Replies

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Wuhan virus -

The Senate passed a measure that would force the repeal of the federal face mask mandate for public transit passed by a 57-40 margin. biden has vowed to veto it.
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Economy -

Oil, which recently hit record highs, took a steep dip and saw some heavy losses on Tuesday, following on the heels of a Monday dip.
Among the factors contributing to the swoon: talks between Russia and Ukraine, a potential slowdown in Chinese demand for oil, and trade activity preceding a widely anticipated rate hike by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.
NOTE - Doubt we’ll see equivalent lowering of prices as the pump any time soon though.

Bankrate’s 30-year mortgage rate rose to 4.43%, up 55% under Biden.
OBSERVATION - This could signal the puncture of the housing bubble.

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Biden / Harris watch -

Biden will travel to Brussels later this month for the NATO summit

Zelensky essentially told the world that biden is not acting as the leader of the world and went over his head to appeal to the US people.
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North Korea -

NK attempted to launch an ICBM in a test last night. The missile exploded at an altitude of less than 20 km (12 miles) and debris fell in the Pyongyang area; no word on damage or injuries. Reports of a reddish brown plume from the missile indicate it was a liquid fuel rocket.

US, South Korea could resume military exercises involving long-range US bombers such as the B-52H or B-1B in the event North Korea following this ICBM test. US hasn’t deployed a long-range bomber to the Korean Peninsula since 2017.
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Japan -

Fumio Kishida, Japan’s prime minister, said that southern Kuril Islands are a sovereign part of his country, and not part of Russia, which has controlled the group of islands since 1945. Speaking in the Diet earlier this week, Kishida told lawmakers the Kuril Islands are “original territories of Japan”.
The islands have been a point of controversy between Japan and the Russia for decades. Moscow took control of the islands after World War II in 1945. In recent years, the Japanese government had refrained from referring to the islands as its “original territories” in order to avoid upsetting the Russian government.
However, following the global anti-Moscow sentiment since the invasion of Ukraine, the Japanese government has reinstated its historic claim on the silands.
“The Northern Territories belong to Japan. They are the territory on which Japan has sovereignty,” Kishida said.
In fact, on 29 February, on the second day of the Russian invasion, Japan’s foreign minister, Hideki Uyama, even went so far to say that Russia had “occupied” the southern part of the Kuril Islands, thereby violating international law.

OBSERVATION - Japan sees Russia as wounded and vulnerable on this issue, looking to exploit the current situation to reinforce its claims.

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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands after over three weeks of fighting

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Russian assaults across the board have all stalled out.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 100% of the combat force Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, It is becoming more and more apparent Russia has been scrambling to get more combat forces into theater and support those already committed.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Russia is suffering serious losses that can no longer be poo-poo’d as propaganda -
- Confirmed - Russian Army Major General Oleg Mityaev was killed in fighting yesterday. He’s a commander of the 150th motorized rifle division.
OBSERVATION - This is the 4th general killed in this conflict in a space of 20 days. - It is estimated that there were 20 generals in the forces at the start of conflict, so to lose 20% of your senior officers is unreal.
- Not independently verified but compelling based on ground conditions. Russia has lost up to 40 per cent of the units (not mission capable status - not totally destroyed) it sent into Ukraine when Moscow invaded its neighbor in February, the Ukrainian military’s general staff said on Wednesday. The troops were either completely destroyed or have lost their combat capabilities, according to the daily bulletin, which did not give concrete numbers. The information could not be verified independently.
- UK military intelligence says so many Russian troops are dying by the Ukrainian resistance that it’s likely struggling to conduct offensive operations and is seeking replacements. Russia is bringing troops from Eastern Mil District, Pacific Fleet, Syria, Armenia, and private contractors to hold ground.
- Russian units from the 4th Guards occupation base in Tskhinvali are leaving the region through the Roki tunnel and heading to fight in Ukraine. In addition to Russia’s 58th Army units, volunteers from the so-called South Ossetia are reportedly also leaving for Ukraine.

