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To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; AZ .44 MAG; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; ...

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Globalism / Great Reset -

The International Energy Agency said Friday that a shortage of oil supply worldwide tied to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine can be countered with specific actions to reduce consumption that governments and citizens can take immediately.
A report issued by the IEA on Friday includes a 10-point plan that it says “could lower oil demand by 2.7 million barrels a day within four months — equivalent to the oil demand for all the cars in China.”
OBSERVATION - These ‘recommendations’ are in line to progressively push the country towards the GGR’s green policies.
There is also rumblings out the that biden et al could use this to declare a ‘crisis’ and force more draconian measures via EO.

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Wuhan virus -

Dr. Ashish Jha, a rabid supporter of COVID vaccine passports and vaccine mandates for air travel, has been named as the new White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator.
Jha described as “nonsense” the argument that vaccine passports infringe upon “personal freedom,” reported the National Pulse.
“Vaccine certificates are needed so everyone’s full participation in society can be restored,” he wrote last year in the Economist.
Then he called for mandatory vaccines on airlines, arguing that mask mandates alone could not keep passengers safe.

OBSERVATION - If biden reinstitute wuhan measures, this guy will likely push for even more tyrannical actions.

After a surge in COVID cases caused by the BA.2 Omicron sub-variant, Austria is set to re-impose mask mandates that were dropped just two weeks ago.
Some are viewing this variant, combined with the refugee crisis caused by the Ukraine war, as a mega super spreader event. However, BA.2 variant proving even less dangerous than the original Omicron variant in terms of hospitalisations and deaths,
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Economy -

St. Louis Federal Reserve president James Bullard on Friday called for a dramatic increase in the Fed’s overnight lending rate to more than 3% this year, a step he feels is needed to catch up with inflation posing a “particularly heavy” burden on families.
In a released statement explaining his dissent against the Fed’s approval of a quarter point increase this week, Bullard said the Fed “will have to move quickly to address this situation or risk losing credibility on its inflation target.”
OBSERVATION - This is twice what the fed as a whole is planning. It will be interesting to see if his views gain traction with the Fed board. Jumping rates too quickly/high could backfire and drop the country into a depression.
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Invasion of Illegals -

Estimates of 170,000 or more could suddenly flood the border is Title 42 restrictions are lifted.
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Biden / Harris watch -

biden held a 2 hr call with China’s Xi.
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China -

Xi tells Biden war in Ukraine in no-one’s interest.
Reuters cites Chinese state-owned media outlets saying that Xi Jinping supported peace in Ukraine.
According to the report, Xi told his U.S. counterpart Joe Biden that the two countries must make an effort for world peace.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands now entering the 4th week of war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Russian assaults across the board have all stalled out.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 100% of the combat force Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, It is becoming more and more apparent Russia has been scrambling to get more combat forces into theater and support those already committed.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********

At least 81,000 people attend a pro-war rally in Moscow’s Luzhniki stadium. Russian authorities claim over 200,000 people attend the event celebrating Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014. Putin gave a speech from a stage at the venue - after discussing Moscow’s military operation in Ukraine with his security council on Friday, RIA news agency cited the Kremlin as saying. He told the cheering thousands “we will implement all our plans”, insisting that the “main purpose” of the invasion of Ukraine is to “save people from suffering and genocide”.
OBSERVATIONS - Reports that many of the attendees were ‘forced’ to attend.

Russia on Friday warned countries arming Ukraine that they will be considered “legitimate targets” for retaliation.
“We clearly said that any cargo moving into the Ukrainian territory which we would believe is carrying weapons would be fair game,” Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told RT television, a state-controlled network, ABC News reported.
“This is clear because we are implementing the operation the goal of which is to remove any threat to the Russian Federation coming from the Ukrainian soil.”
Perhaps as a warning, Russia announced it used its hypersonic missile to destroy a non-specific underground ammunition storage facility. Some are viewing this as a threat towards Poland and other NATO nations supporting Ukraine.

Russia still pulling in reinforcements. The latest are reports that Russia will deploy troops from the 102nd Russian military base in Armenia to support its offensive against Ukraine. That base at full capacity is only 3,000 troops.

