Threat Matrix 2022

Welcome to the Threat Matrix 2022. Keep up to date on the multiple threats to our country and life.

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Wuhan virus -

Myocarditis used to be a rare disorder discussed mainly in academic literature, but now it is everywhere. Yet reports of myocarditis and pericarditis are so prevalent now that just in the first eight weeks of 2022, we’re already at 47% of the total VAERS submissions for 2021. There were 24,177 reports of pericarditis/myocarditis submitted to VAERS in 2021. In 2022, just through Feb. 25, there were 11,289 reports, which is nearly half of last year’s total.

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Economy -

biden trying to pin all the economic woes on Russia and its Ukraine invasion.

$1.5 trillion omnibus bill on Wednesday allocating $5.9 billion of fiscal 2022 Legislative Branch funding to boosting the allowance and salaries of their staff by about 21%.

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Invasion of Illegals -

Arrests and deportations of illegal immigrants have dropped by up to 85% under President Joe Biden’s administration compared to previous administrations, according to data released by the Department of Homeland Security.
Immigration and Customs Enforcement reported this week that it removed 59,011 illegal immigrants between October 2020 and September 2021. For comparison, in 2011 during the Obama administration, around 400,000 illegal immigrants were deported.

Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Mayorkas and other officials plan to notify Mexico that Title 42 may end as soon as April. Title 42 is a policy recommendation from CDC in times of public health emergencies.

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Strategic Activity / Deployments -

US Army 1st ABCT, 3rd Infantry, is manning prepositioned Stocks-2 vehicles and equipment at an ECHA in Grafenwoehr, Germany.

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North Korea -

South Korea’s military has said that North Korea is restoring tunnels at its nuclear test site.

With Yoon Suk-yeol becoming the president-elect of South Korea, it is expected he will do the following:
- Large-scale joint military exercises with the U.S.
- Support the deployment of a second THAAD.
- Prefer the U.S. over China.
- Label the DPRK as the “main enemy”.

Yoon also cited a preemptive strike as an option to deal with the North Korean threat. He also initially endorsed redeploying U.S. nuclear weapons to South Korea or commencing a “nuclear-sharing deal.”

OBSERVATION - Things are likely to become hotter on the Korean Peninsula over the course of the next year. Kim definitely won’t like this new president.

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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands after over two weeks This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Some Russian forces, particularly in the southern area of Ukraine, appear to be getting their act together, but are still facing vicious defense measures. However, efforts to surround Kyiv are still stalled to progressing slowly.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 100% of the combat force Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, There are no more reserves in theater for Russian forces to draw upon.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

Russia will treat western arms shipments to Ukraine as legitimate military targets, deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov says.
“We warned [the US] of consequences from the insane transfer to Ukraine of weapons like mobile anti-aircraft systems, anti-tank missiles, and so on.”
OBSERVATION - How far will Russia go to stop the flow of arms - Poland? NATO taking this threat very seriously.

Russia has increased the call for mercenaries to join the fight in Ukraine. So far the biggest numbers are coming from Syria and Chechenia, Both are touted as being experienced urban fighters, suggesting Russia intends to try to push into select cities.
OBSERVATION - As I noted yesterday, Russia seems unable to get additional troops internally - most likely without a general mobilizations and with a civilian population on the edge of anti-patin riots doesn’t what that action. These mercenaries will take a week or so to get integrated into operations and will need to be equipped before entering battle.

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Economic Impacts -
- Bloomberg: Russia loses over $30 billion of its GDP since the start of all-out invasion. Russia’s full-year GDP is expected to slump by about 9% in 2022, Bloomberg reports.
- Biden on Friday called for a removal of normal trade relations with Russia, allowing for new tariffs on Russian imports in yet another effort to ratchet up sanctions over Moscow’s intensifying invasion of Ukraine. Biden’s proposal, which would require congressional approval, would put Moscow’s trade relationship with the U.S. in the same category as North Korea and Cuba.
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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 20th show temperatures in the mid 30’s . Conditions maintain for muddy off road conditions, but no forecast for any rain which would basically put a nail into any maneuvering off road.

Ukraine’s fixed-wing aircraft fleet is estimated to be 80 percent intact 15 days after Russian invasion: senior U.S. defense official.
Ukraine only flying 56 fighter jets 5-10 hours per day given Russian surface-to-air missilery coverage over the country.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Russian forces appeared to be regrouping, possibly for a fresh offensive which could target the capital Kyiv in a few days, Britain’s defense ministry said on Friday. Russian ground forces were still making only limited progress, hampered by logistical problems and Ukrainian resistance.
Russia also increased missile attacks on airbases in central and western Ukraine. Many of these strikes were cruse missiles launched by Russian bombers in a stand-off mode. Evidence suggests that Ukraine ADA in the west world inflict severe losses on Russian aircraft if they conduct more direct attacks. The industrial city of Dnipro has been facing even more intensive missile attacks.

Unconfirmed report that staff at Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine (biggest nuclear plant in Europe) have been told the plant is now owned by Russian state nuclear energy company Rosatom

Kyiv front -
Intense bombardment of residental areas continue to create excessive civilian causalities. Towns like Irpin (west of Kyiv) have been turned largely to rubble. Numerous missile attacks on the city and surrounding neighborhoods over night.
Russia forces are still struggling to cross the Irpin River and many forces are trying to bypass that by swinging further west. Lighter ATGM equipped Ukraine forces keeping the Russian armor at bay.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Little change. Threat of Russian advance to Kyiv from this front has been greatly diminished over the past couple of days. The 40 mile column has tactically dispersed its vehicles into the surrounding cities and woods to try to minimize losses. Some evidence that the Russia forces may be repositioning and preparing of a stronger assault on Kyiv.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Two extremely extended Russian attack axes from Konotop and Sumy still in play. The road bound nature of the advance was dramatically videos as a Russian armor column (up to regimental size) got caught in a choke point and fell under Ukraine artillery, destroying numerous tanks and forcing the column to retreat.
Intensive fighting around Sumy reported over night.
Continues Russian bombing/artillery attacks have rubbled the historic center of Khariv. Defenders continue to hold Russian forces at bay and infliction heavy losses.
A push from the southern most portion southward has reached the town Izium. Again, road bound assault that is now endanger of stalling as POL convoys get exposed to Ukraine raids.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
No significant changes from Mar 5 positions. Conditions in Mariupol are becoming desperate with bombing killing hundreds of civilians. Residents of Melitopol call for the release of their mayor, Ivan Fedorov, who was abducted by Russian troops on Friday. Overnight intense artillery hit Mariupol and reports that the eastern portion of the city has fallen under Russian control. The most egregious attack by Russia was the destruction of the woman maternity hospital.

Crimea Front -
Three major pushes being 1) North - northwest towards Voznesensk 2) Northward towards Zaporizhzhia and 3) eastward towards Mariupol. Intense artillery at Mykolaiv overnight with the Regional governor Vitaly Kim saying Ukraine has repelled the attack. The city is key to any future assault on Odessa, further down on the Black Sea coast
This action suggests that Russia is contemplating a push towards Odessa This would also suggest a pivot to the west of the Voznesensk push.

Russian amphibious ships observed off shore of the western Crimea coast between Yevpatoriia and Sevastopol. No indicators of any impending amphibious operations.

Russian army bombed a residential area in Dnipro city. Explosions damaged a shoe factory, one apartment building and a kindergarten

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -

Little change in outlook. I expect Russia to continue the brutal and indiscriminate bombing of residential and other civilian targets to force the submission of the population while its military continues to be bogged down both by losses of combat forces made worse by continuing logistical morass. Russia has essentially no operational ground combat reserves out of his pre invasion staged forces, essentially 100% of ground forces are committed.

With the recent, harder push on Mykolaiv, Russia may be closer to executing an amphibious assault option to encircle Odessa. I would expect that it would wait until a more successful push westward from Mykolaiv before launching. Odessa appears to have fortified itself like Kyiv and will be a very tough nut to crack. The Crimea front has tactically been the most proficient in the war.

Russia will have to act and act soon to cutoff the supplies coming in via Poland. Either boots on the ground or a more substantial air/missile campaign is going to be needed. As Russia’s ground forces are essentially fully committed to existing combat, air/missile interdiction the most likely result. However, this will be largely shooting in the dark, so to speak, a hit and miss because Russia doesn’t have a good OODA loop for quickly processing targetable information. They may be able to strike fixed facilites, but the convoys are another matter. This has the greatest potential for conflict with NATO.

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Belarus -

(Reuters) - The leaders of Russia and Belarus agreed on Friday that Moscow would supply its smaller neighbour with the most up-to-date military equipment in the near future, the official Belarus Belta news agency said

Belarus government has said it will send five battalion tactical groups to the border with Ukraine to replace the troops currently stationed there. It denies that this is part of preparations for entry into the war
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Europe / NATO General -

The EU pledges to double military aid to Ukraine. This means an additional 500 million euros in military aid. No word on the kind of weaponry that it would finance
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Israel -

A top Ukrainian adviser and an Israeli official on Saturday pushed back against a media report suggesting Israel tried to nudge Ukraine into caving to Russian demands during talks. A report carried by Israel’s Walla news, The Jerusalem Post and US news site Axios had suggested, citing an unidentified Ukrainian official, that Bennett had urged Ukraine to give in to Russia.
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Globalism / Great Reset -

In an essay published in The Hill on Monday titled “After years of US population growth, it’s time for a pause,” former director of the United Nations Population Division Joseph Chamie argued that by curbing its population growth, America would have an easier time solving its major problems. “Without a doubt, America’s population growth is a major factor affecting domestic demand for resources, including water, food and energy, and the worsening of the environment and climate change,” he writes. “If the United States intends to address climate change, biodiversity loss, pollution, etc., it must consider how its population affects each issue,” he adds.
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Wuhan virus -

Pfizer is close to submitting data to the Food and Drug Administration on a fourth dose of its Covid-19 vaccine, according to CEO Albert Bourla. “Clearly there is a need in an environment of omicron to boost the immune response,” he told CNBC in an interview Friday.
OBSERVATION - Since the previous three jabs worked so well . . . .

