Replies

Wuhan virus -

The Government of New South Wales, Australia had been producing a weekly Covid-19 Statistical Report, but they have failed to update the figures for over a month now with the available data showing the number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths by vaccination status up to 5th Feb 22. Data indicates fully vaccinated population accounted for 4 in every 5 Covid-19 cases, 9 in every 10 hospitalizations, 9 in every 10 ICU admissions, and 4 in every 5 Covid-19 deaths.
OBSERVATION - Interpretation of this data will be subject to a lot of scrutiny but if it holds up is incredibly damning.

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Economy -

Oil prices climbed on Thursday after the International Energy Agency (IEA) said markets could lose three million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude and refined products from April. The supply loss would be far greater than an expected one million bpd per day drop in demand triggered by higher fuel prices, the IEA said in a report on Wednesday.
Benchmark Brent crude futures gained $1.8, or 1.9%, to $99.86 a barrel by 0408 GMT, after falling for three consecutive trading sessions.
OBSERVATION - Oil prices will continue to be volatile due to uncertainingy of the Ukraine war and economic shudders from sanctions spreading across a weak post-wuhan recovery.

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Invasion of Illegals -

Illegal migrant apprehensions in February were up over 60% over what they were last February. U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reports the February 2022 number of migrant apprehensions is 164,973. During the same month in 2021, the number reported was 101,099 encounters at the border.
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Biden / Harris watch -

biden called Putin a “war criminal”. Putin was not amused.

biden’s response to Zelenski’s appeal was anemic at best.

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CW2/Domestic violence -

Woke Yale Law students were filmed threatening two guest speakers and staff at a free speech event where a conservative guest successfully defended a Supreme Court decision of a Colorado baker who refused to make a cake for a gay wedding ceremony.
Police were forced to escort the guest speakers from Yale Law School’s free speech debate after more than 100 students intimidated the conservative panelist by yelling they would ‘literally fight you, b***h’ and caused a riot in the auditorium by blocking the hall’s exits.
The chaos broke out last week at the start of a panel featuring progressive Monica Miller from the American Humanist Association and Kristen Waggoner, a conservative Christian of the Alliance Defending Freedom (ADF) nonprofit.

OBSERVATION - This kind of campus ‘cancelling’ has dramatically increased over the past few months. This seems to be mirroring the actions on liberal campuses in 2016 which later expanded to the riots of 2019.

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China -

Five people were charged with stalking, harassing and spying on US residents on behalf of China’s secret police, the US Attorney’s office for the Eastern District of New York announced on Wednesday

China continues to walk the fine line between supporting Russia and facing associated global sanctions reaching back to China from Russian sanctions.

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North Korea -

No comments from NK on the failed rocket test.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands now entering the 4th week of war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Russian assaults across the board have all stalled out.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 100% of the combat force Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, It is becoming more and more apparent Russia has been scrambling to get more combat forces into theater and support those already committed.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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There has been a silence out of Russia from voices other than the official Russian mouthpieces for Putin. Russia has shut down many social media outlets because of all the information on the Ukraine war and civilian response of protests. Hammer has come down on any dissent.

Vladimir Putin sent a chilling warning to the West and oligarchs telling ‘scum’ traitors that Russians will ‘spit them out like a midge that flew into their mouths’ - as he claimed Western ‘attempts to have global dominance’ is coming to an end.
The Russian President, speaking in a bombastic televised address from the Kremlin , warned the West would use ‘those who earn their money here, but live over there’ as a ‘fifth column’ to ‘divide our society’. It is the latest in the propaganda pushed by Moscow in a bid to justify their invasion of Ukraine to Russian citizens - including claims the war is about ‘de-nazifying’ the country and preventing a genocide of minorities waged by Kyiv. Putin called for a “self-purification” to rid his country of anyone who questions his invasion.
OBSERVATION - Shocking address giving many fuel to question Putin’s state of mind.

Biden’s reference to Russian leader Vladimir Putin as a “war criminal” over his military operation in Ukraine is “unacceptable and unforgivable,” the Kremlin says.