SUMMARY - People will quibble over final numbers , however, the fact that Russia appears to be desperately seeking more troops and equipment to support the fight lends credibility to the loss claims.
Time is also running out for Russia. It will take time to get these units assembled and in place - the time frame depends upon just how much these forces need equipment on arrival or show up with their stuff. Both personnel and equipment are needed as armor and other losses have been intense. This is a component of Russia’s failed logistics support - they can’t keep the current forces supplied, it is questionable how successfully they can prepare these other forces to enter battle as well.

Economic Impacts -
- Russian stock market continues to be closed.

Russia announces leaving the Council of Europe, hours before its expected expulsion. It means that Russian citizens will not be able to bring cases to the European Court of Human Rights, and the Russian government can re-introduce the death penalty.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 20th show a warming trend into the 50’s . Conditions maintain for muddy off road conditions, but no forecast for any rain which would basically put a nail into any maneuvering off road.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Over 1000 misslies (cruse and ballistic ) have been fired at Ukraine by Russia since the start of the conflict. They are being used primarily to target residents and civilian areas of cities.

Russian naval activity - See Crimea front discussion

Russian ground forces remain essentially stalled and combat ineffective with the only exception being the Crimea front with some movement on the Dombass region. Ukrainian counter attacks have been largely successful inflicting more Russian personnel and equipment losses and forcing /Russians to pull back in many sectors.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke to Congress this morning requesting further aid and support for the Ukrainian war efforts. He reiterated the request for a no fly zone over Ukraine.

Almost all of Russia’s assaults on Ukrainian cities remain stalled. Use of cruse and ballistic missiles has increased, targeting residential and some industrial areas.

Kyiv front -
Intense fighting in surrounding suburbs of Kyiv’s northwest as Russian elements have attempted to resume some degree of offensive operations. There are unconfirmed reports that Ukraine has out maneuvered some of those units and pressed them into kill zones.

The US embassy in Kyiv says Russian forces have shot and killed 10 people standing in line for bread in the Ukrainian city of Chernihiv, following the emergence of graphic footage of the aftermath earlier today.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Two extremely extended Russian attack axes from Konotop and Sumy still in play but are stalled. Ukraine success in reducing the pressure from the Northern /Front (above) has freed forces to start more intensive operations against the stalled, road bound forces from the east. More Ukraine counter attacks around Sumy and Khariv have forced Russian forces back.
Russian bombing wrath retuned to Kharkiv last night, with intensive bombing in its residential neighborhoods.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Russian/separatist forces managed to push southwestward from the vicinity of Donetsk in what appears to be an effort to cut off Ukraine forces fighting to relieve the defenders of Mariupol. Conditions in Mariupol continue to be desperate with bombing killing hundreds of civilians. In another gross violation of the rules of war - war crime acts, Russian troops seized a hospital in Mariupol and took about 500 people hostage during another assault on the southern port city late Tuesday, regional leader Pavlo Kyrylenko said.
Russians troops drove 400 people from neighboring houses into Regional Intensive Care Hospital, Kyrylenko said on the messaging app Telegram. About 100 doctors and patients also are believed to be inside, he said.
OBSERVATION - Chechen forces have been operating in the Separatist Donbass region. This kind of operation is their MO to create terror and why Russia had placed them there. These are special kinds of thugs who would make the world a better place if they were dead.

Crimea Front -
Three major (predominately road bound) pushes being 1) North - northwest along a Mykolaiv to Voznesensk axis. 2) Northward towards Zaporizhzhia and 3) eastward towards Mariupol. Only movement has been Russian advances on the northern side of the Dnieper River from the Kherson region northwest towards Kryvyi Rih.

Russian troops deployed tear gas and opened fire at protesters in Skadovs’k.

