Replies

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Globalism / Great Reset -

Rumbling around in the tinfoil hat realm (though like wuhan rumblings, many did come true) are discussions on how the GGR crowd is going to use the global economic shock waves from the Ukraine war to force its economic agenda. A concerning line of discussion is the growing threat of global food shortages due to the war, lack of fertilizers/chemicals and weather conditions. The axiom of he who controls the food, controls the world” is in play.
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Wuhan virus -

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has removed tens of thousands of deaths linked to COVID-19, including nearly a quarter of deaths it had listed in those under 18 years old.
The health agency quietly made the change on its data tracker website on March 15.

A New Zealand court has defended the rights of Christians to refuse to receive an abortion-tainted COVID shot on the grounds that it constitutes a violation of their conscience, acknowledging that the objection to abortion is “grounded in a core principle” of Christianity.
The High Court of New Zealand ruled on February 25 that a government mandate ordering police officers and New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) personnel to receive a COVID jab in order to carry out work was an “unlawful” impediment on officers’ “free and democratic” rights.
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Biden / Harris watch -

More RUMINT that biden/harris handlers are trying to figure out how to dump them. biden has become a boat anchor with 60% unfavorable ratings. harris is a dumpster fire, lowering the collective IQ where ever she gets sent.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

Antifa in Seattle called for violence at an upcoming conservative “March for Freedom” rally on March 26. They view it as an opportunity for revenge. Some of the antifa flyers call for a shooting.

The Florida cell of violent antifa group, the Youth Liberation Front, has put out a call to action in the state to oppose the anti-child grooming bill. The YLF is encouraging vandalism & “anything else.” The group called for & carried out serious violence during the 2020 riots.

OBSERVATION - This part of a growing trend of advocating violence I’ve noticed. Seems the time of relative dormancy is ending and spurred on with the impending elections they are going to come out of their holes and start attacking people and breaking things. Call for lethal violence is very concerning.
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China -

biden didn’t sway Xi in regards to Ukraine/Russia.

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North Korea -

JCS has stated that North Korea fired four rockets into the Yellow Sea from MLRS systems in the South Pyongan Province.
SK’s National Security Council held an emergency meeting. The reason for such activity is unknown.
OBSERVATION - SK’s new govt leadership said they would be more confrontative of NK, this meeting may be the start of a response to the ongoing NK missile tests.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Ukraine still stands after entering the 4th week of war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Russian assaults across the board have all stalled out.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 100% of the combat force Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, It is becoming more and more apparent Russia has been scrambling to get more combat forces into theater and support those already committed.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Putin continues to reinforce his control of domestic media, attempting to obscure high casualties amid fierce resistance encountered in his invasion of Ukraine, according to a British Defense Ministry intelligence estimate.

Russian propaganda and the hypersonic missile -
As I noted yesterday, the missile is a modified Iskander-M - not a grand wonder weapon. However, OSINT analysts on the net picked apart Moscow’s target claims in a spectacular way. Russia released a video of the missile strike allegedly taken by an Orban 10 drone near Ivano-Frankiivsk in western Ukraine. So far the story holds as there is a military facility in the general area. However, as analysts looked closer, red flags were raised. First there was no evidence of a warehouse in the video, it appeared to be an open field near a farm. Second, the Orban 10 drone taking the picture doesn’t have the range or image quality to monitor a far western Ukraine target. Satellite photos were reviewed of the alleged target area and nothing matching the released image matched. Then the image was geo matched and it turns out to actually a farm in far Eastern Ukraine. Russia probably did fire the missile, its true target is yet to be confirmed.

More propaganda, trying to set up a false flag event? Russian Ministry of defense accuse Ukraine: in preparations of attack on western diplomats in L’viv, in planting explosives at cylinders with ammonium and chlorine in Sumy, deploying cylinders with chemicals to school in Kotlarovo village of Mykolaiv region
OBSERVATION - Russia has been trying to raise the threat of an Ukrainan NBC event the past couple of weeks. Many believe to justify their own NBC attack to break the current stalemate.

Russia still trying to reinforce the war effort -
- Putin transfers troops from Far East to Belarus. The troops are being moved from Vladivostok and Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky
- Footage of military equipment being loaded onto trains in Abkhazia In NE Georgia published.

