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Globalism / Great Reset -

Bill Gates expounded upon how people should eat in an interview with MIT Technology Review.
“I do think all rich countries should move to 100 percent synthetic beef. You can get used to the taste difference, and the claim is they’re going to make it taste even better over time,” he said.

“I do think all rich countries should move to 100 percent synthetic beef. You can get used to the taste difference, and the claim is they’re going to make it taste even better over time,” he said.

Gates said governmental compulsion is an option.
“Eventually, that green premium is modest enough that you can sort of change the [behavior of] people or use regulation to totally shift the demand,” he said
While richer nations eat fake beef, genetically altered animals will provide meat for other places, such as Africa, he said.

OBSERVATION - “Let them eat cake”
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Wuhan virus -

China’s financial hub of Shanghai launched a planned two-stage lockdown of the city of 26 million people on Monday, closing bridges and tunnels, and restricting highway traffic in a scramble to contain surging local COVID-19 cases.
The snap lockdown, announced by Shanghai’s city government on Sunday, will split the city in two roughly along the Huangpu River for nine days to allow for “staggered” testing. It is the biggest COVID-related disruption to hit the city so far.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration is no longer authorizing the monoclonal antibody treatment sotrovimab in 10 states and territories due to questions about its effectiveness against the BA.2 Omicron subvariant. The new subvariant accounts for more than 50% of all COVID-19 variants in the eight states and two territories listed by the agency. Healthcare providers will no longer be able to treat patients with sotrovimab in those areas, and in other regions, they are instructed to monitor the BA.2 subvariant before deciding which antibody treatment to proscribe.
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Economy -

Global oil prices have fallen as China starts to implement a city-wide lockdown in Shanghai, an important financial and manufacturing hub.
Brent crude lost more than $4.50 a barrel at $115.80 a barrel on concerns that the move would mean that demand for oil will fall. Despite the fall, oil remains almost 80% higher than it was a year ago after the war in Ukraine helped to drive up prices.

Biden’s “Billionaire Minimum Income Tax” proposal would set a 20 percent tax rate floor on Americans worth more than $100 million — hitting not only their stated income, but also their unrealized gains on stock holdings and other forms of wealth.
The plan will be included in the budget proposal that the White House will roll out Monday.
Biden’s new tax could raise up to $360 billion over 10 years, say the aides who developed it, and would fall on the richest 700 Americans.
Another detail of the proposed tax hike should also run into opposition and a likely court challenge. The description of the amount of “income” to be taxed includes the phrase “unrealized investment income.” In other words, if the shares comprising your retirement plan or your stock portfolio go up by a given percentage, that increase will be treated as income and you’ll be taxed on it even though you haven’t cashed it in yet.

OBSERVATION - This is a sop to the rabid progressive wing the democrat party. It is unlikely that this will pass congress. One of the most incredible parts of this plan is the intention to tax unrealized gains.
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Biden / Harris watch -

WH still scrambling to walk back the numerous biden gaffs in Ukraine.

President Biden’s job-approval rating has plummeted to the lowest of his White House tenure. The number of Americans who approve of Biden’s actions since he took the helm of the country in January 2021 has fallen to 40% – the lowest of his presidency and a dramatic 13 percentage-point drop from April 2021, the NBC News poll shows.
OBSERVATION - This is from biden friendly NBC, makes you wonder what the real numbers are.
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China -

See Shanghai lockdown under Wuhan above.
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Japan -

The Japanese Yen (world’s third most-traded & third-largest reserve currency) is on track for one of its worst months ever.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia is switching to a defensive posture over most of the territory seized from Ukraine. This is largely due to units no longer being combat effective as well as diverting resources to the effort to seize the greater Dombas region - the “reason” for the invasion in the first place.
Russia is becoming more aggressive in strategic strikes into western Ukraine to disrupt food, fuel, maintenance/repair and resupply lines from Poland.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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RUMINT -
I’m not going into details of a Russian released video claiming Ukraine forces shot Russian POWs in the legs. There has been quite the discussion of the video on the inter webs that have generally resulted in the video being defined as faked / Russian propaganda. General consensus that Ukraine needs to throughly investigate it as well. I am one of those who think the video is fake due to many discrepancies.

