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Globalism / Great Reset -
In a recent WEF’s latest report - warning of an impending food crisis kicked off by the war in Ukraine.
Key points:
* More people around the world will go hungry as a result of the pandemic, high fuel prices and the conflict in Ukraine.
* Russia and Ukraine are also major producers and suppliers of fertilizers and their raw materials.
* Existing logistical issues with moving grain and food are likely to worsen.
* Disruptions will put further pressure on this year’s harvest and lead to higher food prices.
* Even before the pandemic, the FAO estimated that 690 million people or 9% of the world’s population, were facing food insecurity.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) proposed rules Monday that would force companies to publicly disclose a wide-range of climate-related information.
“I am pleased to support today’s proposal because, if adopted, it would provide investors with consistent, comparable, and decision-useful information for making their investment decisions, and it would provide consistent and clear reporting obligations for issuers,” SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, who President Joe Biden appointed in February 2021, said in a statement.
The SEC, would require publicly-traded companies to disclose how “severe weather events and other natural conditions” may impact their business, under the proposed rules, according to an announcement.
OBSERVATION - This gives the GGR global warming arm a means to muscle firms into compliance with ‘international’ standards - without congress getting involved.
The United Nations secretary-general has called Australia a “holdout” after Scott Morrison refused to strengthen the nation’s 2030 emissions reduction target. António Guterres has used an address to a sustainability summit to take an extraordinary public swipe at Australia’s climate change efforts.
“A growing number of G20 developed economies have announced meaningful emissions reductions by 2030 – with a handful of holdouts, such as Australia,” he said. He said the Paris climate pact’s ambition of limiting global warming to 1.5C was “on life support” but there was still something that could save it.
Earlier this week, a Bloomberg article, written by economist Teresa Ghilarducci, recommends that families earning under $300,000 per year consider switching to public transportation, embracing a veggie diet, and “rethink those costly pet medical needs.” Ghilarducci and the far-left “New School for Social Research” she works for is affiliated with the World Economic Forum (WEF)
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Wuhan virus -
German MPs are debating the introduction of a law that would make vaccination against COVID-19 mandatory for all German citizens over 18. Most of those in favor blamed the unvaccinated for ongoing COVID cases and restrictions.
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Economy -
Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi joined “Mornings with Maria,” Tuesday and argued the risk of recession is “uncomfortably high” amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the spike in oil prices.
“It’s going to have to tighten monetary policy a lot more aggressively. Therefore, the risks of recession are now a lot higher… I’d put… the risk of recession now in the next 12 months, at least one in three… that’s uncomfortably high. “
NAR chief economist Larry Yun warning that “housing affordability continues to be a major challenge, as buyers are getting a double whammy: rising mortgage rates and sustained price increases,” BofA joins the chorus warning that last year’s housing euphoria is unlikely to repeat and this year will be a much more challenging year for the housing market given significant headwinds to affordability and ongoing supply-side challenges.
OBSERVATION - Bursting of the housing bubble may be the next domino to drop as our economy comes unraveled. Sky high fuel prices is already biting sales - food or fuel question - and those funds covering higher gas prices strips away funds for ever increasing housing prices and loans.
Oil prices rose on Wednesday as a reported drop in U.S. crude inventories increased concerns about tight global supplies amid the hit to Russian exports from economic sanctions. Brent crude futures climbed $1.77, or 1.53%, to $117.25 a barrel at 0443 GMT, after falling 14 cents in the previous session.
OBSERVATION - Volatility continues in the oil market
Hundreds of Chevron Corp. refinery workers in the San Francisco Bay Area went on strike Monday following a breakdown in talks between the oil major and the United Steelworkers (USW) union on a contract agreement.
OBSERVATION - This potentially will cause kalifornian prices to explode. By state law, only refineries in state can produce gasoline for state consumption - ZERO can be imported. The double whammy is that refineries are in the process of switching over to the summer blend - which commonly spikes prices until production is at full speed.
Much focus is on gasoline shortages and prices, but a more serous shortage is in the diesel realm. Supplies and stockpiles are noted to be very tight. Trucking and agriculture depend heavily upon diesel and any shortages will impact prices and even distribution of goods.
U.S. economic activity expanded at a slower rate in February and January’s expansion was slower than reported earlier, data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago showed Monday.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to 0.51 in February and January’s reading was revised down to 0.59 from the prior reading of 0.69.