Watch continues on the amphibious force still holding off the west coast of Crimea. Yesterday, satellite images showed 14 ships of the Russian fleet sailing towards the city of Odesa, among them a 120-meter landing ship Pyotr Morgunov. Results were the Russian warships shelled the sea coast in the area of Lebedevka, Sanzheyka, Zatoka and Belenky. - southwest of Odessa These were long distance shots, probably trying to stay out of range of Ukraine anti ship missiles effective range while probing the coastal defenses.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -

Barring a significant event to free up Russian ground forces to maneuver against Ukraine defenders, I see very little changes on the ground, with continued high Russian casualty and equipment loss rates.

Air attacks will continue with likely greater intensity, relying on cruse missiles to target residential areas of major cities like Kyiv, Mariupol, Khariv, etc. /Russian close air support will continue to suffer at the hands of the abundant, shoulder fired SAMs that take several jets out every day as well as numerous helicopters.

The biggest potential operation on the radar is an amphibious operation to the southwest of Odessa. Last night’s shelling/rocket attack from the naval fleet was likely a probing effort. However, this would be a strongly opposed operation that not only will cost a lot of men, but endanger surface ships as well. The area is well fortified and if Russia were to succeed, will need coordinated air support (lacking from Russia so far) as well as pressure on ground by forces coming either out of Crimea ore even the Transdniestria region of Moldova. With out those efforts to dilute coastal defenses, such an amphibious operation is perilous.

Impacts from Zelensky’s address to congress and the American people will take a couple days to be fully revealed. It definitely put pressure on biden to fish or cut bait.

It is becoming a race - can Russia muster enough reinforcements to swing the war without having to resort to even more devastating tactics (NBC) OR can Ukraine receive enough weapons and material to not only continue its defense but inflict even more devastating losses in personnel and equipment on Russian forces.

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Europe / NATO General -

The prime ministers of Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovenia have returned safely back to Poland on Wednesday after a visit to Kyiv meant to show support for Ukraine as it faces heavy bombardment.

A NATO Summit is scheduled for 24 March at NATO HQ. It is scheduled to address the Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, our strong support for Ukraine, and further strengthening NATO’s deterrence & defense.

NATO is set to tell its military commanders on Wednesday to draw up plans for new ways to deter Russia following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, including more troops and missile defenses in eastern Europe, officials and diplomats said.

An international peacekeeping mission should be sent to operate in Ukraine, the leader of Poland’s ruling party said on Tuesday during a press conference in Kyiv alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. “I think that it is necessary to have a peace mission - NATO, possibly some wider international structure - but a mission that will be able to defend itself, which will operate on Ukrainian territory,” Jaroslaw Kaczynski said during the conference, which was broadcast on Polish television.
OBSERVATION - A peace keeping force may likely be part of the March 24th NATO meeting.

US & NATO allies are sending several surface-to-air missiles systems to Ukraine. A senior US official tells me these systems include Soviet-era SA-8, SA-10, SA-12 and SA-14 mobile air defense systems, w/range higher than Stingers, giving capability to hit cruise missiles.
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Iran -

IRGC unveiled a underwater-drone-torpedo.

In a sign that getting the P5+1 nuclear deal with Iran through Congress might be difficult, if not impossible, 49 out of 50 Republican Senators have announced they will not back any deal that doesn’t limit Iran’s missile program and “confront Iran’s support for terrorism.”
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Wuhan virus -

The Government of New South Wales, Australia had been producing a weekly Covid-19 Statistical Report, but they have failed to update the figures for over a month now with the available data showing the number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths by vaccination status up to 5th Feb 22. Data indicates fully vaccinated population accounted for 4 in every 5 Covid-19 cases, 9 in every 10 hospitalizations, 9 in every 10 ICU admissions, and 4 in every 5 Covid-19 deaths.
OBSERVATION - Interpretation of this data will be subject to a lot of scrutiny but if it holds up is incredibly damning.