Economic Impacts -
- Moscow Stock Exchange will reportedly resume trading on Monday after 3 weeks of closure. However, there are reports that neither the stock nor the corporate bond market will open on Monday, only the market for government bonds will open. Russian central bank will likely scoop up any bonds on offer, i.e. monetarize state debt & accept inflation.
- Australia said on March 18 it expanded sanctions against Russia to include 11 more Russian banks and government entities, as well as oligarchs Oleg Deripaska and Viktor Vekselberg.
- Haliburton is suspending any support to Russian oil operatons/companies.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 22th show a warming trend into the 50’s . Conditions maintain for muddy off road conditions, but no forecast for any rain which would basically put a nail into any maneuvering off road.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Total refugee count has exceeded 3 million.

Over 1000 missiles (cruse and ballistic ) have been fired at Ukraine by Russia since the start of the conflict.

There is a lot of ‘hype’ about the reported Russian use of a hypersonic missile.

Russian naval activity - nothing significant

Russian ground forces remain essentially stalled and combat ineffective on all fronts. The Crimea front has suffered some severe set backs, see below. Ukrainian counter attacks have been largely successful inflicting more Russian personnel and equipment losses and forcing Russians to pull back in many sectors. US and UK intelligence sources note that Ukrainian command and control is effectively coordinating combat operations across the country.

Kyiv front -
Russian forces completely stalled and facing counter attacks by Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian forces claim that they have constructed two defensive rings around Kyiv and are preparing to build a third.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Russian forces are redirecting their efforts to encircle Chernihiv and are hammering the city with a lot of artillery and bombs. However, Russian forces continue to take heavy casualties. Ukrainian forces continue to hold Russian forces away from advancing towards Kyiv.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Continued Russian efforts to isolate Sumy and Khariv, but sustaining heavy casualties in doing so. The westward attempts to join forces up to siege Kyiv have failed and likely been forced back (though not necessarily depicted on maps). An offensive pushing south appears to have been stopped at Izium. The apparent goal of this move was to try to cut off Ukraine forces fighting against the separatists in the Dombass region.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Russian/Chechen forces have pushed into the central part of Mariupol as intense fighting has broken out overnight. Russian forces have apparently stopped an Ukraine assault to relieve the city.
The bomb shelter in Mariupol Drama Theatre has survived the brutal Russian missile. At least, majority stayed alive after bombing. People are getting out from the rubble. However, fighting has stopped rescue efforts.

Crimea Front -
One of the more active sectors continues to see Ukrainian gains. Per Ukrainian officials, due to the ongoing Ukrainian counter-offensive, the cities of Luch, Shevchenkove and Mykolaiv are back under Ukrainian control. They have further pushed to at least as far as Posad-Pokrovs’ke - about half way between Mykolaiv and Kherson. Ukrainian counterattacks appear to be coming from 2 directions push towards Kherson, One from Mykolaiv and the second from Snihurivka. There are reports of heavy fighting in and around Komyshany, west of Kherson overnight.

At the same time, it appears that Russian forces are trying to attack to the northeast between these two Ukrainian attacks. However as the Ukraine attack presses in on Kherson, the Russian effort faces being cut off from its logistical base.
Kherson was a key objective of Russian forces. Control over Kherson allows Russia to restore fresh water supplies to Crimea; Ukraine cut off the water after Russia annexed the peninsula in 2014. Also a key piece of terrain to support any operation to encircle Odessa.

The Ukraine offensive towards Kherson has had signifiant impacts on the Russian army. Yesterday, sources in Ukraine say Russian Lieutenant General Andrey Mordvichev, Commander of the 8th Combined Arms Army has been killed. Advisor to President Zelensky says “preliminary data” following a strike on a Russian command post in Kherson suggests Mordvichev was killed. This attack on the airport appears to be the same one on Tuesday that took out nearly two dozen Russian helicopters.
This would be the 5th general taken out during this war. The attack also has forced Russian to start evacuating equipment from the airfield. Videos show damaged (but presumably repairable) helicopters being towed out the the airfield.
OBSERVATION - The strike on a command post likely killed other senior officers in addition to a general. This decapation in the face of a determined Ukrainian counter offensive will definitely throw the Russian forces into greater confusion. The Russian forces in the Crimea sector have been the most successful because IMHO they were the best trained. Attrition and failed gambles have taken their toll and the loss of senior leadership will not help.
The crumpling of this portion of Russian’s front will almost doom any amphibious assault to capture Odessa.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg
Other clarifying maps here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOKjq9JX0AEu5JL?format=jpg&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOKhyP-XEA4A448?format=jpg&name=large

