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Five Recession Indicators Now Raising Alarm in the US
Newsweek ^ | 03/29/2025 | Hugh Cameron

Posted on 03/29/2025 8:22:01 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

While the Trump administration is optimistic about the country's growth prospects—Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick going so far as to say Americans should "absolutely not" prepare for a recession—economists are voicing gloomy forecasts.

Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi on Thursday compared the current levels of uncertainty to those seen during 9/11 and the 2008 financial crash, having previously said that he felt the country was being "pushed into a recession" by Donald Trump's tariff policies.

What Are the Main Recession Indicators Saying?

With input from U.S. economists, Newsweek has identified the five key indicators that experts are monitoring to evaluate the likelihood of an economic downturn.

Consumer Confidence

Economist Gary Hufbauer told Newsweek that measures of consumer confidence are among the most important gauges of the country's economic wellbeing.

Optimism about the state of the economy, and one's personal finances, translate into consumer spending, estimated to account for over two-thirds of the nation's gross domestic product (GDP).

"A change in feelings about the economic backdrop is often a harbinger of things to come and precedes a downshift in consumer spending and business investment," according to Jeffrey Roach of LPL Financial.

The Conference Board's latest Consumer Confidence Index, arguably the most commonly consulted measure, saw a 7.2-point drop between February and March. This reading, which came in below expectations, marked the fourth consecutive month of declines and brought the index to its lowest level since January 2021, when the country was still grappling with the COVID pandemic.

The Expectations Index, which weighs consumers' forecasts for economic conditions in the short-term, tumbled to 65.2, the lowest reading in 12 years and below the 80-point threshold that the Conference Board said "usually signals a recession ahead."

Preliminary results for the University of Michigan's widely watched Consumer Sentiment Index also revealed a drastic decline...

(Excerpt) Read more at newsweek.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: economy; indicators; recession
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1 posted on 03/29/2025 8:22:01 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

We actually already had one...but Biden wasted a ton of money to mask it.


2 posted on 03/29/2025 8:22:48 PM PDT by for-q-clinton
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To: SeekAndFind

The other indicators are:

* Credit Card Late Payments and Default Rates

* Business Uncertainty Index

* Trade Policy Uncertainty Index

* Inflation Expectations


3 posted on 03/29/2025 8:23:32 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Trump -—> Main Street >> Wall Street.

The US will prosper in the long run.


4 posted on 03/29/2025 8:24:46 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: SeekAndFind

Past time to Build Back Better.......


5 posted on 03/29/2025 8:26:26 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: for-q-clinton

Zackly.


6 posted on 03/29/2025 8:27:08 PM PDT by BradyLS (DO NOT FEED THE BEARS!)
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To: SeekAndFind
The housing market is another indicator. Home prices are through the roof, as are rental properties.

The rental neighborhood I live is going thru a huge upheaval after being bought out by Allstate Property Management. All rental prices are going up on average by $250 monthly, thereby pricing the units beyond the ability for anyone to afford.

As such, many are moving out. They say they are bringing the prices up to market level rates while ignoring the fact that people moved here because the prices were lower than market and that made them affordable. Now they won't be. People are pissed.

7 posted on 03/29/2025 8:34:59 PM PDT by ducttape45 (Jeremiah 17:9, "The heart is deceitful above all things, and desperately wicked: who can know it?")
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To: SeekAndFind

NOTE TO ANY POTENTIALLY GULLIBLE READERS: Consider carefully Newsweek’s potential motivation for writing this story. Newsweek and all Never-Trumpers would love to see a recession triggered.

Are you going to believe Newsweek/Never-Trumpers or your lying eyes?


8 posted on 03/29/2025 8:36:16 PM PDT by House Atreides (I’m now ULTRA-MAGA-PRO-MAX)
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To: House Atreides

I realize NewsWeek is by nature, anti-Trump. But is the article actually REASONABLE when it tells us to look at these indicators?

That’s the question to ask REGARDLESS of who the President is.


9 posted on 03/29/2025 8:37:49 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: for-q-clinton

Maybe trump should too. Midterms are around the corner something forgotten around here. Hell lousiana told governor Landry to take a hike today when they told him no way on the four amendments he wanted passed.


10 posted on 03/29/2025 8:39:19 PM PDT by napscoordinator (DeSantis is a beast! Florida is the freest state in the country! )
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To: SeekAndFind

So, everything on your list with the exception of Credit Card Late Payments and Default Rates cannot be measured objectively an yet you want us to believe there is a recession coming?

Why, given the source of this article and the the fact the 4 out of the 5 measurement criteria are simply aemotional perceptions that can be easily manipulated should we not believe this is just another attempt at lying and Propaganda?


11 posted on 03/29/2025 8:41:36 PM PDT by SoConPubbie (Trump has all the right enemies, DeSantis has all the wrong friends.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Ahhh…. is YOUR alarm being raised? Mine isn’t.


12 posted on 03/29/2025 8:41:50 PM PDT by House Atreides (I’m now ULTRA-MAGA-PRO-MAX)
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To: SeekAndFind

In southern Pennsylvania gas prices are rising and retail egg prices aren’t falling.

Pretty soon a lot of voters are going to believe that they were baited and switched.


13 posted on 03/29/2025 8:43:28 PM PDT by lightman (Beat the Philly fraud machine the Amish did onest, ja? Nein, zweimal they did already!)
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To: napscoordinator

Trump has 2 years to fix what he can fix. That’s it.


14 posted on 03/29/2025 8:45:17 PM PDT by for-q-clinton
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To: House Atreides

RE: Ahhh…. is YOUR alarm being raised?

I always have a personal beacon when it comes to stocks regardless of WHO the Presidcent is.

When I’ve made enough profit on a stock I own ( e.g. 20% ), I usually put a trailing stop to trigger a sell when it comes below a certain price ( which is still profitable ).

When I’m watching a stock with good fundamentals that is falling in sympathy with the general market ( such as what we have today ), I put in a buy at a certain price.

Recently, there are more sells than buys.


15 posted on 03/29/2025 8:52:38 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

In a Biden administration six months of downturn is not a recession. In a Trump administration 12 seconds that a liberal felt like it was maybe a downturn equals full blown depression.


16 posted on 03/29/2025 9:05:16 PM PDT by Colorado Doug (Now I know how the Indians felt to be sold out for a few beads and trinkets)
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To: SeekAndFind

Commiemedia is trying to talk down the economy.


17 posted on 03/29/2025 9:15:44 PM PDT by bray (It's not racist to be racist against races the DNC hates.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Lump all the economists into one umbrella and everyone of them will predict a different outcome.


18 posted on 03/29/2025 9:41:50 PM PDT by gildafarrell (You may be disappointed if you fail, but you are doomed if you don't try.)
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To: SeekAndFind

So in addition to your 4 points there is Consumer Confidence.

In less than 90 days into Trump’s administration which is being blocked by out of control judges, it is all Trump’s fault.

Amazing.


19 posted on 03/29/2025 9:45:34 PM PDT by where's_the_Outrage? (Drain the Swamp. Build the Wall.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Communist BS propaganda!
KATB!


20 posted on 03/29/2025 10:00:11 PM PDT by SuperLuminal (Where is rabble-rising Sam Adams now that we need him? Is his name Trump, now?)
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