[Snip highlights] "...Crude oil markets will continue to show heightened volatility and price spikes cannotbe ruled out, as participants react to short-term developments ranging from politicalcrises to the weather forecast. However, under our baseline forecast, to which weattach a probability of 50%, markets respond to the price signal. Consequently, drilling activity continues to increase while consumption growth continues to slow, and inventories are replenished. As the factors underlying the recent price spikes unwind, we see crude oil reverting to its long-term average price of $40-45 in nominal terms. This assumes that demand growth is roughly offset by advances in productivity,...