OUTLOOK -

Ukrainian counter offensives gaining success on the Crimea front - essentially shutting down a ground encirclement of Odessa and thwarting an amphibious operation. Russian forces will attempt to seal off key Russian cities and then rubble them.

IMHO the introduction to hypersonic missiles will have little impact on the tactical situation. It appears to be more posturing by Russia to intimidate NATO resupply efforts. These are expensive munitions and wont be tossed around indiscriminately as they do dummy bombs. Plus how many they have in their inventory is likely to be limited.

Barring a significant event to free up Russian ground forces to maneuver against Ukraine defenders, I see Russian forces being forced into a more defensive posture , making them vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks.

Air attacks will continue with likely greater intensity, relying on cruse missiles to target residential areas of major cities like Kyiv, Mariupol, Khariv, etc. Russian close air support will continue to suffer at the hands of the abundant, shoulder fired SAMs that take several jets out every day as well as numerous helicopters.

The most serious concern is if Russia decides to directly attack western supply operations. Rhetoric from Moscow increasingly suggests that Russia may attack NATO countries supplying arms and munitions.

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Belarus -

Unconfirmed - There are so many dead & wounded Russian soldiers in Homel region, Belarus, that they’ve started loading corpses on trains at night “so as not to attract attention.” 2,500 KIA sent back to Russia, hospital staff say. That’s 5x the official number
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Europe / NATO General -

7 NATO countries have stated that they would support a NATO Peacekeeping mission into Ukraine: Slovenia, Czechia, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and now Denmark, there are rumors that France and Slovakia would also Vote Yes.

Slovakia has offered its S300 systems and are ready to transfer to Ukraine but under Russia threat of attack. In response the Netherlands Ministry of Defense has announced that they will deploy Patriot SAM system in Slovakia . Germany expected to send a second system.

Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania have expelled a total of ten Russian diplomats, the foreign ministries of the three Baltic countries said on Friday.

Biden will attend the NATO summit on Ukraine in Brussels next Thursday, go to the European Council meeting afterward and then attend a G7 meeting called by Germany.

EU leaders are in possession of “very reliable evidence” that China is considering military assistance to Russia . The EU will “impose trade barriers against China” should Beijing proceed with Russia’s request. EU-China summit is scheduled for April 1

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Black Swans -

Highly pathogenic and lethal avian influenza virus is now spreading across the U.S. and has now been discovered in both commercial poultry flocks and backyard flocks in 12 states in the U.S. including Kansas, Illinois, Iowa, and Wisconsin.
Millions of chickens infected with the deadly and contagious avian flu in Iowa and Wisconsin have been killed to contain the disease.

A worsening drought in the southern U.S. Plains is threatening the region’s winter wheat crop. As of March 6, just 24% of Kansas’ wheat crop was in good condition or better, while 39% was rated poor to very poor, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

NOTE - this will increase prices in the US eventually.


198 posted on 03/19/2022 7:57:19 AM PDT by Godzilla (Never give up, never surrender . . . . . .)
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To: Godzilla

thanks for the update and research.


199 posted on 03/19/2022 8:02:42 AM PDT by norsky ( <P><img src=" "width=400"></img> <P> <a href= > </a> <img src=" "></img>)
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To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; AZ .44 MAG; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; ...

One quick note before I set to my Saturday chores.
The Russian wonder missile is not so wonderful, in spite of the hype

Analysts noted after Russia announced the development and fielding of the Kinzhal that it was essentially a modified ground-launched Iskander short-range ballistic missile that is adapted for air launch by a MiG-31. This gives it plussed-up performance, but beyond that and some flight profile tweaks there was nothing superior about it.

