Replies

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Wuhan virus -

Allegedly “fully-vaccinated” and “boosted” Barack Obama has tested positive for Covid-19 and is showing symptoms.
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Economy -

Russia may halt wheat, corn, rye and barley exports on March 15th.
OBSERVATION - Combined with loss of grain exports from Ukraine, food prices across the globe will be hit hard. Middle east countries fed by Russia will be facing famine conditions absent any other support. Same for parts of Africa.
Europe will feel the pinch losing both sources of grain.
Meanwhile, China will continue its effort to corner grain markets by bidding higher than other countries.
US grain production is going to be impacted by continued drought conditions.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

Mayorkas released new rules on “extremism”. The new guidelines on extremist behavior include those who question the fraud in the 2020 election and anyone who question the regime’s talking points on COVID and its treatments including the mandates.
OBSERVATION - This is a continuation of the trend that started under 0bama to target Red America under weaponed Federal guidelines. This cocks the gun that biden could use in conjunction with the Patriot Act.

Amazon relocating 1,800 employees out of downtown Seattle due to spiking crime
Over the past few years, the area has seen increased open air drug use, fencing of stolen goods, shootings, carjackings and other violent crimes.
OBSERVATION - BLM/Antifa supported crime and violence continues to gut Seattle.

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China -

China warned about supporting Russia economically and militarily

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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands after over two weeks This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Some Russian forces, particularly in the southern area of Ukraine, appear to be getting their act together, but are still facing vicious defense measures. However, efforts to surround Kyiv are still stalled to progressing slowly.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 100% of the combat force Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, There are no more reserves in theater for Russian forces to draw upon.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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RUMINT -
Russia has asked China for military aid to support its invasion of Ukraine, according to US officials. US officials told the Financial Times that it is suspected Russia may be running out of weaponry as the war enters its third week.
OBSERVATION - If Russia has requested military aid, such aid will take weeks to reach the Ukraine theatre in any substantial numbers.

Economic Impacts -
- Russian prosecutors have issued warnings to Western companies in Russia, including McDonald’s and IBM, threatening to arrest corporate leaders there who criticize the government or to seize assets of companies that withdraw from the country. (WSJ)
- Russia said on Sunday that it was counting on China to help it withstand the blow to its economy from sanctions, but the US has warned Beijing not to provide that support. The Russian finance minister, Anton Siluanov, said Moscow was unable to access $300bn of its $640bn in gold and foreign exchange reserves, but still held part of its reserves in the Chinese currency, the yuan.
- A Russian default on its debts after western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine is no longer “improbable”, but would not trigger a global financial crisis, the head of the International Monetary Fund said on Sunday.

Russia calling for fighters from Central Africa as well.

The Kremlin said on Monday that Russian forces could take full control of major Ukrainian cities and it had sufficient military clout to fulfil all of its aims in Ukraine without any help from China.
OBSERVATION - Yeh, right.
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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 20th show temperatures in the mid 30’s . Conditions maintain for muddy off road conditions, but no forecast for any rain which would basically put a nail into any maneuvering off road.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Ukraine’s armed forces are launching counter-attacks against Russian troops in Ukraine’s southern Mykolaiv region and eastern Kharkiv region.
Russian thrusts towards Kyiv were repulsed yesterday after two attempts river crossings NE of the city.

Kyiv front -
Intense bombardment of residential areas of surrounding towns continue to create excessive civilian causalities. Towns like Irpin (west of Kyiv) have been turned largely to rubble.
Artillery struck central Kyiv for the first time in over a week, hitting an apartment complex. Russian advances to the NE and NW repulsed City reportedly has stockpiled at least 2 weeks of food and essentials if cut off by Russian forces. However, Russia still is stymied in surrounding the city.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Little change. Threat of Russian advance to Kyiv from this front has been stalled for many days. Reasons largely being a combination of lack of fuel / logistics and Ukraine nailing road bound Russian combat units at key choke points.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Two extremely extended Russian attack axes from Konotop and Sumy still in play. Ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks in NE Ukraine are still forcing Russia to redeploy forces away from offensive operations toward Kyiv to consolidate its long line of communication.