International Court of Justice in The Hague orders Russia to suspend invasion of Ukraine

More than 7,000 Russian troops have been killed in less than three weeks of fighting, according to conservative US estimates. Using a factor of 4 for wounded - 28,000, total is around 35,000 - devastating losses by any measure. Verified Russian equipment losses seem to support these casualty figure.

Uzbekistan, a Central Asian republic with close ties to Russia, called on Thursday for a diplomatic resolution of the conflict in Ukraine and said it would not recognize Moscow-backed separatist statelets there. Uzbekistan isn’t a member of CSTO.

Observers have noted unusual passenger / cargo aircraft deployments from Moscow to various points east, many going to Novosibirsk (HQ 41st CAA). 8 planes took off within a very short window. Included in the flights are key national level C3 aircraft. Much speculation on if this represents distribution of national leadership in anticipation of a potential nuclear scenario. Key aircraft -
- RuAF Tupolev Tu-214SR RSD79 relay is orbiting to provide secure communications.
- Russian Air Force Tupolev Tu-214PU RSD78 airborne command post
There was an exodus of 4 private jets out of Moscow towards Dubai this same time frame too.
OBSERVATIONS - Some observers see this as very close to a normal action seen on a nearly daily basis. Perhaps the thing that grabbed interest was the eastward deployments - likely due to air space restrictions. This may be a big nothing burger but good to keep eyes on this active and document it - variations could be an indicator of something more serious.

Economic Impacts -
- Closure of alternative news sources is hiding the impacts of global sanctions on the Russian population.
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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 20th show a warming trend into the 50’s . Conditions maintain for muddy off road conditions, but no forecast for any rain which would basically put a nail into any maneuvering off road.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Total refugee count has exceeded 3 million.

Over 1000 missiles (cruse and ballistic ) have been fired at Ukraine by Russia since the start of the conflict. Some analysts believe that the missile consumption rate is far beyond what Russia had planned on and has essentially depleted its newer munitions. They believe Russia is relying more on older, less accurate models which are adequate for striking large targets like residential apartments.

Russian naval activity - See Crimea front discussion

Russian ground forces remain essentially stalled and combat ineffective on all fronts. The Crimea front has suffered some severe set backs, see below. Ukrainian counter attacks have been largely successful inflicting more Russian personnel and equipment losses and forcing Russians to pull back in many sectors. US and UK intelligence sources note that Ukrainian command and control is effectively coordinating combat operations across the country.

Kyiv front -
Intense fighting in surrounding suburbs of Kyiv’s northwest as Russian elements have attempted to resume some degree of offensive operations. There are unconfirmed reports that Ukraine has out maneuvered some of those units and pressed them into kill zones.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Ukrainan counter attacks have stopped the Russian push on Kyiv and forced them to withdraw back to the north and towards Chernihv. This places this axis of attack out of the Kyiv picture for now and incapable to join up with the force from the NE Front’s attempt on the northeast and eastern margin of Kyiv.
The US embassy in Kyiv says Russian forces have shot and killed 10 people standing in line for bread in the Ukrainian city of Chernihiv, following the emergence of graphic footage of the aftermath earlier today.
Heavy artillery and bombing of Chernihiv and surrounding towns by Russian forces. However, this is one region where Ukraine has had significant success counter attacking Russian forces.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Two extremely extended Russian attack axes from Konotop and Sumy still in play but are stalled. Ukraine success in reducing the pressure from the Northern /Front (above) has freed forces to start more intensive operations against the stalled, road bound forces from the east. More Ukraine counter attacks around Sumy and Khariv have forced Russian forces back. There has been little heard from the two attack axes and I suspect that they have met a similar fate as the assault on Voznesenk (see Crimea below).
Russian bombing wrath retuned to Kharkiv last night, with intensive bombing in its residential neighborhoods.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Russian/separatist push southwestward from the vicinity of Donetsk in what appears to be an effort to cut off Ukraine forces fighting to relieve the defenders of Mariupol has stalled. Conditions in Mariupol continue to be desperate with bombing killing hundreds of civilians. In another gross violation of the rules of war - war crime acts.