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Economy -

Watch to see if Iran’s missile attack causes oil prices to spike.

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Biden / Harris watch -
Modification of this category - both are competing for the dumbest statement of the year award

While speaking at the DNC Winter Meeting on Saturday, Kamala Harris appeared to suggest that Ukraine was part of NATO.
“So I will say what I know we all say, and I will say over and over again: The United States stands firmly with the Ukrainian people in defense of the NATO Alliance.”

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China -

China places 17 million residents of Shenzhen under Covid lockdown
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North Korea -

Observers on watch for a possible ICBM test launch sometime this next week.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands after over two weeks This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

At least a dozen Russian - military affiliated airliners have been tracked flying into and out of Syria over the past couple days. This could likely be a airlift of fighters called up to join the Ukraine operation.

Anti-war protests continue across Russia, with more arrests.

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RUMINT - The Russian “army leadership has resumed the practice of ‘execution squads’ - echelons that follow the main forces of the Russian Federation and kill those who want to escape,”, just like Soviet Union’s commissar squads. Near Odesa, 600 marines rebelled and refused to leave their ship.
OBSERVATION - Not beyond the realm of reality, Putin is old school KGB and would sanction such actions. There are an abundance of reports out there describing the low moral of Russian conscripts and the break down of control.

Economic Impacts -
- Bermuda withdraws the licenses from 745 of Russia’s 1,400 airplanes, meaning they can no longer fly internationally. They are registered in Bermuda for tax avoidance.
- Russia said it is seeking help from China to shore up its economy amid western sanctions. Moscow claimed half of its foreign currency and gold reserves had been frozen by the West. “We have part of our gold and foreign exchange reserves in the Chinese currency, in yuan. And we see what pressure is being exerted by western countries on China in order to limit mutual trade with China. Of course, there is pressure to limit access to those reserves,” Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said. He said he hoped to increase partnership with China due to the closure of western markets.
OBSERVATION - Two points on the economic support from China. One, I think China didn’t expect the extent of Russian sanctions to be the degree that they are and seem to be increasing. China can’t handle that amount of economic support for Russia. Two, expect China to own most of Russia when they call in their chips for the support they have provided, just like China has other nations around the world.
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Ukraine -

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Award winning U.S. filmmaker Brent Renaud was shot and killed by Russian forces in Irpin, near Kyiv. Another journalist was wounded.

There are reports that progress is being made on Ukraine-Russia negotiations. Details firming up, but not fully announced.

Yavoriv training area in Lviv was targeted by Russian missiles overnight, least i8 to as many as 30 cruse missiles . Officials say at least 35 people were killed and 134 injured in the attack. The facility is about 15 km from polish border and has been used in the past for training with Nato instructors. There are rumors that some foreign volunteers in Ukraine could have been using the base was a hub for training to help Ukraine’s fight as well as train Ukrainian forces in the use of new weapons.
OBSERVATION - Could well be a warning shot by Russia who’ve already said they would be targeting Ukraine’s supply chain. The proximity to the Polish border was also a dangerous move - little room for targeting error. If the facility was being used for a degree of training, Russia may be hoping that it took out western advisors as well.

Kyiv front -
Intense bombardment of residential areas continue to create excessive civilian causalities. Towns like Irpin (west of Kyiv) have been turned largely to rubble.
Russia forces continue to struggle to get forces in position to surround and assault Kyiv. Fighting is violent in surrounding cities.

Recent reports that Russian VDV forces have attempted a river crossing of the Irpin River at Irpin. Uncertain information with reports that some VDV managed to enter the western portion of the city, but that the pontoon bridge site has been destroyed.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Little change. Threat of Russian advance to Kyiv from this front has been greatly diminished over the past couple of days. Some evidence that the Russia forces may be repositioning and preparing for a stronger assault on Kyiv. Withdrawal necessary for the purpose of refueling forces.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Two extremely extended Russian attack axes from Konotop and Sumy still in play. Ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks in NE Ukraine are still forcing Russia to redeploy forces away from offensive operations toward Kyiv to consolidate its long line of communication.

Continued Russian bombing/artillery attacks have rubbled the historic center of Khariv. Defenders continue to hold Russian forces at bay and infliction heavy losses.
A push from the southern most portion southward has reached the town Izium. Again, road bound assault that is now endanger of stalling as POL convoys get exposed to Ukraine raids.

Crimea Front -
Three major (predomantly road bound) pushes being 1) North - northwest along a Mykolaiv to Voznesensk axis. 2) Northward towards Zaporizhzhia and 3) eastward towards Mariupol. All appear to be stalled.

Evidence growing that Russian forces are attempting to bypass Mykolaiv to gain control of bridge like they did at Kherson.

Other reports that Ukraine is having some success breaking the siege of Mykolaiv, but not fully confirmed.

Crowds have taken to the streets of the southern Ukrainian port city of Kherson to protest its occupation by Russian forces.
It comes amid reports that Russia is planning to stage a sham referendum in the city so as to create another breakaway region, like those in Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine, and install a puppet administration.

The mayor of the southern city of Dniprorudne, Yevhen Matveyev, was arrested by Russian forces and replaced with a Pro-russian ‘mayor’ Galina Danilchenko, a former city council member. Danilchenko told residents not to take part in what she called “extremist actions”.

Watch continues on the amphibious force still holding off the west coast of Crimea.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -

Point regarding Russian offensive plans. I’ve read that the average Russian unit has a truck lift to take it to 90 miles (140km) from the closest large supply dump. They’ve noted that the vast majority of Russian advances (road bound) get no further than that from the border (if that much). Ukrainian interdiction of POL has been key to stopping these advances and then cutting them apart piecemeal as they sit with empty/near empty fuel tanks.

Russia increasing risk of direct confrontation with NATO as they strike further west and closer to the Polish border. As noted in previous posts, NATO CAP patrols and a over a dozen intel aircraft are patrolling the borders of Poland, Hungary, Romania and the Baltic States. Very little room for error.

Still strong NATO concerns over a possible chemical attack by Russia - with or without a ‘false flag’ event.

Russia is importing more fighters from Syria, it will take time to integrate them into the Russian operation. Don’t know if Russia will try to equip them with armor et al or just feed them in as a body pool to back fill depleted units. There will be communications issues, though many have some degree of Russian having worked with them in Syria. They will find that the Ukraine spring and operational environment is different from Syria - further degrading their effectiveness.

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Belarus -

Continued rumors that Belarus military is revolting against going into combat with Ukraine.
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Poland -

Polish President said in an interview with BBC that Russia using any weapons of mass destruction could be a “game-changer” and could make NATO think seriously about how to respond.
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Iran -
Iran claims responsibility for missile barrage last night that struck near U.S. targets in Erbil, Iraq. It is believe Iran used as many as 12 - Fateh-110 ballistic missiles with range of 300 km carrying 650 kg warheads. They were launched from Khasban military base Tabriz Iran.
Iran claims the missiles that targeted Erbil were in response to the killing of leaders of the Revolutionary Guards in Syria. The target appeared to be a US consulate building under construction and a US military base. No casualties were reported.
Status/impact to the nuclear deal is uncertain.

OBSERVATION - Iran just punched this into the RED zone. Attacks like this have been generally limited to Iranian proxy forces in Iraq. This time it was directly from Iranian lands and military facilities. Note worthy as well, these missiles are guided what a 30 foot CEP, they could have hit the consulate if they wanted, but doing so would technically be attacking US Territory - something they would want to avoid because that would be a direct act of war.
I’ve not seen any US reaction except the nothing of no casualties.
If the US doesn’t respond forcefully, Iran will see weakness and become even bolder in confronting the US directly and not via proxies. Iran used proxies during the Trump presidency as a buffer for deniability of any action.
ADDITIONAL NOTE - Israel conducted the air strike that took these IRGC senior officers out in the first place. I suspect that Iran isn’t done throwing stuff around.

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Iraq -

See Iran above RE missile strike
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Wuhan virus -

Allegedly “fully-vaccinated” and “boosted” Barack Obama has tested positive for Covid-19 and is showing symptoms.
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Economy -

Russia may halt wheat, corn, rye and barley exports on March 15th.
OBSERVATION - Combined with loss of grain exports from Ukraine, food prices across the globe will be hit hard. Middle east countries fed by Russia will be facing famine conditions absent any other support. Same for parts of Africa.
Europe will feel the pinch losing both sources of grain.
Meanwhile, China will continue its effort to corner grain markets by bidding higher than other countries.
US grain production is going to be impacted by continued drought conditions.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

Mayorkas released new rules on “extremism”. The new guidelines on extremist behavior include those who question the fraud in the 2020 election and anyone who question the regime’s talking points on COVID and its treatments including the mandates.
OBSERVATION - This is a continuation of the trend that started under 0bama to target Red America under weaponed Federal guidelines. This cocks the gun that biden could use in conjunction with the Patriot Act.

Amazon relocating 1,800 employees out of downtown Seattle due to spiking crime
Over the past few years, the area has seen increased open air drug use, fencing of stolen goods, shootings, carjackings and other violent crimes.
OBSERVATION - BLM/Antifa supported crime and violence continues to gut Seattle.

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China -

China warned about supporting Russia economically and militarily

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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands after over two weeks This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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RUMINT -
Russia has asked China for military aid to support its invasion of Ukraine, according to US officials. US officials told the Financial Times that it is suspected Russia may be running out of weaponry as the war enters its third week.
OBSERVATION - If Russia has requested military aid, such aid will take weeks to reach the Ukraine theatre in any substantial numbers.

