians are continuing to press their attacks in the Southeastern region of the country while trying withdraw / reposition in the other parts of the country. Increased missile/bombing attacks on Dnipro and surrounding cities.
Mariupol still manages to hold while Russia foils promised relief efforts.
Russia is still recoiling from the helicopter strike against the petroleum facility in Belgorod.

Kyiv front -
Situation has become VERY fluid.
Russian forces continue to withdraw under pressure by Ukrainian forces. See map link below. Ukraine forces attempting to cut off the southern salient of the russian advance by attacking along a major route on two axis, eastward from Borodyanka and westward from Hostomel.
As Ukrainian forces are consolidating recaptured cities, they are encountering evidence of Russian brutality toward civilians. In Bucha, for example, videos are being posted showing many civilians shot dead by retreating Russian army, bodies lying everywhere on the streets. Some with tied arms.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Russian forces did not conduct any major operations along the Chernihiv and Sumy axis in the past 24 hours. Ukraine forces continue to recapture cities and towns around Chernihiv, expanding the freed zone around it. Russian troops left the town of Horodnya (NW of Chernihiv) on 1st April, and Ukrainan forces are back in control according to the head of Horodnya territorial community Andriy Bohdan

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Russian forces falling back under pressure from Ukrainan elements. The Konotop and Sumy Russian road bound ‘pincers’ are essentially non existent any more. Gaps in Russia occupation are also beginning to develop between Konotop, Sumy and Khariv. It appears that Russian forces have abandoned operations to encircle and capture Kharkiv and Sumy. Kharkiv does continue to face heavy artillery bombardment of residential areas.

Fierce fighting continues south of Khariv, with It is being reported that Russian forces having captured Izyum on April 1. Russian forces elsewhere in this area have made little to no progress. This is part of an effort to advance southeast to link up with Russian forces in Luhansk Oblast in the coming days.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Mariupol is close to falling to Russian forces who’ve managed to essentially cut the pocket in half.
Russia announced a ceasefire then sabotaged a Red Cross effort to begin evacuating civilians on Friday. International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) said. “They will try again on Saturday to facilitate the safe passage of civilians from Mariupol,” the ICRC said in a statement. It said the convoy returned to Zaporizhzhia northwest of the southern port “after arrangements and conditions made it impossible to proceed”.

Russian army shelled Severodonetsk, Rubizhne, Lysychansk, Kreminna, Hirske, Popasna Berezove, Toshkivka in last 24 hours. Attacks were made on a refinery in Kremenchuk, and airfields in Dnipro and Poltava cities. Dnipro has come under increased missile and bombing attacks.

Crimea Front -

Ukrainian forces conducted successful counterattacks in northern Kherson Oblast on April 1, capturing several towns and pushing Russian forces south from Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia.

Russian forces are highly unlikely to successfully resume offensive operations toward Mykolayiv in the coming days and will likely prioritize defending Kherson against Ukrainian counterattacks.

No amphibious operations against Odessa region appear to be possible in the near and long term.

Western Ukraine -
No significant missile strikes overnight.

Current map of the estimated situation on the ground is found here -

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPTGu8kWQBACYcJ?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

OUTLOOK -
Russia focus will continue to be Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine in an effort to secure the Dombas region. All other sectors will be either withdrawing or conducting economy of force / defensive operations.

Russian forces in the north face encirclement and defeat over the next week.

Maripol may last for a week, but things continue to be desperate as Ukrainian forces grudgingly lose ground.

The potential for Russian troops in Transnistria to conduct an invasion towards Odessa could result in an amphibious invasion. However, the numbers for Transnistria suggest not much more than 1-2 BTGs available and the combat readiness of those units are questionable. Thus the probability of this event is rated low at this time based on the information available. Even with that limited ground attack, an amphibious operation is dubious at best. The shut down of the land threat from the east (Kherson) has been negated.

Russia will resume attacks in Western Ukraine, forced to divert assets from Eastern Ukraine in an attempt to interdict resupply efforts.
___________________________________

Europe / NATO General -

The US is planning to work with allies to assist in the transfer of Soviet-made tanks to Ukrainian forces, an unnamed US official told The New York Times. It’s the first time the US has helped deliver tanks to Ukraine since Russia invaded and comes after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy renewed his requests for the West to send tanks and planes.

Czech Republic to transfer 56 upgraded BMP-1 armored vehicles to Ukraine

____________________________________

Israel -

Three members of a terror cell were killed in a firefight with Border Police’s Counterterrorism Unit officers in Araba near Jenin on Friday night, according to the Shin Bet (Israel Security Service).
They were later identified as belonging to the armed wing of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), which vowed after the incident to continue fighting Israel “in the name of the Palestinian people,” Yet reported.
The terrorists were responsible for a previous terror attack in Tulkarm, and intelligence determined that they were on the way to carry out another large-scale attack; they were defined by the Shin Bet as “ticking time-bombs.”
OBSERVATION - Conditions continue to be tense as Ramadan begins.

Hamas has issued a statement drawing a redline to Israeli presence at Al-Aqsa Mosque. The group urged Palestinians to attend prayers at Al-Aqsa & warned the mosque will be a “forbidden” area for Jews & Israeli forces. If the warning is not heeded a response will occur

____________________________________