________________________________
Globalism / Great Reset -
In an essay published in The Hill on Monday titled “After years of US population growth, it’s time for a pause,” former director of the United Nations Population Division Joseph Chamie argued that by curbing its population growth, America would have an easier time solving its major problems. “Without a doubt, America’s population growth is a major factor affecting domestic demand for resources, including water, food and energy, and the worsening of the environment and climate change,” he writes. “If the United States intends to address climate change, biodiversity loss, pollution, etc., it must consider how its population affects each issue,” he adds.
_____________________________
Wuhan virus -
Pfizer is close to submitting data to the Food and Drug Administration on a fourth dose of its Covid-19 vaccine, according to CEO Albert Bourla. “Clearly there is a need in an environment of omicron to boost the immune response,” he told CNBC in an interview Friday.
OBSERVATION - Since the previous three jabs worked so well . . . .
_____________________________
Economy -
Watch to see if Iran’s missile attack causes oil prices to spike.
______________________________
Biden / Harris watch -
Modification of this category - both are competing for the dumbest statement of the year award
While speaking at the DNC Winter Meeting on Saturday, Kamala Harris appeared to suggest that Ukraine was part of NATO.
“So I will say what I know we all say, and I will say over and over again: The United States stands firmly with the Ukrainian people in defense of the NATO Alliance.”
___________________________
China -
China places 17 million residents of Shenzhen under Covid lockdown
____________________________________
North Korea -
Observers on watch for a possible ICBM test launch sometime this next week.
__________________________________
Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands after over two weeks This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Some Russian forces, particularly in the southern area of Ukraine, appear to be getting their act together, but are still facing vicious defense measures. However, efforts to surround Kyiv are still stalled to progressing slowly.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 100% of the combat force Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, There are no more reserves in theater for Russian forces to draw upon.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
At least a dozen Russian - military affiliated airliners have been tracked flying into and out of Syria over the past couple days. This could likely be a airlift of fighters called up to join the Ukraine operation.
Anti-war protests continue across Russia, with more arrests.
********
RUMINT - The Russian “army leadership has resumed the practice of ‘execution squads’ - echelons that follow the main forces of the Russian Federation and kill those who want to escape,”, just like Soviet Union’s commissar squads. Near Odesa, 600 marines rebelled and refused to leave their ship.
OBSERVATION - Not beyond the realm of reality, Putin is old school KGB and would sanction such actions. There are an abundance of reports out there describing the low moral of Russian conscripts and the break down of control.
Economic Impacts -
- Bermuda withdraws the licenses from 745 of Russia’s 1,400 airplanes, meaning they can no longer fly internationally. They are registered in Bermuda for tax avoidance.
- Russia said it is seeking help from China to shore up its economy amid western sanctions. Moscow claimed half of its foreign currency and gold reserves had been frozen by the West. “We have part of our gold and foreign exchange reserves in the Chinese currency, in yuan. And we see what pressure is being exerted by western countries on China in order to limit mutual trade with China. Of course, there is pressure to limit access to those reserves,” Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said. He said he hoped to increase partnership with China due to the closure of western markets.
OBSERVATION - Two points on the economic support from China. One, I think China didn’t expect the extent of Russian sanctions to be the degree that they are and seem to be increasing. China can’t handle that amount of economic support for Russia. Two, expect China to own most of Russia when they call in their chips for the support they have provided, just like China has other nations around the world.
____________________________________
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 20th show temperatures in the mid 30’s . Conditions maintain for muddy off road conditions, but no forecast for any rain which would basically put a nail into any maneuvering off road.
Ukraine’s fixed-wing aircraft fleet is estimated to be 80 percent intact 15 days after Russian invasion: senior U.S. defense official.
Ukraine only flying 56 fighter jets 5-10 hours per day given Russian surface-to-air missilery coverage over the country.
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Award winning U.S. filmmaker Brent Renaud was shot and killed by Russian forces in Irpin, near Kyiv. Another journalist was wounded.
There are reports that progress is being made on Ukraine-Russia negotiations. Details firming up, but not fully announced.
Yavoriv training area in Lviv was targeted by Russian missiles overnight, least i8 to as many as 30 cruse missiles . Officials say at least 35 people were killed and 134 injured in the attack. The facility is about 15 km from polish border and has been used in the past for training with Nato instructors. There are rumors that some foreign volunteers in Ukraine could have been using the base was a hub for training to help Ukraine’s fight as well as train Ukrainian forces in the use of new weapons.
