Replies

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Wuhan virus -

Myocarditis used to be a rare disorder discussed mainly in academic literature, but now it is everywhere. Yet reports of myocarditis and pericarditis are so prevalent now that just in the first eight weeks of 2022, we’re already at 47% of the total VAERS submissions for 2021. There were 24,177 reports of pericarditis/myocarditis submitted to VAERS in 2021. In 2022, just through Feb. 25, there were 11,289 reports, which is nearly half of last year’s total.

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Economy -

biden trying to pin all the economic woes on Russia and its Ukraine invasion.

$1.5 trillion omnibus bill on Wednesday allocating $5.9 billion of fiscal 2022 Legislative Branch funding to boosting the allowance and salaries of their staff by about 21%.

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Invasion of Illegals -

Arrests and deportations of illegal immigrants have dropped by up to 85% under President Joe Biden’s administration compared to previous administrations, according to data released by the Department of Homeland Security.
Immigration and Customs Enforcement reported this week that it removed 59,011 illegal immigrants between October 2020 and September 2021. For comparison, in 2011 during the Obama administration, around 400,000 illegal immigrants were deported.

Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Mayorkas and other officials plan to notify Mexico that Title 42 may end as soon as April. Title 42 is a policy recommendation from CDC in times of public health emergencies.

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Strategic Activity / Deployments -

US Army 1st ABCT, 3rd Infantry, is manning prepositioned Stocks-2 vehicles and equipment at an ECHA in Grafenwoehr, Germany.

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North Korea -

South Korea’s military has said that North Korea is restoring tunnels at its nuclear test site.

With Yoon Suk-yeol becoming the president-elect of South Korea, it is expected he will do the following:
- Large-scale joint military exercises with the U.S.
- Support the deployment of a second THAAD.
- Prefer the U.S. over China.
- Label the DPRK as the “main enemy”.

Yoon also cited a preemptive strike as an option to deal with the North Korean threat. He also initially endorsed redeploying U.S. nuclear weapons to South Korea or commencing a “nuclear-sharing deal.”

OBSERVATION - Things are likely to become hotter on the Korean Peninsula over the course of the next year. Kim definitely won’t like this new president.

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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands after over two weeks This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Some Russian forces, particularly in the southern area of Ukraine, appear to be getting their act together, but are still facing vicious defense measures. However, efforts to surround Kyiv are still stalled to progressing slowly.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 100% of the combat force Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, There are no more reserves in theater for Russian forces to draw upon.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

Russia will treat western arms shipments to Ukraine as legitimate military targets, deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov says.
“We warned [the US] of consequences from the insane transfer to Ukraine of weapons like mobile anti-aircraft systems, anti-tank missiles, and so on.”
OBSERVATION - How far will Russia go to stop the flow of arms - Poland? NATO taking this threat very seriously.

Russia has increased the call for mercenaries to join the fight in Ukraine. So far the biggest numbers are coming from Syria and Chechenia, Both are touted as being experienced urban fighters, suggesting Russia intends to try to push into select cities.
OBSERVATION - As I noted yesterday, Russia seems unable to get additional troops internally - most likely without a general mobilizations and with a civilian population on the edge of anti-patin riots doesn’t what that action. These mercenaries will take a week or so to get integrated into operations and will need to be equipped before entering battle.

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Economic Impacts -
- Bloomberg: Russia loses over $30 billion of its GDP since the start of all-out invasion. Russia’s full-year GDP is expected to slump by about 9% in 2022, Bloomberg reports.
- Biden on Friday called for a removal of normal trade relations with Russia, allowing for new tariffs on Russian imports in yet another effort to ratchet up sanctions over Moscow’s intensifying invasion of Ukraine. Biden’s proposal, which would require congressional approval, would put Moscow’s trade relationship with the U.S. in the same category as North Korea and Cuba.
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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 20th show temperatures in the mid 30’s . Conditions maintain for muddy off road conditions, but no forecast for any rain which would basically put a nail into any maneuvering off road.

Ukraine’s fixed-wing aircraft fleet is estimated to be 80 percent intact 15 days after Russian invasion: senior U.S. defense official.
Ukraine only flying 56 fighter jets 5-10 hours per day given Russian surface-to-air missilery coverage over the country.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Russian forces appeared to be regrouping, possibly for a fresh offensive which could target the capital Kyiv in a few days, Britain’s defense ministry said on Friday. Russian ground forces were still making only limited progress, hampered by logistical problems and Ukrainian resistance.
Russia also increased missile attacks on airbases in central and western Ukraine. Many of these strikes were cruse missiles launched by Russian bombers in a stand-off mode. Evidence suggests that Ukraine ADA in the west world inflict severe losses on Russian aircraft if they conduct more direct attacks. The industrial city of Dnipro has been facing even more intensive missile attacks.

