Posted on 05/02/2025 9:38:05 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
If we learned anything from mainland China's slow-motion take over of Hong Kong, it should be that China has option other than rolling tanks in the streets. In Hong Kong it used legal measures and police action to stop protests and jail activists. Then it threatened everyone into silence and shut down independent news outlets, raiding their offices and jailing publishers. And the bottom line is that freedom from the mainland is now just a memory. Hong Kong's oldest pro-democracy party shut down this month because talk about democracy leads to prison these days.
The Democratic Party, one of the leading voices of opposition in the semi-autonomous city for the past three decades, has started the process of dissolution following recent warnings from Chinese government officials, two of its veteran members told CNN.
“The message was that the party has to be disbanded or there will be consequences,” said one of them, Yeung Sum, a former Democratic Party chairman.
China could pursue a similar approach with Taiwan. It can't literally roll tanks in because there's no bridge connecting Taiwan to the mainland (it's about 80 miles offshore), but it has been building up its coast guard fleet and could use those ships to quarantine the island.
China continues work on seizing the island by force. The recent “Strait Thunder” drills surrounded it with 38 naval ships. Yet China is also rehearsing novel, more severe “grey-zone” tactics that fall short of outright war. Top of the list are temporary quarantines and customs inspections of ships in Taiwanese waters, using China’s vastly expanded coastguard force.
China’s aim would be to undermine Taiwan’s sovereignty and sow doubt among its citizens that America would be able or willing to come to their aid in an invasion. Many private commercial shipping firms might comply with a quarantine. International criticism of one may be less strident, following a Chinese diplomatic campaign since 2023 that has led 70 countries to support “all” efforts at reunification, creating cover for anything from inspections to invasion.
A quarantine would put the US in the awkward position of deciding whether to escalate a possible conflict by running ships through the blockade. That would be a big risk for a Trump administration that prides itself on not starting any new wars. But failing to do so would cede defacto control to mainland China. Once that is established, China can re-run the Hong Kong playbook all over again. New laws demanding patriotism, police action to crush dissent, shutting down all independent voices, etc.
This is how China would prefer to do this for a couple reasons, the most important of which is that it wants control of TSMC, the chipmaking company that produces the most advanced chips in the world. An invasion would be more likely to lead to damage of that infrastructure. But a slow, Hong-Kong-style takeover might allow them to effectively seize control of the world's supply. That's the best case scenario for Xi Jinping and the worst case scenario for the rest of the world.
Part of the problem, according to the Economist, is that Taiwan's politics are fractured at a time when it can't afford them to be.
While few Taiwanese want to be part of a communist-run China, their politics suffers from a toxic blend of polarisation and complacency. Since elections last year, Lai Ching-te, the president, has shared power with a parliament run by the mainland-appeasing KMT and a new third party backed by young Taiwanese disillusioned with the DPP. The resulting gridlock prevents Taiwan from taking decisive measures to raise its defence spending, cut its reliance on imported energy, or prepare for a crisis. Mr Lai’s efforts to crack down on Chinese infiltration have backfired, amplifying polarisation.
...If America weakens its commitment to defending Taiwan, then Taiwan may lose the resolve to resist. And if Taiwan is not prepared to defend itself, America will be less likely to come to its aid. The risk is that this creates a trajectory in which Taiwan gradually comes under China’s sway without a shot being fired.
Meanwhile, it's not just voices inside Taiwan and China that are trying to silence Taiwan's president. Foreign Policy just published a piece arguing that Trump should muzzle Taiwan's president before it's too late.
Today, Taiwan has another hard-charging president, Lai Ching-te. In March, Lai designated China as a “foreign hostile force,” an unprecedented step, and unveiled 17 “proactive measures” to combat Chinese infiltration on the island. Beijing followed up with large military drills simulating a blockade and strikes against Taiwan’s ports and infrastructure.
Washington has rightly denounced China’s military escalations, but it has so far overlooked Lai’s subtler political escalations. The Trump administration should rein in Lai before he mistakes Washington’s passivity for approval and entangles the United States in a potentially calamitous war.
