Free Republic

Russian Main Effort: Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1

Russian objective: Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City.

Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast on October 13 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked northeast of Kharkiv City near Vovchansk and Synelnykove on October 12 and 13.[26] A Russian milblogger reportedly affiliated with the Russian Northern Grouping of Forces claimed that counterattacked in Vovchansk.[27]

Ukraine’s Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor’s Office reported on October 13 that Russian forces conducted a first-person view (FPV) drone strike against a school dormitory in Kyivskyi Raion, Kharkiv City.[28] Ukrainian news outlet Suspline reported that the strike was the first Russian FPV strike against central Kharkiv City.[29] The deputy general director of a Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) equipment manufacturer and Ukrainian Air Force reserve officer, Anatoliy Khrapchinskyi, reported to Suspline that Russian forces may have used a mothership drone to carry the FPV drone about 10 to 20 kilometers away from the target. Khrapchinskyi stated that Russian forces may have used an FPV drone with about 2.5 kilograms of explosives. Khrapchinskyi assessed that the strike was part of Russia’s terror tactics and efforts to increase the “kill zone” (an area immediately near the frontline where a mass of tactical strike and reconnaissance drones pose an elevated risk to any equipment or personnel that enters the area) since Russian forces are too far away to use traditional tube artillery or mortars against Kharkiv City.

Order of Battle: Elements of the Chechen Zapad-Akhmat Battalion and the Russian 128th Motorized Rifle Brigade (44th Army Corps [AC], Leningrad Military District [LMD]) are reportedly operating in Kharkiv Oblast.[30]

Russian forces continued offensive operations northeast of Velykyi Burluk near Khatnie and Milove and southeast of Velykyi Burluk near Bolohivka on October 13 but did not advance.

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2

Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kupyansk direction on October 13 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked near Kupyansk itself; northeast of Kupyansk near Novovasylivka and Kamyanka and toward Dvorichanske and Kolodyazne; north of Kupyansk near Zapadne and toward Kutkivka; east of Kupyansk near Petropavlivka; and southeast of Kupyansk near Pishchane and Stepova Novoselivka on October 12 and 13.[31] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Radkivka (north of Kupyansk).[32]

Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian Tiger drone detachment of the 272nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (47th Tank Division, 1st Guards Tank Army [GTA], Moscow Military District [MMD]) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions near Pishchane.[33]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Borova direction on October 13 but did not make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on October 13 that Russian forces seized Borivska-Andriivka (northeast of Borova).[34]

Russian forces attacked northeast of Borova near Zelenyi Hai and southeast of Borova near Hrekivka on October 12 and 13.[35]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Lyman direction on October 13 but did not make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced east of Drobysheve (northwest of Lyman); north of Stavky (north of Lyman); south of Kolodyazi (northeast of Lyman); west, south, and southwest of Zarichne (east of Lyman); and in central Yampil (southeast of Lyman).[36]

Russian forces attacked toward Lyman itself; northwest of Lyman near Drobysheve, Novoselivka, and Shandryholove; north of Lyman near Novomykhailivka; northeast of Lyman near Kolodyazi and Myrne; east of Lyman near Torske; and southeast of Lyman near Yampil on October 12 and 13.[37]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3

Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas, and advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Siversk direction on October 13 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked near Siversk, northeast of Siversk near Serebryanka, and southeast of Siversk near Vyimka on October 12 and 13.[38]

A Ukrainian non-commissioned officer (NCO) of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Siversk direction reported on October 13 that Russian forces recently conducted rotations, resupplied forces in the area, and are accumulating personnel and equipment in the rear, likely in preparation for a possible mechanized assault.[39] The NCO reported that the Russian military command recently deployed 500 servicemembers to the area from training grounds. The NCO added that Russian forces are trying to reduce the “kill zone” (an area immediately near the frontline where a mass of tactical strike and reconnaissance drones pose an elevated risk to any equipment or personnel that enters the area), including by using infiltration tactics to reach the frontline faster.

A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces recently struck a railway overpass in the northern outskirts of Siversk with a VT-40 fiber optic first-person view (FPV) drone.[40]

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

Assessed Ukrainian advances: Geolocated footage published on October 11 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the northern outskirts of Shcherbynivka (south of Kostyantynivka).[41]

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed on October 13 that Russian forces advanced southeast of Novomarkove (northeast of Kostyantynivka).[42] Geolocated footage published on October 13 shows Ukrainian forces striking a Russian servicemember moving along the Severskyi Donets-Donbas Canal southeast of Novomarkove after what ISW assesses was a Russian infiltration mission.[43] ISW assesses that this event did not advance the forward edge of the battle area (FEBA). The Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced in the area based on the infiltration mission.

Russian forces attacked near Kostyantynivka itself; east of Kostyantynivka near Stupochky and Predtechyne; southeast of Kostyantynivka near Pleshchiivka; south of Kostyantynivka near Shcherbynivka and Oleksandro-Shultyne and toward Berestok; south of Druzhkivka near Rusyn Yar and Poltavka and toward Mykolaipillya; and southwest of Druzhkivka near Volodymyrivka on October 12 and 13.[44]

A Russian milblogger claimed on October 13 that Russian forces conducted an FAB-3000 glide bomb strike against Ukrainian forces in Kostyantynivka.[45]

Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 54th Motorized Rifle Regiment (6th Motorized Rifle Division, 3rd Army Corps [AC], reportedly under operational control of the Southern Grouping of Forces) are striking Ukrainian forces in Shcherbynivka.[46] Drone operators of the 1194th Motorized Rifle Regiment (4th Motorized Rifle Brigade, 3rd Combined Arms Army [CAA], formerly 2nd Luhansk People’s Republic [LNR] AC, Southern Military District [SMD]) and the Chechen 78th Sever-Akhmat Motorized Rifle Regiment (42nd Motorized Rifle Division, 58th CAA, SMD) are striking Ukrainian forces near Ivanopillya (southeast of Kostyantynivka).[47] Elements of the 103rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (150th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th CAA, SMD) are reportedly operating in the southern Kostyantynivka direction.[48] Drone operators of the Russian 33rd and 255th motorized rifle regiments (both of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th CAA) are reportedly striking Ukrainian forces in the Kostyantynivka direction.[49]

Russian forces recently advanced in the Dobropillya tactical area.

