Free Republic

There has been a lot of quite legitimate worry that China has been planning to invade Taiwan in the next year or two, but according to recent intelligence assessments, the likelihood of that happening is diminishing. Good. First, it's important to recognize facts that often get blurred: Beijing has pursued a policy of developing capabilities on a timeline that would make an invasion in 2027 a realistic choice, but that never meant it planned to do so in 2027. It never established a timeline for invasion, but one for readiness. Look at Russia Ukraine. They cant even get food to...

Shanghai airports canceled hundreds of flights on Monday as Tropical Storm Dolphin dumped heavy rain in eastern China, causing flooding in places after making landfall as a typhoon the previous day. Shanghai’s Hongqiao and Pudong airports canceled more than 900 flights, or about 40% of those expected, after about 1,300 were canceled the day before, according to Shanghai Airport Group. Shanghai also suspended some of its metro lines on Monday, and China Railway Chengdu Group suspended 115 trains, state news agency Xinhua reported. Authorities warned of risks of severe flooding and landslides in some areas. State broadcaster CCTV reported that...

U.S. Defence Secretary ​Pete Hegseth urged Asian allies on Saturday to ramp up military spending to counter China's growing power and prevent its dominance in the region, warning of "rightful alarm" ‌over its rapid military buildup. Hegseth, speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Asia's premier forum for defence leaders, militaries and diplomats, said a stronger, more self-reliant network of allies is essential to deter aggression and preserve the balance of power. "There is rightful alarm regarding China's historic military buildup and the expansion of its military activities in the region and beyond," he said. "A Pacific dominated by any...

The U.S. missile stockpiles crisis is becoming a growing national security concern as American defense systems are being consumed faster than manufacturers can replace them. A new report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies revealed that the United States fired more than 1,000 Patriot interceptors during the war in Iran, while only 172 replacements have been manufactured so far. The widening gap between missile usage and production is raising alarm inside Washington because critical defense systems including Patriot and THAAD are now under extraordinary pressure. The missile stockpiles shortage is also affecting key U.S. allies that rely heavily...

USA has paused a $14bn arms sale to Taiwan, amid significant pressure from China. The shipment was expected to include equipment vital to the island’s defence, but just a week after Trump visited Beijing for meetings with Xi, the deal has been put on hold. US said it was pausing the deal because it needed to preserve its stockpile for the war in Iran – but in the same message, it insisted it still had enough weapons. Hung Cao, the acting US navy secretary, said: “Right now we’re doing a pause in order to make sure we have the munitions...

DONALD Trump has warned Taiwan not to declare independence after his crunch talks with Xi Jinping at his Beijing summit. The US president revealed Xi asked him directly if America would intervene in the event of a Chinese invasion to which he refused to answer.

"The move to besiege the Strait of Hormuz and the Iranian coasts is expected to paralyze China energetically and economically within a short time, and it is possible that this is the central logic behind the move." (From the study by Adam Kraft and international researchers). The American blockade of Iranian coasts and the Strait of Hormuz has placed the Chinese economy in a precarious position. A new study by a former U.S. national security official warns that without regular supplies, China's oil reserves could run dry as early as June. The Depth of Chinese Dependency China is currently the...

Chinese President Xi Jinping reiterated his opposition to Taiwanese independence during a meeting with Cheng Li-wun, leader of Taiwan's pro-Beijing opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party. Her official trip to Beijing, the first such visit in a decade, sparked controversy in the self-ruled island that China claims as its territory. Cheng's trip comes a month before US President Donald Trump is scheduled to visit Beijing for a summit with Xi. The United States has been piling pressure on Taiwanese opposition lawmakers to back a proposal for defence purchases, including US weapons, to deter a potential Chinese attack. Cheng has railed against the...

The U.S. intelligence community has eased its assessment of a near-term Chinese invasion of Taiwan, saying Beijing is more likely to pursue control of the island without military force and has no fixed timeline for unification. The updated view marks a shift from earlier warnings that pointed to 2027 as a potential deadline, a scenario that had driven urgency in Washington and Taipei. In its latest threat assessment, officials said Chinese leaders are not planning an invasion within that timeframe. Still, the report underscores China’s broad strategic challenge to the U.S. It describes Beijing as a leading cyber threat, a...

If China invades Taiwan and cuts off its chip exports to American companies, the tech industry and the U.S. economy would be crippled.Federal officials have for years tried to wean Silicon Valley from its dependence on Taiwan, an island democracy roughly the size of Maryland that makes 90 percent of the world’s high-end computer chips. In secret briefings held in Washington and Silicon Valley, national security officials warned executives from companies like Apple, Advanced Micro Devices and Qualcomm that China was making plans to retake Taiwan, which Beijing has long considered a breakaway territory. A Chinese blockade of Taiwan, the...