Continues Russian bombing/artillery attacks have rubbled the historic center of Khariv. Defenders continue to hold Russian forces at bay and infliction heavy losses.
A push from the southern most portion southward has reached the town Izium. Again, road bound assault that is now endanger of stalling as POL convoys get exposed to Ukraine raids.
Fighting around Khariv has forced some Russian forces back, but the town is a shell of its self from all the indiscriminate bombing.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
No significant changes from Mar 5 positions. Conditions in Mariupol continue to be desperate with bombing killing hundreds of civilians. Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of Russia’s Chechnya region and an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, said on Sunday that he had travelled into Ukraine to meet Chechen troops attacking Kyiv. Chechen units appear to be less than 20km east of Mariupol in the village of Bezimenne, Ukraine. - separatist held territory
OBSERVATION - Chechen forces Russia has recruited are known to be vicious and brutal. Rumors are that they are seeking to capture children to hold hostage. But apart from that terror aspect, they haven’t turned the war effort out of the separatist held zone.
Ukraine reports more success attacking Russian and separatist units allegedly inflicting severe casualties. Unconfirmed but fighting to relieve Mariupol has been fierce the past several days.

Crimea Front -
Three major (predominately road bound) pushes being 1) North - northwest along a Mykolaiv to Voznesensk axis. 2) Northward towards Zaporizhzhia and 3) eastward towards Mariupol. All three are still stalled. Combat continues in Mykolaiv but has reduced from yesterday.

Watch continues on the amphibious force still holding off the west coast of Crimea.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -
Peace talks resume today.

I can only say that there will be more of the same. Intense, bombing/artillery strikes on civilian residential areas to try to break the will of the nation. Russian ground forces suffering from lack of logistics, who’s supply chain is getting hit by bypassed Ukraine forces. Russia will attempt to break the stalemate around Kyiv but I think their forces are logistically hamstrung as well has suffering from heavy casualties.
I also expect more bombing by RUAF, dangerous to pilots exposed to continued Ukraine ADA threats, but necessary to bomb civilian targets sufficiently.
Also expect Ru heavy bombers to lob more cruse missiles at major cities and potentially targets in W Ukraine they think maybe used to funnel replacement munitions to Uk forces.

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Europe / NATO General -

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg appears to have stated yesterday that if any Harm comes to NATO Convoy’s that will be delivering Supplies to Ukraine, that it will be considered a Violation of Article 5 of the NATO Charter and the Alliance will React.

NATO joint exercises in Norway begins tomorrow. Cold Response 22 is a long-planned, defensive exercise bringing together thousands of troops from NATO Allies and partners, testing their ability to work together in cold weather conditions across Norway – on land, in the air and at sea

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Iran -

The United States condemned on Sunday an Iranian attack on Iraq’s northern city of Erbil and backs Baghdad and governments across the region in the face of threats from Tehran, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said.

Iran claims it attacked a Mosad training facility in Erbil.
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Iraq -

See Iran above re: Erbil

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Syria -

Russian jets returned to the skies over Idlib after a notable absence. Doing normal combat patrols.

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Wuhan virus -

The effectiveness of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine against Omicron “declined rapidly for children, particularly those 5-11 years,” according to a study released February 28.
The authors of the study still recommended the vaccine for that age group, stating it was protective against severe disease. They also proposed the recommended dose for 5- to 11-year-olds was too small, suggesting a higher dose might solve the problem.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.02.25.22271454v1.full.pdf
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Economy -

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT -

The View has called for Tucker and Tulsi Gabbard to be investigated by DOJ for opposing biden policy on Putin and even go as far as recommending prison.
NO First Amendment for others.
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Domestic Terror -

Homeland Security Today reported in late February that ISIS had posted a video online urging Muslims in the United States to join “ISIS North America.” “To those who want to try,” the video said, “to my brothers following in the path of the Khilafa [caliphate] in America I urge you to come join our group. This new group will operate in the United States to surprise the murtad [apostates, ex-Muslims] in their own lands. The name of this group will be named ISIS-NA (Islamic State of Iraq & Sham [the Levant] – North America).”
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China -

Approximately 51 million now in lockdown including the port of Shenzhen - one of the world’s busiest container post is now also locked down, expect a fresh round of cascading chaos in Transpacific supply chains, just in time to join the snarled Transatlantic supply chains as the Ukraine war cripples all global seaborne traffic.

