Replies

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Globalism / Great Reset -

biden - “You know we are in an inflection point, I believe, in the world economy” he said, “Not just the economy, the world. It occurs every three or four generations. As one of the top military people said to me in a secure meeting the other day, 60 million people died between 1900 and 1946 and since then we established a liberal world order and that hadn’t happened in a long while. Lot of people dying [now], but nowhere near the chaos. And now’s the time when things are shifting. There’s gonna be a new world order out there, and we’ve gotta lead it. And we’ve gotta unite the rest of the world in doing it.
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Wuhan virus -

Biden regime’s DOJ apparently needs to hire at least four new tort lawyers to help with vaccine injury cases against HHS — according to a new job posting on the federal government’s official hiring site USAJOBS.

The BA.2 variant has caused a rise of COVD-19 cases in Europe and experts say a similar pattern may be coming to the U.S. And the most vulnerable group are those over 65.

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Economy -

The Biden administration backtracked on reports that it is resuming the federal oil and gas leasing program in light of a recent appeals court decision.
On Friday, Reuters reported that the Department of the Interior (DOI), the agency tasked with overseeing the leasing program, was planning to resume the previously-delayed program. But a DOI spokesperson pushed back on the report, saying it overstated the administration’s position that it would begin planning the next steps, not that it had already resumed the program.
“The article overstates our next steps (we did not say we were resuming leasing but instead the planning),” Melissa Schwartz, the Interior spokesperson, told the Daily Caller News Foundation in an email.

Powell said Monday that “inflation is much too high’ and pledged to take “necessary steps” to bring prices under control. He noted rate hikes could go from the traditional 25 basis point moves to more aggressive 50 basis point increases if necessary. The comments come less than a week after the Fed raised interest rates for the first time since 2018.
OBSERVATION - This more aggressive view reflects the stance I reported a few days ago where St. Louis Federal Reserve president James Bullard on Friday called for a dramatic increase in the Fed’s overnight lending rate.

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Strategic Activity / Deployments -

The United States will deploy a Stryker armored-vehicle infantry company for a NATO battle group being established in Bulgaria as the Western alliance moves to shore up its eastern flank in the face of Russian aggression in the region. The announcement came during a March 19 joint news conference with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Bulgarian Prime Minister Kiril Petkov. “The USA agreed to provide a Stryker company. This is a strong sign to all of our allies in NATO,” Petkov said.

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Cyber Warfare -

Biden says there is “evolving intelligence” that Russia is exploring options for potential cyberattacks against U.S., urges private sector to harden their cyber defenses immediately - statement If Russia launches a cyber attack it will likely either target infrastructure, logistical capabilities, or financial services.
OBSERVATION - This warning has been out there for over a month now. Given Putin’s increasing frustration and desperation over the progress of the Ukraine operation, he may use a cyber attack to strike back at the US and other countries supporting Ukraine.
US policy is that such would be a direct act of war.
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Japan -
Russian Foreign Ministry: Russia exits talks to negotiate a peace treaty with Japan. Revoking visa-free regime for Japanese citizens at southern Kuril islands. Exits dialogue on southern Kuril islands

Japan reacted angrily on Tuesday after Russia withdrew from peace treaty talks with Japan and froze joint economic projects related to the disputed Kuril islands because of sanctions imposed by Tokyo over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Russia and Japan have still not formally ended World War Two hostilities because of the standoff over islands just off Japan’s northernmost island of Hokkaido, known in Russia as the Kurils and in Japan as the Northern Territories. The islands were seized by the Soviet Union at the end of World War Two.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Ukraine still stands now entering the 4th week of war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Could be seeing the start of Russia trying to switch the momentum via a series of attacks.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 100% of the combat force that Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, It is becoming more and more apparent Russia has been scrambling to get more combat forces into theater and support those already committed.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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The US has been unable to determine if Russia has designated a top, theatre-wide military commander responsible for leading the war in Ukraine. Without a top commander on the ground in or near Ukraine, units from different Russian military districts operating in different parts of Ukraine appear to be competing for resources rather than coordinating their efforts, per two US defense officials.
US officials also note that Russian high command have been relying on unsecure comms methods. Reportedly special ‘teams’ have been sent to address this.
It has already been confirmed that at lower statical levels Russian units are using off the shelf radios and cell phones that are insecure.
OBSERVATION - Both sides have exploited unsecure comms - so far Ukraine has been more successful at it. Early war reports indicated that smaller Russian tactical units were unable to maintain comms with higher headquarters - leading to tactical blunders. So far it appears that this hasn’t been sufficiently remedied.
If armies are ‘competing for resources’ then it is very apparent that Russian operations are going to breakdown quickly.

