Replies

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Wuhan virus -

The effectiveness of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine against Omicron “declined rapidly for children, particularly those 5-11 years,” according to a study released February 28.
The authors of the study still recommended the vaccine for that age group, stating it was protective against severe disease. They also proposed the recommended dose for 5- to 11-year-olds was too small, suggesting a higher dose might solve the problem.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.02.25.22271454v1.full.pdf
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Economy -

Russia may halt wheat, corn, rye and barley exports on March 15th.
OBSERVATION - Combined with loss of grain exports from Ukraine, food prices across the globe will be hit hard. Middle east countries fed by Russia will be facing famine conditions absent any other support. Same for parts of Africa.
Europe will feel the pinch losing both sources of grain.
Meanwhile, China will continue its effort to corner grain markets by bidding higher than other countries.
US grain production is going to be impacted by continued drought conditions.
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CANCEL CULTURE FRONT -

The View has called for Tucker and Tulsi Gabbard to be investigated by DOJ for opposing biden policy on Putin and even go as far as recommending prison.
NO First Amendment for others.
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Domestic Terror -

Homeland Security Today reported in late February that ISIS had posted a video online urging Muslims in the United States to join “ISIS North America.” “To those who want to try,” the video said, “to my brothers following in the path of the Khilafa [caliphate] in America I urge you to come join our group. This new group will operate in the United States to surprise the murtad [apostates, ex-Muslims] in their own lands. The name of this group will be named ISIS-NA (Islamic State of Iraq & Sham [the Levant] – North America).”
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China -

Approximately 51 million now in lockdown including the port of Shenzhen - one of the world’s busiest container post is now also locked down, expect a fresh round of cascading chaos in Transpacific supply chains, just in time to join the snarled Transatlantic supply chains as the Ukraine war cripples all global seaborne traffic.

The Hang Seng tech index has plunged 61% from its peak last year. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index of U.S.-traded stocks has fared even worse, down 68%, and with another bad day or two, the peak-to-trough decline could surpass its 72% crash in the 2008 global financial crisis.

On Monday 13 Chinese PLA aircraft breached Taiwan’s air defense identification zone - something which at this point has long been a weekly - and almost daily - occurrence.

China has struck a deal with the Taliban to begin mining one of the richest copper deposits in the world. Afghanistan’s other mineral assets will also be on their shopping list, and the Taliban seem all too happy to oblige.
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North Korea -

US Forces Korea says its air defence artillery brigade at the Osan airbase has intensified exercises following recent missile tests by North Korea
There is growing speculation the North could test its largest intercontinental ballistic missile as soon as this week, at full range. Impact would be in the Pacific somewhere.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands after over two weeks

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Russian assaults across the board have all stalled out.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 100% of the combat force Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, There are no more reserves in theater for Russian forces to draw upon. Additional Syrian fighters are in the process of being brought in to fight, but that will take time to move, organize and equip.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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RUMINT -
Among the assistance Russia requested of China was prepackaged, nonperishable military food kits, known in the US as “meal, ready-to-eat,” or MREs, according to two sources familiar with the matter.
OBSERVATION - China will own Russia when this is said and done. China playing Putin just like it has other countries. Extend a line of credit knowing full well the other country can’t pay it off and when they default, China comes in and takes hard assets (mines, airport, sea ports etc) is deems necessary for its benefit) and leaves the country fourth dependent on it for further aid.

Economic Impacts -
- Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a law allowing Russian airlines to keep foreign aircraft for use on domestic flights, according to state news agency TASS. Moscow had signaled last week it could take such action in response to far-reaching Western sanctions. The new law, TASS said, would allow Russian airlines to retain and operate planes rented from foreign aircraft lessors that have pulled out of the market and canceled contracts because of the sanctions. OBSERVATION - Forget about post war investing in Russia with this action.
- UK imposes more sanctions on Russia: - Adds 350 new sanctions listings - Adds 9 new listings under cyber sanctions government - Announces asset freeze and travel ban against Andrey Melnichenko, Petr Aven, Mikhail Fridman, Sergei Shoigu and Dmitry Medvedev
- Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi warns China does not want to be impacted by economic sanctions on Russia, state media says, as pressure grows on Beijing to withdraw support from Moscow. “China is not a party to the crisis, still less wants to be affected by the sanctions”

Ukraine is requesting that Russia be ordered to end its war and withdraw troops from the country. The International Court of Justice will issue a ruling on March 16.