America’s rapidly growing bird flu pandemic is going to deeply affect all of us at the grocery store. Over 12 million chickens and turkeys have been culled during this episode.
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Biden / Harris watch -
biden departed for Brussels today for tomorrow’s NATO meeting.
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Cyber Warfare -
The FBI on Tuesday warned energy companies to be on the lookout for unusual scanning activity from Russian IP addresses. In an alert, the FBI posted 140 IP addresses it has identified that have scanned five U.S. energy companies and at least 18 U.S. companies in other sectors, including the defense industrial base, financial services and information technology. ‘’While other U.S. critical infrastructure sectors have noticed abnormal scanning, the focus appears to be on entities within the energy sector,’’ the alert said.
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North Korea -
South Korea’s president-elect is clashing with the incumbent administration over North Korea’s multiple rocket launcher test. While Yoon Suk-yeol views it as a breach of an inter-Korean agreement, Seoul’s defense minister disagrees with his assessment
South Korea will be maintaining an enhanced readiness, especially in the Cyber sector, during this presidential transition.
President Moon recently stated that the current security situation on the Korean peninsula is “grave.”
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Ukraine still stands after 4 weeks of war.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Could be seeing the start of Russia trying to switch the momentum via a series of attacks.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 100% of the combat force that Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, It is becoming more and more apparent Russia has been scrambling to get more combat forces into theater and support those already committed.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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The Pentagon: We have not observed a change in Russia’s nuclear behavior that requires activating deterrence plans.
Russia earlier has said that they would utilize nukes in the face of an ‘existential threat’. The definition of that ‘threat’ was left broad and relatively undefined.
Russia continues to try to tightly control news on the war. The Kremlin said that it is vital to create a new law that would jail journalists up to 15 years for spreading ‘false information’.
RUMINT -
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu removed Lieutenant General Vladislav Yershov from his duties and has been placed under house arrest.. He was the commander of the 6th Combined Arms Army of the country. According to preliminary data, 2,000 servicemen were missing from the 6th Army alone. Of these, about 180 people are conscript soldiers.
Follow up on casualties. 10,000 Russians killed is a ‘reasonable estimate’, a western official says. The figure briefly appeared on a pro-Kremlim website, possibly after being hacked, before being quickly deleted. The official added this would mean a further 30-40,000 wounded or incapacitated.
biden administration continues to warn about a Russian chemical attack to break the current stalemate.
Logistics - ‘
The Pentagon briefing yesterday indicated that frostbite was a major problem for the Russians. Similar, unconfirmed report, on Twitter of an intercepted phone call between an officer in Ukraine and a fellow officer in Russia where he states 50% of his unit suffering from frost bite. Not sure if the Pentagon was referencing the alleged interception. However, early photos of Russian POWs show them with totally inadequate has heterogeneous footwear. Combined with cold temperatures and wet/muddy conditions, conditions are ripe for foot issues as well as other cold weather injuries.
Shortages of other logistical essentials - food and water - have also created conditions of very low morale and even desertions.
Russia still trying to reinforce the war effort -
- Unconfirmed reports that Russia is deploying additional Naval Infantry from the Baltic and Northern fleets to Kharkiv and Izyum, in addition to attempting to restore the combat potential of previously deployed units.
Economic Impacts -
- The Biden administration is preparing new sanctions on most members of Russia’s State Duma, the lower house of parliament, as the U.S. continues its crackdown on Moscow over its ongoing war against Ukraine
- French energy giant TotalEnergies said Tuesday it has decided to halt all its purchases of Russian oil and petroleum products by the end of the year at the latest.
- Nestles has cease operations in Russia.
- Reuters removes TASS Russian news agency from its content marketplace
- Putin ordered government to receive payments for Russian natural gas from countries in “unfriendly countries list” in Russian Ruble
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 29th show a warming trend into the 50’s . Rain is forecast in the upcoming week. Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
The fluidity of the conflict has been made evident over the past 24 hours. Ukraine forces have reportedly made advances on several key fronts, as detailed below. Note though, many of the actions are still only partially confirmed, there is evidence of a local swing in operations for Ukraine.
Where stalled and being entrenched defensively, Russian forces appear to be falling victim to land mines / IEDs.
