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The US economy may have just entered a recession. According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday, the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July, up from 4.1% in June and from recent lows of 3.4% in April 2023. The increase officially triggered the Sahm Rule — a recession indicator developed by former Fed economist Claudia Sahm — which says that the US economy is in a downturn when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by 0.5% from its 12-month low. The gauge has a perfect track record through at least the last nine...

As 2024 unfolds, ominous signs loom over the economic horizon, with the Druckenmiller Recession Indicator delivering a stark warning. Plummeting to its lowest level since 1999, this indicator, historically associated with economic downturns, is flashing red, raising concerns about the state of the economy. Leading economic indicators have endured a daunting streak, falling for 20 consecutive months. While many have clung to the belief in a recession-proof economy, the latest ISM data paints a different picture. A mere 5.6% of purchasing managers report any growth, mirroring statistics not seen since April 2009.

We have been getting a version of this question lately: Is corporate greed driving inflation? Corporations are taking in record profits. Inflation is at 40 year highs. So could corporations just maybe not raise prices and still be fine and would that stop inflation? There's a lot to unpack there, so today on the show, we investigate the greed thesis. We also look through the metaphorical financial pipes connected to the Federal Reserve to see how last week's decision to raise interest rates will affect many of us, through higher mortgage rates.

Really excellent in depth interview of Robert Barnes covers polls, election history, best indicators of results. It is 40 mins. long; but worth every minute of it. An education that it would take years to get on you own. And best of all he breaks down in detail why Trump is definitely going to win.

In response to recent volatility in the stock market, rising prices (and declining yields) for U.S. Treasury bonds, and difficulties in the trade relationship between the United States and China, some pundits and politicians are forecasting a recession in the U.S., timed to coincide with the 2020 presidential election. The increasing volume of these forecasts is driven partly by partisan hopes that an economic slowdown gives Democrats the best opportunity to defeat President Trump next year. But hopes of this kind do not make for sound economic forecasts. None of the major institutional forecasters is looking ahead to a recession...

The Market's Best Indicator Continues To Work Perfectly Joe Weisenthal April 14, 2012, 7:24 AM This is a chart we've written a ton about over the years. The blue line is the S&P 500. The red line is the inverse of initial jobless claims. For over 5 years, they've moved in virtual lockstep, and they're doing it again. Lately the improvement on initial jobless claims has stalled out, and the rally in the S&P 500 has stalled out. It alone is a good reason to think that fundamentals, not central banks, are what's driving this market.

One of the worst effects of the collapse of media credibility is the current inability of viewers to gain any insight or even discern any clues as to the future direction of the economy. This is a relatively new phenomenon, leaving those who need to plan ahead, with little guidance other than rough guesses. Unemployment rate reports are exposed as little more than expected propaganda. Fortunately there exists a seldom-discussed indicator, unknown to the average entrepreneur, which has over the years proven to be unusually and surprisingly accurate. This indicator involves very little cost, and requires little training to master....

GOLDMAN’S GLOBAL LEADING INDICATOR ROLLS OVER 5 July 2010 by TPC The sharp change in trend in the ECRI’s leading index has been widely reported, however, Goldman Sachs has their own leading indicator and it is exhibiting the same negative trend seen in the ECRI’s leading index. Though the change in trend is alarming it is not a cause for panic as it is coming off of very high levels and is not occurring during a recession (according to Goldman): “Our improved GLI comes at a particularly important time for assessing the cycle. Although our original GLI had not shown...

WATCH OUT: The ECRI Leading Indicators Just Went Negative The Pragmatic Capitalist Jun. 11, 2010, 12:42 PM Via Barrons: The Economic Cycle Research Institute today offered up its view of last week’s “weekly leading indicators,” a closely watched private mailing, today showed a dip in the indicator for the week ended last Friday to 123.2, a decline of 3.5%, in contrast to the 0.3% rise the preceding week. The Institute’s Lakshman Achuthan, however, remarked that “While the plunge in WLI growth to a one-year low assures a significant slowing in U.S. economic growth in the coming months, the recent weakness...