Tariffs Fall and Investment SurgesTrade shapes power structures, and when two economies tighten bonds, the ripple spreads far beyond shipping lanes and customs desks. On Feb. 12, 2026, the Trump administration finalized a sweeping trade agreement with Taiwan that cuts tariffs, boosts American exports, and pours hundreds of billions into U.S. industry.Taiwan agreed to eliminate or sharply reduce tariffs on nearly all American goods, as duties on U.S. beef, dairy, and corn were reduced immediately to 0%. Pork belly tariffs fell from 40% to 10%, and ham fell from 32% to 10%. Taiwan also removed non-tariff barriers on motor vehicles,...

China has executed four leading members of Myanmar-based scam syndicates, a Chinese court said on Monday (Feb 2), the second such announcement in less than a week as Beijing ramps up a crackdown on cross-border telecom fraud. Fraud compounds where scammers lure internet users into fake romantic relationships and cryptocurrency investments have flourished across Southeast Asia, including in Cambodia and the lawless borderlands of Myanmar. Initially, largely targeting Chinese speakers, the criminal groups behind the compounds have expanded operations into multiple languages to steal billions of dollars from victims around the world.

Taiwan will use a range of joint intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance methods, as well as intelligence-sharing, to "grasp" China's possible intentions, says its defence minister.Taiwan is monitoring what it called "abnormal" changes to China's military leadership after its most senior general was put under investigation, and will not lower its guard as the threat level remains high, the defence minister said on Monday (Jan 26). China announced on Saturday that Zhang Youxia, second-in-command under President Xi Jinping as vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission, and another senior officer, Liu Zhenli, were under investigation ⁠for suspected serious violations of discipline and...

“IN AN UNCERTAIN world, China is the biggest certainty.” So proclaimed a Chinese spokesman in December. Amid a war in Europe, turmoil in the Middle East and America’s rewriting of the geopolitical order, some in the West may be inclined to agree. As The Economist went to press, Britain’s prime minister, Sir Keir Starmer, was visiting China’s president, Xi Jinping, the latest among a series of Western leaders who have headed to Beijing in search of deals and dependability. Yet in recent days politics in China has proved anything but certain. On January 24th the defence ministry said that the...

Researchers in China have revealed a new special-operations drone capable of firing a standard infantry assault rifle with perfect accuracy in controlled live-fire trials. During the test, the weaponized drone hovered about 33 feet above the ground and engaged a target positioned 328 feet away. It fired 20 single shots, striking the mark every time. The target was a human-sized silhouette fitted with a 20-by-20-inch chest board, simulating the vital area of a standing person. According to a peer-reviewed study published on December 9 in the Journal of Gun Launch and Control, the system achieved a 100% hit rate while...

Nicholas Kristof has a column today about China's desire to seize Taiwan and what it might actually do to make that happen. The column opens with a scenario in which China goes all in on a military invasion of the island, including some kind of attack on nearby US bases as a way to hinder our response. But Kristof and the people he's spoken with (he's in Taipei at the moment) don't think that's the most likely scenario.The more likely scenario is going to be something like what China did with Hong Kong. Not an invasion, exactly, but a gradual...

Given all that’s at stake, how would Japan respond in a scenario that could lead to the world’s first great power war since 1945?Imagine this scenario: it’s finally happening. China is moving to take Taiwan by force. Chinese warships are blockading the island of Taiwan and the surrounding area, while missiles and UAVs rain down destruction on the Taiwanese people from above. In this hypothetical scenario, what is Japan doing? This is a question of some urgency for Tokyo these days. For one thing, Japan’s westernmost island is only about 110 kilometers away from Taiwan – much closer than...

The Trump administration announced on Wednesday $11.1 billion in arms sales to Taiwan, the largest ever U.S. weapons package for the island which is under increasing military pressure from China. The Taiwan arms sale announcement is the second under U.S. President Donald Trump's current administration, and comes as Beijing ramps up its military and diplomatic pressure against Taiwan, whose government rejects Beijing's sovereignty claims. The proposed arms sales cover eight items, including HIMARS rocket systems, howitzers, Javelin anti-tank missiles, Altius loitering munition drones and parts for other equipment, Taiwan's defence ministry said in a statement. "The United States continues to...

The world's leading manufacturer of advanced chips is TSMC in Taiwan. Back in 2020, President Trump helped convince TSMC to make a major investment in building chips here in the US, specifically in Arizona.Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company has agreed to build an advanced chip factory in the United States, in a response to the Trump administration’s growing concerns about the security of the global electronics supply chain and its competitive tensions with China.The decision by T.S.M.C., which operates enormous plants in Taiwan to produce chips used in most smartphones and many other devices, was confirmed late Thursday after earlier press...

HSINCHU, Taiwan - Silicon Valley may be the heart of global tech, but its pulse depends on a special kind of lifeblood — high-end microchips — many of which flow out of a science park on Taiwan's west coast. The park has been home to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, or TSMC, since the company's inception nearly four decades ago. It is from this base that TSMC made itself indispensable to modern life; its chips are in everything from cell phones to cars. By some estimates, it produces over 90% of the world's most advanced chips. But the calculus has been...