Russian troops bombed a theatre in the Ukrainian city of Mariupol where as many as 1,200 civilians including women, children and the elderly, were taking refuge. On parking / plaza areas adjacent to the building was written in large letters “Children” in hopes Russia would not bomb the building. Officials said the theater’s bomb shelter, where hundreds of civilians had been hiding when an airstrike hit, withstood the attack. Survivors are believed to be trapped underneath.

Ukrainian President Zelensky confirmed that mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, was freed from Russian captivity following the exchange of 9 Russian POWs

Crimea Front -
Three major (predominately road bound) pushes being 1) North - northwest along a Mykolaiv to Voznesensk axis. 2) Northward towards Zaporizhzhia and 3) eastward towards Mariupol. Only movement has been Russian advances on the northern side of the Dnieper River from the Kherson region northwest towards Kryvyi Rih.

New evidence of a Ukraine artillery strike at the airport in Kherson, which Russian troops had seized early in the war, that they claimed destroyed 30 Russian helicopters has been verified by satellite imagery. That claim was met with initial skepticism due to lack of evidence. Satellite photos taken afterward by Planet Labs PBC show helicopters and vehicles on fire at the air base. At least 22 helicopters are shown to be destroyed and many on fire. Control over Kherson allows Russia to restore fresh water supplies to Crimea; Ukraine cut off the water after Russia annexed the peninsula in 2014.

Post conflict review of the battle at Voznesenk (axis #1 above) on March 2-3 has come out in the WSJ. I noted the action in posts -
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4026005/posts?page=158#158
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4026005/posts?page=164#164

In summary, Russian forces were looking to secure another river crossing to facilitate an encircling ground assault on Odessa following the failure to seize bridges at Mykolaiv. An air assault to try to quickly secure the Voznesenk bridge was to have a BTG join up with it. The air assault failed and by the time the BTG rolled into town, local national guard and civilian militias were ready and essentially took the BTG completely out of action, along with the airborne forces. The BTG was essentially destroyed and surviving Russians retreated at least 40 miles back towards Mykolaiv and haven’t pushed back to date. The WSJ article goes into the the massive clean- up of well over 500 (and counting) dead Russian bodies being bagged and put into a freezer for temporary storage. The destruction of this Russian probe along this axis isn’t well depicted on the wikipedia battle map except for the max push date.
Before you start - there may be a degree of Ukraine propaganda in the article, however, the simple fact that the attack was crushed and the associated details point to an example of how lighter Ukraine forces are tearing up Russian forces in other areas as well.

Watch continues on the amphibious force still holding off the west coast of Crimea. Failure to gain ground to encircle Odessa is likely to delay any amphibious operation, unless Russian believes those attacks have diverted enough assets away from shore defenses to risk a forced landing.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -

Barring a significant event to free up Russian ground forces to maneuver against Ukraine defenders, I see very little changes on the ground, with continued high Russian casualty and equipment loss rates.

Air attacks will continue with likely greater intensity, relying on cruse missiles to target residential areas of major cities like Kyiv, Mariupol, Khariv, etc. Russian close air support will continue to suffer at the hands of the abundant, shoulder fired SAMs that take several jets out every day as well as numerous helicopters.

There continue to be rumors that the stalled Russian offensive is serving to get them ready for another push on Kyiv and other key cities. Those rumors have been floating for nearly three weeks now. The probable loss of 34,000 soldiers (dead and wounded) and corresponding amounts of armor and other equipment would suggest the need for a readjustment of Russian forces and critical reinforcement / resupply efforts. But it also involves withdrawing depleted forces from the ‘front’ lines under fire, assembling new units and receiving reinforcements - all actions under fire by Ukraine forces. So far the Russian forces show they are incapable of executing such a complex operation and committed forces essentially frozen in place.

At this stage Russia needs a hail Mary of some to break the
quagmire they have gotten themselves into. The hail mary options are not pleasant and may quickly drive NATO into the conflict.
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Belarus -

Massive explosions in a number of cities in Belarus. Residents of Baranavichy, Luninets, Stolin, Hantsavichy, Slutsk, Kletsk and other cities reported sounds similar to explosions. Most believe they were sonic booms from Russian aircraft. Other speculation was an artillery exercise. Most likely sonic booms ..

