Free Republic

A version of this column appeared originally in THE DAILY BEAST.As he campaigns for re-election, Barack Obama pursues a profound and uncommon honor denied to nearly two-thirds of his predecessors. Contrary to a widely held popular belief, political history doesn’t anoint incumbent presidents as automatic winners or even presumptive favorites. The numbers show that most presidents fail in their efforts to maintain a long-term hold on the affections of the fickle public and that Obama will face an uphill struggle in attempting to reprise his epic victory of 2008. Of the 42 men who served as president before the current...

As Republicans consider their presidential options for 2012, they ought to discard two dangerously misleading pieces of conventional wisdom: that Sarah Palin and her tea party supporters represent a triumphant, even dominant force in American politics, and that more centrist, veteran GOP officeholders exert little appeal to the electorate. National results in the last two election cycles conclusively disprove both assumptions: Palin's power as king (or queen) maker in 2010 produced spotty, unreliable results. And Sen. John McCain ran a stronger race and drew more votes in 2008 than outspoken conservatives who shared the GOP ballot with him.........