Economic Impacts -
- The Australian government has imposed a ban on exports of aluminum, aluminum ores, and bauxite to Russia said Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 29th show a warming trend into the 50’s . Rain is forecast in the upcoming week. Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions,.

RUNINT -
Ukraine sees a high risk of an attack launched from Belarus on the Volyn region, which lies to the north of the western city of Lviv. It was not immediately clear whether Ukraine saw the threat of an attack on Volyn from Russian forces or the Belarusian military.
Great number of ‘reports’ out there of demoralized Russian troops, from intercepted radio comms as well as POWs. Reports even that the will shoot themselves to avoid combat. Likely a large part of this is Ukraine propaganda, but there may be some fire within this smoke.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

The British defense ministry said the Ukrainian Air Force and air defense forces are “continuing to effectively defend Ukrainian airspace.”
“Russia has failed to gain control of the air and is largely relying on stand-off weapons launched from the relative safety of Russian airspace to strike targets within Ukraine” With that said, air raid sirens sounded across Ukrainian cities on Sunday and Russia’s defense ministry said cruise missiles were launched from ships in the Black Sea and Caspian Sea, as well as hypersonic missiles from Crimean airspace.
ALSO - there are indicators that Russian air sorties have been declining since the first of March. Folks are looking see if weather conditions are to blame, but initially, it should not have been an impediment.

Russian naval activity - Four vessels shelled Mariupol yesterday. Russia is apparently now using the P-800 Oniks supersonic anti-ship missile against ground targets.
A 6th general officer taken down!. Commander’s deputy for military-political work of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet Andrey Paliy was taken down this week. Not totally sure but i think this may be an equivalent to fleet’s political commissar?

Russian ground forces remain essentially stalled and combat ineffective on all fronts. The Crimea front has suffered some severe set backs, see below. Ukrainian counter attacks have been largely successful inflicting more Russian personnel and equipment losses and forcing Russians to pull back in many sectors. US and UK intelligence sources note that Ukrainian command and control is effectively coordinating combat operations across the country.

Losses of 6 Russian generals - as well as senior commanders of combat regiments and battalions - has been unprecedented. This has a definite impact on Russian planning and combat operations as lesser ‘qualified’ leaders have to move up to fill the losses.

Kyiv front -
Russian forces completely stalled and facing counter attacks by Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian forces claim that they have constructed two defensive rings around Kyiv and are preparing to build a third.
Continued rumors that Russia is still preparing for a new push on Kyiv are floating around. Evidence on the ground is that with the pause in the Russian offensive, attack axes towards Kyiv will be extremely difficult to force and Ukraine forces well dug in. Bottom line is that Russia in this and combined with other fronts (Northern and Northeastern) never had sufficient forces to accomplish the encirclement of Kyiv, let alone capture it. Seems Russia is trying to push close enough to start using its artillery to bombard the city in a war of attrition.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Russian forces are redirecting their efforts to encircle Chernihiv and are continuing to hammer the city with a lot of artillery and bombs. However, in doing so Russian forces continue to take heavy casualties. Ukrainian forces continue to hold Russian forces away from advancing towards Kyiv.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Continued Russian efforts to isolate Sumy and Khariv, but sustaining heavy casualties in doing so. Overnight, both cities faced more intense bombing and artillery attacks on its residential areas of the cities proper as well as surrounding communities. An offensive pushing south still appears to have been stopped at Izium although latest reports are the situation is still fluid. The apparent goal of this move was to try to cut off Ukraine forces fighting against the separatists in the Dombass region. This would correspond to a similar effort out of the Crimea front to capture Kryvyi Rih.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Russian/Chechen forces have pushed into the central part of Mariupol as intense fighting has broken out overnight. Russian forces have apparently stopped an Ukraine assault to relieve the city and Ukraine military officials admit there is no military solution to the siege.
More deliberate Russian attacks on buildings sheltering civilians, with hundreds more potentially buried and killed. There are now unconfirmed reports from Mariupol of the Russian army forcibly moving thousands of Mariupol residents to Russia. The civilians were allegedly taken to camps where Russians checked their phones and documents and then forcibly moved some of them to remote cities in Russia.
OBSERVATION - Russian actions are going well beyond war crimes levels in Mariupol. Sadly those directing the bombing on civilians and forced displacement will never come to trial. Mariupol will not be able to hold out much longer and the presence of Chechen thugs will make live for the survivors a literal hell.

