Free Republic

NEW: Forecaster who has predicted almost every election since 1984, says Kamala Harris will likely win the election in November. Allan Lichtman, who correctly predicted Trump would win in 2016 & Biden in 2020, says his forecasts point to a Harris win. Lichtman uses '13 keys' to make his predictions: The "keys" are: – party mandate – contest – incumbency – third party – short-term economy – long-term economy – policy change, – social unrest – scandal – foreign/military failure – foreign/military success – incumbent charisma – challenger charisma As of now, Harris has 6 keys and Trump only has...

On Friday, leftwing professor Allan Lichtman, who frequently appears as a guest on CNN and MSNBC to hype his "13 Keys" to the presidency shtick was in an excited joyous mood. He had just heard from from former White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain that Joe Biden would remain in the presidential race thus preserving Lichtman's all important "incumbency key."Here is the jubilant Lichtman in an upbeat mood due to the preservation of his sacred incumbency key which he believed helped ensure Biden's victory in November.

Using Allan Lichtman's "13 Keys the the White House", both Biden and Harris will lose. And lose decisively. Allan Lichtman wrote "13 Keys the the White House" in 1981. His model has accurately predicted every election from 1980 to 2020. I was a 1980s student of Lichtman, his book was part of a class. I do take exception to his conclusion about 2020 election, where he forecast Trump losing. An honest appraisal of the 13 keys favored Trump but missed the steal. Moving forward to 2024, Trump now challenges either Biden or likely Harris. Lichtman's model says that if 8...

Joe Biden refuses to drop out of the presidential race even as some liberals, rattled by the incumbent’s frightening debate performance last week, keep pressuring him to do so.Who’s surprised by that?The inertia of a presidential campaign is one of the most powerful forces in politics. Ending one after a party’s nomination has been secured is almost unfathomable. The candidate is already strapped to the rocket.Furthermore, all serious presidential contenders, particularly those who hold or have already held the office — this year, we have both — have a God complex. They must. And doubt doesn’t exist in the presence...

Historian Allan Lichtman suffered a meltdown on CNN, accusing them and other media outlets of helping former President Donald Trump’ by showing Joe Biden‘s disastrous debate performance. Biden trailed off several times during the debate while mumbling incoherently, leading to concerns from top Democrats over his fitness for another presidential term. However, Lichtman claimed that networks broadcasting highlights from the debate are playing a role “in Donald Trump gaslighting his way to the presidency and threatening our democracy.”

The "Keys to the White House" are being handed out, predicting President Biden currently holds a slight lead in a hypothetical 2024 matchup against former President Donald Trump. Allan Lichtman, an election prognosticator who has correctly predicted nearly every presidential race since 1984, developed a formula that is used to make predictions about an upcoming presidential election - and in many cases, it proves to be accurate. Lichtman's "Keys to the White House" consists of 13 true or false questions that he believes establish a strong indication of who will be named the victor on the fall ballot. Each question...

Allan Lichtman – famous for correctly predicting the outcome of every U.S. presidential election since 1984 (barring 2000) – says Donald Trump is now the mainstream in the Republican Party, and no other GOP presidential hopeful stands a chance of winning the party’s nomination. The American University professor, himself a fierce critic of Trump, said ex-MAGA rival Ron DeSantis was an “abysmal candidate” who lacks Trump’s appeal and personal charm. Lichtman was clear that other candidates, sometimes described as standard-bearers of the “Republican mainstream”, had no chance – and were no longer the mainstream. “Here’s another mistake that all the...

For many years, history professor Allan Lichtman's has gained fame predicting Presidential Elections through a Key Question model that has remained consistent since 1980. Lichtman has published his prediction methodology in a Wikipedia entry entitled, The Keys to The White House, which he claims has predicted the winner every time, with exception of his error predicting Al Gore's victory over Bush.  Before the 2016 Election, Lichtman predicted his model would have Trump win, but the devil in his model is how he interprets the facts plugged into the model.  I analyzed his analysis in a 2016 FR vanity: Professor...

Allan Lichtman correctly predicted every popular vote winner between 1984 and 2012. By Charles Creitz | Fox News Fox News Flash top headlines for August 5 Fox News Flash top headlines are here. Check out what's clicking on Foxnews.com. A renowned presidential election prognosticator has predicted that former Vice President Joe Biden will defeat President Trump in November. Historian Allan Lichtman, who correctly called the winner of the popular vote in each election between 1984 and 2012, told The New York Times Wednesday his "Keys to the White House" metric points toward a win for the Democrat and Trump becoming the first one-term president since George H.W. Bush. "Voters vote pragmatically according to how well the party...

VIDEO Last Spring, history professor Allan Lichtman was all over TV insisting that unless the Democrats impeach President Donald Trump, he would be re-elected according to his election model. Now that the August congressional recess has come and gone with no impeachment in sight due in large part to the complete bust of the Mueller Report which found NO Trump-Russia collusion, where is Lichtman? It would be interesting to see him interviewed again as to the probability of Trump's re-election according to his model now that impeachment is off the table.

