Replies

Threat Trending Code Color Key

BLACK - An area worth noting, but not immediately impacting on US safety
BLUE - Incidents increasing and needing further monitoring, low threat to the US
YELLOW - This is the moderate concern level. Definitely becoming a threat but in the longer term.
ORANGE - A definite threat in both short term and long term. Some active events occurring
RED - Active and ongoing. Examples of this would be 2020 rioting, etc.

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Globalism / Great Reset - YELLOW trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Monitoring efforts to key off the Ukraine war to push for their global goals.
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Wuhan virus - YELLOW *last updated 12-10-21*
DISCUSSION - News largely overwhelmed by Ukraine reporting. Some rules are being silently locked in while other mandates are being removed/suspended. The distraction of war is allowing the remnants of mandates to be hidden for later use - as needed.

Fauci has emerged from whatever cave or crypt he’s been hiding in the last several weeks because he’s so excited to let us all know that we should put our masks back on.
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Economy - RED * Updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - Fed raised rates .25% with increased inflation pressures due in part to housing and gasoline.

Growth in U.S. retail sales slowed in February after surging a month earlier, suggesting that consumers tempered their spending in some categories as inflation limited purchasing power. The value of overall retail purchases increased 0.3 per cent, after an upwardly revised 4.9 per cent gain in January, Commerce Department figures showed Wednesday. The February advance was led by a 5.3 per cent jump in spending for gasoline. Excluding gas stations, sales fell 0.2 per cent last month. The figures aren’t adjusted for inflation.

U.S. and global oil prices rebounded over $100/barrel on new concerns about supplies. As noted before, prices will be volatile for the foreseeable future.
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Invasion of Illegals - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Illegals continue to push across the border with record numbers of intercepts

Biden administration officials are quietly bracing for a potential influx of more than 170,000 migrants at the southern border when a Trump-era COVID policy that allows for instant expulsions ends, Axios reports.
Border authorities have been relying on a federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) order known as Title 42 to turn away migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border since March 2020. According to Axios, the CDC reviews the order every 60 days, with the next review coming up in early April. Reuters reported last week that the Biden administration is leaning toward ending Title 42, according to two U.S. officials familiar with the matter.
OBSERVATION - This would open wide the flood gates into an uncontrollable rush of illegals across the border.

The United States authorized the departure of families and some personnel Wednesday at the U.S. consulate in the Mexican border city of Nuevo Laredo. The move came after drug cartel gunmen fired at the U.S. consulate building in Nuevo Laredo, across the border from Laredo, Texas, during Sunday night. “The Department of State authorized the departure of non-emergency U.S. government personnel and eligible family members from the U.S. Consulate General in Nuevo Laredo due to security conditions,” a department statement said.
OBSERVATION - Cartels are taking control of the border and this will spread deeper into the US unless stopped by the adminstration - an action highly unlikely.

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Biden watch - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Mental facilities continue to degrade. Harris’ mental capabilities are also questionable.

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CW2/Domestic violence - YELLOW trending neutral to down *updated 01/21/22*
DISCUSSION - Generally quiet activity on the BLM/Antifa front. Rampant crime continues

BLM / Antifa elements in Seattle and Portland are training participants in strategy for protesting and guided discussion on navigating on the ground safety, basic first aid, and gunshot wounds and trauma.

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China - ORANGE trending neutral to upward

RUMINT - A whistleblower from Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) reported that Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping had considered launching an invasion of Taiwan in the fall of this year before the “window of opportunity” closed with the disastrous Russian invasion of Ukraine. According to the March 4 report, Xi had been “considering taking over Taiwan in the fall.” Part of the rationale given for that timing was that Xi “needs his own little victory to get re-elected for a third term,” a reference to the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, amid what the analyst described as a “colossal” power struggle among China’s elite.

