Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Nate Silver's Initial Prediction Has Trump at 66% Chance of Winning 2024
Independent Journal Review ^ | 2023-06-26 | Bradley Courtright

Posted on 06/26/2024 1:34:35 PM PDT by oldskoolwargamer2

Nate Silver's current model of the 2024 Presidential Election has Trump at 66% to win. Nate is pretty good I think, he had the highest odds of anyone in 2016 for Trump.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Chit/Chat; Miscellaneous; Society
KEYWORDS: natesilver; politics; poll; polling; polls; predictions
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-28 next last

1 posted on 06/26/2024 1:34:35 PM PDT by oldskoolwargamer2
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: oldskoolwargamer2

Nate Silver is the idiot who said 4-5 times, over more than a month, that we’d hit “Peak Trump,” and that Trump would descend into obscurity.

His numbers were ALWAYS wrong.


2 posted on 06/26/2024 1:36:35 PM PDT by ConservativeMind (Trump: Befuddling Democrats, Republicans, and the Media for the benefit of the US and all mankind.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: oldskoolwargamer2

What was his prediction in 2020, and is he trying to factor in vote fraud for 2024?


3 posted on 06/26/2024 1:36:36 PM PDT by HartleyMBaldwin
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: oldskoolwargamer2

This is yet another reference to how unlikely Nate said Trump was:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2015/09/15/nate_silver_trump_has_about_5_chance_of_winning.html

Note how YouTube deleted Real Clear Politics’ videos that showed anything bad for Nate.


4 posted on 06/26/2024 1:39:42 PM PDT by ConservativeMind (Trump: Befuddling Democrats, Republicans, and the Media for the benefit of the US and all mankind.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: oldskoolwargamer2

He will change the prediction by August/September, to be in line with democrat propaganda. Now he just wants everyone’s attention.


5 posted on 06/26/2024 1:40:28 PM PDT by Moorings
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: HartleyMBaldwin

He had Biden at 90% in 2020. But he also forecast the popular vote at 8% in Biden’s favor, so a pretty big miss there.

If anything he was low on Trump in 2020. Probably because most polls overestimated Biden by 5-10% both nationally and statewide. Florida was the worst miss.

It should be pointed out that his model is primarily a fancy poll aggregator. If the polls are off his numbers will be off.


6 posted on 06/26/2024 1:43:43 PM PDT by oldskoolwargamer2
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: oldskoolwargamer2

Don’t buy this red wave crap. The Democrat abortion card is very potent.


7 posted on 06/26/2024 1:46:51 PM PDT by DeplorablePaul
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: oldskoolwargamer2

Didn’t Nate Silver create FiveThirtyEight?


8 posted on 06/26/2024 1:47:07 PM PDT by nickcarraway
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ConservativeMind

When was that?


9 posted on 06/26/2024 1:47:19 PM PDT by nickcarraway
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: DeplorablePaul

The Republicans just need to replicate Democrats on all issues, then they can win.


10 posted on 06/26/2024 1:48:50 PM PDT by nickcarraway
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: ConservativeMind

The libs worship him so this is entertaining.


11 posted on 06/26/2024 1:53:32 PM PDT by SaxxonWoods (Are you ready for Black Lives MAGA? It's coming.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: oldskoolwargamer2

Thanks. I don’t pay much attention to polls and predictions.


12 posted on 06/26/2024 1:53:54 PM PDT by HartleyMBaldwin
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: oldskoolwargamer2

In 2016 he had Clinton over 70 percent...until the results started coming in.


13 posted on 06/26/2024 1:56:37 PM PDT by Buttons12 (Should, should, should. Fighting words. )
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: DeplorablePaul
Don’t buy this red wave crap. The Democrat abortion card is very potent.

Indeed! It was the main reason women came out of the woodwork to vote and killed the red wave in 2022. Roe Vs Wade was the catalyst. And it did not help when Senator Linda Graham proposed a time restriction on abortions.

14 posted on 06/26/2024 2:03:28 PM PDT by Bobbyvotes (I will be voting for Trump/whoever he picks VP in November. If he loses in 2024, country is toast.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: HartleyMBaldwin

What was his prediction in 2020, and is he trying to factor in vote fraud for 2024?

************

The fraud will happen just like in 2016 & 2020, but Biden is dead meat no matter what they do.
If Biden wasn’t in serious trouble he wouldn’t be debating Trump, he would just hide in his Delaware basement and wait for victory.

Never, forget official RNC policy was no more debates because of liberal bias against Republicans, this was a Trump change that occurred after 2020 within the RNC.
Then the Biden campaign offered up terms they thought would be turned down, but Trump said “Let’s do it.”

The Biden campaign is like Johnny Ringo in the movie Tombstone, thinking he was going to be in a duel with Wyatt Earp(a guy he could take) and ending up with Doc Holliday.(Oh shit!)


15 posted on 06/26/2024 2:07:21 PM PDT by unclebankster (Globalism is the last refuge of a scoundrel.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Bobbyvotes

Yes. Lindsey Lohan Graham, my senator, thought that the 6 week Fla ban was too extreme and repulsing female voters so he offered the 15 week compromise. Little did he know that the left demands no abortion restrictions up to post birth. There is no compromise. 15 weeks just pissed off the pro life wing of the Republican party. Yes. Graham is a dope. Sorry


16 posted on 06/26/2024 2:13:12 PM PDT by DeplorablePaul
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: DeplorablePaul

Graham just dances to the tune his masters are playing.


17 posted on 06/26/2024 2:16:46 PM PDT by Rlsau1
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: oldskoolwargamer2

We all know that Trump will have more real votes, again. The problem lies in the FACT that RINO’s are working with commie Dims to steal our votes to destroy and “fundamentally change” the USA.


18 posted on 06/26/2024 2:19:04 PM PDT by vpintheak (Sometimes you’re the windshield, sometimes you’re the bug. )
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: nickcarraway
“The Republicans just need to replicate Democrats on all issues”

Isn’t that what the republican’ts have been doing for the last 30 years?

19 posted on 06/26/2024 2:22:19 PM PDT by Sicon ("All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others." - G. Orwell>)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: nickcarraway

The cute video that strung his “Peak Trump” comments is something I now can’t find, but this is one article speaking to some of the occasions:

https://dailycaller.com/2016/05/04/7-times-nate-silver-was-hilariously-wrong-about-donald-trump/


20 posted on 06/26/2024 2:40:36 PM PDT by ConservativeMind (Trump: Befuddling Democrats, Republicans, and the Media for the benefit of the US and all mankind.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-28 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson