Posted on 05/19/2008 2:37:47 PM PDT by cogitator
A vast array of physical and biological systems across the earth are being affected by warming temperatures caused by humans, says a new analysis of information not previously assembled all in one spot.
The effects on living things include earlier leafing of trees and plants over many regions; movements of species to higher latitudes and altitudes in the northern hemisphere; changes in bird migrations in Europe, North America and Australia; and shifting of the oceans' plankton and fish from cold- to warm-adapted communities.
"Humans are influencing climate through increasing greenhouse gas emissions, and the warming world is causing impacts on physical and biological systems attributable at the global scale," said lead author Cynthia Rosenzweig, a scientist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and the Columbia Center for Climate Systems Research. Both are affiliates of The Earth Institute at Columbia University.
Rosenzweig and researchers from 10 other institutions across the world analyzed data from published papers on 829 physical systems and some 28,800 plant and animal systems, stretching back to 1970. Their analysis of revealed a picture of changes on continental scales; previous studies had looked mainly at single phenomena, or smaller areas. In physical systems, 95% of observed changes are consistent with warming trends.
These include wastage of glaciers on all continents; melting permafrost; earlier spring river runoff; and warming of water bodies. Among living creatures inhabiting such systems, 90% of changes are consistent with warming.
The researchers say it is unlikely that any force but human-influenced climate change could be driving all this; factors like deforestation or natural climate variations could not explain it. Their work builds upon the consensus of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which in 2007 declared manmade climate warming "likely" to have discernible effects on biological and physical systems.
"It was a real challenge to separate the influence of human-caused temperature increases from natural climate variations or other confounding factors, such as land-use changes or pollution," said coauthor David Karoly, a climate scientist at the University of Melbourne in Victoria, Australia.
"This was possible only through the combined efforts of our multi-disciplinary team, which examined observed changes in many different systems around the globe, as well as global climate model simulations of temperature changes."
The data showing the patterns of change are strongest in North America, Asia and Europe--mainly because far more studies have been done there, said Rosenzweig. On the other continents, including South America, Australia and Africa, documentation of changes in physical and biological systems is sparse, even though there is good evidence there of human-influenced warming itself.
The authors say that there is an urgent need to study these environmental systems, especially in tropical and subtropical areas.
Significant changes in physical and biological systems are occurring on all continents and in most oceans, with a concentration of available data in Europe and North America. Most of these changes are in the direction expected with warming temperature. Here we show that these changes in natural systems since at least 1970 are occurring in regions of observed temperature increases, and that these temperature increases at continental scales cannot be explained by natural climate variations alone. Given the conclusions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report that most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely to be due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, and furthermore that it is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent except Antarctica, we conclude that anthropogenic climate change is having a significant impact on physical and biological systems globally and in some continents.
This one.
“The data showing the patterns of change are strongest in North America, Asia and Europe—mainly because far more studies have been done there, said Rosenzweig. On the other continents, including South America, Australia and Africa, documentation of changes in physical and biological systems is sparse, even though there is good evidence there of human-influenced warming itself.”
The real reason for this is there is no indication of increased temps in the southern hemisphere. The temps in the north seemed to have been rising between 1991-2000. This just happens to correspond to the timing when 100s of measuring stations were shut down in Siberia and northern Russia with the fall of the USSR. The fact of the matter is, neither hemisphere is warming. Don’t let people fool you into accepting there is even such a thing as “global warming” at this time. Does the globe warm...? Of course it does. Does it cool? Of course it does.
Is man the cause of any of this? It has not been proven.
‘’Every time a cow farts, another polar bear drowns.’’ - John McCain
No, the main reason is that the NH is 30% ocean, 70% land, and the SH is 70% ocean and 30% land, and the oceans are warming considerably more slowly than land surfaces. And recently there has been an oceanic shift favoring slightly cooler surface ocean conditions in some regions.
And how is that different from the first 4 billion years of this planets existence???? This is so dumb. A mere 15K years ago the great lakes were nothing but a frozen glacier, and we are suppose to be in panic because we have 20 years of warming (which has been followed by 10 years of flat temperatures and expected to be followed by 10 years of cooling)?
A claim which has zero basis by any reasonable scientific method.
That and $3.99 will get you a gallon of gas.
