In plain English: for every 1,000 Trump points from 2024, roughly 850 stayed with the Republican candidate while 150 landed on the Democrat side. Republicans retained about 85% of Trump’s share in Senate races and 86% in gubernatorial races. The formula explains 88% of the variation. What makes the pattern so suspicious is its uniformity. It did not matter how red the state was. Wyoming, Ohio, Illinois, and Massachusetts all showed the same roughly 15% shift (p = 0.69).