Crimea Front -
Ukraine counter offensive towards Kherson and resistance to the north appears to have stopped a Russian offensive towards Kryvyi Rih, I didn’t include the objective city in yesterday’s post as the situation wasn’t totally clear to me yesterday. The move on Kryvyi Rih is important to Russia as a way to isolate Zaporizhiya and Dnipro from the west. Given the Ukraine counter offensive pushing on Kherson, it is unlikely that he Russian force will have adequate numbers to surround or take Kryvyi Rih. In fact, the Russian force is facing being cut off from resupply.

Russian assault on Odessa seems to be put on the back burner given the personnel/equipment losses as well as losing key terrain.
Russian naval vessels are sporadically attacking the Odessa area, with reports that they are attempting to use anti-ship missiles to target land targets.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -

Ukrainian counter offensives gaining success on the Crimea front - essentially shutting down a ground encirclement of Odessa and thwarting an amphibious operation. Russian forces will attempt to seal off key cities and then rubble them.

The winter thaw has created muddy off road conditions. However, the real mud season hasn’t really hit yet, spring rains will make things ever worse. Russia is running out of time to exploit limited off road conditions as they will get worse over the next couple months.

IMHO the introduction to hypersonic missiles will have little impact on the tactical situation. Russia has announced they fired more of them overnight. Use of this modified standoff missile - expensive and few - suggests continued fear of Moscow to fly over Ukraine proper. Aircraft losses have bit Russia hard and the RuAF is reluctant to support ground operations.

Barring a significant event to free up Russian ground forces to maneuver against Ukraine defenders, I see Russian forces being forced into a more defensive posture , making them vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks. They will have to pull more combat forces away from the front to protect logistics convoys, further reducing effectiveness.

Air attacks will continue with likely greater intensity, relying on cruse missiles to target residential areas of major cities like Kyiv, Mariupol, Khariv, etc. Russian close air support will continue to suffer at the hands of the abundant, shoulder fired SAMs that take several jets out every day as well as numerous helicopters.

The most serious concern is if Russia decides to directly attack western supply operations. Rhetoric from Moscow increasingly suggests that Russia may attack NATO countries supplying arms and munitions.

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Belarus -

11 employees of the Belarusian embassy left Ukraine. The last employee crossed the border yesterday

Weakly confirmed reports of Belarusian partisans sabotaging signals, switches and other equipment to disrupt the delivery of #Russia|n military hardware by rail to the borders of Ukraine.
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Poland -

Poland has proposed the EU enforce a total ban on trade with Russia

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Europe / NATO General -

The British Government has announced that they will Not Normalize Relations with the Russian Government after the Russo-Ukrainian War if President Putin is still in Power even if it he is placed into a Lower Position in Government,

The first units deploying the Patriot air defense system have started arriving from NATO partner countries in Slovakia and the deployment will continue in the coming days, Slovak Defence Minister Jaroslav Nad said on Facebook on Sunday.
The system will be operated by German and Dutch troops and will initially be deployed at the Sliac airport in central Slovakia to help reinforce defense of NATO’s eastern flank.
NOTE - This frees up S300s to go to Ukraine.

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Wuhan virus -

Preliminary data from the federal Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS) database for just the first two months of 2022 suggests an alarming spike in heart problems possibly stemming from the COVID-19 vaccines.
On March 11, The Blaze senior editor Daniel Horowitz highlighted the fact that 11,289 cases of pericarditis/myocarditis after COVID vaccination were reported to VAERS between January 1 and February 25 of this year, which is already 47% of the 24,177 reports for the same submitted in all of 2021.