Logistics -
- Logistical issues still plague Russian forces and is one of the major contributors to Russian failures to pursue / maintain offensive operations.
- Conservative estimates that Russia has lost close to 2200 vehicles and other pieces of (heavy) military equipment since it began its invasion of #Ukraine a month ago.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- From the northern Ukraine’s area near capital Kyiv, Russia reportedly withdrew two battalions of the 106th air-paratrooper division (VDV) from the northern area near Kylv to Belarus. It is believed this is due to having suffered significant losses during recent Ukrainian counterattacks.
OBSERVATION - VDV forces have been the tip of the Russian spear in this war and has suffered heavy personnel and equipment losses, not only in the Kyiv fight but also now that Crimean operations have stalled.

Economic Impacts -
- Pavel Zavalny, who serves as Chairman of the Russian Energy Committee, has stated that his country will consider taking Bitcoin as payment for energy exports.
- G7 rejects paying for Russian natural gas in rubles.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru April 5th cooling into the 40’s with rain. Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
UK MOD update- “Ongoing logistical shortages have been compounded by a continued lack of momentum and morale amongst the Russian military, and aggressive fighting by the Ukrainians.”

More heavy artillery and bombing/missile attacks on residential areas of numerous Ukrainian cities.

Reuters quoted an adviser to the Ukrainian Interior Ministry: We do not expect substantial progress in negotiations with the Russian side.

Ukraine says it won’t open humanitarian corridors from its cities on Monday due to warnings of Russian “provocations” on routes. In the past these ‘provocations “ have been Russian artillery shelling the evacuation routes.

Kyiv front -
Situation has become VERY fluid.
Overnight Kyiv and surrounding communities went through another night of intense bombing and artillery fire.
Russia has reportedly launched an attempt to break through defenses near Kyiv according to Ukraine’s Armed Forces. Russian troops are attempting to advance on Kyiv from the northwest and east, capturing nearby roads and villages. However, Russian gains are reportedly to be limited.

OBSERVATION - Most view this action as an attempt to break contact and withdraw Russian forces. Russia does not have the capability to make any significant advances in this area.

Ukrainan forces continue the pressure to cut off Russian forces on the southern tip of the salient.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Fight over the encirclement of Chernihiv by Russia continues. Forces made little territorial gains. Chernihv and surrounding communities continued to receive intense bombing and artillery fire into residential areas.

Attempts by Russian forces to advance on Kyiv - see above.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
UK intel update: “Russian forces appear to be concentrating their effort to attempt the encirclement of Ukrainian forces directly facing the separatist regions in the east of the country, advancing from the direction of Kharkiv in the north and Mariupol in the south.”
Heavy fighting near Izyum continues with the goal to cut off Ukraine forces in the Dombas region.

Ukrainian defenders have liberated Trostyanets and Husarivka from Russian forces. Reports that the Ukrainian army is in Slavhorod and Krasnopolia, drove Russian forces back to the international border in Sumy region. In the process, Ukrainian forces reportedly mauled the 4th Guards Tank Division. Losses of T80 tanks alone in this division was estimated to be 25% of T-80s in its 12th + 13th tank regiments. Ukraine forces also captured a considerable amount of ammunition and other supplies.
Russia’s elite 4th Guards forged a fearsome reputation in Second World War battles but have been reduced to smoking wreckage in Trostyanets.

Trostyanets action separates Russian forces around Kharkiv from the rest of the front to the south. .

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Things continue desperate in Mariupol with intense street fighting ongoing. Some are likening it to Stalingrad.
Ukrainian control of the city has been reduced to about 60%. Reports indicate that virtually 100% of the residential buildings in the city and surrounding suburbs have been rendered unlivable and rubbled. Reports - confirmed and unconfirmed - of Russians taking captured civilians from the area and importing them into holding camps in Russia.

Efforts to fight northward to join advances out of Khariv and Izium areas are largely stalled. Fighting is intense along the LOC between Separatists and Ukraine with some Russian advances into Ukrainian cites along the LOC . Russian redoubled attacks in the Luhansk Region with a lot of air strikes. Russian forces made very little progress though.

Crimea Front -
Russian offensives towards Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia are stalled.

Ukrainian forces continue to press on to Kherson .

Russia is maintaining a distant blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea coast, effectively isolating Ukraine from international maritime trade. Russian naval forces are also continuing to conduct sporadic missile strikes against targets throughout Ukraine.” - UK MOD intel assessment.
Surface combatants appear to have withdrawn to off the coast of Sevastopol, Crimea since the Ukraine strike that sunk the amphibious assault ship Saratov last week. This is believed of due to the air defense cover at Sevastopol.