Other than trying to use it to intimidate Eastern European countries to stop supporting Ukraine, it won’t significantly alter the tactical situation.


200 posted on 03/19/2022 9:50:44 AM PDT by Godzilla (Never give up, never surrender . . . . . .)
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To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; AZ .44 MAG; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; ...

________________________________

Globalism / Great Reset -

Rumbling around in the tinfoil hat realm (though like wuhan rumblings, many did come true) are discussions on how the GGR crowd is going to use the global economic shock waves from the Ukraine war to force its economic agenda. A concerning line of discussion is the growing threat of global food shortages due to the war, lack of fertilizers/chemicals and weather conditions. The axiom of he who controls the food, controls the world” is in play.
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Wuhan virus -

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has removed tens of thousands of deaths linked to COVID-19, including nearly a quarter of deaths it had listed in those under 18 years old.
The health agency quietly made the change on its data tracker website on March 15.

A New Zealand court has defended the rights of Christians to refuse to receive an abortion-tainted COVID shot on the grounds that it constitutes a violation of their conscience, acknowledging that the objection to abortion is “grounded in a core principle” of Christianity.
The High Court of New Zealand ruled on February 25 that a government mandate ordering police officers and New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) personnel to receive a COVID jab in order to carry out work was an “unlawful” impediment on officers’ “free and democratic” rights.
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Biden / Harris watch -

More RUMINT that biden/harris handlers are trying to figure out how to dump them. biden has become a boat anchor with 60% unfavorable ratings. harris is a dumpster fire, lowering the collective IQ where ever she gets sent.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

Antifa in Seattle called for violence at an upcoming conservative “March for Freedom” rally on March 26. They view it as an opportunity for revenge. Some of the antifa flyers call for a shooting.

The Florida cell of violent antifa group, the Youth Liberation Front, has put out a call to action in the state to oppose the anti-child grooming bill. The YLF is encouraging vandalism & “anything else.” The group called for & carried out serious violence during the 2020 riots.

OBSERVATION - This part of a growing trend of advocating violence I’ve noticed. Seems the time of relative dormancy is ending and spurred on with the impending elections they are going to come out of their holes and start attacking people and breaking things. Call for lethal violence is very concerning.
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China -

biden didn’t sway Xi in regards to Ukraine/Russia.

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North Korea -

JCS has stated that North Korea fired four rockets into the Yellow Sea from MLRS systems in the South Pyongan Province.
SK’s National Security Council held an emergency meeting. The reason for such activity is unknown.
OBSERVATION - SK’s new govt leadership said they would be more confrontative of NK, this meeting may be the start of a response to the ongoing NK missile tests.
__________________________________

Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Ukraine still stands after entering the 4th week of war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Russian assaults across the board have all stalled out.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 100% of the combat force Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, It is becoming more and more apparent Russia has been scrambling to get more combat forces into theater and support those already committed.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********

Putin continues to reinforce his control of domestic media, attempting to obscure high casualties amid fierce resistance encountered in his invasion of Ukraine, according to a British Defense Ministry intelligence estimate.

Russian propaganda and the hypersonic missile -
As I noted yesterday, the missile is a modified Iskander-M - not a grand wonder weapon. However, OSINT analysts on the net picked apart Moscow’s target claims in a spectacular way. Russia released a video of the missile strike allegedly taken by an Orban 10 drone near Ivano-Frankiivsk in western Ukraine. So far the story holds as there is a military facility in the general area. However, as analysts looked closer, red flags were raised. First there was no evidence of a warehouse in the video, it appeared to be an open field near a farm. Second, the Orban 10 drone taking the picture doesn’t have the range or image quality to monitor a far western Ukraine target. Satellite photos were reviewed of the alleged target area and nothing matching the released image matched. Then the image was geo matched and it turns out to actually a farm in far Eastern Ukraine. Russia probably did fire the missile, its true target is yet to be confirmed.