According to multiple reports Starlink terminals have been used to connect Ukrainian recon drones’ ground stations with relevant artillery units to improve the effectiveness of available artillery (and likely for other purposes). SpaceX even sent a second load of Starlink Terminals with compatible batteries to keep them operating overnight and solar panels sufficient for their operation + battery recharging.
Kyiv front -
Situation has become very fluid.
Ukrainian reinforced their control of Kyiv suburb of Makariv . Ukrainian armed forces claim that they have cut the Russian supply lines to Bucha, Irpin and Hostomel near Kyiv. Bucha city council says that Russian military in Bucha, Irpen, and Hostomiel are surrounded. Ukrainian police reportedly patrolling Irpen once again.
OBSERVATION - If this is true, then the Russian push on Kyiv is in a precarious situation. Big on the list is the loss of ammo and fuel. Food would be dealt with by raiding local stores and residents. Some analysts are reluctant to endorse the Ukraine claims of encirclement, but evidenced is growing that Russians are in a precarious position.
Artillery continued to strike Kyiv overnight, targeting civilian areas.
Ukraine’s Kyiv Reservoir is spreading floodwaters near the Irpin River. This will make any Russian assault on Kyiv on this front even more difficult.
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Russian forces moved to reinforces their attempts to encircle Chernihiv and are continuing to hammer the city with a lot of artillery and bombs. Russian forces did not conduct any ground operations directly against Chernihiv. Ukraine military assesses that the Russian forces in the area are trying to regroup and re-arm for a renewed push on Kyiv, but logistic support for such an operation are still lacking.
Russian forces in the area are increasingly becoming impacted by road mines and IEDs, adding to the woes of being picked off by ATGMs.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Continued Russian efforts to isolate Sumy and Khariv, but sustaining heavy casualties in doing so.
Russian continue to press toward Brovary and continues to be repulsed.
Russian offensive pushing southward toward the Dombass region is beginning to stall out.
No further word on the ammonia leak at a Sumy industrial facility created by Russian artillery.
Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Things continue desperate in Mariupol with intense street fighting ongoing. Some are likening it to Stalingrad.
Russia is slowly decreasing the area under Ukraine control, but facing difficult street by street, house to house fighting. Russia continued indiscriminate bombing/shelling of civilian areas. Russia has increased the number of naval vessels joining in the bombardment of the city.
Meanwhile, separatist / Russian forces are reinforcing the connection with forces from the Crimea front, further cutting the city off.
OBSERVATION - Russian actions are going well beyond war crimes levels in Mariupol. Sadly those directing the bombing on civilians and forced displacement will never come to trial. Mariupol will not be able to hold out much longer and the presence of Chechen thugs will make life for the survivors a literal hell.
Over the last 24 hours Russians have been firing into the city from the Sea of Azov from seven ships.
Russian and Separatist forces in Luhansk Oblast concentrated their efforts on capturing Rubizhne, Severodonetsk, Popasna, and Vugledar but were unsuccessful. The Ukrainian General Staff additionally stated Ukrainian forces inflicted heavy losses on a Russian attack on Marinka
Crimea Front -
Russian offensive towards Kryvyi Rih still being contested by Ukraine forces and has apparently stalled.
Ukraine forces continue their offensive towards Kherson. However, the pace has slowed and Ukraine may be working to consolidate their gains.
Ukrainian forces published a map on March 22 reportedly captured from Russian forces in Kherson Oblast on March 10.. The map reports Russia had about 10 battalion tactical groups (BTGs) from the 49th Combined Arms Army and 7th Airborne (VDV) Division operation on the Kherson axis in mid-March, in addition to supporting units from the 22nd Army Corps. Russian forces additionally reportedly had most of their command and control assets in the region stationed at the Kherson airport, which was struck by Ukrainian aircraft on March 15.
US intel notes Russian naval movements in the Black Sea, but they are not indicative of an impending amphibious operation.
It is further believed that Russian marine forces are being diverted to the fight for Mariupol, further reducing the capability of an amphibious assault near Odessa.
Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg
OUTLOOK -
Repetitious but factual - Expect more indiscriminate artillery and bombing
Watching to see if the Ukraine actions to the northwest of Kyiv prove out to have encircled Russian forces. If that is the case, I don’t expect those Russian forces to hold out for long due to low morale combined with a lack of ammo and fuel stacked on top of it. This could develop into a major turning point in the battle for Kyiv.
After aggressive Russian operations over the past 48 hours, Russia was unable to make any substantial break out and are once again bogging down and are now facing Ukrainian counter attacks.