Western Ukraine -
Multiple Explosions being reported in the Northwestern Ukrainian city of Lutsk from Russian Air/Missile Strikes, most likely these strikes are from missiles that were claimed to have been seen fired from inside the Brest Region of Belarus earlier.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -
Situation largely unchanged.
Russia lacks the capability to resume offensive operations to encircle, let alone seize Kyiv or Odessa. Current Russian attempts to press towards Kyiv lack the strength necessary to push very far and may be an attempt to free up the withdrawal of Russian forces. Russian forces will continue to focus its efforts in Eastern Ukraine, where Russia hopes to encircle and defeat Ukrainian forces in the Dombas region. Russian forces elsewhere have switched to defensive operations so that resources can be focused there.

Ukrainian forces to continue offensive operations to expand its defensive zone around Kyiv and push towards Kherson in the south. Those operations my be reduces depending on the need to send resources into the Domabas region to counter the renewed Russian offensive efforts there.

Conditions will continue to degrade in Mariupol and civilian losses are almost incalculable at this stage. Barring something significant, Russia will eventually take the ruins of the city. Loss of Mariupol would cement the Russian ‘land bridge’ between Crimea and Domabas and be a significant bargaining chip in peace talks.

Russia doesn’t have the capability to conduct amphibious operations against Odessa in the foreseeable future. I expect to see increased missile/bombing efforts on Odessa and surrounding cities.
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Europe / NATO General -

Estonia’s Interior Minister has warned that Russia’s influence operations have accelerated in recent weeks
Russia is reportedly recruiting spies to assess Estonian border security and how easy it is to penetrate the border

A reminder that NATO is paying close attention to actions in Ukraine with a lot of airborne assets.
-Swedish Air Force GIV Korpen SVF645
-USAF RC-135W Rivet Joint HOMER11
-USAF E-8C Joint STARS REDEYE6
-USAF RQ4 Global Hawk FORTE11
-USAF RC-135W Rivet Joint JAKE11
-NATO E3 AWACS NATO01
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Israel -

ISIS officially claimed responsibility for attack in northern central Israeli city of Hadera that killed 2 and wounded 4. This is the first time it has taken credit for an attack in Israel since June 2017.

Israeli and Arab partners convened for a rare summit in Israel on Sunday attended by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who sought to reassure the U.S. allies over Washington’s diplomacy with Iran. Israel has reportedly raised its defense readiness in the south of the country amid concerns of aerial threats during this unprecedented diplomatic summit.
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Iraq -

Pro Iranian militias attacked the KDP office in Baghdad and set it on fire. The attack was linked to the formation of the new Iraqi Cabinet. This is the second time that KDP office in Baghdad set on fire within a year.
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Syria -

Russian warplanes target the southern outskirts of the town of Maarat al-Naasan, east of Idlib city, with several air raids
OBSERVATION - This is the largest Russian attack in Syria since the Ukraine war began.
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Armenia/Azerbaijan -

Azerbaijani Defense Ministry: “Russian MoD’s statement shows disrespect to the signed declaration” There have been no changes in the positions of the Azerbaijani Army in Farrukh village and surrounding heights. The Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Azerbaijan regrets that the points reflected in the statement of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation dated March 27, 2022 are not true.

OBSERVATION - Situation is still tense and without the additional Russian muscle to deter the Azeri’s the potential for more violence to break out remains high.
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I’m a little groggy this morning. Had a SAR call out to find a couple of lost individuals last night. I’ve tried to prevent fat fingering from messing things up.
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Invasion of Illegals -

Biden’s budget request asks Congress for at least $12 billion extra to accelerate the inflow of economic migrants into Americans’ jobs and homes but minimizes the requests for anti-drug efforts, border enforcement, and deportations.
The budget request “completely flips the script” for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), said Robert Law, a former DHS official who now works at the Center for Immigration Studies.

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Biden / Harris watch -

biden initially walked his Russia comments back, then he unwalled them and doubled down.