The nation is preparing to celebrate what has become a beloved annual holiday: Two Weeks To Slow The Spread Day, to be held in March every year. (BB)
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Economy -

The Biden administration is finally moving forward with re-starting the leasing of federal land for oil and gas drilling. The Interior Department made the announcement after a federal appeals court ruled in favor of the administration last week. The “social cost of carbon” value is factored in measuring the cost of climate change in the drilling process. The court ruled that the administration can use a higher calculation value of per ton of greenhouse gases emitted in the federal decision–making process.
OBSERVATION - It will be month, even years before a lot of this oil reaches the gas pumps.

On March 14, with the recent energy price spike reaching crisis levels, Biden gave a speech to a DNC fundraiser in Washington where he doubled down on his fossil-fuel-suppression promises.
“Imagine where we’d be right now if, in fact, Europe was in fact energy- free of fossil fuels and was — we were in a situation where — (coughs) — excuse me — where — where we — it was all renewables. It’d be a different world. And — and so, we have to get off the dependency on fossil fuels . . . . I mean, literally, not figuratively — meaning both here [U.S.] and there [Europe]. And the dependence of Europe on fossil fuels is — way exceeds any dependence we have. And so, it’s not an immediate solution to the crisis, but it’s all about the future if we were to change the fossil fuel dependency.”

The Green Markets North American Fertilizer Index, already high, jumped 16% last Friday. Urea, a major fertilizer ingredient, went up 22%. Potash, another major ingredient (Russia is the top producer), increased 34% in Brazil, the world’s leading fertilizer importer. The price for standard “starter fertilizer” 10-34-0 is up 49% from a year ago and likely to go much higher.
Bloomberg analyst Alexis Maxwell calls it “a slow-moving disaster.”
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Invasion of Illegals -

Yuma Sector Border Patrol agents apprehended a group of 100 migrants who illegally crossed the border earlier this week. The migrants came to the U.S. from ten different countries. So far this year, Yuma Sector agents apprehended nearly 120,000 migrants. Agents apprehended 20,329 of those just in February, the latest month for which statistics are available from CBP officials.
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Biden / Harris watch -

Hunter Biden laptop coverup scandal has suddenly gained traction among journalists that just a couple years ago called it a fake Russian planted story. Now liberal flagship NYT is reporting on a growing federal investigation into Hunter’s finances. Some are suggesting that this sudden ‘interest’ into Hunter may well turn as a means to force FJB to step down. Remember, these are democrats making this call.

Biden will reportedly Meet with Polish President Duda in the Capital of Warsaw on Friday after his meetings this week with NATO, The European Union, and The Group of Seven in addition to other Regional Partners, the Subject of these Meetings will be Ukraine
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POLITICAL FRONT -

Ketanji Brown Jackson (KBJ) faces senate hearings today. Her primary qualification is she’s a black woman.

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North Korea -

North Korea slams Australia, Japan for ‘extremely dangerous’ military buildup, especially sub capabilities

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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Ukraine still stands now entering the 4th week of war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Could be seeing the start of Russia trying to switch the momentum via a series of attacks.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 100% of the combat force Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, It is becoming more and more apparent Russia has been scrambling to get more combat forces into theater and support those already committed.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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More propaganda, trying to set up a false flag event? Russian Ministry of defense accuse Ukraine: in preparations of attack on western diplomats in L’viv, in planting explosives at cylinders with ammonium and chlorine in Sumy, deploying cylinders with chemicals to school in Kotlarovo village of Mykolaiv region
OBSERVATION - See discussion under Ukraine - North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) Russian artillery did strike the Sumy facility and release ammonia.

Russia tells U.S. ambassador that ties on verge of being severed - Reuters

Russia still trying to reinforce the war effort -
With troops coming from as far as Georgian breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the Russian forces may have scrounged up to 40 battalion tactical groups.
OBSERVATION - The combat readiness of these forces is questionable and there will still be a delay before they can enter battle.
ALSO OF NOTE - Withdrawal of forces from these contested regions may encourage Georgia to try to retake them.

Economic Impacts -
- All 4 major international oilfield servicing firms have now left Russia: Halliburton, Schlumberger, Baker Hughes and Weatherford International. Russia will struggle with exploration and servicing of fields without them.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 29th show a warming trend into the 50’s . Rain is forecast in the upcoming week. Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions,.

