Free Republic

Beege's excellent post on the financial bonanza that Trump's tariffs have brought highlights one side of the story that the Pravda Media didn't expect. JP Morgan's reversal of its prediction that Trump's trade policy would usher in a recession tells the other side. All the "best people" have missed the point of Trump's moves to reshape world trade. JP Morgan's prediction that the tariffs would usher in a serious recession was not insane. Any economist will tell you that, all other things being equal, reducing the friction involved in people trading will reduce the efficiency of the market. Inefficient markets...

This week, much of the mainstream media ran with the headline that the economy contracted in the first quarter of this year. Predictably, they promptly blamed President Donald Trump. But a quick glance under the hood shows the data points to a much stronger economy than the headlines suggest. On Wednesday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its estimate of economic growth measured by gross domestic product (GDP) for January through March. The topline figure pointed to a contraction of 0.3 percent—a number that certainly doesn’t seem positive. If we learned anything from economic data under former President Joe Biden,...

Has anyone noticed the MSM is now broadcasting store closings, lay offs, recession, etc. to frighten the sheeple. Meanwhile, legitimate job creation (private sector) is on the rise, prices are dropping! Funny they hid all the recession talk during the installed pedo's regime. Even with two quarters of GDP down.

A top economic adviser to President Trump confidently predicted Monday the US would not experience a recession this year — despite widespread uncertainty over the administration’s tariff regime. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told Fox Business Network “100% not, 100% not” when asked by host Maria Bartiromo about the possibility of a sustained downturn. “If you look at the jobs numbers, they’re very, very strong,” Hassett explained. “When I talk anecdotally to CEOs, I say things like, ‘Well, jeez, is the uncertainty over tariffs looking like it’s gonna be a big drag?’ And they’re saying things like, ‘No, in...

Stanford University Hoover Institution fellow Victor Davis Hanson recommends everyone “take a deep breath” when it comes to all the talk about tariffs. Appearing this week as a guest on Sirius XM’s “The Megyn Kelly Show,” the author and podcast host made several important points for Americans to consider as many in the media and Wall Street pundits predict calamity for the economy due to President Donald Trump’s trade policies. “There is a lot of misinformation,” Hanson said, first pointing out that many who are critical of Trump are only criticizing him because he is “Trump.” “Donald Trump did everything...

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer on Monday warned President Trump’s tariffs will destroy New York City’s economy and likely plunge it right into a recession — as he urged the commander in chief to “back off.” The New York Democrat claimed Trump’s “pinball tariff strategy” could result in a nearly $20 billion direct hit to the Big Apple and threaten hundreds of thousands of jobs. “President Trump’s pinball tariff strategy will wreak total havoc on New York City and is likely to drive us right into a recession. We’ve crunched the numbers, and what doesn’t look good for the nation,...

While the Trump administration is optimistic about the country's growth prospects—Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick going so far as to say Americans should "absolutely not" prepare for a recession—economists are voicing gloomy forecasts. Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi on Thursday compared the current levels of uncertainty to those seen during 9/11 and the 2008 financial crash, having previously said that he felt the country was being "pushed into a recession" by Donald Trump's tariff policies. What Are the Main Recession Indicators Saying? With input from U.S. economists, Newsweek has identified the five key indicators that experts are monitoring to evaluate the...

Prior to the current recession, the deepest post-World War II economic downturn occurred in the early 1980s. According to the accepted arbiter of the economy’s ups and downs, the National Bureau for Economic Research, a brief recession in 1980 — lasting only six months — and a short period of growth, were followed by a sustained recession from July 1981 to November 1982.The unemployment rate hovered between 7% and 8% from the summer of 1980 to the fall of 1981, when it began to rise quickly. By March 1982 it had reached 9%, and in December of that year the...

President Donald Trump declined to explicitly rule out a full-blown recession for the U.S. economy this year, telling Maria Bartiromo in a recent "Sunday Morning Futures" exclusive that the country will see a "period of transition" as his policies take effect. "I hate to predict things like that," he said of a recession. "There is a period of transition because what we're doing is very big. We're bringing wealth back to America. That's a big thing… it takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us." The president's comments come amid some business leaders' instability concerns...

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) said he’s hearing a deluge of complaints from business leaders in Kentucky about the potential impact of Trump’s trade policies on the local economy. “I have every major industry in Kentucky lobbying me against them: the cargo shippers, the farmers, the bourbon manufacturers, the homebuilders, the home sellers — you name it — fence manufacturers,” Paul told The Hill. “The bourbon industry says they’re still hurt from the retaliatory tariffs” during Trump’s first term, he said. “So do the farmers.” He said the federal government had to pay $20 billion to $30 billion in the “last...

