Tradesports Selling Odds on HOW MANY seats the 'rats win in the House

Tradesports.com ^ | 10 October 2006

[Recovering_Democrat]

This is the graphic showing Tradesports prediction that the 'rats pick up at least 15 seats:

Looks like probability is at 45%. Other predictions:

Democrats pick up at least 1 seat: 95%

Democrats pick up at least 5 seats: 90%

at least 10 seats: 65%

at least 15 seats 45% (same as above)

at least 20 seats: 33%

at least 25 seats: 22%

at least 30 seats: 13%

[Recovering_Democrat]

Yuck. This looks like a whole new line of wagering.

[jveritas]

Obsession with polls... did we learn anything about polls especially in the last three? What does it take for people with an IQ over 80 to stop being obsessed with polls when these polls have been so wrong in predicting elections outcome? Get real guys and wake up.

[jveritas]

last three = last three elections.

[Billthedrill]

Heck, with all the East Coast media having declared victory for the Dems one wonders why we even bother to have an election.

Not that they haven't done it before. It's the source of those pathetic "It must be election fraud because all the polls showed us ahead" bleatings. Somebody's in for a terrible disappointment. Again.

[Prokopton]

Obsession with polls... did we learn anything about polls

These are not polls. Actual people are putting up real money betting on these outcomes. I think they are more accurate than polls.

[concerned about politics]

Polls: Democrats Set to Take Senate (2002 Flashback) (polls say democrats a shoe-in)

[WhiteGuy]

Hopefully everyone understands that the purpose of having a "line" on a particular bet is to encourage an equal $ amount of wagers on both sides of the line.

It has nothing to do with the actual likelihood of a particular event occurring.

[jveritas]

These people are betting based on the polls, in 2004 they had Kerry winning the elections on Election Day because of the most recent media polls and exit polls.

[concerned about politics]

These are not polls. Actual people are putting up real money betting on these outcomes. I think they are more accurate than polls.

They're about to lose a bundle.

[thoughtomator]

Hmm... at 20-1 odds against the GOP holding even or better, that's a pretty attractive gamble.

[Vision]

What does it matter. It's just laypeople betting. Remember the odds on Bush election day 2004?

[RexBeach]

Don't despair, just make sure you vote!

Tradesports.com has had mixed results in the past.

[Prokopton]

Hopefully everyone understands that the purpose of having a "line" on a particular bet is to encourage an equal $ amount of wagers on both sides of the line. It has nothing to do with the actual likelihood of a particular event occurring.

The odds are set by the bettors, much like parimutuel betting on a race. The odds are directly related to what the bettors think will happen. The accuracy is determined by the knowledge and skill of the bettors as a whole.

[riverdawg]

Yes; think of the betting odds as the "price" at which the demand for (bids) and supply of (offers) predictions are equalized.

FWIW, the betting market at tradesports.com has an excellent track record since inception of predicting the outcomes of US political races. As I recall, it nailed both the total electoral votes for each candidate and the individual state results in Bush v. Kerry.

[Sinner6]

They are better then Zogby.

Not that it takes much anymore.

[LadyPilgrim]

Put your money away...they aren't winning any!!!
Polls are lies......so don't sweat it.

[Always Right]

Hmm... at 20-1 odds against the GOP holding even or better, that's a pretty attractive gamble.

I would be more tempted to take the 10-1 odds at losing less than 5 seats. It would be amazing if the GOP did not lose any net seats. There is a chance that the GOP may lose less than 5 seats though.

[thoughtomator]

I agree, that seems like a good bet too. The Dems have a bad habit of talking themselves into extreme overconfidence in the run-up to an election. Perhaps it helps them swallow the losses better when they can claim "we wuz robbed!"

[BohDaThone]

Actually, until the exit polls started coming out, tradesports generally had bush a slight favorite throughout the last week or two of 2004.

[Bonaparte]

"They're about to lose a bundle."

Tradesports isn't going to lose a thing. In fact, they'll make money just like they always do. They are setting these odds and outcomes based on what the public thinks is going to happen, not what Tradesports thinks. See post #7.