I’m a little groggy this morning. Had a SAR call out to find a couple of lost individuals last night. I’ve tried to prevent fat fingering from messing things up.
________________________________
Invasion of Illegals -
Biden’s budget request asks Congress for at least $12 billion extra to accelerate the inflow of economic migrants into Americans’ jobs and homes but minimizes the requests for anti-drug efforts, border enforcement, and deportations.
The budget request “completely flips the script” for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), said Robert Law, a former DHS official who now works at the Center for Immigration Studies.
______________________________
Biden / Harris watch -
biden initially walked his Russia comments back, then he unwalled them and doubled down.
New harris word salad - “Well first of all we’ve been, um, you know, understanding that it is a real issue, um, what we have done is we’ve actually released some of the reserves, the petroleum reserves to bring down the cost of gas prices. And we are also dealing with – the cost of gas is just part of the issue of the cost of living, right?” Harris said. “It’s too expensive for too many people.”
___________________________
Strategic Activity / Deployments -
The Kearsarge Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) has crossed the “chop” line into 6th Fleet and is in the Middle of the Atlantic. Two of the three-ship Kearsarge Amphibious Ready Group deployed on March 16 from Naval Station Norfolk, Va., and Camp Lejeune, N.C., according to U.S. 2nd Fleet. USS Kearsarge (LHD-3) and USS Arlington (LPD-24) left the East Coast with Marine Expeditionary Unit 22 embarked. The third amphib, USS Gunston Hall (LSD-44), is set to deploy later this month from Joint Base Little Creek-Fort Story, Va.
It’s unclear if Kearsarge will be part of the ongoing NATO presence operations as the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues.
Aircraft Carrier USS Abraham Lincoln has entered the South China Sea on Friday, prior to the US and Philippines exercises called “Balikatan 22” that are set to take place from March 28 to April 8th, 2022 and will involve around 8,900 members of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and 5,100 U.S. military personnel according to U.S. Indo-Pacific Command
The United States Department of Defense announced that they would be deploying 6 of the Navy’s EA-18G Growler Electronic Warfare Aircraft as well as around 250 Navy Personnel to Spangdahlem Air Base in Germany before being Forward Deployed to NATOs Eastern Flank. The VAQ134 Garudas are an expeditionary squadron that don’t normally deploy on carriers
OBSERVATION- These Aircraft use Jamming Pods and AGM-88 HARM Tactical Anti-Radiation Missiles to detect and destroy Enemy Air Defense System’s as well as any Ground Based Radar Detection Sites, they would be very useful for a Military that was trying to Implement some sort of No-Fly Zone.
_________________________________
China -
China has accused the United States of increasing spy activity in the South China Sea after the US deployed three surveillance vessels and the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln in the region ahead of joint exercises with the Philippines
____________________________________
Japan -
North Korea’s launch of its new ICBM last Thursday has prompted Tokyo to re-examine shooting down missiles that threaten Japanese territory — something Japan has never done.
____________________________________
Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war. 34 days to complete a 2 day operation.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia is switching to a defensive posture over most of the territory seized from Ukraine. This is largely due to units no longer being combat effective as well as diverting resources to the effort to seize the greater Dombas region - the “reason” for the invasion in the first place.
Russia is becoming more aggressive in strategic strikes into western Ukraine to disrupt food, fuel, maintenance/repair and resupply lines from Poland.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
********
Peace talks being in Istanbul Turkey.
Russia’s deputy defense minister says Moscow has decided to “fundamentally cut back military activity in the direction of Kyiv and Chernigiv” in order to “increase mutual trust for future negotiations to agree and sign a peace deal with Ukraine.”
Putin spokesman: “No one is thinking about using - even about the idea of using - a nuclear weapon.”
NOTE - Putin also said they weren’t going to invade Ukraine too
RUMINT -
Bellingcat can confirm that three members of the delegation attending the peace talks between Ukraine and Russia on the night of 3 to 4 March 2022 experienced symptoms consistent with poisoning with chemical weapons. One of victims was Russian entrepreneur Roman Abramovich.
