Wuhan virus -
Preliminary data from the federal Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS) database for just the first two months of 2022 suggests an alarming spike in heart problems possibly stemming from the COVID-19 vaccines.
On March 11, The Blaze senior editor Daniel Horowitz highlighted the fact that 11,289 cases of pericarditis/myocarditis after COVID vaccination were reported to VAERS between January 1 and February 25 of this year, which is already 47% of the 24,177 reports for the same submitted in all of 2021.
The nation is preparing to celebrate what has become a beloved annual holiday: Two Weeks To Slow The Spread Day, to be held in March every year. (BB)
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Economy -
The Biden administration is finally moving forward with re-starting the leasing of federal land for oil and gas drilling. The Interior Department made the announcement after a federal appeals court ruled in favor of the administration last week. The “social cost of carbon” value is factored in measuring the cost of climate change in the drilling process. The court ruled that the administration can use a higher calculation value of per ton of greenhouse gases emitted in the federal decision–making process.
OBSERVATION - It will be month, even years before a lot of this oil reaches the gas pumps.
On March 14, with the recent energy price spike reaching crisis levels, Biden gave a speech to a DNC fundraiser in Washington where he doubled down on his fossil-fuel-suppression promises.
“Imagine where we’d be right now if, in fact, Europe was in fact energy- free of fossil fuels and was — we were in a situation where — (coughs) — excuse me — where — where we — it was all renewables. It’d be a different world. And — and so, we have to get off the dependency on fossil fuels . . . . I mean, literally, not figuratively — meaning both here [U.S.] and there [Europe]. And the dependence of Europe on fossil fuels is — way exceeds any dependence we have. And so, it’s not an immediate solution to the crisis, but it’s all about the future if we were to change the fossil fuel dependency.”
The Green Markets North American Fertilizer Index, already high, jumped 16% last Friday. Urea, a major fertilizer ingredient, went up 22%. Potash, another major ingredient (Russia is the top producer), increased 34% in Brazil, the world’s leading fertilizer importer. The price for standard “starter fertilizer” 10-34-0 is up 49% from a year ago and likely to go much higher.
Bloomberg analyst Alexis Maxwell calls it “a slow-moving disaster.”
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Invasion of Illegals -
Yuma Sector Border Patrol agents apprehended a group of 100 migrants who illegally crossed the border earlier this week. The migrants came to the U.S. from ten different countries. So far this year, Yuma Sector agents apprehended nearly 120,000 migrants. Agents apprehended 20,329 of those just in February, the latest month for which statistics are available from CBP officials.
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Biden / Harris watch -
Hunter Biden laptop coverup scandal has suddenly gained traction among journalists that just a couple years ago called it a fake Russian planted story. Now liberal flagship NYT is reporting on a growing federal investigation into Hunter’s finances. Some are suggesting that this sudden ‘interest’ into Hunter may well turn as a means to force FJB to step down. Remember, these are democrats making this call.
Biden will reportedly Meet with Polish President Duda in the Capital of Warsaw on Friday after his meetings this week with NATO, The European Union, and The Group of Seven in addition to other Regional Partners, the Subject of these Meetings will be Ukraine
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POLITICAL FRONT -
Ketanji Brown Jackson (KBJ) faces senate hearings today. Her primary qualification is she’s a black woman.
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North Korea -
North Korea slams Australia, Japan for ‘extremely dangerous’ military buildup, especially sub capabilities
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Ukraine still stands now entering the 4th week of war.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Could be seeing the start of Russia trying to switch the momentum via a series of attacks.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 100% of the combat force Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, It is becoming more and more apparent Russia has been scrambling to get more combat forces into theater and support those already committed.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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Putin continues to reinforce his control of domestic media, attempting to obscure high casualties amid fierce resistance encountered in his invasion of Ukraine, according to a British Defense Ministry intelligence estimate.
More propaganda, trying to set up a false flag event? Russian Ministry of defense accuse Ukraine: in preparations of attack on western diplomats in L’viv, in planting explosives at cylinders with ammonium and chlorine in Sumy, deploying cylinders with chemicals to school in Kotlarovo village of Mykolaiv region
OBSERVATION - See discussion under Ukraine - North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) Russian artillery did strike the Sumy facility and release ammonia.
Russia tells U.S. ambassador that ties on verge of being severed - Reuters
Russia still trying to reinforce the war effort -
With troops coming from as far as Georgian breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the Russian forces may have scrounged up to 40 battalion tactical groups.
OBSERVATION - The combat readiness of these forces is questionable and there will still be a delay before they can enter battle.
ALSO OF NOTE - Withdrawal of forces from these contested regions may encourage Georgia to try to retake them.
Economic Impacts -
- All 4 major international oilfield servicing firms have now left Russia: Halliburton, Schlumberger, Baker Hughes and Weatherford International. Russia will struggle with exploration and servicing of fields without them.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 29th show a warming trend into the 50’s . Rain is forecast in the upcoming week. Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions,.
RUNINT -
Partially confirmed - There are reports a combined detachment of 6th Guards Lvov Tank Regiment (from 90th Tank Division) has been destroyed & the commander, Col. A. Zakharov, is KIA.
331st Airborne VDV Regiment has apparently lost either a BTG or itself been annihilated, depending on the source. Among the confirmed KIA is the colonel, the regiment’s deputy commander, at least one battalion major & 2 lieutenants.
OBSERVATION - I’ve haven’t spent much time on units being lost, but these reports show how hard the russian forces have been hit. Some estimate that as many as 40 BTG out of an approximately 120 they started with have been taken out action.
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Evidence has built up that Belarus may be ready to enter the war. Large convoys of Belarusian military vehicles have been observed heading for Brest near the Polish border over the past week. The equipment is marked with an identification mark - a red square. Videos capture unloading of a train with equipment in Luninets (Brest region). All remaining Belorussian diplomatic staff have left Ukraine and soldiers began wearing red armbands. As a result, General Staff of the Ukrainian army believe a Belarusian offensive in the Volyn region in north-western Ukraine. An attack is expected in the next two days. “The risk is assessed as high”
ANALYSIS - An assault on this axis toward Lviv makes sense as it is developing into a staging area for foreign forces fighting for Ukraine, back up government and transfer of arms and munitions to the fight in the east. So far, Russia’s influence in in western Ukraine has been limited to cruse and ballistic missiles. Boots on the ground could pose a greater threat and divert men and equipment from the east. Combat effectiveness of Belarusian forces is highly questionable, being assessed by the west as one of the poorest trained and equipped of eastern European armies. I see very little chance of significant success of such an attack by Belarusian forces but freezing some Ukraine assets and forcing them to look rearward as Russia steps up attacks in the east may be the goal.
Russia has sharpened its intelligence teeth -
Several incidents, cumulating in the missile strike of a shopping mall in Lviv overnight show that Russia intelligence has finally stepped up and is providing actionable targeting data. Earlier strikes over the past few days include areas training and integrating foreign fighters - suspected cell phone tap. The Lviv strike brought initial questions of why target a shopping mall, until imagery came out overnight as well showing Ukraine military vehicles parked within the building targeted (imagery only a few days old). So far, its been Ukraine winning the intelligence battle, but recent strikes show that OPSEC and SIGSEC cannot get lax.
Overnight things on the ground got rough for Ukraine as Russians forces have made gains on several fronts, see specifics below.
Kyiv front -
Russia has managed push close enough to start using its artillery to bombard the city in a war of attrition. Cruse missiles struck portions of the town overnight. Flooded terrain in the vicinity of Irpin have rendered about half of the front unnavigable.
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Russian forces appear to have partially encircled Chernihiv and are continuing to hammer the city with a lot of artillery and bombs. Russian forces also appear to be trying to bypass Chernihiv to push towards Kyiv.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Continued Russian efforts to isolate Sumy and Khariv, but sustaining heavy casualties in doing so. Overnight the mayor or Sumy reported that an ammonia tank in an industrial area on the northern edge of was damaged by Russian artillery fire and has created a hazard zone about 5km in diameter. Wind currently is away from the city. Russia propaganda had been claiming over the past several days that Ukraine was going to launch its own chemical attack from this very same facility.
Russian forces are pressing an attack northward from Okhtyrka towards Lebedyn, a move that could isolate Sumy.
Also increased Russian attacks southwards towards the northern Dombass region with a lot of air support (first apparent coordinated ground support). Appears to be attempting to join up with a parallel push northward out of Dombass.
Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Things have become desperate in Mariupol with intense street fighting ongoing. Some are beginning to liken it to Stalingrad.
Russia’s Defense Ministry says Ukraine had until 5am on March 21 to surrender the besieged city of Mariupol, adding it’ll let residents and troops who lay down arms leave. Anyone left behind “with the bandits” will “face a military tribunal.” via RIA
Ukraine rejected Russia’s demand to surrender Mariupol
Russia is being accused of forcing refugees to go into Russia and are” housing” them in what Ukrainian (propaganda) call ‘concentration camps). Russia has made a precedent of concentrating civilians in a similar manner in both Chechnya and Syria.
Observers/analysts see a deliberate Russian brutality towards Mariupol on two points. 1) Mariupol resisted separatists in 2014 and Russia wants to punish them for that and 2) surrender of the city could free up as many as 3 BTGs to be redirected in a northward assault out of Dombass into the heart of eastern Ukraine defenses.
Russian attacks have been supported by naval gunfire.
Increased attacks northward out of Dombass region towards Lysychansk in a potential effort to link up with southward movements from the northern front.
Russian officials confirmed that the Deputy Commander of the Black Sea Fleet for military-political affairs, Captain of the 1st Rank Andrei Paly (born and raised in Kyiv) was killed in Mariupol.
OBSERVATION - Russian actions are going well beyond war crimes levels in Mariupol. Sadly those directing the bombing on civilians and forced displacement will never come to trial. Mariupol will not be able to hold out much longer and the presence of Chechen thugs will make life for the survivors a literal hell.
Crimea Front -
Russian offensive towards Kryvyi Rih still being contested by Ukraine forces.
Ukraine forces continue their offensive towards Kherson. Civilian casualties reported after Russian troops opened fire on protest in Kherson.
Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg
OUTLOOK -
Overnight actions indicate Russia is finally trying to restore the initiative by conducting offensive actions in several fronts. I am concerned about attacks in four areas.
- First being Russian bypassing and tentatively surrounding Chernihiv. Ukrainian forces in this area have been successful in taking/keeping pressure off of Kyiv.
- Second area is the area between North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) and the Dombass Front. This region is logistically far from Ukraine resupply and likely has low stocks of ATGMs and ADA MANPAD systems, making Russian attacks more of a combined arms action than seen elsewhere so far. Attacks here may be intended to join up with a push being made to Kryvyi Rih and beyond.
- Third is the battle for Mariupol. This is developing into a Stalingrad stand that has the potential to badly maul Russian forces and kill thousands of civilians. The fight will go on as long as Ukraine has the energy and stamina. I can’t see the city holding out for much longer, but then they’ve been holding out for several weeks. Russian / chechen brutality will be at the highest here and Ukraine will respond with a no holds barred, take no prisoners. As I noted above, some thing that the surrender of Mariupol could free up as many as 3 BTGs. This would stress Ukraine forces holding the line.
- Fourth and finally, the Russia push on Kryvyi Rih. A successful push in this direction could be the start of a greater encirclement of Ukraine forces facing the Dombass front.
The overall key to any Russian success in these areas are Russian planning and logistics. The first three appear to have secured their logistic lines better than other areas. The Kryvyi Rih push faces getting cut off by Ukraine counter attack toward Kherson. Do these russian forces have the leadership and coordination to pull this out? That remains to be seen, but if they’ve been restocked, they could push about 90 miles before logistics issues strike again.
Air attacks will continue with likely greater intensity, relying on cruse missiles to target residential areas of major cities like Kyiv, Mariupol, Khariv, etc. Russian close air support will continue to suffer at the hands of the abundant, shoulder fired SAMs that take several jets out every day as well as numerous helicopters.
The most serious concern is if Russia decides to directly attack western supply operations. Rhetoric from Moscow increasingly suggests that Russia may attack NATO countries supplying arms and munitions.
WILDCARD - Belarus invasion in far west Ukraine.
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Belarus -
See discussion under Ukraine
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Europe / NATO General -
The EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell says that what is happening in Mariupol is a “massive war crime”.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told NBC’s “Meet the Press” that the meeting in Brussels is a show of unity intended to send a message to Putin:
“We haven’t yet decided on the exact format of that summit. It will take place on Thursday...with President Biden and all the other leaders,” Stoltenberg said. “And I think the meeting of all heads of state and government in NATO will provide us yet another platform to demonstrate our unity, our support to Ukraine, but also our readiness to protect and defend all NATO allies.