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Economy -

Oil prices climbed on Thursday after the International Energy Agency (IEA) said markets could lose three million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude and refined products from April. The supply loss would be far greater than an expected one million bpd per day drop in demand triggered by higher fuel prices, the IEA said in a report on Wednesday.
Benchmark Brent crude futures gained $1.8, or 1.9%, to $99.86 a barrel by 0408 GMT, after falling for three consecutive trading sessions.
OBSERVATION - Oil prices will continue to be volatile due to uncertainingy of the Ukraine war and economic shudders from sanctions spreading across a weak post-wuhan recovery.

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Invasion of Illegals -

Illegal migrant apprehensions in February were up over 60% over what they were last February. U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reports the February 2022 number of migrant apprehensions is 164,973. During the same month in 2021, the number reported was 101,099 encounters at the border.
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Biden / Harris watch -

biden called Putin a “war criminal”. Putin was not amused.

biden’s response to Zelenski’s appeal was anemic at best.

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CW2/Domestic violence -

Woke Yale Law students were filmed threatening two guest speakers and staff at a free speech event where a conservative guest successfully defended a Supreme Court decision of a Colorado baker who refused to make a cake for a gay wedding ceremony.
Police were forced to escort the guest speakers from Yale Law School’s free speech debate after more than 100 students intimidated the conservative panelist by yelling they would ‘literally fight you, b***h’ and caused a riot in the auditorium by blocking the hall’s exits.
The chaos broke out last week at the start of a panel featuring progressive Monica Miller from the American Humanist Association and Kristen Waggoner, a conservative Christian of the Alliance Defending Freedom (ADF) nonprofit.

OBSERVATION - This kind of campus ‘cancelling’ has dramatically increased over the past few months. This seems to be mirroring the actions on liberal campuses in 2016 which later expanded to the riots of 2019.

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China -

Five people were charged with stalking, harassing and spying on US residents on behalf of China’s secret police, the US Attorney’s office for the Eastern District of New York announced on Wednesday

China continues to walk the fine line between supporting Russia and facing associated global sanctions reaching back to China from Russian sanctions.

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North Korea -

No comments from NK on the failed rocket test.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands now entering the 4th week of war.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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There has been a silence out of Russia from voices other than the official Russian mouthpieces for Putin. Russia has shut down many social media outlets because of all the information on the Ukraine war and civilian response of protests. Hammer has come down on any dissent.

Vladimir Putin sent a chilling warning to the West and oligarchs telling ‘scum’ traitors that Russians will ‘spit them out like a midge that flew into their mouths’ - as he claimed Western ‘attempts to have global dominance’ is coming to an end.
The Russian President, speaking in a bombastic televised address from the Kremlin , warned the West would use ‘those who earn their money here, but live over there’ as a ‘fifth column’ to ‘divide our society’. It is the latest in the propaganda pushed by Moscow in a bid to justify their invasion of Ukraine to Russian citizens - including claims the war is about ‘de-nazifying’ the country and preventing a genocide of minorities waged by Kyiv. Putin called for a “self-purification” to rid his country of anyone who questions his invasion.
OBSERVATION - Shocking address giving many fuel to question Putin’s state of mind.

Biden’s reference to Russian leader Vladimir Putin as a “war criminal” over his military operation in Ukraine is “unacceptable and unforgivable,” the Kremlin says.

International Court of Justice in The Hague orders Russia to suspend invasion of Ukraine

More than 7,000 Russian troops have been killed in less than three weeks of fighting, according to conservative US estimates. Using a factor of 4 for wounded - 28,000, total is around 35,000 - devastating losses by any measure. Verified Russian equipment losses seem to support these casualty figure.

Uzbekistan, a Central Asian republic with close ties to Russia, called on Thursday for a diplomatic resolution of the conflict in Ukraine and said it would not recognize Moscow-backed separatist statelets there. Uzbekistan isn’t a member of CSTO.