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North Korea - YELLOW tending upward (UPDATED 03-18-22)

Increased ballistic missile and potential nuclear testing resumption are trending the category upward. New conservation SK govt could be more confrontative towards the north as well.
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Russia - RED * updated 02=18-22*
DISCUSSION - INCREASED WARNING ONGOING -

WAR WATCH - This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Continued full scale operations so topple the government in Kyiv and control the entire country.

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Russia warned the United States on Thursday that Moscow had the might to put the world’s pre-eminent superpower in its place and accused the West of stoking a wild Russophobic plot to tear Russia apart.
Dmitry Medvedev, who served as president from 2008 to 2012 and is now deputy secretary of Russia’s Security Council, said the United States had stoked “disgusting” Russophobia in an attempt to force Russia to its knees.

It is becoming apparent that Putin is in the progress of instituting a purge in Moscow of those he believers are not supportive of his war against Ukraine. This purge was implied in his recent public statement . Rumors of 1000 arrested/removed from govt. Putin humiliated the director of the SVR, placed two FSB generals under house arrest and had Zolotov, the National Guard, to fire his deputy — in the three weeks of the war. Reports that he has fired 8 generals. Three independent sources report that the deputy chief of Russia’s Rosgvardia (a unit of RU’s interior army which has had tremendous losses in Ukraine), Gen. Roman Gavrilov has been detained by FSB. Gavrilov had also previously worked in FSO, Putin’s security service.

A further indicator of trouble, FM Lavrov was halfway to Beijing when his plane turned around abruptly and returned to Moscow⁦⁩. Unclear if Putin called him back or Chinese side got cold feet. More raised eyebrows over the mass air flights yesterday. Some think There’s a power struggle suddenly unfolding in the capital and Lavrov’s presence was urgently needed.
AGAIN, news has been tightly censored coming out or Moscow, so speculation is rampant.

Reinforcements - Russian military units of the stationed in South Ossetia were reported in convoy to Donbass region.
Japanese defense forces say they spotted four large Russian amphibious warfare ships traveling west & are not ruling out that they are heading to Europe. They are reportedly loaded with equipment too.
OBSERVATION - a VERY long voyage that will likely fail unless Russia is looking to force Turkey’s blockade of military ships at the Bosphorus Straits.

Economic Hits -
Russia prevented its first default on foreign debt since the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution by making a $117 million payment on interest due on two U.S. dollar-denominated bonds, its finance ministry said Thursday.

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Ukraine - RED *updated 02-18-22* - The battle for Kyiv and Ukraine has entered its fourth week.

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 22th show a warming trend into the 50’s . Conditions maintain for muddy off road conditions, but no forecast for any rain which would basically put a nail into any maneuvering off road.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Total refugee count has exceeded 3 million.

Rough baseline estimate of losses -
Russia has lost 1502 vehicles, including 240 tanks and 449 A/IFVs.
Ukraine has lost 373 vehicles, including 66 tanks and 113 A/IFVs
NOTE - Ukraine has captured a lot of the Russian equipment that has been abandoned, restoring a lot of their losses.

The commander of the VDV’s 331st Airborne Regiment, Colonel Sergei Sukharev, was reportedly killed in Ukraine along with four other members of the regiment.

Over 1000 missiles (cruse and ballistic ) have been fired at Ukraine by Russia since the start of the conflict. Some analysts believe that the missile consumption rate is far beyond what Russia had planned on and has essentially depleted its newer munitions. They believe Russia is relying more on older, less accurate models which are adequate for striking large targets like residential apartments.

Biggest reported cruse missile strikes hit the airport at Lviv, targeting an aircraft repair facility. with at least four Artillery/bombing of civilian areas elsewhere continues with little pause. One hundred and thirty people have been rescued so far from the rubble of a theatre hit by an airstrike in Mariupol, Ukraine’s human rights commissioner says. Hundreds of people were sheltering underground when the theatre was bombed by Russia, ripping the building apart, according to the Ukrainian authorities.

