Free Republic

Many have questioned the accuracy of official inflation statistics, with dozens of academic papers written on the topic and doubts voiced by sources ranging from the New York Times1 to former President Donald Trump. This matters not only because of the political salience of rising prices, but also because official inflation numbers are used to calculate real economic growth by adjusting nominal dollars to inflation-adjusted dollars. In this study we aim to quantify some of the more egregious biases in inflation statistics in order to get us closer to a true understanding of inflation since 2019, hence of true economic...

Consumer confidence in September suffered the worst decline in more than three years, dragged down by a weaker labor market and rising pessimism about future business conditions and incomes. The Conference Board on Tuesday said its index of U.S. consumer confidence fell to 98.7 in January from 105.6, near the lowest of the range for the index over the past two years. Economists had expected a slight decline to 103 from the preliminary estimate of 103.3 for August. Increasingly pessimistic expectations for the economy’s performance in the months ahead and a weaker labor market drove September’s confidence decline.

Will the U.S. economy be able to beat inflation without going into a recession? That may be the question investors are asking themselves as more economic data is pointing to a softening economy. Recession fears started to percolate in early August, when July jobs data showed the unemployment rate growing to 4.3%. The increase in unemployment triggered the recession-indicating Sahm rule and a deep stock-market selloff over the next two trading days. “The unemployment rate is increasingly more of a watch point for investors,” Matt Stucky, chief portfolio manager of equities at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, told MarketWatch. Although the...

LL Flooring - previously known as Lumber Liquidators - is shutting all its stores after going out of business after three decades. The retailer, one of America's biggest flooring suppliers, was looking for a buyer after filing for bankruptcy. Earlier in the summer it had 442 stores, but shut nearly 100 as it looked to cut costs and woo investors. No buyer could be found. In a letter to customers yesterday, bosses said: 'It is with a heavy heart that we must let you know that we are going to begin the process of winding down the business and closing...

Left-leaning media outlets like MSNBC are doing their best to protect Vice President Kamala Harris from scrutiny. As Ben Shapiro has been so keen on pointing out these last few weeks, it’s been nearly 30 days since Harris became the de facto Democrat nominee, and not once in that time has the media asked her an adversarial question. The media, which once loathed Harris, has provided nothing but glowing coverage of her. It hasn’t pushed her to lay out her policy proposals or explain how her new administration would be any different than the disastrously unpopular one she is currently...

The six one-offs that drove growth and pulled the global economy out of bubble-bust recessions for the past 30 years have all reversed or dissipated. Absent these one-off drivers, the global economy is stumbling off the cliff into a deep recession without any replacement drivers. Colloquially speaking, the global economy is toast.Here are the six one-offs that won't be coming back:1) China's industrialization.2) Growth-positive demographics.3) Low interest rates.4) Low debt levels.5) Low inflation.6) Tech productivity boom.Cutting to the chase, China bailed the world out of the last three recessions triggered by credit-asset bubbles popping: the Asian Contagion of 1997-98, the...

The U.S. unemployment rate has drifted upward over the past year, fueling recession concerns. The unemployment insurance program buckled during the Covid-19 pandemic under a deluge of claims. Experts say the system for unemployment benefits is ill equipped to handle the next economic downturn. Renewed fears of a U.S. recession have put a spotlight on unemployment. However, the system that workers rely on to collect unemployment benefits is at risk of buckling — as it did during the Covid-19 pandemic — if there’s another economic downturn, experts say. “It absolutely isn’t” ready for the next recession, said Michele Evermore, senior...

Two new surveys say most Americans think the recession has already begun. This must come as a shock to our mendacious media sacrificing fresh mountains of newsprint to gaslight Kackles over the 50-yard line come November. Meanwhile, nearly 70% of Americans report that inflation—which that same media told us was long gone —continues making life a struggle, with little prospect of saving for the future or getting out of debt. The numbers come from two surveys by left-wing Guardian-Harris polling, and another from payment network Affirm, who sampled 2,000 Americans. Nearly 60% say we’re already in recession, and on average,...

Biden-Harris senior economic adviser Gene Sperling on Monday left the White House for the presidential campaign trail on the same day American stocks plunged and fears of a recession became readily apparent. Sperling is leaving to become a senior economic adviser to Harris’s policy team on her presidential campaign. He served Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, and President Joe Biden tasked Sperling with administering the $1.9 trillion coronavirus pandemic passed in the early days of his presidency. However, the senior economic adviser for Biden and Harris is leaving the White House at a time that major stock indexes fell...

U.S. stocks fell sharply on Monday as part of a global market sell-off centered around U.S. recession fears. Japan’s Nikkei 225 plunged 12% in its worst day since the 1987 Black Monday crash for Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1,068 points, or 2.7%. The Nasdaq Composite lost 6%, and the S&P 500 slid 4.2%. Fears of a U.S. recession were the main culprit for the global market meltdown after Friday’s disappointing July jobs report. Investors are also concerned that the Federal Reserve is behind in cutting interest rates to bolster an economic slowdown, with the central bank...

