Keyword: tradesports
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Thompson might still be hanging in there in national polls , but those trading money on the probability of Thompson becoming the nominee are increasingly bearish on his chances. At one point, the probability of Thompson winning the GOP nomination was trading at 35% at Intrade . Over the last month his position has deteriorated, and in the last several days crumbled. At Intrade Thompson is trading at 8.4%. At Iowa Electronic Markets 7.1%, The validity of future’s markets is sometimes questioned. No one was questioning them, however, when Fred was trading at 35% .
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Today, for the first time, the Intrade/Tradesports contract for Giuliani to win the GOP nomination has surpassed that of McCain. Current prices are Rudy 31.0 and McCain 30.3
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This is a favorite topic of mine. In investing, we can look at two markets and imply a third. That's basically how options work. Well...we can do the same for predictions markets. At Tradesports, they offer futures contracts for how many seats they Democrats will pickup in the house. They offer contract for several different scenarios (i.e., greater than 14.5 seats, or greater than 19.5 seats). Assuming a logonormal distribution, we can find an implied mean and standard devation. The chart above shows the mean number seats the Democrats looks to gain (black line) with plus and minus one...
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This is the graphic showing Tradesports prediction that the 'rats pick up at least 15 seats:Looks like probability is at 45%. Other predictions: Democrats pick up at least 1 seat: 95% Democrats pick up at least 5 seats: 90% at least 10 seats: 65% at least 15 seats 45% (same as above) at least 20 seats: 33% at least 25 seats: 22% at least 30 seats: 13%
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Control of the House is down to around 40%: And the Senate is down to around 65-70%--it used to be at 80%!
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This chart has the closing price @55.2%, but the LATEST Bid is 57.1!
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The digital odds are between 2.33 and 2.42 of the GOP retaining control of the House of Representatives in 2006. (Does that translate to 41.3 percent?) The odds have never been lower since this contract opened on Tradesports in October of 2005.
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One share will be worth 100 if she is confirmed, 0 if she is not. She is now trading at 32.
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The US Senate Confirmation of Harriet Miers has been holding steady at about 65% for over a week. One Week: But this evening, she has dropped precipitoiusly, to less than 50% Today:
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Scroll down a little, then click on "Legal" to the right, to see the odds on various candidates to be nominated to the Supreme Court. Yesterday, Garza was the clear front-runner. Today, Gonzales has pulled just behind Garza, after a gain of 11 points. The most hopeful development, from my perspective, is that Janice Rodgers Brown is now tied for 3rd place with Luttig, after gaining 10.9 points in the last 24 hours. Do the TradeSports betters know something that I don't?
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Politics - New Jersey Governor Contract Bid Ask Last Vol Chge New Jersey Governor Republican Candidate 2005 NJ.GOV.REP.FORRESTERDoug Forrester to be New Jersey Governor Republican Candidate 2005 M 30.1 39.9 35.0 55 0 NJ.GOV.REP.SCHUNDLERBret Schundler to be New Jersey Governor Republican Candidate 2005 M 45.0 69.9 55.0 1 0 NJ.GOV.REP.MURPHYJohn Murphy to be New Jersey Governor Republican Candidate 2005 M - 12.0 3.0 100 0 NJ.GOV.REP.SCHROEDERRobert Schroeder to be New Jersey Governor Republican Candidate 2005 M - 5.0 3.0 0 0 NJ.GOV.REP.LONEGANSteve Lonegan to be New Jersey Governor Republican Candidate 2005 M - 5.0 3.0 0 0 NJ.GOV.REP.DIGAETANOPaul DiGaetano...
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John Bolton to be confirmed by the US Senate to become the next US Ambassador to the UN Bid: 74.6 Ask: 83.9 Last 75.0 Volume: 996
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Looks like my initial hunch was correct. The assassination of Baghdad governor Ali al-Haidari on January 4th shocked the Iraq elections futures on Tradesports. I did a little bottom fishing at 81. The price has since rebounded to about 89. There are still about 20 days to go until the election, so maybe some more opportunities will come up.
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The TradeSports "Osama captured" contracts jumped up wildly today. The price changes are as follows: Contract Change OSAMA.CAPTURE.DEC04 +7.9 OSAMA.CAPTURE.JAN05 +15.7 OSAMA.CAPTURE.MAR05 +11.6 OSAMA.CAPTURE.JUN05 +2.0 I don't know what news might have prompted this buying, except the new tape that was released yesterday.
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Republican Nomination John McCain --- 21.8 / About 4.6 to 1 (Bet $1, win $4.60) Rudy Guiliani --- 17.8 / About 5.6 to 1 Bill Owens --- 12.6 / About 7.9 to 1 Bill Frist --- 12.1 / About 8.3 to 1 Mitt Romney --- 10.1 / About 10.0 to 1 Jeb Bush --- 8.0 / About 12.5 to 1 George Allen --- 5.5 / About 18.2 to 1 Colin Powell --- 4.7 / About 21.3 to 1 Tom Ridge --- 3.5 / About 28.6 to 1 Chuck Hagel --- 2.2 / About 45.5 to 1 Condeleeza Rice --- 2.2...
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From hopping over to Tradesports throughout the day looks like "W" got down to about 28 or so. Maybe lower? Anyone make a killing? Let us rejoice vicariously through you!
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Yesterday afternoon when we were all worried (me too) and the MSM was fibbing again with those exit polls,freepers were watching Tradesports and seeing bush crash-18 or so i forget.boy some could have made alot of $$$$$ to help our economy :)
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PRESIDENT.GWBUSH2004 91 85.1 85.2 49 85.2 1.3m +32.2 PRESIDENT.KERRY2004 150 13.1 15.2 275 15.2 166.8k -31.8
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Tradesports.com has shot up for Bush at 60.0. I bought in at 32.7! Anyone else get in on this?
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Big move up for Bush; hit 60% just moments ago, from the low 20's when the 'exit poll scare' first hit
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