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Israel -
Israeli defense sources report several intel warnings that suggest Iran intends to carry out attacks via air, at sea & on land.
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Saudi Arabia -
The Biden administration has transferred a significant number of Patriot antimissile interceptors to Saudi Arabia, fulfilling an urgent request from the kingdom that has become a point of contention in relations between Washington and Riyadh, according to reports.
Senior US officials told reporters on Sunday that the weapons systems were sent to Saudi Arabia in recent weeks, which the kingdom had been requesting since late last year to fend off missile and drone attacks by Yemen’s Houthi group
The Saudi-led coalition said early on Sunday that Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi group launched missile and drone strikes on energy and water desalination facilities in the kingdom that caused some material damage but no deaths.
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Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -
Taliban IEA (Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan) government is forming an army. This force won’t be as large as the former IRA (Islamic Republic of Afghanistan) force, which had a paper strength of 300,000 and was subsidized by the Americans.
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Globalism / Great Reset -
biden - “You know we are in an inflection point, I believe, in the world economy” he said, “Not just the economy, the world. It occurs every three or four generations. As one of the top military people said to me in a secure meeting the other day, 60 million people died between 1900 and 1946 and since then we established a liberal world order and that hadn’t happened in a long while. Lot of people dying [now], but nowhere near the chaos. And now’s the time when things are shifting. There’s gonna be a new world order out there, and we’ve gotta lead it. And we’ve gotta unite the rest of the world in doing it.
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Wuhan virus -
Biden regime’s DOJ apparently needs to hire at least four new tort lawyers to help with vaccine injury cases against HHS — according to a new job posting on the federal government’s official hiring site USAJOBS.
The BA.2 variant has caused a rise of COVD-19 cases in Europe and experts say a similar pattern may be coming to the U.S. And the most vulnerable group are those over 65.
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Economy -
The Biden administration backtracked on reports that it is resuming the federal oil and gas leasing program in light of a recent appeals court decision.
On Friday, Reuters reported that the Department of the Interior (DOI), the agency tasked with overseeing the leasing program, was planning to resume the previously-delayed program. But a DOI spokesperson pushed back on the report, saying it overstated the administration’s position that it would begin planning the next steps, not that it had already resumed the program.
“The article overstates our next steps (we did not say we were resuming leasing but instead the planning),” Melissa Schwartz, the Interior spokesperson, told the Daily Caller News Foundation in an email.
Powell said Monday that “inflation is much too high’ and pledged to take “necessary steps” to bring prices under control. He noted rate hikes could go from the traditional 25 basis point moves to more aggressive 50 basis point increases if necessary. The comments come less than a week after the Fed raised interest rates for the first time since 2018.
OBSERVATION - This more aggressive view reflects the stance I reported a few days ago where St. Louis Federal Reserve president James Bullard on Friday called for a dramatic increase in the Fed’s overnight lending rate.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -
The United States will deploy a Stryker armored-vehicle infantry company for a NATO battle group being established in Bulgaria as the Western alliance moves to shore up its eastern flank in the face of Russian aggression in the region. The announcement came during a March 19 joint news conference with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Bulgarian Prime Minister Kiril Petkov. “The USA agreed to provide a Stryker company. This is a strong sign to all of our allies in NATO,” Petkov said.
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Cyber Warfare -
Biden says there is “evolving intelligence” that Russia is exploring options for potential cyberattacks against U.S., urges private sector to harden their cyber defenses immediately - statement If Russia launches a cyber attack it will likely either target infrastructure, logistical capabilities, or financial services.
OBSERVATION - This warning has been out there for over a month now. Given Putin’s increasing frustration and desperation over the progress of the Ukraine operation, he may use a cyber attack to strike back at the US and other countries supporting Ukraine.
US policy is that such would be a direct act of war.