There are plenty of China hawks in the US and the fact that Taiwan produces most of the world's advanced microchips means there is a real US interest in not having it taken over by China. But at some point China is going to force the issue and when it does, it will be up to the President to decide what comes next for Taiwan and the rest of the world.
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For a long time, I have thought that China wouldn’t need to invade Taiwan in order to take it over.
One more time.
Oil is everything. Taiwan has none. It all gets imported.
People do not realize the power of oil. It moves food to store shelves. If the shelves are empty people starve.
The rural folk, maybe. The urban folk absolutely no question.
An embargo of oil coming into Taiwan would generate starvation in the matter of weeks and then surrender. Could the US break the embargo? Yes. But that’s not going to matter.
The ports that offload the oil can be bombed. Wipe them out and oil cannot distribute even if it reaches the port, which it might not. Then of course there is a question of refining.
No, China does not need to invade. China can get Taiwan by having Taiwan ask to surrender.
In the final analysis, frankly, the only impetus towards invasion would be the desire of generals to achieve immortality. To have their big arrows on maps immortalized in histories about their brilliance. But in the world of oil you just don’t have to do that. You can achieve national goals without big arrows.
Or, alternatively, Taiwan could take out the Three Gorges dam and reduce China to economic ashes.
There was no “slow-motion take over of Hong Kong”. UK simply gave it to the chicoms
They were free to clamp down anytime they wanted.
Quarantine aka blockade is an act of war against not only Taiwan but every country that trades with Taiwan.
Sounds like you’re salivating.
Yep. Do not think this is not on the table. Its definitely on the table.
Defending Taiwan from CCP aggression is likely impossible at this point.. they can take control whenever they choose.
Sadly, the smart play for the USA is to develop ASAP chip production capacity here, thus minimizing Taiwan’s importance to our national security. I am confident the Trump administration has already put this strategy on the front burner.
Ironically, Taiwan’s eventual irrelevance to US national security is what might save it - since our dependence on Taiwan for chip production is what makes it both a threat to - and a target rich environment for - the CCP.
I just returned from visiting Taiwan. It’s a beautiful country with great people. It has the quaintness of rural life and the big city convenience of Taipei, a city that never sleeps. The only hitch is it rains 300 days per year.
Taiwan doesn’t have oil, but it used to be Japan’s coal mine. I’m thinking if coal is so plentiful, then there must be a lot of natural gas and oil somewhere. Perhaps it was never pursued.
Beautiful, productive, clean, safe, friendly. Unfortunately, China can ruin all of that over a chip manufacturing facility.
EC
Advanced chips are the new oil, and Taiwan’s TSMC manufactures around 90% of the world’s most advanced chips.
The U.S. simply cannot allow China to take Taiwan before we’ve built enough chip-making capacity at home—and that will take years. Until then, Taiwan’s defense is a core strategic imperative.
Not an expert on that dam, but GPT says it supplies only two to three percent of Chinese electricity.
Taiwan should be sure they are able to destroy the Three Gorges Dam.
That makes them invincible.
True, but 500,000,000 live downstream who would be flooded out, a goodly portion of whom would drown.
40% of China’s GDP would be destroyed.
China’s strategic ability to move anything between the North and South (militarily or industrially) would be largely destroyed.
China built their own Achilles Heel.
China would drain down the dam resevoir to a safe level prior to any military action.
Which act should be considered an act of war, and bombing should commence.
Tough deal, but them’s the breaks.
GPT offers the following estimate:
500,000 dead, possibly up to 2 million of long term effects, not all of which are deaths.
Displacement up to 30 million.
China’s population is (end of 2024) 1.4 billion. So these counts are 2% of the population (the largest 30 million number).
This is why oil overwhelms all issues. You get starvation numbers towards 80% of entire populations, any population, if you can’t move food to shelves. The usual thinking is something like “Oh, F oil. We got along without oil for 1000s of years and we’ll do it again.”
Last time China was getting along without oil (1870ish) the population was about 350 million. So oil provided a X4 since then for them.
US population 38.6 million 1870. 330M today. We had MUCH more oil than China.
Classic layout is NYC. 100,000 horses in 1900. They hauled food in from surrounding farms.
Those farms are now parking lots.
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