Free Republic

I have been brooding for days about a story in the Daily Mail that offers an expert’s prediction about who will win in 2024, based on his analysis of past election data: He’s calling it for Joe Biden. Normally, Allan Lichtman is worth taking seriously because he’s predicted the popular vote winner every year since 1984. However, 2024 is an anomalous year, and I think (and hope) that this year, he misunderstands the operative facts. According to the Daily Mail:A historian who has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984 has declared that 'a lot would have to go wrong'...

The United Nations warned Wednesday hot weather will be dominating the months ahead, driving “higher global temperatures and possibly new heat records.” The U.N.’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) delivered the grim forecast from its base in Geneva, Switzerland. It said it now estimated there was a 60 percent chance that El Nino would develop by the end of July and an 80 percent chance it would do so by the end of September. It was the second WMO forecast of hot weather ahead following one made last month.

Back in July, Bank of America hired Michael Gapen as its chief U.S. economist, and the former Barclays exec began his tenure with a gutsy call, arguing a “mild recession” would hit the U.S. by the end of the year. Before Gapen’s hiring, Bank of America’s economists had refrained from using the R-word, even if many of their peers weren’t so shy. But Gapen highlighted weaker-than-expected services spending, fading fiscal support, persistent inflation, and rising interest rates as his evidence for a more bearish outlook. On Friday, however, Gapen and his team of economists said the situation has changed over...

A week or so ago a FReeper fired up a post predicting a Labor Day weekend potent hurricane for the GOM (Gulf of Mexico). Well lo and behold there's a system out east that the NHC is forecasting/hyping to be near the US just in time. There's also a 'disturbance' about the depart the west coast of Africa on the tails of the first one. Just in time for September, eh?

Before the plunge in commodities late in the week, top executives from Cargill, Cofco, Viterra, and Scoular said this week at the FT Commodities Global Summit that a “mini-supercycle” in agricultural commodities could be on the horizon, boosted by China demand and increasing use for biofuels. These execs forecasted corn, soybeans, and wheat markets will remain robust over the next two to four years. “We certainly see a mini supercycle,” said David Mattiske, chief executive of Viterra, majority-owned by Glencore, told the FT Commodities Global Summit. “We’re in a demand-driven environment with the themes of a growing population, growing wealth,...

To say that last year was a game-changer seems silly really. It was revealing. For many who don’t follow the financial world, it revealed the incurable monetary problems in the Western led financial system. For many who don’t follow politics, it revealed the deep state, as from country to country the people’s will was overturned by vested interests. For many who don’t follow big business, it revealed silicon valley for what it is. A cesspool of Marxist, power hungry technocrats with maniacal tendencies. What last year was more than anything else, was an accelerant for many of the underlying trends...

7 Predictions: How 2020 comes to an End Daniel Bobinski, M.Ed. is a certified behavioral analyst, best-selling author, corporate trainer, executive coach, and columnist. He’s also a veteran and a self-described Christian Libertarian who believes in the principles of free market capitalism – while standing firmly against crony capitalism. For more great journalism, go to undercover.com America is at a crossroads with revolution on our doorstep. On one side are the Patriots; those who seek to preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution. On the other side are Marxist insurrectionists; those who believe that America is evil and the cause of...

There is this website https://deagel.com/forecast that projects the population and GDP for 2025. The population of USA has dropped to 99M and the GDP has dropped to 1.63 T. Does this website know something we don't?

NOAA released its official winter outlook Thursday morning, predicting a higher probability for above average temperatures across much of the country, and above average precipitation for much of the Upper Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes. Forecasters say that even though colder than average temperatures are not favored, there will likely be some areas that end up with temperatures below average for the winter season (December-February). The El Niño Southern Oscillation often times influences our winter weather here in the United States, however forecasters with NOAA say we are currently in neutral conditions (neither El Niño or La Niña are present)...

The Fed now expects GDP to grow at a 2.2% pace for 2019, versus the 2.1% forecast in June.The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 3.7% this year, slightly above the 3.6% projection in June. The Federal Reserve dialed up its growth expectations slightly while keeping its inflation projection unchanged, according to its Summary of Economic Projections.Source: Federal ReserveThe central bank now expects GDP to grow at a 2.2% pace for 2019, versus the 2.1% forecast in June. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 3.7% this year, slightly above the 3.6% projection in June.The GDP outlook for 2020...