RUNINT -
Partially confirmed - There are reports a combined detachment of 6th Guards Lvov Tank Regiment (from 90th Tank Division) has been destroyed & the commander, Col. A. Zakharov, is KIA.
331st Airborne VDV Regiment has apparently lost either a BTG or itself been annihilated, depending on the source. Among the confirmed KIA is the colonel, the regiment’s deputy commander, at least one battalion major & 2 lieutenants.
OBSERVATION - I’ve haven’t spent much time on units being lost, but these reports show how hard the russian forces have been hit. Some estimate that as many as 40 BTG out of an approximately 120 they started with have been taken out action.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Evidence has built up that Belarus may be ready to enter the war. Large convoys of Belarusian military vehicles have been observed heading for Brest near the Polish border over the past week. The equipment is marked with an identification mark - a red square. Videos capture unloading of a train with equipment in Luninets (Brest region). All remaining Belorussian diplomatic staff have left Ukraine and soldiers began wearing red armbands. As a result, General Staff of the Ukrainian army believe a Belarusian offensive in the Volyn region in north-western Ukraine. An attack is expected in the next two days. “The risk is assessed as high”

ANALYSIS - An assault on this axis toward Lviv makes sense as it is developing into a staging area for foreign forces fighting for Ukraine, back up government and transfer of arms and munitions to the fight in the east. So far, Russia’s influence in in western Ukraine has been limited to cruse and ballistic missiles. Boots on the ground could pose a greater threat and divert men and equipment from the east. Combat effectiveness of Belarusian forces is highly questionable, being assessed by the west as one of the poorest trained and equipped of eastern European armies. I see very little chance of significant success of such an attack by Belarusian forces but freezing some Ukraine assets and forcing them to look rearward as Russia steps up attacks in the east may be the goal.

Russia has sharpened its intelligence teeth -
Several incidents, cumulating in the missile strike of a shopping mall in Lviv overnight show that Russia intelligence has finally stepped up and is providing actionable targeting data. Earlier strikes over the past few days include areas training and integrating foreign fighters - suspected cell phone tap. The Lviv strike brought initial questions of why target a shopping mall, until imagery came out overnight as well showing Ukraine military vehicles parked within the building targeted (imagery only a few days old). So far, its been Ukraine winning the intelligence battle, but recent strikes show that OPSEC and SIGSEC cannot get lax.

Overnight things on the ground got rough for Ukraine as Russians forces have made gains on several fronts, see specifics below.

Kyiv front -
Russia has managed push close enough to start using its artillery to bombard the city in a war of attrition. Cruse missiles struck portions of the town overnight. Flooded terrain in the vicinity of Irpin have rendered about half of the front unnavigable.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Russian forces appear to have partially encircled Chernihiv and are continuing to hammer the city with a lot of artillery and bombs. Russian forces also appear to be trying to bypass Chernihiv to push towards Kyiv.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Continued Russian efforts to isolate Sumy and Khariv, but sustaining heavy casualties in doing so. Overnight the mayor or Sumy reported that an ammonia tank in an industrial area on the northern edge of was damaged by Russian artillery fire and has created a hazard zone about 5km in diameter. Wind currently is away from the city. Russia propaganda had been claiming over the past several days that Ukraine was going to launch its own chemical attack from this very same facility.
Russian forces are pressing an attack northward from Okhtyrka towards Lebedyn, a move that could isolate Sumy.
Also increased Russian attacks southwards towards the northern Dombass region with a lot of air support (first apparent coordinated ground support). Appears to be attempting to join up with a parallel push northward out of Dombass.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Things have become desperate in Mariupol with intense street fighting ongoing. Some are beginning to liken it to Stalingrad.
Russia’s Defense Ministry says Ukraine had until 5am on March 21 to surrender the besieged city of Mariupol, adding it’ll let residents and troops who lay down arms leave. Anyone left behind “with the bandits” will “face a military tribunal.” via RIA
Ukraine rejected Russia’s demand to surrender Mariupol
Russia is being accused of forcing refugees to go into Russia and are” housing” them in what Ukrainian (propaganda) call ‘concentration camps). Russia has made a precedent of concentrating civilians in a similar manner in both Chechnya and Syria.
Observers/analysts see a deliberate Russian brutality towards Mariupol on two points. 1) Mariupol resisted separatists in 2014 and Russia wants to punish them for that and 2) surrender of the city could free up as many as 3 BTGs to be redirected in a northward assault out of Dombass into the heart of eastern Ukraine defenses.
Russian attacks have been supported by naval gunfire.