Economic Impacts -
- Russian prosecutors have issued warnings to Western companies in Russia, including McDonald’s and IBM, threatening to arrest corporate leaders there who criticize the government or to seize assets of companies that withdraw from the country. (WSJ)
- Russia said on Sunday that it was counting on China to help it withstand the blow to its economy from sanctions, but the US has warned Beijing not to provide that support. The Russian finance minister, Anton Siluanov, said Moscow was unable to access $300bn of its $640bn in gold and foreign exchange reserves, but still held part of its reserves in the Chinese currency, the yuan.
- A Russian default on its debts after western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine is no longer “improbable”, but would not trigger a global financial crisis, the head of the International Monetary Fund said on Sunday.

Russia calling for fighters from Central Africa as well.

The Kremlin said on Monday that Russian forces could take full control of major Ukrainian cities and it had sufficient military clout to fulfil all of its aims in Ukraine without any help from China.
OBSERVATION - Yeh, right.
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Ukraine -

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Ukraine’s armed forces are launching counter-attacks against Russian troops in Ukraine’s southern Mykolaiv region and eastern Kharkiv region.
Russian thrusts towards Kyiv were repulsed yesterday after two attempts river crossings NE of the city.

Kyiv front -
Intense bombardment of residential areas of surrounding towns continue to create excessive civilian causalities. Towns like Irpin (west of Kyiv) have been turned largely to rubble.
Artillery struck central Kyiv for the first time in over a week, hitting an apartment complex. Russian advances to the NE and NW repulsed City reportedly has stockpiled at least 2 weeks of food and essentials if cut off by Russian forces. However, Russia still is stymied in surrounding the city.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Little change. Threat of Russian advance to Kyiv from this front has been stalled for many days. Reasons largely being a combination of lack of fuel / logistics and Ukraine nailing road bound Russian combat units at key choke points.

Continues Russian bombing/artillery attacks have rubbled the historic center of Khariv. Defenders continue to hold Russian forces at bay and infliction heavy losses.
A push from the southern most portion southward has reached the town Izium. Again, road bound assault that is now endanger of stalling as POL convoys get exposed to Ukraine raids.
Fighting around Khariv has forced some Russian forces back, but the town is a shell of its self from all the indiscriminate bombing.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
No significant changes from Mar 5 positions. Conditions in Mariupol continue to be desperate with bombing killing hundreds of civilians. Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of Russia’s Chechnya region and an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, said on Sunday that he had travelled into Ukraine to meet Chechen troops attacking Kyiv. Chechen units appear to be less than 20km east of Mariupol in the village of Bezimenne, Ukraine. - separatist held territory
OBSERVATION - Chechen forces Russia has recruited are known to be vicious and brutal. Rumors are that they are seeking to capture children to hold hostage. But apart from that terror aspect, they haven’t turned the war effort out of the separatist held zone.
Ukraine reports more success attacking Russian and separatist units allegedly inflicting severe casualties. Unconfirmed but fighting to relieve Mariupol has been fierce the past several days.

Crimea Front -
Three major (predominately road bound) pushes being 1) North - northwest along a Mykolaiv to Voznesensk axis. 2) Northward towards Zaporizhzhia and 3) eastward towards Mariupol. All three are still stalled. Combat continues in Mykolaiv but has reduced from yesterday.

Watch continues on the amphibious force still holding off the west coast of Crimea.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -
Peace talks resume today.

I can only say that there will be more of the same. Intense, bombing/artillery strikes on civilian residential areas to try to break the will of the nation. Russian ground forces suffering from lack of logistics, who’s supply chain is getting hit by bypassed Ukraine forces. Russia will attempt to break the stalemate around Kyiv but I think their forces are logistically hamstrung as well has suffering from heavy casualties.
I also expect more bombing by RUAF, dangerous to pilots exposed to continued Ukraine ADA threats, but necessary to bomb civilian targets sufficiently.
Also expect Ru heavy bombers to lob more cruse missiles at major cities and potentially targets in W Ukraine they think maybe used to funnel replacement munitions to Uk forces.

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Europe / NATO General -

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg appears to have stated yesterday that if any Harm comes to NATO Convoy’s that will be delivering Supplies to Ukraine, that it will be considered a Violation of Article 5 of the NATO Charter and the Alliance will React.

NATO joint exercises in Norway begins tomorrow. Cold Response 22 is a long-planned, defensive exercise bringing together thousands of troops from NATO Allies and partners, testing their ability to work together in cold weather conditions across Norway – on land, in the air and at sea

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Iran -

The United States condemned on Sunday an Iranian attack on Iraq’s northern city of Erbil and backs Baghdad and governments across the region in the face of threats from Tehran, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said.

Iran claims it attacked a Mosad training facility in Erbil.
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Iraq -

See Iran above re: Erbil

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Syria -

Russian jets returned to the skies over Idlib after a notable absence. Doing normal combat patrols.

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Wuhan virus -

The effectiveness of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine against Omicron “declined rapidly for children, particularly those 5-11 years,” according to a study released February 28.
The authors of the study still recommended the vaccine for that age group, stating it was protective against severe disease. They also proposed the recommended dose for 5- to 11-year-olds was too small, suggesting a higher dose might solve the problem.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.02.25.22271454v1.full.pdf
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Economy -

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT -

The View has called for Tucker and Tulsi Gabbard to be investigated by DOJ for opposing biden policy on Putin and even go as far as recommending prison.
NO First Amendment for others.
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Domestic Terror -

Homeland Security Today reported in late February that ISIS had posted a video online urging Muslims in the United States to join “ISIS North America.” “To those who want to try,” the video said, “to my brothers following in the path of the Khilafa [caliphate] in America I urge you to come join our group. This new group will operate in the United States to surprise the murtad [apostates, ex-Muslims] in their own lands. The name of this group will be named ISIS-NA (Islamic State of Iraq & Sham [the Levant] – North America).”
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China -

Approximately 51 million now in lockdown including the port of Shenzhen - one of the world’s busiest container post is now also locked down, expect a fresh round of cascading chaos in Transpacific supply chains, just in time to join the snarled Transatlantic supply chains as the Ukraine war cripples all global seaborne traffic.

The Hang Seng tech index has plunged 61% from its peak last year. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index of U.S.-traded stocks has fared even worse, down 68%, and with another bad day or two, the peak-to-trough decline could surpass its 72% crash in the 2008 global financial crisis.

On Monday 13 Chinese PLA aircraft breached Taiwan’s air defense identification zone - something which at this point has long been a weekly - and almost daily - occurrence.

China has struck a deal with the Taliban to begin mining one of the richest copper deposits in the world. Afghanistan’s other mineral assets will also be on their shopping list, and the Taliban seem all too happy to oblige.
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North Korea -

US Forces Korea says its air defence artillery brigade at the Osan airbase has intensified exercises following recent missile tests by North Korea
There is growing speculation the North could test its largest intercontinental ballistic missile as soon as this week, at full range. Impact would be in the Pacific somewhere.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands after over two weeks

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Russian assaults across the board have all stalled out.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 100% of the combat force Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, There are no more reserves in theater for Russian forces to draw upon. Additional Syrian fighters are in the process of being brought in to fight, but that will take time to move, organize and equip.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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RUMINT -
Among the assistance Russia requested of China was prepackaged, nonperishable military food kits, known in the US as “meal, ready-to-eat,” or MREs, according to two sources familiar with the matter.
OBSERVATION - China will own Russia when this is said and done. China playing Putin just like it has other countries. Extend a line of credit knowing full well the other country can’t pay it off and when they default, China comes in and takes hard assets (mines, airport, sea ports etc) is deems necessary for its benefit) and leaves the country fourth dependent on it for further aid.

Economic Impacts -
- Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a law allowing Russian airlines to keep foreign aircraft for use on domestic flights, according to state news agency TASS. Moscow had signaled last week it could take such action in response to far-reaching Western sanctions. The new law, TASS said, would allow Russian airlines to retain and operate planes rented from foreign aircraft lessors that have pulled out of the market and canceled contracts because of the sanctions. OBSERVATION - Forget about post war investing in Russia with this action.
- UK imposes more sanctions on Russia: - Adds 350 new sanctions listings - Adds 9 new listings under cyber sanctions government - Announces asset freeze and travel ban against Andrey Melnichenko, Petr Aven, Mikhail Fridman, Sergei Shoigu and Dmitry Medvedev
- Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi warns China does not want to be impacted by economic sanctions on Russia, state media says, as pressure grows on Beijing to withdraw support from Moscow. “China is not a party to the crisis, still less wants to be affected by the sanctions”

Ukraine is requesting that Russia be ordered to end its war and withdraw troops from the country. The International Court of Justice will issue a ruling on March 16.

Is time running out for Russia. Information from U.K. defense sources, suggests that after another two weeks the Russian forces may struggle to hold the ground they captured in Ukraine. They suggest that by then the equipment and personnel losses will make it hard for Russia to sustain any ground offensives or defense.
OBSERVATION - Under normal conditions and current trends this would be the common sense evaluation of the situation. Putin bet on a quick capitulation of Ukraine and was not prepared for a long haul with heavy Russian losses. Evidenced by call for Belarus, Chechen, Syrian, and Kazakistan military support (not to mention China) Not figured in to this is Putin’s mental state that he may force the conflict to continue and defeat Ukraine by attrition of civilian lives. He has committed 100% of ore preiavasion prepositioned forces and any reserves are coming in in bits and pieces.
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Ukraine -

RUNINT -

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Almost all of Russia’s assaults on Ukrainian cities remain stalled. Use of cruse and ballistic missiles has increased, targeting residential and some industrial areas.