RUMINT -
I classify as such since the claim has been made that the site was hacked. Komsomolskaya Pravda, a pro-Kremlin tabloid, reportedly”leaked” Russian MOD casualty figures, 9,861 KIA, 16,153 WIA. The article was pulled shortly thereafter, however the numbers mirror US/UK estimates. Ukraine says there have been 15,000 Russian casualties.
MORE RUMINT - Some Chechen units have to some extent have been pulled out due to high casualties.

Russia still trying to reinforce the war effort -
- Russia has deployed more ground forces in southern Belarus, just 18 miles from Ukraine’s border, per overhead imagery in the Belorussian city of Dublin. (source imagery - Maxar)
NOTE - These are likely forces that have been brought in from Eastern Military districts and being assembled there to link up with equipment before committed to the fight. Location provides access to the Kyiv front sector.
- Russia has used roughly 75 percent of its battalion tactical group capacity in Ukraine according to a senior U.S. defense official
Russia has also committed more than 60 percent of fixed wing and rotary wing capability into the fight in Ukraine, the official said.
NOTE - The 75% level was identified prior to the start of the war.

Economic Impacts -
- Major Russian tank factory is shut down due to lack of parts.
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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 29th show a warming trend into the 50’s . Rain is forecast in the upcoming week. Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .

RUNINT -
Something to keep an eye on though. Poland has begun preparations to counter a possible attack by Russia, Ukrainian ambassador says per Ukrainian media. Very possibly propaganda, however Russia has threatened attacks of some sort and US has deployed Patriot systems to protect a key Polish airbase. Therefore it appears that the overall threat is reasonable.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Russia had increased air sorties over the past two days, carrying out as many as 300 over a 24-hour period. This follows a pattern where Monday sees higher numbers of sorties, declining over the rest of the week.

Reports of numerous Russian saboteurs in Kyiv and other areas of Ukraine. Curfews being instituted to get folks off the street and allow operations to locate and eliminate these teams.

Kyiv front -
U.S. and British officials say Kyiv remains Russia’s primary objective in the war. Russia has managed push close enough to start using its artillery to bombard the city in a war of attrition. That artillery movement forward appears to be the current objective of the Russian army. Cruse missiles struck portions of the town overnight. Flooded terrain in the vicinity of Irpin have rendered about half of the front unnavigable.
Ukrainian troops forced Russian troops out of the Kyiv suburb of Makariv after a fierce battle, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said. The regained territory allowed Ukrainian forces to retake control of a key highway and block Russian troops from surrounding Kyiv from the northwest. It also serves to cut off the southern tip of the Russian salient.
Russian forces were able to partially take other northwest suburbs, Bucha, Hostomel and Irpin.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Russian forces appear to have partially encircled Chernihiv and are continuing to hammer the city with a lot of artillery and bombs. The encirclement move currently seems to be a very road bound move to the southeast and is being contested by Ukraine forces. Russian forces did not conduct any ground operations directly against Chernihiv. Ukraine military assesses that the Russian forces in the area are trying to regroup and re-arm for a renewed push on Kyiv, but logistic support for such an operation are still lacking.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Continued Russian efforts to isolate Sumy and Khariv, but sustaining heavy casualties in doing so.
Ukrainian forces halted a Russian attack toward Brovary (a northeastern suburb of Kyiv) and inflicted heavy casualties as of noon local time on March 21. This is the tip of a very road bound advance from the Sumy area.
Russian social media sources confirmed on March 20 that Ukrainian forces killed a Russian Colonel (regimental commander) near Kharkiv on March 15.
Russian offensive pushing southward toward the Dombass region is beginning to stall out.
No word on the ammonia leak at a Sumy industrial facility created by Russian artillery.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Things have become desperate in Mariupol with intense street fighting ongoing. Some are likening it to Stalingrad.
Russia is slowly decreasing the area under Ukraine control, but facing difficult street by street, house to house fighting. Russia continued indiscriminate bombing/shelling of civilian areas.
Ukraine forces did successfully use an ATGM to target, hit and disable a Russian gunboat off Mariupol.
Separatist have increased the age of forced conscription to 65 and are arming them with old WW2 weapons.

