Hannity interview of Trafalgar's Cahily

Hannity | 10/30/2020

[Cathi]

Hannity interview of Robert Cahaly (Trafalgar) -- Best pollster from 2016

Hannity asked him about other pollsters who say they have made adjustments since 2016.

C: They say they have made adjustments, but the next race we saw that had this "social desirability bias," you know shy voters was the race for Governor of Florida and they all got it wrong again so I don't buy that they've made any adjustments. I'll take Michael Moore's understanding of average people over all those pollsters in a bag every single day. I don't see them understanding people aren't straight forward when it comes to these polls. They don't understand it...they refuse to understand it and it seems actually logical.

Hannity asked him about the individual states;

C: I think that the states we had before for Trump....Florida, Arizona and North Carolina are still there. I feel like Michigan is a win right now. Pennsylvania he's going to need to get further along than he is. I think he needs to win Pennsylvania by 4 or 5 to overcome the voter fraud that's gonna happen there. Wisconsin is really a toss up right now. Minnesota but for Kanye he would have Minnesota. Kanye is taking up extra space that he needs and Nevada has closed very, very tightly so I think this thing is, there are all the 5 paths to victory once you get passed the sunbelt and they all seem available at this point.

Hannity asks: Florida, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, are they Trump states in your view as of now? Yes and I think that Ohio and Georgia are solid and were never really in play

H: And what about Arizona and Iowa? Arizona I feel great about...Iowa definitely... I think Iowa was never really in play

H: When you say that the president would have to win by 4 or 5 in Pennsylvania because of voter fraud are we talking about Philly? One phenomena that I am seeing in every poll very consistent they are not outliers is that African Americans, Hispanic Americans are going for Donald Trump in almost double or triple the number that he got in 2016. Is that real because the Times/Siena poll had Philadelphia 24% for President Trump.

C: Absolutely we see it across the board the most recent Florida we had him at 27% of the African American vote. The most recent Nevada he was at 20; Michigan I believe 25; North Carolina 26. This is absolutely a phenomenon that had happened in the last 10 days. He's gone from the teens and having quite of few of the black voters moving around between undecided and third party and its all fallen away as I said a few times the shy Trump voters in the black community aren't very shy anymore.

H: Lets talk about younger people which seem to be trending towards the President. They don't seem to be drawn to dark winter doom and gloom and another shut down which Biden will do. How big a factor is that?

C: We're seeing kids who even tell us they are committed liberals who want the shutdowns to end and they're gonna vote for Trump even though they do not like him.

[bray]

Of course Ari Fletcher had to throw cold water on the interview and predict Biden the winner.

[Cathi]

Who goes on TV right before an election and says their candidate is going to lose?

Answer: No one... and Ari didn’t either. He predicted his candidate Biden would win.

[MAGAthon]

a must-watch:

VIDEO: 5m47s: 31 Oct: Yahoo: Fox News: Tucker Carlson: How Big Tech bias could shift 15 million votes in 2020 election
Psychologist Robert Epstein tells ‘Tucker Carlson Tonight’ how social media giants are interfering in the US election
https://news.yahoo.com/big-tech-bias-could-shift-005728714.html

[changeitback440]

typical Bushy pos

[MHT]

Saw that tonight...really scary and depressing...

[PGR88]

I just can’t believe everyone accepts VOTER FRAUD in PA like its just another thing or nuisance that could occur.

Its a cancer. If Americans don’t trust the outcome of elections, then the next step is civil war

[Cathi]

It happens every election and they got away with extending the date for accepting ballots to 9 days after Nov. 3 despite the fact that PA law says ballots must be received by election day.

The U.S. Supreme Court said there wasn’t enough time before the election to rule on this. But, at least they did put into place a procedure that all ballots received after Nov. 3 have to held aside and the court may make a determination after the election.

[conservative98]

Wish you were more supportive of the POTUS on @seanhannity show. I disagree with your prediction that Biden will win.— Brian Justine (@cabanacolonykid) October 31, 2020

He really did say that .. I thought I was hallucinating— serafina fiore (@serafina419) October 31, 2020

Exactly! I just heard Ari tell Hannity that he believed Joe Biden would win the election.Face with rolling eyes

Robert Cahaly, head of the Trafalgar Group, told Hannity Trump would decisively win the election. Cahaly said worst case scenario Trump would win in high 270s...— I’m Your Huckleberry (@RossFairchild) October 31, 2020

@AriFleischer is overrated fox contributor.,adored by Harris Faulkner, for him to think Biden will win is unbelievable ,i choose @dbongino analysis over his https://t.co/3JzBw7rLJ5— Trump Mind (@TrumpMinds) October 31, 2020

Biden is going to win ??? C’mon man.— Mostly Peaceful Fauci 🇺🇸 (@CharleyBarley9) October 31, 2020

[Cathi]

The incredible thing is that he actually said he is a “traditional” type so he is sticking to the polls (meaning the ridiculous mainstream polls that have been consistently wrong for years now.)

If he isn’t capable of understanding polls perhaps he could at least start factoring in actual early voting which has been going GREAT for Trump and the reps all over the country.

Matt Batzel
@MattBatzel
·
1h
Republican Counties in Wisconsin voting Early In Person at much higher rates than Democrat ones:
Waukesha: 39.2%
Washington: 44.8%
Ozaukee: 39.7%
Statewide Average: 31.2%

Milwaukee: 30.4%
Dane: 22%
Democrats really pushed absentee ballots #wiright #maga

Matt Batzel
@MattBatzel
Replying to
@MattBatzel
Data comes from WI elections Commission: https://elections.wi.gov/node/7215

Interesting to see Milwaukee County lagging behind in percent voted compared to 2016 total voted. 64.9%, which is lower than Dane(76.3%), Ozaukee (73%), Waukesha, & Washington (66.6%). Mke turnout in 2016 was low

9:49 PM · Oct 30, 2020·Twitter Web App

Republican Pollster; Partner at Public Opinion Strategies;
Robert Blizzard
@robertblizzard
There’s growing evidence in the EV/AB data Trump may be shifting the composition of the electorate in his favor in some key states. The presidential race, and the battle for the Senate, are much closer now then they were weeks ago, and closer than what the CW would indicate.
1:30 PM · Oct 29, 2020·Twitter Web App

[bray]

NeverTrumpers have to NeverTrump.

The guy lays down all the science he uses to come up with his models and Ari says, I am old fashioned and have to go with the old polls.

Hey Ari, they have been wrong for decades, but you have to stay with the herd since that is where your bread has been buttered for decades.

[Chickensoup]

When the election is over and Trump wins wi am hoping to get the ball rolling on VOTER ID. We will need all of the next four years to get it implemented in time for the next election. It would be a real gift for FREEPERS to give our country and her people.

We need to push it nationally and will need legal and political help.

[rintintin]

“ Of course Ari Fletcher had to throw cold water on the interview and predict Biden the winner.”

Ari was spokesman Gordon George Bush. Remember when so many Freepers practically worshipped George Bush?

[SecAmndmt]

I saw that, and I immediately reminded myself that Ari Fleischer is an arrogant neverTrump neocon Bushie. Someone should ask him if he is voting Trump or someone else.

[jjotto]

Fleischer is publicly supporting Pres. Trump this election.

[SecAmndmt]

He’s lying