Bellingcat reports Russian Defense Minister Shoigu and other senior Russian officials including possibly President Putin are residing in nuclear bunkers in the Ural mountains.
OBSERVATION - This “Bellingcat” source reportedly has a good degree of credibility, but I’m holding in this RUMINT category until I can verify this from other sources.
Logistics -
- Rechitsa, Belarus, a large number of Russian IFVs including BMDs and BMPs are observed in a storge area. Probably about 1-2 days drive to the NW suburbs of Kyiv (if they have the fuel).
Russian Personnel Issues -
- Russian Private Military Company the Wagner Group has deployed to eastern Ukraine with more than 1,000 mercenaries, including senior leaders of the organization, to undertake combat operations. Due to heavy losses and a largely stalled invasion, Russia has likely been forced to reprioritize Wagner personnel for Ukraine at the expense of operations in Africa and Syria.
- Unconfirmed - According to Intel. Dept. of Ukraine MoD, beginning from April 1, Russia opens a draft of ~100K reservists with combat experience to send them to war in #Ukraine. This draft will be simultaneous with the spring conscription of the 18-year-old Russian men
- Russian government has granted a waiver from army service to all tech experts of draft age. This is an attempt to stop mass flight triggered by war in Ukraine.
Economic Impacts -
- The Central Bank of Russia has officially announced that, as of March 28, 2022, the Russian Ruble currency is BOUND to Gold. The rate is 5,000 Rubles per gram of gold bullion.
- A senior Russian Federation Council member warns that if EU countries don’t buy gas in rubles, gas supplies will be terminated
- Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Investment Company is pausing investments in Russia, which represent less than 1% of its portfolio, because of the Ukraine crisis, the chief executive of the $243 billion sovereign wealth fund said on Monday.
____________________________________
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru April 5th cooling into the 40’s with rain. Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Peace talks between Ukraine and Russia began today in Turkey. Russia announced that they are ceasing operations in northern Ukraine as a good faith measure. Intense fighting in the Dombas region as well as Mariupol, which is on the verge of falling to Russian forces. With Russian forces digging in, they are doing better job fighting. Growing evidence that forward Russian forces are being pulled back in many sectors and consolidating. The purpose would be to secure gains and resupply depleted units. Other Russian forces now being observed moving to the Dombas region, with numerous convoys observed departing Mykoliv area and heading east.
Superimposed on all of his - continued air and missile attacks on residential areas of towns and cities.
Kyiv front -
Situation has become VERY fluid.
The Mayor of Irpin,, has just announced that after heavy fighting the entire city has been liberated from Russian Control, Ukrainian Para-Military and Military are now free to advance north on the strategically important towns of Hostomel and Bucha.
There are reports that Alpha 1, a Ukrainian Foreign Legion team of multinational special operations soldiers, including American volunteers, took part in the liberation of Irpin.
Kyiv suburbs faced even more artillery fire, striking predominantly residential areas.
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Area also under Russian operation “cessation”. Russian forces are incapable of launching or sustaining an offensive to seize Kyiv and and any further focus will be on Chernihv.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Fierce fighting in the effort to cut off the Dombas region. Russian forces have made very little progress against Ukrainan defensive operations.
Ukrainian forces, including the Georgian National Legion, liberated a town called Rudnyts’ke, about 60 km east of Kyiv, pushing the line about 15 km farther to the east.
The defeat of the 4th GTA at Trostyanets this week cost the Russian army most of its most modern T-80 tanks.
Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Mariupol is close to falling to Russian forces who’ve managed to essentially cut the pocket in half. The following link provides a visual of the situation.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FO9xF3gXIAAAgud?format=jpg&name=small
The city suffered through another night of intense bombing and missile attacks with very few buildings currently intact. Casualities continue to climb. -
- 170,000 residents are still trapped in the besieged town;
- officially, 5,000 people killed, including 210 kids;
- 2,000+ residential blocks destroyed;
- 60,000+ private houses destroyed
Efforts to fight northward to join advances out of Khariv and Izium areas are largely stalled. Fighting is intense along the LOC between Separatists and Ukraine with some Russian advances into Ukrainian cites along the LOC . Russian redoubled attacks in the Luhansk Region with a lot of air strikes. Russian forces made very little progress though.
Crimea Front -
Russian offensives towards Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia are stopped and unable to support cutting off Dombas region.
Ukrainian forces continue to press on to Kherson . Russia may be pulling forces from Mykoliv for use at Mariupol
Surface combatants appear to have withdrawn to off the coast of Sevastopol, Crimea since the Ukraine strike that sunk the amphibious assault ship Saratov last week. This is believed of due to the air defense cover at Sevastopol.
Amphibious operations continue to be out of the question.
Western Ukraine -
Multiple Explosions being reported in the Northwestern Ukrainian city of Lutsk from Russian Air/Missile Strikes, most likely these strikes are from missiles that were claimed to have been seen fired from inside the Brest Region of Belarus earlier.
Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg
OUTLOOK -
Situation largely unchanged.
Russia lacks the capability to resume offensive operations to encircle, let alone seize Kyiv or Odessa. Current Russian attempts to press towards Kyiv lack the strength necessary to push very far and may be an attempt to free up the withdrawal of Russian forces. Russian forces will continue to focus its efforts in Eastern Ukraine, where Russia hopes to encircle and defeat Ukrainian forces in the Dombas region. Russian forces elsewhere have switched to defensive operations so that resources can be focused there.
Ukrainian forces to continue offensive operations to expand its defensive zone around Kyiv and push towards Kherson in the south. Those operations my be reduces depending on the need to send resources into the Domabas region to counter the renewed Russian offensive efforts there.
Conditions will continue to degrade in Mariupol and civilian losses are almost incalculable at this stage. Barring something significant, Russia will eventually take the ruins of the city. Loss of Mariupol would cement the Russian ‘land bridge’ between Crimea and Domabas and be a significant bargaining chip in peace talks.
Russia doesn’t have the capability to conduct amphibious operations against Odessa in the foreseeable future. I expect to see increased missile/bombing efforts on Odessa and surrounding cities.
Finally, I assess that Russian is going to do what they can to build an offensive in the Dombass.
___________________________________
Belarus -
The “rail war” on the Belarusian railway continues with reportedly two accidents in 3 days. At least 4 employees have been arrested. Other employees’ apartments have been searched, and they’ve been interrogated.
______________________________________
Pakistan -
Growing political crisis.
Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan alleges international conspiracy against him, accuses foreign forces of funding his enemies to topple his government. Iranian state-owned news network “Press TV” minces no words, says the unnamed foreign power here is clearly the United States
____________________________________
Iran -
A new potential reason for Iran’s missile attack on Iraq. A nascent plan for Iraq’s Kurdistan region to supply gas to Turkey and Europe - with Israeli help - may have angered Iran and caused them to strike the Kurdish capital Erbil with ballistic missiles this month, Iraqi and Turkish officials say.
NOTE - the villa that Iran claimed to be a Mossad training facility belonged to an Iraqi petroleum/natural gas company executive.
__________________________________
Were the lost individuals found?
Invasion of Illegals -
Wuhan virus -
White House chief medical adviser Dr. Anthony Fauci on Sunday warned about the potential for the reinstatement of COVID-19 restrictions in the U.S. In an interview on the BBC’s “Sunday Morning,” Fauci said U.S. residents “need to be prepared for the possibility” of restrictions being put back into place.
OBSERVATION - Continued wuhan maneuvering under the cover of the Ukraine war.
_____________________________
Economy -
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 19.2% annual gain in January, up from 18.9% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 17.5%, up from 17.1% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 19.1% year-over-year gain, up from 18.6% in the previous month.