Reinforcement/replacement forces Russia is bringing in are assessed as being even more poorly trained, prepared and equipped than the forces currently committed. This includes Belarusian forces. As noted under Russia above, it has already committed the large majority of its forces, leaving very little left to bring in. A Belarusian attack will only cause a minor worry and absent significant Russian support will quickly be defeated.
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Belarus -
Eyes are increasingly on the Southwestern corner of the country to see if the military build up there will result in an attack into Ukraine.
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Poland -
Dark smoke, believed to be due to the burning documents, was observed yesterday at the Russian embassy in Warsaw, Poland. Same thing happened in Kyiv the night before the invasion began.
This morning, Poland expelled 45 Russian diplomats for espionage:
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Europe / NATO General -
Finland and Sweden — neutral for decades — attended NATO’s emergency meeting after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and now seem poised to join the organization.
Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland are calling for a complete closure of roads for trucks coming from Russia and Belarus.
OBSERVATION - That would cut off Kaliningrad and potentially escalate things against these NATO countries by Russia. .
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announces the deployment of 4 new NATO battlegroups in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia. This is in addition to 4 NATO battleground already in the Baltic’s in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, as well as Poland, making 8 multinational battalion-sized battlegroups in total
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Israel -
Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, during the tripartite meeting with Sisi and Bin Zayed in Sharm El-Sheikh, discussed the possibility of the Assad government returning to the Arab League, stressing that Israel’s first interest is the withdrawal of Iranian forces from Syria, according to the Hebrew newspaper Israel Today reported.
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Iran -
U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price said on Tuesday that the onus is now on Iran on whether it is willing to enter into a mutual return to compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.
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Holy heck Hanna, things have gotten out right crazy yesterday afternoon and over night. This will be a long post, please bear with me.
I totally expect this tempo to continue for some time.
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Wuhan virus -
In late March 2020, New Zealand recorded 5 cases of COVID-19 infection and immediately shut down everything, locked down borders and citizens, and instituted the most severe restrictions on formerly free citizens in global history. In late March 2022, New Zealand recorded 20,000 cases of COVID-19 infection (yesterday), and announces they are dropping almost all COVID restrictions, removing vaccination mandates and eliminating COVID passports.
The White House COVID Task Force is warning there won’t be enough vaccines to give people a fourth vaccine dose if Congress does not provide the “appropriate level of funding.”
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Economy -
House Democrats have introduced a bill that would provide monthly stimulus checks to Americans because of the high price of gas.
The bill would give Americans $100 a month and $100 per dependent for the rest of the year in any month where the national average is above $4 a gallon. It would be paid for by taxing the excess profits of large oil and gas companies.
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Biden / Harris watch -
biden has received no ‘bounce’ from his handling of the Ukraine crisis, according to recent polls.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -
A senior U.S. defense official said that Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is still considering the possibility of deploying additional American troops to NATO’s eastern flank in Europe
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China -
An “undisclosed lender” (a Chinese state owned bank?) has jumped the line on claims against Evergrande’s remaining piles of cash, seizing some $2 billion in deposits, including deposits pledged as security to international investors.
Unsurprisingly, a number of international investors are not pleased and preparing to sue.
The surprise revelation is set to ignite a legal battle between major international investors and the Chinese developer, which has more than $300bn in liabilities. Evergrande’s collapse, which represents the biggest debt restructuring in China’s history, comes as a slowdown in the real estate sector poses increasing financial and political risks to President Xi Jinping’s government.
Playing political favorites in how Evergrande’s financial carcass is carved up might play well in China, but it won’t make Chinese investment attractive in the future.
This is happening despite Beijing’s recent efforts prop up the real estate sector.
The Chinese real estate bubble is deflating and Beijing is proving unable to stop it.
OBSERVATION - The economic woes the Evergrande scandal and other property firms still pose a serious threat to China’s economy and Xi’s tenure as leader.
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North Korea -
North Korea tested an intercontinental ballistic missile - the new Hwasong-17, according to Yonhap. T he ICBM was fired on a lofted trajectory, according to the South Korean military and it landed 170km west of Aomori, inside of Japan’s exclusive economic zone, according to the Japanese Coast Guard.
