Odds of GOP Retaining the House in 2006 Hitting the Bottom on Tradesports

Tradesports ^ | September 4, 2006 | Tradesports

[TSchmereL]

The digital odds are between 2.33 and 2.42 of the GOP retaining control of the House of Representatives in 2006. (Does that translate to 41.3 percent?) The odds have never been lower since this contract opened on Tradesports in October of 2005.

[TSchmereL]

The odds of the GOP retaining control of the House of Representatives was below 50% from mid-May through the first of June. They dipped down below 50% again at the end of July and have been below 50% since then. But now they are going below 45% and it looks like they are still going down.

Compare that to the odds of GOP retaining control of the Senate which have been hovering around 80% for most of the life of the contract.

Based on how folks are betting, the Democrats will take the House in 2006, but not the Senate.

[italianquaker]

Nah we will control both

[wvobiwan]

Nah, just weeding out the suckers.

Pelosi's Putch isn't going to happen.

[Lunatic Fringe]

I think unless something drastic happens (bin Laden captured, Iran makes nice, etc) the GOP will lose the House. And they deserve it.

[photodawg]

Based on how folks are betting, the Democrats will take the House in 2006, but not the Senate.


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And all the pre and post season basketball lines had UCONN the favorite to win the 2006 national championship, but they didn't even make the final four. You see, the games have to be played before you can total up the score.

[Eagles Talon IV]

Well, I mean if folks are BETTING on this then that is certainly hard evidence it will happen....right? Now you don't suppose these bets are being made based on "proof" the betters have do you? Proof perhaps gotten from all those whiz bang "experts" that have so often been dead on accurate in the past? These would be the columnists from the drive by media, the Chrissy Matthews of the world and those always right Democrat talking points.

What would happen to those Trade Sports numbers if I got a few of my friends and other joined us, say a few thousand and began betting the other way and kept it up for a few weeks?

[cripplecreek]

http://www.nytimes.com/ref/washington/2006ELECTIONGUIDE.html?currentDataSet=senANALYSIS

According to this slimes article the GOP is doomed uin their opinion. Fortunately their own numbers show the GOP to be anything but doomed.

Senate races by state

39 safe dem

8 leaning dem

3 toss up

3 leaning GOP

47 safe GOP

The numbers in the house are even better

189 safe dem

17 leaning dem

16 toss up

21 leaning GOP

192 safe GOP

[Don Corleone]

Sports are not politics though some politicians are sports.

[Sir Francis Dashwood]

I think unless something drastic happens (bin Laden captured, Iran makes nice, etc) the GOP will lose the House. And they deserve it.

That is just wishful thinking on your part... judging by the remarks you have made elsewhere...

[Minn. 4 Bush]

The Rino's in the senate deserve to lose but the house does not. The house HAS delivered for conservatives. If they lose, it's because they are all up for re-election.

[photodawg]

I think unless something drastic happens (bin Laden captured, Iran makes nice, etc) the GOP will lose the House. And they deserve it.



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Why do they deserve it ? Because the traitors among us have painted a picture for the stupid, spoiled American voter that they don't like. Off political action, the dems deserve to lose 40 more seats. Tax cuts saved the economy, social security reform was a republican issue with an attempt to privatize, Republicans are fighting to close the boarders and defend the country. Why do they deserve to loose seats to a bunch of traitors, communists, and appeasers?

[JCEccles]

Gas prices are dropping steadily. The closer the public gets to election day the more apparent it will be that Pelosi and Reid aren't offering any coherent plan for the country except "Retreat in Defeat." Watch the Tradesports odds to reverse dramatically in the last few weeks before the election.

[Minn. 4 Bush]

AMEN!

[JLAGRAYFOX]

Not only Tradesports, but scores of liberal Democrat so-called objective Pundits like Stu Rothenberg and Charlie Cook will do an eleventh hour turnaround to protect their useless reputations. Lots of liberal scum like Cook and Rothenberg are gonna have egg on their faces the day after the election.

[BW2221]

"Republicans are fighting to close the boarders and defend the country."

It's been five years since 9-11. The Republicans have controlled the executive and both houses of Congress. Either they have not been fighting very hard or they are not very good fighters.

[freespirited]

Speaking of bad news from Tradesports, last time I looked there, McCain was the runaway favorite to get the GOP nomination in 2008.

[GeorgefromGeorgia]

The Senate will stay GOP, I predict 52-48. The House will be close either way, unless the GOP gets their act together or we kill or catch Bin Laden.

[photodawg]

It's been five years since 9-11. The Republicans have controlled the executive and both houses of Congress. Either they have not been fighting very hard or they are not very good fighters.
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I said republicans, not all republicans. Even RR passed an amnesty. Bush is a global economy guy, he sees this north American alliance thing as the future for America. This is a mistake without closed, sovereign boarders. Many republicans oppose him on this. Bush does understand islam and the need for its defeat, you can't have everything out of one national party. But please consider the alternative....because that is an unmitigated disaster.

[Redmen4ever]

Both TradeSports and Iowa Electronic Markets put the odds at about 80 percent that the Republicans will retain the Senate (if necessary, via the tie-breaking vote of Dick Cheney).

Looking at individual races on TradeSports (NA on Iowa Electronic Markets), it appears that the Republicans will lose a net of about 3 Senate seats.

Probable loses: PA and RI, Possible loses: OH, MO and MT, Possible gains: NJ.

This appears to be the concensus of pundit opinion.

Looking at the House, TradeSports puts the odds of GOP retaining control at a little below 50-50, while Iowa Electronic Markets puts the odds at just about 50-50.

BUT ... looking at specific races ... it's hard to see the 15 seats that Democrats would need to win.

Concensus of pundit opinion is similar, i.e., predicting that Democrats can or even will probably take the House but not being able to say which districts the Democrats will probably win.

Very few Republicans won with less than 5 percent of the vote in 2004 (I think the number was three). Add to these seats vacancies in Republican districts where the vote in the Presidential election indicates that the district is potentially competitive, and of course Tom DeLay's former seat where the Republicans have to try to win via a write-in campaign, and you don't get to 15. Then consider the possibility that Republicans might pick up some seats (e.g., two in Georgia).

Historical voting tendencies (reinforced by gerrymandering) + incumbancy + Republicans have not yet started campaigning + lower turnout in mid-term/Republican GOTV = continued Republican control of the House as well as continued GOP control of the Senate (abliet with smaller margins in both chambers).

A MORE OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO would involve (1) good news from Iraq, (2) clarifying that the choice is between continuing with the policy of building up Iraq's ability to defend itself versus abaondoning the country to Islamic extremists, and (3) bringing the economy and social issues into the debate.

[moose2004]

I think we'll lose up to 10 seats in the House and 3 in the Senate. Bush will govern the remainder of his second term with slim majorities, gridlock will rule and little will get done.