Is time running out for Russia. Information from U.K. defense sources, suggests that after another two weeks the Russian forces may struggle to hold the ground they captured in Ukraine. They suggest that by then the equipment and personnel losses will make it hard for Russia to sustain any ground offensives or defense.
OBSERVATION - Under normal conditions and current trends this would be the common sense evaluation of the situation. Putin bet on a quick capitulation of Ukraine and was not prepared for a long haul with heavy Russian losses. Evidenced by call for Belarus, Chechen, Syrian, and Kazakistan military support (not to mention China) Not figured in to this is Putin’s mental state that he may force the conflict to continue and defeat Ukraine by attrition of civilian lives. He has committed 100% of ore preiavasion prepositioned forces and any reserves are coming in in bits and pieces.
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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 20th show temperatures in the mid 30’s . Conditions maintain for muddy off road conditions, but no forecast for any rain which would basically put a nail into any maneuvering off road.

RUNINT -

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Almost all of Russia’s assaults on Ukrainian cities remain stalled. Use of cruse and ballistic missiles has increased, targeting residential and some industrial areas.

Ukrainian air force claiming in a statement on Telegram that a Russian drone crossed into Poland before going back into Ukraine and being shot down by air defences

Kyiv front -
Intense bombardment of down town Kyiv stuck in full force last night, with the most intense round of cruse missile attacks since the start of the war. Many residential apartment complexes were hit and totally rubbled. Curfew to be imposed in Kyiv starting 8pm today and before 8am 17th March, “today is difficult and dangerous moment” - Mayor Klitchko

Reports of an attempt by Russian forces to breach the defensive line along the Irpin river north of Kyiv were thwarted by Ukraine forces.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Little change. Threat of Russian advance to Kyiv from this front has been stalled for many days. Ukrainian forces reportedly forcing Russian back in key areas of the region.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Two extremely extended Russian attack axes from Konotop and Sumy still in play but are stalled. Ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks in NE Ukraine are still forcing Russia to consolidate its long line of communication.
About 50 Russian vehicles moved southeast of Kharkiv, apparently seeking to link up with Russian forces in the south, a US official said. They appear intent on cutting off Ukrainian troops fighting in the eastern part of the country.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
No significant changes from Mar 5 positions. Conditions in Mariupol continue to be desperate with bombing killing hundreds of civilians. Russian forces abducted the mayor of Melitopol, Ukraine to Russian-occupied Luhansk, where he is being accused of “terrorism,” the Kyiv Independent reported, citing the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration.

Crimea Front -
Three major (predominately road bound) pushes being 1) North - northwest along a Mykolaiv to Voznesensk axis. 2) Northward towards Zaporizhzhia and 3) eastward towards Mariupol. All three are still stalled. Combat continues in Mykolaiv but has reduced from yesterday. Report of increasing Ukraine counter attacks successfully forcing Russian forces back.

Watch continues on the amphibious force still holding off the west coast of Crimea. However, Odessa has started radioing warnings of mined coastal waters. No word if mines are Russia or Ukraine - but IMHO Ukrainian . Could be a major reason Russia has held off trying to conduct an amphibious operation at this time.
WITH THAT SAID - New reports of 14 Russian naval vessels, including 5 landing ship, have moved from the coast of western Crimea towards the Odessa region.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -

I can only say that there will be more of the same. Intense, bombing/artillery strikes on civilian residential areas to try to break the will of the nation. These attacks look like they are going to focus on Kyiv more than other regions. Concerns continue that Putin will use NBC weapons/false flag to break the stalemate. Questions remain to see what other actions NATO will take to break the stalemate as well. It appears as long as Ukraine can get resupplied, they have the will to fight.

Russian ground forces continue to suffer from lack of logistics. This doesn’t appear to be resolving itself - freezing combat operations for over a week now.

I also expect more bombing by RUAF, dangerous to pilots exposed to continued Ukraine ADA threats, but necessary to bomb civilian targets sufficiently.
Also expect Ru heavy bombers to lob more cruse missiles at major cities and potentially targets in W Ukraine they think maybe used to funnel replacement munitions to Uk forces.