More propaganda, trying to set up a false flag event? Russian Ministry of defense accuse Ukraine: in preparations of attack on western diplomats in L’viv, in planting explosives at cylinders with ammonium and chlorine in Sumy, deploying cylinders with chemicals to school in Kotlarovo village of Mykolaiv region
OBSERVATION - Russia has been trying to raise the threat of an Ukrainan NBC event the past couple of weeks. Many believe to justify their own NBC attack to break the current stalemate.

Russia still trying to reinforce the war effort -
- Putin transfers troops from Far East to Belarus. The troops are being moved from Vladivostok and Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky
- Footage of military equipment being loaded onto trains in Abkhazia In NE Georgia published.

Economic Impacts -
- The Australian government has imposed a ban on exports of aluminum, aluminum ores, and bauxite to Russia said Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne.

____________________________________

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 29th show a warming trend into the 50’s . Rain is forecast in the upcoming week. Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions,.

RUNINT -
Ukraine sees a high risk of an attack launched from Belarus on the Volyn region, which lies to the north of the western city of Lviv. It was not immediately clear whether Ukraine saw the threat of an attack on Volyn from Russian forces or the Belarusian military.
Great number of ‘reports’ out there of demoralized Russian troops, from intercepted radio comms as well as POWs. Reports even that the will shoot themselves to avoid combat. Likely a large part of this is Ukraine propaganda, but there may be some fire within this smoke.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

The British defense ministry said the Ukrainian Air Force and air defense forces are “continuing to effectively defend Ukrainian airspace.”
“Russia has failed to gain control of the air and is largely relying on stand-off weapons launched from the relative safety of Russian airspace to strike targets within Ukraine” With that said, air raid sirens sounded across Ukrainian cities on Sunday and Russia’s defense ministry said cruise missiles were launched from ships in the Black Sea and Caspian Sea, as well as hypersonic missiles from Crimean airspace.
ALSO - there are indicators that Russian air sorties have been declining since the first of March. Folks are looking see if weather conditions are to blame, but initially, it should not have been an impediment.

Russian naval activity - Four vessels shelled Mariupol yesterday. Russia is apparently now using the P-800 Oniks supersonic anti-ship missile against ground targets.
A 6th general officer taken down!. Commander’s deputy for military-political work of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet Andrey Paliy was taken down this week. Not totally sure but i think this may be an equivalent to fleet’s political commissar?

Russian ground forces remain essentially stalled and combat ineffective on all fronts. The Crimea front has suffered some severe set backs, see below. Ukrainian counter attacks have been largely successful inflicting more Russian personnel and equipment losses and forcing Russians to pull back in many sectors. US and UK intelligence sources note that Ukrainian command and control is effectively coordinating combat operations across the country.

Losses of 6 Russian generals - as well as senior commanders of combat regiments and battalions - has been unprecedented. This has a definite impact on Russian planning and combat operations as lesser ‘qualified’ leaders have to move up to fill the losses.

Kyiv front -
Russian forces completely stalled and facing counter attacks by Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian forces claim that they have constructed two defensive rings around Kyiv and are preparing to build a third.
Continued rumors that Russia is still preparing for a new push on Kyiv are floating around. Evidence on the ground is that with the pause in the Russian offensive, attack axes towards Kyiv will be extremely difficult to force and Ukraine forces well dug in. Bottom line is that Russia in this and combined with other fronts (Northern and Northeastern) never had sufficient forces to accomplish the encirclement of Kyiv, let alone capture it. Seems Russia is trying to push close enough to start using its artillery to bombard the city in a war of attrition.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Russian forces are redirecting their efforts to encircle Chernihiv and are continuing to hammer the city with a lot of artillery and bombs. However, in doing so Russian forces continue to take heavy casualties. Ukrainian forces continue to hold Russian forces away from advancing towards Kyiv.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Continued Russian efforts to isolate Sumy and Khariv, but sustaining heavy casualties in doing so. Overnight, both cities faced more intense bombing and artillery attacks on its residential areas of the cities proper as well as surrounding communities. An offensive pushing south still appears to have been stopped at Izium although latest reports are the situation is still fluid. The apparent goal of this move was to try to cut off Ukraine forces fighting against the separatists in the Dombass region. This would correspond to a similar effort out of the Crimea front to capture Kryvyi Rih.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Russian/Chechen forces have pushed into the central part of Mariupol as intense fighting has broken out overnight. Russian forces have apparently stopped an Ukraine assault to relieve the city and Ukraine military officials admit there is no military solution to the siege.
More deliberate Russian attacks on buildings sheltering civilians, with hundreds more potentially buried and killed. There are now unconfirmed reports from Mariupol of the Russian army forcibly moving thousands of Mariupol residents to Russia. The civilians were allegedly taken to camps where Russians checked their phones and documents and then forcibly moved some of them to remote cities in Russia.
OBSERVATION - Russian actions are going well beyond war crimes levels in Mariupol. Sadly those directing the bombing on civilians and forced displacement will never come to trial. Mariupol will not be able to hold out much longer and the presence of Chechen thugs will make live for the survivors a literal hell.