Unconfirmed report that staff at Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine (biggest nuclear plant in Europe) have been told the plant is now owned by Russian state nuclear energy company Rosatom

Kyiv front -
Intense bombardment of residental areas continue to create excessive civilian causalities. Towns like Irpin (west of Kyiv) have been turned largely to rubble. Numerous missile attacks on the city and surrounding neighborhoods over night.
Russia forces are still struggling to cross the Irpin River and many forces are trying to bypass that by swinging further west. Lighter ATGM equipped Ukraine forces keeping the Russian armor at bay.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Little change. Threat of Russian advance to Kyiv from this front has been greatly diminished over the past couple of days. The 40 mile column has tactically dispersed its vehicles into the surrounding cities and woods to try to minimize losses. Some evidence that the Russia forces may be repositioning and preparing of a stronger assault on Kyiv.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Two extremely extended Russian attack axes from Konotop and Sumy still in play. The road bound nature of the advance was dramatically videos as a Russian armor column (up to regimental size) got caught in a choke point and fell under Ukraine artillery, destroying numerous tanks and forcing the column to retreat.
Intensive fighting around Sumy reported over night.
Continues Russian bombing/artillery attacks have rubbled the historic center of Khariv. Defenders continue to hold Russian forces at bay and infliction heavy losses.
A push from the southern most portion southward has reached the town Izium. Again, road bound assault that is now endanger of stalling as POL convoys get exposed to Ukraine raids.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
No significant changes from Mar 5 positions. Conditions in Mariupol are becoming desperate with bombing killing hundreds of civilians. Residents of Melitopol call for the release of their mayor, Ivan Fedorov, who was abducted by Russian troops on Friday. Overnight intense artillery hit Mariupol and reports that the eastern portion of the city has fallen under Russian control. The most egregious attack by Russia was the destruction of the woman maternity hospital.

Crimea Front -
Three major pushes being 1) North - northwest towards Voznesensk 2) Northward towards Zaporizhzhia and 3) eastward towards Mariupol. Intense artillery at Mykolaiv overnight with the Regional governor Vitaly Kim saying Ukraine has repelled the attack. The city is key to any future assault on Odessa, further down on the Black Sea coast
This action suggests that Russia is contemplating a push towards Odessa This would also suggest a pivot to the west of the Voznesensk push.

Russian amphibious ships observed off shore of the western Crimea coast between Yevpatoriia and Sevastopol. No indicators of any impending amphibious operations.

Russian army bombed a residential area in Dnipro city. Explosions damaged a shoe factory, one apartment building and a kindergarten

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -

Little change in outlook. I expect Russia to continue the brutal and indiscriminate bombing of residential and other civilian targets to force the submission of the population while its military continues to be bogged down both by losses of combat forces made worse by continuing logistical morass. Russia has essentially no operational ground combat reserves out of his pre invasion staged forces, essentially 100% of ground forces are committed.

With the recent, harder push on Mykolaiv, Russia may be closer to executing an amphibious assault option to encircle Odessa. I would expect that it would wait until a more successful push westward from Mykolaiv before launching. Odessa appears to have fortified itself like Kyiv and will be a very tough nut to crack. The Crimea front has tactically been the most proficient in the war.

Russia will have to act and act soon to cutoff the supplies coming in via Poland. Either boots on the ground or a more substantial air/missile campaign is going to be needed. As Russia’s ground forces are essentially fully committed to existing combat, air/missile interdiction the most likely result. However, this will be largely shooting in the dark, so to speak, a hit and miss because Russia doesn’t have a good OODA loop for quickly processing targetable information. They may be able to strike fixed facilites, but the convoys are another matter. This has the greatest potential for conflict with NATO.