It may not seem so to some, but many Americans are struggling. While the S&P 500 has delivered eye-popping returns over the past two years, workers have been increasingly pinched by inflation, and job losses are becoming increasingly common. As a result, consumer confidence has plummeted, casting a big shadow over what could happen to the U.S. economy next. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, a stock market veteran trained by legendary hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller, has watched the economy's give-and-takes for decades. Recently, he offered up thoughts on the U.S. economy's future that are likely to raise eyebrows. Challenger, Gray,...

Mark Cuban warned the federal government's abrupt and deep cuts are having spillover effects across the economy, eventually leading to a downturn. The latest jobs report showed solid gains, but it pointed to early effects of DOGE cuts and didn't capture the wave of layoffs that have come more recently. Meanwhile, Wall Street is pricing in greater odds of a recession.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday that Americans should “absolutely not” brace for a recession as President Donald Trump plans to implement far-reaching reciprocal tariffs on goods from foreign countries. “There’s going to be no recession in America. ... Global tariffs are going to come down because President Trump has said, ‘You want to charge us 100%? We’re going to charge you 100%,’” Lutnick told NBC News’ “Meet the Press.” Lutnick argued that Trump plans to “unleash America out to the world” and “grow our economy in a way we’ve never grown before.” “So, if Donald Trump is bringing growth...

Tesla’s Empire CRUMBLES: Sales Crash & Owners Run For Their Lives - (in Europe too) Rev Nation Tesla is in serious trouble. Sales are plummeting across the globe, with shocking declines in key markets like Europe, Canada, and the United States. Once the undisputed leader in the EV market, Tesla is now facing stiff competition, political backlash, and declining consumer confidence. Here’s the latest sales data: 🔹 United States: Tesla sales rose 14% in February 2025 to around 42,000 vehicles, but market share dropped to 44% in 2024, signaling major challenges. 🔹 Global Sales: Tesla delivered 495,600 vehicles in Q4...

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth...in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.8 percent on March 3, down from -1.5 percent on February 28.

For some time, monthly consumer retail spending reports from the Census Bureau have had a touch of amazement about them. Many would strong economic growth would be spread close to evenly across each wealth class. However, according to a Moody’s Analytics analysis of Federal Reserve data, the bustling economy is not a story of all consumers spending shoulder-to-shoulder. Instead, according to The Wall Street Journal on Moody's numbers, the tale is of how statistical distributions are always critical in looking at data.The top 10% of earners — households making $250,000 a year or more — are responsible for 49.7% of...

Being a tariff man may come with some consequences for the US economy. That's the warning from former Trump communications director and Skybridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci. "I don't think this sort of blanket approach is the right way to do it, and I think he's [Trump] is going to put us into a recession, frankly," Scaramucci told me at the Bitcoin Investor Week conference. "Remember tariffs are a tax, and they're primarily a consumer tax," Scaramucci added. It's "a consumption tax, sort of like a VAT [value-added tax]. And that’s a regressive tax. So what ends up happening is...

US corporate bankruptcies hit their highest level since the 2008 financial crisis - as Americans tighten their belts. Companies have also incresingly been grappling with high rising debts - driven by high interest rates that caused borrowing costs to spike. In 2024, 686 companies filed for bankruptcy, up 8 percent from 2023 - and almost more than 2021 and 2022 combined. It also marks the most filings since 2010, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. In addition last year, more companies tried to avoid bankruptcy through out-of-court actions, with these efforts outnumbering actual bankruptcies two to one, according...

Argentina has come out of a deep recession in a major victory for the country’s unorthodox President Javier Milei, who has spent the past year enacting sweeping — and painful — reforms in Latin America’s third-largest economy. Gross domestic product grew 3.9% in the July-to-September quarter compared with the previous three months, Argentina’s statistics agency said Monday. The agriculture and mining sectors drove the expansion, with consumer spending also growing strongly. But manufacturing and construction suffered sharp declines in output. The news of the economic rebound comes a year after Milei was elected on a ticket to tackle chronic hyperinflation...

The number of job openings in the United States has been “falling off a cliff”, and that is a major red flag. The last four years have been an economic nightmare for most Americans, and that is one of the primary reasons why Donald Trump won the election. But as we approach 2025, things are starting to get frighteningly bad. When the number of job openings in the U.S. drops by 2 million or more, that normally signals that we are either in a recession or that one is about to happen. Well, as you can see from this chart...