Russian and Separatist forces in Luhansk Oblast slowed their attacks. Luhansk is the area between the Dombass and southern Northeastern Front - in the southeastern corner of Ukraine. Russia utilized a lot of air power in the area over the past couple days in area. Conflict in this area is still intense and the situation is fluid, but it seems Russian push has been stalled.

Russian officials confirmed that the Deputy Commander of the Black Sea Fleet for military-political affairs, Captain of the 1st Rank Andrei Paly (born and raised in Kyiv) was killed in Mariupol.

OBSERVATION - Russian actions are going well beyond war crimes levels in Mariupol. Sadly those directing the bombing on civilians and forced displacement will never come to trial. Mariupol will not be able to hold out much longer and the presence of Chechen thugs will make life for the survivors a literal hell.

Crimea Front -
Russian offensive towards Kryvyi Rih still being contested by Ukraine forces and has apparently stalled.
Ukraine forces continue their offensive towards Kherson. New Planet satellite imagery from March 21st of Kherson airbase seems to indicate its been emptied of any functional military aircraft and the wrecks have been moved.
Civilian protests in Kherson and Zaporizhiya Oblasts appear to be forcing Russia to deploy Rosgvardia forces to quell protests. Rising resistance in Russian-occupied territory will likely force Russia to deploy additional forces to rear area security, further weakening the combat power available for offensive operations.

US intel notes Russian naval movements in the Black Sea, but they are not indicative of an impending amphibious operation.
It is further believed that Russian marine forces are being diverted to the fight for Mariupol, further reducing the capabiity of an amphibious assault near Odessa.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -

Repetitious but factual - Expect more indiscriminate artillery and bombing of civilian areas to demoralize the population and eliminate the will to resist.

After aggressive Russian operations over the past 48 hours, Russia was unable to make any substantial break out and are once again bogging down. Increasing use of alternative stand-off weapons, in this case the using ship to ship missiles against ground targets further raises the question on how thin Russia’s supplies are getting.

Reinforcement/replacement forces Russia is bringing in are assessed as being even more poorly trained, prepared and equipped than the forces currently committed. This includes Belarusian forces. As noted under Russia above, it has already committed the large majority of its forces, leaving very little left to bring in. A Belarusian attack will only cause a minor worry and absent significant Russian support will quickly be defeated.

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Belarus -

There are reports that NATO believes that Belarus is Preparing a Justification to begin an Offensive South into Ukraine, the Belarusian Military until now has only Supported Russian Forces, NATO also believes that the Deployment of Russian Nuclear Weapons into Belarus is Imminent
OBSERVATION - I’ve noted the observed build up and movement of Belarusian forces in the southwestern corner of the country.

The deployment of Russian nuclear weapons is a follow on to the recent Belorussian constitution change that allowed for such placement by Russia.. Goal of nuclear weapon placement would be to deter any attacks against Belarus.

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Europe / NATO General -

Preparations and political maneuvering continue for the NATO summit later this week.

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Globalism / Great Reset -

In a recent WEF’s latest report - warning of an impending food crisis kicked off by the war in Ukraine.
Key points:
* More people around the world will go hungry as a result of the pandemic, high fuel prices and the conflict in Ukraine.
* Russia and Ukraine are also major producers and suppliers of fertilizers and their raw materials.
* Existing logistical issues with moving grain and food are likely to worsen.
* Disruptions will put further pressure on this year’s harvest and lead to higher food prices.
* Even before the pandemic, the FAO estimated that 690 million people or 9% of the world’s population, were facing food insecurity.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) proposed rules Monday that would force companies to publicly disclose a wide-range of climate-related information.
“I am pleased to support today’s proposal because, if adopted, it would provide investors with consistent, comparable, and decision-useful information for making their investment decisions, and it would provide consistent and clear reporting obligations for issuers,” SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, who President Joe Biden appointed in February 2021, said in a statement.
The SEC, would require publicly-traded companies to disclose how “severe weather events and other natural conditions” may impact their business, under the proposed rules, according to an announcement.
OBSERVATION - This gives the GGR global warming arm a means to muscle firms into compliance with ‘international’ standards - without congress getting involved.