The missile reached maximum altitude of at least 6,000km, or 3728 miles. The Japanese Vice Defense Minister says it flew higher than the 2017 Hwasong-15 test. For reference the ISS orbit is max 410km. Flight time was roughly an hour.
OBSERVATION - This ICBM was first revealed several months ago at a military parade. It is suspect that at least one of the recent shorter range tests involved a limited test of the Hwasong-17. This represents a missile with multiple warheads that can strike any point in North America north of Mexico City. Test probably also evaluated the re-entry components to protect the potential warheads. This new system expands NK’s nuclear projection capability.
RUMINT is that NK may follow up with a potential test of a prototype warhead - a major step in their nuclear program. Construction has been notes at the nuclear test site.
South Korea to the test, saying it stands ‘ready and capable’ of carrying out a precision missile strike on North Korea’s missile launch location and control system ‘if needed’
In response to the NK ICBM test, South Korea says it’s conducted tests of major missiles from the ground, sea, and air.
One Hyunmoo-II surface to surface missile was fired, one MGM-140 surface to surface missile was fired, a Haesong-II ship to ground missile, and two JDAM air to ground missiles, says the JCS.
OBSERVATION - IIRC this is the first time SK has responded in this manner to a NK missile test. This could mark a period of escalation of the arms race on the peninsula and potential conflict.
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Japan -
See NK above
OBSERVATION - If NK follows the ICBM test up with a nuclear test, Japan may finally decide to go nuclear as well.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin’s desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Could be seeing the start of Russia trying to switch the momentum via a series of attacks.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 100% of the combat force that Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, It is becoming more and more apparent Russia has been scrambling to get more combat forces into theater and support those already committed.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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The U.S. State Department said Russia has listed a number of its diplomats in Moscow as “persona non grata” and is in the process of having them expelled from the embassy.
The Russian foreign ministry on Monday said it was close to severing diplomatic relations with the U.S. - an unprecedented move - after complaining to U.S. Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan about President Biden’s characterization of Russian President Vladimir Putin as a “war criminal.”
Secretary of Defense Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Milley have attempted reaching out to top Russian military leaders but have so far been ignored, according to reporting from the Washington Post.
NOTE - this is the special ‘hot line’ meant to prevent missteps and misunderstandings between the two counties. Silence is not good.
Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the conflict in Ukraine by telephone with Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett on Wednesday, the Kremlin said in a statement.
The existence of Russia itself is at stake today - Head of Russian delegation at talks with Ukraine and former minister of culture Medinsky
****NOTE*****
Yesterday, Russia said that they would utilize nukes in the face of an ‘existential threat’.
Russia’s Ministry of Defense Head Sergei Shoigu reportedly missing, hasn’t made public appearances in 12 days. When asked about it, a source in the defense minister’s entourage told investigative outlet Agentstvo that he is unwell and has “heart problems.”” Shoigu is seen as one of Putin’s closest and most loyal allies.
OBSERVATION - This is HUGE, so much of the military effort is directed by Moscow the ‘loss’ of the senior general has likely caused the whole military planning and effort chain to seize up. It will further constipate Russian war efforts and cause more uncorrdianted
Another (formerly ) close ally of Putin - Putin advisor A. Chubais has quit and has left Russia (Bloomberg)
Vladimir Putin’s Russian Army has lost another commander - the 15th of Putin’s top military leaders to be killed as the country’s invasion of Ukraine heads into its second month.
Colonel Alexei Sharov became the latest high-ranking Russian official to die in what has become the country’s biggest loss of military higher-ups since World War II. His death was announced by Ukrainian armed forces on social media Tuesday.
The commander of the 810th Guards Separate Order of Zhukov Brigade in the Russian Marines, Sharov was reportedly killed in Mariupol.
NOTICE - There have been a lot of senior Russian officers killed in the Mariupol battle, to include recently the Russian Naval deputy commander of the Black Sea Fleet.
RUMINT -
According to Ukraine Intel, Russian Nat’l Guard prepares to block Kerch bridge, ferry & air connections. Since 24 Feb, panic has rising in Crimea, with Russian military, occupation administrations trying to leave.
Logistics - ‘
Based on US evaluation Russia still has “vast majority of their assembled available inventory of surface-to-air missiles&cruise missiles available to them...the thing that they are running the lowest on are air-launched cruise missiles...just over 50% of what they had assembled left”
Note. What this means is that Russia can continue to attack civilian targets with these munitions at the same pace for almost another month.