Ukrainian air force claiming in a statement on Telegram that a Russian drone crossed into Poland before going back into Ukraine and being shot down by air defences

Kyiv front -
Intense bombardment of down town Kyiv stuck in full force last night, with the most intense round of cruse missile attacks since the start of the war. Many residential apartment complexes were hit and totally rubbled. Curfew to be imposed in Kyiv starting 8pm today and before 8am 17th March, “today is difficult and dangerous moment” - Mayor Klitchko

Reports of an attempt by Russian forces to breach the defensive line along the Irpin river north of Kyiv were thwarted by Ukraine forces.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Little change. Threat of Russian advance to Kyiv from this front has been stalled for many days. Ukrainian forces reportedly forcing Russian back in key areas of the region.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Two extremely extended Russian attack axes from Konotop and Sumy still in play but are stalled. Ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks in NE Ukraine are still forcing Russia to consolidate its long line of communication.
About 50 Russian vehicles moved southeast of Kharkiv, apparently seeking to link up with Russian forces in the south, a US official said. They appear intent on cutting off Ukrainian troops fighting in the eastern part of the country.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
No significant changes from Mar 5 positions. Conditions in Mariupol continue to be desperate with bombing killing hundreds of civilians. Russian forces abducted the mayor of Melitopol, Ukraine to Russian-occupied Luhansk, where he is being accused of “terrorism,” the Kyiv Independent reported, citing the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration.

Watch continues on the amphibious force still holding off the west coast of Crimea. However, Odessa has started radioing warnings of mined coastal waters. No word if mines are Russia or Ukraine - but IMHO Ukrainian . Could be a major reason Russia has held off trying to conduct an amphibious operation at this time.
WITH THAT SAID - New reports of 14 Russian naval vessels, including 5 landing ship, have moved from the coast of western Crimea towards the Odessa region.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -

I can only say that there will be more of the same. Intense, bombing/artillery strikes on civilian residential areas to try to break the will of the nation. These attacks look like they are going to focus on Kyiv more than other regions. Concerns continue that Putin will use NBC weapons/false flag to break the stalemate. Questions remain to see what other actions NATO will take to break the stalemate as well. It appears as long as Ukraine can get resupplied, they have the will to fight.

Russian ground forces continue to suffer from lack of logistics. This doesn’t appear to be resolving itself - freezing combat operations for over a week now.

I also expect more bombing by RUAF, dangerous to pilots exposed to continued Ukraine ADA threats, but necessary to bomb civilian targets sufficiently.
Also expect Ru heavy bombers to lob more cruse missiles at major cities and potentially targets in W Ukraine they think maybe used to funnel replacement munitions to Uk forces.

CAPTURE OF KYIV POSSIBLE? -
If one takes historical examples of siege and capture of major cities, if is virtually impossible with all of the forces Russia has committed to the fight to take Kyiv. Only a portion of the approximately 180,000 soldiers Russia has committed are actively trying to encircle Kyiv - a far too small number for that task, let along try to force the city capture. This is probably why Putin has shifted to the level the city tactic Russia has used in the past to avoid urban combat.

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Europe / NATO General -

The leaders of NATO may meet in Brussels as soon as next week for what would be an extraordinary meeting amid Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine according to several sources. A Biden trip has not been finalized, nor has the NATO leaders meeting.
RELATED ?? The are reports that the United States Government is Preparing to Implement an Extreme Sanctions Package on the Russian Federation including a Full Trade Embargo and Banning Russian Ships from Strategic International Waterways like the Panama Canal or Strait of Gibraltar.
OBSERVATION - A great deal of speculation over these items yesterday. Not sure if they are related but “extraordinary” would fit the description of a link.

The prime ministers of the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovenia are traveling to Kyiv by train on Tuesday to show support for the country on behalf of the EU, the first foreign leaders to visit the Ukrainian capital since Russia invaded last month.
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Israel -

Massive cyber attack hit Israeli government websites. Security official: Tonight’s cyber attack is the largest cyber attack carried out against Israel, and it is estimated that a country or a large organization is behind it. “Systems were restored by the end of the day.
OBSERVATION - Very little doubt Iran was behind this attack. They better hope they’ve got their data backed up.

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Lebanon -

Lebanon is on a short time-clock to avert a food crisis catastrophe. Ukraine supplies 60% of its wheat, but Lebanon has only a month’s worth of storage due to the loss of grain elevators in the mega blast last year that hit the port. It takes 7 days to import from Ukraine, but about 25 from the US.
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Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -

See China and mining above.
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________________________________

Wuhan virus -

The Senate passed a measure that would force the repeal of the federal face mask mandate for public transit passed by a 57-40 margin. biden has vowed to veto it.
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Economy -

Oil, which recently hit record highs, took a steep dip and saw some heavy losses on Tuesday, following on the heels of a Monday dip.
Among the factors contributing to the swoon: talks between Russia and Ukraine, a potential slowdown in Chinese demand for oil, and trade activity preceding a widely anticipated rate hike by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.
NOTE - Doubt we’ll see equivalent lowering of prices as the pump any time soon though.

Bankrate’s 30-year mortgage rate rose to 4.43%, up 55% under Biden.
OBSERVATION - This could signal the puncture of the housing bubble.

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Biden / Harris watch -

Biden will travel to Brussels later this month for the NATO summit

Zelensky essentially told the world that biden is not acting as the leader of the world and went over his head to appeal to the US people.
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North Korea -

NK attempted to launch an ICBM in a test last night. The missile exploded at an altitude of less than 20 km (12 miles) and debris fell in the Pyongyang area; no word on damage or injuries. Reports of a reddish brown plume from the missile indicate it was a liquid fuel rocket.

US, South Korea could resume military exercises involving long-range US bombers such as the B-52H or B-1B in the event North Korea following this ICBM test. US hasn’t deployed a long-range bomber to the Korean Peninsula since 2017.
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Japan -

Fumio Kishida, Japan’s prime minister, said that southern Kuril Islands are a sovereign part of his country, and not part of Russia, which has controlled the group of islands since 1945. Speaking in the Diet earlier this week, Kishida told lawmakers the Kuril Islands are “original territories of Japan”.
The islands have been a point of controversy between Japan and the Russia for decades. Moscow took control of the islands after World War II in 1945. In recent years, the Japanese government had refrained from referring to the islands as its “original territories” in order to avoid upsetting the Russian government.
However, following the global anti-Moscow sentiment since the invasion of Ukraine, the Japanese government has reinstated its historic claim on the silands.
“The Northern Territories belong to Japan. They are the territory on which Japan has sovereignty,” Kishida said.
In fact, on 29 February, on the second day of the Russian invasion, Japan’s foreign minister, Hideki Uyama, even went so far to say that Russia had “occupied” the southern part of the Kuril Islands, thereby violating international law.

OBSERVATION - Japan sees Russia as wounded and vulnerable on this issue, looking to exploit the current situation to reinforce its claims.

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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands after over three weeks of fighting

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Russian assaults across the board have all stalled out.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 100% of the combat force Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, It is becoming more and more apparent Russia has been scrambling to get more combat forces into theater and support those already committed.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********

Russia is suffering serious losses that can no longer be poo-poo’d as propaganda -
- Confirmed - Russian Army Major General Oleg Mityaev was killed in fighting yesterday. He’s a commander of the 150th motorized rifle division.
OBSERVATION - This is the 4th general killed in this conflict in a space of 20 days. - It is estimated that there were 20 generals in the forces at the start of conflict, so to lose 20% of your senior officers is unreal.
- Not independently verified but compelling based on ground conditions. Russia has lost up to 40 per cent of the units (not mission capable status - not totally destroyed) it sent into Ukraine when Moscow invaded its neighbor in February, the Ukrainian military’s general staff said on Wednesday. The troops were either completely destroyed or have lost their combat capabilities, according to the daily bulletin, which did not give concrete numbers. The information could not be verified independently.
- UK military intelligence says so many Russian troops are dying by the Ukrainian resistance that it’s likely struggling to conduct offensive operations and is seeking replacements. Russia is bringing troops from Eastern Mil District, Pacific Fleet, Syria, Armenia, and private contractors to hold ground.
- Russian units from the 4th Guards occupation base in Tskhinvali are leaving the region through the Roki tunnel and heading to fight in Ukraine. In addition to Russia’s 58th Army units, volunteers from the so-called South Ossetia are reportedly also leaving for Ukraine.

SUMMARY - People will quibble over final numbers , however, the fact that Russia appears to be desperately seeking more troops and equipment to support the fight lends credibility to the loss claims.
Time is also running out for Russia. It will take time to get these units assembled and in place - the time frame depends upon just how much these forces need equipment on arrival or show up with their stuff. Both personnel and equipment are needed as armor and other losses have been intense. This is a component of Russia’s failed logistics support - they can’t keep the current forces supplied, it is questionable how successfully they can prepare these other forces to enter battle as well.

Economic Impacts -
- Russian stock market continues to be closed.

Russia announces leaving the Council of Europe, hours before its expected expulsion. It means that Russian citizens will not be able to bring cases to the European Court of Human Rights, and the Russian government can re-introduce the death penalty.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 20th show a warming trend into the 50’s . Conditions maintain for muddy off road conditions, but no forecast for any rain which would basically put a nail into any maneuvering off road.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Over 1000 misslies (cruse and ballistic ) have been fired at Ukraine by Russia since the start of the conflict. They are being used primarily to target residents and civilian areas of cities.

Russian naval activity - See Crimea front discussion

Russian ground forces remain essentially stalled and combat ineffective with the only exception being the Crimea front with some movement on the Dombass region. Ukrainian counter attacks have been largely successful inflicting more Russian personnel and equipment losses and forcing /Russians to pull back in many sectors.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke to Congress this morning requesting further aid and support for the Ukrainian war efforts. He reiterated the request for a no fly zone over Ukraine.

Almost all of Russia’s assaults on Ukrainian cities remain stalled. Use of cruse and ballistic missiles has increased, targeting residential and some industrial areas.

Kyiv front -
Intense fighting in surrounding suburbs of Kyiv’s northwest as Russian elements have attempted to resume some degree of offensive operations. There are unconfirmed reports that Ukraine has out maneuvered some of those units and pressed them into kill zones.

