Free Republic

The Federal Reserve delivered an unexpected blow to hopes for lower borrowing costs in the future, projecting higher inflation and higher interest rates in updated forecasts released Wednesday. While policymakers left their benchmark rate unchanged and signaled that they may cut in the second half of this year, forecasts of officials showed they expect fewer cuts next year and the year after that. The central bank held the federal funds target at 4.25 to 4.50 percent, its level since the December rate cut. But the accompanying economic projections revealed rising concern that inflation is not receding fast enough—and that rates...

These days, it seems that a mysterious group called “the CBO” rules the world. Or at least Washington. Unfortunately, they’re not very good at predicting things and their bad calls can lead to bad policy results. The Congressional Budget Office and the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) predict what will happen with spending, tax revenues and deficits from new bills and congressional budgets. They have made headlines of late with their absurd warning that the Trump tax bill to extend the 2017 tax cuts and other reforms, like eliminating taxes on tips, would add some $4.6 trillion to the debt...

Confidence is growing that a more active than average Atlantic hurricane season is about to begin in just over a week. NOAA is now forecasting a 6-in-10 chance of an above-average hurricane season. By The Numbers: NOAA expects 13 to 19 storms to form in 2025, six to 10 of which will become hurricanes and three to five of which will reach Category 3 status or stronger, according to the outlook released Thursday. These ranges are on the high side of the 30-year average for both hurricanes and storms. The range for the number of hurricanes is slightly shy of...

(NEXSTAR) — It may be hard to think about sweltering temperatures in early March, but the National Weather Service (NWS) is already rolling out changes to the weather alerts used to inform the public of the dangers of impending heat. Americans may be familiar with “Excessive Heat Watches” and “Excessive Heat Warnings,” issued when potentially dangerous heat conditions are in the forecast. Starting this month, those alerts will be no more — sort of. Like it did with wind chill alerts in fall, the NWS is adjusting the names of its heat watch and warning alert. Instead, dangerous heat conditions...

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth...in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.8 percent on March 3, down from -1.5 percent on February 28.

New Hampshire is now a tossup state after leaning toward Vice President Kamala Harris, RealClearPolitics forecasted on Thursday. The forecast suggests former President Donald Trump is expanding his path to victory by challenging Harris in a state that political experts expect the vice president to win. The same is not true for Harris, who does not seem to be making any inroads into solid red states: The shift came after New Hampshire Journal/Praecones Analytica released a poll showing Trump leading Harris by 0.4 points (50.2- 49.8 percent). “There’s a reason Kamala Harris has been spending money in New Hampshire. She’s...

Several election forecast models have shifted in favor of former President Donald Trump winning the upcoming presidential election over Vice President Kamala Harris. FiveThirtyEight, polling expert Nate Silver, J.L. Partners, Decision Desk HQ, and the Hill released election forecast results from their models, which found that Trump’s chances of winning the upcoming election were greater than Harris’s. In a Decision Desk HQ/the Hill election forecast, the model found that Trump had a 52 percent chance of winning the election, while Harris held a 42 percent chance of winning the election.

Former President Donald Trump is now leading Vice President Kamala Harris for the first time in an election forecast, a poll released Sunday shows. The news was contained in a Decision Desk HQ/The Hill election forecast for this cycle. The model predicts Trump has a 52 percent chance of reclaiming the presidency while Harris has a 42 percent chance of entering the White House, as of Sunday. A report in the Hill sets out the change in prospects for the two protagonists:

Victory is not enough, it must be absolutely decisive victory

A 2024 presidential election forecast from statistician Nate Silver on Tuesday shows that former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning are 13 percent higher than Vice President Kamala Harris’s nationally. According to Silver’s forecast, Trump’s chance of winning the election is 56.7 percent — the highest since July 31 — while Harris’s chance of winning is 43 percent. Latest @NateSilver538 forecast (9/3) Chance of winning Trump: 56.7% (highest since 7/31) Harris: 43.0% —— Swing States: chance of winning Pennsylvania – 🔴 Trump 57-43% Georgia – 🔴 Trump 64-36% Arizona – 🔴 Trump 67-33% North Carolina – 🔴 Trump 70-30% Nevada...