Russian naval activity -
In various days of this week some ships in Sevastopol had their pennant numbers removed as to prevent possible tracking of whose who at sea.
Cruse missiles that hit Lviv overnight reportedly were launched from a Russian sub in the Black Sea.

Russian ground forces remain essentially stalled and combat ineffective on all fronts. Compilation of recent actions by both Russia and Ukraine show both attempting to go on the offensive in a limited manner.

Kyiv front -
Compilation of reports over the past several days indicates that the Ukraine is pressing a counter-attack on the western side of the Russian salient. The result has been forcing Russia to pull back from the Kyiv area to address this flank attack. The attack has also endangered Russian forces as there is no way to escape to the east - that is the lowlands adjacent to the Dniper River, so the only escape route is northward. Russian pressure on Kyiv on this front is falling apart.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Ukraine attacks have forced Russian forces away from Kyiv and back toward Chernihv. Russian forces appear to be mustering for a counter attack and reportedly have massed a lot of artillery to support the attack as well as continue to pound Chernihv.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Two extremely extended Russian attack axes from Konotop and Sumy depicted on the map link below have been essentially eliminated and remaining Russia forces pushed back to the east..

The most aggressive contacts between Russian and Ukrainian forces have taken place in the vicinity of the town of Izyum (Izium). Both sides claim control of the town. What is probably happening is that the town has a river through the middle of it with a key bridge, Russians probably control the north side, Ukraine the south (denying the bridge crossing) Russian forces appear to be attempting to move southward to join separatist forces, cutting off Ukraine forces on the eastern Dombass front. Ukraine claims Russian units lost 30 percent of personnel and equipment. Ukrainian forces claim they killed the commander of the 3rd infantry division colonel Igor Nikolaev (likely a high degree of propaganda - but Russians have been losing a lot of senior leaders at a high rate)

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Russian/separatist forces continue their hold surrounding Mariupol. Conditions in Mariupol continue to be desperate with bombing killing hundreds of civilians. Ukraine forces continue to push to break siege.

Crimea Front -
Russian forces have been dealt setbacks in the face of Ukrainian counterattacks. Following the decimation of Russian forces at Voznesensk. (March 2-3) Ukranian forces have pushed southward out of Mykolaiv and captured Posad-Pokrovs’ke. This denies Russia access to Odessa on the ground and could potentially relieve Kherson. This could also cut off resupply to the Russian push towards Kryvyi Rih.

Watch continues on the amphibious force still holding off the west coast of Crimea. Failure to gain ground to encircle Odessa is likely to delay any amphibious operation, unless Russian believes those attacks have diverted enough assets away from shore defenses to risk a forced landing. No evidence of an impending amphibious operation.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -

Barring a significant event to free up Russian ground forces to maneuver against Ukraine defenders, I see very little changes on the ground, with continued high Russian casualty and equipment loss rates. Political instability in the homeland may push Putin to do something drastic.

According to a recent Pentagon assessment by the DIA, Russia is expected to brandish threats to use nuclear weapons against the West if stiff Ukrainian resistance continues. Continued concerns that Russia may utilize a false flag event to justify a chemical attack.

Air attacks will continue with likely greater intensity, relying on cruse missiles to target residential areas of major cities like Kyiv, Mariupol, Khariv, etc. Russian close air support will continue to suffer at the hands of the abundant, shoulder fired SAMs that take several jets out every day as well as numerous helicopters.
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Belarus - RED *updated 01-02-28*
DISCUSSION - Managing to keep its forces in country and not commit to ground combat in Ukraine.
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Poland - ORANGE trending upward *updated 3-18-22*
DISCUSSION - Poland could well be withinin Russian crosshairs for its operation in resupplying Ukrainian forces.

Poland will formally submit a proposal for a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine at the next NATO summit, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Friday.