The US embassy in Kyiv says Russian forces have shot and killed 10 people standing in line for bread in the Ukrainian city of Chernihiv, following the emergence of graphic footage of the aftermath earlier today.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Two extremely extended Russian attack axes from Konotop and Sumy still in play but are stalled. Ukraine success in reducing the pressure from the Northern /Front (above) has freed forces to start more intensive operations against the stalled, road bound forces from the east. More Ukraine counter attacks around Sumy and Khariv have forced Russian forces back.
Russian bombing wrath retuned to Kharkiv last night, with intensive bombing in its residential neighborhoods.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Russian/separatist forces managed to push southwestward from the vicinity of Donetsk in what appears to be an effort to cut off Ukraine forces fighting to relieve the defenders of Mariupol. Conditions in Mariupol continue to be desperate with bombing killing hundreds of civilians. In another gross violation of the rules of war - war crime acts, Russian troops seized a hospital in Mariupol and took about 500 people hostage during another assault on the southern port city late Tuesday, regional leader Pavlo Kyrylenko said.
Russians troops drove 400 people from neighboring houses into Regional Intensive Care Hospital, Kyrylenko said on the messaging app Telegram. About 100 doctors and patients also are believed to be inside, he said.
OBSERVATION - Chechen forces have been operating in the Separatist Donbass region. This kind of operation is their MO to create terror and why Russia had placed them there. These are special kinds of thugs who would make the world a better place if they were dead.

Crimea Front -
Three major (predominately road bound) pushes being 1) North - northwest along a Mykolaiv to Voznesensk axis. 2) Northward towards Zaporizhzhia and 3) eastward towards Mariupol. Only movement has been Russian advances on the northern side of the Dnieper River from the Kherson region northwest towards Kryvyi Rih.

Russian troops deployed tear gas and opened fire at protesters in Skadovs’k.

Watch continues on the amphibious force still holding off the west coast of Crimea. Yesterday, satellite images showed 14 ships of the Russian fleet sailing towards the city of Odesa, among them a 120-meter landing ship Pyotr Morgunov. Results were the Russian warships shelled the sea coast in the area of Lebedevka, Sanzheyka, Zatoka and Belenky. - southwest of Odessa These were long distance shots, probably trying to stay out of range of Ukraine anti ship missiles effective range while probing the coastal defenses.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -

Barring a significant event to free up Russian ground forces to maneuver against Ukraine defenders, I see very little changes on the ground, with continued high Russian casualty and equipment loss rates.

Air attacks will continue with likely greater intensity, relying on cruse missiles to target residential areas of major cities like Kyiv, Mariupol, Khariv, etc. /Russian close air support will continue to suffer at the hands of the abundant, shoulder fired SAMs that take several jets out every day as well as numerous helicopters.

The biggest potential operation on the radar is an amphibious operation to the southwest of Odessa. Last night’s shelling/rocket attack from the naval fleet was likely a probing effort. However, this would be a strongly opposed operation that not only will cost a lot of men, but endanger surface ships as well. The area is well fortified and if Russia were to succeed, will need coordinated air support (lacking from Russia so far) as well as pressure on ground by forces coming either out of Crimea ore even the Transdniestria region of Moldova. With out those efforts to dilute coastal defenses, such an amphibious operation is perilous.

Impacts from Zelensky’s address to congress and the American people will take a couple days to be fully revealed. It definitely put pressure on biden to fish or cut bait.

It is becoming a race - can Russia muster enough reinforcements to swing the war without having to resort to even more devastating tactics (NBC) OR can Ukraine receive enough weapons and material to not only continue its defense but inflict even more devastating losses in personnel and equipment on Russian forces.

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Europe / NATO General -

The prime ministers of Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovenia have returned safely back to Poland on Wednesday after a visit to Kyiv meant to show support for Ukraine as it faces heavy bombardment.

A NATO Summit is scheduled for 24 March at NATO HQ. It is scheduled to address the Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, our strong support for Ukraine, and further strengthening NATO’s deterrence & defense.

NATO is set to tell its military commanders on Wednesday to draw up plans for new ways to deter Russia following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, including more troops and missile defenses in eastern Europe, officials and diplomats said.

An international peacekeeping mission should be sent to operate in Ukraine, the leader of Poland’s ruling party said on Tuesday during a press conference in Kyiv alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. “I think that it is necessary to have a peace mission - NATO, possibly some wider international structure - but a mission that will be able to defend itself, which will operate on Ukrainian territory,” Jaroslaw Kaczynski said during the conference, which was broadcast on Polish television.
OBSERVATION - A peace keeping force may likely be part of the March 24th NATO meeting.

US & NATO allies are sending several surface-to-air missiles systems to Ukraine. A senior US official tells me these systems include Soviet-era SA-8, SA-10, SA-12 and SA-14 mobile air defense systems, w/range higher than Stingers, giving capability to hit cruise missiles.
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Iran -

IRGC unveiled a underwater-drone-torpedo.

In a sign that getting the P5+1 nuclear deal with Iran through Congress might be difficult, if not impossible, 49 out of 50 Republican Senators have announced they will not back any deal that doesn’t limit Iran’s missile program and “confront Iran’s support for terrorism.”
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Wuhan virus -

The Government of New South Wales, Australia had been producing a weekly Covid-19 Statistical Report, but they have failed to update the figures for over a month now with the available data showing the number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths by vaccination status up to 5th Feb 22. Data indicates fully vaccinated population accounted for 4 in every 5 Covid-19 cases, 9 in every 10 hospitalizations, 9 in every 10 ICU admissions, and 4 in every 5 Covid-19 deaths.
OBSERVATION - Interpretation of this data will be subject to a lot of scrutiny but if it holds up is incredibly damning.

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Economy -

Oil prices climbed on Thursday after the International Energy Agency (IEA) said markets could lose three million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude and refined products from April. The supply loss would be far greater than an expected one million bpd per day drop in demand triggered by higher fuel prices, the IEA said in a report on Wednesday.
Benchmark Brent crude futures gained $1.8, or 1.9%, to $99.86 a barrel by 0408 GMT, after falling for three consecutive trading sessions.
OBSERVATION - Oil prices will continue to be volatile due to uncertainingy of the Ukraine war and economic shudders from sanctions spreading across a weak post-wuhan recovery.

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Invasion of Illegals -

Illegal migrant apprehensions in February were up over 60% over what they were last February. U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reports the February 2022 number of migrant apprehensions is 164,973. During the same month in 2021, the number reported was 101,099 encounters at the border.
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Biden / Harris watch -

biden called Putin a “war criminal”. Putin was not amused.

biden’s response to Zelenski’s appeal was anemic at best.

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CW2/Domestic violence -

Woke Yale Law students were filmed threatening two guest speakers and staff at a free speech event where a conservative guest successfully defended a Supreme Court decision of a Colorado baker who refused to make a cake for a gay wedding ceremony.
Police were forced to escort the guest speakers from Yale Law School’s free speech debate after more than 100 students intimidated the conservative panelist by yelling they would ‘literally fight you, b***h’ and caused a riot in the auditorium by blocking the hall’s exits.
The chaos broke out last week at the start of a panel featuring progressive Monica Miller from the American Humanist Association and Kristen Waggoner, a conservative Christian of the Alliance Defending Freedom (ADF) nonprofit.

OBSERVATION - This kind of campus ‘cancelling’ has dramatically increased over the past few months. This seems to be mirroring the actions on liberal campuses in 2016 which later expanded to the riots of 2019.

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China -

Five people were charged with stalking, harassing and spying on US residents on behalf of China’s secret police, the US Attorney’s office for the Eastern District of New York announced on Wednesday

China continues to walk the fine line between supporting Russia and facing associated global sanctions reaching back to China from Russian sanctions.

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North Korea -

No comments from NK on the failed rocket test.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands now entering the 4th week of war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Russian assaults across the board have all stalled out.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 100% of the combat force Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, It is becoming more and more apparent Russia has been scrambling to get more combat forces into theater and support those already committed.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********

There has been a silence out of Russia from voices other than the official Russian mouthpieces for Putin. Russia has shut down many social media outlets because of all the information on the Ukraine war and civilian response of protests. Hammer has come down on any dissent.

Vladimir Putin sent a chilling warning to the West and oligarchs telling ‘scum’ traitors that Russians will ‘spit them out like a midge that flew into their mouths’ - as he claimed Western ‘attempts to have global dominance’ is coming to an end.
The Russian President, speaking in a bombastic televised address from the Kremlin , warned the West would use ‘those who earn their money here, but live over there’ as a ‘fifth column’ to ‘divide our society’. It is the latest in the propaganda pushed by Moscow in a bid to justify their invasion of Ukraine to Russian citizens - including claims the war is about ‘de-nazifying’ the country and preventing a genocide of minorities waged by Kyiv. Putin called for a “self-purification” to rid his country of anyone who questions his invasion.
OBSERVATION - Shocking address giving many fuel to question Putin’s state of mind.

Biden’s reference to Russian leader Vladimir Putin as a “war criminal” over his military operation in Ukraine is “unacceptable and unforgivable,” the Kremlin says.

International Court of Justice in The Hague orders Russia to suspend invasion of Ukraine

More than 7,000 Russian troops have been killed in less than three weeks of fighting, according to conservative US estimates. Using a factor of 4 for wounded - 28,000, total is around 35,000 - devastating losses by any measure. Verified Russian equipment losses seem to support these casualty figure.

Uzbekistan, a Central Asian republic with close ties to Russia, called on Thursday for a diplomatic resolution of the conflict in Ukraine and said it would not recognize Moscow-backed separatist statelets there. Uzbekistan isn’t a member of CSTO.

Observers have noted unusual passenger / cargo aircraft deployments from Moscow to various points east, many going to Novosibirsk (HQ 41st CAA). 8 planes took off within a very short window. Included in the flights are key national level C3 aircraft. Much speculation on if this represents distribution of national leadership in anticipation of a potential nuclear scenario. Key aircraft -
- RuAF Tupolev Tu-214SR RSD79 relay is orbiting to provide secure communications.
- Russian Air Force Tupolev Tu-214PU RSD78 airborne command post
There was an exodus of 4 private jets out of Moscow towards Dubai this same time frame too.
OBSERVATIONS - Some observers see this as very close to a normal action seen on a nearly daily basis. Perhaps the thing that grabbed interest was the eastward deployments - likely due to air space restrictions. This may be a big nothing burger but good to keep eyes on this active and document it - variations could be an indicator of something more serious.