Crimea Front -
Ukraine counter offensive towards Kherson and resistance to the north appears to have stopped a Russian offensive towards Kryvyi Rih, I didn’t include the objective city in yesterday’s post as the situation wasn’t totally clear to me yesterday. The move on Kryvyi Rih is important to Russia as a way to isolate Zaporizhiya and Dnipro from the west. Given the Ukraine counter offensive pushing on Kherson, it is unlikely that he Russian force will have adequate numbers to surround or take Kryvyi Rih. In fact, the Russian force is facing being cut off from resupply.

Russian assault on Odessa seems to be put on the back burner given the personnel/equipment losses as well as losing key terrain.
Russian naval vessels are sporadically attacking the Odessa area, with reports that they are attempting to use anti-ship missiles to target land targets.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -

Ukrainian counter offensives gaining success on the Crimea front - essentially shutting down a ground encirclement of Odessa and thwarting an amphibious operation. Russian forces will attempt to seal off key cities and then rubble them.

The winter thaw has created muddy off road conditions. However, the real mud season hasn’t really hit yet, spring rains will make things ever worse. Russia is running out of time to exploit limited off road conditions as they will get worse over the next couple months.

IMHO the introduction to hypersonic missiles will have little impact on the tactical situation. Russia has announced they fired more of them overnight. Use of this modified standoff missile - expensive and few - suggests continued fear of Moscow to fly over Ukraine proper. Aircraft losses have bit Russia hard and the RuAF is reluctant to support ground operations.

Barring a significant event to free up Russian ground forces to maneuver against Ukraine defenders, I see Russian forces being forced into a more defensive posture , making them vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks. They will have to pull more combat forces away from the front to protect logistics convoys, further reducing effectiveness.

Air attacks will continue with likely greater intensity, relying on cruse missiles to target residential areas of major cities like Kyiv, Mariupol, Khariv, etc. Russian close air support will continue to suffer at the hands of the abundant, shoulder fired SAMs that take several jets out every day as well as numerous helicopters.

The most serious concern is if Russia decides to directly attack western supply operations. Rhetoric from Moscow increasingly suggests that Russia may attack NATO countries supplying arms and munitions.

___________________________________

Belarus -

11 employees of the Belarusian embassy left Ukraine. The last employee crossed the border yesterday

Weakly confirmed reports of Belarusian partisans sabotaging signals, switches and other equipment to disrupt the delivery of #Russia|n military hardware by rail to the borders of Ukraine.
______________________________________

Poland -

Poland has proposed the EU enforce a total ban on trade with Russia

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Europe / NATO General -

The British Government has announced that they will Not Normalize Relations with the Russian Government after the Russo-Ukrainian War if President Putin is still in Power even if it he is placed into a Lower Position in Government,

The first units deploying the Patriot air defense system have started arriving from NATO partner countries in Slovakia and the deployment will continue in the coming days, Slovak Defence Minister Jaroslav Nad said on Facebook on Sunday.
The system will be operated by German and Dutch troops and will initially be deployed at the Sliac airport in central Slovakia to help reinforce defense of NATO’s eastern flank.
NOTE - This frees up S300s to go to Ukraine.

____________________________________


201 posted on 03/20/2022 7:15:06 AM PDT by Godzilla (Never give up, never surrender . . . . . .)
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