Posted on 08/29/2022 5:42:30 AM PDT by Blueflag
A week or so ago a FReeper fired up a post predicting a Labor Day weekend potent hurricane for the GOM (Gulf of Mexico). Well lo and behold there's a system out east that the NHC is forecasting/hyping to be near the US just in time. There's also a 'disturbance' about the depart the west coast of Africa on the tails of the first one.
Just in time for September, eh?
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2
If linky no workee, read this —
1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic
is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers.
Although environmental conditions are only marginally favorable,
some gradual development of this system is expected over the next
several days and a tropical depression is likely to form later this
week. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the west
and then west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph, toward the adjacent waters
of the northern Leeward Islands. Additional information on this
system can be found in high seas forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Hurricanes appearing during hurricane season. Maybe that’s why they named it that.
Umm... hurricanes form in the Atlantic. September is the peak of hurricane season. Why is this news?
Considering that we have not had a tropical depression in the month of August, it would not be a surprise to see September become far more active.
IKR?
September is almost always the keynote speech. South FL would disagree though (Andrew).
I really kinda posted this as a vanity since the seminal post on this topic got the poster pilloried. It was kinda poorly sourced, but perhaps prescient.
It’s not technically news, it’s a vanity. See title. It’s also in chat
Somebody turned the Rove Weather Machine back on!
I meant the initial breathless reporting. Even the high-confidence models have it spinning out to sea. It makes no sense to me that we’re clutching pearls over 10 days prior to a specific date about a storm that hadn’t yet formed and over weather conditions we really can’t control.
I can predict a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico over Labor Day weekend and be right 80% of the time.
I live on the Gulf Coast. I know.
I’m really concerned that there haven’t been any major storms this year. This is obviously a harbinger of climate change catastrophe.
Models curve it into the Atlantic:
https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_91.gif
Indeed. I think that’s why the post from last week got firebombed.
NOAA and NHC *HAS* to toe the line on critical climate change theory, so they will forecast as many “dangerous” storms as early as ‘plausible.’
Sure did. About 72 hours early though. Just 29 August.
With womyn of color, children and LGBTQs affected most!
Won’t stop the Weather Channel from reserving hotel rooms in Elizabeth City though ;-)
This will be my first September in hurricane country instead of the desert or Tornado alley.
Interesting. I looked prior to 0800 and the RED one on the 5-day was still orange, and there was nothing noted in the southern GOM like that 5-day.
I guess they had an early staff meeting and the big boss told the nerds “GET ME A STORM FORECAST for the WEEKEND, OR I WILL FIND SOMEONE WHO WILL!”
August 2022 was only the 3rd time in 61 years that August has not seen a hurricane. I would expect that to change and soon.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