The UK will deploy a Sky Sabre Air Defence System to Poland and 100 personnel to operate it.
This comes at the Polish Government’s request. Two US Patriot batteries are protecting the Polish airfield being used to move material into Ukraine.
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Europe / NATO General - ORANGE *updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - Increasing potential that NATO will become involved in an Ukraine invasion as Poland, Romania and the Baltic Nations respond.

Arms, munitions and other supplies continue to be contributed to Ukraine via Poland. US offer of ADA systems compatible with those Ukraine has is hitting bumps due to lack of prior coordination by biden to “contributing” nations.
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Israel - ORANGE trending neutral to upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Ongoing threat from Hezbollah and Iran continues.

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Globalism / Great Reset -

The International Energy Agency said Friday that a shortage of oil supply worldwide tied to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine can be countered with specific actions to reduce consumption that governments and citizens can take immediately.
A report issued by the IEA on Friday includes a 10-point plan that it says “could lower oil demand by 2.7 million barrels a day within four months — equivalent to the oil demand for all the cars in China.”
OBSERVATION - These ‘recommendations’ are in line to progressively push the country towards the GGR’s green policies.
There is also rumblings out the that biden et al could use this to declare a ‘crisis’ and force more draconian measures via EO.

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Wuhan virus -

Dr. Ashish Jha, a rabid supporter of COVID vaccine passports and vaccine mandates for air travel, has been named as the new White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator.
Jha described as “nonsense” the argument that vaccine passports infringe upon “personal freedom,” reported the National Pulse.
“Vaccine certificates are needed so everyone’s full participation in society can be restored,” he wrote last year in the Economist.
Then he called for mandatory vaccines on airlines, arguing that mask mandates alone could not keep passengers safe.

OBSERVATION - If biden reinstitute wuhan measures, this guy will likely push for even more tyrannical actions.

After a surge in COVID cases caused by the BA.2 Omicron sub-variant, Austria is set to re-impose mask mandates that were dropped just two weeks ago.
Some are viewing this variant, combined with the refugee crisis caused by the Ukraine war, as a mega super spreader event. However, BA.2 variant proving even less dangerous than the original Omicron variant in terms of hospitalisations and deaths,
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Economy -

St. Louis Federal Reserve president James Bullard on Friday called for a dramatic increase in the Fed’s overnight lending rate to more than 3% this year, a step he feels is needed to catch up with inflation posing a “particularly heavy” burden on families.
In a released statement explaining his dissent against the Fed’s approval of a quarter point increase this week, Bullard said the Fed “will have to move quickly to address this situation or risk losing credibility on its inflation target.”
OBSERVATION - This is twice what the fed as a whole is planning. It will be interesting to see if his views gain traction with the Fed board. Jumping rates too quickly/high could backfire and drop the country into a depression.
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Invasion of Illegals -

Estimates of 170,000 or more could suddenly flood the border is Title 42 restrictions are lifted.
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Biden / Harris watch -

biden held a 2 hr call with China’s Xi.
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China -

Xi tells Biden war in Ukraine in no-one’s interest.
Reuters cites Chinese state-owned media outlets saying that Xi Jinping supported peace in Ukraine.
According to the report, Xi told his U.S. counterpart Joe Biden that the two countries must make an effort for world peace.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands now entering the 4th week of war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Russian assaults across the board have all stalled out.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 100% of the combat force Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, It is becoming more and more apparent Russia has been scrambling to get more combat forces into theater and support those already committed.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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At least 81,000 people attend a pro-war rally in Moscow’s Luzhniki stadium. Russian authorities claim over 200,000 people attend the event celebrating Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014. Putin gave a speech from a stage at the venue - after discussing Moscow’s military operation in Ukraine with his security council on Friday, RIA news agency cited the Kremlin as saying. He told the cheering thousands “we will implement all our plans”, insisting that the “main purpose” of the invasion of Ukraine is to “save people from suffering and genocide”.
OBSERVATIONS - Reports that many of the attendees were ‘forced’ to attend.