The United Nations secretary-general has called Australia a “holdout” after Scott Morrison refused to strengthen the nation’s 2030 emissions reduction target. António Guterres has used an address to a sustainability summit to take an extraordinary public swipe at Australia’s climate change efforts.
“A growing number of G20 developed economies have announced meaningful emissions reductions by 2030 – with a handful of holdouts, such as Australia,” he said. He said the Paris climate pact’s ambition of limiting global warming to 1.5C was “on life support” but there was still something that could save it.

Earlier this week, a Bloomberg article, written by economist Teresa Ghilarducci, recommends that families earning under $300,000 per year consider switching to public transportation, embracing a veggie diet, and “rethink those costly pet medical needs.” Ghilarducci and the far-left “New School for Social Research” she works for is affiliated with the World Economic Forum (WEF)
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Wuhan virus -

German MPs are debating the introduction of a law that would make vaccination against COVID-19 mandatory for all German citizens over 18. Most of those in favor blamed the unvaccinated for ongoing COVID cases and restrictions.

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Economy -

Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi joined “Mornings with Maria,” Tuesday and argued the risk of recession is “uncomfortably high” amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the spike in oil prices.
“It’s going to have to tighten monetary policy a lot more aggressively. Therefore, the risks of recession are now a lot higher… I’d put… the risk of recession now in the next 12 months, at least one in three… that’s uncomfortably high. “

NAR chief economist Larry Yun warning that “housing affordability continues to be a major challenge, as buyers are getting a double whammy: rising mortgage rates and sustained price increases,” BofA joins the chorus warning that last year’s housing euphoria is unlikely to repeat and this year will be a much more challenging year for the housing market given significant headwinds to affordability and ongoing supply-side challenges.
OBSERVATION - Bursting of the housing bubble may be the next domino to drop as our economy comes unraveled. Sky high fuel prices is already biting sales - food or fuel question - and those funds covering higher gas prices strips away funds for ever increasing housing prices and loans.

Oil prices rose on Wednesday as a reported drop in U.S. crude inventories increased concerns about tight global supplies amid the hit to Russian exports from economic sanctions. Brent crude futures climbed $1.77, or 1.53%, to $117.25 a barrel at 0443 GMT, after falling 14 cents in the previous session.
OBSERVATION - Volatility continues in the oil market

Hundreds of Chevron Corp. refinery workers in the San Francisco Bay Area went on strike Monday following a breakdown in talks between the oil major and the United Steelworkers (USW) union on a contract agreement.
OBSERVATION - This potentially will cause kalifornian prices to explode. By state law, only refineries in state can produce gasoline for state consumption - ZERO can be imported. The double whammy is that refineries are in the process of switching over to the summer blend - which commonly spikes prices until production is at full speed.

Much focus is on gasoline shortages and prices, but a more serous shortage is in the diesel realm. Supplies and stockpiles are noted to be very tight. Trucking and agriculture depend heavily upon diesel and any shortages will impact prices and even distribution of goods.

U.S. economic activity expanded at a slower rate in February and January’s expansion was slower than reported earlier, data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago showed Monday.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to 0.51 in February and January’s reading was revised down to 0.59 from the prior reading of 0.69.

America’s rapidly growing bird flu pandemic is going to deeply affect all of us at the grocery store. Over 12 million chickens and turkeys have been culled during this episode.
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Biden / Harris watch -

biden departed for Brussels today for tomorrow’s NATO meeting.
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Cyber Warfare -

The FBI on Tuesday warned energy companies to be on the lookout for unusual scanning activity from Russian IP addresses. In an alert, the FBI posted 140 IP addresses it has identified that have scanned five U.S. energy companies and at least 18 U.S. companies in other sectors, including the defense industrial base, financial services and information technology. ‘’While other U.S. critical infrastructure sectors have noticed abnormal scanning, the focus appears to be on entities within the energy sector,’’ the alert said.

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North Korea -

South Korea’s president-elect is clashing with the incumbent administration over North Korea’s multiple rocket launcher test. While Yoon Suk-yeol views it as a breach of an inter-Korean agreement, Seoul’s defense minister disagrees with his assessment

South Korea will be maintaining an enhanced readiness, especially in the Cyber sector, during this presidential transition.
President Moon recently stated that the current security situation on the Korean peninsula is “grave.”

