Free Republic

Swiss chocolate maker Barry Callebaut on Thursday slashed its operating profit forecast, citing falling cocoa prices, industry overcapacity and potential supply disruption linked to the Iran war. The company, which is the world’s largest chocolate maker, said it now expected earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to decrease by “mid-teens” percentage in its 2025 to 2026 fiscal year. The outlook reflects a significant downgrade from just three months earlier, when the Zurich-headquartered company said it was preparing for a return to growth. Hein Schumacher, who was appointed Barry Callebaut CEO in late January, said Thursday that the firm has an...

Iran’s central bank has warned President Masoud Pezeshkian that rebuilding the country’s war-damaged economy could take more than a decade, sources familiar with internal deliberations told Iran International. In a stark assessment delivered to the president in recent days, senior economic officials said the damage inflicted during the 40-day war with the United States and Israel—combined with Iran’s already fragile economic situation—could take up to 12 years to repair. Several major airports were damaged during the conflict, while strikes also targeted oil facilities, refineries and petrochemical installations that are central to Iran’s export revenues and industrial supply chains. Officials involved...

If AI displaces human workers faster than the economy can reabsorb them, it risks eroding the very consumer demand firms depend on. We show that knowing this is not enough for firms to stop it. In a competitive task-based model, demand externalities trap rational firms in an automation arms race, displacing workers well beyond what is collectively optimal. The resulting loss harms both workers and firm owners. More competition and "better" AI amplify the excess; wage adjustments and free entry cannot eliminate it. Neither can capital income taxes, worker equity participation, universal basic income, upskilling, or Coasian bargaining. Only a...

1/10 The U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would cost Iran approximately $276M/day in lost exports and disrupt $159M/day in imports, a combined economic damage of ~$435M/day, or $13B/month.Over 90% of Iran's $109.7B in annual trade transits the Persian Gulf. Oil/gas accounts for 80% of government export earnings and 23.7% of GDP. Kharg Island alone generates ~$53B/year, or as I noted to @TIME, "$78 billion a year in energy

Over the past 45 years, wage growth for most Americans has been halting at best, often failing to keep up with the country’s overall economic gains. The issue underpinning America’s cost-of-living crisis isn’t just rising prices. The real culprit behind America’s affordability crisis is that employers have had too much power and too little motivation to share gains. The consequences of this imbalance are clear. The economy’s productivity grew by around 73% between 1979 and 2019, but wages in the middle rose only about 23%. Here is what this means in concrete terms. A retail worker in 1979 earned about...

Inflation surged in March as consumer prices jumped amid the economic disruptions caused by the Iran war's impact on the energy market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday said that the consumer price index (CPI) – a broad measure of how much everyday goods like gasoline, groceries and rent cost – rose 0.9% from a month ago and is 3.3% higher than last year. The annual figure jumped from last month's 2.4% reading, while the monthly increase also rose markedly from last month's 0.3% reading Expectations vs. reality Both the 0.9% monthly increase and 3.3% annual rise were in...

It appears that so many "elites" are making statements and publishing their financial moves (Bershire Hathaway admitting they're sittingon 400 billion in cash) in an effort to get retail customers (general public) to sell share or move their 401k accounts to cash (sell out) in order to get the market to crash. They have probably already shorted most everything and are hoping to make big bucks on the selloff. It doesn't look like it's working. So many financial pundits are screaming we're going to have a crash that the roar is deafining. However, the markets are still holding up and...

I just saw a list of the commodities that are undergoing restriction of distribution in the Strait of Hormuz. When seeing a stark view of them, together as a group, I hadn't realized how extensive it is: 1) oil (gasoline and deisel), 2) liquid natural gas (LNG), 3) urea (fertilizer for food), 4) sulfuric acid (phosphate fertilizers for farming), 5) helium (microchips). (Source: Larry Johnson, today 04/06/2026 at 9 AM E.S.T.). I would like to hear from someone who has a good, fundamental understanding of economics, about the following question, (not someone who is an academic egghead, not anyone who...

The U.S. middle class is shrinking, but not because more Americans are poorer. Instead, more households are climbing into the echelons of the upper middle class due to income gains in recent decades, according to research from the nonpartisan American Enterprise Institute. About 31% of U.S. households earn enough to be considered upper middle class, a roughly threefold increase since 1979, making it the nation's largest economic group, the research found. Meanwhile, the share of Americans in the "core" and "low" middle class segments has declined over that time, primarily because more households in those income groups have jumped ahead...

On March 5, Politico economics correspondent Victoria Guida made it clear she's frustrated that President Trump isn't losing momentum. noted That March piece is dripping with frustration and irritation, starting with the headline: "Trump Keeps Gambling With the Economy — And Getting Away With It."Well it now appears that same bitterness on the part of Guida has carried over into April as reflected in title of her Friday story, "Job growth shatters expectations in March, in boost to Trump." And if you missed the bitterness in the title, the subtitle makes it quite clear, "That report gives the president some...