OBSERVATION - Could well be a warning shot by Russia who’ve already said they would be targeting Ukraine’s supply chain. The proximity to the Polish border was also a dangerous move - little room for targeting error. If the facility was being used for a degree of training, Russia may be hoping that it took out western advisors as well.
Kyiv front -
Intense bombardment of residential areas continue to create excessive civilian causalities. Towns like Irpin (west of Kyiv) have been turned largely to rubble.
Russia forces continue to struggle to get forces in position to surround and assault Kyiv. Fighting is violent in surrounding cities.
Recent reports that Russian VDV forces have attempted a river crossing of the Irpin River at Irpin. Uncertain information with reports that some VDV managed to enter the western portion of the city, but that the pontoon bridge site has been destroyed.
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Little change. Threat of Russian advance to Kyiv from this front has been greatly diminished over the past couple of days. Some evidence that the Russia forces may be repositioning and preparing for a stronger assault on Kyiv. Withdrawal necessary for the purpose of refueling forces.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Two extremely extended Russian attack axes from Konotop and Sumy still in play. Ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks in NE Ukraine are still forcing Russia to redeploy forces away from offensive operations toward Kyiv to consolidate its long line of communication.
Continued Russian bombing/artillery attacks have rubbled the historic center of Khariv. Defenders continue to hold Russian forces at bay and infliction heavy losses.
A push from the southern most portion southward has reached the town Izium. Again, road bound assault that is now endanger of stalling as POL convoys get exposed to Ukraine raids.
Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
No significant changes from Mar 5 positions. Conditions in Mariupol are becoming desperate with bombing killing hundreds of civilians. Russian army shelled evacuation train Kramatorsk-Lviv in Lyman town in Donetsk region. 1 killed, 1 wounded.
Crimea Front -
Three major (predomantly road bound) pushes being 1) North - northwest along a Mykolaiv to Voznesensk axis. 2) Northward towards Zaporizhzhia and 3) eastward towards Mariupol. All appear to be stalled.
Evidence growing that Russian forces are attempting to bypass Mykolaiv to gain control of bridge like they did at Kherson.
Other reports that Ukraine is having some success breaking the siege of Mykolaiv, but not fully confirmed.
Crowds have taken to the streets of the southern Ukrainian port city of Kherson to protest its occupation by Russian forces.
It comes amid reports that Russia is planning to stage a sham referendum in the city so as to create another breakaway region, like those in Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine, and install a puppet administration.
The mayor of the southern city of Dniprorudne, Yevhen Matveyev, was arrested by Russian forces and replaced with a Pro-russian ‘mayor’ Galina Danilchenko, a former city council member. Danilchenko told residents not to take part in what she called “extremist actions”.
Watch continues on the amphibious force still holding off the west coast of Crimea.
Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg
OUTLOOK -
Point regarding Russian offensive plans. I’ve read that the average Russian unit has a truck lift to take it to 90 miles (140km) from the closest large supply dump. They’ve noted that the vast majority of Russian advances (road bound) get no further than that from the border (if that much). Ukrainian interdiction of POL has been key to stopping these advances and then cutting them apart piecemeal as they sit with empty/near empty fuel tanks.
Russia increasing risk of direct confrontation with NATO as they strike further west and closer to the Polish border. As noted in previous posts, NATO CAP patrols and a over a dozen intel aircraft are patrolling the borders of Poland, Hungary, Romania and the Baltic States. Very little room for error.
Still strong NATO concerns over a possible chemical attack by Russia - with or without a ‘false flag’ event.
Russia is importing more fighters from Syria, it will take time to integrate them into the Russian operation. Don’t know if Russia will try to equip them with armor et al or just feed them in as a body pool to back fill depleted units. There will be communications issues, though many have some degree of Russian having worked with them in Syria. They will find that the Ukraine spring and operational environment is different from Syria - further degrading their effectiveness.
___________________________________
Belarus -
Continued rumors that Belarus military is revolting against going into combat with Ukraine.
______________________________________
Poland -
Polish President said in an interview with BBC that Russia using any weapons of mass destruction could be a “game-changer” and could make NATO think seriously about how to respond.
