Threat Matrix 2025

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 24th year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2024 has been “historic”: - The landslide election of Trump back into the Whitehouse, and the collapse of the massive lawfare effort against him. - Assassination attempts on Trump - Stunning defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel - Israel directly hits Iran after Iranian missile strikes, eliminating Iranian missile production capabilities for several years as well as destroying most of its air defense assets. - The almost overnight overthrow of Syria’s Assad and the associated serious losses to Russia and Iran/Hezbollah

I expect 2025 to be even worse as we are facing: - Massive political infighting as the Swamp tries to thwart the Trump agenda - Potential for civil unrest and violence driven by the communist left and Antifa affiliated elements. - Potential violence as Trump implements is deportation plan for millions of illegals. - The potential for a serious and deep recession - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Russian nuclear threats - China making a move on Taiwan - Israel and Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.

So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power

Happy New Year. Welcome to Threat Matrix 2025

Terrorism - Moderate THREAT as of Jan 1, 2025

At least 10 people are dead and dozens injured after a driver plowed a car into a crowd of New Year’s revelers on Bourbon Street in New Orleans, according to authorities.

The driver reportedly exited the vehicle and fired a weapon after hitting the crowd. A large police presence and EMS were reported at the scene. Roughly 30 people have been transported to five hospitals across the city after suffering injuries from the attack.

New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell declared the incident a “terrorist attack” in a Wednesday morning briefing, but FBI agents appeared to contradict her soon afterward, saying that has not been confirmed.

Latest report is that the driver/shooter is dead killed in a shoot out with police

Suspicious objects found at the crime scene reportedly are explosive devices.

UPDATE - a flag was attached other trailer hitch of the truck used in the attack. Images of the flag are indicating it to be one associated with ISIS and AQ.

OBSERVATION - Still developing. Must watch how the describe the terrorist’s race/religion. Islamist have been very active over years using vehicle attacks for terror.

***
The FBI says it has discovered more than 150 bombs during a raid on a farm in Virginia – thought to be the largest such cache seized by the law-enforcement agency in its history.

Brad Spafford was arrested on 17 December in Isle of Wight County, 180 miles (290km) south of Washington DC, after a tip-off that he was stockpiling weapons and homemade ammunition on the property he shares with his wife and two young children.

Investigators say some of the devices were found in a bedroom in an unsecured backpack labelled “#nolivesmatter” - an apparent reference to a far-right, anti-government movement.

Nolivesmatter is a movement that promotes extremist ideology, targeted attacks, mass killings, and criminal activity, and has encouraged members to engage in self-harm and animal abuse, according to the New Jersey Office of Homeland Security and Preparedness.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp83rp5z0ypo

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025
Level maintained due to potential debt ceiling impacts later this month

Credit card lenders wrote off $46 billion in seriously delinquent loans during the first nine months of 2024—a staggering 50% increase from the same period in 2023, according to BankRegData. This marks the highest level of defaults in 14 years. Write-offs, a key indicator of financial distress, signal that lenders are increasingly deeming many loans as unrecoverable.

Mark Zandi, head of Moody’s Analytics, emphasized the disparity in financial stability: “High-income households are fine, but the bottom third of US consumers are tapped out. Their savings rate right now is zero.”

Credit card balances have soared in recent years, with a combined increase of $270 billion in 2022 and 2023, pushing total balances above $1 trillion for the first time in mid-2023. Meanwhile, elevated interest rates have exacerbated the financial strain. Over the past year, Americans paid a record $170 billion in credit card interest, further depleting the savings that many accumulated during the pandemic.

https://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=7685#google_vignette

OBSERVATION - Americans have used credit to bridge the gap between wages and higher costs. With the Fed unlikely to drop rates more than a quarter point in 2025, relief is not expected and things will become worse.

***
Homeless rates in the United States reached record numbers in 2024, due in part to immigrants who entered the country illegally and then had trouble finding housing in the nation’s sanctuary cities, according to data released by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

HUD data shows that more than 770,000 people were homeless in 2024, marking an 18% climb, and indicates that the percentage of Hispanics affected is exponentially higher because of the increased immigrant population in New York, Denver, Chicago, and other sanctuary cities, The Hill reported Tuesday.