By Monica Showalter Professor Allan Lichtman of American University is a bright liberal, and his point-scale system for predicting who will win the next presidential election makes a certain amount of sense.  Now he's predicting a Democrat victory if the Democrats would just, just, just, impeach President Trump, something that gives fuel to the crazy fringe of the Democratic Party. According to Real Clear Politics, citing CNN: Professor Allan Lichtman, the man who has correctly predicted the last nine presidential elections, said President Trump is on track for another term unless Democrats do what is "politically right" and impeach him....

STEALING FROM STEELE There may be enough brewing in the federal investigation into how senior staff at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee procured the credit report of Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele to turn this into a full-blown scandal. According to Capitol Hill sources, as well as sources tied to the FBI and the Washington, D.C., U.S. Attorney's office, which is involved in the case, the investigation into "Credit Rate-Gate" could extend beyond Steele to other prospective and current Republican candidates for the U.S. Senate the DSCC were doing opposition research on. "We're hearing that they are looking into whether...

Today it is more clear than ever why Niles doubted FDR genuinely supported Zionism. President Barack Obama has spoken of his deep admiration for Franklin Delano Roosevelt and his desire to emulate FDR’s leadership style. But in the wake of the discovery of new documents detailing FDR’s behind-the-scenes coldness regarding the creation of a Jewish state, many Israelis will be hoping that sentiment does not extend to Roosevelt’s views on Zionism.

ANNAPOLIS, Md. - Democratic Senate candidate Alan Lichtman said Friday his arrest for trespassing at a televised senatorial debate the night before was unnecessary because he was involved in a peaceful protest. He was protesting the decision by sponsors of the debate to allow only Ben Cardin and Kweisi Mfume to participate. Lichtman and his wife, Karyn Strickler, were arrested along with a campaign worker when they tried to enter the Maryland Public Television building and refused repeated requests to leave a small vestibule at the entrance to the building. "I did not have to be arrested because I was...

Here's an excerpt.. But if spoiled ballots do indicate disenfranchisement, then the new data show that, by a dramatic margin, the group most victimized in the Florida voting was African American Republicans.

WASHINGTON – For U.S. Sen. John Edwards, Friday brought another rite of passage for the politically ambitious: a book deal. Publishing giant Simon & Schuster announced that it had inked an agreement with the North Carolina Democrat to produce a book "on the lessons learned during his distinguished legal career." The as-yet untitled hardcover is due to hit stores late next year — precisely the time that Edwards, a former trial lawyer, would be seeking to broaden his national exposure for a 2004 White House bid. In modern presidential politics, such books "can be an important part of the process,...

Exposed: Scandal of double voters With debate over the 2000 election still raging, thousands of people illegally register in both New York City and Florida, which could swing an election. By RUSS BUETTNERDAILY NEWS STAFF WRITER With debate over the 2000 election still raging, thousands of people illegally register in both New York City and Florida, which could swing an election. Some 46,000 New Yorkers are registered to vote in both the city and Florida, a shocking finding that exposes both states to potential abuses that could alter the outcome of elections, a Daily News investigation shows. Registering in...

She has denied it, and denied it again, and still the Washington rumor mill persists in speculating: Is Hillary Clinton (news - web sites) planning a run for the White House in 2004? The crowded field of Democrats running for the White House already stands at 10, and Clinton tried again this past week to squelch suggestions that she intended to become presidential contender number 11. "I'm not running," she said at a breakfast with political reporters. When asked whether anything could convince her to change her mind, she shook her head and said firmly: "No." That seemingly definitive answer...

I sat watching in astonishment. The one who couldn’t bear to show up to concede was not, as expected, Donald Trump, but Hillary Clinton. [SNIP] The Republican establishment couldn’t stand Trump. The Democratic establishment mocked him. The Republican nominee didn’t even really seem to have much of a campaign. He spent more on “Make America Great” hats than on polling. When I visited his campaign headquarters this summer, there were more pictures, paintings and cardboard cutouts of Trump around than Trump advisers. If you don’t count Newt Gingrich — and I don’t — only one major political historian, Allan Lichtman,...

Franklin Roosevelt enjoyed the overwhelming support of American Jews during his presidency, and the reasons are clear. In his three-plus terms from 1933 to 1945, he led the war against Hitler, supported a Jewish homeland in Palestine... Starting in the 1960s, a flood of books appeared with self-evident titles like “No Haven for the Oppressed” and “While Six Million Died.” But the most influential account by far was David S. Wyman’s “Abandonment of the Jews,” published in 1984. Wyman considered numerous parties responsible for America’s tepid response to the Holocaust, including a badly divided Jewish community, a nest of virulent...