Observers have noted unusual passenger / cargo aircraft deployments from Moscow to various points east, many going to Novosibirsk (HQ 41st CAA). 8 planes took off within a very short window. Included in the flights are key national level C3 aircraft. Much speculation on if this represents distribution of national leadership in anticipation of a potential nuclear scenario. Key aircraft -
- RuAF Tupolev Tu-214SR RSD79 relay is orbiting to provide secure communications.
- Russian Air Force Tupolev Tu-214PU RSD78 airborne command post
There was an exodus of 4 private jets out of Moscow towards Dubai this same time frame too.
OBSERVATIONS - Some observers see this as very close to a normal action seen on a nearly daily basis. Perhaps the thing that grabbed interest was the eastward deployments - likely due to air space restrictions. This may be a big nothing burger but good to keep eyes on this active and document it - variations could be an indicator of something more serious.

Economic Impacts -
- Closure of alternative news sources is hiding the impacts of global sanctions on the Russian population.
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Ukraine -

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Total refugee count has exceeded 3 million.

Over 1000 missiles (cruse and ballistic ) have been fired at Ukraine by Russia since the start of the conflict. Some analysts believe that the missile consumption rate is far beyond what Russia had planned on and has essentially depleted its newer munitions. They believe Russia is relying more on older, less accurate models which are adequate for striking large targets like residential apartments.

Russian naval activity - See Crimea front discussion

Russian ground forces remain essentially stalled and combat ineffective on all fronts. The Crimea front has suffered some severe set backs, see below. Ukrainian counter attacks have been largely successful inflicting more Russian personnel and equipment losses and forcing Russians to pull back in many sectors. US and UK intelligence sources note that Ukrainian command and control is effectively coordinating combat operations across the country.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Ukrainan counter attacks have stopped the Russian push on Kyiv and forced them to withdraw back to the north and towards Chernihv. This places this axis of attack out of the Kyiv picture for now and incapable to join up with the force from the NE Front’s attempt on the northeast and eastern margin of Kyiv.
The US embassy in Kyiv says Russian forces have shot and killed 10 people standing in line for bread in the Ukrainian city of Chernihiv, following the emergence of graphic footage of the aftermath earlier today.
Heavy artillery and bombing of Chernihiv and surrounding towns by Russian forces. However, this is one region where Ukraine has had significant success counter attacking Russian forces.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Two extremely extended Russian attack axes from Konotop and Sumy still in play but are stalled. Ukraine success in reducing the pressure from the Northern /Front (above) has freed forces to start more intensive operations against the stalled, road bound forces from the east. More Ukraine counter attacks around Sumy and Khariv have forced Russian forces back. There has been little heard from the two attack axes and I suspect that they have met a similar fate as the assault on Voznesenk (see Crimea below).
Russian bombing wrath retuned to Kharkiv last night, with intensive bombing in its residential neighborhoods.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Russian/separatist push southwestward from the vicinity of Donetsk in what appears to be an effort to cut off Ukraine forces fighting to relieve the defenders of Mariupol has stalled. Conditions in Mariupol continue to be desperate with bombing killing hundreds of civilians. In another gross violation of the rules of war - war crime acts.

Russian troops bombed a theatre in the Ukrainian city of Mariupol where as many as 1,200 civilians including women, children and the elderly, were taking refuge. On parking / plaza areas adjacent to the building was written in large letters “Children” in hopes Russia would not bomb the building. Officials said the theater’s bomb shelter, where hundreds of civilians had been hiding when an airstrike hit, withstood the attack. Survivors are believed to be trapped underneath.

Ukrainian President Zelensky confirmed that mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, was freed from Russian captivity following the exchange of 9 Russian POWs

New evidence of a Ukraine artillery strike at the airport in Kherson, which Russian troops had seized early in the war, that they claimed destroyed 30 Russian helicopters has been verified by satellite imagery. That claim was met with initial skepticism due to lack of evidence. Satellite photos taken afterward by Planet Labs PBC show helicopters and vehicles on fire at the air base. At least 22 helicopters are shown to be destroyed and many on fire. Control over Kherson allows Russia to restore fresh water supplies to Crimea; Ukraine cut off the water after Russia annexed the peninsula in 2014.