The climb was the largest year-over-year increase since the agency started tracking homelessness in 2007.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/hud-homeless-immigration/2024/12/31/id/1193445/

OBSERVATION - The stress of illegals on the economy in general and housing specifically is weighing down potential economic growth and stability. Most, if not all, of these illegals are getting tens of thousands of dollars worth of aid per month - food, shelter, spending money, etc. Citizens - nothing.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Cross reference this with CW2
Political observers expect to see the resumption of the fight to keep Trump out of the WH to become hot again next week. This on two fronts. First from the die hard liberals who are trying to craft procedural defenses and attacks.
Second could result from ‘friendly fire’. Current Speaker Johnson is under a lot of fire with his bumbling handling of the CR last month. Many republicans threatening to pull any support and toss the House into a series of votes for a new speaker. This would permit even greater democrat fun and games and even become the deciding vote for a new speaker. Meanwhile, the J6 deadline to certify the election looms big and ominous.

PJM’s Paula Bolyard explained Monday: “If there’s no House Speaker, there may not be a vote. If there is no certification, Trump cannot be inaugurated as president. Nor can JD Vance be sworn in without that crucial ceremonial vote. With no speaker in the House, the presidency could fall to Chuck Grassley until the House, with a slim Republican majority, can get things sorted out.”

Chuck Grassley would become president because, as the President Pro Tempore of the Senate, he is next in the line of succession.

Thus we could be facing a constitutional crisis even before Trump enters office.

https://pjmedia.com/robert-spencer/2024/12/31/is-a-constitutional-crisis-coming-at-us-next-week-n4935570#google_vignette

OBSERVATION - Short term solution is to keep Johnson on for at least the next few months - thru getting the debt ceiling issue dealt with (with a lot of hand holding). Vote certification and debt ceiling issues could blow up in the republican faces. The divided republicans can’t afford to let these two balls drop.

China –

In his New Year’s address, Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized resilience and confidence while cautioning against global uncertainties. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has signaled a shift in trade policies, The Hill reported.

Jinping highlighted the strength of China’s economy and the nation’s ability to overcome challenges in his speech, delivered as Trump prepares for his inauguration on Jan. 20.

Xi underscored China’s evolving pressures, including external uncertainties and the need for economic transformation.

https://www.newsmax.com/us/economy-china-taiwan/2024/12/31/id/1193491/

OBSERVATION - Xi is sitting on a pressure cooker as far as his economy goes. Post wuhan, the manufacturing giant has sputtered and stalled out in a large way. Rich Chinese are seeing ways to get their wealth out of country in ever increasing ways. Commoners stuck with the morass of the Evergreen property meltdown of the past few years. Contra to the economic woes, Xi is cranking up the military spending and developments - putting further strain on existing conditions.

The nation is big enough to force things for a while, but Xi will be increasingly forced to keep the economy from spinning out of control in 2025.

***
The images, sourced from Maxar Technologies, reveal the rapid establishment of new structures following the disengagement of Chinese and Indian troops in the region.

The satellite analysis indicates the presence of three new outposts in the region. These positions are strategically located to restrict Indian patrol routes in three directions, effectively reducing the extent of patrol areas claimed by Indian forces.

The satellite imagery underscores China’s swift construction efforts in the aftermath of the troop disengagement. Observers note that the development aligns with Beijing’s strategy to reinforce its presence along disputed border areas while adhering to negotiated terms.

https://defence-blog.com/satellite-images-show-rapid-chinese-build-up-in-disputed-border-area/

North/South Korea –

NK revealed photos of a new missile frigate, hosting vertical launch missile bays.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - approaching the end of the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Economic Impact –
Transit of Russian gas to the EU via Ukraine has been suspended since 8:00 Moscow time on January 1, Gazprom reported. The company stated that it has no technical and legal capacity to continue export via Ukraine

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20 -30s warming into the 40s towards the end of the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

On new years evening and night, Russia struck Ukraine with Shahed drones. Out of 111 launched, 63 were shot down by regular air defense and another 46 were suppressed by electronic warfare. Two more flew back to Russia and Belarus.

Russian losses per 01/01/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

+1250 men
+4 tanks
+13 AFVs
+4 artillery systems

Ukrainian defenders have largely stalled Russian advances near Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, but Russian forces continue to make gradual, grinding advances in the Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka directions.

Kursk Front -
In Kursk region Ukrainian forces have repelled 13 Russian army assaults, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports

Summary —

Repeating an ISW summary -

Russian forces gained 4,168 sq km (1,600 sq mi), largely comprised of fields and small settlements in Ukraine & Kursk Oblast, at a reported cost of over 420K casualties in 2024. Russian forces have thus suffered ~102 casualties per sq km of Ukrainian territory seized.

Russian advances have slowed in December 2024, however.

The Russian military command likely tolerated record levels of personnel casualties from September through November 2024 to facilitate larger territorial gains.