The Market Is Massively Oversold Based On This Indicator Vincent Fernando, CFA May 23, 2010, 10:47 AM Here's one reason to believe that bearishness is getting long in the tooth. Less than 2% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 52-week moving average. Basically the entire market has been creamed and historically this has been a decent trading opportunity. Traders' Narrative:"...a number of significant buying opportunities have been identified in the past after periods of market weakness have caused the percentage of stocks above their 10-day moving averages to drop below 10%.” ... I mentioned the financial and energy sector...

Leading Indicators Fall Sharply To Lowest Level Since Last September Joe Weisenthal and Kamelia Angelova May 21, 2010, 1:32 PM Maybe markets aren't worried about the next Lehman. Maybe they're just worried about the fact that the boom is coming to an end. Independent research firm ECRI says its weekly look at leading indicators continues to pull back sharply, and is now where it was in September 2009. (via PragCap)[snip]

The Stock Market Isn't A Leading Indicator Mike Mish Shedlock Oct 12, 2009 3:20 pm When it comes to recessions, the stock market is only good for hindsight. Inquiring minds are wondering if the stock market is a leading indicator. Consider the following charts: S&P Monthly Chart 1980-1992 Vertical bars on the chart show when recessions began. There were three recession in this period -- starting January 1980, July 1981, and July 1990 -- according to National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions data. The NBER is the official determinant of recessions. Looking at a chart...

Can We Really Trust The Leading Economic Indicators? Thursday, October 08, 2009 Mike Shedlock Leading economic indicators are soaring and inquiring minds are wondering if they signal a strong recovery is in the works. First let's consider the Bullish case from the ECRI. Please consider U.S. recovery 'unlikely to falter' anytime soon-ECRIOct 2 (Reuters) - An index of future U.S. economic growth slipped in the latest week, but its yearly growth rate climbed to a new record high, indicating a smooth recovery in the near-term, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent...

Because of Bloomberg's restrictions, we cannot excerpt their articles -- only post links to articles like this one. However, the article's title pretty much says it all. Housing sales shot up 6.5 percent and the leading economic indicators expanded at an annual rate of 3.6 percent. Of course, Barry and Nancy and Harry and Barney and the rest of the RAT idiots can and will turn things around.

A vast array of physical and biological systems across the earth are being affected by warming temperatures caused by humans, says a new analysis of information not previously assembled all in one spot. The effects on living things include earlier leafing of trees and plants over many regions; movements of species to higher latitudes and altitudes in the northern hemisphere; changes in bird migrations in Europe, North America and Australia; and shifting of the oceans' plankton and fish from cold- to warm-adapted communities. "Humans are influencing climate through increasing greenhouse gas emissions, and the warming world is causing impacts on...

The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent and the lagging index increased 0.5 percent in September. The leading index increased in September, the third increase in the last six months, and these increases and decreases have been alternating and offsetting each other. As a result, the leading index is now at the same level as in March 2007.

The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.5 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent and the lagging index increased 0.2 percent in April.

You read this magazine religiously, watch CNBC while dressing for work, scan the Web for economic reports. You've heard, over and over, about the underlying problems with the U.S. economy -- the paltry investment rate, the yawning current account deficit, the pathetic amount Americans salt away. And you know what the experts are saying: that the U.S. faces a perilous economic future unless we cut back on spending and change our profligate ways. Rest at link. But what if we told you that the doomsayers, while not definitively wrong, aren't seeing the whole picture? What if we told you that...

Oscar Indicators James Hirsen, NewsMax.com The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has announced its choice of host for the 78th Annual Academy Awards. It's one of today's foremost wisecrackers, host of Comedy Central's "The Daily Show" Jon Stewart. Stewart apparently landed the Oscar gig after Billy Crystal turned it down citing scheduling conflicts. In a press release announcing the Academy's selection, Stewart lampooned the fact that he was second fiddle, describing it as "another sad attempt to smoke out Billy Crystal." The comic already has some award show experience under his belt, having served as host for the...

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. consumer spending rose 0.2 percent in October, as expected, driving the personal saving rate into negative territory for the fifth straight month, a government report showed on Thursday. Personal income also rose in October, by 0.4 percent - slightly less than the 0.5 percent increase forecast by Wall Street, the Commerce Department said. That followed an outsized 1.7 percent rise in income in September, which was driven by insurance payments in the wake of hurricanes Katrina and Rita. The department's inflation measure - closely watched by policy-makers at the Federal Reserve - rose just 0.1 percent...