Russia on Friday warned countries arming Ukraine that they will be considered “legitimate targets” for retaliation.
“We clearly said that any cargo moving into the Ukrainian territory which we would believe is carrying weapons would be fair game,” Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told RT television, a state-controlled network, ABC News reported.
“This is clear because we are implementing the operation the goal of which is to remove any threat to the Russian Federation coming from the Ukrainian soil.”
Perhaps as a warning, Russia announced it used its hypersonic missile to destroy a non-specific underground ammunition storage facility. Some are viewing this as a threat towards Poland and other NATO nations supporting Ukraine.

Russia still pulling in reinforcements. The latest are reports that Russia will deploy troops from the 102nd Russian military base in Armenia to support its offensive against Ukraine. That base at full capacity is only 3,000 troops.

Economic Impacts -
- Moscow Stock Exchange will reportedly resume trading on Monday after 3 weeks of closure. However, there are reports that neither the stock nor the corporate bond market will open on Monday, only the market for government bonds will open. Russian central bank will likely scoop up any bonds on offer, i.e. monetarize state debt & accept inflation.
- Australia said on March 18 it expanded sanctions against Russia to include 11 more Russian banks and government entities, as well as oligarchs Oleg Deripaska and Viktor Vekselberg.
- Haliburton is suspending any support to Russian oil operatons/companies.

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Ukraine -

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Total refugee count has exceeded 3 million.

Over 1000 missiles (cruse and ballistic ) have been fired at Ukraine by Russia since the start of the conflict.

There is a lot of ‘hype’ about the reported Russian use of a hypersonic missile.

Russian naval activity - nothing significant

Russian ground forces remain essentially stalled and combat ineffective on all fronts. The Crimea front has suffered some severe set backs, see below. Ukrainian counter attacks have been largely successful inflicting more Russian personnel and equipment losses and forcing Russians to pull back in many sectors. US and UK intelligence sources note that Ukrainian command and control is effectively coordinating combat operations across the country.

Kyiv front -
Russian forces completely stalled and facing counter attacks by Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian forces claim that they have constructed two defensive rings around Kyiv and are preparing to build a third.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Russian forces are redirecting their efforts to encircle Chernihiv and are hammering the city with a lot of artillery and bombs. However, Russian forces continue to take heavy casualties. Ukrainian forces continue to hold Russian forces away from advancing towards Kyiv.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Continued Russian efforts to isolate Sumy and Khariv, but sustaining heavy casualties in doing so. The westward attempts to join forces up to siege Kyiv have failed and likely been forced back (though not necessarily depicted on maps). An offensive pushing south appears to have been stopped at Izium. The apparent goal of this move was to try to cut off Ukraine forces fighting against the separatists in the Dombass region.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Russian/Chechen forces have pushed into the central part of Mariupol as intense fighting has broken out overnight. Russian forces have apparently stopped an Ukraine assault to relieve the city.
The bomb shelter in Mariupol Drama Theatre has survived the brutal Russian missile. At least, majority stayed alive after bombing. People are getting out from the rubble. However, fighting has stopped rescue efforts.

Crimea Front -
One of the more active sectors continues to see Ukrainian gains. Per Ukrainian officials, due to the ongoing Ukrainian counter-offensive, the cities of Luch, Shevchenkove and Mykolaiv are back under Ukrainian control. They have further pushed to at least as far as Posad-Pokrovs’ke - about half way between Mykolaiv and Kherson. Ukrainian counterattacks appear to be coming from 2 directions push towards Kherson, One from Mykolaiv and the second from Snihurivka. There are reports of heavy fighting in and around Komyshany, west of Kherson overnight.

At the same time, it appears that Russian forces are trying to attack to the northeast between these two Ukrainian attacks. However as the Ukraine attack presses in on Kherson, the Russian effort faces being cut off from its logistical base.
Kherson was a key objective of Russian forces. Control over Kherson allows Russia to restore fresh water supplies to Crimea; Ukraine cut off the water after Russia annexed the peninsula in 2014. Also a key piece of terrain to support any operation to encircle Odessa.