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said the contract rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage shot to 4.8% in the week ended March 25 from 4.5% a week earlier. That was the largest one-week increase since February 2011, and it brought mortgage rates to their highest level since December 2018.
Inflation will mean the average U.S. household has to spend an extra $5,200 this year ($433 per month) compared to last year for the same consumption basket, according estimates by Bloomberg Economics.
OBSERVATIONS - Forecast for housing looks pretty rough as we move into spring/summer prime selling season. Many home ‘flippers’ may soon find themselves heavily in debt with property they can’t sell at the inflated prices they seek.
______________________________
Invasion of Illegals -
In preparation for a possible post-Title 42 border rush, the Department of Homeland Security has enlisted Federal Emergency Management Administration (FEMA) officials to help prepare for as many as 18,000 migrants per day. That volume would be nearly three times the current pace of arrivals.
Just six months into fiscal year 2022, which began in October, border agents will log at least 1 million encounters with illegal aliens at the U.S.-Mexico border. Number doesn’t include “got aways”
______________________________
Strategic Activity / Deployments -
200 U.S. Marines have landed in Lithuania. 10 x USMC F-18 jet fighters also sent to region amid Russia tensions
NOTE - These are not the previously reported EW aircraft.
_________________________________
North/South Korea -
South Korea on Tuesday dismissed North Korea’s claim to have launched a newly developed intercontinental ballistic missile last week, accusing the country of firing a less-powerful existing weapon and fabricating data following an earlier failed launch.
North Korea said it launched a Hwasong-17 missile, its longest-range developmental ICBM, last Thursday in its biggest weapons test in years. Its state media called the launch “a historical event” and released a stylized Hollywood-style video showing leader Kim Jong Un, in sunglasses and leather jacket, supervising the launch.
South Korea’s Defense Ministry said Tuesday it has determined that what North Korea fired wasn’t a Hwasong-17 but a Hwasong-15, another ICBM that it successfully tested in 2017. The Defense Ministry said it told a parliamentary committee that details of Thursday’s launch — such as the missile’s speed, combustion and stage separation — were similar to those of the Hwasong-15, not the Hwasong-17. The ministry report to the committee also suggested that the North Korean video wasn’t shot on the actual launch date, citing an analysis of Kim’s shadow and weather conditions seen in the video.
South Korea said it conducted its first successful launch of a solid-fuel rocket Wednesday in what it called a major step toward acquiring a space surveillance capability amid rising animosities with rival North Korea.
__________________________________
Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia is switching to a defensive posture over most of the territory seized from Ukraine. This redeployment is more likely readjustment of forces to consolidate into more defendable positions and protect their supply lines. Combat ineffective units also being pulled out to Belarus to rearm, reform and reequip.
Russia is becoming more aggressive in strategic strikes into western Ukraine to disrupt food, fuel, maintenance/repair and resupply lines from Poland.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
********
US State Department says Russia may ‘single out and detain’ American nationals who are in Russia
Peace talks in Turkey brought no break throughs yesterday.
The Russian Foreign Ministry says that the US and their allies have started a “massive cyber-operation” against Russia and warns of “severe consequences” for those involved
Given the scale of the accusations, the risk of Russia using this as a pretext to carry out a major cyber-attack of its own on Ukraine or Western countries is concerning. Joe Biden warned of a Russian cyberattack on the US recently as well.
OBSERVATION - This may be the laying of the groundwork for a long warned about Russian cyber attacks on the west. See Logistics below
RUMINT -
There are rumors of persistent tension between Putin and the MOD (Ministry of Defense), stemming from Putin’s mistrust in MOD leadership.