It remains unclear if the Russian military command will be willing to sustain such casualties if Russian forces’ rate of advance continues to decline as Russian forces continue to advance on more heavily defended settlements such as Pokrovsk.

https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1874262504320258065?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Middle East / N. Africa General -

LIBYA -
Russia is deploying its forces for operations in Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean to the Al-Khadim base in Libya

Since mid-December, following the fall of the Assad regime on 8 December, Moscow’s Antonov AN-124 and Ilyushin IL-76 aircraft have been flying daily from Khmeimim to al-Khadim in eastern Libya, near Haftar-held Benghazi.

The Russians have supplied mercenaries and weapons to General Khalifa Haftar’s forces in al-Khadim for years. Earlier this year, All Eyes on Wagner reported that Russian personnel are now being accommodated in a secure compound near the base.

OBSERVATION - Increase in Russian presence in Egypt may destabilize the status quo between opposing factions - one supported by Russia and the other by Turkey.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Hostage issue is stalled

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Referring to the hostages held by Hamas, on New Year’s Eve Trump remarked that, “they better let the hostages come back soon”.

Hostage talks have reportedly stalled and observers believe it is highly unlikely that they will be resolved before Trump takes office.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Air force has been carrying out successive airstrikes since dawn today, targeting Beit Lahia and Jabalia in the northern Gaza Strip

***
Two rockets were fired at Israeli territory from the Gaza Strip, the military said shortly after midnight. One was intercepted, the other allowed to crash into an open field.

***
The Israel Defense Force (IDF) announced Tuesday it launched a drone strike that killed a top Hamas commander who was behind last year’s Oct. 7 attack on the Kibbutz Nir Oz.

The IDF identified Hamas commander Abd al-Hadi Sabah as the perpetrator behind the kibbutz attack, which resulted in the deaths or capture of nearly half of the community’s 400 residents, per Fox News. The kibbutz is located in southern Israel, near the Gaza border.

Sabah was discovered hiding in a shelter in a designated humanitarian area of Khan Yunis in southern Gaza, the IDF said.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

The Israel Air Force struck a weapons storage facility, where IDF soldiers identified Hezbollah terrorists moving weapons into a nearby truck in Bani Haiyyan in southern Lebanon on Tuesday, the IDF announced Wednesday morning.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

I see no significant changes to the current situation in the near term. Operations to destroy Hamas in Gaza will continue to ebb and flow. It does appear that some elements of Hamas are basically mounting a last stand against Israel - congregating in so called ‘safe’ areas to mount military operations from, only to be smashed by Israeli forces.

The ceasefire in Lebanon won’t last much past Trumps inauguration and Hezbollah is already issuing threats. No doubt they have been working hard to reconstitute some form of order and resupply but it will not be enough to mount a serious threat to Israel, only to try to rebuild defensive capabilities because Israel is sure to resume offensive operations in S Lebanon.
Now more than half way thru the ceasefire and the Lebanese army has been essentially AWOL and not disarming and removing Hezbollah as agreed to.

I expect more Israeli air strikes on the Houthi’s, especially now that they’ve flushed their missile stockpiles into the open and stored in civilian areas. Honey badgers don’t care, especially if the Houthi’s have now militarized these area with the storage of these weapons.

Iran –

Speculation has popped up that a 4.6 earthquake that occurred in Iran in October was an underground detonation of a nuclear device. The problem is the quake was centered 10 Km below the ground (nearly 6 miles). Engineering effort to go that deep is nearly impossible. The quake is in a seismically active region that saw another quake of the mag 4.6 range later in November - again at a depth of 10 KM.

Highly doubtful it was a test.

Syria -

Fierce clashes in the eastern countryside of Manbij between the SDF and the Turkish led SNA. Turkish airforce is providing close air support for the SNA Airstrike north of Maskanah

Syria is receiving various kinds of aid from Ukraine and other gulf states.

Misc of Note –

Gone are the drones, enter stage right the “fog” (cue ominous music) .

The latest round of hysteria orbiting social media are reports of a strange ‘fog’ has has properties different (subjectively based) than normal fog. This fog has been reported globally and more recently in the US. Some claim strange odors associated with it and other unexplainable things seemingly associated with it.

IMHO people are very jumpy lately and this ‘fog’ is a continuation of that baseline fear that has developed over the past few years. Many of the complaints are just atmospheric conditions associated with fogs - cool, relatively stable and most pockets of air that also trap odors from other sources. Anyway, will have to keep watching to see how this pans out.

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