CAPTURE OF KYIV POSSIBLE? -
If one takes historical examples of siege and capture of major cities, if is virtually impossible with all of the forces Russia has committed to the fight to take Kyiv. Only a portion of the approximately 180,000 soldiers Russia has committed are actively trying to encircle Kyiv - a far too small number for that task, let along try to force the city capture. This is probably why Putin has shifted to the level the city tactic Russia has used in the past to avoid urban combat.

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Europe / NATO General -

The leaders of NATO may meet in Brussels as soon as next week for what would be an extraordinary meeting amid Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine according to several sources. A Biden trip has not been finalized, nor has the NATO leaders meeting.
RELATED ?? The are reports that the United States Government is Preparing to Implement an Extreme Sanctions Package on the Russian Federation including a Full Trade Embargo and Banning Russian Ships from Strategic International Waterways like the Panama Canal or Strait of Gibraltar.
OBSERVATION - A great deal of speculation over these items yesterday. Not sure if they are related but “extraordinary” would fit the description of a link.

The prime ministers of the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovenia are traveling to Kyiv by train on Tuesday to show support for the country on behalf of the EU, the first foreign leaders to visit the Ukrainian capital since Russia invaded last month.
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Israel -

Massive cyber attack hit Israeli government websites. Security official: Tonight’s cyber attack is the largest cyber attack carried out against Israel, and it is estimated that a country or a large organization is behind it. “Systems were restored by the end of the day.
OBSERVATION - Very little doubt Iran was behind this attack. They better hope they’ve got their data backed up.

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Lebanon -

Lebanon is on a short time-clock to avert a food crisis catastrophe. Ukraine supplies 60% of its wheat, but Lebanon has only a month’s worth of storage due to the loss of grain elevators in the mega blast last year that hit the port. It takes 7 days to import from Ukraine, but about 25 from the US.
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Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -

See China and mining above.
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Wuhan virus -

The Senate passed a measure that would force the repeal of the federal face mask mandate for public transit passed by a 57-40 margin. biden has vowed to veto it.
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Economy -

Oil, which recently hit record highs, took a steep dip and saw some heavy losses on Tuesday, following on the heels of a Monday dip.
Among the factors contributing to the swoon: talks between Russia and Ukraine, a potential slowdown in Chinese demand for oil, and trade activity preceding a widely anticipated rate hike by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.
NOTE - Doubt we’ll see equivalent lowering of prices as the pump any time soon though.

Bankrate’s 30-year mortgage rate rose to 4.43%, up 55% under Biden.
OBSERVATION - This could signal the puncture of the housing bubble.

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Biden / Harris watch -

Biden will travel to Brussels later this month for the NATO summit

Zelensky essentially told the world that biden is not acting as the leader of the world and went over his head to appeal to the US people.
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North Korea -

NK attempted to launch an ICBM in a test last night. The missile exploded at an altitude of less than 20 km (12 miles) and debris fell in the Pyongyang area; no word on damage or injuries. Reports of a reddish brown plume from the missile indicate it was a liquid fuel rocket.

US, South Korea could resume military exercises involving long-range US bombers such as the B-52H or B-1B in the event North Korea following this ICBM test. US hasn’t deployed a long-range bomber to the Korean Peninsula since 2017.
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Japan -

Fumio Kishida, Japan’s prime minister, said that southern Kuril Islands are a sovereign part of his country, and not part of Russia, which has controlled the group of islands since 1945. Speaking in the Diet earlier this week, Kishida told lawmakers the Kuril Islands are “original territories of Japan”.
The islands have been a point of controversy between Japan and the Russia for decades. Moscow took control of the islands after World War II in 1945. In recent years, the Japanese government had refrained from referring to the islands as its “original territories” in order to avoid upsetting the Russian government.
However, following the global anti-Moscow sentiment since the invasion of Ukraine, the Japanese government has reinstated its historic claim on the silands.
“The Northern Territories belong to Japan. They are the territory on which Japan has sovereignty,” Kishida said.
In fact, on 29 February, on the second day of the Russian invasion, Japan’s foreign minister, Hideki Uyama, even went so far to say that Russia had “occupied” the southern part of the Kuril Islands, thereby violating international law.

OBSERVATION - Japan sees Russia as wounded and vulnerable on this issue, looking to exploit the current situation to reinforce its claims.

