Posted on 03/04/2025 3:31:12 AM PST by Redmen4ever
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth...in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.8 percent on March 3, down from -1.5 percent on February 28.
(Excerpt) Read more at atlantafed.org ...
As stated at the link, the Blue Chip forecast is for continued modest growth.
The New York Fed model, which seems similar to the Atlanta Fed's "now" model is in line with the Blue Chip forecast.
The Conference Board's index of leading indicators dipped in January (it's latest reading) and has been flat for the past half-year or so.
The AIER index of leading indicators is positive,
What to make of the Atlanta Fed's forecast: it's a bit of information and maybe something to consider, but it's contradicted by the bulk of the information.
My own sense is that we're the Titanic out to set a speed record and there's an iceberg out there called the National Debt.
I’m am sure the Feds are filled with left wing activists like the rest of government that faked Biden numbers.
They are predicting that a change in net exports will plunge the GDP 4% lower. How will a tariff do that when the trade deficit in goods is enormous? This has to be an act of economic sabotage.
Isnt government spending included in GDP? So massive cuts to govt spending would lower GDP? No?
Few pay attention to the revisions. They’re in the past.
After losing the election in November,Some Biden flunky called it “throwing gold bars off the Titanic”.
It’s gonna get worse before it gets better. It could be a clearing event but the “progressives “ beg for a collapse to implement their agenda (expansion of welfare state, income redistribution). People don’t beg for ‘someone to do something’ when things are going well.
Yes indeed. I’ve been in finance 33 years
We have the most overvalued stock market in us history, and we had a federal govt doing massive deficit spending.
We are going to likely get serious deflation, lower interest rates, high unemployment. Stocks and real estate could fall 50%
Yes, it is, but no, that’s not what the components chart is showing is driving the plunge.
It is ridiculous, but government spending (overhead) counts as Gross Domestic Product somehow. Therefore massive deficit spending contributes to GDP. If there is in truth tangibly less government spending due to freezes and cuts, it will be reflected as a lower GDP. Not saying this explains it, but think it is an interesting point. Certainly not how I would expect or want GDP to be calculated. This is part of what makes GDP yet another corrupt government number that is published, IMHO.
We’re talking about a new management team walking into a corrupt bankrupt operation and pulling off the world’s biggest turnaround.
There will be pain. But better and poetic that the pain be mostly on those who designed it for the rest of us.
My every day evening walk includes a large upscale mall and two major grocery stores.
Foot traffic has been conspicuously below normal since Christmas.
Some of that decline could be on line shopping and home delivery.
Possibly, illegal immigrants (we have many) are also cutting back on public exposure.
Regardless, the economy in my small part of metro Seattle looks like it is in trouble.
That’s WHY you voted for Trump and that’s why he’s cutting and slashing.
Didn’t get the memo? :)
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