Posted on 06/05/2025 1:30:29 PM PDT by lasereye
For months, US economic data has shown resilience, with layoffs remaining low and business activity staying steady despite fears over policy uncertainty. But the tide may be shifting. Multiple data points this week have shown signs of slowing as a wide swath of tariffs has been in effect.
On Thursday, weekly filings for unemployment benefits hit their highest level since October 2024, adding to a slew of data showing a cooling economy leading into the Friday morning release of the May jobs report.
Earlier in the week, the Institute for Supply Management's Services PMI registered a reading of 49.9 in May, below the 51.6 seen in April. Readings above 50 for this index indicate an expansion in activity, while readings below 50 indicate contraction. May's data marked just the fourth time the services sector has fallen into contraction in the past five years.
Jefferies US economist Tom Simons wrote in a note to clients that the ISM services data likely reflects "more signs of a pause in activity rather than a steep contraction."
"A broad pause is not a good thing, and the uncertainty that precipitated this pause has not shown any signs of lifting," Simons wrote.
And it's not just one sector pressing pause as tariffs take hold. On Monday, the ISM's manufacturing PMI also showed contraction in May as imports hit their lowest level since 2009, with a wide swath of President Trump's tariffs taking hold.
Economists have reasoned that it's not just the tariffs themselves causing businesses to slow activity. It's the uncertainty of where policy — and eventually the broader economy — is headed in 2025. That includes the labor market: In May, the private sector added 37,000 jobs, the lowest monthly total in more than two years, per ADP data released Wednesday.
(Excerpt) Read more at finance.yahoo.com ...
The correct response by the Fed would be to start cutting interest rates. But it seems Powell is trying to sabotage Trump.
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The mid-term election is looking like a disaster for the GOP at this rate.
Every business owner I know has put plans on hold because of all the uncertainty Trump has created.
I call absolute BS on this.
I have have been recruited more in the last 3 months than I have in the last 2 years, and I am not looking now... was for nearly 2 years under Biden’s disaster.
Economy, is FAR stronger, by far, than it has been since Covid lock downs
Other possible evidence for an economic slowdown and/or recession.
Number Of Zombie Properties Increase In 30 US States
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/number-zombie-properties-increase-30-us-states
“Too Late!” - Trump Blasts Powell After Weakest ADP Jobs Report In Over 2 Years
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/small-business-layoffs-may-lead-weakest-adp-jobs-report-over-2-years
South Florida Emerges As Epicenter Of Housing Weakness
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/south-florida-emerges-epicenter-housing-weaknesse
U.S. Home Sellers Are Sitting on Nearly $700 Billion Worth of Listings, an All-Time High
https://www.redfin.com/news/record-dollar-value-home-listings/
US Jobless Claims Surge To 8 Month Highs
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-jobless-claims-surge-8-month-highs
Yahoo Finance “
worthless rat propaganda every time.
The 10% accross the board tariff is the BEST thing ever.
And the markets are heading up because the economy is booming.
No one wants to work.
In summer I get a dozen high school kids to work. When they go to college they ask for summer hours when back at home.
I have no problem getting help.
Small restaurant.
🖕😁🖕
No reason why you would notice any impact from the tariffs (yet) unless you have to regularly buy imported stuff.
you sound suprised...
ask yourself this. If they were trying to lose the midterms what would they be doing differently?
so am I.. Can’t say I have seen much of a change. I just ordered some brake parts for a car I sold a year ago for a customer, I did the same brake job before selling them the car (they drive alot, rideshare) parts cost me 76 bucks then, 76 bucks today.
same company/same parts/same country of origin. (china)
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