Assessed Russian advances: Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated that Russian forces seized Dorozhnie (southeast of Dobropillya).[50]

Mashovets stated that the Russian military command committed unspecified naval infantry elements, which were previously operating near Poltavka and Popiv Yar (both east of Dobropillya in the Russian near rear), into battle near Volodymyrivka (east of Dobropillya on the west bank of the Kazennyi Torets River) in order to support elements of the 51st CAA (formerly 1st Donetsk People’s Republic [DNR] AC, SMD) operating within the Dobropillya salient.[51] Mashovets stated that some naval infantry elements in the area are contending with “exhausting” Ukrainian counterattacks.[52] Mashovets assessed that Russian command structures, especially on the adjacent flanks of the 8th CAA (SMD) and 51st CAA between the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka and Dobropillya tactical areas, are cooperating poorly. Mashovets stated that Russian forces — likely elements of the 114th and 132nd motorized rifle brigades (both of the 51st CAA) — are trying to accumulate assault groups near Dorozhnie and in the area between Ivanivka and Nove Shakhove (both just north of Dorozhnie).[53]

Russian forces attacked southeast of Dobropillya near Zapovidne; east of Dobropillya near Shakhove; and northeast of Dobropillya near Zolotyi Kolodyaz and Kucheriv Yar on October 12 and 13.[54]

Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 80th Sparta Reconnaissance Battalion (51st CAA) are reportedly striking Ukrainian forces near Shakhove.[55]

Russian forces recently marginally advanced in the Pokrovsk direction.

Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on October 13 indicates that Russian forces recently marginally advanced southwest of Mykhailivka (east of Pokrovsk).[56]

Unconfirmed claims: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces seized Molodetske (southwest of Pokrovsk) and advanced in southern Novopavlivka (south of Pokrovsk).[57] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces entered eastern Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk).[58]

Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Pokrovsk itself; north of Pokrovsk near Rodynske and toward Bilytske; northeast of Pokrovsk near Krasnyi Lyman and Novoekonomichne; east of Pokrovsk near Myrnohrad, Balahan Myrolyubivka, and Promin; southeast of Pokrovsk near Lysivka; and southwest of Pokrovsk near Zvirove, Kotlyne, Udachne, Molodetske on October 12 and 13.[59]

Mashovets stated that small Russian infantry groups maintain positions along the railway north of Rodynske.[60] Mashovets stated that Ukrainian forces started counterattacking in the Rodynske-Razine direction (north to northeast of Pokrovsk), likely in part causing Russian forces to significantly reduce their activity west of the Kazennyi Torets River.[61] A commander within a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Pokrovsk direction reported that Russian forces have started to use heavy equipment recently, but are still mostly attacking with infantry.[62] The commander stated that Ukrainian forces are taking Russian prisoners of war (POWs) who were still in Russia only two weeks prior, and that the training levels of Russian personnel in the area vary. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces have fire control over western Pokrovsk.[63] A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces maintain positions near Promin and that earlier claims that Russian forces seized Rodynske are unconfirmed.[64] The milblogger claimed that Russian drone operators are consistently disrupting Ukrainian logistics on the approaches to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.

Order of Battle: Mashovets stated that elements of the Russian 5th and 9th motorized rifle brigades (both of the 51st CAA, SMD), with support from elements of the 1st Slovyansk Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st CAA), are accumulating forces near Novoekonomichne and Mykolaivka (just east of Novoekonomichne) while simultaneously attacking from Mykolaivka.[65] Mashovets stated that elements of the 1st, 5th, and 110th motorized rifle brigades (all three of the 51st CAA) operating in the Sukhetske-Rodynske and Fedorivka-Krasnyi Lyman directions (all northeast of Pokrovsk) had to temporarily halt their attacks as Ukrainian forces had started to actively counterattack in the past few days in the Krasnyi Lyman direction.

Russian forces recently advanced in the Novopavlivka direction.

Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on October 12 and 13 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced northwest of Kotlyarivka (east of Novopavlivka) and north of Novoukrainka (south of Novopavlivka).[66]

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced east of Ivanivka (southwest of Novopavlivka).[67]

Russian forces attacked toward Novopavlivka itself; northeast of Novopavlivka near Novoserhiivka; east of Novopavlivka near Kotlyarivka; southeast of Novopavlivka near Horikhove; south of Novopavlivka near Yalta and Dachne; and southwest of Novopavlivka near Ivanivka on October 12 and 13.[68]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Velykomykhailivka direction on October 13 but did not make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced northwest and southwest of Verbove (southwest of Velykomykhailivka).[69]

Russian forces attacked east of Velykomykhailivka near Oleksandrohrad and Sicheneve; southeast of Velykomykhailivka near Sosnivka and Vorone; south of Velykomykhailivka near Stepove; and southwest of Velykomykhailivka near Verbove and Oleksiivka on October 12 and 13.[70] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Oleksiivka.[71]

Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 36th Motorized Rifle Brigade (29th CAA, Eastern Military District [EMD]) and 14th Spetsnaz Brigade (Russian General Staff’s Main Directorate [GRU]) are reportedly striking Ukrainian forces in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.[73]