Logistics -
- A cyber attack has destroyed data of Rosaviatsia, RussianFederal Air Transport Agency. 65 TB of files, aircraft registration data & mail were deleted from servers. There is no backup - Russian Ministry of Finance has not allocated funds for it. @AnonOpsSE claims responsibility
Russian Personnel Issues -
- The whole command of the Russian 331st Guards Airborne Regiment is KIA in Poland. The commander, Colonel Sukharev was killed March 18. Now the chief of staff Lt Colonel Igor Sukharev with several staff officers is confirmed killed. This unit was responsible of Ilovaisk massacre in 2014.
- The Ukrainian Armed Forces announced on Tuesday that Colonel Denis Kurilo, the commander of the Russian 200th separate motorized rifle brigade, was killed outside Kharkiv.
OBSERVATION - Continued heavy losses in senior leadership will further hamstring Russian combat efforts. Senior leadership cannot be easily replaced.
Economic Impacts -
- The ruble is staging a comeback that could soon see it making up all of the losses it suffered in the weeks after Russia invaded of Ukraine, although it has some way to go yet. The currency has strengthened in 13 of the past 14 trading sessions in Moscow, paring most of the 33% decline.
____________________________________
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru April 5th cooling into the 40’s with rain. Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .
RUMINT -
Supposedly Russian defectors are depicted are now fighting for Ukraine and receiving training on NATO systems such as the NLAW.
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
UN refugee agency says more than 4 million refugees have now fled Ukraine since Russia launched its invasion of the country last month.
No positive progress from peace talks being conducted in Turkey. Ukraine President Zelenskyy says his military isn’t prepared to take a step back or slacken its defenses, in spite of word that Russia plans to ease up in its assault on capital city Kyiv. “We can say the signals we are receiving from the talks are positive but they do not drown out the explosions of Russian shells,” he said, adding that Ukraine could only trust a concrete result from peace talks.
Russia’s promise to scale down military operations around Kyiv and northern Ukraine does not represent a ceasefire and talks on a formal agreement with Kyiv have a long way to go, Moscow’s lead negotiator in peace talks said on Tuesday..
Much of Ukraine felt the heaviest artillery and bombing in a while. Strong explosions in Kyiv, Kharkiv and Khmelnytskyi (Western Ukraine Air Base in Starokostyantyniv reportedly hit with Kalibr cruise missiles)
Intelligence suggests that in part the artillery is serving to cover Russian troop movements. Analysts also indicate the the Russian are not using their declared pseudo-ceasefire to actually withdraw but to reposition forces into more defensible positions. Some of the hardest hit units in the Kyiv attacks are reported to have ben pulled back to Belarus for rest, refit and reassignment. Surviving equipment pulled out have been reported to have been loaded on trains.
It is highly likely that Russia will seek to divert combat power from the north to their offensive in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in the east.
Ukraine reached across and hit targets in Russia proper overnight, striking an ammunition depot near Belgorod. Explosions caused by the attack totaled the depot. Russian media acknowledged Tuesday that two border villages had to be evacuated because of shelling from Ukraine. The shelling forced evacuations of Zhuravlyovka and nearby Niekhoteyevka to the Russian town of Belgorod, displacing about 180 people.
However, Russian Ministry of Emergencies deny rumors about evacuation of civil population of Belgorod region. Authorities in Kursk region of Russia in attempt to calm population deny explosions, airstrikes and presence of saboteur groups in the region.
Increased Russian use of artillery /rocket deployed anti personnel mines is being noted to deter Ukrainian assaults on Russian forces. Many of these are new models, having a seismic and proximity trigger as well as a delayed self demolition feature.
Kyiv front -
Situation has become VERY fluid.
Heavy MLRS and artillery shelling in the Kyiv Oblast overnight.
Some Russian troops are moving towards Belarus. Large numbers of BMDs with Russian and VDV flags were spotted on their way from the Ukrainian border to Belarus’ Rechitsa and Gomel where they were loaded onto railway platforms. Clashes in Irpin district: Irpin, Bucha, Hostomiel, Vorzel, Kyiv-Zhytomyr highway have continued.