American spy chiefs are offering $250,000 in prize money for a competition that will test how successfully someone can predict future unknowns such as political election results or missile tests. The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity [IARPA], which sits within the office of America’s top intelligence official, is behind the challenge, which is designed to improve forecasting techniques. Participants will be asked more than 300 questions about the outcomes of various issues across a nine-month period. The winner will collect $153,000, with smaller prizes to runner-ups. Sample questions listed include “Which political party will win the most seats during the...

He promised spring was right around the corner, but it appears that Punxsutawney Phil has lied. On Feb. 2, Phil announced to the awaiting crowd that there was going to be an early spring. It was one of a handful of times the weather prognosticating rodent didn’t see his shadow and the first since 2016. But the cheers of a soon-to-be spring have transitioned to the sounds of teeth chattering and shovels picking up snow. The Delaware County sheriff in Indiana says Phil is a wanted groundhog for crimes and acts against nature, WTHR reported.

The Wxrisk.com site is run by a local meteorologist in Virginia, Dave Tolleris, aka "DT". He does commercial forecasting for clients, with his 'products' being European Grain and Energy weather... Overseas (China Ukraine Russia India) Daily weather... Overseas weekly and 30 day reviews... US Grain forecasts... HDD and CDD forecasts...30 day forecasts... South America daily weather... 6-10 day and 11-15 energy forecasts... The Winter storm newsletter. DT contributes to the community with non-commercial forecasting for our local weather with his famous (because they're accurate!) snow forecasts and pointing out when it would be wise to pay attention to the weather...

The four decades since 2016 have seen a breathtaking restoration of the Republic of the United States of America.  Looking back from 2056, the historians and pundits say it was inevitable. The United States had enormous energy resources, an educated and ethical workforce, a history of entrepreneurial spirit. The fruits of the digital industrial age, genome processing, and robotic development were on the edge of explosion. The resurgence back from the malaise and blame America thinking of the Obama administration was certain to happen, with a wealthy, prosperous, powerful and free America the obvious result. It wasn't that way....

Election Forecasting Guru Allan Lichtman Predicts Donald Trump Will Win 2016 Election VIDEO

A professor of political science at Stony Brook University has forecasted that Donald Trump has a minimum 97 percent chance of winning the general election as the Republican nominee. Professor Helmut Norpoth’s forecast presentation took place Monday evening in the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan, which was organized by the Stony Brook Alumni Association. Norpoth created a statistical model of presidential elections that uses a candidate’s performance in their party’s primary and patterns in the electoral cycle as predictors of the presidential vote in the general election. Donald Trump has a 97 percent chance of defeating Hillary Clinton and a...

President Obama – who graduated Columbia University with a degree in political science – became an environmental and ecological expert Monday night in time to decry America’s contributions to global warming and the alleged melting of Arctic ice caps at this year’s GLACIER Conference, predicting a dire future for humanity. [Snip] Overall, the speech painted a fairly doom-and-gloom outlook for America and the rest of the world. So if you’re a Doomsday Prepper, here are a few excerpts from the president's speech explaining the climate-related disasters heading to a town near you:


National Weather Service experts misjudged the path and impact of the blizzard that struck the Northeast on Monday and Tuesday, in large part because they trusted the wrong forecasting model, several independent meteorologists said. Rather than rely on their own forecasting system—upgraded in recent weeks—the federal experts placed their faith instead on a well-regarded European computer model that predicted the worst of this storm would squarely hit New York City. That system earlier had outperformed the U.S. forecasting system in predicting the path of superstorm Sandy. This time, the European forecasting model was wrong, several commercial forecasters said. That model,...

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. Forecast Prior Observation Consensus Week of September 1 September 1 Labor Day September 2 Markit PMI Manufacturing Index - August 57.5 55.8 57.8 ISM (Mfg) - August 57.1 57.1 56.8 ISM Prices 58.0 59.5 58.0 Construction Spending - July 0.8% -1.8 0.9 September 3 Auto Sales* - August 16.60M 16.48 16.60 Car Sales 8.00 8.00 Truck Sales 8.60 8.49 *SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence ADP Employment Report - August 120K 218 223 Factory Orders - June 11.1% 1.6 10.9 Durable Goods Orders Nondurable Goods Orders September 4 Initial Unemployment Claims 302K...

One of the Obama administration's major selling points in passing the Affordable Care Act in 2010 was a Congressional Budget Office forecast that the controversial legislation would reduce the deficit by more than $120 billion over the coming decade. The CBO has consistently projected that President Obama's overhaul will reduce the deficit, and the agency estimated that the Republicans’ 2011 effort to repeal the legislation would increase deficits by $210 billion from 2010 to 2021. In April, the agency quietly signaled that it can no longer make that projection; that the law had been changed and delayed so much that...