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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Ukraine still stands after 4 weeks of war.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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The Pentagon: We have not observed a change in Russia’s nuclear behavior that requires activating deterrence plans.
Russia earlier has said that they would utilize nukes in the face of an ‘existential threat’. The definition of that ‘threat’ was left broad and relatively undefined.

Russia continues to try to tightly control news on the war. The Kremlin said that it is vital to create a new law that would jail journalists up to 15 years for spreading ‘false information’.

RUMINT -
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu removed Lieutenant General Vladislav Yershov from his duties and has been placed under house arrest.. He was the commander of the 6th Combined Arms Army of the country. According to preliminary data, 2,000 servicemen were missing from the 6th Army alone. Of these, about 180 people are conscript soldiers.

Follow up on casualties. 10,000 Russians killed is a ‘reasonable estimate’, a western official says. The figure briefly appeared on a pro-Kremlim website, possibly after being hacked, before being quickly deleted. The official added this would mean a further 30-40,000 wounded or incapacitated.

biden administration continues to warn about a Russian chemical attack to break the current stalemate.

Logistics - ‘
The Pentagon briefing yesterday indicated that frostbite was a major problem for the Russians. Similar, unconfirmed report, on Twitter of an intercepted phone call between an officer in Ukraine and a fellow officer in Russia where he states 50% of his unit suffering from frost bite. Not sure if the Pentagon was referencing the alleged interception. However, early photos of Russian POWs show them with totally inadequate has heterogeneous footwear. Combined with cold temperatures and wet/muddy conditions, conditions are ripe for foot issues as well as other cold weather injuries.
Shortages of other logistical essentials - food and water - have also created conditions of very low morale and even desertions.

Russia still trying to reinforce the war effort -
- Unconfirmed reports that Russia is deploying additional Naval Infantry from the Baltic and Northern fleets to Kharkiv and Izyum, in addition to attempting to restore the combat potential of previously deployed units.

Economic Impacts -
- The Biden administration is preparing new sanctions on most members of Russia’s State Duma, the lower house of parliament, as the U.S. continues its crackdown on Moscow over its ongoing war against Ukraine
- French energy giant TotalEnergies said Tuesday it has decided to halt all its purchases of Russian oil and petroleum products by the end of the year at the latest.
- Nestles has cease operations in Russia.
- Reuters removes TASS Russian news agency from its content marketplace
- Putin ordered government to receive payments for Russian natural gas from countries in “unfriendly countries list” in Russian Ruble

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Ukraine -

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

The fluidity of the conflict has been made evident over the past 24 hours. Ukraine forces have reportedly made advances on several key fronts, as detailed below. Note though, many of the actions are still only partially confirmed, there is evidence of a local swing in operations for Ukraine.

Where stalled and being entrenched defensively, Russian forces appear to be falling victim to land mines / IEDs.

According to multiple reports Starlink terminals have been used to connect Ukrainian recon drones’ ground stations with relevant artillery units to improve the effectiveness of available artillery (and likely for other purposes). SpaceX even sent a second load of Starlink Terminals with compatible batteries to keep them operating overnight and solar panels sufficient for their operation + battery recharging.

Kyiv front -
Situation has become very fluid.
Ukrainian reinforced their control of Kyiv suburb of Makariv . Ukrainian armed forces claim that they have cut the Russian supply lines to Bucha, Irpin and Hostomel near Kyiv. Bucha city council says that Russian military in Bucha, Irpen, and Hostomiel are surrounded. Ukrainian police reportedly patrolling Irpen once again.
OBSERVATION - If this is true, then the Russian push on Kyiv is in a precarious situation. Big on the list is the loss of ammo and fuel. Food would be dealt with by raiding local stores and residents. Some analysts are reluctant to endorse the Ukraine claims of encirclement, but evidenced is growing that Russians are in a precarious position.

Artillery continued to strike Kyiv overnight, targeting civilian areas.