U.S. stock-market futures fell late Sunday, after a volatile week on Wall Street that saw the Nasdaq fall into correction territory. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slid more than 250 points, or 0.7%, as of 11 p.m. Eastern on Sunday, as S&P 500 futures fell 1.4% and Nasdaq-100 futures tumbled 2.4%. Each had improved slightly late Sunday from their session lows. Crude oil futures were up slightly amid heightened concerns over escalating hostilities in the Middle East. Cryptocurrencies fell, led by bitcoin, which retreated 8% and slipped below the $55,000 level after topping $65,000 on Friday, while ether ETHUSD sank...

The US economy may have just entered a recession. According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday, the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July, up from 4.1% in June and from recent lows of 3.4% in April 2023. The increase officially triggered the Sahm Rule — a recession indicator developed by former Fed economist Claudia Sahm — which says that the US economy is in a downturn when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by 0.5% from its 12-month low. The gauge has a perfect track record through at least the last nine...

Nearly 350,000 Americans settled for part-time jobs in July according to Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data released Friday.... Meanwhile, the number of American workers employed part-time because their hours were reduced or they could not find full-time jobs increased by 346,000 to 4.6 million, raising the specter of recession, according to economists who spoke to the Daily Caller News Foundation.... E.J. Antoni, a research fellow at the Heritage Foundation’s Grover M. Hermann Center for the Federal Budget, told the DCNF. “The Biden-Harris administration has turned the American labor market into a temp agency.”... Since June 2023, the U.S. has...

The US labor market cooled significantly last month as unemployment unexpectedly rose, sparking fears of a slowdown across the world’s largest economy. American employers added 114,000 jobs in July – short of the 180,000 additions expected by economists, and a marked decrease from the 179,000 added in June. The headline unemployment increased to 4.3%, its highest level since October 2021, up from 4.1% the previous month. Wall Street fell sharply following the official release. The S&P 500 declined 1.8% to a two-month low, as the technology-focused Nasdaq fell 2.4% and entered “correction” territory, having retreated 10% from the record high...

Federal Reserve (Fed) chairman Jerome Powell’s Wednesday announcement that the central bank might start lowering interest rates in September sets the stage for a potential reversal of the longstanding pattern of inconsistent and contradictory indicators from the economy. Unfortunately, that change may not be for the better, with a conservative September interest rate cut of 0.25 percent being too small and arriving too late to do much good. Additionally, the central bank said it will continue reducing its balance sheet by selling Treasury securities, agency debt, and agency mortgage‑backed securities, which tightens the money supply. Scarcer money is more costly....

US stocks tumbled across the board on Friday after the July jobs report showed more cooling in the labor market, fueling concerns the Federal Reserve's "higher for longer" interest-rate stance might end in recession. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) dropped 2.9% after the jobs report's release. That plunged the tech-heavy index into correction territory, more than 10% below its recent high in early July. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slumped nearly 2.4%, or close to 1000 points, as a flight from stocks accelerated. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) sank 2.5%. Stocks kicked off August with a sell-off after a clutch of...

Stocks fell sharply on Friday with the S&P 500 headed for its worst session in roughly two years, as a much weaker-than-anticipated jobs report for July ignited worries that the economy could be falling into a recession. The broad market index dropped 2.1%, on pace for its biggest one-day sell-off since 2022, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 911 points, or 2.3%. Friday’s sell-off pushed the Nasdaq into correction territory — down more than 10% from an all-time high set nearly a month ago. The Nasdaq-100, which is made up of the 100 largest...

Intel’s on a long, long road to recovery, and over 15,000 workers will no longer be coming along for the ride. The chipmaker just announced it’s downsizing its workforce by over 15 percent as part of a new $10 billion cost savings plan for 2025, which will mean a headcount reduction of greater than 15,000 roles, Intel tells The Verge. The company currently employs over 125,000 workers, so layoffs could be as many as 19,000 people. Intel will reduce its R&D and marketing spend by billions each year through 2026; it will reduce capital expenditures by more than 20 percent...

Shoppers, it may be time to find a new pharmacy. Walgreens is closing up to a quarter of its 8,600 stores within the United States. Walgreens CEO Tim Wentworth recently explained to the Wall Street Journal on June 27 that the closures would focus on locations that aren't profitable, too close to each other or stores struggling with theft. .... According to CNN, 75% of the company's U.S. stores account for 100% of its operating income. The company will examine the remaining 25% of its 8,600 stores for closure. That equates to roughly 2,150 stores closing shop across the country...

(The Center Square) – In June, nine Illinois companies announced a total of 1,017 jobs affected by mass layoffs. A policy analyst and economy expert says more people are relying on themselves for employment. A “mass layoff” under the Illinois Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act is a reduction in force at a single site of employment of 25 or more full-time employees if they constitute one-third or more of full-time employees at the site, or 250 or more full-time employees. Director of Fiscal and Economic Research at Illinois Policy Bryce Hill said Illinois has the least business-friendly state of...