Economic Impacts -
- Closure of alternative news sources is hiding the impacts of global sanctions on the Russian population.
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Ukraine -

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Total refugee count has exceeded 3 million.

Over 1000 missiles (cruse and ballistic ) have been fired at Ukraine by Russia since the start of the conflict. Some analysts believe that the missile consumption rate is far beyond what Russia had planned on and has essentially depleted its newer munitions. They believe Russia is relying more on older, less accurate models which are adequate for striking large targets like residential apartments.

Russian naval activity - See Crimea front discussion

Russian ground forces remain essentially stalled and combat ineffective on all fronts. The Crimea front has suffered some severe set backs, see below. Ukrainian counter attacks have been largely successful inflicting more Russian personnel and equipment losses and forcing Russians to pull back in many sectors. US and UK intelligence sources note that Ukrainian command and control is effectively coordinating combat operations across the country.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Ukrainan counter attacks have stopped the Russian push on Kyiv and forced them to withdraw back to the north and towards Chernihv. This places this axis of attack out of the Kyiv picture for now and incapable to join up with the force from the NE Front’s attempt on the northeast and eastern margin of Kyiv.
The US embassy in Kyiv says Russian forces have shot and killed 10 people standing in line for bread in the Ukrainian city of Chernihiv, following the emergence of graphic footage of the aftermath earlier today.
Heavy artillery and bombing of Chernihiv and surrounding towns by Russian forces. However, this is one region where Ukraine has had significant success counter attacking Russian forces.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Two extremely extended Russian attack axes from Konotop and Sumy still in play but are stalled. Ukraine success in reducing the pressure from the Northern /Front (above) has freed forces to start more intensive operations against the stalled, road bound forces from the east. More Ukraine counter attacks around Sumy and Khariv have forced Russian forces back. There has been little heard from the two attack axes and I suspect that they have met a similar fate as the assault on Voznesenk (see Crimea below).
Russian bombing wrath retuned to Kharkiv last night, with intensive bombing in its residential neighborhoods.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Russian/separatist push southwestward from the vicinity of Donetsk in what appears to be an effort to cut off Ukraine forces fighting to relieve the defenders of Mariupol has stalled. Conditions in Mariupol continue to be desperate with bombing killing hundreds of civilians. In another gross violation of the rules of war - war crime acts.

Russian troops bombed a theatre in the Ukrainian city of Mariupol where as many as 1,200 civilians including women, children and the elderly, were taking refuge. On parking / plaza areas adjacent to the building was written in large letters “Children” in hopes Russia would not bomb the building. Officials said the theater’s bomb shelter, where hundreds of civilians had been hiding when an airstrike hit, withstood the attack. Survivors are believed to be trapped underneath.

Ukrainian President Zelensky confirmed that mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, was freed from Russian captivity following the exchange of 9 Russian POWs

Crimea Front -
Three major (predominately road bound) pushes being 1) North - northwest along a Mykolaiv to Voznesensk axis. 2) Northward towards Zaporizhzhia and 3) eastward towards Mariupol. Only movement has been Russian advances on the northern side of the Dnieper River from the Kherson region northwest towards Kryvyi Rih.

New evidence of a Ukraine artillery strike at the airport in Kherson, which Russian troops had seized early in the war, that they claimed destroyed 30 Russian helicopters has been verified by satellite imagery. That claim was met with initial skepticism due to lack of evidence. Satellite photos taken afterward by Planet Labs PBC show helicopters and vehicles on fire at the air base. At least 22 helicopters are shown to be destroyed and many on fire. Control over Kherson allows Russia to restore fresh water supplies to Crimea; Ukraine cut off the water after Russia annexed the peninsula in 2014.

Post conflict review of the battle at Voznesenk (axis #1 above) on March 2-3 has come out in the WSJ. I noted the action in posts -
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4026005/posts?page=158#158
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4026005/posts?page=164#164

In summary, Russian forces were looking to secure another river crossing to facilitate an encircling ground assault on Odessa following the failure to seize bridges at Mykolaiv. An air assault to try to quickly secure the Voznesenk bridge was to have a BTG join up with it. The air assault failed and by the time the BTG rolled into town, local national guard and civilian militias were ready and essentially took the BTG completely out of action, along with the airborne forces. The BTG was essentially destroyed and surviving Russians retreated at least 40 miles back towards Mykolaiv and haven’t pushed back to date. The WSJ article goes into the the massive clean- up of well over 500 (and counting) dead Russian bodies being bagged and put into a freezer for temporary storage. The destruction of this Russian probe along this axis isn’t well depicted on the wikipedia battle map except for the max push date.
Before you start - there may be a degree of Ukraine propaganda in the article, however, the simple fact that the attack was crushed and the associated details point to an example of how lighter Ukraine forces are tearing up Russian forces in other areas as well.

Watch continues on the amphibious force still holding off the west coast of Crimea. Failure to gain ground to encircle Odessa is likely to delay any amphibious operation, unless Russian believes those attacks have diverted enough assets away from shore defenses to risk a forced landing.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -

Air attacks will continue with likely greater intensity, relying on cruse missiles to target residential areas of major cities like Kyiv, Mariupol, Khariv, etc. Russian close air support will continue to suffer at the hands of the abundant, shoulder fired SAMs that take several jets out every day as well as numerous helicopters.

There continue to be rumors that the stalled Russian offensive is serving to get them ready for another push on Kyiv and other key cities. Those rumors have been floating for nearly three weeks now. The probable loss of 34,000 soldiers (dead and wounded) and corresponding amounts of armor and other equipment would suggest the need for a readjustment of Russian forces and critical reinforcement / resupply efforts. But it also involves withdrawing depleted forces from the ‘front’ lines under fire, assembling new units and receiving reinforcements - all actions under fire by Ukraine forces. So far the Russian forces show they are incapable of executing such a complex operation and committed forces essentially frozen in place.

At this stage Russia needs a hail Mary of some to break the
quagmire they have gotten themselves into. The hail mary options are not pleasant and may quickly drive NATO into the conflict.
___________________________________

Belarus -

Massive explosions in a number of cities in Belarus. Residents of Baranavichy, Luninets, Stolin, Hantsavichy, Slutsk, Kletsk and other cities reported sounds similar to explosions. Most believe they were sonic booms from Russian aircraft. Other speculation was an artillery exercise. Most likely sonic booms ..

______________________________________

Europe / NATO General -

Britain announces that a UN Security Council emergency meeting will be held on Russia’s war crimes in Ukraine.

Moldova called on Russia to withdraw from Transnistria. Moldovan President Maia Sandu called for the removal of munitions and “complete and unconditional withdrawal of Russian forces” from the unrecognized breakaway region during a UN General Assembly meeting on March 16.
OBSERVATION - Transnistria based Russian forces are potential reinforcements for an operation to seize Odessa, but their numbers are relatively small and they would face the same buzz saw other Russian forces have. Isolated, they would have a very limited capability to sustain an offensive into Ukraine.

biden promised a lot of Russian derived ADA systems - systems in eastern European NATO countries - Ukraine. However, it is apparent that biden’s people have done very little to coordinate the transfer of equipment to Ukraine prior to his ‘announcement’ yesterday.
____________________________________

Iran -

The US is reportedly weighing a move to delist Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terror organization, as it moves closer to reviving the nuclear agreement with Tehran.
OBSERVATION - Iran playing the US like a fiddle, essentially getting everything they want. Removal of terrorist designation would give IRGC a lot of maneuver room to move internationally and coordinator with proxy forces.

__________________________________

Black Swans -

South Africa facing a locust infestation of “biblical proportion” that is threatening a substantial acreage of crops. Just adds to the overall pressure on global food supplies this year

Threat Trending Code Color Key

BLACK - An area worth noting, but not immediately impacting on US safety
BLUE - Incidents increasing and needing further monitoring, low threat to the US
YELLOW - This is the moderate concern level. Definitely becoming a threat but in the longer term.
ORANGE - A definite threat in both short term and long term. Some active events occurring
RED - Active and ongoing. Examples of this would be 2020 rioting, etc.

_____________________________

Globalism / Great Reset - YELLOW trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Monitoring efforts to key off the Ukraine war to push for their global goals.
________________________________

Wuhan virus - YELLOW *last updated 12-10-21*
DISCUSSION - News largely overwhelmed by Ukraine reporting. Some rules are being silently locked in while other mandates are being removed/suspended. The distraction of war is allowing the remnants of mandates to be hidden for later use - as needed.

Fauci has emerged from whatever cave or crypt he’s been hiding in the last several weeks because he’s so excited to let us all know that we should put our masks back on.
_____________________________

Economy - RED * Updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - Fed raised rates .25% with increased inflation pressures due in part to housing and gasoline.

Growth in U.S. retail sales slowed in February after surging a month earlier, suggesting that consumers tempered their spending in some categories as inflation limited purchasing power. The value of overall retail purchases increased 0.3 per cent, after an upwardly revised 4.9 per cent gain in January, Commerce Department figures showed Wednesday. The February advance was led by a 5.3 per cent jump in spending for gasoline. Excluding gas stations, sales fell 0.2 per cent last month. The figures aren’t adjusted for inflation.

U.S. and global oil prices rebounded over $100/barrel on new concerns about supplies. As noted before, prices will be volatile for the foreseeable future.
______________________________

Invasion of Illegals - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Illegals continue to push across the border with record numbers of intercepts

Biden administration officials are quietly bracing for a potential influx of more than 170,000 migrants at the southern border when a Trump-era COVID policy that allows for instant expulsions ends, Axios reports.
Border authorities have been relying on a federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) order known as Title 42 to turn away migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border since March 2020. According to Axios, the CDC reviews the order every 60 days, with the next review coming up in early April. Reuters reported last week that the Biden administration is leaning toward ending Title 42, according to two U.S. officials familiar with the matter.
OBSERVATION - This would open wide the flood gates into an uncontrollable rush of illegals across the border.