Russia still trying to reinforce the war effort -
NATO estimates up to 15,000 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine. That means in just one month, Moscow has potentially matched its number killed in decade-long Soviet war in Afghanistan in the 1980s
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 29th show a warming trend into the 50’s . Rain is forecast in the upcoming week. Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
The fluidity of the conflict has been made evident over the past 24 hours. It appears the stalemate of the past couple weeks is breaking, and Ukraine forces have reportedly made advances on several key fronts, as detailed below. Note though, many of the actions are still only partially confirmed, there is evidence of a local swing in operations for Ukraine.
Kyiv front -
Situation has become VERY fluid.
Over the past couple days there has been much discussion and analysis of Ukraine claims of being in the process of and actually cutting off Russian forces in the salient northwest of Kyiv. With new data coming in analysts see confirmation ion those claims. According to US defense officials, there is a realistic possibility that Ukrainian forces are now able to encircle Russian units in Bucha and Irpin.”
Ukraine forces are confirmed to be in Bucha, Irpin and Hostomel. Unconfirmed reports that Ukraine has almost taken back all of Irpin. Additionally Ukraine forces control Markariv and now Teterivske. Ukraine control of Teterivske is really bad news for the Russian forces west and north west of Kyiv. It poses a very serious threat to Russian supply lines. A link to a map of the situation is below.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOihPsvWYAAmAdR?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
OBSERVATION - This appears to be largely due to the Ukraine flank attack i noted back on post 197 (Mar 18th).
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4026005/posts?page=197#197
This is a devastating blow for any Russian offensive against Kyiv from this front. Russian forces don’t have the manpower or equipment to to reach Kyiv, let alone set siege or capture it.
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Russian forces continue to face set backs in this front, failing to both advance on Kyiv as well as to make any progress against Chernihiv . Russians are still trying to encircle Chernihiv and are eight to 10 kilometers away from the city centre. They are “stalled” and have ceded some ground in some places there. Chernihiv continues to face devistataing bombing and artillery fire on residential areas.
See North Eastern Front for more bad news for Russia
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Continued Russian efforts to isolate Sumy and Khariv, but sustaining heavy casualties in doing so.
Russian attack toward Brovary (and towards Kyiv) apparently has been crushed and Russian forces have been locally routed. Per US defense official, the Ukrainians have pushed the Russians back to about 55 kilometers east/northeast of Kyiv. This is a push back of 15-20 Km from previous positions. This essentially eliminates the Konotop and Sumy ‘finger’ assaults that have been stuck for a couple weeks now (See map link below - though it hasn’t been updated for this event).
OBSERVATION - This is extremely bad news for Russia for both this front as well as the Northern Front (Chernihv region ). Demonstrates that Russian forces are increasingly depleted and unable to hold captured ground for starters. Makes any effort to move on Kyiv from these fronts even more problematical if not impossible.
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Russian offensive pushing southward toward the Dombass region is beginning to stall out. See Eastern front for more details.
6 killed, 15 wounded as result of Russian army shelling on humanitarian aid delivery point at Nova Poshta post office on Akademika Pavlova Avenue in Kharkiv
Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Things continue desperate in Mariupol with intense street fighting ongoing. Some are likening it to Stalingrad.
Russia is slowly decreasing the area under Ukraine control, but facing difficult street by street, house to house fighting. Russia continued indiscriminate bombing/shelling of civilian areas. Russia has increased the number of naval vessels joining in the bombardment of the city.
OBSERVATION - Russian actions are going well beyond war crimes levels in Mariupol. Sadly those directing the bombing on civilians and forced displacement will never come to trial. Mariupol will not be able to hold out much longer and the presence of Chechen thugs will make life for the survivors a literal hell.
US intelligence officials are seeing indications that the Russians are starting to prioritize that part of of eastern Ukraine ,” referring to the Donbass area. I’ve noted efforts of attacks southward out of this front towards Izium (North Eastern Front from Khariv area) as well as north and westward attacks coming out of this front. After making some initial gains, these assaults have stalled out, though Russian forces continue to try to maintain the offensive initiative.
Russian naval forces have had a significant set back overnight. Russian Pr. 1171 (Alligator) LST “Orsk” unloading ammunition at the docks at the captured Ukrainan port of Berdyansk exploded overnight. Two Ropucha Class landing ships that were docked next to the Orsk were seen sailing away from fire with at least one (and possibly both) of the vessels with a fire on its deck. Damage to the dock at Berdyansk is unknown at present, but may have been seriously damaged. This port has been used to resupply the assault on Mariupol.
