Posted on 05/31/2019 6:50:31 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Professor Allan Lichtman of American University is a bright liberal, and his point-scale system for predicting who will win the next presidential election makes a certain amount of sense.
Now he's predicting a Democrat victory if the Democrats would just, just, just, impeach President Trump, something that gives fuel to the crazy fringe of the Democratic Party. According to Real Clear Politics, citing CNN:
Professor Allan Lichtman, the man who has correctly predicted the last nine presidential elections, said President Trump is on track for another term unless Democrats do what is "politically right" and impeach him. In an interview with CNN's Brooke Baldwin on Wednesday, he said, "It's a false dichotomy to say Democrats have a choice between doing what is right and what is constitutional, and what is politically right. Impeachment is also politically right."
Lichtman's logic is that if a president has 'scandal' as part of his profile, among a certain number of other negative points from his list, he's a goner.
Right now, based on my system, there has to be six negative factors against the party holding the White House, the Trump party to predict their defeat. They're down only three. But an impeachment would nail down the scandal key, a fourth key, it might trigger other keys like a real challenge to his re-nomination or a third party, enough to defeat him.
And let's not forget, impeachment is not just a vote in the House. It involves public hearings, as part of the impeachment inquiry. And what everyone forgets, a public trial in the Senate in which House prosecutors present evidence, present documents, make opening and closing statements.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
Here’s the problem with the Professor’s logic: HE ASSUMES THAT THERE IS A CRIME COMMITTED.
The fact is — Mueller tried to prove there was one but after 2 years, hundreds of witnesses and over $30 million dollars spent, all he could say was in effect: “I still suspect he’s guilty, but I cannot provide sufficient evidence to prove it, therefore, I leave it up to this Democrat controlled congress to continue my work.”
THERE IS NO SCANDAL.
Democrats are trying to manufacture a scandal based on things that never happened, and then react to the ‘scandal’ they invented as a means of gaining political power. Call it a fake scandal. The Mueller report cleared President Trump of any collusion with the Russians and Trump started rising in the polls. That was why Robert Mueller tried to jump in the other day and swing things back to negative. Perception is reality. Yet Democrats can impeach Trump all they like and still not be able to pin a true scandal on him
He somehow forgot that Clinton’s approval ratings went up during impeachment?
The Republicans lost seats in the 1998 midterm elections.
1998 was a major disappointment to the Republicans, who were expecting to gain seats due to the embarrassment Clinton suffered during the Monica Lewinsky scandal, and the “six-year itch” effect observed in most second-term midterm elections.
However, the Republicans lost five seats to the Democrats, but retained a narrow majority in the House. A wave of Republican discontent with Speaker Newt Gingrich prompted him to resign shortly after the election; he was replaced by Dennis Hastert of Illinois.
The campaign was marked by Republican attacks on the morality of President Bill Clinton, with Independent Counsel Kenneth Starr having released his report on the Lewinsky scandal and House leaders having initiated an inquiry into whether impeachable offenses had occurred. However, exit polls indicated that most voters opposed impeaching Clinton, and predictions of high Republican or low Democratic turnout due to the scandal failed to materialize.
Only two of the last nine presidential elections have been close. Just shows how shallow what passes for analysis today is. Urinalists report numbers - that’s different than understanding them.
And 2000 wasn’t close until the November surprise of Bush’s DWI was timed for maximum effect, so really he is 1 for 1. BFD.
He doesn’t assume there was a crime committed. He is not that dumb. He knows impeachment is A) suicide for the rats and B) mostly likely NOT going to happen since it has yet to take off and some rats have already said no. By adding this “Yeah but” to his prediction he wins either way. If no impeachment Trump wins and he says, “See I told you so” If there is somehow an impeachment and the rats get flattened as will happen, he’ll say, “See I told you so.” He’s as phony as a three dollar bill.
He’s not assuming there IS any scandal, he’s just suggesting they make it look like there is.
RE: He’s not assuming there IS any scandal, he’s just suggesting they make it look like there is.
OK, I stand corrected about what he assumes. However, he still has wrong assumptions, even if the Democrats will make it look like there is ( and THEY WILL ), that Trump has nothing, no evidence to fight back with.
even as we speak there is an investigation through an full time appointed prosecutor named John Durham to review the origins of the Russian Collusion investigation.
Trump just gave Attorney General William Barr “full and complete authority” to declassify documents related to surveillance activities during the 2016 campaign.
Democrats are already unnerved by this development.
Heck, if there is to be impeachment, I say, LET’s HAVE IT and let the truth unfold!
Lichtman assumes that impeachment will end up with the perception that Trump is guilty. His problem is he does nto consider the other possibility -— IT WILL BACKFIRE!
I absolutely want the dems to attempt impeachment. The Senate will park that move right in Nancy Pelosi’s hind end and Trump Nation will fire up between the left’s wildest nightmares.
*BEYOND the left’s wildest nightmares.
If the Democrats impeach the President they might continue voting after their executions but they won’t be winning any elections.
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