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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands after over three weeks of fighting

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Russian assaults across the board have all stalled out.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 100% of the combat force Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, It is becoming more and more apparent Russia has been scrambling to get more combat forces into theater and support those already committed.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Russia is suffering serious losses that can no longer be poo-poo’d as propaganda -
- Confirmed - Russian Army Major General Oleg Mityaev was killed in fighting yesterday. He’s a commander of the 150th motorized rifle division.
OBSERVATION - This is the 4th general killed in this conflict in a space of 20 days. - It is estimated that there were 20 generals in the forces at the start of conflict, so to lose 20% of your senior officers is unreal.
- Not independently verified but compelling based on ground conditions. Russia has lost up to 40 per cent of the units (not mission capable status - not totally destroyed) it sent into Ukraine when Moscow invaded its neighbor in February, the Ukrainian military’s general staff said on Wednesday. The troops were either completely destroyed or have lost their combat capabilities, according to the daily bulletin, which did not give concrete numbers. The information could not be verified independently.
- UK military intelligence says so many Russian troops are dying by the Ukrainian resistance that it’s likely struggling to conduct offensive operations and is seeking replacements. Russia is bringing troops from Eastern Mil District, Pacific Fleet, Syria, Armenia, and private contractors to hold ground.
- Russian units from the 4th Guards occupation base in Tskhinvali are leaving the region through the Roki tunnel and heading to fight in Ukraine. In addition to Russia’s 58th Army units, volunteers from the so-called South Ossetia are reportedly also leaving for Ukraine.

SUMMARY - People will quibble over final numbers , however, the fact that Russia appears to be desperately seeking more troops and equipment to support the fight lends credibility to the loss claims.
Time is also running out for Russia. It will take time to get these units assembled and in place - the time frame depends upon just how much these forces need equipment on arrival or show up with their stuff. Both personnel and equipment are needed as armor and other losses have been intense. This is a component of Russia’s failed logistics support - they can’t keep the current forces supplied, it is questionable how successfully they can prepare these other forces to enter battle as well.

Economic Impacts -
- Russian stock market continues to be closed.

Russia announces leaving the Council of Europe, hours before its expected expulsion. It means that Russian citizens will not be able to bring cases to the European Court of Human Rights, and the Russian government can re-introduce the death penalty.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 20th show a warming trend into the 50’s . Conditions maintain for muddy off road conditions, but no forecast for any rain which would basically put a nail into any maneuvering off road.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Over 1000 misslies (cruse and ballistic ) have been fired at Ukraine by Russia since the start of the conflict. They are being used primarily to target residents and civilian areas of cities.

Russian naval activity - See Crimea front discussion

Russian ground forces remain essentially stalled and combat ineffective with the only exception being the Crimea front with some movement on the Dombass region. Ukrainian counter attacks have been largely successful inflicting more Russian personnel and equipment losses and forcing /Russians to pull back in many sectors.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke to Congress this morning requesting further aid and support for the Ukrainian war efforts. He reiterated the request for a no fly zone over Ukraine.

Almost all of Russia’s assaults on Ukrainian cities remain stalled. Use of cruse and ballistic missiles has increased, targeting residential and some industrial areas.

Kyiv front -
Intense fighting in surrounding suburbs of Kyiv’s northwest as Russian elements have attempted to resume some degree of offensive operations. There are unconfirmed reports that Ukraine has out maneuvered some of those units and pressed them into kill zones.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Ukrainan counter attacks have stopped the Russian push on Kyiv and forced them to withdraw back to the north and towards Chernihv. This places this axis of attack out of the Kyiv picture for now and incapable to join up with the force from the NE Front’s attempt on the northeast and eastern margin of Kyiv.

The US embassy in Kyiv says Russian forces have shot and killed 10 people standing in line for bread in the Ukrainian city of Chernihiv, following the emergence of graphic footage of the aftermath earlier today.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Two extremely extended Russian attack axes from Konotop and Sumy still in play but are stalled. Ukraine success in reducing the pressure from the Northern /Front (above) has freed forces to start more intensive operations against the stalled, road bound forces from the east. More Ukraine counter attacks around Sumy and Khariv have forced Russian forces back.
Russian bombing wrath retuned to Kharkiv last night, with intensive bombing in its residential neighborhoods.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Russian/separatist forces managed to push southwestward from the vicinity of Donetsk in what appears to be an effort to cut off Ukraine forces fighting to relieve the defenders of Mariupol. Conditions in Mariupol continue to be desperate with bombing killing hundreds of civilians. In another gross violation of the rules of war - war crime acts, Russian troops seized a hospital in Mariupol and took about 500 people hostage during another assault on the southern port city late Tuesday, regional leader Pavlo Kyrylenko said.
Russians troops drove 400 people from neighboring houses into Regional Intensive Care Hospital, Kyrylenko said on the messaging app Telegram. About 100 doctors and patients also are believed to be inside, he said.
OBSERVATION - Chechen forces have been operating in the Separatist Donbass region. This kind of operation is their MO to create terror and why Russia had placed them there. These are special kinds of thugs who would make the world a better place if they were dead.