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Japan -
Russian Foreign Ministry: Russia exits talks to negotiate a peace treaty with Japan. Revoking visa-free regime for Japanese citizens at southern Kuril islands. Exits dialogue on southern Kuril islands
Japan reacted angrily on Tuesday after Russia withdrew from peace treaty talks with Japan and froze joint economic projects related to the disputed Kuril islands because of sanctions imposed by Tokyo over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Russia and Japan have still not formally ended World War Two hostilities because of the standoff over islands just off Japan’s northernmost island of Hokkaido, known in Russia as the Kurils and in Japan as the Northern Territories. The islands were seized by the Soviet Union at the end of World War Two.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Ukraine still stands now entering the 4th week of war.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Could be seeing the start of Russia trying to switch the momentum via a series of attacks.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 100% of the combat force that Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, It is becoming more and more apparent Russia has been scrambling to get more combat forces into theater and support those already committed.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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The US has been unable to determine if Russia has designated a top, theatre-wide military commander responsible for leading the war in Ukraine. Without a top commander on the ground in or near Ukraine, units from different Russian military districts operating in different parts of Ukraine appear to be competing for resources rather than coordinating their efforts, per two US defense officials.
US officials also note that Russian high command have been relying on unsecure comms methods. Reportedly special ‘teams’ have been sent to address this.
It has already been confirmed that at lower statical levels Russian units are using off the shelf radios and cell phones that are insecure.
OBSERVATION - Both sides have exploited unsecure comms - so far Ukraine has been more successful at it. Early war reports indicated that smaller Russian tactical units were unable to maintain comms with higher headquarters - leading to tactical blunders. So far it appears that this hasn’t been sufficiently remedied.
If armies are ‘competing for resources’ then it is very apparent that Russian operations are going to breakdown quickly.
RUMINT -
I classify as such since the claim has been made that the site was hacked. Komsomolskaya Pravda, a pro-Kremlin tabloid, reportedly”leaked” Russian MOD casualty figures, 9,861 KIA, 16,153 WIA. The article was pulled shortly thereafter, however the numbers mirror US/UK estimates. Ukraine says there have been 15,000 Russian casualties.
MORE RUMINT - Some Chechen units have to some extent have been pulled out due to high casualties.
Russia still trying to reinforce the war effort -
- Russia has deployed more ground forces in southern Belarus, just 18 miles from Ukraine’s border, per overhead imagery in the Belorussian city of Dublin. (source imagery - Maxar)
NOTE - These are likely forces that have been brought in from Eastern Military districts and being assembled there to link up with equipment before committed to the fight. Location provides access to the Kyiv front sector.
- Russia has used roughly 75 percent of its battalion tactical group capacity in Ukraine according to a senior U.S. defense official
Russia has also committed more than 60 percent of fixed wing and rotary wing capability into the fight in Ukraine, the official said.
NOTE - The 75% level was identified prior to the start of the war.
Economic Impacts -
- Major Russian tank factory is shut down due to lack of parts.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 29th show a warming trend into the 50’s . Rain is forecast in the upcoming week. Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .
RUNINT -
Something to keep an eye on though. Poland has begun preparations to counter a possible attack by Russia, Ukrainian ambassador says per Ukrainian media. Very possibly propaganda, however Russia has threatened attacks of some sort and US has deployed Patriot systems to protect a key Polish airbase. Therefore it appears that the overall threat is reasonable.
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Russia had increased air sorties over the past two days, carrying out as many as 300 over a 24-hour period. This follows a pattern where Monday sees higher numbers of sorties, declining over the rest of the week.
Reports of numerous Russian saboteurs in Kyiv and other areas of Ukraine. Curfews being instituted to get folks off the street and allow operations to locate and eliminate these teams.
Kyiv front -
U.S. and British officials say Kyiv remains Russia’s primary objective in the war. Russia has managed push close enough to start using its artillery to bombard the city in a war of attrition. That artillery movement forward appears to be the current objective of the Russian army. Cruse missiles struck portions of the town overnight. Flooded terrain in the vicinity of Irpin have rendered about half of the front unnavigable.
Ukrainian troops forced Russian troops out of the Kyiv suburb of Makariv after a fierce battle, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said. The regained territory allowed Ukrainian forces to retake control of a key highway and block Russian troops from surrounding Kyiv from the northwest. It also serves to cut off the southern tip of the Russian salient.
Russian forces were able to partially take other northwest suburbs, Bucha, Hostomel and Irpin.