New harris word salad - “Well first of all we’ve been, um, you know, understanding that it is a real issue, um, what we have done is we’ve actually released some of the reserves, the petroleum reserves to bring down the cost of gas prices. And we are also dealing with – the cost of gas is just part of the issue of the cost of living, right?” Harris said. “It’s too expensive for too many people.”
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -

The Kearsarge Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) has crossed the “chop” line into 6th Fleet and is in the Middle of the Atlantic. Two of the three-ship Kearsarge Amphibious Ready Group deployed on March 16 from Naval Station Norfolk, Va., and Camp Lejeune, N.C., according to U.S. 2nd Fleet. USS Kearsarge (LHD-3) and USS Arlington (LPD-24) left the East Coast with Marine Expeditionary Unit 22 embarked. The third amphib, USS Gunston Hall (LSD-44), is set to deploy later this month from Joint Base Little Creek-Fort Story, Va.
It’s unclear if Kearsarge will be part of the ongoing NATO presence operations as the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues.

Aircraft Carrier USS Abraham Lincoln has entered the South China Sea on Friday, prior to the US and Philippines exercises called “Balikatan 22” that are set to take place from March 28 to April 8th, 2022 and will involve around 8,900 members of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and 5,100 U.S. military personnel according to U.S. Indo-Pacific Command

The United States Department of Defense announced that they would be deploying 6 of the Navy’s EA-18G Growler Electronic Warfare Aircraft as well as around 250 Navy Personnel to Spangdahlem Air Base in Germany before being Forward Deployed to NATOs Eastern Flank. The VAQ134 Garudas are an expeditionary squadron that don’t normally deploy on carriers
OBSERVATION- These Aircraft use Jamming Pods and AGM-88 HARM Tactical Anti-Radiation Missiles to detect and destroy Enemy Air Defense System’s as well as any Ground Based Radar Detection Sites, they would be very useful for a Military that was trying to Implement some sort of No-Fly Zone.
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China -

China has accused the United States of increasing spy activity in the South China Sea after the US deployed three surveillance vessels and the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln in the region ahead of joint exercises with the Philippines
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Japan -

North Korea’s launch of its new ICBM last Thursday has prompted Tokyo to re-examine shooting down missiles that threaten Japanese territory — something Japan has never done.

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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war. 34 days to complete a 2 day operation.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Peace talks being in Istanbul Turkey.

Russia’s deputy defense minister says Moscow has decided to “fundamentally cut back military activity in the direction of Kyiv and Chernigiv” in order to “increase mutual trust for future negotiations to agree and sign a peace deal with Ukraine.”

Putin spokesman: “No one is thinking about using - even about the idea of using - a nuclear weapon.”
NOTE - Putin also said they weren’t going to invade Ukraine too

RUMINT -
Bellingcat can confirm that three members of the delegation attending the peace talks between Ukraine and Russia on the night of 3 to 4 March 2022 experienced symptoms consistent with poisoning with chemical weapons. One of victims was Russian entrepreneur Roman Abramovich.
Bellingcat reports Russian Defense Minister Shoigu and other senior Russian officials including possibly President Putin are residing in nuclear bunkers in the Ural mountains.
OBSERVATION - This “Bellingcat” source reportedly has a good degree of credibility, but I’m holding in this RUMINT category until I can verify this from other sources.

Logistics -
- Rechitsa, Belarus, a large number of Russian IFVs including BMDs and BMPs are observed in a storge area. Probably about 1-2 days drive to the NW suburbs of Kyiv (if they have the fuel).

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Russian Private Military Company the Wagner Group has deployed to eastern Ukraine with more than 1,000 mercenaries, including senior leaders of the organization, to undertake combat operations. Due to heavy losses and a largely stalled invasion, Russia has likely been forced to reprioritize Wagner personnel for Ukraine at the expense of operations in Africa and Syria.
- Unconfirmed - According to Intel. Dept. of Ukraine MoD, beginning from April 1, Russia opens a draft of ~100K reservists with combat experience to send them to war in #Ukraine. This draft will be simultaneous with the spring conscription of the 18-year-old Russian men
- Russian government has granted a waiver from army service to all tech experts of draft age. This is an attempt to stop mass flight triggered by war in Ukraine.