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Europe / NATO General -

Britain announces that a UN Security Council emergency meeting will be held on Russia’s war crimes in Ukraine.

Moldova called on Russia to withdraw from Transnistria. Moldovan President Maia Sandu called for the removal of munitions and “complete and unconditional withdrawal of Russian forces” from the unrecognized breakaway region during a UN General Assembly meeting on March 16.
OBSERVATION - Transnistria based Russian forces are potential reinforcements for an operation to seize Odessa, but their numbers are relatively small and they would face the same buzz saw other Russian forces have. Isolated, they would have a very limited capability to sustain an offensive into Ukraine.

biden promised a lot of Russian derived ADA systems - systems in eastern European NATO countries - Ukraine. However, it is apparent that biden’s people have done very little to coordinate the transfer of equipment to Ukraine prior to his ‘announcement’ yesterday.
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Iran -

The US is reportedly weighing a move to delist Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terror organization, as it moves closer to reviving the nuclear agreement with Tehran.
OBSERVATION - Iran playing the US like a fiddle, essentially getting everything they want. Removal of terrorist designation would give IRGC a lot of maneuver room to move internationally and coordinator with proxy forces.

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Black Swans -

South Africa facing a locust infestation of “biblical proportion” that is threatening a substantial acreage of crops. Just adds to the overall pressure on global food supplies this year

Threat Trending Code Color Key

BLACK - An area worth noting, but not immediately impacting on US safety
BLUE - Incidents increasing and needing further monitoring, low threat to the US
YELLOW - This is the moderate concern level. Definitely becoming a threat but in the longer term.
ORANGE - A definite threat in both short term and long term. Some active events occurring
RED - Active and ongoing. Examples of this would be 2020 rioting, etc.

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Globalism / Great Reset - YELLOW trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Monitoring efforts to key off the Ukraine war to push for their global goals.
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Wuhan virus - YELLOW *last updated 12-10-21*
DISCUSSION - News largely overwhelmed by Ukraine reporting. Some rules are being silently locked in while other mandates are being removed/suspended. The distraction of war is allowing the remnants of mandates to be hidden for later use - as needed.

Fauci has emerged from whatever cave or crypt he’s been hiding in the last several weeks because he’s so excited to let us all know that we should put our masks back on.
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Economy - RED * Updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - Fed raised rates .25% with increased inflation pressures due in part to housing and gasoline.

Growth in U.S. retail sales slowed in February after surging a month earlier, suggesting that consumers tempered their spending in some categories as inflation limited purchasing power. The value of overall retail purchases increased 0.3 per cent, after an upwardly revised 4.9 per cent gain in January, Commerce Department figures showed Wednesday. The February advance was led by a 5.3 per cent jump in spending for gasoline. Excluding gas stations, sales fell 0.2 per cent last month. The figures aren’t adjusted for inflation.

U.S. and global oil prices rebounded over $100/barrel on new concerns about supplies. As noted before, prices will be volatile for the foreseeable future.
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Invasion of Illegals - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Illegals continue to push across the border with record numbers of intercepts

Biden administration officials are quietly bracing for a potential influx of more than 170,000 migrants at the southern border when a Trump-era COVID policy that allows for instant expulsions ends, Axios reports.
Border authorities have been relying on a federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) order known as Title 42 to turn away migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border since March 2020. According to Axios, the CDC reviews the order every 60 days, with the next review coming up in early April. Reuters reported last week that the Biden administration is leaning toward ending Title 42, according to two U.S. officials familiar with the matter.
OBSERVATION - This would open wide the flood gates into an uncontrollable rush of illegals across the border.

The United States authorized the departure of families and some personnel Wednesday at the U.S. consulate in the Mexican border city of Nuevo Laredo. The move came after drug cartel gunmen fired at the U.S. consulate building in Nuevo Laredo, across the border from Laredo, Texas, during Sunday night. “The Department of State authorized the departure of non-emergency U.S. government personnel and eligible family members from the U.S. Consulate General in Nuevo Laredo due to security conditions,” a department statement said.
OBSERVATION - Cartels are taking control of the border and this will spread deeper into the US unless stopped by the adminstration - an action highly unlikely.