Ukraine’s Kyiv Reservoir is spreading floodwaters near the Irpin River. This will make any Russian assault on Kyiv on this front even more difficult.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Russian forces moved to reinforces their attempts to encircle Chernihiv and are continuing to hammer the city with a lot of artillery and bombs. Russian forces did not conduct any ground operations directly against Chernihiv. Ukraine military assesses that the Russian forces in the area are trying to regroup and re-arm for a renewed push on Kyiv, but logistic support for such an operation are still lacking.
Russian forces in the area are increasingly becoming impacted by road mines and IEDs, adding to the woes of being picked off by ATGMs.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Continued Russian efforts to isolate Sumy and Khariv, but sustaining heavy casualties in doing so.
Russian continue to press toward Brovary and continues to be repulsed.

Russian offensive pushing southward toward the Dombass region is beginning to stall out.
No further word on the ammonia leak at a Sumy industrial facility created by Russian artillery.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Things continue desperate in Mariupol with intense street fighting ongoing. Some are likening it to Stalingrad.
Russia is slowly decreasing the area under Ukraine control, but facing difficult street by street, house to house fighting. Russia continued indiscriminate bombing/shelling of civilian areas. Russia has increased the number of naval vessels joining in the bombardment of the city.
Meanwhile, separatist / Russian forces are reinforcing the connection with forces from the Crimea front, further cutting the city off.
OBSERVATION - Russian actions are going well beyond war crimes levels in Mariupol. Sadly those directing the bombing on civilians and forced displacement will never come to trial. Mariupol will not be able to hold out much longer and the presence of Chechen thugs will make life for the survivors a literal hell.

Over the last 24 hours Russians have been firing into the city from the Sea of Azov from seven ships.

Russian and Separatist forces in Luhansk Oblast concentrated their efforts on capturing Rubizhne, Severodonetsk, Popasna, and Vugledar but were unsuccessful. The Ukrainian General Staff additionally stated Ukrainian forces inflicted heavy losses on a Russian attack on Marinka

Crimea Front -
Russian offensive towards Kryvyi Rih still being contested by Ukraine forces and has apparently stalled.
Ukraine forces continue their offensive towards Kherson. However, the pace has slowed and Ukraine may be working to consolidate their gains.
Ukrainian forces published a map on March 22 reportedly captured from Russian forces in Kherson Oblast on March 10.. The map reports Russia had about 10 battalion tactical groups (BTGs) from the 49th Combined Arms Army and 7th Airborne (VDV) Division operation on the Kherson axis in mid-March, in addition to supporting units from the 22nd Army Corps. Russian forces additionally reportedly had most of their command and control assets in the region stationed at the Kherson airport, which was struck by Ukrainian aircraft on March 15.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -

Repetitious but factual - Expect more indiscriminate artillery and bombing

Watching to see if the Ukraine actions to the northwest of Kyiv prove out to have encircled Russian forces. If that is the case, I don’t expect those Russian forces to hold out for long due to low morale combined with a lack of ammo and fuel stacked on top of it. This could develop into a major turning point in the battle for Kyiv.

After aggressive Russian operations over the past 48 hours, Russia was unable to make any substantial break out and are once again bogging down and are now facing Ukrainian counter attacks.

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Belarus -

Eyes are increasingly on the Southwestern corner of the country to see if the military build up there will result in an attack into Ukraine.
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Poland -

Dark smoke, believed to be due to the burning documents, was observed yesterday at the Russian embassy in Warsaw, Poland. Same thing happened in Kyiv the night before the invasion began.
This morning, Poland expelled 45 Russian diplomats for espionage:

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Europe / NATO General -

Finland and Sweden — neutral for decades — attended NATO’s emergency meeting after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and now seem poised to join the organization.

Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland are calling for a complete closure of roads for trucks coming from Russia and Belarus.
OBSERVATION - That would cut off Kaliningrad and potentially escalate things against these NATO countries by Russia. .

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announces the deployment of 4 new NATO battlegroups in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia. This is in addition to 4 NATO battleground already in the Baltic’s in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, as well as Poland, making 8 multinational battalion-sized battlegroups in total

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Israel -

Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, during the tripartite meeting with Sisi and Bin Zayed in Sharm El-Sheikh, discussed the possibility of the Assad government returning to the Arab League, stressing that Israel’s first interest is the withdrawal of Iranian forces from Syria, according to the Hebrew newspaper Israel Today reported.

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Iran -

U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price said on Tuesday that the onus is now on Iran on whether it is willing to enter into a mutual return to compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.
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