The United States authorized the departure of families and some personnel Wednesday at the U.S. consulate in the Mexican border city of Nuevo Laredo. The move came after drug cartel gunmen fired at the U.S. consulate building in Nuevo Laredo, across the border from Laredo, Texas, during Sunday night. “The Department of State authorized the departure of non-emergency U.S. government personnel and eligible family members from the U.S. Consulate General in Nuevo Laredo due to security conditions,” a department statement said.
OBSERVATION - Cartels are taking control of the border and this will spread deeper into the US unless stopped by the adminstration - an action highly unlikely.

______________________________

Biden watch - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Mental facilities continue to degrade. Harris’ mental capabilities are also questionable.

___________________________

CW2/Domestic violence - YELLOW trending neutral to down *updated 01/21/22*
DISCUSSION - Generally quiet activity on the BLM/Antifa front. Rampant crime continues

BLM / Antifa elements in Seattle and Portland are training participants in strategy for protesting and guided discussion on navigating on the ground safety, basic first aid, and gunshot wounds and trauma.

_________________________________

China - ORANGE trending neutral to upward

RUMINT - A whistleblower from Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) reported that Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping had considered launching an invasion of Taiwan in the fall of this year before the “window of opportunity” closed with the disastrous Russian invasion of Ukraine. According to the March 4 report, Xi had been “considering taking over Taiwan in the fall.” Part of the rationale given for that timing was that Xi “needs his own little victory to get re-elected for a third term,” a reference to the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, amid what the analyst described as a “colossal” power struggle among China’s elite.

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North Korea - YELLOW tending upward (UPDATED 03-18-22)

Increased ballistic missile and potential nuclear testing resumption are trending the category upward. New conservation SK govt could be more confrontative towards the north as well.
___________________________________

Russia - RED * updated 02=18-22*
DISCUSSION - INCREASED WARNING ONGOING -

WAR WATCH - This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Continued full scale operations so topple the government in Kyiv and control the entire country.

*********

Russia warned the United States on Thursday that Moscow had the might to put the world’s pre-eminent superpower in its place and accused the West of stoking a wild Russophobic plot to tear Russia apart.
Dmitry Medvedev, who served as president from 2008 to 2012 and is now deputy secretary of Russia’s Security Council, said the United States had stoked “disgusting” Russophobia in an attempt to force Russia to its knees.

It is becoming apparent that Putin is in the progress of instituting a purge in Moscow of those he believers are not supportive of his war against Ukraine. This purge was implied in his recent public statement . Rumors of 1000 arrested/removed from govt. Putin humiliated the director of the SVR, placed two FSB generals under house arrest and had Zolotov, the National Guard, to fire his deputy — in the three weeks of the war. Reports that he has fired 8 generals. Three independent sources report that the deputy chief of Russia’s Rosgvardia (a unit of RU’s interior army which has had tremendous losses in Ukraine), Gen. Roman Gavrilov has been detained by FSB. Gavrilov had also previously worked in FSO, Putin’s security service.

A further indicator of trouble, FM Lavrov was halfway to Beijing when his plane turned around abruptly and returned to Moscow⁦⁩. Unclear if Putin called him back or Chinese side got cold feet. More raised eyebrows over the mass air flights yesterday. Some think There’s a power struggle suddenly unfolding in the capital and Lavrov’s presence was urgently needed.
AGAIN, news has been tightly censored coming out or Moscow, so speculation is rampant.

Reinforcements - Russian military units of the stationed in South Ossetia were reported in convoy to Donbass region.
Japanese defense forces say they spotted four large Russian amphibious warfare ships traveling west & are not ruling out that they are heading to Europe. They are reportedly loaded with equipment too.
OBSERVATION - a VERY long voyage that will likely fail unless Russia is looking to force Turkey’s blockade of military ships at the Bosphorus Straits.

Economic Hits -
Russia prevented its first default on foreign debt since the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution by making a $117 million payment on interest due on two U.S. dollar-denominated bonds, its finance ministry said Thursday.

____________________________________

Ukraine - RED *updated 02-18-22* - The battle for Kyiv and Ukraine has entered its fourth week.

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 22th show a warming trend into the 50’s . Conditions maintain for muddy off road conditions, but no forecast for any rain which would basically put a nail into any maneuvering off road.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Total refugee count has exceeded 3 million.

Rough baseline estimate of losses -
Russia has lost 1502 vehicles, including 240 tanks and 449 A/IFVs.
Ukraine has lost 373 vehicles, including 66 tanks and 113 A/IFVs
NOTE - Ukraine has captured a lot of the Russian equipment that has been abandoned, restoring a lot of their losses.

The commander of the VDV’s 331st Airborne Regiment, Colonel Sergei Sukharev, was reportedly killed in Ukraine along with four other members of the regiment.

Biggest reported cruse missile strikes hit the airport at Lviv, targeting an aircraft repair facility. with at least four Artillery/bombing of civilian areas elsewhere continues with little pause. One hundred and thirty people have been rescued so far from the rubble of a theatre hit by an airstrike in Mariupol, Ukraine’s human rights commissioner says. Hundreds of people were sheltering underground when the theatre was bombed by Russia, ripping the building apart, according to the Ukrainian authorities.

Russian naval activity -
In various days of this week some ships in Sevastopol had their pennant numbers removed as to prevent possible tracking of whose who at sea.
Cruse missiles that hit Lviv overnight reportedly were launched from a Russian sub in the Black Sea.

Russian ground forces remain essentially stalled and combat ineffective on all fronts. Compilation of recent actions by both Russia and Ukraine show both attempting to go on the offensive in a limited manner.

Kyiv front -
Compilation of reports over the past several days indicates that the Ukraine is pressing a counter-attack on the western side of the Russian salient. The result has been forcing Russia to pull back from the Kyiv area to address this flank attack. The attack has also endangered Russian forces as there is no way to escape to the east - that is the lowlands adjacent to the Dniper River, so the only escape route is northward. Russian pressure on Kyiv on this front is falling apart.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Ukraine attacks have forced Russian forces away from Kyiv and back toward Chernihv. Russian forces appear to be mustering for a counter attack and reportedly have massed a lot of artillery to support the attack as well as continue to pound Chernihv.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Two extremely extended Russian attack axes from Konotop and Sumy depicted on the map link below have been essentially eliminated and remaining Russia forces pushed back to the east..

The most aggressive contacts between Russian and Ukrainian forces have taken place in the vicinity of the town of Izyum (Izium). Both sides claim control of the town. What is probably happening is that the town has a river through the middle of it with a key bridge, Russians probably control the north side, Ukraine the south (denying the bridge crossing) Russian forces appear to be attempting to move southward to join separatist forces, cutting off Ukraine forces on the eastern Dombass front. Ukraine claims Russian units lost 30 percent of personnel and equipment. Ukrainian forces claim they killed the commander of the 3rd infantry division colonel Igor Nikolaev (likely a high degree of propaganda - but Russians have been losing a lot of senior leaders at a high rate)

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Russian/separatist forces continue their hold surrounding Mariupol. Conditions in Mariupol continue to be desperate with bombing killing hundreds of civilians. Ukraine forces continue to push to break siege.

Crimea Front -
Russian forces have been dealt setbacks in the face of Ukrainian counterattacks. Following the decimation of Russian forces at Voznesensk. (March 2-3) Ukranian forces have pushed southward out of Mykolaiv and captured Posad-Pokrovs’ke. This denies Russia access to Odessa on the ground and could potentially relieve Kherson. This could also cut off resupply to the Russian push towards Kryvyi Rih.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -

According to a recent Pentagon assessment by the DIA, Russia is expected to brandish threats to use nuclear weapons against the West if stiff Ukrainian resistance continues. Continued concerns that Russia may utilize a false flag event to justify a chemical attack.

Belarus - RED *updated 01-02-28*
DISCUSSION - Managing to keep its forces in country and not commit to ground combat in Ukraine.
________________________________________

Poland - ORANGE trending upward *updated 3-18-22*
DISCUSSION - Poland could well be withinin Russian crosshairs for its operation in resupplying Ukrainian forces.

Poland will formally submit a proposal for a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine at the next NATO summit, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Friday.

The UK will deploy a Sky Sabre Air Defence System to Poland and 100 personnel to operate it.
This comes at the Polish Government’s request. Two US Patriot batteries are protecting the Polish airfield being used to move material into Ukraine.
________________________________________

Europe / NATO General - ORANGE *updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - Increasing potential that NATO will become involved in an Ukraine invasion as Poland, Romania and the Baltic Nations respond.

Arms, munitions and other supplies continue to be contributed to Ukraine via Poland. US offer of ADA systems compatible with those Ukraine has is hitting bumps due to lack of prior coordination by biden to “contributing” nations.
____________________________________

Israel - ORANGE trending neutral to upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Ongoing threat from Hezbollah and Iran continues.

____________________________________

________________________________

Globalism / Great Reset -

The International Energy Agency said Friday that a shortage of oil supply worldwide tied to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine can be countered with specific actions to reduce consumption that governments and citizens can take immediately.
A report issued by the IEA on Friday includes a 10-point plan that it says “could lower oil demand by 2.7 million barrels a day within four months — equivalent to the oil demand for all the cars in China.”
OBSERVATION - These ‘recommendations’ are in line to progressively push the country towards the GGR’s green policies.
There is also rumblings out the that biden et al could use this to declare a ‘crisis’ and force more draconian measures via EO.

_____________________________

Wuhan virus -

Dr. Ashish Jha, a rabid supporter of COVID vaccine passports and vaccine mandates for air travel, has been named as the new White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator.
Jha described as “nonsense” the argument that vaccine passports infringe upon “personal freedom,” reported the National Pulse.
“Vaccine certificates are needed so everyone’s full participation in society can be restored,” he wrote last year in the Economist.
Then he called for mandatory vaccines on airlines, arguing that mask mandates alone could not keep passengers safe.