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Belarus -

(Reuters) - The leaders of Russia and Belarus agreed on Friday that Moscow would supply its smaller neighbour with the most up-to-date military equipment in the near future, the official Belarus Belta news agency said

Belarus government has said it will send five battalion tactical groups to the border with Ukraine to replace the troops currently stationed there. It denies that this is part of preparations for entry into the war
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Europe / NATO General -

The EU pledges to double military aid to Ukraine. This means an additional 500 million euros in military aid. No word on the kind of weaponry that it would finance
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Israel -

A top Ukrainian adviser and an Israeli official on Saturday pushed back against a media report suggesting Israel tried to nudge Ukraine into caving to Russian demands during talks. A report carried by Israel’s Walla news, The Jerusalem Post and US news site Axios had suggested, citing an unidentified Ukrainian official, that Bennett had urged Ukraine to give in to Russia.
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Globalism / Great Reset -

In an essay published in The Hill on Monday titled “After years of US population growth, it’s time for a pause,” former director of the United Nations Population Division Joseph Chamie argued that by curbing its population growth, America would have an easier time solving its major problems. “Without a doubt, America’s population growth is a major factor affecting domestic demand for resources, including water, food and energy, and the worsening of the environment and climate change,” he writes. “If the United States intends to address climate change, biodiversity loss, pollution, etc., it must consider how its population affects each issue,” he adds.
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Wuhan virus -

Pfizer is close to submitting data to the Food and Drug Administration on a fourth dose of its Covid-19 vaccine, according to CEO Albert Bourla. “Clearly there is a need in an environment of omicron to boost the immune response,” he told CNBC in an interview Friday.
OBSERVATION - Since the previous three jabs worked so well . . . .

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Economy -

Watch to see if Iran’s missile attack causes oil prices to spike.

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Biden / Harris watch -
Modification of this category - both are competing for the dumbest statement of the year award

While speaking at the DNC Winter Meeting on Saturday, Kamala Harris appeared to suggest that Ukraine was part of NATO.
“So I will say what I know we all say, and I will say over and over again: The United States stands firmly with the Ukrainian people in defense of the NATO Alliance.”

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China -

China places 17 million residents of Shenzhen under Covid lockdown
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North Korea -

Observers on watch for a possible ICBM test launch sometime this next week.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands after over two weeks This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

At least a dozen Russian - military affiliated airliners have been tracked flying into and out of Syria over the past couple days. This could likely be a airlift of fighters called up to join the Ukraine operation.

Anti-war protests continue across Russia, with more arrests.

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RUMINT - The Russian “army leadership has resumed the practice of ‘execution squads’ - echelons that follow the main forces of the Russian Federation and kill those who want to escape,”, just like Soviet Union’s commissar squads. Near Odesa, 600 marines rebelled and refused to leave their ship.
OBSERVATION - Not beyond the realm of reality, Putin is old school KGB and would sanction such actions. There are an abundance of reports out there describing the low moral of Russian conscripts and the break down of control.

Economic Impacts -
- Bermuda withdraws the licenses from 745 of Russia’s 1,400 airplanes, meaning they can no longer fly internationally. They are registered in Bermuda for tax avoidance.
- Russia said it is seeking help from China to shore up its economy amid western sanctions. Moscow claimed half of its foreign currency and gold reserves had been frozen by the West. “We have part of our gold and foreign exchange reserves in the Chinese currency, in yuan. And we see what pressure is being exerted by western countries on China in order to limit mutual trade with China. Of course, there is pressure to limit access to those reserves,” Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said. He said he hoped to increase partnership with China due to the closure of western markets.
OBSERVATION - Two points on the economic support from China. One, I think China didn’t expect the extent of Russian sanctions to be the degree that they are and seem to be increasing. China can’t handle that amount of economic support for Russia. Two, expect China to own most of Russia when they call in their chips for the support they have provided, just like China has other nations around the world.
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Ukraine -

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Award winning U.S. filmmaker Brent Renaud was shot and killed by Russian forces in Irpin, near Kyiv. Another journalist was wounded.

There are reports that progress is being made on Ukraine-Russia negotiations. Details firming up, but not fully announced.

Yavoriv training area in Lviv was targeted by Russian missiles overnight, least i8 to as many as 30 cruse missiles . Officials say at least 35 people were killed and 134 injured in the attack. The facility is about 15 km from polish border and has been used in the past for training with Nato instructors. There are rumors that some foreign volunteers in Ukraine could have been using the base was a hub for training to help Ukraine’s fight as well as train Ukrainian forces in the use of new weapons.
OBSERVATION - Could well be a warning shot by Russia who’ve already said they would be targeting Ukraine’s supply chain. The proximity to the Polish border was also a dangerous move - little room for targeting error. If the facility was being used for a degree of training, Russia may be hoping that it took out western advisors as well.

Kyiv front -
Intense bombardment of residential areas continue to create excessive civilian causalities. Towns like Irpin (west of Kyiv) have been turned largely to rubble.
Russia forces continue to struggle to get forces in position to surround and assault Kyiv. Fighting is violent in surrounding cities.