The Ukraine offensive towards Kherson has had signifiant impacts on the Russian army. Yesterday, sources in Ukraine say Russian Lieutenant General Andrey Mordvichev, Commander of the 8th Combined Arms Army has been killed. Advisor to President Zelensky says “preliminary data” following a strike on a Russian command post in Kherson suggests Mordvichev was killed. This attack on the airport appears to be the same one on Tuesday that took out nearly two dozen Russian helicopters.
This would be the 5th general taken out during this war. The attack also has forced Russian to start evacuating equipment from the airfield. Videos show damaged (but presumably repairable) helicopters being towed out the the airfield.
OBSERVATION - The strike on a command post likely killed other senior officers in addition to a general. This decapation in the face of a determined Ukrainian counter offensive will definitely throw the Russian forces into greater confusion. The Russian forces in the Crimea sector have been the most successful because IMHO they were the best trained. Attrition and failed gambles have taken their toll and the loss of senior leadership will not help.
The crumpling of this portion of Russian’s front will almost doom any amphibious assault to capture Odessa.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg
Other clarifying maps here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOKjq9JX0AEu5JL?format=jpg&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOKhyP-XEA4A448?format=jpg&name=large

OUTLOOK -

Ukrainian counter offensives gaining success on the Crimea front - essentially shutting down a ground encirclement of Odessa and thwarting an amphibious operation. Russian forces will attempt to seal off key Russian cities and then rubble them.

IMHO the introduction to hypersonic missiles will have little impact on the tactical situation. It appears to be more posturing by Russia to intimidate NATO resupply efforts. These are expensive munitions and wont be tossed around indiscriminately as they do dummy bombs. Plus how many they have in their inventory is likely to be limited.

Barring a significant event to free up Russian ground forces to maneuver against Ukraine defenders, I see Russian forces being forced into a more defensive posture , making them vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks.

The most serious concern is if Russia decides to directly attack western supply operations. Rhetoric from Moscow increasingly suggests that Russia may attack NATO countries supplying arms and munitions.

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Belarus -

Unconfirmed - There are so many dead & wounded Russian soldiers in Homel region, Belarus, that they’ve started loading corpses on trains at night “so as not to attract attention.” 2,500 KIA sent back to Russia, hospital staff say. That’s 5x the official number
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Europe / NATO General -

7 NATO countries have stated that they would support a NATO Peacekeeping mission into Ukraine: Slovenia, Czechia, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and now Denmark, there are rumors that France and Slovakia would also Vote Yes.

Slovakia has offered its S300 systems and are ready to transfer to Ukraine but under Russia threat of attack. In response the Netherlands Ministry of Defense has announced that they will deploy Patriot SAM system in Slovakia . Germany expected to send a second system.

Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania have expelled a total of ten Russian diplomats, the foreign ministries of the three Baltic countries said on Friday.

Biden will attend the NATO summit on Ukraine in Brussels next Thursday, go to the European Council meeting afterward and then attend a G7 meeting called by Germany.

EU leaders are in possession of “very reliable evidence” that China is considering military assistance to Russia . The EU will “impose trade barriers against China” should Beijing proceed with Russia’s request. EU-China summit is scheduled for April 1

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Black Swans -

Highly pathogenic and lethal avian influenza virus is now spreading across the U.S. and has now been discovered in both commercial poultry flocks and backyard flocks in 12 states in the U.S. including Kansas, Illinois, Iowa, and Wisconsin.
Millions of chickens infected with the deadly and contagious avian flu in Iowa and Wisconsin have been killed to contain the disease.

A worsening drought in the southern U.S. Plains is threatening the region’s winter wheat crop. As of March 6, just 24% of Kansas’ wheat crop was in good condition or better, while 39% was rated poor to very poor, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

NOTE - this will increase prices in the US eventually.