The cause of the explosion is still unknown. Unconfirmed reports that the ship was hit with a Tochka-U SRBM. Others view the cause as careless handling of munitions during unloading.
The Orsk has been confirmed to have been sunk. Alligator class are some of the oldest landing ships in the Russian navy and its loss reduces the number of amphibious ships in the Black Sea to 8. Damage to the U/I Ropucha class ships may further reduce Russian amphibious capability until they are repaired.
Crimea Front -
Russian offensives towards Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia are apparently stalled. The apparent goal of these assaults are to isolate Ukraine defenders in the Domabss region from support/resupply.
Heavy battles on the border of Kherson and Mykolaiv regions as the Ukraine counter offensive continues.
Bastion-P (P-800 Oniks / SS-N-26 STROBILE) supersonic missiles have been used against ground targets in Odessa. Typically anti ship missiles are being launched from land sites in Crimea.
Just released videos of the Turkish made TB-2 show how versatile it is. Besides a direct attack mode - most commonly seen in released videos, Ukraine is also using it to direct artillery fire. The attack by the Ukrainian army on Kherson Airport, TB-2 Bayraktar guided the attack at an altitude of 5800 meters and 48 km from the target. Russian military vehicles and positions where the TB2 laser-marked were hit successfully with artillery - multi-barrel rocket launchers.
Due to the loss of one and possible serious damage to two other amphibious assault ships at Berdyansk over night, the potential for an amphibious assault to encircle Odessa has dropped to near zero in the near term.
Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg
OUTLOOK -
Repetitious but factual - Expect more indiscriminate artillery and bombing
Ukrainan counteroffensive is securing Kyiv from Russian assaults from three fronts. It is unlikely that the current Russian forces are capable at this time to mount a counter attack to regain lost ground. I believe that Russia is incapable of being able to cut off Kyiv and siege it, let alone capture it with its present forces. Given the reportedly poor quality of the Russian forces that they are bringing into the theatre, those reinforcements will be incapable of accomplishing the goal of capturing Kyiv.
Russia looks to continue to push in the Dombass region but it doesen’t seem likely to make much more progress than they have.
The Crimea front doesn’t look capable of continuing offensive operations to push into the Dombass region or encircle Odessa. Potential for an amphibious assault is out of the question for now. I expect increased missile/bombing efforts on Odessa and surrounding cities.
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Belarus -
US sees no evidence that Belarus is preparing to enter the war.
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Poland -
Russian ambassador says that Poland has frozen the bank accounts of Russia’s embassy in the country
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Europe / NATO General -
U.S. President Joe Biden and world leaders opened a trio of emergency summits on Thursday with a sober warning from NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg that the alliance must boost its defenses to counter Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and “respond to a new security reality in Europe.”
NATO/U.S. forces in Europe have been placed at heightened readiness per NATO Secretary General.
There are reports that The French Military has quietly Raised its Nuclear Posture and Alert Levels over the last week or so, an Indication of this Occurring is that 3 of the 4 French Triomphant-Class Submarines which can Launch Nuclear Capable Ballistic Missiles have gone to Sea.
OBSERVATION - A very subtle but LOUD warning to Russia that France is not in the mood to play the nuclear escalation game.
Turkish S400’s - See Turkey below.
Four more NATO battle groups are being assembled and deployed on its eastern flank. This Stations a NATO Multinational Battlegroup in Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia and Poland originally with the new 4 going to Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia.
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Iran -
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned #Israel on Wednesday that it would face swift revenge attacks if it continues to target members of the elite force in the Middle East, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported.
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Turkey -
Turkey says the West should first deliver F-35s and Patriot batteries without preconditions before asking Ankara to deploy S-400s to Ukraine: Senior Turkish official Fahrettin Altun to WSJ
OBSERVATION - I don’t see this happening any time soon.
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Armenia/Azerbaijan -
There is evidence of an Azerbaijani incursion in the direction of Parukh village of the Askeran region. The coming hours will be crucial. There is a significant risk of even bigger escalation.
OBSERVATION - Russia is believed to have pulled forces out of Armenia to support the Ukraine war. Now Azerbaijan seems to be taking advantage of the situation.
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