Russian forces have kicked up radioactive dust and disturbed a highly toxic zone around the area of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster site known as the “Red Forest” since capturing the defunct power plant early on in its invasion of Ukraine, workers at the site said.
Reuters spoke with workers who said Russian soldiers in a convoy did not use anti-radiation gear and inhaled toxic dust that will most likely cause internal radiation in their bodies. In the weeks after Russia took the site on Feb. 24, soldiers were still not wearing any protective gear, they said.
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Russian forces have reportedly pulled back across the Snov river east of Chernihiv in an effort to consolidate their positions. City was hit with additional heavy artillery/bombing overnight. The governor of Ukraine’s Chernihiv region says there is no let-up in attacks by Russia, despite its pledge to reduce military activity there.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Fierce fighting in the effort to cut off the Dombas region. Russian forces have made very little progress against Ukrainian defensive operations.
Ukrainian forces, including the Georgian National Legion, liberated a town called Rudnyts’ke, about 60 km east of Kyiv, pushing the line about 15 km farther to the east.
The defeat of the 4th GTA at Trostyanets this week cost the Russian army most of its most modern T-80 tanks.
Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Mariupol is close to falling to Russian forces who’ve managed to essentially cut the pocket in half. The following link provides a visual of the situation.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FO9xF3gXIAAAgud?format=jpg&name=small
French presidency says no Mariupol humanitarian mission possible “at this stage”.
70 people from Mariupol maternity hospital no. 2, including medical personnel and patients, have been forcibly deported to Russia, local authorities said. More than 20k Mariupol residents were forcibly deported earlier to filtration camps in Russia, their Ukrainian IDs seized.
Putin says artillery/bombing will stop upon the surrender of the city.
Efforts to fight northward to join advances out of Khariv and Izium areas are largely stalled. Fighting is intense along the LOC between Separatists and Ukraine with some Russian advances into Ukrainian cites along the LOC . Russian redoubled attacks in the Luhansk Region with a lot of air strikes. Russian forces made very little progress though. Luhansk authorities say there have been 35 artillery attacks on local towns in 24 hours
Crimea Front -
Russian offensives towards Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia are stopped and unable to support cutting off Dombas region.
Ukrainian forces continue to press on to Kherson . Russian combat engineers have been observed rigging the Antonov Bridge north of Kherson with explosives.
No amphibious operations against Odessa region appear to be possible in the near and long term.
Western Ukraine -
Air Base in Starokostyantyniv reportedly hit with Kalibr cruise missiles overnight. Ukraine claims to have shot several down.
Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg
OUTLOOK -
UK MoD update- Highly likely Russia will look to refocus combat power to their offensive in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions.
“Russian units suffering heavy losses have been forced to return to Belarus and Russia to reorganize and resupply.” Such activity is placing further pressure on Russia’s already strained logistics and demonstrates the difficulties Russia is having reorganizing its units in forward areas within Ukraine.
The Institute for the Study of War says Russian forces have given up on seizing Kyiv but that they continue to fight to hold their current position near the city. Russia is also directing some reserves in an effort to gain ground that will link Kharkiv with its front line in Luhansk. And it says Mariupol is likely to fall within days.
I concur with the UK assessments above and want to include the additional notes that Russian will continue to increase attacks on POL, and military facilities / airports in Western Ukraine with continued heavy artillery/bombing of cities in eastern Ukraine.
The mechanics of redeploying forces to support the attack in Dombas will not be an easy task. The Russians can’t simply “reposition” their forces around Kyiv & throw them into the Eastern front. That would takes weeks to logistically move them, refit, rearm, fix broken vehicles, replace wounded soldiers. It will also burden the already chaotic logistical system. The Russian scale down military operations around Kyiv and northern Ukraine may be an attempt to mitigate that logistical impact.
Another factor is the mental state and morale of those redeploying troops. Persistent repots of desertions and self wounding point to a mentally defeated force. Replacements are assessed to be just as poorly trained and prepared as the initial forces.