The Hang Seng tech index has plunged 61% from its peak last year. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index of U.S.-traded stocks has fared even worse, down 68%, and with another bad day or two, the peak-to-trough decline could surpass its 72% crash in the 2008 global financial crisis.

On Monday 13 Chinese PLA aircraft breached Taiwan’s air defense identification zone - something which at this point has long been a weekly - and almost daily - occurrence.

China has struck a deal with the Taliban to begin mining one of the richest copper deposits in the world. Afghanistan’s other mineral assets will also be on their shopping list, and the Taliban seem all too happy to oblige.
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North Korea -

US Forces Korea says its air defence artillery brigade at the Osan airbase has intensified exercises following recent missile tests by North Korea
There is growing speculation the North could test its largest intercontinental ballistic missile as soon as this week, at full range. Impact would be in the Pacific somewhere.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands after over two weeks

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Russian assaults across the board have all stalled out.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 100% of the combat force Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, There are no more reserves in theater for Russian forces to draw upon. Additional Syrian fighters are in the process of being brought in to fight, but that will take time to move, organize and equip.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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RUMINT -
Among the assistance Russia requested of China was prepackaged, nonperishable military food kits, known in the US as “meal, ready-to-eat,” or MREs, according to two sources familiar with the matter.
OBSERVATION - China will own Russia when this is said and done. China playing Putin just like it has other countries. Extend a line of credit knowing full well the other country can’t pay it off and when they default, China comes in and takes hard assets (mines, airport, sea ports etc) is deems necessary for its benefit) and leaves the country fourth dependent on it for further aid.

Economic Impacts -
- Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a law allowing Russian airlines to keep foreign aircraft for use on domestic flights, according to state news agency TASS. Moscow had signaled last week it could take such action in response to far-reaching Western sanctions. The new law, TASS said, would allow Russian airlines to retain and operate planes rented from foreign aircraft lessors that have pulled out of the market and canceled contracts because of the sanctions. OBSERVATION - Forget about post war investing in Russia with this action.
- UK imposes more sanctions on Russia: - Adds 350 new sanctions listings - Adds 9 new listings under cyber sanctions government - Announces asset freeze and travel ban against Andrey Melnichenko, Petr Aven, Mikhail Fridman, Sergei Shoigu and Dmitry Medvedev
- Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi warns China does not want to be impacted by economic sanctions on Russia, state media says, as pressure grows on Beijing to withdraw support from Moscow. “China is not a party to the crisis, still less wants to be affected by the sanctions”

Ukraine is requesting that Russia be ordered to end its war and withdraw troops from the country. The International Court of Justice will issue a ruling on March 16.

Is time running out for Russia. Information from U.K. defense sources, suggests that after another two weeks the Russian forces may struggle to hold the ground they captured in Ukraine. They suggest that by then the equipment and personnel losses will make it hard for Russia to sustain any ground offensives or defense.
OBSERVATION - Under normal conditions and current trends this would be the common sense evaluation of the situation. Putin bet on a quick capitulation of Ukraine and was not prepared for a long haul with heavy Russian losses. Evidenced by call for Belarus, Chechen, Syrian, and Kazakistan military support (not to mention China) Not figured in to this is Putin’s mental state that he may force the conflict to continue and defeat Ukraine by attrition of civilian lives. He has committed 100% of ore preiavasion prepositioned forces and any reserves are coming in in bits and pieces.
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Ukraine -

RUNINT -

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Almost all of Russia’s assaults on Ukrainian cities remain stalled. Use of cruse and ballistic missiles has increased, targeting residential and some industrial areas.

