CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
UPCOMING -
- No Kings 2.0, 18 October 2025
***
Protests continue at ICE facilities in Portland, Chicago and elsewhere, but with limited turnout and acts of violence. It may be too early to tell, but the failure of Antifa to gain traction over the weekend is a serous blow to their efforts to shut down immigration activities. I still expect them to try to regroup for another round this weekend.
Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.
***
According to the Office of Director of National Intelligence’s (ODNI) National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC), Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) urged supporters in the U.S. to conduct attacks on individuals or organizations that support Israel, law enforcement, and government officials. AQAP highlighted large protests and civil disturbances as good opportunities for supporters to conduct terror attacks.
OBSERVATION - There have been some commentators that appear to have taken this warning to the next level and are pushing a narrative of its gonna happen very soon. These threats have been very regular over the years, with no action. However, it only takes a moment of lowering one’s defenses for them to strike, so be alert out there. They will infiltrate protests and launch attacks from under that cover.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
Even as homebuilders set a decade-high pace for new construction during the pandemic, the U.S. housing shortage continues to grow.
Zillow reported that 8.1 million households shared homes with nonrelatives in 2023, while just 3.4 million units were for sale or rent. The housing deficit hit 4.7 million homes in 2023, up from 4.5 million in 2022 and 4.3 million in 2021. This marks a three-year climb following the pandemic construction surge.
According to a national survey released in January, U.S. mayors from 120 cities in 43 states estimated the country has a 4 million to 7 million home shortage. Over half of those mayors expect their city to lack 5,000 to 20,000 units in the next five years.
Mayors warn that the housing deficit could grow by another 2 million units over the next five years.
OBSERVATION - Housing market continues to show signs of stress between demand, costs and other economic factors.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The US is hurtling towards a government shutdown on Tuesday night, and there appears to be little appetite on either side of the partisan divide to avoid it.
A last-ditch meeting between President Donald Trump and Democratic leaders in Congress made little progress. If anything, both sides have been digging deeper into their positions.
“I think we’re headed to a shutdown because the Democrats won’t do the right thing,” Vice President JD Vance told reporters after the meeting at the White House. “You don’t put a gun to the American people’s head and say, ‘Unless you do exactly what Senate and House Democrats want you to do, we’re going to shut down your government’.”
Democratic Senate leader Chuck Schumer said there were still “very large differences” between his party and the White House.
No one sounded optimistic.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2kn3n315lko
OBSERVATION - The democrats think they have a winner over ‘refunding’ health care, but the focus is spending on illegals - not US citizens. Same for other democrat demands - items the general public have rejected and continue to reject. Schumer is being forced by his radical elements to do something to stand up to Trump. In this case, he’s chosen the wrong hill to make his stand on.
For most Americans, any shutdown will not have significant effects initially. The longer it goes, the greater the impacts.
***
President Donald Trump’s administration started detailing its plans on Monday for which services it will pause if the federal government shuts down this week, with the U.S. health department slated to furlough 41% of its workforce.
The impending shutdown will be different from past government closures because the administration has threatened mass firings of federal staff, adding that it could use the lapse in funding to downsize the federal government.
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/trump-admin-shutdown-plans/2025/09/29/id/1228347/
OBSERVATION - Trump doubling down on his word to downsize the govt, and current law supports plans not to just furlough, but effectively fire govt employees. Democrats will hand him a big axe that will disproportionately affect the large sector of democrats in fed govt. Fed labor unions will be screaming for sure.
Illegal Immigration –
Four illegal foreign nationals were arrested in connection with an investigation into a blinding laser being shined at a helicopter pilot over the ICE facility on Sept. 27 during a far-left riot. (Seattle)
https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1972806526755848682?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - Not the brightest bulbs in the box. Because of the growth on the use of lasers in a hostile manner, IIRC laser filtering goggles are now standard issue for govt pilots.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Putin marked the so-called “Reunification Day” claiming millions in Donbas, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson “chose to return to Russia” in 2022 and that the war defends this “historic unity.” He also called the invasion a “justified special operation.” These are Kremlin narratives used to legitimize the illegal annexation of Ukrainian land.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping in the 40-50 degree range with scattered showers mid week.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia launched 65 attack drones overnight (Shahed, Gerbera and others) from Bryansk, Orel, Kursk, Millerovo, Primorsko-Akhtarsk and occupied Crimea.
Ukrainian air defense, EW units and mobile fire groups shot down or suppressed 46 drones across the north, south, east and center. 19 drones hit targets at six locations, with debris falling in two more.
Russian losses per 30/09/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+970 men
+4 tanks
+1 AFV
+27 artillery
+1 MLRS
+1 helicopter
Analysis and Future Operations —
Remains in the ‘low’ cycle of Russian drone activity.
On the ground, Ukraine and Russian are claiming territory being captured. Yet no evidence of the Russian offensive.