TEHRAN — March 29, 2026 : Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has cautioned senior leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) that Iran’s economy could face total collapse within three to four weeks if a regional ceasefire is not achieved, according to informed sources cited by Iran International. The warning reflects growing internal divisions between Iran’s civilian administration and military leadership as the ongoing conflict enters its fifth week, intensifying both economic strain and governance disputes. Internal Tensions Over War Strategy The reported disagreement centers on the direction and management of military operations. President Pezeshkian is said to have directly...

President Donald Trump oversaw record levels of domestic energy production in 2025, including close to a billion barrels of offshore oil, according to the Department of the Interior.Last year saw a record of 714 million barrels of offshore oil produced, according to a press release from the Interior Department. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum underscored that the United States is tapping into its true energy potential.“President Trump has made it clear that America should fully develop its abundant energy resources in a way that strengthens our economy and benefits American families,” Burgum said in a statement.“By providing regulatory certainty, streamlining processes...

While New York and California are losing population, states like South Carolina and Alabama are not only gaining residents at a record rate, but are also experiencing rapid economic growth.AdvertisementA recent JL Partners poll captures a shift in perception: 36 percent of Americans now expect the South to lead economic growth over the next decade — far ahead of the West Coast (23 percent), Northeast (21 percent), and Midwest (19 percent). This is quite a transformation. For as long as anyone can remember, the South seemed to be a byword for backwardness. Since the late nineteenth century, American commerce and...

Recent press reports and opinion poll results declare the U.S. economy is in worse shape than it was in 2021 through 2024. This impression prevails despite very high gross domestic product growth and falling inflation in the second and third quarters of last year, in the wake of slower growth and steady inflation numbers in the fourth quarter.An accurate gauge of the overall health of the economy is critically important considering the federal government’s assumption of authority and control over the nation’s economic well-being. A false diagnosis will lend credence to bad policy choices.Overall, the U.S. economy is not yet...

[WASHINGTON] Trump administration officials are examining what a potential spike in oil prices as high as US$200 a barrel would mean for the economy, according to sources familiar with the matter, a sign senior officials are studying the possible fallout from extreme scenarios for the Iran war.

It's a reaction/commentary video (uploaded around March 22, 2026) responding to a segment from Caleb Hammer's "Financial Audit" series. In the original clip, Hammer interviews a blue-haired woman (described as a liberal) who has accumulated significant debt and expresses a desire to leave the U.S. to escape "Trump's America," believing Europe (e.g., Germany) offers better opportunities, especially for artists, easier side hustles, stronger social safety nets, and less excessive capitalism. Main content summary: Hammer challenges her views head-on, arguing that: The U.S. federal budget actually allocates far more to social programs (Medicare, Medicaid, SNAP, veterans' benefits, etc.) than to military...

Wholesale prices rose sharply in February, providing another sign that inflation continues to percolate even aside from rising energy prices.The producer price index, a measure of pipeline costs that producers receive for their products, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.7% on the month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, the so-called core PPI increased 0.5%.Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for increases of 0.3% for both measures.For the all-items index, prices rose faster than the 0.5% pace in January. However, the core increase was less than the 0.8% for the prior month.

A generation ago, Poland rationed sugar and flour while its citizens were paid one-tenth what West Germans earned. Today its economy has edged past Switzerland to become the world’s 20th largest with over $1 trillion in annual output. It's a historic leap from the post-communist ruins of 1989-90 to today’s European growth champion that economists say has lessons on how to bring prosperity to ordinary people — and that the Trump administration says should be recognized by Poland’s presence at a summit of the Group of 20 leading economies later this year In 35 years — a little less than...

POZNAN, Poland (AP) — A generation ago, Poland rationed sugar and flour while its citizens were paid one-tenth what West Germans earned. Today, the economy of the country has edged past Switzerland to become the world’s 20th largest with more than $1 trillion in annual output. It’s a historic leap from the post-Communist ruins of 1989-90 to European growth champion, which economists say has lessons on how to bring prosperity to ordinary people — and that the Trump administration says should be recognized by Poland’s presence at a summit of the Group of 20 leading economies later this year. The...

Artificial intelligence adoption could lead to significant job struggles for entry-level workers as companies boost productivity, according to ServiceNow CEO Bill McDermott. McDermott told “Squawk on the Street” on Friday that unemployment for new college graduates “could easily go into the mid-30s in the next couple of years.” Across industries, businesses are slashing costs and cutting jobs with the help of new AI tools. Last month, Block announced plans to cut nearly half its workforce as AI automates more work. Meanwhile, software firm Atlassian, which has seen its stock dive 54% this year on AI disruption fears, said this week...