Ukrainian air force claiming in a statement on Telegram that a Russian drone crossed into Poland before going back into Ukraine and being shot down by air defences

Kyiv front -
Intense bombardment of down town Kyiv stuck in full force last night, with the most intense round of cruse missile attacks since the start of the war. Many residential apartment complexes were hit and totally rubbled. Curfew to be imposed in Kyiv starting 8pm today and before 8am 17th March, “today is difficult and dangerous moment” - Mayor Klitchko

Reports of an attempt by Russian forces to breach the defensive line along the Irpin river north of Kyiv were thwarted by Ukraine forces.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Little change. Threat of Russian advance to Kyiv from this front has been stalled for many days. Ukrainian forces reportedly forcing Russian back in key areas of the region.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Two extremely extended Russian attack axes from Konotop and Sumy still in play but are stalled. Ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks in NE Ukraine are still forcing Russia to consolidate its long line of communication.
About 50 Russian vehicles moved southeast of Kharkiv, apparently seeking to link up with Russian forces in the south, a US official said. They appear intent on cutting off Ukrainian troops fighting in the eastern part of the country.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
No significant changes from Mar 5 positions. Conditions in Mariupol continue to be desperate with bombing killing hundreds of civilians. Russian forces abducted the mayor of Melitopol, Ukraine to Russian-occupied Luhansk, where he is being accused of “terrorism,” the Kyiv Independent reported, citing the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration.

Watch continues on the amphibious force still holding off the west coast of Crimea. However, Odessa has started radioing warnings of mined coastal waters. No word if mines are Russia or Ukraine - but IMHO Ukrainian . Could be a major reason Russia has held off trying to conduct an amphibious operation at this time.
WITH THAT SAID - New reports of 14 Russian naval vessels, including 5 landing ship, have moved from the coast of western Crimea towards the Odessa region.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -

I can only say that there will be more of the same. Intense, bombing/artillery strikes on civilian residential areas to try to break the will of the nation. These attacks look like they are going to focus on Kyiv more than other regions. Concerns continue that Putin will use NBC weapons/false flag to break the stalemate. Questions remain to see what other actions NATO will take to break the stalemate as well. It appears as long as Ukraine can get resupplied, they have the will to fight.

Russian ground forces continue to suffer from lack of logistics. This doesn’t appear to be resolving itself - freezing combat operations for over a week now.

I also expect more bombing by RUAF, dangerous to pilots exposed to continued Ukraine ADA threats, but necessary to bomb civilian targets sufficiently.
Also expect Ru heavy bombers to lob more cruse missiles at major cities and potentially targets in W Ukraine they think maybe used to funnel replacement munitions to Uk forces.

CAPTURE OF KYIV POSSIBLE? -
If one takes historical examples of siege and capture of major cities, if is virtually impossible with all of the forces Russia has committed to the fight to take Kyiv. Only a portion of the approximately 180,000 soldiers Russia has committed are actively trying to encircle Kyiv - a far too small number for that task, let along try to force the city capture. This is probably why Putin has shifted to the level the city tactic Russia has used in the past to avoid urban combat.

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Europe / NATO General -

The leaders of NATO may meet in Brussels as soon as next week for what would be an extraordinary meeting amid Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine according to several sources. A Biden trip has not been finalized, nor has the NATO leaders meeting.
RELATED ?? The are reports that the United States Government is Preparing to Implement an Extreme Sanctions Package on the Russian Federation including a Full Trade Embargo and Banning Russian Ships from Strategic International Waterways like the Panama Canal or Strait of Gibraltar.
OBSERVATION - A great deal of speculation over these items yesterday. Not sure if they are related but “extraordinary” would fit the description of a link.

The prime ministers of the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovenia are traveling to Kyiv by train on Tuesday to show support for the country on behalf of the EU, the first foreign leaders to visit the Ukrainian capital since Russia invaded last month.
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Israel -

Massive cyber attack hit Israeli government websites. Security official: Tonight’s cyber attack is the largest cyber attack carried out against Israel, and it is estimated that a country or a large organization is behind it. “Systems were restored by the end of the day.
OBSERVATION - Very little doubt Iran was behind this attack. They better hope they’ve got their data backed up.

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Lebanon -

Lebanon is on a short time-clock to avert a food crisis catastrophe. Ukraine supplies 60% of its wheat, but Lebanon has only a month’s worth of storage due to the loss of grain elevators in the mega blast last year that hit the port. It takes 7 days to import from Ukraine, but about 25 from the US.
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Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -

See China and mining above.
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