I have been brooding for days about a story in the Daily Mail that offers an expert’s prediction about who will win in 2024, based on his analysis of past election data: He’s calling it for Joe Biden. Normally, Allan Lichtman is worth taking seriously because he’s predicted the popular vote winner every year since 1984. However, 2024 is an anomalous year, and I think (and hope) that this year, he misunderstands the operative facts. According to the Daily Mail:A historian who has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984 has declared that 'a lot would have to go wrong'...

The United Nations warned Wednesday hot weather will be dominating the months ahead, driving “higher global temperatures and possibly new heat records.” The U.N.’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) delivered the grim forecast from its base in Geneva, Switzerland. It said it now estimated there was a 60 percent chance that El Nino would develop by the end of July and an 80 percent chance it would do so by the end of September. It was the second WMO forecast of hot weather ahead following one made last month.

Back in July, Bank of America hired Michael Gapen as its chief U.S. economist, and the former Barclays exec began his tenure with a gutsy call, arguing a “mild recession” would hit the U.S. by the end of the year. Before Gapen’s hiring, Bank of America’s economists had refrained from using the R-word, even if many of their peers weren’t so shy. But Gapen highlighted weaker-than-expected services spending, fading fiscal support, persistent inflation, and rising interest rates as his evidence for a more bearish outlook. On Friday, however, Gapen and his team of economists said the situation has changed over...

A week or so ago a FReeper fired up a post predicting a Labor Day weekend potent hurricane for the GOM (Gulf of Mexico). Well lo and behold there's a system out east that the NHC is forecasting/hyping to be near the US just in time. There's also a 'disturbance' about the depart the west coast of Africa on the tails of the first one. Just in time for September, eh?

Before the plunge in commodities late in the week, top executives from Cargill, Cofco, Viterra, and Scoular said this week at the FT Commodities Global Summit that a “mini-supercycle” in agricultural commodities could be on the horizon, boosted by China demand and increasing use for biofuels. These execs forecasted corn, soybeans, and wheat markets will remain robust over the next two to four years. “We certainly see a mini supercycle,” said David Mattiske, chief executive of Viterra, majority-owned by Glencore, told the FT Commodities Global Summit. “We’re in a demand-driven environment with the themes of a growing population, growing wealth,...

To say that last year was a game-changer seems silly really. It was revealing. For many who don’t follow the financial world, it revealed the incurable monetary problems in the Western led financial system. For many who don’t follow politics, it revealed the deep state, as from country to country the people’s will was overturned by vested interests. For many who don’t follow big business, it revealed silicon valley for what it is. A cesspool of Marxist, power hungry technocrats with maniacal tendencies. What last year was more than anything else, was an accelerant for many of the underlying trends...

7 Predictions: How 2020 comes to an End Daniel Bobinski, M.Ed. is a certified behavioral analyst, best-selling author, corporate trainer, executive coach, and columnist. He’s also a veteran and a self-described Christian Libertarian who believes in the principles of free market capitalism – while standing firmly against crony capitalism. For more great journalism, go to undercover.com America is at a crossroads with revolution on our doorstep. On one side are the Patriots; those who seek to preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution. On the other side are Marxist insurrectionists; those who believe that America is evil and the cause of...

There is this website https://deagel.com/forecast that projects the population and GDP for 2025. The population of USA has dropped to 99M and the GDP has dropped to 1.63 T. Does this website know something we don't?

NOAA released its official winter outlook Thursday morning, predicting a higher probability for above average temperatures across much of the country, and above average precipitation for much of the Upper Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes. Forecasters say that even though colder than average temperatures are not favored, there will likely be some areas that end up with temperatures below average for the winter season (December-February). The El Niño Southern Oscillation often times influences our winter weather here in the United States, however forecasters with NOAA say we are currently in neutral conditions (neither El Niño or La Niña are present)...

The Fed now expects GDP to grow at a 2.2% pace for 2019, versus the 2.1% forecast in June.The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 3.7% this year, slightly above the 3.6% projection in June. The Federal Reserve dialed up its growth expectations slightly while keeping its inflation projection unchanged, according to its Summary of Economic Projections.Source: Federal ReserveThe central bank now expects GDP to grow at a 2.2% pace for 2019, versus the 2.1% forecast in June. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 3.7% this year, slightly above the 3.6% projection in June.The GDP outlook for 2020...