Replacement equipment is of questionable quality, with reports of key systems having been removed some time when it was in storage. Maintenance issues have been one cause of high vehicle losses so far.
Longer term outlook suggests that Russia will use remaining forces in the north to ‘hold’ Ukrainian forces in place and prevent their redeployment to the south. Consolidated efforts to capture Dombas will be Russia’s primary objective. This readjustment may solve much of the resource competition seen over the past month. Concentration of effort may result in more success. If Russia can “liberate’ the Dombas region,and break out of what would be a pyrrhic victory.
To prevent confusion, the Dombas region consist of two Ukrainian provinces (Oblast) - Donstsk and Luhansk Oblass. The following link show the pre war situation and control by separatists.
If Russia can accomplish the “liberation” of the region, along with the securing of a ‘land bridge to Crimea, they could establish some conditions to end the war.
___________________________________
Europe / NATO General -
The Finnish President reportedly spoke with the NATO Secretary General on Monday in regards to the “principles and procedures involved” in NATOs acceptance of new members. This comes after the former Finnish PM said he believed the country would soon apply for NATO membership.
Denmark says it would very strongly support Finland’s NATO accession
Norway’s defence ministry says it has donated an additional 2,000 m72 anti-tank weapons to Ukraine - Reuters
Europe bracing for potential cuts in gas and oil imports from Russian after refusing to pay in rubles.
Denmark says it will send a battalion of 800 troops to the Baltic States if NATO requests it.
Belgium, Ireland, the Netherlands & the Czech Republic have today expelled a total of 43 Russian diplomats over alleged spying activities, taking to more than 100 the number of Russian officials to be kicked out of European nations this month
GENERAL OBSERVATIONS - Russia’s efforts to split NATO and cause the eastern European nations to be abandoned has epically failed. The nations have largely done just the opposite. Plus Finland and Sweden’s push not to join NATO has expanded its presence on its border.
____________________________________
Israel -
Following the recent terror attacks in Be’er Sheva and Hadera, and advance of the Muslim holidays, which will coincide with the Jewish Passover and the Christian Easter, Israel Police was anticipating a surge of violent clashes. The police said that they are expecting up to 35 days of possible violence, and incidents 3 times the magnitude of those that occurred last year, with dozens of hot spots throughout the country and possible missile fire from Gaza.
A shooting in Bnei Brak, central Israel, has left 5 dead. Reportedly, three terrorists were involved in the shooting. 1 was killed, 1 was arrested, and another is possibly at large
Recent series of attacks in Israel:
- 22 March: Knife and vehicle attack in Beersheba, 4 killed. Claimed by ISIS.
- 27 March: Shooting in Hadera, 2 police officers killed, 6 injured. Claimed by ISIS.
- 29 March: Shooting spree in Bnei Brak, , at least 5 killed. Some saying Al-Aqsa Martyr’s Brigade have claimed responsibility for this attack, currently there is no claim across any of their official media.
- 29 March: Initial reports of a stabbing attempt in Jerusalem’s Mahne Yehuda market
OBSERVATION - More violence of this manner, don’t anticipate any significant supporting rocket attacks from Gaza.
____________________________________
Saudi Arabia -
Arab Coalition announces stopping military operations in Yemen to create the appropriate conditions for the success of the #GCC-sponsored peace talks and to create a positive environment during Ramadan. Unilateral ceasefire - Houthis have not agreed to it.
__________________________________
Syria -
Closing the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits to Russian warships poses a logistical problem for Russia in Syria. Normally, supplies would be loaded in Black Sea ports and shipped to Syria. Now Russia has to depend more on airlift - competing with the Ukraine war for this resource.
__________________________________
Armenia/Azerbaijan -
Russia’s Defense Ministry on Saturday accused Azerbaijani troops of entering a village under the jurisdiction of Russian peacekeepers in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, setting up an surveillance post, and conducting drone strikes against local Armenian forces.
____________________________________
