Free Republic

One of the few pollsters who accurately predicted that President Donald Trump would win the 2016 presidential election told Newsweek he feels "more confident every day" that Trump will also win his bid for re-election. Key to Trump's path to victory are his "shy" supporters who aren't necessarily telling most pollsters the truth about who they will vote for because of societal pressures that have only grown in the last four years, according to Robert Cahaly, a pollster and senior strategist with the Atlanta-based polling company Trafalgar Group.

Hannity interview of Robert Cahaly (Trafalgar) -- Best pollster from 2016 Hannity asked him about other pollsters who say they have made adjustments since 2016. C: They say they have made adjustments, but the next race we saw that had this "social desirability bias," you know shy voters was the race for Governor of Florida and they all got it wrong again so I don't buy that they've made any adjustments. I'll take Michael Moore's understanding of average people over all those pollsters in a bag every single day. I don't see them understanding people aren't straight forward when it...

Donald Trump has consistently outperformed the polls. That strongly suggests the existence of "shy" Trump voters--people who, for a variety of reasons, are reluctant to tell pollsters or media members of their preference for the prez. But shy BIDEN voters? Why would anyone would be unwilling to tell the liberal-dominated polling industry and media that they're going to vote for Biden? I'd never heard of the possibility of the shy Biden voter -- until tuning into CNN's New Day this morning.[snip] "This in the end, I think, is going to cost the president. And when they . . . look...

Trafalgar Group, a Georgia-based polling firm known for its ability to correctly sample hard-to-reach, conservative Trump voters, shows President Trump with leads in the key battleground states of North Carolina, Florida and Michigan. During the 2016 presidential race — widely predicted wrong by the mainstream polling establishment —the Trafalgar Group was the only pollster within the RealClearPolitics polling aggregator to show candidate Donald Trump defeating rival Hillary Clinton in Michigan. Their polls in 2016 also showed Donald Trump winning Pennsylvania — again, they were nearly alone in projecting Trump's narrow victory there — and thus taking the White House. "Cahaly's...

After 2016, when very few polls and prediction models showed Donald Trump with any substantial chance of winning, denying their accuracy became common. Some reasons for questioning polls are valid. Any number of polls released lately are clearly suppression polls with significant oversampling of Democrats. Despite the top-line results in these polls showing a lead for Joe Biden, some fascinating dynamics regarding enthusiasm for a candidate are not generally highlighted by the corporate media. For months Republicans have shown greater enthusiasm to vote and are more likely to be voting for Donald Trump than against Joe Biden.Democratic Rep. Says She...