Crimea Front -
Three major (predominately road bound) pushes being 1) North - northwest along a Mykolaiv to Voznesensk axis. 2) Northward towards Zaporizhzhia and 3) eastward towards Mariupol. Only movement has been Russian advances on the northern side of the Dnieper River from the Kherson region northwest towards Kryvyi Rih.

Russian troops deployed tear gas and opened fire at protesters in Skadovs’k.

Watch continues on the amphibious force still holding off the west coast of Crimea. Yesterday, satellite images showed 14 ships of the Russian fleet sailing towards the city of Odesa, among them a 120-meter landing ship Pyotr Morgunov. Results were the Russian warships shelled the sea coast in the area of Lebedevka, Sanzheyka, Zatoka and Belenky. - southwest of Odessa These were long distance shots, probably trying to stay out of range of Ukraine anti ship missiles effective range while probing the coastal defenses.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -

Barring a significant event to free up Russian ground forces to maneuver against Ukraine defenders, I see very little changes on the ground, with continued high Russian casualty and equipment loss rates.

Air attacks will continue with likely greater intensity, relying on cruse missiles to target residential areas of major cities like Kyiv, Mariupol, Khariv, etc. /Russian close air support will continue to suffer at the hands of the abundant, shoulder fired SAMs that take several jets out every day as well as numerous helicopters.

The biggest potential operation on the radar is an amphibious operation to the southwest of Odessa. Last night’s shelling/rocket attack from the naval fleet was likely a probing effort. However, this would be a strongly opposed operation that not only will cost a lot of men, but endanger surface ships as well. The area is well fortified and if Russia were to succeed, will need coordinated air support (lacking from Russia so far) as well as pressure on ground by forces coming either out of Crimea ore even the Transdniestria region of Moldova. With out those efforts to dilute coastal defenses, such an amphibious operation is perilous.

Impacts from Zelensky’s address to congress and the American people will take a couple days to be fully revealed. It definitely put pressure on biden to fish or cut bait.

It is becoming a race - can Russia muster enough reinforcements to swing the war without having to resort to even more devastating tactics (NBC) OR can Ukraine receive enough weapons and material to not only continue its defense but inflict even more devastating losses in personnel and equipment on Russian forces.

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Europe / NATO General -

The prime ministers of Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovenia have returned safely back to Poland on Wednesday after a visit to Kyiv meant to show support for Ukraine as it faces heavy bombardment.

A NATO Summit is scheduled for 24 March at NATO HQ. It is scheduled to address the Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, our strong support for Ukraine, and further strengthening NATO’s deterrence & defense.

NATO is set to tell its military commanders on Wednesday to draw up plans for new ways to deter Russia following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, including more troops and missile defenses in eastern Europe, officials and diplomats said.

An international peacekeeping mission should be sent to operate in Ukraine, the leader of Poland’s ruling party said on Tuesday during a press conference in Kyiv alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. “I think that it is necessary to have a peace mission - NATO, possibly some wider international structure - but a mission that will be able to defend itself, which will operate on Ukrainian territory,” Jaroslaw Kaczynski said during the conference, which was broadcast on Polish television.
OBSERVATION - A peace keeping force may likely be part of the March 24th NATO meeting.

US & NATO allies are sending several surface-to-air missiles systems to Ukraine. A senior US official tells me these systems include Soviet-era SA-8, SA-10, SA-12 and SA-14 mobile air defense systems, w/range higher than Stingers, giving capability to hit cruise missiles.
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Iran -

IRGC unveiled a underwater-drone-torpedo.

In a sign that getting the P5+1 nuclear deal with Iran through Congress might be difficult, if not impossible, 49 out of 50 Republican Senators have announced they will not back any deal that doesn’t limit Iran’s missile program and “confront Iran’s support for terrorism.”
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