______________________________________
Iran -
Iran claims responsibility for missile barrage last night that struck near U.S. targets in Erbil, Iraq. It is believe Iran used as many as 12 - Fateh-110 ballistic missiles with range of 300 km carrying 650 kg warheads. They were launched from Khasban military base Tabriz Iran.
Iran claims the missiles that targeted Erbil were in response to the killing of leaders of the Revolutionary Guards in Syria. The target appeared to be a US consulate building under construction and a US military base. No casualties were reported.
Status/impact to the nuclear deal is uncertain.
OBSERVATION - Iran just punched this into the RED zone. Attacks like this have been generally limited to Iranian proxy forces in Iraq. This time it was directly from Iranian lands and military facilities. Note worthy as well, these missiles are guided what a 30 foot CEP, they could have hit the consulate if they wanted, but doing so would technically be attacking US Territory - something they would want to avoid because that would be a direct act of war.
I’ve not seen any US reaction except the nothing of no casualties.
If the US doesn’t respond forcefully, Iran will see weakness and become even bolder in confronting the US directly and not via proxies. Iran used proxies during the Trump presidency as a buffer for deniability of any action.
ADDITIONAL NOTE - Israel conducted the air strike that took these IRGC senior officers out in the first place. I suspect that Iran isn’t done throwing stuff around.
__________________________________
Iraq -
See Iran above RE missile strike
_________________________________
________________________________
Wuhan virus -
Allegedly “fully-vaccinated” and “boosted” Barack Obama has tested positive for Covid-19 and is showing symptoms.
_____________________________
Economy -
Russia may halt wheat, corn, rye and barley exports on March 15th.
OBSERVATION - Combined with loss of grain exports from Ukraine, food prices across the globe will be hit hard. Middle east countries fed by Russia will be facing famine conditions absent any other support. Same for parts of Africa.
Europe will feel the pinch losing both sources of grain.
Meanwhile, China will continue its effort to corner grain markets by bidding higher than other countries.
US grain production is going to be impacted by continued drought conditions.
______________________________
CW2/Domestic violence -
Mayorkas released new rules on “extremism”. The new guidelines on extremist behavior include those who question the fraud in the 2020 election and anyone who question the regime’s talking points on COVID and its treatments including the mandates.
OBSERVATION - This is a continuation of the trend that started under 0bama to target Red America under weaponed Federal guidelines. This cocks the gun that biden could use in conjunction with the Patriot Act.
Amazon relocating 1,800 employees out of downtown Seattle due to spiking crime
Over the past few years, the area has seen increased open air drug use, fencing of stolen goods, shootings, carjackings and other violent crimes.
OBSERVATION - BLM/Antifa supported crime and violence continues to gut Seattle.
___________________________________
China -
China warned about supporting Russia economically and militarily
____________________________________
Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands after over two weeks This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Some Russian forces, particularly in the southern area of Ukraine, appear to be getting their act together, but are still facing vicious defense measures. However, efforts to surround Kyiv are still stalled to progressing slowly.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 100% of the combat force Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, There are no more reserves in theater for Russian forces to draw upon.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
********
RUMINT -
Russia has asked China for military aid to support its invasion of Ukraine, according to US officials. US officials told the Financial Times that it is suspected Russia may be running out of weaponry as the war enters its third week.
OBSERVATION - If Russia has requested military aid, such aid will take weeks to reach the Ukraine theatre in any substantial numbers.
Economic Impacts -
- Russian prosecutors have issued warnings to Western companies in Russia, including McDonald’s and IBM, threatening to arrest corporate leaders there who criticize the government or to seize assets of companies that withdraw from the country. (WSJ)
- Russia said on Sunday that it was counting on China to help it withstand the blow to its economy from sanctions, but the US has warned Beijing not to provide that support. The Russian finance minister, Anton Siluanov, said Moscow was unable to access $300bn of its $640bn in gold and foreign exchange reserves, but still held part of its reserves in the Chinese currency, the yuan.
- A Russian default on its debts after western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine is no longer “improbable”, but would not trigger a global financial crisis, the head of the International Monetary Fund said on Sunday.
Russia calling for fighters from Central Africa as well.
The Kremlin said on Monday that Russian forces could take full control of major Ukrainian cities and it had sufficient military clout to fulfil all of its aims in Ukraine without any help from China.
OBSERVATION - Yeh, right.