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Biden watch - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Mental facilities continue to degrade. Harris’ mental capabilities are also questionable.

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CW2/Domestic violence - YELLOW trending neutral to down *updated 01/21/22*
DISCUSSION - Generally quiet activity on the BLM/Antifa front. Rampant crime continues

BLM / Antifa elements in Seattle and Portland are training participants in strategy for protesting and guided discussion on navigating on the ground safety, basic first aid, and gunshot wounds and trauma.

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China - ORANGE trending neutral to upward

RUMINT - A whistleblower from Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) reported that Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping had considered launching an invasion of Taiwan in the fall of this year before the “window of opportunity” closed with the disastrous Russian invasion of Ukraine. According to the March 4 report, Xi had been “considering taking over Taiwan in the fall.” Part of the rationale given for that timing was that Xi “needs his own little victory to get re-elected for a third term,” a reference to the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, amid what the analyst described as a “colossal” power struggle among China’s elite.

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North Korea - YELLOW tending upward (UPDATED 03-18-22)

Increased ballistic missile and potential nuclear testing resumption are trending the category upward. New conservation SK govt could be more confrontative towards the north as well.
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Russia - RED * updated 02=18-22*
DISCUSSION - INCREASED WARNING ONGOING -

WAR WATCH - This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Continued full scale operations so topple the government in Kyiv and control the entire country.

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Russia warned the United States on Thursday that Moscow had the might to put the world’s pre-eminent superpower in its place and accused the West of stoking a wild Russophobic plot to tear Russia apart.
Dmitry Medvedev, who served as president from 2008 to 2012 and is now deputy secretary of Russia’s Security Council, said the United States had stoked “disgusting” Russophobia in an attempt to force Russia to its knees.

It is becoming apparent that Putin is in the progress of instituting a purge in Moscow of those he believers are not supportive of his war against Ukraine. This purge was implied in his recent public statement . Rumors of 1000 arrested/removed from govt. Putin humiliated the director of the SVR, placed two FSB generals under house arrest and had Zolotov, the National Guard, to fire his deputy — in the three weeks of the war. Reports that he has fired 8 generals. Three independent sources report that the deputy chief of Russia’s Rosgvardia (a unit of RU’s interior army which has had tremendous losses in Ukraine), Gen. Roman Gavrilov has been detained by FSB. Gavrilov had also previously worked in FSO, Putin’s security service.

A further indicator of trouble, FM Lavrov was halfway to Beijing when his plane turned around abruptly and returned to Moscow⁦⁩. Unclear if Putin called him back or Chinese side got cold feet. More raised eyebrows over the mass air flights yesterday. Some think There’s a power struggle suddenly unfolding in the capital and Lavrov’s presence was urgently needed.
AGAIN, news has been tightly censored coming out or Moscow, so speculation is rampant.

Reinforcements - Russian military units of the stationed in South Ossetia were reported in convoy to Donbass region.
Japanese defense forces say they spotted four large Russian amphibious warfare ships traveling west & are not ruling out that they are heading to Europe. They are reportedly loaded with equipment too.
OBSERVATION - a VERY long voyage that will likely fail unless Russia is looking to force Turkey’s blockade of military ships at the Bosphorus Straits.

Economic Hits -
Russia prevented its first default on foreign debt since the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution by making a $117 million payment on interest due on two U.S. dollar-denominated bonds, its finance ministry said Thursday.

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Ukraine - RED *updated 02-18-22* - The battle for Kyiv and Ukraine has entered its fourth week.

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 22th show a warming trend into the 50’s . Conditions maintain for muddy off road conditions, but no forecast for any rain which would basically put a nail into any maneuvering off road.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Total refugee count has exceeded 3 million.

Rough baseline estimate of losses -
Russia has lost 1502 vehicles, including 240 tanks and 449 A/IFVs.
Ukraine has lost 373 vehicles, including 66 tanks and 113 A/IFVs
NOTE - Ukraine has captured a lot of the Russian equipment that has been abandoned, restoring a lot of their losses.

The commander of the VDV’s 331st Airborne Regiment, Colonel Sergei Sukharev, was reportedly killed in Ukraine along with four other members of the regiment.