We'll really just have to wait and see if that happens. You're basing the latter on the expectations of the skeptical community; I don't share their optimism, though it'd be pretty darned great if it actually happens.
Believe it or not, though, there are actually people that think there isn't any warming occurring globally because a few weather stations are located near parking lots and air conditioners. Explain that to the birds who show up a week late for their food source during annual migration.
“and the oceans are warming considerably more slowly than land surfaces. And recently there has been an oceanic shift favoring slightly cooler surface ocean conditions in some regions.”
Just create some epicycles in your models to account for the inconvenient facts. That will make everything seem semi-rational.
Seriously, are you one of the people who make a handsome living off the global warming hoax, or do you actually believe in it? Is it your religion? It does seem to be a very popular modern faith.
ping
I think the real reason of this is that there is no such thing as “global temperature”. From a scientific standpoint, can you really get an average temperature from the earth? You run into an infinite boundary when you logically dissect this notion.
The devil is in the details. Climate is not something that can be measured by a thermometer. Think about it. The earth’s atmosphere is better understood today than it has been in our history. But the the fact remains, that we understand more about the interplay between our celestial neighbors in our own solar system than we do about deep ocean currents,the interaction of GHGs in our atmosphere, and know almost nothing about the five bazillion other data sets that make up “climate”.
We may be able to understand what will probably happen in a very precise geographic location in a very restricted time frame and very restricted set of conditions. And even then, we are wrong more than 20% of the time.
You can go on and on for days trying to dissect this absurdity talking about solar winds, recurring weather cycles, non anthropogenic contributors, occean currents and blah de blah de blah. The fact is we know very very little. To think we can draw any reasonable and reliable conclusion about long term climatic trends is just absurd and quite pompous in my own educated opinion. To make policy and restrict modern convenience is mostly suicidal.
The day when they can reverse-test their models, i will listen to them. Until then, its all nonesense being pushed by grant hungry science whores. Albeit sometimes it is dangerous nonesense.
Would it be possible for you to tell us the ideal date and time for birds to arrive at their destinations? And has this always been the time and date on Earth or has it varied perhaps just a tiny bit here and there?
See my profile.
No. But there's a whole lot of studies out there that can explain how migration timing works. Try Google.
“Would it be possible for you to tell us the ideal date and time for birds to arrive at their destinations? And has this always been the time and date on Earth or has it varied perhaps just a tiny bit here and there?”
The purveyors of the global warming insanity love their anecdotes about melting glaciers, polar bears in distress, and migratory birds who are supposedly late. On the other hand, temperatures haven’t risen since 1998, there is an alternative sunspot-cosmic-ray based theory that has been successfully lab-tested, and the physics of the greenhouse gas theory has been refuted by geophysicists. Not to worry; the global warming crowd has the votes, and in a political-religious dispute votes count more than facts.
These GW chicken-little panic mongerers are a hoot! In 1974 these same people were obsessing over global cooling. In any case, their data is faulty at best and more idiotic than "junk science" at worst.
Depending on the source, temperatures have been stable or decreasing over the last three to 9 years. Whateverthecase, the Arctic ice cap is larger this year than any other in recorded history (ice cap measurements go back approximately 200 years), snow levels in the Rocky mountains are WAY above normal, there are 35 egregious errors (or lies) in Gore's movie, current temperatures are significantly below those of the midieval times (a period of unparalleled growth and prosperity), and the litany of data showing the "concern" of the chicken-little panic mongerers is totally and uterly unfounded goes on and on (like this sentence).
Note that as temperatures were rising here on earth in the 80's and 90's, the caps on Mars were also shrinking, proving unequivocally that temperature increases are the result of activity on the sun, something on which mankind has no impact. My SUV makes no difference to temperatures on earth; neither does cow flatus!! The fact is that carbon dioxide DOES increase with temperature, but lags the temperature curve by about 300 years. Temperature causes carbon dioxide, not the opposite. Idiots!
The whole premise of GW requires the suspension of logical thought, or ANY thought, for that matter. It's the same lack of thought required to accept current, ongoing lies, for example, darwinism is more than a badly flawed theory, islamics are open to negotiation, increasing taxes makes more money for the gov't, making everyone defenseless (taking guns away from law-abiding citizens) decreases violent crime, and any number of other easily disproven hypotheses!
There, THAT ought to liven things up a bit!
The oceans are not warming.
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