Economic Impacts -
- The Central Bank of Russia has officially announced that, as of March 28, 2022, the Russian Ruble currency is BOUND to Gold. The rate is 5,000 Rubles per gram of gold bullion.
- A senior Russian Federation Council member warns that if EU countries don’t buy gas in rubles, gas supplies will be terminated
- Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Investment Company is pausing investments in Russia, which represent less than 1% of its portfolio, because of the Ukraine crisis, the chief executive of the $243 billion sovereign wealth fund said on Monday.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru April 5th cooling into the 40’s with rain. Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Peace talks between Ukraine and Russia began today in Turkey. Russia announced that they are ceasing operations in northern Ukraine as a good faith measure. Intense fighting in the Dombas region as well as Mariupol, which is on the verge of falling to Russian forces. With Russian forces digging in, they are doing better job fighting. Growing evidence that forward Russian forces are being pulled back in many sectors and consolidating. The purpose would be to secure gains and resupply depleted units. Other Russian forces now being observed moving to the Dombas region, with numerous convoys observed departing Mykoliv area and heading east.
Superimposed on all of his - continued air and missile attacks on residential areas of towns and cities.

Kyiv front -
Situation has become VERY fluid.
The Mayor of Irpin,, has just announced that after heavy fighting the entire city has been liberated from Russian Control, Ukrainian Para-Military and Military are now free to advance north on the strategically important towns of Hostomel and Bucha.
There are reports that Alpha 1, a Ukrainian Foreign Legion team of multinational special operations soldiers, including American volunteers, took part in the liberation of Irpin.

Kyiv suburbs faced even more artillery fire, striking predominantly residential areas.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Area also under Russian operation “cessation”. Russian forces are incapable of launching or sustaining an offensive to seize Kyiv and and any further focus will be on Chernihv.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Fierce fighting in the effort to cut off the Dombas region. Russian forces have made very little progress against Ukrainan defensive operations.

Ukrainian forces, including the Georgian National Legion, liberated a town called Rudnyts’ke, about 60 km east of Kyiv, pushing the line about 15 km farther to the east.

The defeat of the 4th GTA at Trostyanets this week cost the Russian army most of its most modern T-80 tanks.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Mariupol is close to falling to Russian forces who’ve managed to essentially cut the pocket in half. The following link provides a visual of the situation.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FO9xF3gXIAAAgud?format=jpg&name=small
The city suffered through another night of intense bombing and missile attacks with very few buildings currently intact. Casualities continue to climb. -
- 170,000 residents are still trapped in the besieged town;
- officially, 5,000 people killed, including 210 kids;
- 2,000+ residential blocks destroyed;
- 60,000+ private houses destroyed

Crimea Front -
Russian offensives towards Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia are stopped and unable to support cutting off Dombas region.

Ukrainian forces continue to press on to Kherson . Russia may be pulling forces from Mykoliv for use at Mariupol

Surface combatants appear to have withdrawn to off the coast of Sevastopol, Crimea since the Ukraine strike that sunk the amphibious assault ship Saratov last week. This is believed of due to the air defense cover at Sevastopol.

Amphibious operations continue to be out of the question.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -
Situation largely unchanged.

Russia lacks the capability to resume offensive operations to encircle, let alone seize Kyiv or Odessa. Current Russian attempts to press towards Kyiv lack the strength necessary to push very far and may be an attempt to free up the withdrawal of Russian forces. Russian forces will continue to focus its efforts in Eastern Ukraine, where Russia hopes to encircle and defeat Ukrainian forces in the Dombas region. Russian forces elsewhere have switched to defensive operations so that resources can be focused there.

Russia doesn’t have the capability to conduct amphibious operations against Odessa in the foreseeable future. I expect to see increased missile/bombing efforts on Odessa and surrounding cities.

Finally, I assess that Russian is going to do what they can to build an offensive in the Dombass.
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Belarus -

The “rail war” on the Belarusian railway continues with reportedly two accidents in 3 days. At least 4 employees have been arrested. Other employees’ apartments have been searched, and they’ve been interrogated.
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Pakistan -

Growing political crisis.
Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan alleges international conspiracy against him, accuses foreign forces of funding his enemies to topple his government. Iranian state-owned news network “Press TV” minces no words, says the unnamed foreign power here is clearly the United States
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Iran -

A new potential reason for Iran’s missile attack on Iraq. A nascent plan for Iraq’s Kurdistan region to supply gas to Turkey and Europe - with Israeli help - may have angered Iran and caused them to strike the Kurdish capital Erbil with ballistic missiles this month, Iraqi and Turkish officials say.
NOTE - the villa that Iran claimed to be a Mossad training facility belonged to an Iraqi petroleum/natural gas company executive.

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