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Russian forces appear to have partially encircled Chernihiv and are continuing to hammer the city with a lot of artillery and bombs. The encirclement move currently seems to be a very road bound move to the southeast and is being contested by Ukraine forces. Russian forces did not conduct any ground operations directly against Chernihiv. Ukraine military assesses that the Russian forces in the area are trying to regroup and re-arm for a renewed push on Kyiv, but logistic support for such an operation are still lacking.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Continued Russian efforts to isolate Sumy and Khariv, but sustaining heavy casualties in doing so.
Ukrainian forces halted a Russian attack toward Brovary (a northeastern suburb of Kyiv) and inflicted heavy casualties as of noon local time on March 21. This is the tip of a very road bound advance from the Sumy area.
Russian social media sources confirmed on March 20 that Ukrainian forces killed a Russian Colonel (regimental commander) near Kharkiv on March 15.
Russian offensive pushing southward toward the Dombass region is beginning to stall out.
No word on the ammonia leak at a Sumy industrial facility created by Russian artillery.
Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Things have become desperate in Mariupol with intense street fighting ongoing. Some are likening it to Stalingrad.
Russia is slowly decreasing the area under Ukraine control, but facing difficult street by street, house to house fighting. Russia continued indiscriminate bombing/shelling of civilian areas.
Ukraine forces did successfully use an ATGM to target, hit and disable a Russian gunboat off Mariupol.
Separatist have increased the age of forced conscription to 65 and are arming them with old WW2 weapons.
Russian and Separatist forces in Luhansk Oblast slowed their attacks. Luhansk is the area between the Dombass and southern Northeastern Front - in the southeastern corner of Ukraine. Russia utilized a lot of air power in the area over the past couple days in area. Conflict in this area is still intense and the situation is fluid, but it seems Russian push has been stalled.
Russian officials confirmed that the Deputy Commander of the Black Sea Fleet for military-political affairs, Captain of the 1st Rank Andrei Paly (born and raised in Kyiv) was killed in Mariupol.
OBSERVATION - Russian actions are going well beyond war crimes levels in Mariupol. Sadly those directing the bombing on civilians and forced displacement will never come to trial. Mariupol will not be able to hold out much longer and the presence of Chechen thugs will make life for the survivors a literal hell.
Crimea Front -
Russian offensive towards Kryvyi Rih still being contested by Ukraine forces and has apparently stalled.
Ukraine forces continue their offensive towards Kherson. New Planet satellite imagery from March 21st of Kherson airbase seems to indicate its been emptied of any functional military aircraft and the wrecks have been moved.
Civilian protests in Kherson and Zaporizhiya Oblasts appear to be forcing Russia to deploy Rosgvardia forces to quell protests. Rising resistance in Russian-occupied territory will likely force Russia to deploy additional forces to rear area security, further weakening the combat power available for offensive operations.
US intel notes Russian naval movements in the Black Sea, but they are not indicative of an impending amphibious operation.
It is further believed that Russian marine forces are being diverted to the fight for Mariupol, further reducing the capabiity of an amphibious assault near Odessa.
Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg
OUTLOOK -
Repetitious but factual - Expect more indiscriminate artillery and bombing of civilian areas to demoralize the population and eliminate the will to resist.
After aggressive Russian operations over the past 48 hours, Russia was unable to make any substantial break out and are once again bogging down. Increasing use of alternative stand-off weapons, in this case the using ship to ship missiles against ground targets further raises the question on how thin Russia’s supplies are getting.
Reinforcement/replacement forces Russia is bringing in are assessed as being even more poorly trained, prepared and equipped than the forces currently committed. This includes Belarusian forces. As noted under Russia above, it has already committed the large majority of its forces, leaving very little left to bring in. A Belarusian attack will only cause a minor worry and absent significant Russian support will quickly be defeated.
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Belarus -
There are reports that NATO believes that Belarus is Preparing a Justification to begin an Offensive South into Ukraine, the Belarusian Military until now has only Supported Russian Forces, NATO also believes that the Deployment of Russian Nuclear Weapons into Belarus is Imminent
OBSERVATION - I’ve noted the observed build up and movement of Belarusian forces in the southwestern corner of the country.
The deployment of Russian nuclear weapons is a follow on to the recent Belorussian constitution change that allowed for such placement by Russia.. Goal of nuclear weapon placement would be to deter any attacks against Belarus.
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Europe / NATO General -
Preparations and political maneuvering continue for the NATO summit later this week.
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