OBSERVATION - If biden reinstitute wuhan measures, this guy will likely push for even more tyrannical actions.

After a surge in COVID cases caused by the BA.2 Omicron sub-variant, Austria is set to re-impose mask mandates that were dropped just two weeks ago.
Some are viewing this variant, combined with the refugee crisis caused by the Ukraine war, as a mega super spreader event. However, BA.2 variant proving even less dangerous than the original Omicron variant in terms of hospitalisations and deaths,
_____________________________

Economy -

St. Louis Federal Reserve president James Bullard on Friday called for a dramatic increase in the Fed’s overnight lending rate to more than 3% this year, a step he feels is needed to catch up with inflation posing a “particularly heavy” burden on families.
In a released statement explaining his dissent against the Fed’s approval of a quarter point increase this week, Bullard said the Fed “will have to move quickly to address this situation or risk losing credibility on its inflation target.”
OBSERVATION - This is twice what the fed as a whole is planning. It will be interesting to see if his views gain traction with the Fed board. Jumping rates too quickly/high could backfire and drop the country into a depression.
______________________________

Invasion of Illegals -

Estimates of 170,000 or more could suddenly flood the border is Title 42 restrictions are lifted.
______________________________

Biden / Harris watch -

biden held a 2 hr call with China’s Xi.
___________________________

China -

Xi tells Biden war in Ukraine in no-one’s interest.
Reuters cites Chinese state-owned media outlets saying that Xi Jinping supported peace in Ukraine.
According to the report, Xi told his U.S. counterpart Joe Biden that the two countries must make an effort for world peace.
____________________________________

Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands now entering the 4th week of war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Russian assaults across the board have all stalled out.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 100% of the combat force Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, It is becoming more and more apparent Russia has been scrambling to get more combat forces into theater and support those already committed.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********

At least 81,000 people attend a pro-war rally in Moscow’s Luzhniki stadium. Russian authorities claim over 200,000 people attend the event celebrating Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014. Putin gave a speech from a stage at the venue - after discussing Moscow’s military operation in Ukraine with his security council on Friday, RIA news agency cited the Kremlin as saying. He told the cheering thousands “we will implement all our plans”, insisting that the “main purpose” of the invasion of Ukraine is to “save people from suffering and genocide”.
OBSERVATIONS - Reports that many of the attendees were ‘forced’ to attend.

Russia on Friday warned countries arming Ukraine that they will be considered “legitimate targets” for retaliation.
“We clearly said that any cargo moving into the Ukrainian territory which we would believe is carrying weapons would be fair game,” Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told RT television, a state-controlled network, ABC News reported.
“This is clear because we are implementing the operation the goal of which is to remove any threat to the Russian Federation coming from the Ukrainian soil.”
Perhaps as a warning, Russia announced it used its hypersonic missile to destroy a non-specific underground ammunition storage facility. Some are viewing this as a threat towards Poland and other NATO nations supporting Ukraine.

Russia still pulling in reinforcements. The latest are reports that Russia will deploy troops from the 102nd Russian military base in Armenia to support its offensive against Ukraine. That base at full capacity is only 3,000 troops.

Economic Impacts -
- Moscow Stock Exchange will reportedly resume trading on Monday after 3 weeks of closure. However, there are reports that neither the stock nor the corporate bond market will open on Monday, only the market for government bonds will open. Russian central bank will likely scoop up any bonds on offer, i.e. monetarize state debt & accept inflation.
- Australia said on March 18 it expanded sanctions against Russia to include 11 more Russian banks and government entities, as well as oligarchs Oleg Deripaska and Viktor Vekselberg.
- Haliburton is suspending any support to Russian oil operatons/companies.

____________________________________

Ukraine -

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Total refugee count has exceeded 3 million.

Over 1000 missiles (cruse and ballistic ) have been fired at Ukraine by Russia since the start of the conflict.

There is a lot of ‘hype’ about the reported Russian use of a hypersonic missile.

Russian naval activity - nothing significant

Kyiv front -
Russian forces completely stalled and facing counter attacks by Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian forces claim that they have constructed two defensive rings around Kyiv and are preparing to build a third.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Russian forces are redirecting their efforts to encircle Chernihiv and are hammering the city with a lot of artillery and bombs. However, Russian forces continue to take heavy casualties. Ukrainian forces continue to hold Russian forces away from advancing towards Kyiv.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Continued Russian efforts to isolate Sumy and Khariv, but sustaining heavy casualties in doing so. The westward attempts to join forces up to siege Kyiv have failed and likely been forced back (though not necessarily depicted on maps). An offensive pushing south appears to have been stopped at Izium. The apparent goal of this move was to try to cut off Ukraine forces fighting against the separatists in the Dombass region.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Russian/Chechen forces have pushed into the central part of Mariupol as intense fighting has broken out overnight. Russian forces have apparently stopped an Ukraine assault to relieve the city.
The bomb shelter in Mariupol Drama Theatre has survived the brutal Russian missile. At least, majority stayed alive after bombing. People are getting out from the rubble. However, fighting has stopped rescue efforts.

Crimea Front -
One of the more active sectors continues to see Ukrainian gains. Per Ukrainian officials, due to the ongoing Ukrainian counter-offensive, the cities of Luch, Shevchenkove and Mykolaiv are back under Ukrainian control. They have further pushed to at least as far as Posad-Pokrovs’ke - about half way between Mykolaiv and Kherson. Ukrainian counterattacks appear to be coming from 2 directions push towards Kherson, One from Mykolaiv and the second from Snihurivka. There are reports of heavy fighting in and around Komyshany, west of Kherson overnight.

At the same time, it appears that Russian forces are trying to attack to the northeast between these two Ukrainian attacks. However as the Ukraine attack presses in on Kherson, the Russian effort faces being cut off from its logistical base.
Kherson was a key objective of Russian forces. Control over Kherson allows Russia to restore fresh water supplies to Crimea; Ukraine cut off the water after Russia annexed the peninsula in 2014. Also a key piece of terrain to support any operation to encircle Odessa.

The Ukraine offensive towards Kherson has had signifiant impacts on the Russian army. Yesterday, sources in Ukraine say Russian Lieutenant General Andrey Mordvichev, Commander of the 8th Combined Arms Army has been killed. Advisor to President Zelensky says “preliminary data” following a strike on a Russian command post in Kherson suggests Mordvichev was killed. This attack on the airport appears to be the same one on Tuesday that took out nearly two dozen Russian helicopters.
This would be the 5th general taken out during this war. The attack also has forced Russian to start evacuating equipment from the airfield. Videos show damaged (but presumably repairable) helicopters being towed out the the airfield.
OBSERVATION - The strike on a command post likely killed other senior officers in addition to a general. This decapation in the face of a determined Ukrainian counter offensive will definitely throw the Russian forces into greater confusion. The Russian forces in the Crimea sector have been the most successful because IMHO they were the best trained. Attrition and failed gambles have taken their toll and the loss of senior leadership will not help.
The crumpling of this portion of Russian’s front will almost doom any amphibious assault to capture Odessa.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg
Other clarifying maps here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOKjq9JX0AEu5JL?format=jpg&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOKhyP-XEA4A448?format=jpg&name=large

OUTLOOK -

Ukrainian counter offensives gaining success on the Crimea front - essentially shutting down a ground encirclement of Odessa and thwarting an amphibious operation. Russian forces will attempt to seal off key Russian cities and then rubble them.

IMHO the introduction to hypersonic missiles will have little impact on the tactical situation. It appears to be more posturing by Russia to intimidate NATO resupply efforts. These are expensive munitions and wont be tossed around indiscriminately as they do dummy bombs. Plus how many they have in their inventory is likely to be limited.

Barring a significant event to free up Russian ground forces to maneuver against Ukraine defenders, I see Russian forces being forced into a more defensive posture , making them vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks.

The most serious concern is if Russia decides to directly attack western supply operations. Rhetoric from Moscow increasingly suggests that Russia may attack NATO countries supplying arms and munitions.

___________________________________

Belarus -

Unconfirmed - There are so many dead & wounded Russian soldiers in Homel region, Belarus, that they’ve started loading corpses on trains at night “so as not to attract attention.” 2,500 KIA sent back to Russia, hospital staff say. That’s 5x the official number
______________________________________

Europe / NATO General -

7 NATO countries have stated that they would support a NATO Peacekeeping mission into Ukraine: Slovenia, Czechia, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and now Denmark, there are rumors that France and Slovakia would also Vote Yes.

Slovakia has offered its S300 systems and are ready to transfer to Ukraine but under Russia threat of attack. In response the Netherlands Ministry of Defense has announced that they will deploy Patriot SAM system in Slovakia . Germany expected to send a second system.

Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania have expelled a total of ten Russian diplomats, the foreign ministries of the three Baltic countries said on Friday.

Biden will attend the NATO summit on Ukraine in Brussels next Thursday, go to the European Council meeting afterward and then attend a G7 meeting called by Germany.

EU leaders are in possession of “very reliable evidence” that China is considering military assistance to Russia . The EU will “impose trade barriers against China” should Beijing proceed with Russia’s request. EU-China summit is scheduled for April 1

____________________________________

Black Swans -

Highly pathogenic and lethal avian influenza virus is now spreading across the U.S. and has now been discovered in both commercial poultry flocks and backyard flocks in 12 states in the U.S. including Kansas, Illinois, Iowa, and Wisconsin.
Millions of chickens infected with the deadly and contagious avian flu in Iowa and Wisconsin have been killed to contain the disease.

A worsening drought in the southern U.S. Plains is threatening the region’s winter wheat crop. As of March 6, just 24% of Kansas’ wheat crop was in good condition or better, while 39% was rated poor to very poor, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

NOTE - this will increase prices in the US eventually.

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