Some analysts are noting that the recent Ukrainian hit on a Russian power plant could signal a new branch of its strategic drone offensive. So far, Ukraine has been hitting Russian petroleum sites very efficiently . However, the hit on the Luch Thermal Power Station may signal a willingness to have Russians share in the winter woes Russia has inflicted on Ukrainian civilians. Power loss and loss of steam heat will make the winter cold. Many see this as an in kind retaliation, and not a new action.
Political movement towards a ceasefire continue to be dead in the water and Europe/NATO are sluggishly moving towards more sanctions against Russia.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Accusations of voting irregularities and more charges of Russian interference following Sunday’s elections.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Trump releases 20-point plan to end the Gaza conflict
- Netanyahu on board with the plan
——— GENERAL ——————————-
The Trump plan raises the possibility of a “credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood”, if conditions are met. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists the plan does not mean Palestinian statehood, and that Israel will “forcibly resist” the idea.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Netanyahu announces his support for Trump’s plan to end the war in the Gaza Strip, return the hostages, and end Hamas’ rule there.
Trump: If Hamas rejects the proposal, Netanyahu cannot be prevented from doing what must be done.
Israel FM Gideon Sa’ar:
Hamas is solely responsible for the war’s continuation
Hamas official Mahmoud Mardawi on @ajmubasher: We were not informed of Trump’s plan before its announcement, and its terms are close to the Israeli vision. What happened was an attempt to suppress the international momentum and recognitions of the Palestinian state
UPDATE - Some sources now say Hamas is reviewing it.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Cargo vessel struck by some sort of missile off the coast of Yemen. Though not said, most likely by Houthis.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Egypt have released a joint statement about the plan.
They welcome Trump’s “sincere efforts” to end the war, rebuild Gaza and prevent the displacement of the Palestinian people. They also commend Trump’s refusal to allow the annexation of the West Bank.
The statement - which is also signed by Turkey, Pakistan and Indonesia - says they will engage “constructively” towards finalising an agreement.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cd63wl4z6q3t?post=asset:18ac794d-5c87-4cf4-b526-7be1c85ef527
***
According to the full text of the “apology” to Qatar:
- Israel only “expresses regret” over the death of a Qatari citizen in the strike
- There is no apology whatsoever for the assassination attempt on Hamas leaders
- There is no apology whatsoever for the strike itself on Qatari territory and for the violation of its sovereignty
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Hamas has little room left to maneuver, with the offers it rejected over the past two years appearing far more favorable than the current American plan. Senior Hamas figure earlier hinted to the BBC that the terms largely align with Israel’s vision and fail to safeguard Palestinian interests, stressing that the group will not accept any plan that does not end the war and guarantee Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza, conditions that Israel flatly rejects.
So, in short, I expect Hamas to reject the proposal, or make a counter proposal that neither the US or Israel will accept. Hamas doesn’t have the cards to play. Initial international approval of the plan strips legitimacy for Hamas’ to reject, especially from arab nations. OTOH, radical islam groups, such as Palestine Jihad and Hezbollah lean heavily on continuing the fight. Even Turkey wants a armed Hamas element to remain.
At this stage, one must evaluate the jihadi mentality of the remaining Hamas fighters and their determination to fight to the end. That mentality is hard set, backed up by years of indoctrination in schools and mosques. Surrender under these conditions is unthinkable, and imans are doing nothing (seen publicly) to allow an offramp to the fighting.
With this jihad mentality, the willingness of Hamas to release ALL hostages at the front end of the plan is very distasteful. A key MO has been to use them for leverage. That leverage has dwindled significantly. Yet to release is a sign of surrender and weakness.
The saving face and ‘weakness’ is again a key component to the arab psyche. I’ve noted it with the conflict with Iran particularly. To maintain legitimacy, strength must be projected. Any signs of weakness invites another to take over the lead.
One last thing and that is the interactions between the leaders of Hamas on the ground in Gaza vs those in their pampered abodes in Qatar. The warriors have expressed jihad, while the others look to maintaining their lavish lifestyle.
A lot of components out there to the potential Hamas response. As I said above, I expect either an out right rejection or a counter proposal that will be rejected by the US and Israel. Hamas wants blood, pure and simple.
Lebanon -
Israeli army: We killed two Hezbollah members in raids on southern Lebanon.
Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025
Venezuela’s Maduro signed a decree granting him additional security powers in case of a military incursion into the country.
The decree would allow Maduro to mobilize armed forces throughout the country and give the military authority over public services and the oil industry.
OBSERVATION - Maduro is clearly rattled by the military buildup in the Caribbean and potential strikes on narco terrorist operations and bases.
Misc of Note –
A state of emergency has been declared in North Carolina and South Carolina, with a tropical storm on the horizon.
Tropical Depression Nine became Tropical Storm Imelda this weekend.
However, Imelda isn’t expected to make landfall in the United States.
The storm is projected to move close to the Southeast coast, bringing heavy rain, high surf, strong winds, and possible coastal flooding.
https://100percentfedup.com/multiple-states-declare-state-emergency/
OBSERVATION - Forecast models suggest these storms are hanging a hard right and their cores will miss the mainland. Rains and winds still remain a danger. Freepers in the region should remain on alert for changes which can happen.