Recent reports that Russian VDV forces have attempted a river crossing of the Irpin River at Irpin. Uncertain information with reports that some VDV managed to enter the western portion of the city, but that the pontoon bridge site has been destroyed.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Little change. Threat of Russian advance to Kyiv from this front has been greatly diminished over the past couple of days. Some evidence that the Russia forces may be repositioning and preparing for a stronger assault on Kyiv. Withdrawal necessary for the purpose of refueling forces.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Two extremely extended Russian attack axes from Konotop and Sumy still in play. Ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks in NE Ukraine are still forcing Russia to redeploy forces away from offensive operations toward Kyiv to consolidate its long line of communication.

Continued Russian bombing/artillery attacks have rubbled the historic center of Khariv. Defenders continue to hold Russian forces at bay and infliction heavy losses.
A push from the southern most portion southward has reached the town Izium. Again, road bound assault that is now endanger of stalling as POL convoys get exposed to Ukraine raids.

Crimea Front -
Three major (predomantly road bound) pushes being 1) North - northwest along a Mykolaiv to Voznesensk axis. 2) Northward towards Zaporizhzhia and 3) eastward towards Mariupol. All appear to be stalled.

Evidence growing that Russian forces are attempting to bypass Mykolaiv to gain control of bridge like they did at Kherson.

Other reports that Ukraine is having some success breaking the siege of Mykolaiv, but not fully confirmed.

Crowds have taken to the streets of the southern Ukrainian port city of Kherson to protest its occupation by Russian forces.
It comes amid reports that Russia is planning to stage a sham referendum in the city so as to create another breakaway region, like those in Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine, and install a puppet administration.

The mayor of the southern city of Dniprorudne, Yevhen Matveyev, was arrested by Russian forces and replaced with a Pro-russian ‘mayor’ Galina Danilchenko, a former city council member. Danilchenko told residents not to take part in what she called “extremist actions”.

Watch continues on the amphibious force still holding off the west coast of Crimea.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -

Point regarding Russian offensive plans. I’ve read that the average Russian unit has a truck lift to take it to 90 miles (140km) from the closest large supply dump. They’ve noted that the vast majority of Russian advances (road bound) get no further than that from the border (if that much). Ukrainian interdiction of POL has been key to stopping these advances and then cutting them apart piecemeal as they sit with empty/near empty fuel tanks.

Russia increasing risk of direct confrontation with NATO as they strike further west and closer to the Polish border. As noted in previous posts, NATO CAP patrols and a over a dozen intel aircraft are patrolling the borders of Poland, Hungary, Romania and the Baltic States. Very little room for error.

Still strong NATO concerns over a possible chemical attack by Russia - with or without a ‘false flag’ event.

Russia is importing more fighters from Syria, it will take time to integrate them into the Russian operation. Don’t know if Russia will try to equip them with armor et al or just feed them in as a body pool to back fill depleted units. There will be communications issues, though many have some degree of Russian having worked with them in Syria. They will find that the Ukraine spring and operational environment is different from Syria - further degrading their effectiveness.

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Belarus -

Continued rumors that Belarus military is revolting against going into combat with Ukraine.
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Poland -

Polish President said in an interview with BBC that Russia using any weapons of mass destruction could be a “game-changer” and could make NATO think seriously about how to respond.
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Iran -
Iran claims responsibility for missile barrage last night that struck near U.S. targets in Erbil, Iraq. It is believe Iran used as many as 12 - Fateh-110 ballistic missiles with range of 300 km carrying 650 kg warheads. They were launched from Khasban military base Tabriz Iran.
Iran claims the missiles that targeted Erbil were in response to the killing of leaders of the Revolutionary Guards in Syria. The target appeared to be a US consulate building under construction and a US military base. No casualties were reported.
Status/impact to the nuclear deal is uncertain.

OBSERVATION - Iran just punched this into the RED zone. Attacks like this have been generally limited to Iranian proxy forces in Iraq. This time it was directly from Iranian lands and military facilities. Note worthy as well, these missiles are guided what a 30 foot CEP, they could have hit the consulate if they wanted, but doing so would technically be attacking US Territory - something they would want to avoid because that would be a direct act of war.
I’ve not seen any US reaction except the nothing of no casualties.
If the US doesn’t respond forcefully, Iran will see weakness and become even bolder in confronting the US directly and not via proxies. Iran used proxies during the Trump presidency as a buffer for deniability of any action.
ADDITIONAL NOTE - Israel conducted the air strike that took these IRGC senior officers out in the first place. I suspect that Iran isn’t done throwing stuff around.

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Iraq -

See Iran above RE missile strike
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