____________________________________
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 20th show temperatures in the mid 30’s . Conditions maintain for muddy off road conditions, but no forecast for any rain which would basically put a nail into any maneuvering off road.
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Ukraine’s armed forces are launching counter-attacks against Russian troops in Ukraine’s southern Mykolaiv region and eastern Kharkiv region.
Russian thrusts towards Kyiv were repulsed yesterday after two attempts river crossings NE of the city.
Kyiv front -
Intense bombardment of residential areas of surrounding towns continue to create excessive civilian causalities. Towns like Irpin (west of Kyiv) have been turned largely to rubble.
Artillery struck central Kyiv for the first time in over a week, hitting an apartment complex. Russian advances to the NE and NW repulsed City reportedly has stockpiled at least 2 weeks of food and essentials if cut off by Russian forces. However, Russia still is stymied in surrounding the city.
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Little change. Threat of Russian advance to Kyiv from this front has been stalled for many days. Reasons largely being a combination of lack of fuel / logistics and Ukraine nailing road bound Russian combat units at key choke points.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Two extremely extended Russian attack axes from Konotop and Sumy still in play. Ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks in NE Ukraine are still forcing Russia to redeploy forces away from offensive operations toward Kyiv to consolidate its long line of communication.
Continues Russian bombing/artillery attacks have rubbled the historic center of Khariv. Defenders continue to hold Russian forces at bay and infliction heavy losses.
A push from the southern most portion southward has reached the town Izium. Again, road bound assault that is now endanger of stalling as POL convoys get exposed to Ukraine raids.
Fighting around Khariv has forced some Russian forces back, but the town is a shell of its self from all the indiscriminate bombing.
Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
No significant changes from Mar 5 positions. Conditions in Mariupol continue to be desperate with bombing killing hundreds of civilians. Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of Russia’s Chechnya region and an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, said on Sunday that he had travelled into Ukraine to meet Chechen troops attacking Kyiv. Chechen units appear to be less than 20km east of Mariupol in the village of Bezimenne, Ukraine. - separatist held territory
OBSERVATION - Chechen forces Russia has recruited are known to be vicious and brutal. Rumors are that they are seeking to capture children to hold hostage. But apart from that terror aspect, they haven’t turned the war effort out of the separatist held zone.
Ukraine reports more success attacking Russian and separatist units allegedly inflicting severe casualties. Unconfirmed but fighting to relieve Mariupol has been fierce the past several days.
Crimea Front -
Three major (predominately road bound) pushes being 1) North - northwest along a Mykolaiv to Voznesensk axis. 2) Northward towards Zaporizhzhia and 3) eastward towards Mariupol. All three are still stalled. Combat continues in Mykolaiv but has reduced from yesterday.
Watch continues on the amphibious force still holding off the west coast of Crimea.
Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg
OUTLOOK -
Peace talks resume today.
I can only say that there will be more of the same. Intense, bombing/artillery strikes on civilian residential areas to try to break the will of the nation. Russian ground forces suffering from lack of logistics, who’s supply chain is getting hit by bypassed Ukraine forces. Russia will attempt to break the stalemate around Kyiv but I think their forces are logistically hamstrung as well has suffering from heavy casualties.
I also expect more bombing by RUAF, dangerous to pilots exposed to continued Ukraine ADA threats, but necessary to bomb civilian targets sufficiently.
Also expect Ru heavy bombers to lob more cruse missiles at major cities and potentially targets in W Ukraine they think maybe used to funnel replacement munitions to Uk forces.
___________________________________
Europe / NATO General -
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg appears to have stated yesterday that if any Harm comes to NATO Convoy’s that will be delivering Supplies to Ukraine, that it will be considered a Violation of Article 5 of the NATO Charter and the Alliance will React.
NATO joint exercises in Norway begins tomorrow. Cold Response 22 is a long-planned, defensive exercise bringing together thousands of troops from NATO Allies and partners, testing their ability to work together in cold weather conditions across Norway – on land, in the air and at sea
____________________________________
Iran -
The United States condemned on Sunday an Iranian attack on Iraq’s northern city of Erbil and backs Baghdad and governments across the region in the face of threats from Tehran, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said.
Iran claims it attacked a Mosad training facility in Erbil.
__________________________________
Iraq -
See Iran above re: Erbil
_________________________________
Syria -
Russian jets returned to the skies over Idlib after a notable absence. Doing normal combat patrols.
__________________________________
