https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2
If linky no workee, read this —
1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic
is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers.
Although environmental conditions are only marginally favorable,
some gradual development of this system is expected over the next
several days and a tropical depression is likely to form later this
week. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the west
and then west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph, toward the adjacent waters
of the northern Leeward Islands. Additional information on this
system can be found in high seas forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Hurricanes appearing during hurricane season. Maybe that’s why they named it that.
Umm... hurricanes form in the Atlantic. September is the peak of hurricane season. Why is this news?
Considering that we have not had a tropical depression in the month of August, it would not be a surprise to see September become far more active.
Somebody turned the Rove Weather Machine back on!
I can predict a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico over Labor Day weekend and be right 80% of the time.
I live on the Gulf Coast. I know.
August 2022 was only the 3rd time in 61 years that August has not seen a hurricane. I would expect that to change and soon.
You might want to see if you can loosen your tinfoil hat.
At the time of the post, I went to the Microsoft Weather and checked out the radar. There were in fact several green patches off the west African coast. This morning the green is much more extensive.
So, there is weather building that seasonally results in a hurricane
No hurricanes? No problem. We do miss the musings of NautiNurse however.
Prepper ping.
No time like the present to get ready for it. Beats waiting until you are in the teeth of the storm to head out for water, milk, eggs, and bread.
And find out there’s none.
Current la niña conditions tend to lead to active Fall Atlantic hurricane seasons. The quiet season of the last few months may come to an end due to weather conditions in the Pacific.
My favorite “Emotional Weather Report” by Tom Waits...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6c5YNPDp8Ww
Excerpt...
With tornado watches issued shortly
Before noon Sunday, for the areas including
The western region of my mental health
And the northern portions of my
Ability to deal rationally with my
Disconcerted precarious emotional situation
Flash flood watches covered the
Southern portion of my disposition
There was no severe weather well
Into the afternoon
Except for a lone gust of wind in the bedroom
And a weak pressure ridge extending from
My eyes down to my cheeks cause since you left me baby
And put the vice grips on my mental health
Well the extended outlook for an indefinite period of time until you
Come back to me baby
Is high tonight, low tomorrow,
and precipitation is expected
Chat and discussion:
This has to be the longest summer of my nearly 7 decades. It started early and won’t go away. When I stepped out this morning early it was already over 80 and the air was heavy sticky. No rain to speak of for the whole summer. The ground is just dust for feet.
Before every hurricane season, the NHC and others put out their hurricane forecast. As long as I can remember, every year is “above average” due to the ravages of climate change. The only way they even get close to their number is to name a storm that goes ashore the next day as some black clouds and a gust of wind. As an aside, what do we pay the morons at the NHC to do for most of the year?
I hope it’s much ado over nothing. I want to enjoy my trip to the Panhandle this year. Last year was a complete bust.
I’ve been viewing the models. Lately, the forecast consistently puts this major hurricane on a course to hit on or near the Texas/Mexico border, with the latest one I saw yesterday seeming to have it hit Brownsville, just like Allen in 1980.