Biggest reported cruse missile strikes hit the airport at Lviv, targeting an aircraft repair facility. with at least four Artillery/bombing of civilian areas elsewhere continues with little pause. One hundred and thirty people have been rescued so far from the rubble of a theatre hit by an airstrike in Mariupol, Ukraine’s human rights commissioner says. Hundreds of people were sheltering underground when the theatre was bombed by Russia, ripping the building apart, according to the Ukrainian authorities.

Russian naval activity -
In various days of this week some ships in Sevastopol had their pennant numbers removed as to prevent possible tracking of whose who at sea.
Cruse missiles that hit Lviv overnight reportedly were launched from a Russian sub in the Black Sea.

Russian ground forces remain essentially stalled and combat ineffective on all fronts. Compilation of recent actions by both Russia and Ukraine show both attempting to go on the offensive in a limited manner.

Kyiv front -
Compilation of reports over the past several days indicates that the Ukraine is pressing a counter-attack on the western side of the Russian salient. The result has been forcing Russia to pull back from the Kyiv area to address this flank attack. The attack has also endangered Russian forces as there is no way to escape to the east - that is the lowlands adjacent to the Dniper River, so the only escape route is northward. Russian pressure on Kyiv on this front is falling apart.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Ukraine attacks have forced Russian forces away from Kyiv and back toward Chernihv. Russian forces appear to be mustering for a counter attack and reportedly have massed a lot of artillery to support the attack as well as continue to pound Chernihv.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Two extremely extended Russian attack axes from Konotop and Sumy depicted on the map link below have been essentially eliminated and remaining Russia forces pushed back to the east..

The most aggressive contacts between Russian and Ukrainian forces have taken place in the vicinity of the town of Izyum (Izium). Both sides claim control of the town. What is probably happening is that the town has a river through the middle of it with a key bridge, Russians probably control the north side, Ukraine the south (denying the bridge crossing) Russian forces appear to be attempting to move southward to join separatist forces, cutting off Ukraine forces on the eastern Dombass front. Ukraine claims Russian units lost 30 percent of personnel and equipment. Ukrainian forces claim they killed the commander of the 3rd infantry division colonel Igor Nikolaev (likely a high degree of propaganda - but Russians have been losing a lot of senior leaders at a high rate)

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Russian/separatist forces continue their hold surrounding Mariupol. Conditions in Mariupol continue to be desperate with bombing killing hundreds of civilians. Ukraine forces continue to push to break siege.

Crimea Front -
Russian forces have been dealt setbacks in the face of Ukrainian counterattacks. Following the decimation of Russian forces at Voznesensk. (March 2-3) Ukranian forces have pushed southward out of Mykolaiv and captured Posad-Pokrovs’ke. This denies Russia access to Odessa on the ground and could potentially relieve Kherson. This could also cut off resupply to the Russian push towards Kryvyi Rih.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -

According to a recent Pentagon assessment by the DIA, Russia is expected to brandish threats to use nuclear weapons against the West if stiff Ukrainian resistance continues. Continued concerns that Russia may utilize a false flag event to justify a chemical attack.

Belarus - RED *updated 01-02-28*
DISCUSSION - Managing to keep its forces in country and not commit to ground combat in Ukraine.
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Poland - ORANGE trending upward *updated 3-18-22*
DISCUSSION - Poland could well be withinin Russian crosshairs for its operation in resupplying Ukrainian forces.

Poland will formally submit a proposal for a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine at the next NATO summit, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Friday.

The UK will deploy a Sky Sabre Air Defence System to Poland and 100 personnel to operate it.
This comes at the Polish Government’s request. Two US Patriot batteries are protecting the Polish airfield being used to move material into Ukraine.
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Europe / NATO General - ORANGE *updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - Increasing potential that NATO will become involved in an Ukraine invasion as Poland, Romania and the Baltic Nations respond.

Arms, munitions and other supplies continue to be contributed to Ukraine via Poland. US offer of ADA systems compatible with those Ukraine has is hitting bumps due to lack of prior coordination by biden to “contributing” nations.
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Israel - ORANGE trending neutral to upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Ongoing threat from Hezbollah and Iran continues.

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