Post conflict review of the battle at Voznesenk (axis #1 above) on March 2-3 has come out in the WSJ. I noted the action in posts -
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4026005/posts?page=158#158
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4026005/posts?page=164#164

In summary, Russian forces were looking to secure another river crossing to facilitate an encircling ground assault on Odessa following the failure to seize bridges at Mykolaiv. An air assault to try to quickly secure the Voznesenk bridge was to have a BTG join up with it. The air assault failed and by the time the BTG rolled into town, local national guard and civilian militias were ready and essentially took the BTG completely out of action, along with the airborne forces. The BTG was essentially destroyed and surviving Russians retreated at least 40 miles back towards Mykolaiv and haven’t pushed back to date. The WSJ article goes into the the massive clean- up of well over 500 (and counting) dead Russian bodies being bagged and put into a freezer for temporary storage. The destruction of this Russian probe along this axis isn’t well depicted on the wikipedia battle map except for the max push date.
Before you start - there may be a degree of Ukraine propaganda in the article, however, the simple fact that the attack was crushed and the associated details point to an example of how lighter Ukraine forces are tearing up Russian forces in other areas as well.

Watch continues on the amphibious force still holding off the west coast of Crimea. Failure to gain ground to encircle Odessa is likely to delay any amphibious operation, unless Russian believes those attacks have diverted enough assets away from shore defenses to risk a forced landing.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -

Air attacks will continue with likely greater intensity, relying on cruse missiles to target residential areas of major cities like Kyiv, Mariupol, Khariv, etc. Russian close air support will continue to suffer at the hands of the abundant, shoulder fired SAMs that take several jets out every day as well as numerous helicopters.

There continue to be rumors that the stalled Russian offensive is serving to get them ready for another push on Kyiv and other key cities. Those rumors have been floating for nearly three weeks now. The probable loss of 34,000 soldiers (dead and wounded) and corresponding amounts of armor and other equipment would suggest the need for a readjustment of Russian forces and critical reinforcement / resupply efforts. But it also involves withdrawing depleted forces from the ‘front’ lines under fire, assembling new units and receiving reinforcements - all actions under fire by Ukraine forces. So far the Russian forces show they are incapable of executing such a complex operation and committed forces essentially frozen in place.

At this stage Russia needs a hail Mary of some to break the
quagmire they have gotten themselves into. The hail mary options are not pleasant and may quickly drive NATO into the conflict.
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Belarus -

Massive explosions in a number of cities in Belarus. Residents of Baranavichy, Luninets, Stolin, Hantsavichy, Slutsk, Kletsk and other cities reported sounds similar to explosions. Most believe they were sonic booms from Russian aircraft. Other speculation was an artillery exercise. Most likely sonic booms ..

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Europe / NATO General -

Britain announces that a UN Security Council emergency meeting will be held on Russia’s war crimes in Ukraine.

Moldova called on Russia to withdraw from Transnistria. Moldovan President Maia Sandu called for the removal of munitions and “complete and unconditional withdrawal of Russian forces” from the unrecognized breakaway region during a UN General Assembly meeting on March 16.
OBSERVATION - Transnistria based Russian forces are potential reinforcements for an operation to seize Odessa, but their numbers are relatively small and they would face the same buzz saw other Russian forces have. Isolated, they would have a very limited capability to sustain an offensive into Ukraine.

biden promised a lot of Russian derived ADA systems - systems in eastern European NATO countries - Ukraine. However, it is apparent that biden’s people have done very little to coordinate the transfer of equipment to Ukraine prior to his ‘announcement’ yesterday.
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Iran -

The US is reportedly weighing a move to delist Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terror organization, as it moves closer to reviving the nuclear agreement with Tehran.
OBSERVATION - Iran playing the US like a fiddle, essentially getting everything they want. Removal of terrorist designation would give IRGC a lot of maneuver room to move internationally and coordinator with proxy forces.

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Black Swans -

South Africa facing a locust infestation of “biblical proportion” that is threatening a substantial acreage of crops. Just adds to the overall pressure on global food supplies this year