Increased attacks northward out of Dombass region towards Lysychansk in a potential effort to link up with southward movements from the northern front.

Russian officials confirmed that the Deputy Commander of the Black Sea Fleet for military-political affairs, Captain of the 1st Rank Andrei Paly (born and raised in Kyiv) was killed in Mariupol.

OBSERVATION - Russian actions are going well beyond war crimes levels in Mariupol. Sadly those directing the bombing on civilians and forced displacement will never come to trial. Mariupol will not be able to hold out much longer and the presence of Chechen thugs will make life for the survivors a literal hell.

Crimea Front -
Russian offensive towards Kryvyi Rih still being contested by Ukraine forces.
Ukraine forces continue their offensive towards Kherson. Civilian casualties reported after Russian troops opened fire on protest in Kherson.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -

Overnight actions indicate Russia is finally trying to restore the initiative by conducting offensive actions in several fronts. I am concerned about attacks in four areas.
- First being Russian bypassing and tentatively surrounding Chernihiv. Ukrainian forces in this area have been successful in taking/keeping pressure off of Kyiv.
- Second area is the area between North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) and the Dombass Front. This region is logistically far from Ukraine resupply and likely has low stocks of ATGMs and ADA MANPAD systems, making Russian attacks more of a combined arms action than seen elsewhere so far. Attacks here may be intended to join up with a push being made to Kryvyi Rih and beyond.
- Third is the battle for Mariupol. This is developing into a Stalingrad stand that has the potential to badly maul Russian forces and kill thousands of civilians. The fight will go on as long as Ukraine has the energy and stamina. I can’t see the city holding out for much longer, but then they’ve been holding out for several weeks. Russian / chechen brutality will be at the highest here and Ukraine will respond with a no holds barred, take no prisoners. As I noted above, some thing that the surrender of Mariupol could free up as many as 3 BTGs. This would stress Ukraine forces holding the line.
- Fourth and finally, the Russia push on Kryvyi Rih. A successful push in this direction could be the start of a greater encirclement of Ukraine forces facing the Dombass front.

The overall key to any Russian success in these areas are Russian planning and logistics. The first three appear to have secured their logistic lines better than other areas. The Kryvyi Rih push faces getting cut off by Ukraine counter attack toward Kherson. Do these russian forces have the leadership and coordination to pull this out? That remains to be seen, but if they’ve been restocked, they could push about 90 miles before logistics issues strike again.

WILDCARD - Belarus invasion in far west Ukraine.

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Belarus -

See discussion under Ukraine
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Europe / NATO General -

The EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell says that what is happening in Mariupol is a “massive war crime”.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told NBC’s “Meet the Press” that the meeting in Brussels is a show of unity intended to send a message to Putin:
“We haven’t yet decided on the exact format of that summit. It will take place on Thursday...with President Biden and all the other leaders,” Stoltenberg said. “And I think the meeting of all heads of state and government in NATO will provide us yet another platform to demonstrate our unity, our support to Ukraine, but also our readiness to protect and defend all NATO allies.

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Israel -

Israeli defense sources report several intel warnings that suggest Iran intends to carry out attacks via air, at sea & on land.
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Saudi Arabia -

The Biden administration has transferred a significant number of Patriot antimissile interceptors to Saudi Arabia, fulfilling an urgent request from the kingdom that has become a point of contention in relations between Washington and Riyadh, according to reports.
Senior US officials told reporters on Sunday that the weapons systems were sent to Saudi Arabia in recent weeks, which the kingdom had been requesting since late last year to fend off missile and drone attacks by Yemen’s Houthi group

The Saudi-led coalition said early on Sunday that Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi group launched missile and drone strikes on energy and water desalination facilities in the kingdom that caused some material damage but no deaths.

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Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -

Taliban IEA (Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan) government is forming an army. This force won’t be as large as the former IRA (Islamic Republic of Afghanistan) force, which had a paper strength of 300,000 and was subsidized by the Americans.

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